Fortællingen om et voksende Afrika er udfordret.
The narrative of a rising Africa is being challenged.
For omkring ti år siden snakkede jeg om et Afrika, et Afrika af håb og muligheder, et Afrika af entreprenører, et Afrika meget anderledes end det Afrika, som man normalt hører om, af død, fattigdom og sygdom. Og det, som jeg snakkede om, blev en del af, hvad der nu er kendt som fortællingen om et voksende Afrika.
About 10 years ago, I spoke about an Africa, an Africa of hope and opportunity, an Africa of entrepreneurs, an Africa very different from the Africa that you normally hear about of death, poverty and disease. And that what I spoke about, became part of what is known now as the narrative of the rising Africa.
Jeg vil fortælle jer to historier om dette voksende Afrika. Den første har at gøre med Rwanda, et land, som har gennemgået mange prøver og trængsler. Rwanda har besluttet sig for at blive et teknologicentrum på kontinentet. Det er et bjergrigt land med et kuperet terræn, lidt ligesom her, så det er svært at levere tjenesteydelser til folk. Så hvad har Rwanda sagt? For at redde liv, vil man bruge droner til at levere livsvigtig medicin, vacciner og blod til folk i ufremkommelige områder i samarbejde med et firma, der hedder Zipline, med UPS og med Gavi, en global vaccine alliance. Ved at gøre dette, vil man redde liv. Dette er en form for innovation, vi gerne vil se i det voksende Afrika.
I want to tell you two stories about this rising Africa. The first has to do with Rwanda, a country that has gone through many trials and tribulations. And Rwanda has decided to become the technology hub, or a technology hub on the continent. It's a country with mountainous and hilly terrain, a little bit like here, so it's very difficult to deliver services to people. So what has Rwanda said? In order to save lives, it's going to try using drones to deliver lifesaving drugs, vaccines and blood to people in hard-to-reach places in partnership with a company called Zipline, with UPS, and also with the Gavi, a global vaccine alliance. In doing this, it will save lives. This is part of the type of innovation we want to see in the rising Africa.
Den anden historie har at gøre med noget, som jeg er sikker på, at de fleste af jer har set eller kan huske. Ofte lider lande i Afrika af tørke og oversvømmelse, og det sker mere hyppigt på grund af klimaændringer. Når dette sker, venter de normalt på, at internationale appeller skaffer penge. Man ser billeder af børn med fluer i deres ansigter, rådnende kroppe af døde dyr og så videre. Disse 32 lande gik i stedet for sammen under ledelse af den Den Afrikanske Union og besluttede at danne en organisation, kaldet Den Afrikanske Risiko Kapacitet. Hvad gør den? Det er et vejrbaseret forsikringsselskab, og hvert år betaler disse lande forsikring, omkring 3 mio. dollars om året af deres egne ressourcer, så i tilfælde af, at der er en tørkeperiode eller en oversvømmelse, vil der blive udbetalt penge til dem, som de kan bruge til at tage sig af befolkningen, i stedet for at vente på, at der kommer hjælp. Den Afrikanske Risiko Kapacitet udbetalte sidste år 26 mio. dollars til Mauretanien, Senegal og Niger. Det gjorde, at de kunne tage sig af 1.3 mio. mennesker, der var udsat for tørke. De var i stand til at genoprette folks levebrød, købe foder til kvæg, give skolebørn mad og på kort sigt holde befolkningen hjemme i stedet for at de migrerede ud af området.
The second story has to do with something that I'm sure most of you have seen or will remember. Very often, countries in Africa suffer drought and floods, and it's getting more frequent because of climate change effects. When this happens, they normally wait for international appeals to raise money. You see pictures of children with flies on their faces, carcasses of dead animals and so on. Now these countries, 32 countries, came together under the auspices of the African Union and decided to form an organization called the African Risk Capacity. What does it do? It's a weather-based insurance agency, and what these countries do is to pay insurance each year, about 3 million dollars a year of their own resources, so that in the event they have a difficult drought situation or flood, this money will be paid out to them, which they can then use to take care of their populations, instead of waiting for aid to come. The African Risk Capacity last year paid 26 million dollars to Mauritania, Senegal and Niger. This enabled them to take care of 1.3 million people affected by drought. They were able to restore livelihoods, buy fodder for cattle, feed children in school and in short keep the populations home instead of migrating out of the area.
