There is nothing bigger or older than the universe. The questions I would like to talk about are: one, where did we come from? How did the universe come into being? Are we alone in the universe? Is there alien life out there? What is the future of the human race?
Koinotdan-da ulkan va yoshi ulug' narsa yo'q. [Stiven Hoking] Men bugun quyidagi savollar muhokamasiga to'xtalib o'tmoqchiman: birinchidan, bizning kelib chiqishimiz qayerga borib taqaladi? Koinot qanday paydo bo'lgan? [2008-yil, fevral. Monterey, Kaliforniya] Biz koinotda yolg'izmizmi? O'zga sayyoralarda ham hayot mavjudmi? Insoniyatning kelajagi qanday?
Up until the 1920s, everyone thought the universe was essentially static and unchanging in time. Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding. Distant galaxies were moving away from us. This meant they must have been closer together in the past. If we extrapolate back, we find we must have all been on top of each other about 15 billion years ago. This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.
1920-yillarga qadar hamma koinotni vaqt oralig'ida turg'un va o'zgarmas deb o'ylagan. So'ng koinot kengayib borayotganligi, olis galaktikalar bizdan uzoqlashayotgani aniqlandi. Bu ular o'tmishda bir-biriga yaqinroq joylashganidan darak beradi. Mavjud xulosalardan tahmin qiladigan bo'lsak, taxminan 15 milliard yil avval barcha galaktikalar bir nuqtada birlashgan. Bu Ulkan portlash, koinotning yaralishi edi.
But was there anything before the Big Bang? If not, what created the universe? Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did? We used to think that the theory of the universe could be divided into two parts. First, there were the laws like Maxwell's equations and general relativity that determined the evolution of the universe, given its state over all of space at one time. And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.
Ulkan portlashdan oldin ham biron bir narsa bo'lganmi? Agar yo'q bo'lsa, koinot qanday yaraldi? Nima uchun Ulkan portlash natijasida aynan mana shunday koinot paydo bo'ldi? Avvallari koinot nazariyasini ikki qismga bo'lish mumkin deb o'ylardik. Birinchisi koinot evolyutsiyani uning muayyan vaqtdagi umumiy holatiga tayangan holda izohlab bergan Maksvell tenglamasi va umumiy nisbiylik nazariyasi singari qonunlarni o'z ichiga olgan. Ikkinchisi, shubhasiz, koinotning dastlabki holatini tushuntirgan.
We have made good progress on the first part, and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolution in all but the most extreme conditions. But until recently, we have had little idea about the initial conditions for the universe. However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditions depends on time and space being separate and distinct. Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theory allow time to behave like another dimension of space. This removes the distinction between time and space, and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state. The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.
Birinchi qismda sezilarli yutuqlarga erishdik va endi biz o'ta og'ir sharoitlardan tashqari boshqa barcha sharoitlarda evolyutsiya qonunlari haqida ko'p narsalarni bilamiz. Ammo yaqin vaqtgacha koinotning yaratilishi uchun zarur dastlabki sharoitlar haqida deyarli hech qanday tasavvurga ega emas edik. Biroq, uni evolyutsiya qonunlari va dastlabki sharoitlarga ajratish zamon va makonning bir-biridan mustaqil holda mavjud bo'lishini taqozo etadi. Favqulodda sharoitlarda umumiy nisbiylik nazariyasi va kvant nazariyasi vaqtni fazoning boshqa o'lchami sifatida namoyon bo'lishiga imkon beradi. Bu vaqt va makon o'rtasidagi tafovutni olib tashlaydi va evolyutsiya qonun- -lari ham koinotning dastlabki holatini belgilab berishi mumkinligini anglatadi. Koinot o'z-o'zidan yo'qdan bor bo'lishi mumkin.
Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universe was created in different states. These predictions are in excellent agreement with observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background, which is an imprint of the very early universe. We think we have solved the mystery of creation. Maybe we should patent the universe and charge everyone royalties for their existence.
