I want to talk to you about something kind of big. We'll start here. Sixty-five million years ago --
有啲嘢我想講畀你哋聽 係好大件事 我哋由呢度開始 六千五百萬年前
(Laughter)
the dinosaurs had a bad day.
啲恐龍好慘
(Laughter)
(笑)
A chunk of rock six miles across, moving something like 50 times the speed of a rifle bullet, slammed into the Earth. It released its energy all at once, and it was an explosion that was mind-numbing. If you took every nuclear weapon ever built at the height of the Cold War, lumped them together, and blew them up at the same time, that would be one one-millionth of the energy released at that moment. The dinosaurs had a really bad day. OK?
有一塊寬六英里嘅石頭飛落來撞落地球 速度大概係 步槍子彈嘅五十倍 佢即刻一次過釋放晒所有能量 而且引起咗爆炸 大聲到震耳欲聾 如果你將所有 喺冷戰高峰時期製造出來嘅原子彈 喺同一時間綁埋一齊之後引爆 噉就會釋放出 小行星能量嘅百萬分之一 啲恐龍真係好慘 好
Now, a six-mile-wide rock is very large. We all live here in Boulder. If you look out your window and see Longs Peak -- you're probably familiar with it -- now, scoop up Longs Peak and put it out in space. Take ... Meeker, Mt. Meeker. Lump that in there, and put that in space as well. And Mt. Everest. And K2. And the Indian peaks. Then you're starting to get an idea of how much rock we're talking about, OK? We know it was that big because of the impact it had and the crater it left. It hit in what we now know as Yucatan, the Gulf of Mexico. You can see here, there's the Yucatan Peninsula, if you recognize Cozumel off the east coast there. Here is how big of a crater was left. It was huge.
六英里寬嘅石頭係非常之大嘅 我哋都住係博爾德 如果你望出窗外你可以睇到朗斯山峰 你好可能覺得佢好熟 依家,將朗斯山峰掘出來 將佢放喺太空 將米克山掘出來 同樣擺上太空 仲有珠穆朗瑪峰同埋 K2 同埋印第安山峰都放上太空 然之後你就知 我哋喺度講緊幾多石頭 我哋知佢有咁大係因為 佢嘅衝擊力同埋佢留低嘅隕石坑 佢撞落今日墨西哥灣嘅猶加敦 你可以睇到呢度就係猶加敦半島 如果你認到東岸嘅科蘇梅爾嘅話 就睇到個坑有幾大 個坑非常之大,畀你感受下佢嘅規模
To give you a sense of the scale ... there you go. The scale here is 50 miles on top, a hundred kilometers on the bottom. This thing was 300 kilometers across -- 200 miles -- an enormous crater that excavated out vast amounts of earth that splashed around the globe and set fires all over the planet, threw up enough dust to block out the sun. It wiped out 75 percent of all species on Earth. Now, not all asteroids are that big.
幅圖比例係一比五十英里 或者一比一百公里 呢個坑成三百公里寬或者兩百英里寬 隕石撞落嘅一刻產生大量塵土 塵土燒著嘅火擴散到全世界 升起嘅塵埃足以遮住太陽 殞石毀滅咗地球上百分之七十五嘅生物 不過唔係所有嘅小行星都咁大
Some of them are smaller. Here is one that came in over the United States in October of 1992. It came in on a Friday night. Why is that important? Because back then, video cameras were just starting to become popular, and parents would bring them to their kids' football games to film their kids playing football. And since this came in on a Friday, they were able to get this great footage of this thing breaking up as it came in over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey until it did that to a car in New York.
有啲比較細 呢度有係一個小行星撞落美國 時間係 1992 年 10 月 佢喺星期五晚上撞落來 點解講佢呢? 因為當時 攝影機啱啱開始流行 啲人呢就會將佢哋帶喺身邊 爹地媽咪帶住攝像機 去拍仔女嘅足球比賽 星期五嗰晚呢個小行星落咗落來 所以啲人可以捕捉到小行星墜落 一路穿過西維珍尼亞州、馬里蘭州 賓夕法尼亞州同新澤西州 直到佢擊中咗一部紐約嘅車 (笑)
(Laughter)
依家,呢個唔係一個 200 英里寬嘅坑
Now, this is not a 200-mile-wide crater, but then again, you can see the rock, which is sitting right here, about the size of a football, that hit that car and did that damage. Now, this thing was probably about the size of a school bus when it first came in. It broke up through atmospheric pressure, it crumbled, and then the pieces fell apart and did some damage. Now, you wouldn't want that falling on your foot or your head, because it would do that to it. That would be bad. But it won't wipe out, you know, all life on Earth, so that's fine.
