Do we live in a borderless world? Before you answer that, have a look at this map. Contemporary political map shows that we have over 200 countries in the world today. That's probably more than at any time in centuries. Now, many of you will object. For you this would be a more appropriate map. You could call it TEDistan. In TEDistan, there are no borders, just connected spaces and unconnected spaces. Most of you probably reside in one of the 40 dots on this screen, of the many more that represent 90 percent of the world economy.
我們是生活在一個沒有國界的世界嗎? 回答這問題前,請先看看這張地圖: 當今的政治地圖顯示 我們的世界超過200個國家, 這可能是好幾世紀以來國家數目最多的時期, 或許很多人會表示反對。 對於你們來說這可能是較適當的地圖。 你可以稱它為TED國圖, 在TED國圖上沒有任何國界, 只有相連和沒有相連的空間。 大部分在場的人可能住在螢幕上 其中四十個亮點之一, 它們代表了九成的世界經濟體。
But let's talk about the 90 percent of the world population that will never leave the place in which they were born. For them, nations, countries, boundaries, borders still matter a great deal, and often violently. Now here at TED, we're solving some of the great riddles of science and mysteries of the universe. Well here is a fundamental problem we have not solved: our basic political geography. How do we distribute ourselves around the world?
但我們來談談那九成 永遠不會離開他們出生地的人們 對他們來說,民族、國家、邊界和國界仍相當重要, 甚至生死相關的重要。 在TED,我們試圖解決 一些在科學和宇宙中的重大謎團。 在這裡就有個我們還沒解決的根本問題: 我們最基本的政治地理。 我們在世界各地是怎麼分布的?
Now this is important, because border conflicts justify so much of the world's military-industrial complex. Border conflicts can derail so much of the progress that we hope to achieve here. So I think we need a deeper understanding of how people, money, power, religion, culture, technology interact to change the map of the world. And we can try to anticipate those changes, and shape them in a more constructive direction.
這相當重要,因為邊界上的爭鬥 往往合理化當今許多軍事/武器產業體系。 邊界衝突會將 我們在那裡許多努力達到的社會進展化為烏有。 所以我想我們有必要更深層的思考 人、財富、權力、 宗教、文化和科技 如何交互作用以改變我們的世界地圖。 我們可以試圖去為這些改變做準備, 讓它們能往更有建設性的方向發展。
So we're going to look at some maps of the past, the present and some maps you haven't seen in order to get a sense of where things are going. Let's start with the world of 1945. 1945 there were just 100 countries in the world. After World War II, Europe was devastated, but still held large overseas colonies: French West Africa, British East Africa, South Asia, and so forth. Then over the late '40s, '50s, '60s, '70s and '80s, waves of decolonization took place. Over 50 new countries were born. You can see that Africa has been fragmented. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South East Asian nations created. Then came the end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. You had the creation of new states in Eastern Europe, the former Yugoslav republics and the Balkans, and the 'stans of central Asia.
所以我們要看看一些過去的地圖、 現在的地圖和你從未見過的地圖 來感受一下事情會怎麼樣發展。 我們先從1945年的世界開始吧! 1945年的時候世界上只有100個國家, 而二戰後歐洲斷垣殘壁, 但仍持有大量的海外殖民地: 法國有西非、英國有東非、南亞等等, 到四零年代尾聲, 五、六、七和八零年代時, 各地區開始一波波的脫離殖民, 超過五十個新國家在這時候誕生。 你可以看到非洲被分的很散碎, 印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和一些東南亞國家生成。 再來就是冷戰結束, 冷戰結束和蘇聯的瓦解。 在東歐我們看到一些新國家建立, 原先的南斯拉夫和巴爾幹地區, 還有中亞的各個尾音是"斯坦"的國家
Today we have 200 countries in the world. The entire planet is covered by sovereign, independent nation-states. Does that mean that someone's gain has to be someone else's loss? Let's zoom in on one of the most strategic areas of the world, Eastern Eurasia. As you can see on this map, Russia is still the largest country in the world. And as you know, China is the most populous. And they share a lengthy land border.