Så dette er historier om et Afrika, der er klar til at tage ansvar for sig selv, og til at lede efter løsninger til sine egne problemer. Men den fortælling er udfordret i øjeblikket, fordi kontinentet ikke har klaret sig godt i de sidste to år. Det er vokset med fem procent om året gennem det sidste halvandet årti, men dette års prognose var kun tre procent. Hvorfor? I et usikkert, globalt miljø er råvarepriserne faldet. Mange af økonomierne er stadig drevet af råvarer, og derfor er deres resultater faldet. Og nu gør spørgsmålet om Brexit det ikke meget lettere. Jeg anede ikke, at Brexit kunne ske og at det ville være noget, der skaber global usikkerhed, sådan som vi har set.
So these are the kinds of stories of an Africa ready to take responsibility for itself, and to look for solutions for its own problems. But that narrative is being challenged now because the continent has not been doing well in the last two years. It had been growing at five percent per annum for the last one and a half decades, but this year's forecast was three percent. Why? In an uncertain global environment, commodity prices have fallen. Many of the economies are still commodity driven, and therefore their performance has slipped. And now the issue of Brexit doesn't make it any easier. I never knew that the Brexit could happen and that it could be one of the things that would cause global uncertainty such as we have.
Så nu står vi i en situation, og jeg synes, at det er på tide at gøre status, og snakke om, hvad de afrikanske lande gjorde rigtigt? Hvad gjorde de forkert? Hvordan skal vi bygge videre på dette og lære lektien, så vi fortsat kan få Afrika til at vokse?
So now we've got this situation, and I think it's time to take stock and to say what were the things that the African countries did right? What did they do wrong? How do we build on all of this and learn lessons so that we can keep Africa rising?
Jeg vil snakke om seks ting, som jeg synes, vi gjorde rigtigt. Den første er at administrere vores økonomi bedre. 80'erne og 90'erne var de fortabte årtier, da Afrika ikke klarede sig godt, og nogen kan måske huske en "Economist" forside, som kaldte det "Det fortabte kontinent." Men i 00'erne lærte politikerne, at de skulle administrere det makroøkonomiske miljø bedre, for at sikre stabilitet, holde inflationen nede på et enkelt ciffer, holde det offentlige budgetunderskud lavt, under tre procent af BNP, give investorer - både indenlandske og udenlandske - en stabilitet, så de ville have tillid til at investere i disse økonomier. Det var nummer et.
So let me talk about six things that I think we did right. The first is managing our economies better. The '80s and '90s were the lost decades, when Africa was not doing well, and some of you will remember an "Economist" cover that said, "The Lost Continent." But in the 2000s, policymakers learned that they needed to manage the macroeconomic environment better, to ensure stability, keep inflation low in single digits, keep their fiscal deficits low, below three percent of GDP, give investors, both domestic and foreign, some stability so they'll have confidence to invest in these economies. So that was number one.
To, gæld. I 1994 var gælden i forhold til BNP på 130 procent i afrikanske lande, og de havde ikke noget økonomisk råderum. De kunne ikke bruge deres ressourcer til at investere i udvikling, fordi de skulle betale deres gæld. Der er måske nogen her i rummet, som arbejdede på at støtte afrikanske lande i at få gældssanering. Private kreditorer, multilaterale og bilaterale gik sammen og besluttede at danne De Forgældede Fattige Landes initiativ og give gældssanering. Denne gældssanering i 2005 gjorde at gælden i forhold til BNP faldt til omkring 30 procent, og der var nok ressourcer til at geninvestere.
Two, debt. In 1994, the debt-to-GDP ratio of African countries was 130 percent, and they didn't have fiscal space. They couldn't use their resources to invest in their development because they were paying debt. There may be some of you in this room who worked to support African countries to get debt relief. So private creditors, multilaterals and bilaterals came together and decided to do the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and give debt relief. So this debt relief in 2005 made the debt-to-GDP ratio fall down to about 30 percent, and there was enough resources to try and reinvest.
