People love their automobiles. They allow us to go where we want to when we want to. They're a form of entertainment, they're a form of art, a pride of ownership. Songs are written about cars. Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette." He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil." He wrote about a car. One of my favorites has always been: "Make Love to Your Man in a Chevy Van," because that was my vehicle when I was in college.
Ljudi vole svoje automobile. Oni nam omogućavaju da idemo gdje želimo kad to želimo. Oni su oblik zabave, oblik umjetnosti, ponos vlasništva. Postoje pjesme o automobilima. Prince je napisao sjajnu pjesmu: "Mala crvena Corvetta." Nije napisao "Mali crveni laptop" ili "Mali crveni vrag." Pisao je o autu. Meni je jedna od najdražih uvijek bila, "Vodi ljubav sa svojim čovjekom u Chevrolet kombiju," jer je to bilo moje vozilo u koledžu.
The fact is, when we do our market research around the world, we see there's a nearly universal aspiration on the part of people to own an automobile -- 750 million people in the world today own a car. And you say, boy, that's a lot. But you know what? That's just 12 percent of the population. We really have to ask the question: Can the world sustain that number of automobiles? And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years, it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles. If you park those end to end and wrap them around the Earth, that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.
Kada radimo istraživanje tržišta širom svijeta, vidimo kod ljudi gotovo univerzalnu težnju k posjedovanju automobila. 750 milijuna ljudi u svijetu danas imaju automobil. I reći ćete, hej, to je mnogo. No znate što? To je samo 12 posto stanovništva. Zaista moramo postaviti pitanje: Može li svijet podnijeti taj broj automobila? A kad pogledamo prognoze za sljedećih 10, 15 ili 20 godina, izgleda da bi svjetski vozni park mogao narasti na 1,1 milijardu vozila. Ako biste ih parkirali jedno do drugoga i omotali ih oko Zemlje, ta vozila bi se oko Zemlje omotala 125 puta.
Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years. Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago. But the fact remains: the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same. If we were to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago, knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product and about the technologies that exist today, what would we do?
Automobilska tehnologija je ostvarila veliki napredak tijekom proteklih 100 godina. Auti su dramatično čišći, sigurniji, efikasniji i radikalno dostupniji nego što su to bili prije 100 godina. Ali je činjenica: Fundamentalni DNK automobila ostao je uglavnom isti. Ako bismo danas izumili automobil, za razliku od onog otprije 100 godina, znajući ono što znamo o problemima povezanim s tim proizvodom i s obzirom na danas postojeće tehnologije, što bismo stvorili?
We wanted something that was really affordable. The fuel cell looked great: one-tenth as many moving parts, a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine, and it emits just water. And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law with electronic controls and software, and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected. So we embarked upon the reinvention around an electrochemical engine, the fuel cell, and hydrogen as the energy carrier. First was Autonomy. Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head. We embodied all of the key components of a fuel-cell propulsion system. We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire, and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year. Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell, and we have followed up that now with Sequel. And Sequel truly is a real car. So if we could run the video --
Željeli bismo nešto što si ljudi mogu priuštiti. Pogonska ćelija izgleda odlično: samo jedna desetina pokretnih dijelova i pogonski sustav ćelije kao motor s unutrašnjim izgaranjem -- a ispušta samo vodu. A željeli bismo iskoristiti Mooreov zakon s elektroničkim upravljanjem i softverom, i apsolutno želimo da nam auto bude povezan. Pa smo se upustili u ponovno otkrivanje elektrokemijskog motora pogonske ćelije, gdje je vodik nositelj energije. Prvo je bio Autonomy. Autonomy je definirao viziju kamo težimo. Uvrstili smo sve ključne komponente sustava pogonske ćelije. Zatim smo pokrenuli naš Autonomy pomoću Hy-Wire pogona, na lanjskoj konferenciji smo ovdje pokazali Hy-Wire. Hy-Wire je prva svjetska upravljiva pogonska ćelija, a zatim smo nastavili sa Sequelom. Sequel je istinski sjajan automobil. Ako možemo pokrenuti video --
(Futuristic music)
[Reinventing the Automobile]
(Video) It truly is my great pleasure to introduce Sequel.
