If you haven't ordered yet, I generally find the rigatoni with the spicy tomato sauce goes best with diseases of the small intestine.
Ako još niste naručili, općenito mislim kako rigatoni s ljutim umakom od rajčice idu najbolje s bolestima tankog crijeva.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
So, sorry -- it just feels like I should be doing stand-up up here because of the setting. No, what I want to do is take you back to 1854 in London for the next few minutes, and tell the story -- in brief -- of this outbreak, which in many ways, I think, helped create the world that we live in today, and particularly the kind of city that we live in today. This period in 1854, in the middle part of the 19th century, in London's history, is incredibly interesting for a number of reasons. But I think the most important one is that London was this city of 2.5 million people, and it was the largest city on the face of the planet at that point. But it was also the largest city that had ever been built.
Pa, oprostite -- osjeća se kako bih ovdje trebao izvoditi komediju s nogu zbog dekoracije. Ne, ono što želim učiniti jest vratiti vas u 1854. u Londonu sljedećih nekoliko minuta, i ispričati priču -- ukratko -- o toj pojavi, koja je na puno načina, mislim, pomogla stvoriti svijet u kojem danas živimo, i naročito vrstu grada u kakvom danas živimo. Ovo razdoblje 1854., sredinom 19. stoljeća, u povijesti Londona, nevjerojatno je zanimljivo iz puno razloga. No mislim kako je najvažniji taj da je London bio grad s 2,5 milijuna stanovnika, i bio je najveći grad na Planetu u tom trenutku. Ali je također bio najveći grad ikad izgrađen.
And so the Victorians were trying to live through and simultaneously invent a whole new scale of living: this scale of living that we, you know, now call "metropolitan living." And it was in many ways, at this point in the mid-1850s, a complete disaster. They were basically a city living with a modern kind of industrial metropolis with an Elizabethan public infrastructure. So people, for instance, just to gross you out for a second, had cesspools of human waste in their basement. Like, a foot to two feet deep. And they would just kind of throw the buckets down there and hope that it would somehow go away, and of course it never really would go away. And all of this stuff, basically, had accumulated to the point where the city was incredibly offensive to just walk around in.
I tako su se Viktorijanci trudili da prežive i istovremeno izmisle cijelo novo mjerilo življenja: mjerilo življenja koje mi, znate, danas zovemo "životom u metropoli". I bilo je na puno načina, u tom trenutku sredinom 1850-ih, totalna katastrofa. U biti je to bio grad koji je živio s modernom vrstom industrijskog metropolisa s elizabetanskom javnom infrastrukturom. Ljudi su na primjer, samo da vas užasnem na trenutak, imali jame s ljudskim otpadom u podrumu. Duboke 30 do 60 centimetara. I samo bi bacali vjedra dolje i nadali se da će nekako otići, i, naravno, nikud ne bi stvarno otišlo. I sve se to u osnovi gomilalo do točke kada je gradom bilo nevjerojatno neugodno samo hodati.
It was an amazingly smelly city. Not just because of the cesspools, but also the sheer number of livestock in the city would shock people. Not just the horses, but people had cows in their attics that they would use for milk, that they would hoist up there and keep them in the attic until literally their milk ran out and they died, and then they would drag them off to the bone boilers down the street. So, you would just walk around London at this point and just be overwhelmed with this stench. And what ended up happening is that an entire emerging public health system became convinced that it was the smell that was killing everybody, that was creating these diseases that would wipe through the city every three or four years. And cholera was really the great killer of this period.
Bio je to iznenađujuće smrdljiv grad. Ne samo zbog jama, već također zbog samog broja stoke u gradu koji bi šokirao ljude. Osim konja, ljudi su imali krave na svojim tavanima koje su muzli, koje bi digli tamo i držali na tavanima sve dok doslovno ne bi prestale davati mlijeko i uginule, i tad bi ih odvukli do kotlova za kuhanje kostiju dolje niz ulicu. Dakle, samo bi hodali Londonom u to vrijeme i smrad bi vas naprosto savladao. Na kraju je cijeli javni zdravstveni sustav u nastajanju postao uvjeren kako upravo smrad ubija sve, uzrokuje te bolesti koje bi ubijale po gradu svake tri do četiri godine. A kolera je doista bila veliki ubojica tog razdoblja.