但跟住落來你哋可以睇到 粒隕石同一個足球差唔多大 擊中咗嗰部車 不過當呢粒小行星進入地球時 可能係一部校車嘅晒士 由於高温擦過大氣壓 佢開始燃燒、解體 解體之後嘅石頭 只係對地面造成咗一啲破壞 你哋唔會希望石頭落喺你嘅腳或者頭 因為會好痛 但係你知細細嚿石 唔會毀滅所有地球上嘅生命 之不過
But it turns out, you don't need something six miles across to do a lot of damage. There is a median point between tiny rock and gigantic rock, and in fact, if any of you have ever been to near Winslow, Arizona, there is a crater in the desert there that is so iconic that it is actually called "Meteor Crater." To give you a sense of scale, this is about a mile wide. If you look up at the top, that's a parking lot, and those are recreational vehicles right there. So it's about a mile across, 600 feet deep. The object that formed this was probably about 30 to 50 yards across, so roughly the size of Macky Auditorium here. It came in at speeds that were tremendous, slammed into the ground, blew up, and exploded with the energy of roughly a 20-megaton nuclear bomb -- a very hefty bomb. This was 50,000 years ago, so it may have wiped out a few buffalo or antelope, or something like that out in the desert, but it probably would not have caused global devastation.
唔使六英里寬嘅小行星 都可以造成好大破壞 喺分類上,除咗細隕石同大隕石之外 有中型隕石 如果你有去過亞利桑那州 溫斯洛附近嘅沙漠 嗰度有個中型隕石嘅坑 因為佢太標誌性 所以佢嘅名叫流星坑 爲咗讓你哋對晒士有個概念 呢個就有 1 英里寬 如果你望上高,嗰個係停車場 而嗰啲就係旅行車 所以佢有 1 英里寬,600 英尺深 形成呢個坑嘅小行星 大概有 30 到 50 碼寬 差唔多係呢度麥基禮堂嘅晒士 當時小行星以高速衝落來 撞擊地面 以近二千萬噸原子彈嘅能量爆炸 係一個重磅炸彈 呢件事發生喺 5 萬年前 令一啲水牛或者羚羊 或者生活喺沙漠嘅動物消失 但佢唔太可能毀滅成個地球
It turns out that these things don't have to hit the ground to do a lot of damage. Now, in 1908, over Siberia, near the Tunguska region -- for those of you who are Dan Aykroyd fans and saw "Ghostbusters," when he talked about the greatest cross-dimensional rift since the Siberia blast of 1909, where he got the date wrong, but that's OK.
因為我哋發現 要造成大損傷,唔一定要撞落地面度 喺 1908 年,西伯利亞上空 近通古斯卡地區—— 對於係丹.艾克羅伊德支持者 同時睇過《捉鬼特工隊》嘅人來講 當丹.艾克羅伊德講到 1909 年西伯利亞爆炸以來 最大嘅交叉維度裂縫—— 佢講錯咗日期,不過冇影響(笑)
(Laughter)
其實事情發生喺 1908 年 不過我可以當佢冇錯——
It was 1908. That's fine. I can live with that.
(Laughter)
(笑)
Another rock came into the Earth's atmosphere and this one blew up above the ground, several miles up above the surface of the Earth. The heat from the explosion set fire to the forest below it, and then the shock wave came down and knocked down trees for hundreds of square miles. This did a huge amount of damage. And again, this was a rock probably roughly the size of this auditorium that we're sitting in. In Meteor Crater, it was made of metal, and metal is much tougher, so it made it to the ground. The one over Tunguska was probably made of rock, and that's much more crumbly, so it blew up in the air.
