People love their automobiles. They allow us to go where we want to when we want to. They're a form of entertainment, they're a form of art, a pride of ownership. Songs are written about cars. Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette." He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil." He wrote about a car. One of my favorites has always been: "Make Love to Your Man in a Chevy Van," because that was my vehicle when I was in college.
人人都爱车 有了车,我们就能随时随地前往我们想去的地方 车是一种娱乐形式 是一种艺术形式 是一种因为所有权而产生的骄傲。 有许多关于汽车的歌曲 王子(Prince )写了一首很棒的《小小红色雪佛兰》 他写的不是《小红笔记本电脑》,也不是《小红吸尘器》 而是关于一辆车的歌曲 我最喜欢的歌是 《在雪佛兰里做爱吧》 因为雪佛兰是我大学时期的座驾
The fact is, when we do our market research around the world, we see there's a nearly universal aspiration on the part of people to own an automobile -- 750 million people in the world today own a car. And you say, boy, that's a lot. But you know what? That's just 12 percent of the population. We really have to ask the question: Can the world sustain that number of automobiles? And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years, it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles. If you park those end to end and wrap them around the Earth, that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.
实际上,我们在做世界范围的市场调研时 发现人们都是 对车充满渴望的 现在全球有7亿5千万人拥有汽车 你可能觉得,哇,这么多 但你们知道么 这个数字仅仅占全球人口的12% 我们不得不产生这样的疑问: 地球经受得了这么多车么? 如果你注意到对未来10年、15年至20年的预测 你会发现世界上停车场的数量将会增长到能容纳下11亿车辆 如果将这些车首尾相连 绕地球停放 那么其长度将是地球周长的125倍
Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years. Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago. But the fact remains: the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same. If we were to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago, knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product and about the technologies that exist today, what would we do?
在过去的100年里,汽车技术飞速发展 汽车变得更加清洁、安全、高效 比起100年前,现在汽车已成为大众消费品,而不是让我们望而兴叹的东西 但实际上 汽车的基本构造功能没变 如果我们今天来重新发明汽车,而不是在100年前, 在已经知道汽车的各种缺陷之后, 结合现在的各种先进技术 我们会如何制造汽车?
We wanted something that was really affordable. The fuel cell looked great: one-tenth as many moving parts, a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine, and it emits just water. And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law with electronic controls and software, and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected. So we embarked upon the reinvention around an electrochemical engine, the fuel cell, and hydrogen as the energy carrier. First was Autonomy. Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head. We embodied all of the key components of a fuel-cell propulsion system. We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire, and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year. Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell, and we have followed up that now with Sequel. And Sequel truly is a real car. So if we could run the video --
我们需要的是人们能够买得起的汽车 燃料电池似乎不错 只有其他许多移动部件的十分之一大 并且燃料电池推进系统作为内燃机 仅仅释放出水而已 我们想通过摩尔定律来 解释电子控制系统和软件方面的更新 同时我们也希望车辆之间能互通联系 所以我们开始着手改造 电化学发动机里的燃料电池, 使氢作为能源载体 最初,通用汽车研发出的是一款名为Autonomy的概念车 它奠定了通用汽车之后的环保车发展方向 对于燃料电池推进系统的设计,我们整合了所有关键性的元素 之后,我们在Autonomy中融入氢燃料电池-线传操控技术 去年的这个研讨会上曾展出过Hy-Wire概念车 它是世界上第一款可驾驶的燃料电池汽车 在Autonomy和Hy-Wire之后,现在我们又带来最新一代的氢燃料电池车Sequel Sequel是辆真正意义上的汽车,而非概念车 让我们看看这个视频短片吧
(Futuristic music)
[Reinventing the Automobile]
(Video) It truly is my great pleasure to introduce Sequel.
[Acceleration]
[Cruising]
[Steering]
[Braking]
But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind: Where is the hydrogen going to come from? And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available? So let me talk about hydrogen first. The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources: it can come from fossil fuels, it can come from any way that you can create electricity, including renewables. And it can come from biofuels. And that's quite exciting. The vision here is to have each local community play to its natural strength in creating the hydrogen. A lot of hydrogen is produced today in the world. It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline -- which I find is somewhat ironic. It's produced in the fertilizer industry; it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry. That hydrogen is being made because there's a good business reason for its use. But it tells us that we know how to create it, we know how to create it cost-effectively, we know how to handle it safely.
但你们肯定都有这样一个关键的疑问 氢气从何而来 还有这种燃料电池汽车什么时候能真正面世 我先谈谈氢气吧 氢气的奇妙之处在于它来源丰富: 石油, 任何能产生电能的方式 包括可再生能源 生物燃料也能产生氢气 这很棒吧 我们的愿景是 每一个社区内 都能够稀松平常地 获得氢气 当今世界热衷于生产氢气 因为氢气能减少汽油的消耗 这让我觉得有点讽刺意味 化肥工业生产氢气 化学工业生产氢气 生产氢气是因为 它具有良好的经济效益 但关键是我们知道如何生产氢气 如何降低生产氢气的成本 以及如何进行安全生产
We did an analysis where you would have a station in each city with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States, and located the stations so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time. We put one every 25 miles on the freeway, and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations. And at a million dollars each, that would be about 12 billion dollars. That's a lot of money. But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today, that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost. But the real exciting vision that we see, truly, is home refueling, much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cell phone. So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen. We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.
