When the Portuguese arrived in Latin America about 500 years ago, they obviously found this amazing tropical forest. And among all this biodiversity that they had never seen before, they found one species that caught their attention very quickly. This species, when you cut the bark, you find a very dark red resin that was very good to paint and dye fabric to make clothes. The indigenous people called this species pau brasil, and that's the reason why this land became "land of Brasil," and later on, Brazil. That's the only country in the world that has the name of a tree. So you can imagine that it's very cool to be a forester in Brazil, among other reasons.
当葡萄牙人在 500 年前 到达拉丁美洲大陆时, 很显然,他们发现了 这片神奇的热带雨林。 在他们从未见过的多样化生物中, 有一种生物很快引起了他们的注意。 这种生物,当你切开它的树皮, 就会发现一种暗红色的树脂。 它是制作布料染色剂的上佳原料。 土著叫它“巴西木”, 这也是为何这片地方成为“巴西之地”, 也就是后来的“巴西”。 “巴西”成为了世界上 唯一一个以树为名的国家。 你可以想象,在巴西, 做一个护林员是很拉风的, 这只是众多原因之一。
Forest products are all around us. Apart from all those products, the forest is very important for climate regulation. In Brazil, almost 70 percent of the evaporation that makes rain actually comes from the forest. Just the Amazon pumps to the atmosphere 20 billion tons of water every day. This is more than what the Amazon River, which is the largest river in the world, puts in the sea per day, which is 17 billion tons. If we had to boil water to get the same effect as evapotranspiration, we would need six months of the entire power generation capacity of the world. So it's a hell of a service for all of us.
林产品在我们周围随处可见。 除了这些产品,森林对气候调节 起到非常重要的作用。 在巴西,构成雨的70%的水蒸气 实际上来自于森林。 仅亚马逊雨林就每天 向大气蒸发200亿吨水。 这比亚马逊河,世界上最大的河, 每天注入大海的 170 亿吨水还要多, 如果我们需要通过烧水 来达到同样的蒸发量, 我们需要六个月的全球发电总量。 所以森林为我们立下了汗马功劳。
We have in the world about four billion hectares of forests. This is more or less China, U.S., Canada and Brazil all together, in terms of size, to have an idea. Three quarters of that is in the temperate zone, and just one quarter is in the tropics, but this one quarter, one billion hectares, holds most of the biodiversity, and very importantly, 50 percent of the living biomass, the carbon. Now, we used to have six billion hectares of forest -- 50 percent more than what we have -- 2,000 years ago. We've actually lost two billion hectares in the last 2,000 years. But in the last 100 years, we lost half of that. That was when we shifted from deforestation of temperate forests to deforestation of tropical forests.
全世界大概有四十亿公顷森林。 这大概是中国、美国、 加拿大和巴西的面积总和, 基本上是这么个概念。 其中四分之三是在温带, 仅仅四分之一在热带。 但就是这四分之一,十亿公顷, 拥有着最丰富的生物多样性, 非常重要的是,这片区域拥有 高达 50% 的生物质能,即“碳”。 我们曾有 60 亿公顷的森林, 比我们现在多 50% — 但那是在 2000 年以前。 在过去的 2000 年里, 我们总共失去了 20 亿公顷森林。 但是在最近的 100 年里, 我们失去了其中的一半。 那正是当我们将森林砍伐 从温带转移至热带。
So think of this: In 100 years, we lost the same amount of forest in the tropics that we lost in 2,000 years in temperate forests. That's the speed of the destruction that we are having.
大家想一想:在 100 年里, 我们所失去的热带森林总量 跟我们在 2000 年里 失去的温带森林一样多。 这就是我们破坏环境的速度。
Now, Brazil is an important piece of this puzzle. We have the second largest forest in the world, just after Russia. It means 12 percent of all the world's forests are in Brazil, most of that in the Amazon. It's the largest piece of forest we have. It's a very big, large area. You can see that you could fit many of the European countries there. We still have 80 percent of the forest cover. That's the good news. But we lost 15 percent in just 30 years. So if you go with that speed, very soon, we will loose this powerful pump that we have in the Amazon that regulates our climate.
现在,巴西是解决 这个问题关键的一环。 我们有仅次于俄罗斯的 第二大森林覆盖率, 这意味着全世界 12% 的森林都在巴西, 而这些绝大部分在亚马逊地区。 这是我们所拥有的最广的森林, 是一片非常广阔的区域。 你可以把很多欧洲国家塞进这里来。 我们仍有80%的森林覆盖率。 这是个好消息。 但是在过去 30 年里, 我们失去了其中的 15%。 按照个速度,用不了不久, 我们就会失去亚马逊 这个气候调节的天然泵。 在 90 年代末、2000 年初, 森林破坏的速度很快并且在加速。
Deforestation was growing fast and accelerating at the end of the '90s and the beginning of the 2000s. (Chainsaw sound) (Sound of falling tree) Twenty-seven thousand square kilometers in one year. This is 2.7 million hectares. It's almost like half of Costa Rica every year.