當時另一粒殞石進入地球嘅大氣層 而且喺上空離地面幾英里爆炸 爆炸釋放出來嘅熱量引發地面森林大火 而且衝擊波將幾百平方英里嘅樹推倒 造成巨大嘅破壞 呢次嘅隕石 差唔多係我哋依家坐嘅演講廳嘅大細 隕石由金屬構成 因為金屬更加硬 所以殞石先可以落到地面 通古斯卡上空嘅石頭 好可能係由岩石構成 於是乎易碎 所以至會喺空中爆炸
Either way, these are tremendous explosions -- 20 megatons. Now, when these things blow up, they're not going to do global ecological damage. They're not going to do something like the dinosaur killer did. They're just not big enough. But they will do global economic damage, because they don't have to hit, necessarily, to do this kind of damage. They don't have to do global devastation. If one of these things were to hit pretty much anywhere, it would cause a panic. But if it came over a city, an important city -- not that any city is more important than others, but some of them we depend on more on the global economic basis -- that could do a huge amount of damage to us as a civilization. So, now that I've scared the crap out of you --
呢兩次隕石事件 都引起相等於二千萬噸嘅大爆炸 當呢啲隕石爆炸時 佢哋唔會破壞全球生態 佢哋唔係毀滅恐龍嗰類嘢 佢哋唔夠大 但係佢哋會破壞全球經濟 因為佢哋唔使撞擊都能夠破壞經濟 佢哋唔使毀滅全球都已經有破壞力 如果任何一粒小行星求其撞向一笪地方 就會引起恐慌 但係如果佢撞落一個重要城市—— 雖然唔係最重要嘅城市 但係撞落全球經濟裏邊 比較重要嘅城市—— 咁對我哋文明嚟講 就係大破壞 我依家已經嚇到你連屎都出咗來
(Laughter)
(笑)
what can we do about this? This is a potential threat. Let me note that we have not had a giant impact like the dinosaur killer for 65 million years. They're very rare. The smaller ones happen more often, but probably on the order of a millennium, every few centuries or every few thousand years. But it's still something to be aware of. Well, what do we do about them? The first thing we have to do is find them. This is an image of an asteroid that passed us in 2009. It's right here. But you can see that it's extremely faint. I don't know if you can see that in the back row. These are just stars.
我哋可以做啲咩嘢? 呢個係潛在威脅嚟 而其實 我哋已經有 6,500 萬年 冇遇到毀滅恐龍嘅巨大能量 畢竟大行星撞地球係好罕見 但行星越細,就越有可能撞擊地球 但小行星撞地球一般都講緊千年一次 或者每幾百年或者幾千年一次 就算係咁,我哋都要小心啲先得 咁,我哋要對行星做啲乜嘢呢? 第一件事係要搵佢哋 呢張相影 2009 年 一粒經過地球嘅小行星 佢就喺呢度 但你哋會發現佢係非常細 我都唔知坐喺最後嗰排嘅你哋 係咪可以睇到佢 呢啲只係星星
This is a rock that was about 30 yards across, so roughly the size of the ones that blew up over Tunguska and hit Arizona 50,000 years ago. These things are faint. They're hard to see, and the sky is really big. We have to find these things first. Well, the good news is, we're looking for them. NASA has devoted money to this; the National Science Foundation and other countries are interested in doing this. We're building telescopes that are looking for the threat.
呢個係一個 30 碼寬嘅岩石 差唔多同 5 萬年前 喺通古斯卡上空爆炸 然後撞擊亞利桑那州嗰啲隕石一樣大 呢啲行星好細、好難發現 而且天空實在太大嘞 但我哋必須搵到佢哋 好消息係,我哋已經搵緊佢哋啦 NASA 出資咗做呢件事 國家科學基金同埋其他國家 都對呢件事有興趣 我哋製造緊可以察覺威脅嘅太空望遠鏡 係好大嘅進步來
That's a great first step. But what's the second step? The second step is if we see one heading toward us, we have to stop it. What do we do? You've probably heard about the asteroid Apophis. If you haven't yet, you will. If you've heard about the Mayan 2012 apocalypse, you're going to hear about Apophis, because you're keyed in to all the doomsday networks, anyway.