Den tredje ting var tabsgivende virksomheder. Regeringer blandede sig i sager, som de ikke skulle blande sig i. De styrede virksomheder, der skabte store tab. Så nogen af disse virksomheder blev omstruktureret, markedsført, privatiseret eller lukket, og de blev en mindre byrde for regeringen.
The third thing was loss-making enterprises. Governments were involved in business which they had no business being in. And they were running businesses, they were making losses. So some of these enterprises were restructured, commercialized, privatized or closed, and they became less of a burden on government.
Den fjerde ting var meget interessant. Revolutionen inden for telekommunikation kom og afrikanske lande var med i den. I 2000 havde vi elleve millioner telefonlinjer. I dag har vi omkring 687 millioner telefonlinjer på kontinentet. Dette har gjort det muligt for os at komme frem med mobilteknologi, hvor Afrika faktisk er førende. I Kenya blev mobilpenge udviklet -- -- M-Pesa, som i alle har hørt om -- Det tog lidt tid for resten af verden at opdage, at Afrika var foran indenfor denne form for teknologi. Denne form for mobilpenge skaber også en platform, der er en adgang til alternativ energi. Folk kan nu betale for solenergi på samme måde, som når de betaler for deres telefon. Så det var en virkelig god udvikling, noget der gik godt.
The fourth thing was a very interesting thing. The telecoms revolution came, and African countries jumped on it. In 2000, we had 11 million phone lines. Today, we have about 687 million mobile lines on the continent. And this has enabled us to go, move forward with some mobile technology where Africa is actually leading. In Kenya, the development of mobile money -- M-Pesa, which all of you have heard about -- it took some time for the world to notice that Africa was ahead in this particular technology. And this mobile money is also providing a platform for access to alternative energy. You know, people who can now pay for solar the same way they pay for cards for their telephone. So this was a very good development, something that went right.
Vi investerede også mere i uddannelse og sundhed, ikke nok, men der var nogen forbedringer. 250 millioner børn blev vaccineret gennem det sidste halvandet årti.
We also invested more in education and health, not enough, but there were some improvements. 250 million children were immunized in the last one and a half decades.
En anden ting var, at der var færre konflikter. Der var mange konflikter på kontinentet. Mange af jer er klar over det. Men de blev stoppet, og det lykkedes endda vores ledere at få stoppet nogen kup. Nye typer af konflikter er opstået, dem vil jeg snakke om senere.
The other thing was that conflicts decreased. There were many conflicts on the continent. Many of you are aware of that. But they came down, and our leaders even managed to dampen some coups. New types of conflicts have emerged, and I'll refer to those later.
Så på baggrund af alt dette, er der altså stadig nogen forskelle, som jeg synes, i skal kende, fordi selvom det virker dystert og dommedagsagtigt, så er der stadig lande -- Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Etiopien, Tanzania og Senegal, som klarer sig relativt godt.
So based on all this, there's also some differentiation on the continent that I want you to know about, because even as the doom and gloom is here, there are some countries -- Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Senegal are performing relatively well at the moment.
Men hvad gjorde vi forkert? Jeg vil snakke om otte ting. Man skal have flere forkerte end rigtige ting.
But what did we do wrong? Let me mention eight things. You have to have more things wrong than right.
(Latter)
(Laughter)
Der er altså otte ting, som vi gjorde forkert. Det første er, at selvom vi voksede, skabte vi ikke nok jobs. Vi skabte ikke job til ungdommen. Arbejdsløshed blandt unge på kontinentet er omkring 15 procent, og underbeskæftigelse er et alvorligt problem.
So there are eight things we did wrong. The first was that even though we grew, we didn't create enough jobs. We didn't create jobs for our youth. Youth unemployment on the continent is about 15 percent, and underemployment is a serious problem.
Det andet var, at kvaliteten af vækst ikke var god nok. Selv de job, som vi skabte, var lavproduktivitetsjob, så vi flyttede folk fra lavproduktivitetsjob i landbrug til lavproduktivitets- handel og jobs i den uformelle sektor i byområderne.