[Acceleration]
[Cruising]
[Steering]
[Braking]
But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind: Where is the hydrogen going to come from? And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available? So let me talk about hydrogen first. The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources: it can come from fossil fuels, it can come from any way that you can create electricity, including renewables. And it can come from biofuels. And that's quite exciting. The vision here is to have each local community play to its natural strength in creating the hydrogen. A lot of hydrogen is produced today in the world. It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline -- which I find is somewhat ironic. It's produced in the fertilizer industry; it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry. That hydrogen is being made because there's a good business reason for its use. But it tells us that we know how to create it, we know how to create it cost-effectively, we know how to handle it safely.
Ali ključno pitanje koje vam je sigurno na pameti: odakle će doći taj vodik? I drugo, kad će ovakvi automobili postati dostupni? Pa dopustite da prvo govorim o vodiku. Ljepota s vodikom je ta što može doći iz mnogo različitih izvora: iz fosilnih goriva, možemo ga dobiti na sve načine na koje proizvodimo električnu energiju, uključujući i obnovljive izvore. A može doći i iz biogoriva. A to je uzbudljivo. Ideja je da svaka lokalna zajednica koristi svoje prirodne prednosti u proizvodnji vodika. Danas u svijetu proizvodimo mnogo vodika. Proizvodi se da izvučemo sumpor iz benzina -- što mi djeluje pomalo ironično. Proizvodimo ga u industriji umjetnih gnojiva; proizvodimo ga u kemijskoj prerađivačkoj industriji. Vodik se proizvodi jer postoje dobri poslovni razlozi za njegovu upotrebu. Ali to nam govori da ga znamo proizvesti, znamo ga proizvesti troškovno učinkovito, znamo njime sigurno baratati.
We did an analysis where you would have a station in each city with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States, and located the stations so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time. We put one every 25 miles on the freeway, and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations. And at a million dollars each, that would be about 12 billion dollars. That's a lot of money. But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today, that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost. But the real exciting vision that we see, truly, is home refueling, much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cell phone. So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen. We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.
Napravili smo analizu po kojoj biste imali postaju u svakom gradu u svakom od 100 najvećih gradova u Sjedinjenim Državama, i smjestili smo postaje tako da ne biste bili udaljeniji od tri kilometra od postaje ni u jednom trenu. Stavili smo postaju na svakih 40 kilometara auto ceste, i pokazalo se da je riječ o 12.000 postaja. Po cijeni od milijun dolara po postaji, dolazimo do iznosa od 12 milijardi dolara. To je mnogo novca. Ali kad biste danas gradili naftovod Aljaske, ovo je tek polovica onoga što bi koštala izgradnja naftovoda. No naša stvarno uzbudljiva vizija je kućno punjenje, otprilike kao punjene vašeg laptopa ili mobitela. Tako da smo prilično uzbuđeni budućnošću vodika. Mislimo da nije pitanje hoćemo li, već kada ćemo.
What we've targeted for ourselves -- and we're making great progress toward this goal -- is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells, designed and validated, that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine. We're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine, and doing it in terms of affordability at scale volumes, its performance and its durability. So that's what we're driving to for 2010. We haven't seen anything yet in our development work that says that isn't possible. We actually think the future is going to be event-driven. So since we can't predict the future, we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future.
Ono što smo sebi zadali kao cilj -- i postižemo zaista veliki napredak -- je dobiti pogonski sustav koji se temelji na vodiku i pogonskim ćelijama, oblikovati ga i potvrditi, kako bi se mogao nadmetati s motorom na unutarnje sagorijevanje -- govorimo o tome da motor s unutarnjim sagorijevanjem učinimo zastarjelim -- i to na temelju kriterija cijene, volumena, izvedbe i trajnosti. Tome težimo u 2010. godini. Nismo naišli ni na što u razvijanju ovoga što bi nam reklo da je to nemoguće. Zapravo mislimo da će budućnost pokretati događaji. A kako ne možemo predvidjeti budućnost, želimo trošiti mnogo našeg vremena u pokušaju da stvorimo tu budućnost.
I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time: they're parked all around us. They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them. Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States, it turns out that the power in four percent of the automobiles equals that of the electric grid of the US. That's a huge power-generating capability, a mobile power-generating capability. And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked to generate electricity for the grid.