(锯子声) (树倒下的声音) 每年27000平方公里, 也就是270万公顷。 相当于每年失去半个 哥斯达黎加这么大的森林。
So at this moment -- this is 2003, 2004 -- I happened to be coming to work in the government. And together with other teammates in the National Forest Department, we were assigned a task to join a team and find out the causes of deforestation, and make a plan to combat that at a national level, involving the local governments, the civil society, business, local communities, in an effort that could tackle those causes.
在这个时候 — 这是2003、2004 — 我碰巧开始在政府就职。 我与其他国家林业部的队友一起, 被分配到一个小组 去探究森林破坏的原因, 并且制定一个全国性的 战略改革计划, 在当地政、民间组织、 商业团体、地方社区的 共同努力解决这些问题。
So we came up with this plan with 144 actions in different areas. Now I will go through all of them one by one -- no, just giving some examples of what we had done in the next few years. So the first thing, we set up a system with the national space agency that could actually see where deforestation is happening, almost in real time. So now in Brazil, we have this system, DETER, where every month, or every two months, we get information on where deforestation is happening so we can actually act when it's happening. And all the information is fully transparent so others can replicate that in independent systems. This allows us, among other things, to apprehend 1.4 million cubic meters of logs that were illegally taken. Part of that we saw and sell, and all the revenue becomes a fund that now funds conservation projects of local communities as an endowment fund. This also allows us to make a big operation to seize corruption and illegal activities that ended up having 700 people in prison, including a lot of public servants. Then we made the connection that areas that have been doing illegal deforestation should not get any kind of credit or finance. So we cut this through the bank system and then linked this to the end users. So supermarkets, the slaughterhouses, and so on that buy products from illegal clear-cut areas, they also can be liable for the deforestation. So making all these connections to help to push the problem down. And also we work a lot on land tenure issues. It's very important for conflicts. Fifty million hectares of protected areas were created, which is an area the size of Spain. And of those, eight million were indigenous lands.
我们在不同层面上 提出了144条方案。 现在我逐一讲解 — 开玩笑,只是举例说说 我们之后几年的一些举措。 首先,我们同国家航天局 建立了一个系统, 可以监测到哪里的森林正在破坏, 几乎是实时的。 现在在巴西,我们有DETER系统, 每个月,或者每两个月, 我们得到森林破坏情况的数据, 从而在破坏发生时做出即时反应。 这些信息全部是公开透明的, 所以其他人可以将信息 重复利用到其他独立系统。 这让我们得以扣押通过非法途径 采伐的140万立方米木料。 其中的一部分我们锯开售卖, 全部收入归入一个基金, 用于资助当地保护项目。 这使得我们有更大的行动力, 来缉获腐败和违法行为, 直接导致700人入狱, 甚至包括不少公职人员。 接下来,通过连带关系, 我们使非法开采的地区 无法得到信贷和财政资助。 我们越过银行系统与终端用户相连。 超市,屠宰场,等等。 只要向保护区购买林产品, 它们也会被追责。 所以连带追责对问题的改善 起到了一定效果。 同时我们在土地使用权的问题上 采取了很多工作。 这对解决争端意义重大。 我们创造了 5000 万公顷的保护用地, 大约是一个西班牙的面积。 其中 800 万公顷是土著土地。
Now we start to see results. So in the last 10 years, deforestation came down in Brazil 75 percent.
我们看到一些成效。 过去的十年里, 巴西的森林退化减低了75%。
(Applause)
(掌声)
So if we compare it with the average deforestation that we had in the last decade, we saved 8.7 million hectares, which is the size of Austria. But more importantly, it avoided the emission of three billion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere. This is by far the largest contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, until today, as a positive action. One may think that when you do these kinds of actions to decrease, to push down deforestation, you will have an economic impact because you will not have economic activity or something like that. But it's interesting to know that it's quite the opposite. In fact, in the period when we have the deepest decline of deforestation, the economy grew, on average, double from the previous decade, when deforestation was actually going up. So it's a good lesson for us. Maybe this is completely disconnected, as we just learned by having deforestation come down.