It arrived in London in 1832, and every four or five years another epidemic would take 10,000, 20,000 people in London and throughout the U.K. And so the authorities became convinced that this smell was this problem. We had to get rid of the smell. And so, in fact, they concocted a couple of early, you know, founding public-health interventions in the system of the city, one of which was called the "Nuisances Act," which they got everybody as far as they could to empty out their cesspools and just pour all that waste into the river. Because if we get it out of the streets, it'll smell much better, and -- oh right, we drink from the river. So what ended up happening, actually, is they ended up increasing the outbreaks of cholera because, as we now know, cholera is actually in the water. It's a waterborne disease, not something that's in the air. It's not something you smell or inhale; it's something you ingest.
Došla je u London 1832., i svake četiri do pet godina druga epidemija bi uzela 10.000, 20.000 ljudi u Londonu i diljem Velike Britanije. I tako su vlasti postale uvjerene kako je taj smrad problem. Moramo se riješiti smrada. I tako su, ustvari, smislili par ranih, znate, temeljnih javnozdravstvenih zahvata u sustav grada, od kojih se jedan zvao "Uredba o javnom redu", kojom su prisilili sve koliko su najviše mogli da isprazne svoje jame i jednostavno izliju sav taj otpad u rijeku. Zato jer će, ako ga uklonimo s ulica, mirišati puno bolje, i jer -- oh, točno, pijemo iz rijeke. Ono što se na kraju dogodilo, ustvari, jest da su pojave kolere učestale zato što je, kako sad znamo, kolera zapravo u vodi. To je bolest koja se prenosi vodom, a ne nešto što je u zraku. Nije nešto što mirišete ili inhalirate; to je nešto što gutate.
And so one of the founding moments of public health in the 19th century effectively poisoned the water supply of London much more effectively than any modern day bioterrorist could have ever dreamed of doing. So this was the state of London in 1854, and in the middle of all this carnage and offensive conditions, and in the midst of all this scientific confusion about what was actually killing people, it was a very talented classic 19th century multi-disciplinarian named John Snow, who was a local doctor in Soho in London, who had been arguing for about four or five years that cholera was, in fact, a waterborne disease, and had basically convinced nobody of this. The public health authorities had largely ignored what he had to say. And he'd made the case in a number of papers and done a number of studies, but nothing had really stuck. And part of -- what's so interesting about this story to me is that in some ways, it's a great case study in how cultural change happens, how a good idea eventually comes to win out over much worse ideas. And Snow labored for a long time with this great insight that everybody ignored.
I tako je jedna od temeljnih vrijednosti javnog zdravstva 19. stoljeća učinkovito otrovala vodnu zalihu Londona puno efikasnije nego bi bilo koji suvremeni bioterorist ikad mogao sanjati da može. Ovo je bilo stanje Londona 1854., i usred svog tog pokolja i neugodnih uvjeta, i usred sve te znanstvene smetenosti o tome što je u stvari ubijalo ljude, našao se John Snow, znanstvenik vrlo talentiran u mnogim disciplinama klasičnog 19. st., lokalni liječnik u Sohou u Londonu, koji je tvrdio oko četiri ili pet godina kako je kolera, u biti, bolest koja se prenosi vodom, i koji ustvari nikoga nije uvjerio u to. Organi javnog zdravstva uglavnom su ignorirali što je govorio. Bio je u pravu u brojnim radovima i napravio je brojna ispitivanja, no ništa nije ostavilo traga. I dijelom je to -- što mi je tako zanimljivo u ovoj priči na neki način, sjajan primjer o tome kako su se dogodile kulturalne promjene, kako dobra ideja na kraju pobjeđuje puno gore ideje. I Snow je dugo radio na toj sjajnoj ideji koju su svi ignorirali.
And then on one day, August 28th of 1854, a young child, a five-month-old girl whose first name we don't know, we know her only as Baby Lewis, somehow contracted cholera, came down with cholera at 40 Broad Street. You can't really see it in this map, but this is the map that becomes the central focus in the second half of my book. It's in the middle of Soho, in this working class neighborhood, this little girl becomes sick and it turns out that the cesspool, that they still continue to have, despite the Nuisances Act, bordered on an extremely popular water pump, local watering hole that was well known for the best water in all of Soho, that all the residents from Soho and the surrounding neighborhoods would go to.
