The Black Death. The 1918 Flu Pandemic. COVID-19.
Crna smrt. Pandemija gripa 1918. godine. Kovid-19.
We tend to think of these catastrophic, world-changing pandemics as very unlikely events.
Mislimo da su ove katastrofalne pandemije, koje menjaju svet, retki događaji.
But between 1980 and 2020, at least three diseases emerged that caused global pandemics. COVID-19, yes, but also the 2009 swine flu and HIV/AIDS.
Ali između 1980. i 2020, pojavile su se bar tri bolesti koje su izazvale globalnu pandemiju. Kovid-19, ali i svinjski grip i HIV/AIDS 2009.
Disease outbreaks are surprisingly common. Over the past four centuries, the longest stretch of time without a documented outbreak that killed at least 10,000 people was just four years.
Pojave bolesti su iznenađujuće uobičajene. U prošla četiri veka, najduže vreme bez dokumentovane bolesti, koja je ubila najmanje 10 000 ljudi je bilo samo četiri godine.
As bad as these smaller outbreaks are, they’re far less deadly than a COVID-19-level pandemic. In fact, many people born after the 1918 flu lived their entire lives without experiencing a similar world-changing pandemic. What’s the probability that you do, too?
Koliko god bile loše manje pojave bolesti, daleko su manje smrtonosne od kovida-19. U stvari, mnogi ljudi rođeni nakon 1918. i epidemije gripa, živeli su ceo život bez slične pandemije koja menja svet. Koja je verovatnoća da i vi doživite isto?
There are several ways to answer this question.
Postoji nekoliko načina da se odgovori.
You could look at history. A team of scientists and engineers who took this approach catalogued all documented epidemics and pandemics between 1600 and 1950. They used that data to do two things. First, to graph the likelihood that an outbreak of any size pops up somewhere in the world over a set period of time. And second, to estimate the likelihood that that outbreak would get large enough to kill a certain percentage of the world's population. This graph shows that while huge pandemics are unlikely, they're not that unlikely. The team used these two distributions to estimate that the risk of a COVID-19-level pandemic is about 0.5% per year, and could be as high as 1.4% if new diseases emerge more frequently in the future.
Možete pogledati u istoriju. Tim naučnika i inženjera sa ovim pristupom zabeležio je sve epidemije i pandemije između 1600. i 1950. Iskoristili su ove podatke za dve stvari. Prvo, da naprave grafik verovatnoće da će izbiti bolest bilo kojih razmera igde u svetu za dato vreme. I drugo, da procene verovatnoću da će izbiti bolest dovoljno raširena da ubije određeni procenat svetske populacije. Grafik kaže da, iako su ogromne pandemije retke, nisu toliko retke. Tim je iskoristio ove dve podele da proceni da je rizik od pandemije razmera kovida-19 oko 0,5% godišnje, i može ići do 1,4%, ako se nove bolesti budu pojavljivale češće u budućnosti.
And we’ll come back to those numbers, but first, let’s look at another way to estimate the likelihood of a future pandemic: modeling one from the ground up.
I vratićemo se tim brojevima, ali prvo, da pogledamo drugi način za procenu rizika sledeće pandemije: praveći tabelu od nule.
For most pandemics to happen, a pathogen, which is a microbe that can cause disease, has to spill over from its normal host by making contact with and infecting a human. Then, the pathogen has to spread widely, crossing international boundaries and infecting lots of people. Many variables determine whether a given spillover event becomes a pandemic. For example, the type of pathogen, how often humans come into close contact with its animal reservoir, existing immunity, and so on.
Da bi se većina pandemija desila, patogen, koji je mikrob koji može izazvati bolest, mora da pređe sa normalnog domaćina na čoveka kontaktom koji ga inficira. Onda, patogen mora da se širi okolo, da pređe dežavne granice i inficira puno ljudi. Mnogi faktori utiču na to da li će prvi prelaz postati pandemija. Na primer, vrsta patogena, učestalost bliskog kontakta ljudi sa životinjskim rezervoarom, imunitet itd.
Viruses are prime candidates to cause the next big pandemic. Scientists estimate that there are about 1.7 million as-yet-undiscovered viruses that currently infect mammals and birds, and that roughly 40% of these have the potential to spill over and infect humans.
Virusi su primarni kandidati da izazovu sledeću veliku pandemiju. Naučnici procenjuju da postoji 1,7 miliona neotkrivenih virusa koji trenutno napadaju sisare i ptice, a oko 40% njih ima potencijal da pređe na ljude i zarazi ih.
A team of scientists built a model using this information, as well as data about the global population, air travel networks, how people move around in communities, country preparedness levels, and how people might respond to pandemics. The model generated hundreds of thousands of virtual pandemics. The scientists then used this catalog to estimate that the probability of another COVID-19-level pandemic is 2.5 to 3.3% per year.