The second thing that we did is that the quality of growth was not good enough. Even those jobs we created were low-productivity jobs, so we moved people from low-productivity agriculture to low-productivity commerce and working in the informal sector in the urban areas.
Den tredje ting er, at uligheden voksede. Så vi skabte flere milliardærer. 50 milliardærer til en værdi af 96 milliarder dollars har en større formue end de fattigste 75 millioner mennesker.
The third thing is that inequality increased. So we created more billionaires. 50 billionaires worth 96 billion dollars own more wealth than the bottom 75 million people on the continent.
Fattigdom, andelen af mennesker i fattigdom -- det er den fjerde ting -- faldt, men det endelige antal gjorde ikke pga. befolkningsvækst. Og befolkningsvækst er noget, som vi ikke snakker nok om på kontinentet. Og det er noget, vi bliver nødt til at få styr på, især hvordan vi uddanner piger. Det er vejen til at få løst dette problem.
Poverty, the proportion of people in poverty -- that's the fourth thing -- did decrease, but the absolute numbers did not because of population growth. And population growth is something that we don't have enough of a dialogue about on the continent. And I think we will need to get a handle on it, particularly how we educate girls. That is the road to really working on this particular issue.
Den femte ting er, at vi ikke investerede nok i infrastruktur. Vi havde investeringer fra kineserne. Det hjalp nogen lande, men det er ikke nok. Forbruget af elektricitet på det afrikanske kontinent syd for Sahara svarer til det i Spanien. Det totale forbrug svarer til det i Spanien. Så mange mennesker lever i mørke, og som formanden for Den Afrikanske Udviklings Bank sagde, Afrika kan ikke udvikle sig i mørke.
The fifth thing is that we didn't invest enough in infrastructure. We had investment from the Chinese. That helped some countries, but it's not enough. The consumption of electricity in Africa on the continent in Sub-Saharan Africa is equivalent to Spain. The total consumption is equivalent to that of Spain. So many people are living in the dark, and as the President of the African Development Bank said recently, Africa cannot develop in the dark.
En anden ting vi ikke har fået gjort, er at vores økonomi har den samme struktur, som den har haft i årtier. Så selvom vi er vokset, har vores økonomiske struktur ikke ændret sig særlig meget. Vi eksporterer stadig handelsvarer, og hvad betyder det? At vi eksporterer jobs. Værditilvæksten i vores produktion er kun 11 procent. Vi skaber ikke nok anstændige jobs inden for produktion til vores ungdom, og handlen blandt os selv er lav. Kun omkring 12 procent af vores handel er blandt os selv. Det er et andet alvorligt problem.
The other thing we have not done is that our economies retain the same structure that we've had for decades. So even though we've been growing, the structure of the economies has not changed very much. We are still exporting commodities, and exporting commodities is what? It's exporting jobs. Our manufacturing value-added is only 11 percent. We are not creating enough decent manufacturing jobs for our youth, and trade among ourselves is low. Only about 12 percent of our trade is among ourselves. So that's another serious problem.
Så er der regeringsførelsen. Det er et alvorligt emne. Vi har svage institutioner, nogen gange ikke-eksisterende, og jeg tror, at det fører til korruption. Korruption er noget, som vi ikke endnu har fået ordentligt styr på, og vi må kæmpe med næb og kløer og med større gennemsigtighed i den måde vi styrer vores økonomi på og den måde vi styrer vores offentlige budget på.
Then governance. Governance is a serious issue. We have weak institutions, and sometimes nonexistent institutions, and I think this gives way for corruption. Corruption is an issue that we have not yet gotten a good enough handle on, and we have to fight tooth and nail, that and increased transparency in the way we manage our economies and the way we manage our finances.
Vi må også være på vagt overfor nye konflikter, nye typer af konflikter, sådan som vi har været med Boko Haram i mit land, Nigeria, og med Al-Shabaab i Kenya. Vi bliver nødt til at samarbejde med internationale partnere, udviklede lande, for at bekæmpe dette sammen. Ellers skaber vi en ny virkelighed, som ikke er af den slags, vi ønsker for et voksende Afrika.