不過下一步又係咩嘢呢? 第二步就係如果我哋發現 一粒小行星撞向地球時 我哋要阻止佢。咁點做呢? 你哋好可能聽過小行星阿波菲斯 如果你冇,你好快會聽到 如果你聽過瑪雅 2012 預言 你就會聽到小行星阿波菲斯 因為你哋無論如何 都走唔甩世界末日
(Laughter)
阿波菲斯小行星喺 2004 年被發現
Apophis is an asteroid that was discovered in 2004. It's roughly 250 [meters] across, so it's pretty big -- bigger than a football stadium. And it's going to pass by the Earth in April of 2029. And it's going to pass us so close that it's actually going to come underneath our weather satellites. The Earth's gravity is going to bend the orbit of this thing so much that if it's just right, if it passes through this region of space, this kidney-bean-shaped region called the keyhole, the Earth's gravity will bend it just enough that seven years later, on April 13 -- which is a Friday, I'll note -- in the year 2036 --
佢差唔多有 250 米寬 所以佢好大。你哋知喇,係大晒士 仲大過足球場 佢仲會喺 2029 年 4 月經過地球 佢靠得咁近 甚至乎會來到氣象衛星下面 如果佢正常運動 地球嘅重力會扭曲佢嘅軌道 如果佢穿過一個區域空間 一個叫做鎖匙眼嘅豆角形狀區域 地球重力就會令佢扭曲 恰恰七年之後 喺 2036 年 4 月 13 號
(Laughter)
即係一個星期五……(笑)
you can't plan that kind of stuff --
你一定預唔到咁嘅事︰
(Laughter)
阿波菲斯將會撞埋來我哋度
Apophis is going to hit us. And it's 250 meters across, so it would do unbelievable damage. The good news is that the odds of it actually passing through this keyhole and hitting us next go-around are one in a million, roughly -- very, very low odds. So I personally am not lying awake at night worrying about this at all. I don't think Apophis is a problem. In fact, Apophis is a blessing in disguise, because it woke us up to the dangers of these things. This thing was discovered just a few years ago and could hit us a few years from now. It won't, but it gives us a chance to study these kinds of asteroids.
佢有 250 米寬 所以將會造成巨大破壞 依家好消息係 佢穿過鎖匙眼同撞到我哋嘅幾率 係百萬分之一 係非常非常之細嘅幾率 所以我自己唔會因為擔心佢而瞓唔著 我唔認為阿波菲斯係一個問題 事實上,塞翁失馬焉知非福 阿波菲斯令我哋認識小行星嘅危險 阿波菲斯喺幾年前被發現 當時仲諗幾年後可能會撞落地球 但宜家佢唔會 而且仲畀咗我哋一個機會 來研究呢類小行星
We didn't really necessarily understand these keyholes, and now we do, and it turns out that's really important, because how do you stop an asteroid like this? Well, let me ask you: What happens if you're standing in the road and a car's headed for you? What do you do? You do this. Right? Move, and the car goes past you. But we can't move the Earth, at least not easily, but we can move a small asteroid.
我哋過去對鎖匙眼認知甚少 不過依家已經好清楚嘞 而且我哋明白到了解小行星係非常重要 因為如果唔係 你點阻止呢類小行星呢—— 等我問你,如果你企喺路上 突然有部車衝來你度,你會點做呢? 你會咁做 係咪?走。部車剛好同你擦身而過 但係我哋唔可以移走地球 至少冇咁易,但係我哋可以移走小行星
And it turns out, we've even done it. In the year 2005, NASA launched a probe called Deep Impact, which slammed a piece of itself into the nucleus of a comet. Comets are very much like asteroids. The purpose wasn't to push it out of the way; the purpose was to make a crater to excavate the material and see what was underneath the surface of this comet, which we learned quite a bit about. We did move the comet a little tiny bit -- not very much, but that wasn't the point. However, think about this: This thing is orbiting the Sun at 10, 20 miles per second. We shot a space probe at it and hit it, OK? Imagine how hard that must be, and we did it. That means we can do it again. If we see an asteroid that's coming toward us, headed right for us, and we have two years to go? Boom! We hit it. You know, if you watch the movies --
而且睇來,我哋甚至已經移走過小行星 2005 年,NASA 發射咗 一個叫深層衝擊嘅探測器 探測器其中一部份 撞入咗一粒彗星嘅核心 彗星好似小行星 嗰次目的唔係要將佢推到第二度 而係造一個坑挖掘 以瞭解彗星表面之下係咩嘢物質 我哋嗰次從中的確學到啲嘢 我哋的確將小行星移動咗小小 雖然唔多,但唔係重點 不過,諗下 呢個每秒圍繞太陽 10-20 英里 而我哋發射咗一部太空探測器 而且擊中佢 雖然件事好難,但係我哋做到 即係話我哋可以繼續做 如果我哋見到一粒小行星撞埋來 而且正正咁對住我哋咁 而我哋有兩年時間? 唔驚!我哋會擊中佢 如果你哋睇開戲
(Laughter)
可能會諗
you might think: Why don't we use a nuclear weapon? Well, you can try that, but the problem is timing. Shoot a nuclear weapon at this thing, you have to blow it up within a few milliseconds of tolerance, or else you'll miss it. And there are a lot of other problems with that; it's very hard to do. But just hitting something? That's pretty easy. I think even NASA can do that, and proved that they can.