今天我們世界上有兩百個國家, 整個地球都被 有主權、獨立的國家覆蓋住。 這是不是說一些人的得必然是另外一些人的失呢? 我們把焦點放在世界上最有戰略意義的地方之一吧! 歐洲大陸東部。 如你所見, 世界上最大的國家仍是俄羅斯, 也如你所知,中國是人口最多的, 兩國共享一個相當長的邊界,
What you don't see on this map is that most of Russia's 150 million people are concentrated in its western provinces and areas that are close to Europe. And only 30 million people are in its eastern areas. In fact, the World Bank predicts that Russia's population is declining towards about 120 million people
而你無法在這個地圖上看到的是 在俄羅斯的1.5億人中大多數 集中在俄羅斯的西部區域 和鄰近歐洲的地區, 只有3千萬人住在其東部地區。 事實上,世界銀行預測 俄羅斯的人口正在 往大約1.2億人下降。
And there is another thing that you don't see on this map. Stalin, Khrushchev and other Soviet leaders forced Russians out to the far east to be in gulags, labor camps, nuclear cities, whatever the case was. But as oil prices rose, Russian governments have invested in infrastructure to unite the country, east and west. But nothing has more perversely impacted Russia's demographic distribution, because the people in the east, who never wanted to be there anyway, have gotten on those trains and roads and gone back to the west. As a result, in the Russian far east today, which is twice the size of India, you have exactly six million Russians.
另外一個你在這張地圖所看不到的是: 史達林、克魯曉夫和其他前蘇聯領導人 曾經強迫俄羅斯人移居遠東地區 的古拉格、勞動集中營、 核試驗基地,等等。 但隨著油價上漲 俄羅斯政府已開始投資建設基礎建設 來結合國家的東西橫向 這項政策對於俄羅斯的人口分布 造成很大的影響, 因為那些居住在東部的人,本來就不想住那裏, 現在他們有了火車和馬路 就開始往西部遷移, 那就是為什麼東部俄羅斯 雖然是印度的兩倍大 目前只有6萬俄羅斯人。
So let's get a sense of what is happening in this part of the world. We can start with Mongolia, or as some call it, Mine-golia. Why do they call it that? Because in Mine-golia, Chinese firms operate and own most of the mines -- copper, zinc, gold -- and they truck the resources south and east into mainland China. China isn't conquering Mongolia. It's buying it. Colonies were once conquered. Today countries are bought.
所以我們可以看看這部分的世界正在發生甚麼事, 我們先以蒙古開始,或者有些人稱它為 "礦"古 (英文音似Mine) 為什麼人們這麼稱呼它? 因為在蒙古,中國的公司運作 並擁有大部份的礦井 - 鋁、鋅、黃金... 然後他們將這些礦產運往南部和東部到中國。 中國不是在征服蒙古, 他在併購他。 殖民地曾經是被軍事攻占的,而現在的國家是被併購的。
So let's apply this principle to Siberia. Siberia most of you probably think of as a cold, desolate, unlivable place. But in fact, with global warming and rising temperatures, all of a sudden you have vast wheat fields and agribusiness, and grain being produced in Siberia. But who is it going to feed? Well, just on the other side of the Amo River, in the Heilongjiang and Harbin provinces of China, you have over 100 million people. That's larger than the entire population of Russia.
所以我們來將此原則套用到西伯利亞: 你們大部分想到西伯利亞應該是會想像 一個既寒冷、荒蕪又不適合人類居住的地方。 但事實上,因為全球暖化的溫度上升 在當地突然有廣大的麥田 和農業,稻穀在西伯利亞被生產。 但這是要餵養誰呢? 就是在漠河的另外一邊, 中國的黑龍江等省那裡 我們有超過1億的人口, 這比整個俄羅斯的人口都要多。
Every single year, for at least a decade or more, [60,000] of them have been voting with their feet, crossing, moving north and inhabiting this desolate terrain. They set up their own bazaars and medical clinics. They've taken over the timber industry and been shipping the lumber east, back into China. Again, like Mongolia, China isn't conquering Russia. It's just leasing it. That's what I call globalization Chinese style.
