There is nothing bigger or older than the universe. The questions I would like to talk about are: one, where did we come from? How did the universe come into being? Are we alone in the universe? Is there alien life out there? What is the future of the human race?
'u' tIn law' Hoch tIn puS. 'u' qan law' Hoch qan puS. vay' vIghel vIneH, nuqDaq 'oH mungmaj'e'? chay' chenpu' 'u'? 'u'Daq mamob'a'? latlh yuQmeyDaq yaghmey lutu'lu''a'? nuq 'oH Human Segh San'e'?
Up until the 1920s, everyone thought the universe was essentially static and unchanging in time. Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding. Distant galaxies were moving away from us. This meant they must have been closer together in the past. If we extrapolate back, we find we must have all been on top of each other about 15 billion years ago. This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.
qaSpa' tera' maH DIS poH 1920 choHbe' 'u' 'e' luHar Hoch. SachtaH 'u' ghIq net tu'. cholHa'taH qIbmey Hop. vaj 'op poH ret wa' DaqDaq Sumbej. mIwvam wInuDchugh, vaj ngoD wItlhoj: 15 000 000 000 ben wa' DaqDaq Hoch qIbmey lutu'lu'. ngugh qaS SachchoHghach'a', 'u' chenchoHghach.
But was there anything before the Big Bang? If not, what created the universe? Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did? We used to think that the theory of the universe could be divided into two parts. First, there were the laws like Maxwell's equations and general relativity that determined the evolution of the universe, given its state over all of space at one time. And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.
qaSpa' SachchoHghach'a', vay' tu'lu''a' ? ngugh pagh tu'lu'chugh, 'u' chenmoH nuq? qatlh 'u' chenmoH SachchoHghach'a', 'ej qatlh jaS chenbe' 'u'. cha' 'ay'mey ghaj 'u' nger naQ 'e' wIHarpu'. chutmey'e' pabbogh 'u' lutu'lu'. Maxwell 'ul peQ je nger. Einstein tlham nger. latlh chutmey je. chutmeyvam pablu'chu'taH choHtaHvIS 'u' Dotlh. chutmeyvam 'oH 'u' nger naQ 'ay' wa''e'. 'u' Dotlh wa'DIch 'oH 'ay' cha''e'.
We have made good progress on the first part, and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolution in all but the most extreme conditions. But until recently, we have had little idea about the initial conditions for the universe. However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditions depends on time and space being separate and distinct. Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theory allow time to behave like another dimension of space. This removes the distinction between time and space, and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state. The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.
'ay' wa' wIyajchoHchu'lI'. ghu'mey le' wIyajchu'be'bogh lutu'lu' 'ach tlhoS choHtaHghach chutmey DIyaj. 'a qen 'u' Dotlh wa'DIch wISovbe'chu'. pImchugh chuqmey poHmey je, vaj pIm nger 'ay'mey. 'a chuqmey Da poHmey. 'e' luchaw' ngermey chu' qaStaHvIS ghu'mey le'. vaj pImbe' poHmey chuqmey je. vaj chutmey DIyajchu'DI', 'u' Dotlh wa'DIch wISovlaH. chen'eghmoHlaH 'u'. nuq 'oHpu' 'u' Dotlh wa'DIch'e'? DuH Dotlhmey law'.
Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universe was created in different states. These predictions are in excellent agreement with observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background, which is an imprint of the very early universe. We think we have solved the mystery of creation. Maybe we should patent the universe and charge everyone royalties for their existence.
ghaytan qaSbogh DuHmey lutu'lu' 'ej ghaytanHa' qaSbogh DuHmey lutu'lu'. wISImlaH. chenpu'DI' 'u' woj law' tlhuDlu'. 'u' Qup cha'bogh mIllogh'e' luchenmoHmeH tejpu' WMAP SIbDoH woj noch patmey lulo'ta'. 'u' Qup qechmeymaj rurqu' mIlloghvam. chen'eghmoHghach Qatlh wIyajlaw'. chaq 'u' 'oghlaHghach chaw' wIDoQnIS ghIq maHvaD DIlnIS 'u' Dabbogh Hoch'e'!
I now turn to the second big question: are we alone, or is there other life in the universe? We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth, so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets, of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.
DaH potlh'a' cha' vIqel: mamob'a'? pagh latlh yuQmeyDaq yaghmey lutu'lu''a'? tera'Daq chenpu' yaghmey. chenmoHta' pagh. 'e' wIHar. vaj chaq latlh yuQmeyDaq chenpu' yaghmey. 'ej qIbmajDaq law'law' yuQmey'e' DablaHbogh yaghmey.
But we don't know how life first appeared. We have two pieces of observational evidence on the probability of life appearing. The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago. The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years ago and was probably too hot for about the first half billion years. So life appeared on Earth within half a billion years of it being possible, which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetime of a planet of Earth type. This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high. If it was very low, one would have expected it to take most of the ten billion years available.
chay' chenpu' yaghmey wa'DIch? maSovbe'. chenmeH yaghmey 'eb bopbogh De' law''e' lu'ang cha' Dochmey: wutlhDaq yagh Hegh chovnatlhmey DItu'pu'. 3 500 000 000 ben Hegh yaghmeyvam. 4 600 000 000 ben chen tera'. qaStaHvIS 500 000 000 DIS, ghaytan tera' luDablaHbe' yaghmey 'Iqmo' tuj. vaj DuHpu'DI' yIn, rInpa' 500 000 000 DIS chenpu' yaghmey. tera' taHtaHghach poH nI' law' yaghmey taHbe'taHghach poH nI' puS, vaj nom chenpu' yaghmey, DuHpu'DI'. vaj qubbe'law' chenmeH yaghmey 'ebmey. qubchugh bIH, ghaytanHa' chen yaghmey QuptaHvIS tera'.
