Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities. The urbanization process started in the late 1700s and has been increasing since then. The prediction is that by 2050, 66 percent of the population will live in cities and the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the World Economic Forum, are warning us, if we don't plan for the increased density, current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime can only get worse. As a result, urban planners and city developers are putting a lot of effort and creativity in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.
如今,世界上超過一半的 人口住在城市裡。 城市化的發展 始於 1700 年代末期, 並持續增加至今。 根據預測,到 2050 年時, 將會有 66% 的人口住在城市裡, 聯合國屬下的世界衛生組織, 和世界經濟論壇,警告我們, 如果我們不計劃因應 增加的人口密度, 像不平等、人口擁擠、犯罪等 城市目前面臨的問題, 只會變得更糟糕。 所以,規劃和發展城市的人 砸下大把功夫和創新 來設計我們未來人口更密集、 規模更大的城市。
But I have a different opinion. I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle, and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside. And you may think, "But what about the trend?" Well, let me tell you, socioeconomic trends don't last forever. You know, 12,000 years ago everybody was perfectly happy roaming the land, hunting and gathering. And then, the trend changes, and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle, until it changes again. When we get to the industrial revolution. Actually, that is what started the urbanization process. And you know what triggered it? Steam power, machines, new chemical processes -- in two words, technological innovation. And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.
可是我有不同的觀點。 我認為城市化實際上 已經達到它循環週期的盡頭了, 如今人們開始住回鄉村。 你或許納悶:「關於那趨勢呢?」 好,讓我來告訴你, 社會經濟趨勢並不永續。 要知道,在一萬兩千年前, 每個人都開心地 在土地上漫遊、打獵和聚居。 然後趨勢變了, 農牧業開始發展, 直到趨勢再度改變, 我們到來工業革命。 實際上,那是城市化發展的起始。 你知道是什麼觸發的嗎? 是蒸汽動力、機械、 新的化學加工, 總結成兩個字,就是科技創新。 我也相信科技也會終止這個循環。
I've been working on innovation for most of my career. I love it. I love my job. It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses, and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes. It's a lot of fun sometimes. Now, some of these technologies are opening new possibilities that will radically change the way we did things before and in a few years, they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life from anywhere. Think about it. If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate and more space and a lower cost of living and less traffic, of course many people would want that, but they feel they don't have a choice. You have to live in the city.
我的大半職涯一直在創新。 我愛創新,我愛我的職業, 我的工作用到無人機、 3D 列印機,和智能眼鏡, 不只是商場裡買得到的成品, 還包括樣板原型。 有時候非常的有趣。 其中的一些科技 正在開創新的遠景, 我們做事的方式將會在 短短幾年內從本質上產生巨變, 使我們得以享受城市生活的好處, 不論身在何處。 思考一下! 如果你能住在犯罪率低、 空間大、 消費低、 交通不擁擠的地方; 那當然是許多人的盼望, 但他們未必有這樣的選項, 只好住在城市裡。
Well, in the past, people moved to the cities not because they loved the city itself but for the things you could have in a city, more job opportunities, easier access to services and goods and a rich social life. So let's dive deeper.
好,過去人們移居城市 不是因為他們喜歡城市本身, 而是為了在城市裡能得到的東西: 更多就業機會、 更容易獲得服務設施、 以及更豐富的社交生活。 讓我們進一步探討。
More jobs and career opportunities. Is that still true today, because the office people are starting to realize that working in the office and being in the office may not be the same thing anymore. According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics, more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home. And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office? 11,000 dollars per employee per year. If only half of those workers would telework even 50 percent of the time, the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars, and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons. That is the equivalent of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year. But even though most people would want to telework, current technology makes the experience isolating. It's not comfortable. It doesn't feel like being there. But that is going to change by the convergence of two technologies: augmented reality and telepresence robots.