至少十年的時間,每一年, 有六萬人會離開這地方, 他們過境,往北移,移居到這個荒涼的地帶, 建立他們自己的市集和診所, 他們接管當地的伐木產業 將木材往東運,運回中國。 就像蒙古, 中國不是在征服俄羅斯,只是在租借它。 這是我所稱的中國式全球化。
Now maybe this is what the map of the region might look like in 10 to 20 years. But hold on. This map is 700 years old. This is the map of the Yuan Dynasty, led by Kublai Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan. So history doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
所以這是這個區域 大概十或二十年後會長的樣子。 但等等! 這張地圖七百多歲了! 這是元朝的地圖, 在忽必烈(成吉思汗的孫子)掌權時的樣子。 所以歷史未必會重演, 但會循一定的模式重複發生
This is just to give you a taste of what's happening in this part of the world. Again, globalization Chinese style. Because globalization opens up all kinds of ways for us to undermine and change the way we think about political geography. So, the history of East Asia in fact, people don't think about nations and borders. They think more in terms of empires and hierarchies, usually Chinese or Japanese.
這就是給你嘗嘗,在世界的這個角落在發生的事。 這又是中國式的全球化, 因為全球化給我們開啟很多機會 去顛覆並改變我們對於政治地理的了解。 所以在中亞的歷史中, 人們不太以國家和邊界來思考, 而是以朝代和統治者, 通常中國的或日本的。
Well it's China's turn again. So let's look at how China is re-establishing that hierarchy in the far East. It starts with the global hubs. Remember the 40 dots on the nighttime map that show the hubs of the global economy? East Asia today has more of those global hubs than any other region in the world. Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sidney. These are the filters and funnels of global capital. Trillions of dollars a year are being brought into the region, so much of it being invested into China.
好,現在我們再看看中國, 看看中國如何重新在 遠東地區建立那樣的統治, 這一切都起源於國際經貿中心, 記得剛剛那夜間地圖的四十個亮點嗎? 他指出的是在我們全球經濟體裡的經貿中心。 東亞現在有更多這樣的經貿中心 甚過世界上任何一個地區。 東京、首爾、北京、上海、 香港、新加坡、雪梨 這些都是全球資金的過濾網, 上以兆計的前每年都被帶入這些地區, 許多是投資到中國。
Then there is trade. These vectors and arrows represent ever stronger trade relationships that China has with every country in the region. Specifically, it targets Japan and Korea and Australia, countries that are strong allies of the United States. Australia, for example, is heavily dependent on exporting iron ore and natural gas to China. For poorer countries, China reduces tariffs so that Laos and Cambodia can sell their goods more cheaply and become dependent on exporting to China as well.
再來有貿易, 這些箭頭顯示的是中國 與當地其它國家 愈來愈緊密的關係。 最主要它瞄準日本、 韓國和澳洲。 與美國有深厚聯盟的國家。 比如說澳洲對於外銷 鐵礦和天然氣到中國有強烈的依賴性。 對於較窮的國家,中國降低關稅, 這樣寮國和柬埔寨可以用更低廉的價格外銷產品, 而因此對產品出口到中國也產生依賴性。
And now many of you have been reading in the news how people are looking to China to lead the rebound, the economic rebound, not just in Asia, but potentially for the world. The Asian free trade zone, almost free trade zone, that's emerging now has a greater trade volume than trade across the Pacific. So China is becoming the anchor of the economy in the region.
相信你們很多人有在看新聞, 看人們怎麼看待中國 將如何去領導經濟復甦,不只在亞洲,而是全世界。 亞洲漸漸形成的自由貿易區,幾乎是自由貿易區, 現在有比太平洋彼岸還大的經貿量, 所以中國已漸漸成為此地區的靠山。
Another pillar of this strategy is diplomacy. China has signed military agreements with many countries in the region. It has become the hub of diplomatic institutions such as the East Asian Community. Some of these organizations don't even have the United States as a member. There is a treaty of nonaggression between countries, such that if there were a conflict between China and the United States, most countries vow to just sit it out, including American allies like Korea and Australia.