On the other hand, we don't seem to have been visited by aliens. I am discounting the reports of UFOs. Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos? If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reports and keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring, it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far. Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project, we haven't heard any alien television quiz shows. This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizations at our stage of development within a radius of a few hundred light years. Issuing an insurance policy against abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.
'a wej nuSuchbe'law' latlh yuQmey nganpu'. UFOmeyqoq vIqelbe'taH. qatlh taQwI'pu'vaD neH 'ang'egh Dujmeyvam? novpu' Sov peghtaH'a' qum? nIDtaHchugh chaH, Qapbe'law'taH. novpu' nejtaH SETI jInmol, 'ej vumqu'taH tejpu', 'a pagh nov ghe'naQmey Qoypu' chaH. ghu'vammo' wa''e' wIloylaH: 'op vatlh loghqam juchbogh moQ qoDDaq tayqeqmaj lururbogh tayqeqmey'e' lutu'lu'be'. nov quchwI'pu'mo' DuQanmeH negh yIDIlQo'! ghaytan 'utbe'chu'.
This brings me to the last of the big questions: the future of the human race. If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy, we should make sure we survive and continue. But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history. Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill. But our genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts that were of survival advantage in the past. It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand or million.
DaH potlh'a' natlIS vIqel: nuq 'oH Human Segh San'e'? qIbvamDaq QublaHbogh latlh yaghmey lutu'lu'be'chugh, mataHnISqu'! 'a QobtaH ghu'maj. tlhoy law'choHtaH roghvaHmaj 'ej tlhoy tera' jo wInatlhtaH, 'ej chammaj 'Itlhmo' yuQmaj wISIghlaHqu'. wIDublaH 'ej wIQaw'laH. 'a 'IwmajDaq numutmoHbogh Duj, nuvaQmoHbogh Duj je lutu'lu'taH, poH nI' ret mataHmeH 'utmo' Dujvam. qaStaHvIS vatlh DIS poH veb Qugh'a' wIbotlaH'a'? Qatlh. qaStaHvIS 'uy' DIS poH veb... Qatlhqu'!
Our only chance of long-term survival is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth, but to spread out into space. The answers to these big questions show that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years. But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years, our future is in space. That is why I am in favor of manned -- or should I say, personned -- space flight.
nI'taHvIS poH, mataHtaHmeH latlh qo'mey DIjaHnISqu'. reH tera'Daq maratlhlaHbe'. potlh'a'meyvam DInuDchugh, vaj wa''e' wItlhoj: qaStaHvIS nungbogh vatlh DIS poH, Ser law' wIta'ta'. 'a qaStaHvIS vatlh DIS poH veb mataH wIneHchugh, loghDaq 'oH Sanmaj'e'. loghDaq lujaH nuvpu' vIneH ngoDvammo'.
All of my life I have sought to understand the universe and find answers to these questions. I have been very lucky that my disability has not been a serious handicap. Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most people to pursue the quest for knowledge. The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe, and we are making good progress. Thank you for listening.
'u' vIyaj reH 'e' vInID 'ej potlh'a'meyvam vIHaD qaStaHvIS yInwIj. Do' 'e' botqu'be' ropwIj. chaq muQaH ropwIj. ropvammo' qaStaHvIS nI'bogh poHmey 'ej law'bogh potlh'a'meyvam vIbuSlaH. 'u' nger naQ 'oH ngoQ'a''e', 'ej Ser law' wIta'lI'. Su'Ijpu'mo' Satlho'.
Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way, do you now believe that it is more likely than not that we are alone in the Milky Way, as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher? This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insight into the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.
Chris Anderson: ghojmoHwI''a' wa' DuH DawIv net poQchugh, ghaytan qIbmajDaq mamob'a'? tayqeqmaj 'Itlh law' Hoch 'Itlh puS. DuH'a'? chay' bIHar? jangmeH vumta' ghaH qaStaHvIS Soch tupmey. quvba' ghojmoHwI''a', TEDvaD SoQvam nI' ghItlhta'mo'.
Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilization within several hundred light years; otherwise we would have heard radio waves. The alternative is that civilizations don't last very long, but destroy themselves.
Stephen Hawking: ghaytan 'op vatlh loghqam juchbogh moQ qoDDaq tayqeqmaj lururbogh tayqeqmey'e' lutu'lu'be' nov jabbI'IDmey DItu'be'pu'mo'. pagh chaq ngaj tayqeq yInmey Qaw''eghmo'.
CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer. We will take it as a salutary warning, I think, for the rest of our conference this week. Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you made to share your questions with us today. Thank you very much indeed.
CA: Hawking ghojmoHwI''a', bIjangta'mo' qatlho'. ghuHvammo' qaStaHvIS qepmaj mayep. ghojmoHwI''a', SoQvam DaghermeH bIvumqu'ta'mo' SoHvaD pItlho'. pItlho'qu'bej.
(Applause)
(quvmoHmeH wabmey)