城市裡有更多的就業和陞遷機會 今天仍然是事實, 因為那些白領階級開始意識到 在公司裡工作和「待」在公司裡 不盡然是同一回事了。 根據全球就業分析的研究, 超過 80% 的美國勞動者 願意在家工作。 你可知道公司設立一間辦公室 得要花多少錢嗎? 每個員工一年要花 11,000 美元。 如果半數的員工 有一半的時間遠距工作, 可為美國省下超過五百億美元, 還可減少 5400 萬噸的 溫室氣體排放, 這就相當於 街道上一年少了 一千萬汽車的排放量。 但即使大多數人想遠距辦公, 當前的科技讓人感到與世隔離, 讓人感到不舒服, 和在辦公室裡的感覺不一樣。 但這會因融入兩種 新興的科技而改變: 擴增實境科技,和遠端臨場機器人。
Augmented reality already today allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you. All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses, and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets with you wherever you go. And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days, but they still need improvement. I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen, sometimes you don't even know who is talking.
如今的擴增實境科技 能讓你把辦公室的氛圍 帶到每個地點, 只需要一台電腦和一副智能眼鏡, 你就可以帶著郵件和電子圖表 到處走了。 如今視訊會議和通話變得十分普遍, 但仍有改進的空間。 我的意思是,那些顯示在 平面螢幕上的小小臉孔, 有時候你根本不知道到底誰在講話。
Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls: your average telepresence robot. I call it tablet on a stick.
現在我們已有比 靜態視訊通話更好的東西: 遠端臨場機器人。 我稱它為桿子上的平板電腦。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
You can control, you can move around, you can control what you're looking at. It's way better, but far from perfect. You know how they say that most human communication is nonverbal? Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that. It looks like an alien. But with advances in augmented reality, it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram that actually looks and moves like a person. That will do it. Or else, forget the robot. We go full VR, and everybody meets in cyberspace. Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real, you won't tell the difference.
你可以控制它、隨意移動它, 可以控制你的視線範圍。 這是改進了的產品, 但是離完美還遠得很。 你們知道常言道 多數人以無聲交流吧? 但機器人可不會無聲交流, 它看上去就像是個外星人。 但是透過擴增實境, 可以很輕易地把機器人 用個好的全息投影包裝起來, 使它看起來像人,動起來像人, 那就夠了。 或者這樣,別管機器人, 我們用全副的虛擬實境, 每個人都在網路世界裡相遇。 再過幾年的時間, 就會逼真到讓你辨不出 它和現實世界有任何差別。
So what was the next reason why people move to cities? Access to services and goods. But today you can do all that online. According to a study made by comScore, online shoppers in the US last year did more than half of their retail purchases online, and the global market for e-commerce is estimated to be at two trillion dollars. And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017, according to eMarketer.
大家遷徙到城市居住的 另一個原因是什麼呢? 為要能夠得到更多的服務和物品, 但是現在你都可以在網上解決。 根據網站數據測量公司 comScore 的一份研究, 去年美國的網購者 在網上採購過半的零售品, 全球市場的網上貿易額 估計將達到兩兆美元。 預期在 2017 年底 可望達到 2.38 兆美元, 資料來自市場研究機構 eMarketer。
Now, from a logistics standpoint, density is good for deliveries. Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy. You can send big shipments to the shop, and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves. E-commerce means we need to ship onesies and have them home delivered. That's more expensive. It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people or bringing a piece of the cake to each of your 20 friends at their place. But at least in the city, they live close to each other. Density helps. Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside, those take forever. The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one. Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.
從物流的立場來看, 密度有利於送貨。 把貨物供應給商場很簡單, 把一大批的貨物寄到商店, 然後顧客上門提貨自己帶回家。 網路貿易代表單件商品 必須被直接寄到顧客的家中, 運費貴得多了。 就好比是邀請二十個人 來參加生日派對, 或是將每塊生日蛋糕 分別送到二十個人的家中。 但至少在城市裡, 人們住得相對近, 人口密度是有利的。 而網購郵寄包裹到鄉下 需要很長的時間才能到貨。 有時候卡車得要 開長距離到下一個地址, 那是所有遞送中最貴的了。
But we already have a solution for that: drones. A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones. The driver does some of the deliveries while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves. That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced, and voila: affordable e-commerce services in the countryside. You will see: the new homes of our teleworkers will probably have a drone pod in the yard. So once the final mile delivery is not a problem, you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore. So that's two.