在這個策略之下另一個重點是外交, 中國與該地區許多國家簽訂了軍事協定, 它已成為外交機構的中心, 比如說東亞的社區。 有些這樣的組織會員甚至不包括 美國。 各國之間建立了互不干涉條約, 假使中國與美國發生衝突, 大部分國家會宣誓中立, 包括韓國和澳大利亞等美國盟友。
Another pillar of the strategy, like Russia, is demographic. China exports business people, nannies, students, teachers to teach Chinese around the region, to intermarry and to occupy ever greater commanding heights of the economies. Already ethnic Chinese people in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia are the real key factors and drivers in the economies there. Chinese pride is resurgent in the region as a result. Singapore, for example, used to ban Chinese language education. Now it encourages it.
在這策略的另一個重點, 像俄羅斯一樣,是人口。 中國向外輸出商人、保姆、學生、 和老師,在整個區域內教授中文, 彼此通婚,以及在各個經濟體中 佔據史無前例的主導性地位。 已經可以看到中國人 在馬來西亞、泰國和印尼等國家 成為了當地經濟不容忽視的 關鍵因素和推動力。 因此在這些地區,中國人的驕傲 再次復甦 比如說新加坡曾經禁止學習中文, 現在他們鼓勵學習中文。
If you add it all up what do you get? Well, if you remember before World War II, Japan had a vision for a greater Japanese co-prosperity sphere. What's emerging today is what you might call a greater Chinese co-prosperity sphere. So no matter what the lines on the map tell you in terms of nations and borders, what you really have emerging in the far east are national cultures, but in a much more fluid, imperial zone. All of this is happening without firing a shot.
如果你們把這些東西全部加起來你會得到甚麼結論? 如果你記得,二次世界大戰前, 日本曾有一個願景, 想建立一個日本大東亞共榮圈。 而現今正在漸漸浮現的你可以稱為 中國大東亞共榮圈。 所以不管世界地圖如何告訴你這是 國家的邊界, 在亞洲真正的狀況是, 國家的文化, 但在一種更動態,帝國的趨向。 這一切就自然而然的發生了,
That's most certainly not the case in the Middle East where countries are still very uncomfortable in the borders left behind by European colonialists. So what can we do to think about borders differently in this part of the world? What lines on the map should we focus on? What I want to present to you is what I call state building, day by day.
而在中東絕對不是這樣的狀態! 在那裏國家對於 歐洲殖民者遺留下來的國界還是相當不適應。 所以我們在那個地方對於國界有甚麼樣的見解? 地圖上我們該注意哪些線? 我想要給你看的是 國家的建立,每日進度。
Let's start with Iraq. Six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the country still exists more on a map than it does in reality. Oil used to be one of the forces holding Iraq together; now it is the most significant cause of the country's disintegration. The reason is Kurdistan. The Kurds for 3,000 years have been waging a struggle for independence, and now is their chance to finally have it. These are pipeline routes, which emerge from Kurdistan, which is an oil-rich region.
我們以伊拉克為起點吧! 在美國入侵伊拉克之後的第六年, 這個國家在地圖上的存在,比現實還真實。 石油曾經是維繫伊拉克的要素之一, 現在卻是此國家瓦解的重要原因。 這原因是因為庫德斯坦; 庫德族三千年以來 就在爭取獨立, 而現在是他們獨立的契機。 這些是從庫德斯坦出來的管線, 它們的區域富含石油。
And today, if you go to Kurdistan, you'll see that Kurdish Peshmerga guerillas are squaring off against the Sunni Iraqi army. But what are they guarding? Is it really a border on the map? No. It's the pipelines. If the Kurds can control their pipelines, they can set the terms of their own statehood. Now should we be upset about this, about the potential disintegration of Iraq? I don't believe we should. Iraq will still be the second largest oil producer in the world, behind Saudi Arabia. And we'll have a chance to solve a 3,000 year old dispute. Now remember Kurdistan is landlocked. It has no choice but to behave. In order to profit from its oil it has to export it through Turkey or Syria, and other countries, and Iraq itself. And therefore it has to have amicable relations with them.