我们做了个分析 在全美100个最大的城市里 设定一个车站 将车站设定在 无论何时你都距其不大于2英里的范围内 我们在高速公路上每隔25英里设一个车站 那么大约有1万2千个车站 如果一个车站需要花费100万美元 那么就需要花费120亿美元 这可是一大笔钱 但如果现在开建阿拉斯加输油管 120亿美元仅是铺设输油管的所花费的一半而已 我们认为最激动人心的前景是在家加油 就像在家里给笔记本或手机充电一样 我们都看好氢气在未来的应用前景 这不是是否应该应用氢气的问题,而是何时能够应用的问题
What we've targeted for ourselves -- and we're making great progress toward this goal -- is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells, designed and validated, that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine. We're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine, and doing it in terms of affordability at scale volumes, its performance and its durability. So that's what we're driving to for 2010. We haven't seen anything yet in our development work that says that isn't possible. We actually think the future is going to be event-driven. So since we can't predict the future, we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future.
对于我们目标的实现 正在进展中并且不断得到改进 这个目标就是制造一个以氢燃料电池为基础的 推进系统 经过设计及验证后 这个推进系统将能与内燃机媲美 我们打算淘汰内燃机 在提高可购性 增加技能卷,提高性能和耐用性方面努力 这就是2010年我们要做的工作 目前还没发现在研发过程中 有任何迹象表明我们的想法不可行 我们相信未来将为事件所驱动 虽然我们无法预测未来 但是我们会努力 创造未来
I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time: they're parked all around us. They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them. Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States, it turns out that the power in four percent of the automobiles equals that of the electric grid of the US. That's a huge power-generating capability, a mobile power-generating capability. And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked to generate electricity for the grid.
我们的汽车以及卡车有90%的时间是停着的, 我对如何挖掘这段时间内车子的潜能很感兴趣 这些车就停在我们周围 停在距离他们的所有者不到100英尺的范围内 比较汽车和美国电网 的发电能力 汽车电力的四分之一 相当于美国电网的供电能力 由此可看出汽车发电能力的强大 而且还是可移动的发电 氢燃料电池让我们能够充分利用资源, 即使汽车和卡车停着的时候也能发电, 为电网所用
We talked about swarm networks earlier. Talk about the ultimate swarm -- having all of the processors and all of the cars when they're sitting idle being part of a global grid for computing capability. We find that premise quite exciting. The automobile becomes, then, an appliance -- not in a commodity sense, but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform for information and computing and communication, as well as a form of transportation.
之前我们有谈到群网络 最强大的群,是将所有的处理器 所有未处于使用状态的汽车 集合起来,作为具有计算能力的全球电网的一部分 这个假想让我们振奋不已 汽车能够成为一种电器 但不是商品意义上的电器 而是作为一种能够提供信息、计算、通讯的 电器,移动电源,移动平台 当然也是一种交通工具
And the key to all of this is to make it affordable, to make it exciting, to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it. And again, this is a pretty big march to take here. A lot of people say: How do you sleep at night when you're wrestling with a problem of that magnitude? I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours.
但最重要的是我们要让汽车价廉物美 和令人兴奋, 并且有足够的资金进行研发 要实现我们的设想还有很长的路要走 许多人担心 如果考虑这样一个巨大的工程,晚上怎么睡得着 我告诉他们我的睡眠就像小婴儿一样 每两个小时就醒来哭一次
(Laughter)
我认为这次研讨会的主题,实际上就是策划出关键要素,并予以实现
Actually, the theme of this conference, I think, has hit on one of the major keys to pull that off, and that's relationships and working together. Thank you very much.
那就是关系网的建立与相互合作 谢谢 (掌声)
(Applause)
Chris Anderson:Larry,等等,先别走,先等会儿
Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry -- wait, wait, wait. Larry, wait one sec. I've got so many questions I could ask you. I just want to ask one. You know, I could be wrong about this, but my sense is that in the public mind today, GM is not viewed as as serious about some of these environmental ideas as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford. Are you serious about it, and not just, you know, when the consumers want it, when the regulators force us to do it, we will go there? Will you guys really try and show leadership on this?
我有很多问题想问你 现在就问一个 也许我的想法有误 不过在我看来,大众认为 与日本的竞争对手,甚至是福特汽车比起来, 通用汽车对那些环保汽车方面的想法和计划并不严肃认真。 你怎么看待这个问题呢 是不是因为消费者的需求 执政者的敦促才开始认真对待这些想法 你们通用汽车是不是真的打算在这方面大展拳脚,做领头人 Larry Burns: 那是当然,我们是认真的
Larry Burns: Absolutely. We're absolutely serious. We're into this over a billion dollars already, so I would hope people would think we're serious when we're spending that kind of money. And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition. I'll be honest with you; we're into it for business growth opportunities. We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems. The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues if we don't solve the problems. And there's a simple principle of strategy that says: Do unto yourself before others do unto you. If we can see this possible future, others can, too. And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.
我们已经在这方面投资了十多亿美元 所以当通用汽车花大力气投资时 .我希望人们看到我们对环保汽车的诚意,能改变对我们的看法 另外,关注环保也应该是企业最基本的任务 老实告诉你: 因为环保汽车的发展机会,我们开始予以关注 如果不解决这些问题,我们的业务就无法继续扩展 如果我们不解决这些问题 汽车行业的发展将会因为可持续发展的问题而受阻 有这么一个简单的战略原则: 在他人超越你之前先自己超越自己 如果我们能看到环保汽车的发展潜能,别人也能 但我们要做的是成为先驱者