點解我哋唔用核武? 係可以嘅,但問題係時間 如果你用核武來打佢 你要喺幾百萬分之秒裏邊引爆原子彈 如果唔係就打唔中 而且仲有好多其他問題 核武好高難度 如果只係要去撞呢?咁就易好多 我諗 NASA 可以做到 佢哋證明咗佢哋係得(笑)
(Laughter)
問題係如果撞到小行星
The problem is, if you hit this asteroid, you've changed the orbit, you measure the orbit, then you find out, oh yeah, we just pushed it into a keyhole, and now it's going to hit us in three years. Well, my opinion is: fine! It's not hitting us in six months -- that's good.
你就會改變佢嘅軌道 然之後你再測量佢嘅軌道,卻發現 弊!我哋將佢推入咗鎖匙眼 即係話佢將會係三年之後撞擊我哋! 我嘅觀點係,唔緊要 佢唔會喺六個月之內撞到我哋 咁就好啦 依家我哋有 3 年去做嘢
Now we have three years to do something else. And you can hit it again. That's kind of ham-fisted; you might just push it into a third keyhole or whatever, so you don't do that. And this is the part -- it's the part I just love.
你可以再次擊中佢 但咁樣係一件好蠢嘅事 因為你會推佢入第三個鎖匙眼 所以你唔會咁做 跟住係我鍾意嘅部份︰ (笑)
(Laughter)
「呯一聲!
After the big macho "Grr ... bam! We're gonna hit this thing in the face," then we bring in the velvet gloves.
我哋正面迎擊小行星之後, 我哋就有咗天鵝絨手套!」
(Laughter)
(笑)
There's a group of scientists and engineers and astronauts, and they call themselves The B612 Foundation. For those of you who've read "The Little Prince," you understand that reference, I hope -- the little prince lived on an asteroid called B612. These are smart guys -- men and women -- astronauts, like I said, engineers. Rusty Schweickart, who was an Apollo 9 astronaut, is on this. Dan Durda, my friend who made this image, works here at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, on Walnut Street. He created this image for this. He's actually one of the astronomers who works for them. If we see an asteroid that's going to hit the Earth and we have enough time, we can hit it to move it into a better orbit.
有一群科學家、工程師同埋太空人 自稱係 B612 基金會 但對於讀過《小王子》嘅人 你會明白意思︰ 小王子住喺 一個叫做 B612 嘅小行星上 上邊有好多聰明人,有男有女 太空人、工程師 阿波羅 9 號太空人 拉塞爾.施威卡特都喺上面 我朋友丹.德達整咗呢幅圖 佢依家就喺博爾德核桃街嘅 西南研究中心工作 佢為呢樣嘢做咗一幅圖 同時佢就係為佢哋做嘢嘅 其中一位太空人 如果我哋發現 一粒即將撞擊地球嘅小行星 而我哋有足夠嘅時間嘅話 我哋可以移佢去一個更安全嘅軌道
But then what we do is launch a probe that has to weigh a ton or two. It doesn't have to be huge -- a couple of tons, not that big -- and you park it near the asteroid. You don't land on it, because these things are tumbling end over end. It's very hard to land on them. Instead you get near it. The gravity of the asteroid pulls on the probe, and the probe has a couple of tons of mass. It has a little tiny bit of gravity, but it's enough that it can pull the asteroid, and you have your rocket set up -- you can barely see it here, but there's rocket plumes -- and these guys are connected by their own gravity, and if you move the probe very slowly -- very, very gently, you can very easily finesse that rock into a safe orbit. You can even put in orbit around the Earth where we could mine it, although that's a whole other thing; I won't go into that.