而當今,如果你進入庫德斯坦, 你會看到庫德族的Peshmerga游擊隊 正在跟伊拉克的遜尼軍隊作戰。 但他們在守護甚麼? 真的是地圖上的邊界嗎? 不,是那些管線。 如果庫德人可以控制管線,他們就可以控制 談他們國家建立的條件。 我們應該為伊拉克可能的瓦解擔憂嗎? 我並不認為。 伊拉克仍會是世界上第二大產油國, 第一是沙烏地阿拉伯, 而我們有機會解決一個維持三千年的爭議。 注意,庫德斯坦四周皆是陸地, 它不得不守規矩 為了能從石油獲益, 它需將石油輸出到其它國家,如土耳其、敘利亞 還有伊拉克本身, 所以它與這些國家的關係必須維持好。
Now lets look at a perennial conflict in the region. That is, of course, in Palestine. Palestine is something of a cartographic anomaly because it's two parts Palestinian, one part Israel. 30 years of rose garden diplomacy have not delivered us peace in this conflict. What might? I believe that what might solve the problem is infrastructure. Today donors are spending billions of dollars on this. These two arrows are an arc, an arc of commuter railroads and other infrastructure that link the West Bank and Gaza.
現在我們來看看此區另一個連年不斷的衝突, 這當然是指巴勒斯坦: 從地圖上看是一個畸形兒, 因為它由兩部分巴勒斯坦和一部分以色列組成。 30年的玫瑰花園外交 (指白宮的玫瑰花園) 並沒有給這裡的區域衝突中帶來和平。 那甚麼能給他們帶來和平呢? 我相信 可以解決這問題的是基礎建設。 今天,捐助者正花費數十億美金在此項目上。 這兩個箭頭連成一條弧線, 一條由客運火車線和其它基礎設施連成的弧線 連接西岸和加薩地帶。
If Gaza can have a functioning port and be linked to the West Bank, you can have a viable Palestinian state, Palestinian economy. That, I believe, is going to bring peace to this particular conflict. The lesson from Kurdistan and from Palestine is that independence alone, without infrastructure, is futile.
如果加薩可以有一個可運作的港口, 然後這個港口可以連接西岸,你就有一個可運作的巴勒斯坦國, 巴勒斯坦經濟。 這,我相信,可以將和平帶到這個區域。 從庫德斯坦和巴勒斯坦我們可以得到的教訓是 光有獨立,沒有基本建設 是沒有用的。
Now what might this entire region look like if in fact we focus on other lines on the map besides borders, when the insecurities might abate? The last time that was the case was actually a century ago, during the Ottoman Empire. This is the Hejaz Railway. The Hejaz Railway ran from Istanbul to Medina via Damascus. It even had an offshoot running to Haifa in what is today Israel, on the Mediterranean Sea. But today the Hejaz Railway lies in tatters, ruins. If we were to focus on reconstructing these curvy lines on the map, infrastructure, that cross the straight lines, the borders, I believe the Middle East would be a far more peaceful region.
那我們想想這整個區域 如果我們不只專注在地圖上的國界,會有甚麼不一樣? 不安感甚麼時候才會消除? 我們最後看到這樣的例子是 一個世紀前,奧圖曼圖耳其帝國的時候 這是Hijaz鐵路線。 Hijaz鐵路線從伊斯坦堡出發,途經大馬士革,抵達麥地那。 它甚至有一條支線可以抵達海法, 位於今天的以色列,緊靠地中海。 但是今天的Hijaz鐵路線破敗不堪。 如果我們可以將地圖上這些曲線重新建造起來的話, 重建這些穿越直線、疆界的基礎建設, 我相信中東會成為一個遠比現在還和平的地區。
Now let's look at another part of the world, the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, the 'stans. These countries' borders originate from Stalin's decrees. He purposely did not want these countries to make sense. He wanted ethnicities to mingle in ways that would allow him to divide and rule. Fortunately for them, most of their oil and gas resources were discovered after the Soviet Union collapsed.