如果把平均退化率的数值 跟过去十年进行比较的话, 我们保护了870万公顷的森林, 相当于奥地利的面积。 更重要的是,这减少了大气中 30 亿吨二氧化碳排放量。 这是至今为止对于温室气体减排 起到积极效应的一个最重要的举措。 有人担忧,当我们采取这些 减少和遏制采伐的措施时, 经济会受到影响。 因为你将无法开展一些经济活动。 但有意思的是,事实恰恰相反。 在这段采伐下降最严重的时期, 经济增长平均达到了过去十年的一倍。 这给我们上了一课。 或许它们毫无关联, 恰巧发生在采伐量下降的时期。
Now this is all good news, and it's quite an achievement, and we obviously should be very proud about that. But it's not even close to sufficient. In fact, if you think about the deforestation in the Amazon in 2013, that was over half a million hectares, which means that every minute, an area the size of two soccer fields is being cut in the Amazon last year, just last year. If we sum up the deforestation we have in the other biomes in Brazil, we are talking about still the largest deforestation rate in the world. It's more or less like we are forest heroes, but still deforestation champions. So we can't be satisfied, not even close to satisfied. So the next step, I think, is to fight to have zero loss of forest cover in Brazil and to have that as a goal for 2020. That's our next step.
目前全都是好消息、大成就, 我们当然引以为豪。 但这还远远不够。 事实上,当你想想亚马逊 2013 年的砍伐量, 就有超过50万公顷。 这意味着每一分钟, 就有两片足球场大小的森林遭到破坏, 去年,就在去年。 如果把巴西其他生态群落的 砍伐量相加, 我们得到的还是全世界 最大的森林破坏率。 这大概是说,我们既是森林的守护神, 同时又是森林的刽子手。 所以我们不敢自满,远不能自满。 下一阶段,我认为, 是争取在2020年, 达到巴西境内森林零砍伐。 这是我们的下一个目标。 现在我一直着迷于这种 气候改变与森林间的关系。
Now I've always been interested in the relationship between climate change and forests. First, because 15 percent of greenhouse gas emissions come from deforestation, so it's a big part of the problem. But also, forests can be a big part of the solution since that's the best way we know to sink, capture and store carbon. Now, there is another relationship of climate and forests that really stuck me in 2008 and made me change my career from forests to working with climate change. I went to visit Canada, in British Columbia, together with the chiefs of the forest services of other countries that we have a kind of alliance of them, like Canada, Russia, India, China, U.S. And when we were there we learned about this pine beetle that is literally eating the forests in Canada. What we see here, those brown trees, these are really dead trees. They are standing dead trees because of the larvae of the beetle. What happens is that this beetle is controlled by the cold weather in the winter. For many years now, they don't have the sufficient cold weather to actually control the population of this beetle. And it became a disease that is really killing billions of trees. So I came back with this notion that the forest is actually one of the earliest and most affected victims of climate change.
首先,因为 15% 的温室 气体排放来源于森林砍伐, 所以这是问题的一个重要部分。 但同时,森林也是解决方案的 一个重要部分, 正因我们所知的最有效的 解决方案就是沉积、捕捉、储存碳。 气候和森林之间还有一种关系, 它在 2008 年引起我深思, 并因此让我的职业生涯 从森林转向为气候变化。 我去访问了加拿大,在英属哥伦比亚, 同行的还有其他同盟国的 林业部门长官, 比如加拿大、俄罗斯、印度、中国、美国。 在那里,我们认识了啃噬 加拿大森林的松树甲虫。 我们在这看到的, 这些棕黄色的都已经枯死。 这都归罪于松树甲虫的幼虫。 事实是这些甲虫 受冬季寒冷的天气控制。 在多年里,我们都没有够多的寒冬 来控制甲虫的数量。 然而这衍生为一种病害, 数亿植株遭到灭顶之灾。 所以回来以后,我产生了一个概念: 森林事实上是气候改变的 最初受害者之一。 我想,如果我能与同僚们 成功地抑制森林退化,
So I was thinking, if I succeed in working with all my colleagues to actually help to stop deforestation, maybe we will lose the battle later on for climate change by floods, heat, fires and so on. So I decided to leave the forest service and start to work directly on climate change, find a way to think and understand the challenge, and go from there.
或许今后我们也将在气候改变的对决中 成为洪水、炎热、烈火等 其他灾害的手下败将。 所以我决定离开林业局, 直接致力于气候改变的工作, 找到一种方式来思考和理解 所面临的挑战,并从此出发。
Now, the challenge of climate change is pretty straightforward. The goal is very clear. We want to limit the increase of the average temperature of the planet to two degrees. There are several reasons for that. I will not get into that now. But in order to get to this limit of two degrees, which is possible for us to survive, the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, defines that we have a budget of emissions of 1,000 billion tons of CO2 from now until the end of the century. So if we divide this by the number of years, what we have is an average budget of 11 billion tons of CO2 per year. Now what is one ton of CO2? It's more or less what one small car, running 20 kilometers a day, will emit in one year. Or it's one flight, one way, from São Paulo to Johannesburg or to London, one way. Two ways, two tons. So 11 billion tons is twice that.