I onda se jednog dana, 28. kolovoza 1854., malo dijete, petomjesečna djevojčica čije ime ne znamo, znamo je samo kao Beba Lewis, nekako zarazila kolerom, oboljela od kolere na Broad Streetu br. 40. Zapravo ga ne možete vidjeti na ovoj karti, ali ovo je karta koja dolazi u središte pažnje u drugoj polovici moje knjige. Nalazi se u sredini Sohoa, u ovom kvartu radničke klase, ova djevojčica postaje bolesna i pokazalo se kako jama, koju još uvijek imaju, usprkos Uredbi, graniči s jako popularnom pumpom za vodu, lokalnom jamom za snabdijevanje vodom dobro poznatoj po najboljoj vodi u Sohou, na koju su išli svi stanovnici Sohoa i okolnih kvartova.
And so this little girl inadvertently ended up contaminating the water in this popular pump, and one of the most terrifying outbreaks in the history of England erupted about two or three days later. Literally, 10 percent of the neighborhood died in seven days, and much more would have died if people hadn't fled after the initial outbreak kicked in. So it was this incredibly terrifying event. You had these scenes of entire families dying over the course of 48 hours of cholera, alone in their one-room apartments, in their little flats. Just an extraordinary, terrifying scene. Snow lived near there, heard about the outbreak, and in this amazing act of courage went directly into the belly of the beast because he thought an outbreak that concentrated could actually potentially end up convincing people that, in fact, the real menace of cholera was in the water supply and not in the air. He suspected an outbreak that concentrated would probably involve a single point source. One single thing that everybody was going to because it didn't have the traditional slower path of infections that you might expect.
I tako je ova mala djevojčica nehotice kontaminirala vodu u toj popularnoj pumpi, i jedna je od najužasnijih pojava kolere u povijesti Engleske buknula dva ili tri dana kasnije. Doslovno je 10 posto susjedstva umrlo u sedam dana, i puno bi ih više umrlo da ljudi nisu pobjegli nakon prvobitnog izbijanja. Dakle, to je bio taj nevjerojatno užasan događaj. Imate scene cijelih obitelji koje umiru za 48 sati od kolere, same u jednosobnim stanovima, u svojim malim garsonijerama. Jednostavno vanredna, užasavajuća scena. Snow je živio blizu, čuo je za izbijanje, i u tom nevjerojatnom činu hrabrosti otišao je ravno u ralje zvijeri zato što je mislio kako bi tako usredotočeno izbijanje moglo zapravo uvjeriti ljude da je, u stvari, prava opasnost od kolere u zalihama vode, a ne u zraku. Pretpostavljao je da bi tako koncentrirano izbijanje vjerojatno uključivalo jedan glavni izvor. Jednu jedinu stvar na koju svi idu zato što nije imala tradicionalan sporiji način ponašanja infekcija koji biste mogli očekivati.
And so he went right in there and started interviewing people. He eventually enlisted the help of this amazing other figure, who's kind of the other protagonist of the book -- this guy, Henry Whitehead, who was a local minister, who was not at all a man of science, but was incredibly socially connected; he knew everybody in the neighborhood. And he managed to track down, Whitehead did, many of the cases of people who had drunk water from the pump, or who hadn't drunk water from the pump. And eventually Snow made a map of the outbreak. He found increasingly that people who drank from the pump were getting sick. People who hadn't drunk from the pump were not getting sick. And he thought about representing that as a kind of a table of statistics of people living in different neighborhoods, people who hadn't, you know, percentages of people who hadn't, but eventually he hit upon the idea that what he needed was something that you could see. Something that would take in a sense a higher-level view of all this activity that had been happening in the neighborhood.
I tako je otišao direktno tamo i počeo intervjuirati ljude. Na kraju je dobio pomoć te nevjerojatne druge osobe, na neki način drugog protagonista knjige -- tog čovjeka, Henry Whiteheada, mjesnog svećenika, koji uopće nije bio znanstvenik, ali je bio nevjerojatno društveno povezan; poznavao je sve u susjedstvu. I uspio je pronaći, Whitehead, mnoge slučajeve ljudi koji su pili vodu iz pumpe, ili koji nisu pili vodu iz pumpe. I na kraju je Snow napravio kartu izbijanja. Otkrio je kako ljudi koji su pili s pumpe češće obolijevaju. Ljudi koji nisu pili s pumpe nisu obolijevali. I mislio je to prikazati kao vrstu tablice statistika ljudi koji žive u različitim susjedstvima, ljudi koji nisu imali, znate, postotke ljudi koji nisu imali, ali na kraju je došao do ideje da treba nešto što možemo vidjeti. Nešto što bi dalo pogled s više razine na sve te aktivnosti u susjedstvu.