讓我們將目光轉移到地球上的另外一個區域, 位於中亞地區的前蘇聯地區,這些斯坦國。 這些國家的邊界線,源自史達林頒布的法令, 他刻意將這些國家分割得七零八落, 他想讓不同種族混合 這樣分裂就容易統治。 幸好這些國家大多數的石油和天然氣資源 在蘇聯瓦解後才被發現。
Now I know some of you may be thinking, "Oil, oil, oil. Why is it all he's talking about is oil?" Well, there is a big difference in the way we used to talk about oil and the way we're talking about it now. Before it was, how do we control their oil? Now it's their oil for their own purposes. And I assure you it's every bit as important to them as it might have been to colonizers and imperialists. Here are just some of the pipeline projections and possibilities and scenarios and routes that are being mapped out for the next several decades. A great deal of them.
現在我知道你們可能都在想: "油、油、油" 他為什麼一直講油?" 注意,以前我們討論石油的方式 和現在我們所討論的方式是大不相同的。 以前是: 我們要怎麼控制他們的油? 現在是他們的油,他們自己要用, 而且我打包票這對他們 和對當初的殖民、帝國主義者一樣重要。 這裡是一些計劃中的 輸油管道和一些可能的情況 以及接下來幾十年可能的計畫 , 這有許多。
For a number of countries in this part of the world, having pipelines is the ticket to becoming part of the global economy and for having some meaning besides the borders that they are not loyal to themselves. Just take Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was a forgotten corner of the Caucuses, but now with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into Turkey, it has rebranded itself as the frontier of the west.
對於這個區域上許多國家, 管線是個能參與世界經濟體的門票 也是讓自己有存在感 在連它們自己都無法認同的邊界以外。 看看亞塞拜然的例子 亞塞拜然位於高加索一個被遺忘的角落 但是隨著通往土耳其的Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan輸油管道, 它已重新將自己定義為西方的前哨。
Then there is Turkmenistan, which most people think of as a frozen basket case. But now it's contributing gas across the Caspian Sea to provide for Europe, and even a potentially Turkmen- Afghan-Pakistan-India pipeline as well.
再來是土庫曼(斯坦),大多數人對這地方的印象是 天寒地凍毫無希望之地。 但是現在它能穿越裡海,將天然氣 輸往歐洲, 甚至有可能建造土庫曼- 阿富汗-巴基斯坦-印度輸油管道。
Then there is Kazakhstan, which didn't even have a name before. It was more considered South Siberia during the Soviet Union. Today most people recognize Kazakhstan as an emerging geopolitical player. Why? Because it has shrewdly designed pipelines to flow across the Caspian, north through Russia, and even east to China. More pipelines means more silk roads, instead of the Great Game. The Great Game connotes dominance of one over the other. Silk road connotes independence and mutual trust. The more pipelines we have, the more silk roads we'll have, and the less of a dominant Great Game competition we'll have in the 21st century.
還有哈薩克(斯坦),之前甚至沒有一個正式的名字。 在蘇聯時期它被稱作南西伯利亞。 而現在大部分人都認為哈薩克是一個 新興的地緣政治角色。為什麼? 因為它機智地設計了穿越裡海的輸油管道, 往北進入俄羅斯,甚至向西進入中國。 管道越多,意味著“絲綢之路”越多,而不再是(英俄19世紀)中亞大博弈。 大博弈是只被另一國家管轄, 而絲綢之路代表著獨立和相互的信任。 我們有更多管線,我們就會有更多絲路, 有一個較不被他人主導的大博弈競賽 這是我們的二十一世紀。
Now let's look at the only part of the world that really has brought down its borders, and how that has enhanced its strength. And that is, of course, Europe. The European Union began as just the coal and steel community of six countries, and their main purpose was really to keep the rehabilitation of Germany to happen in a peaceful way. But then eventually it grew into 12 countries, and those are the 12 stars on the European flag. The E.U. also became a currency block, and is now the most powerful trade block in the entire world. On average, the E.U. has grown by one country per year since the end of the Cold War. In fact most of that happened on just one day. In 2004, 15 new countries joined the E.U. and now you have what most people consider a zone of peace spanning 27 countries and 450 million people.