但我哋依家做緊嘅係發射 一粒 1-2 噸重嘅探測器 佢唔一定要幾噸咁大 你只要將佢停近小行星 你唔需要登陸小行星 因為小行星來回震動,所以好難登陸 不如先靠近佢哋 小行星嘅重力會拉埋探測器 而探測器又只有幾噸重 探測器嘅重力細 但足以拉動小行星 再加上本身嘅火箭裝置—— 噢,你雖然睇唔到佢 但係嗰度有火箭嘅噴焰—— 小行星同探測器之間嘅重力 將兩者連埋起來 如果你慢慢移動探測器 而又非常非常細力嘅話 你就可以好輕鬆咁將小行星 送入地球上一個安全軌道 甚至可以上去採集礦物 但係嗰個完全係另一件事
(Laughter)
我唔會深入呢個話題(笑)
But we'd be rich!
但係我哋會因此暴富!
(Laughter)
(笑)
So think about this, right? There are these giant rocks flying out there, and they're hitting us, and they're doing damage to us. But we've figured out how to do this, and all the pieces are in place to do this. We have astronomers with telescopes, looking for them. We have very, very smart people, who are concerned about this and figuring out how to fix the problem, and we have the technology to do this. This probe actually can't use chemical rockets. Chemical rockets provide too much thrust, too much push. The probe would just shoot away.
有得諗,好冇? 雖然目前有巨大殞石 將會撞落地球,造成破壞 但係我哋已經諗到點樣解決 每一步都已經就緒 我哋有太空人用望遠鏡搵緊佢哋 我哋有聰明人 關注小行星而且諗緊方法解決 而且我哋有科技輔助—— 實際上呢個探測器唔可以使用化學火箭 化學火箭嘅推力大得制 探測器會打唔中
We invented something called an ion drive, which is a very, very, very low-thrust engine. It generates the force a piece of paper would have on your hand -- incredibly light, but it can run for months and years, providing that very gentle push. If anybody here is a fan of the original "Star Trek," they ran across an alien ship that had an ion drive, and Spock said, "They're very technically sophisticated. They're a hundred years ahead of us with this drive." Yeah, we have an ion drive now. We don't have the Enterprise, but we've got an ion drive now.
所以我哋發明咗叫做離子推動器嘅嘢 佢係一個推力非常細嘅引擎 產生相當於一張擺喺手上嘅紙嘅力 但係佢可以連續幾個月到幾年 提供微小嘅推力 如果呢度有人係《星際旅行》 原版系列嘅支持者就會知道 佢哋揸住一部有離子推動器嘅外星飛船 而且斯波克話︰「佢哋有精密嘅科技。 憑住呢個推動器, 佢哋領先我哋 100 年。」 耶!我哋依家都有咗離子推動器(笑) 我哋冇企業號 但係我哋有離子推動器
(Laughter)
(掌聲)
(Applause)
Spock.
係斯波克話嘅
(Laughter) So ... That's the difference -- that's the difference between us and the dinosaurs. This happened to them. It doesn't have to happen to us. The difference between the dinosaurs and us is that we have a space program and we can vote, and so we can change our future.
(笑) 所以…… 呢個就係分別 就係我哋同恐龍嘅分別 佢哋俾殞石滅絕,但我哋唔一定 我哋同恐龍嘅分別在於我哋有太空計劃 而且我哋可以投票改變未來
(Laughter)
(笑)
We have the ability to change our future. Sixty-five million years from now, we don't have to have our bones collecting dust in a museum. Thank you very much.
我哋有能力去改變未來 六千五百萬年後 我哋嘅骨頭唔會喺博物館裡面惹塵 多謝晒
(Applause)
(掌聲)