Bundan tashqari, biz koinotning turli holatlarda yarilishi ehtimollarini hisoblab chiqishimiz mumkin. Mazkur bashoratlar WMAP sun'iy yo'ldoshi tomonidan kuzatilgan va koinot yaralishining alomati hisoblangan kosmik mikroto'lqinli fon bilan muvofiq keladi. O'ylashimizcha, biz olam yaralishi sirini ochdik. Ehtimol, koinotni patentlashimiz va barchadan ularning mavjudligi uchun mualliflik qalam haqi undirishimiz kerakdir.
I now turn to the second big question: are we alone, or is there other life in the universe? We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth, so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets, of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.
Endi ikkinchi muhim savolga to'xtalib o'tsam: biz koinotda yolg'izmizmi yoki unda boshqa hayot shakllari ham mavjudmi? Yerda hayot o'z-o'zidan paydo bo'lgan deb hisoblaymiz, shu bois galaktikada juda ko'pdek tuyuladigan boshqa yashash uchun mos sayyoralarda ham hayot shakllari bo'lishi mumkin.
But we don't know how life first appeared. We have two pieces of observational evidence on the probability of life appearing. The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago. The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years ago and was probably too hot for about the first half billion years. So life appeared on Earth within half a billion years of it being possible, which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetime of a planet of Earth type. This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high. If it was very low, one would have expected it to take most of the ten billion years available.
Ammo hayot ilk bor qanday paydo bo'lganini bilmaymiz. Bizda hayotning paydo bo'lish ehtimoliga dalil bo'luvchi ikki xil kuzatuv mavjud. Birinchisi – 3.5 milliard yil avval paydo bo'lgan suv o'tlarining tosh qoldiqlari. Yer 4,6 milliard yil oldin shakllangan va aftidan dastlabki yarim milliard yil davomida juda issiq bo'lgan. Yerda hayot yarim milliard yilda paydo bo'ldi, bu Yerga o'xshash sayyoralarning 10 milliard yillik umriga nisbatan qisqa muddatdir. Bu hayotning paydo bo'lishi ehtimoli yuqori ekanini ko'rsatadi. Agar ehtimoli juda past bo'lganida, uning yaralishiga o'n milliard yilga yaqin vaqt ketardi, deb taxmin qilish mumkin.
On the other hand, we don't seem to have been visited by aliens. I am discounting the reports of UFOs. Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos? If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reports and keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring, it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far. Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project, we haven't heard any alien television quiz shows. This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizations at our stage of development within a radius of a few hundred light years. Issuing an insurance policy against abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.
Boshqa tomondan, Yerga o'zga sayyoraliklar tashrif buyurgan deb o'ylamayman. Noma'lum uchar jismlar to'g'risidagi xabarlarga e'tibor bermayman. Nima uchun ular faqat tentaklarga ko'rinadi? Agar hukumat o'zga sayyoraliklar to'g'risidagi hisobotlarni yo'qotish va ulardan olingan ilmiy bilimlarni yashirish bo'yicha yashirin fitna tuzgan bo'lsa, bu siyosat mutlaqo samarasiz ko'rinadi. Bundan tashqari, SETI loyihasi olib borgan qidiruvlarga qaramay, biz o'zga sayyoraliklarning televiktorinalarini eshitmadik. Bu bir necha yuz yorug'lik yili radiusidagi sayyoralarda xuddi bizdek rivojlangan sivilizatsiyalar mavjud emasligini ko'rsatadi. O'zga sayyoraliklarning o'g'irlab ketishidan sug'urtalanishning joriy etilishi mutlaqo xavfsiz ish ko'rinadi.
This brings me to the last of the big questions: the future of the human race. If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy, we should make sure we survive and continue. But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history. Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill. But our genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts that were of survival advantage in the past. It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand or million.