現在我們看看全世界唯一去除邊界的地區, 和它如何因此而更加強健, 這就是歐洲。 歐洲聯盟剛開始只是六個國家間的煤鋼共同體, 主要的目的只是為了讓德國的復甦 能以和平的方式進行。 不過它見見形成十二個國家, 和在歐盟旗幟上的十二顆星星。 歐盟同時也成為一個貨幣體 而現在是整個世界最強大的貿易體。 自從冷戰結束後,歐盟平均 每年多一個國家, 其實所有的事幾乎在一夕間發生: 2004年,十五個國家加入了歐盟, 而現在,我們有可以說是 一個和平區,跨27國、 和4.5億人口。
So what is next? What is the future of the European Union? Well in light blue, you see the zones or the regions that are at least two-thirds or more dependent on the European Union for trade and investment. What does that tell us? Trade and investment tell us that Europe is putting its money where its mouth is. Even if these regions aren't part of the E.U., they are becoming part of its sphere of influence. Just take the Balkans. Croatia, Serbia Bosnia, they're not members of the E.U. yet. But you can get on a German ICE train and make it almost to Albania. In Bosnia you use the Euro currency already, and that's the only currency they're probably ever going to have.
所以接下來會怎麼樣? 歐盟的未來是甚麼? 在你看到的淺藍色的區域 至少三分之二以上 是必須仰賴歐盟 以進行貿易和投資。 這告訴我們甚麼? 貿易和投資告訴我們 歐洲並不是在紙上談兵, 即使這些區域並不是歐盟的一部分, 它們漸漸的成為其影響環的一部分。 看看巴爾幹半島:克羅埃西亞、塞爾維亞、 波斯尼亞 ,他們還不是歐盟的成員, 但是你如果登上一輛德國ICE火車 你幾乎可以到阿爾巴尼亞。 在波斯尼亞,你可以使用歐元, 也許這將是他們從此以後的唯一貨幣。
So, looking at other parts of Europe's periphery, such as North Africa. On average, every year or two, a new oil or gas pipeline opens up under the Mediterranean, connecting North Africa to Europe. That not only helps Europe diminish its reliance on Russia for energy, but if you travel to North Africa today, you'll hear more and more people saying that they don't really think of their region as the Middle East. So in other words, I believe that President Sarkozy of France is right when he talks about a Mediterranean union.
讓我們看一下歐洲的外圍,例如北非。 平均每年或者每兩年, 會有一條新的石油或者天然氣運輸管道穿越地中海, 將北非與歐洲連接到一起。 這不僅僅幫助歐洲減少了 對俄羅斯在能源上的依賴, 而且如果你今天去北非旅遊,你會聽到越來越多的人 說他們並不屬於中東地區。 也就是說,我非常認同法國總統薩科齊 對於地中海聯盟的觀點。
Now let's look at Turkey and the Caucasus. I mentioned Azerbaijan before. That corridor of Turkey and the Caucasus has become the conduit for 20 percent of Europe's energy supply. So does Turkey really have to be a member of the European Union? I don't think it does. I think it's already part of a Euro-Turkish superpower.
再來看一下土耳其,和高加索國家。 我之前提到過亞塞拜然, 土耳其和高加索地區的那條走廊 已經成為歐洲 20%能源供應的通道。 所以土耳其非得成為歐盟成員國嗎? 我認為不然。我認為它已經是 歐洲-土耳其這個結構中的一個超級力量了。
So what's next? Where are we going to see borders change and new countries born? Well, South Central Asia, South West Asia is a very good place to start. Eight years after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan there is still a tremendous amount of instability. Pakistan and Afghanistan are still so fragile that neither of them have dealt constructively with the problem of Pashtun nationalism. This is the flag that flies in the minds of 20 million Pashtuns who live on both sides of the Afghan and Pakistan border.