We also need to be wary of new conflicts, new types of conflicts, such as we have with Boko Haram in my country, Nigeria, and with Al-Shabaab in Kenya. We need to partner with international partners, developed countries, to fight this together. Otherwise, we create a new reality which is not the type we want for a rising Africa.
Og endelig, spørgsmålet om uddannelse. Vores uddannelsessystem i mange lande er ødelagt. Vi skaber ikke de færdigheder, der er brug for i fremtiden. Så vi må finde en måde at gøre uddannelse bedre på. Det er altså de ting, vi ikke gør rigtigt.
And finally, the issue of education. Our education systems in many countries are broken. We are not creating the types of skills needed for the future. So we have to find a way to educate better. So those are the things that we are not doing right.
Hvor fortsætter vi herfra? Jeg tror på, at vejen frem er at lære at lede succes. Når mennesker eller lande har succes, glemmer de ofte, hvad der gjorde dem succesfulde. At lære hvad du er succesfuld i, at styre det og beholde det er afgørende for os. Alle de ting, jeg sagde, vi gjorde rigtigt, skal vi lære at gøre rigtigt igen og blive ved med det. At styre økonomien og at skabe stabilitet er afgørende, at få de rigtige priser og sammenhængende politik. Ofte er der ikke sammenhæng. Ét regime kommer ud, et andet kommer ind, og de smider selv den fungerende orden ud, der var der før. Hvad gør dette? Det skaber usikkerhed for mennesker, husstande, usikkerhed for virksomheder. De ved ikke om, og hvordan de skal investere.
Now, where do we go from there? I believe that the way forward is to learn to manage success. Very often, when people succeed or countries succeed, they forget what made them succeed. Learning what you're successful at, managing it and keeping it is vital for us. So all those things I said we did right, we have to learn to do it right again, keep doing it right. Managing the economy while creating stability is vital, getting prices right, and policy consistency. Very often, we are not consistent. One regime goes out, another comes in and they throw away even the functioning policies that were there before. What does this do? It creates uncertainty for people, for households, uncertainties for business. They don't know whether and how to invest.
Gæld: vi skal styre den succes, vi havde i at reducere vores gæld, men nu er flere lande gået tilbage til at låne igen, og vi ser, at gælden i forhold til BNP er begyndt at stige, og i visse lande er gæld ved at blive et problem, så det bliver vi nødt til at undgå. At styre succes.
Debt: we must manage the success we had in reducing our debt, but now countries are back to borrowing again, and we see our debt-to-GDP ratio beginning to creep up, and in certain countries, debt is becoming a problem, so we have to avoid that. So managing success.
Den næste ting er at fokusere specifikt på de ting, vi ikke gjorde godt. Først og fremmest infrastruktur. De fleste lande anerkender nu, at de må investere i dette, og de prøver at gøre det bedste, de kan. Vi skal. Det vigtigste er elektricitet. Man kan ikke udvikle sig i mørke.
The next thing is focusing with a laser beam on those things we did not do well. First and foremost is infrastructure. Yes, most countries now recognize they have to invest in this, and they are trying to do the best they can to do that. We must. The most important thing is power. You cannot develop in the dark.
Og så regeringsførelse og korruption: vi må kæmpe. Vi bliver nødt til at gøre vores lande gennemsigtige. Og vi bliver især nødt til at engagere unge mennesker. Vi har genialitet i unge mennesker. Jeg ser det hver dag. Det er det, som får mig op om morgenen og klar. Vi bliver nødt til at slippe genialiteten løs i unge mennesker, ikke stå i vejen for dem, støtte dem til at skabe og innovere og føre vejen frem. Og jeg ved, at de vil lede os i den rigtige retning.
And then governance and corruption: we have to fight. We have to make our countries transparent. And above all, we have to engage our young people. We have genius in our young people. I see it every day. It's what makes me wake up in the morning and feel ready to go. We have to unleash the genius of our young people, get out of their way, support them to create and innovate and lead the way. And I know that they will lead us in the right direction.