Tim naučnika napravio je model koristeći ovu informaciju, kao i podatke o globalnoj populaciji, mreži avio letova, kako se ljudi kreću u zajednicama, spremnost države i kako bi ljudi mogli da reaguju na pandemiju. Model je generisao stotine hiljada virtuelnih pandemija. Naučnici su onda iskoristili ovaj katalog da procene da je verovatnoća sledeće pandemije u razmerama kovida-19 od 2,5 do 3,3 procenta godišnje.
To get a sense of how these risks play out over a lifetime, let’s pick a value roughly in the middle of all these estimates: 2%. Now let’s build what’s called a probability tree diagram to model all possible scenarios. The first branch of the tree represents the first year: there’s a 2% probability of experiencing a COVID-19-level pandemic, which means there’s a 98% probability of not experiencing one. Second branch, same thing, Third branch, same. And so on, 72 more times. There is only one path that results in a fully pandemic-free lifetime: 98%, or 0.98, multiplied by itself 75 times, which comes out to roughly 22%. So the likelihood of living through at least one more COVID 19-level-pandemic in the next 75 years is 100 minus 22%, or 78%.
Da steknete utisak kako to izgleda tokom životnog veka, izabraćemo srednju vrednost svih ovih procena: 2%. Sad ćemo napraviti takozvani razgranati dijagram verovatnoće da bismo oponašali sva moguća scenarija. Prva grana predstavlja prvu godinu: verovatnoća je 2% za izbijanje pandemije nalik kovidu-19, što znači da je 98% verovatnoće da neće izbiti. Druga grana, ista stvar, Treća, ista. I tako dalje, još 72 puta. Samo je jedna staza koja rezultira životnim dobom bez pandemije: 98% ili 0,98, pomnoženo sobom 75 puta, a to je otprilike 22%. Tako da je verovatnoća da doživite bar još jednu pandemiju nalik kovidu-19 u sledećih 75 godina, 100 minus 22% ili 78%.
78%!
78%!
If we use the most optimistic yearly estimate— 0.5%— the lifetime probability drops to 31%. If we use the most pessimistic one, it jumps to 92%.
Ako koristimo najoptimističniju godišnju procenu - 0,5% - verovatnoća u toku života opada na 31%. Ako koristimo najpesimističniju, raste na 92%.
Even 31% is too high to ignore; even if we get lucky, future generations might not. Also, pandemics are usually random, independent events: so even if the yearly probability of a COVID-19-level pandemic is 1%, we could absolutely get another one in ten years.
Čak je i 31% previše za ignorisanje; čak i da nam se posreći, sledećim generacijama možda neće. Takođe, pandemije su uobičajeno nasumični, nezavisni događaji: pa čak i ako je godišnja verovatnoća za pandemiju nalik kovidu-19 jedan posto, sasvim sigurno bismo mogli imati još jednu za 10 godina.
The good news is we now have tools that make pandemics less destructive.
Dobre vesti su što sada imamo alate
Scientists estimated that early warning systems, contact tracing, social distancing, and other public health measures saved over a million lives in just the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, not to mention the millions of lives saved by vaccines.
koji čine pandemiju manje destruktivnom. Naučnici su procenili da su sistemi ranog upozovanja, praćenje kontakata, socijalna distanca i ostale mere javnog zdravlja spasili preko milion života samo u prvih šest meseci pandemije kovid-19 u SAD-u, ne spominjući milione života spasenih vakcinama.
One day, another pandemic will sweep the globe. But we can work to make that day less likely to be tomorrow. We can reduce the risk of spillover events, and we can contain spillovers that do happen so they don’t become full-blown pandemics. Imagine how the future might look if we interacted with the animal world more carefully, and if we had well-funded, open-access global disease monitoring programs,
Jednog dana, još jedna pandemija će protutnjati zemljinom kuglom. Ali možemo da radimo na tome da taj dan manje verovatno bude sutra. Možemo da smanjimo rizik od prenošenja, i možemo zadržati prenose koji se dese kako ne bi postali u potpunosti razvijena pandemija. Zamislite kako bi budućnost izgledala kad bismo postupali sa životinjama opreznije, i kad bismo imali dobro finansirane,
AI-powered contact tracing and isolation measures, universal vaccines, next-generation antiviral drugs, and other tech we haven't even thought of.
globalne sisteme za praćenje bolesti. Veštačku inteligenciju za praćenje kontakata i izolacione mere, univerzalne vakcine, antivirusne lekove nove generacije
It’s in our power to change these probabilities.
i ostalu tehnologiju koje se još nismo ni setili.
So, we have a choice: we could do nothing and hope we get lucky. Or we could take the threat seriously enough that it becomes a self-defeating prophecy.
U našoj moći je da promenimo ove verovatnoće. Imamo izbor: možemo da ne radimo ništa i da se nadamo da će nam se posrećiti. Ili da pretnju shvatimo ozbiljno kako bi postala samoporažavajuće proročanstvo.
Which future would you rather live in?
U kojoj budućnosti biste radije živeli?