那麼接下來呢?我們會在哪些地方看到邊界線的改變 以及新國家的誕生? 南亞中心地區,西南亞地區 是一個很有可能的地方。 在美國入侵阿富汗8年之後 這個地區仍然充滿了巨大的不穩定性。 巴基斯坦和阿富汗仍然如此脆弱 以至於他們都沒有實質性地 處理普什圖人的民族主義問題。 這是存在於2000萬普什圖人 心目中的國旗, 他們住在阿富汗和巴基斯坦邊界線的兩邊。
Let's not neglect the insurgency just to the south, Balochistan. Two weeks ago, Balochi rebels attacked a Pakistani military garrison, and this was the flag that they raised over it. The post-colonial entropy that is happening around the world is accelerating, and I expect more such changes to occur in the map as the states fragment.
不要忘了在南部還有動亂。 在俾路支。兩週前, 俾路支叛軍攻擊了巴基斯坦的一個軍事守備部隊, 這就是他們在攻擊時舉起的旗幟。 後殖民時期國家的解體 在全球發生並在加速。 我預期地圖上如此的改變 會隨著這些國家的分解而越來越多。
Of course, we can't forget Africa. 53 countries, and by far the most number of suspiciously straight lines on the map. If we were to look at all of Africa we could most certainly acknowledge far more, tribal divisions and so forth. But let's just look at Sudan, the second-largest country in Africa. It has three ongoing civil wars, the genocide in Darfur, which you all know about, the civil war in the east of the country, and south Sudan. South Sudan is going to be having a referendum in 2011 in which it is very likely to vote itself independence.
當然我們無法忘記非洲, 五十三個國家,和最多 地圖上相當可疑的直線 如果我們看看整個非洲 我們肯定能認識到那邊有(比地圖上國家)更多的 部落、族群分野。 我們來看看蘇丹,非洲第二大國家: 它有三個正在進行中的內戰, 達佛(Darfur)的種族屠殺,這你們肯定聽過, 還有國家東部的內戰, 和南蘇丹。 南蘇丹在2011年將會舉辦一個公投, 很有可能會選擇讓自己獨立。
Now let's go up to the Arctic Circle. There is a great race on for energy resources under the Arctic seabed. Who will win? Canada? Russia? The United States? Actually Greenland. Several weeks ago Greenland's [60,000] people voted themselves self-governance rights from Denmark. So Denmark is about to get a whole lot smaller.
我們現在來看看極圈: 這裡正上演著一場對北極海床底下 能源的爭奪戰。 誰會勝利?加拿大?俄羅斯?還是美國? 事實上格陵蘭島將是贏家。 數週前,格陵蘭島的6萬居民投票表決, 取得了從丹麥獨立 的自治權。 因而丹麥將會縮小很多。
What is the lesson from all of this? Geopolitics is a very unsentimental discipline. It's constantly morphing and changing the world, like climate change. And like our relationship with the ecosystem we're always searching for equilibrium in how we divide ourselves across the planet. Now we fear changes on the map. We fear civil wars, death tolls, having to learn the names of new countries. But I believe that the inertia of the existing borders that we have today is far worse and far more violent.
這裡得出的教訓是什麼呢? 地緣政治是一個非常冷酷的學科。 它不斷地改變世界, 就如氣候變化。 正如我們與生態系統的關係一樣, 我們總在尋找一種 我們如何在這星球上分布的平衡。 我們害怕地圖上的這些改變。 我們害怕戰爭、死亡, 以及需要去學習新的國家的名字等。 但我相信我們對當下存在的邊境所存有的無力感, 是更糟糕、更暴力的。
The question is how do we change those borders, and what lines do we focus on? I believe we focus on the lines that cross borders, the infrastructure lines. Then we'll wind up with the world we want, a borderless one. Thank you. (Applause)
問題是我們該如何去改變這些邊界, 和我們應專注在哪些線上? 我相信我們應專注在跨國界的線, 那些基礎建設線路, 這樣我們才可以擁有一個我們想要的世界,一個沒有邊界的世界。 謝謝。 (掌聲)