Og vores kvinder og piger: vi bliver nødt til at anerkende, at piger og kvinder er en gave. De har styrke, og vi må slippe den styrke fri, så de kan bidrage til kontinentet.
And our women, and our girls: we have to recognize that girls and women are a gift. They have strength, and we have to unleash that strength so that they can contribute to the continent.
Jeg tror meget stærkt på, at når vi gør alle disse ting, kan vi se, at fortællingen om et voksende Afrika ikke blot er et lykketræf. Det er en udvikling. Det er en udvikling, og hvis vi fortsætter og slipper vores ungdom løs, hvis vi slipper kvinderne løs, går vi måske nogen gange et skridt tilbage vi træder måske endda et skridt til siden, men udviklingen er tydelig. Afrika vil fortsætte med at vokse.
I strongly believe that when we do all of these things, we find that the rising Africa narrative is not a fluke. It's a trend. It's a trend, and if we continue, if we unleash our youth, if we unleash our women, we may step backwards sometimes, we may even step sideways, but the trend is clear. Africa will continue to rise.
Og jeg siger til de forretningsfolk i mængden, at investering i Afrika ikke bare er for i dag eller i morgen, det er ikke en kortsigtet ting, det er en langsigtet ting. Men hvis du ikke investerer i Afrika, så går du glip af en af de vigtigste og mest fremspirende muligheder i verden.
And I tell you businesspeople in the audience, investment in Africa is not for today, is not for tomorrow, it's not a short-term thing, it's a longer term thing. But if you are not invested in Africa, then you will be missing one of the most important emerging opportunities in the world.
Tak.
Thank you.
(Bifald)
(Applause)
Kelly Stoetzel: Du nævnte korruption i din tale, og du er kendt som en stærk antikorruptions-kæmper. Men det har haft konsekvenser. Folk har kæmpet tilbage, og din mor blev kidnappet. Hvordan har du håndteret dette? Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: Det har været svært. Tak fordi du nævner kidnapningen af min mor. Det er et meget vanskeligt emne. Men det betyder, at når du bekæmper korruption, når du rører ved lommerne på dem, som stjæler penge, vil de ikke bare være stille. De kæmper imod, og problemet er, at når de prøver at skræmme dig, giver du så op, eller kæmper du videre? Finder du en måde at blive ved med at kæmpe på? Og svaret jeg kom frem til, sammen med det team, jeg arbejdede med, er, at vi må kæmpe videre. Vi må skabe de institutioner. Vi må finde måder at stoppe de mennesker i at stjæle fremtidens arv. Så det er, hvad vi gjorde. Og selv ude af regeringen, fortsatte vi med at kæmpe. I vores lande, vil ingen bekæmpe korruption for os udover os selv. Og det kommer med konsekvenser, og vi må bare gøre det bedste, vi kan. Men jeg vil takke jer og TED for at give os en stemme til at fortælle de mennesker, at de ikke vil vinde, og vi vil ikke blive skræmte.
Kelly Stoetzel: So you mentioned corruption in your talk, and you're known, well-known as a strong anticorruption fighter. But that's had consequences. People have fought back, and your mother was kidnapped. How have you been handling this? Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: It's been very difficult. Thank you for mentioning the issue of the kidnap of my mother. It's a very difficult subject. But what it means is that when you fight corruption, when you touch the pockets of people who are stealing money, they don't just keep quiet. They fight back, and the issue for you is when they try to intimidate you, do you give up, or do you fight on? Do you find a way to stay on and fight back? And the answer that I had with the teams I worked with is we have to fight on. We have to create those institutions. We have to find ways to stop these people from taking away the heritage of the future. And so that's what we did. And even out of government, we continued to make that point. In our countries, nobody, nobody is going to fight corruption for us but us. And therefore, that comes with consequences, and we just have to do the best we can. But I thank you and thank TED for giving us a voice to say to those people, you will not win, and we will not be intimidated.
Tak.
Thank you.
(Bifald)
(Applause)
Kelly Stoetzel: Mange tak for din fantastiske tale og vigtige arbejde.
Kelly Stoetzel: Thank you so much for your great talk and important work.
(Bifald)
(Applause)