Bu meni muhim savollarning so'ngisiga javob berishga undaydi: Insoniyatning kelajagi qanday? Agar biz galaktikadagi yagona aqlli mavjudotlar bo'lsak, unda omon qolish va naslimizni davom ettirishga harakat qilishimiz kerak. Ammo biz tariximizning tobora xavfli davriga kirib bormoqdamiz. Dunyo aholisi va Yer sayyorasining cheklangan resurslaridan foydalanish atrof-muhitni yaxshi yoki yomon tarafga o'zgartirish uchun texnik imkoniyatlarimiz bilan bir qatorda o'sib bormoqda. Ammo genetik kodimizda haligacha o'tmishda tirik qolishimiz uchun xizmat qilgan xudbin va tajovuzkor instinktlar mavjud. Keyingi yuz yil ichida falokatlarning oldini olish ancha qiyin bo'ladi, kelgusi ming yoki million yilni esa gapirmasa ham bo'ladi.
Our only chance of long-term survival is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth, but to spread out into space. The answers to these big questions show that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years. But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years, our future is in space. That is why I am in favor of manned -- or should I say, personned -- space flight.
Uzoq muddat omon qolishimiz uchun yagona imkoniyat Yer sayyorasiga ko'z tikish emas, balki kosmos bo'ylab tarqalishdan iborat. Ushbu muhim savollarga javoblar shuni ko'rsatadiki, so'nggi yuz yil ichida ulkan yutuqlarga erishdik. Ammo yuz yildan keyin ham olg'a ildamlashda davom etishni istasak, bizning kelajagimiz kosmosda. Shuning uchun men uchuvchi tomonidan boshqarila- -digan kosmik parvozni yo'lga qo'yish tarafdoriman.
All of my life I have sought to understand the universe and find answers to these questions. I have been very lucky that my disability has not been a serious handicap. Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most people to pursue the quest for knowledge. The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe, and we are making good progress. Thank you for listening.
Butun umrim davomida koinotni tushunishga va bu savollarga javob topishga intildim. Nogironligim bunga jiddiy to'siq bo'lmagani mening omadim. Aslida shu holatimda ilm bilan shug'illanish uchun boshqalarga qaraganda ko'proq vaqt topdim. Pirovard maqsadimiz - koinotning to'liq nazariyasini ishlab chiqish va biz bunda katta natijalarga erishmoqdamiz. E'tiboringiz uchun rahmat.
Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way, do you now believe that it is more likely than not that we are alone in the Milky Way, as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher? This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insight into the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.
Kris Anderson: Professor, aytingchi, biz chindan ham Somon Yo'lida yolg'izmizmi, bizdek yoki undan ham yuqori darajada rivojlangan sivilizatsiyalar yo'qmi? Mazkur savolga javob berish uchun yetti daqiqa sarflandi. Men bu ma'ruza TED uchun naqadar katta saxiylik bo'lganiga yana bir bor amin bo'ldim.
Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilization within several hundred light years; otherwise we would have heard radio waves. The alternative is that civilizations don't last very long, but destroy themselves.
Stiven Hoking: O'ylashimcha, biz bir necha yuz yorug'lik yilidagi yagona sivilizatsiya bo'lishimiz ehtimoli katta; aks holda radio to'lqinlarini eshitgan bo'lar edik. Yana bir faraz shundan iboratki, sivilizatsiyalar uzoq davom etmaydi, balki o'z-o'zini yo'q qiladi.
CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer. We will take it as a salutary warning, I think, for the rest of our conference this week. Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you made to share your questions with us today. Thank you very much indeed.
KA: Professor Hoking, javobingiz uchun rahmat. O'ylaymanki, biz buni hafta davomidagi boshqa konferensiya- -larimiz uchun qimmatli ogohlantirish sifatida qabul qilamiz. Professor, bugun bilimlaringizni biz bilan bo'lishish uchun ko'rsatgan ulkan sa'y-harakatingiz uchun chin dildan minnatdormiz. Sizga katta rahmat.
(Applause)
(Qarsak)