现在,气候改变的挑战非常明了。 目标是明确的。 我们希望全球平均气温的升高 控制在 2℃ 之内。 有诸多原因, 我现在先不详谈。 但为了得到这 2℃ 的限制 — 也就为我们赢得了生存空间, IPCC — 政府间气候变化专门委员会, 限定说到本世纪末,二氧化碳排放量 配额是 10000 亿吨。 将这个配额分配到每年的话, 我们平均每年可以排放 110 亿的二氧化碳。 一吨的二氧化碳有多少呢? 如果一辆小车每天开 20 公里, 差不多累积一年的排放量。 或者是一趟航班, 单程从圣保罗飞往约翰内斯堡或伦敦, 单程的排放量。 往返就是两吨。 110亿吨是我们当下 每年排放量的两倍, 我们当今的排放量500亿吨, 还在持续增长。
Now the emissions today are 50 billion tons, and it's growing. It's growing and maybe it will be 61 by 2020. Now we need to go down to 10 by 2050. And while this happens, the population will grow from seven to nine billion people, the economy will grow from 60 trillion dollars in 2010 to 200 trillion dollars. And so what we need to do is to be much more efficient in a way that we can go from seven tons of carbon per capita per person, per year, into something like one. You have to choose. You take the airplane or you have a car.
可能在 2020 年达到 610 亿吨。 我们需要在 2050 年前 把它降低到 100 亿。 与此同时, 全球人口将从现在的 70 亿 增长到 90 亿, 经济规模将从 2010 年的 60 兆增长到 200 兆。 所以我们需要更有效率地 把人均二氧化碳排放量从 7 吨 降低到每人、每年差不多 1 吨。 我们必须做出选择。 你是搭乘飞机呢,还是拥有汽车。
So the question is, can we make it? And that's the exactly the same question I got when I was developing a plan to combat deforestation. It's such a big problem, so complex. Can we really do it? I think so. Think of this: Deforestation means 60 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil in the last decade. Now it's a little bit less than 30 percent. In the world, 60 percent is energy. So if we can tackle directly the energy, the same way we could tackle deforestation, maybe we can have a chance.
问题来了,我们能够做到吗? 这也是我在森林退化研究里 碰到的一个同样的问题。 问题如此庞大,如此复杂。 我们可以做到吗? 我觉得可以。 试想,森林退化造成了着过去十年里 巴西 60% 的温室气体排放。 这个数字如今不到 30% 。 当今世界,60% 多的排放来自能源。 如果我们直接从能源入手, 就用我们解决森林退化的手段, 可能值得一试。 所以我们可以做的有五点:
So there are five things that I think we should do. First, we need to disconnect development from carbon emissions. We don't need to clear-cut all the forests to actually get more jobs and agriculture and have more economy. That's what we proved when we decreased deforestation and the economy continued to grow. Same thing could happen in the energy sector. Second, we have to move the incentives to the right place. Today, 500 billion dollars a year goes into subsidies for fossil fuels. Why don't we put a price on carbon and transfer this to the renewable energy? Third, we need to measure and make it transparent where, when and who is emitting greenhouse gases so we can have actions specifically for each one of those opportunities. Fourth, we need to leapfrog the routes of development, which means, you don't need to go to the landline telephone before you get to the mobile phones. Same way we don't need to go to fossil fuels to the one billion people who don't have access to energy before we get to the clean energy. And fifth and last, we need to share responsibility between governments, business and civil society. There is work to do for everybody, and we need to have everybody on board.
首先,我们需要把发展 从碳排放中脱离出来。 我们并不需要通过砍伐森林 来创造工作、农业或者商业利益。 我们在降低森林砍伐率的同时 就已经证明了经济可以持续增长。 能源方面也是如此。 第二,我们必须在正确的地方 给予奖励引导。 今天,每年有 5 千亿元 被用于对化石燃料的补贴。 为什么不在碳上涨价, 贴补给可再生能源? 第三,我们需要监测并发布 谁在何时何地排放了温室气体, 我们得以有针对性地 对每一次行为作出反应。 第四,我们需要跳跃式发展前进, 这意味着,我们不必在得到手机前 一定先装个固定电话。 同样,我们也不必让 10 亿人口 必须先依赖于化石燃料。 才能享用清洁能源。 第五点,也是最后一点, 我们需要和不同的政府、 商业、民政组织分担责任。 每个人都肩负使命, 我们需要大家携手前行。
So to finalize, I think the future is not like a fate that you have to just go as business as usual goes. We need to have the courage to actually change the route, invest in something new, think that we can actually change the route. I think we are doing this with deforestation in Brazil, and I hope we can do it also with climate change in the world.
最后,我相信未来并非一场宿命, 一场商业世界你不得不遵循的宿命。 我们需要勇气打破常规, 拥抱新的理念, 我们需要认识到 我们有能力改变常规。 在解决巴西森林退化的问题上, 我认为我们已经做到了。 我希望应对全球气候变化的挑战, 我们也能办到。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)