And so he created this map, which basically ended up representing all the deaths in the neighborhoods as black bars at each address. And you can see in this map, the pump right at the center of it and you can see that one of the residences down the way had about 15 people dead. And the map is actually a little bit bigger. As you get further and further away from the pump, the deaths begin to grow less and less frequent. And so you can see this something poisonous emanating out of this pump that you could see in a glance. And so, with the help of this map, and with the help of more evangelizing that he did over the next few years and that Whitehead did, eventually, actually, the authorities slowly started to come around. It took much longer than sometimes we like to think in this story, but by 1866, when the next big cholera outbreak came to London, the authorities had been convinced -- in part because of this story, in part because of this map -- that in fact the water was the problem.
I tako je napravio kartu, koja je u osnovi prikazivala sve smrti u susjedstvima kao crne crte na svakoj adresi. I možete vidjeti na ovoj karti, pumpu točno u centru i možete vidjeti kako jedna od zgrada niže ima oko 15 umrlih. I karta je zapravo malo veća. I kako se sve više i više udaljavate od pumpe, smrti je sve manje i manje. Možete vidjeti da nešto otrovno izlazi iz te pumpe, što ste mogli vidjeti odmah. I tako, pomoću ove karte, i pomoću više uvjeravanja sljedećih nekoliko godina i što je radio Whitehead, na kraju, zapravo, vlasti su polako počele mijenjati mišljenje. Trajalo je duže no što ponekad volimo misliti u ovoj priči, ali 1886., kad se sljedeći put kolera pojavila u Londonu, vlasti su bile uvjerene -- djelomično zbog ove priče, djelomično zbog ove karte -- da je de facto problem voda.
And they had already started building the sewers in London, and they immediately went to this outbreak and they told everybody to start boiling their water. And that was the last time that London has seen a cholera outbreak since. So, part of this story, I think -- well, it's a terrifying story, it's a very dark story and it's a story that continues on in many of the developing cities of the world. It's also a story really that is fundamentally optimistic, which is to say that it's possible to solve these problems if we listen to reason, if we listen to the kind of wisdom of these kinds of maps, if we listen to people like Snow and Whitehead, if we listen to the locals who understand what's going on in these kinds of situations. And what it ended up doing is making the idea of large-scale metropolitan living a sustainable one.
I već su bili počeli graditi kanalizacije u Londonu, i odmah su otišli tamo i rekli svima da počnu prokuhavati vodu. I to je bio zadnji put da se kolera pojavila u Londonu. Dakle, dio ove priče, mislim -- dobro, priča je užasna, to je vrlo mračna priča i ovo je priča koja se nastavlja u mnogim svjetskim gradovima u razvoju. Ovo je također priča koja je u osnovi optimistična što znači da je moguće riješiti te probleme ako slušamo razum, ako slušamo vrstu razuma ovih vrsta mapa, ako slušamo ljude poput Snowa i Whiteheada, ako slušamo lokalne stanovnike koji razumiju što se događa u ovakvim vrstama situacija. I na kraju je došao do ideje života u metropoli kao održivog.
When people were looking at 10 percent of their neighborhoods dying in the space of seven days, there was a widespread consensus that this couldn't go on, that people weren't meant to live in cities of 2.5 million people. But because of what Snow did, because of this map, because of the whole series of reforms that happened in the wake of this map, we now take for granted that cities have 10 million people, cities like this one are in fact sustainable things. We don't worry that New York City is going to collapse in on itself quite the way that, you know, Rome did, and be 10 percent of its size in 100 years or 200 years. And so that in a way is the ultimate legacy of this map. It's a map of deaths that ended up creating a whole new way of life, the life that we're enjoying here today. Thank you very much.
Kad su ljudi vidjeli umiranje 10 posto njihova susjedstva u razdoblju od sedam dana, široko je rasprostranjen konsenzus da se tako više ne može nastaviti, da ljudima nije bilo suđeno živjeti u gradovima od 2,5 milijuna stanovnika. No zbog toga što je učinio Snow, zbog ove karte, zbog cijelih serija reformi koje je potaknula pojava ove karte, sada prihvaćamo kao gotovu činjenicu da gradovi imaju 10 milijuna ljudi, da su gradovi poput ovih zapravo održivi. Ne brinemo se da će New York City kolapsirati sam od sebe, na način na koji je, znate, Rim kolapsirao, i biti 10 posto od vlastite veličine za 100 ili 200 godina. I to je na neki način konačna ostavština ove karte. To je karta smrti koja je na kraju stvorila cijeli novi način života, života u kojem uživamo danas. Puno vam hvala.