Jako me intrigira činjenica da naši auti i kamioni sjede besposleno 90 posto vremena: parkirani su, parkirani svuda oko nas. Obično su parkirani na udaljenosti do 30 metara od svojih vlasnika. Ako razmotrite sposobnost automobila da stvori energiju i usporedite je s električnom mrežom Sjedinjenih Država, pokazuje se da je energija u 4 posto automobila, jednaka energiji električne mreže Sjedinjenih Država. To je ogromna sposobnost proizvodnje energije, mobilna sposobnost proizvodnje energije. A vodik i pogonske ćelije na pružaju priliku da koristimo naše aute i kamione dok su parkirani da proizvode struju za mrežu.
We talked about swarm networks earlier. Talk about the ultimate swarm -- having all of the processors and all of the cars when they're sitting idle being part of a global grid for computing capability. We find that premise quite exciting. The automobile becomes, then, an appliance -- not in a commodity sense, but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform for information and computing and communication, as well as a form of transportation.
Ranije smo govorili o mrežama-rojevima. O najvećem roju, u kojem su svi procesori i svi automobili kad su parkirani dio globalne mreže koja daje računalni kapacitet. Mislimo da je ta premisa vrlo uzbudljiva. Automobil tada postaje uređaj, ne u smislu potrošne robe, već kao uređaj, mobilni izvor energije, mobilna platforma za informacije, obradu podataka i komunikaciju, kao i vid transporta.
And the key to all of this is to make it affordable, to make it exciting, to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it. And again, this is a pretty big march to take here. A lot of people say: How do you sleep at night when you're wrestling with a problem of that magnitude? I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours.
A ključ za sve ovo je da učinimo jeftinim, uzbudljivim, da ga stavimo na putanju na kojoj postoji način da se zaradi u tom poslu. Ovo je vrlo veliki marš kojega moramo poduzeti. Mnogi kažu, kako spavate noću boreći se s problemom tog reda veličine? Kažem im da spavam kao beba: Budim se plačući svaka dva sata.
(Laughter)
Tema ove konferencije je, mislim, dotaknula jedan od ključnih elemenata potrebnih da uspijemo u ovome --
Actually, the theme of this conference, I think, has hit on one of the major keys to pull that off, and that's relationships and working together. Thank you very much.
a to su odnosi i zajednički rad. Hvala vam lijepa. (Pljesak).
(Applause)
Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry, čekaj, čekaj, čekaj, čekaj, Larry, čekaj, čekaj sekundu.
Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry -- wait, wait, wait. Larry, wait one sec. I've got so many questions I could ask you. I just want to ask one. You know, I could be wrong about this, but my sense is that in the public mind today, GM is not viewed as as serious about some of these environmental ideas as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford. Are you serious about it, and not just, you know, when the consumers want it, when the regulators force us to do it, we will go there? Will you guys really try and show leadership on this?
Imam puno pitanja koje bih ti mogao postaviti. Ali postavit ću samo jedno. Znaš, možda nisam u pravu, ali imam osjećaj da javnost danas, ne misli da je GM tako ozbiljan kad je u pitanju zaštita okoliša kao što su neki vaši japanski konkurenti, možda čak i Ford. Jeste li ozbiljni u ovome, a ne samo, znaš, kad to kupci žele, kad nas zakoni tjeraju da pođemo u tom smjeru? Hoćete li vi zaista pokušati pokazati vodstvo u ovome? Larry Burns: Da, apsolutno smo ozbiljni.
Larry Burns: Absolutely. We're absolutely serious. We're into this over a billion dollars already, so I would hope people would think we're serious when we're spending that kind of money. And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition. I'll be honest with you; we're into it for business growth opportunities. We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems. The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues if we don't solve the problems. And there's a simple principle of strategy that says: Do unto yourself before others do unto you. If we can see this possible future, others can, too. And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.
Uložili smo u ovo već više od milijardu dolara, i nadam se da ljudi misle da smo ozbiljni kad trošimo toliko novca. A drugo, to je fundamentalno dobar posao. Bit ću iskren s tobom: u tome smo zbog mogućnosti poslovnog rasta. Ne možemo povećati naš posao ako ne riješimo te probleme. Rast auto industrije će ograničiti problemi održivosti ako ne riješimo te probleme. A jednostavno strateško načelo kaže: Uradi to sam, prije nego što ti drugi urade. Ako mi vidimo ovu moguću budućnost, vide je i drugi. A mi želimo biti prvi koji će je stvoriti, Chris.