但是我們已經有解決方案了: 無人機。 一輛車載著一隊的無人機。 司機只需要遞送一部分, 而在卡車遞送的過程中, 由無人機來回送貨。 這樣一來,減少了平均的遞送花費, 瞧: 鄉村也可以有實惠的網路貿易服務。 你會看到: 在遠距辦公者住家的院子裡 可能就會裝置著無人機的卡座。 一旦最後一里路的遞送不再是問題, 你就不需要在城市裡買東西了。 那是第二個理由。
Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities? A rich social life. They would need to be in the city for that these days. Because people these days, they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt from the comfort of their sofa.
人們移居到城市的 第三個原因是什麼? 是豐富的社交生活。 如今,豐富的社交生活 得要待在城市裡。 現在的人交友、 交流、八卦和調情, 都能窩在自家的沙發裡做,
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
身上穿著自己喜歡的睡衣。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
There are over two billion active social media users in the world. In a way, that makes you think like we are connected no matter where we are. But OK, not completely. Sometimes you still need some real human contact. Ironically, the city, with its population density, is not always the best for that. Actually, as social groups become smaller, they grow stronger. A recent study made in the UK by the Office for National Statistics showed a higher life satisfaction rating among people living in rural areas. So as people settle in the countryside, well, they will buy local groceries, fresh groceries, foodstuff, maintenance services. So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive. Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities displaced by the automation will find a nice alternative job here, and they will move too. And as people move to the countryside, how is that going to be? Think about autonomous, off-the-grid houses with solar panels, with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities, our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car. I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient, but let me tell you, repopulating the countryside can be eco too.
現在全世界有二十億 活躍的社交媒體用戶。 從某種方面來看,我們互相聯繫著, 不管我們身在那裡。 但好吧,不盡然如此。 有時候還是需要一些 真正人與人之間的交流的。 諷刺的是,雖然城市有高人口密度, 但卻不總是適合交友的地方。 事實上,社交圈越小就越牢固。 英國國家數據庫的近期研究 顯示居住在農村的人 有更高的生活幸福指數。 人們定居於鄉村, 他們買當地的雜貨、 新鮮的雜貨、食物,和維修服務。 使水電工、小商鋪和服務公司興旺。 可能有些城市工人 被自動化取代而失了業, 會在鄉村找到更好的 替代工作而遷居。 當人們移居鄉間會怎樣呢? 試想獨立自主的生活: 房子裝有自給自足的太陽能板, 有風力發電機、 垃圾廢水回收再利用的設備, 新家使用自產的電源, 用來給自家的汽車充電。 我的意思是,城市一向 被視為更有效地使用能源, 但是讓我告訴你, 居民返居鄉間,也可以變得環保。
By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.
現在你可能想著鄉居的好處。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
I did it myself. Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff, we sold our little apartment in Spain, and for the same money we bought a house with a garden and little birds that come singing in the morning.
我自己就移居到鄉間。 六年前,妻子和我打包了家當, 賣了我們在西班牙的小公寓, 用那些錢買了一個有花園的房子, 每天早上都能聽見鳥在唱歌。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
It's so nice there. And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet. That is going to be my next move: a refurbished farmhouse, not too far from a city, not too close. And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.
那個環境太好了! 我們住的小村莊還不算太鄉下。 但那是我下一步的計畫: 整修一個農場, 離城市不遠也不近, 確保有個無人機降落的地點。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
But hey, that's me. It doesn't have to be you, because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody to come join us in the country. I'm not.
不過,嘿,那是我的盤算, 未必是你的。 因為看起來好像我在嘗試說服你們 跟我一起移居到鄉間生活。 我可沒有。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
I don't need more people to come.
我不要更多人住進來。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
I just think they will once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has. But if you don't like the country, I have good news for you, too. Cities will not disappear. But as people move out, a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.
我只是認為人們會移居鄉間, 一旦他們意識到鄉間 和城市有同樣的好處。 但是如果你不喜歡鄉村, 我也有好消息要告訴你。 城市不會消失。 但是當人們遷出, 降低的人口密度 有助於城市的管理和平衡。
Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do. Do you still think you need to live in the city? And more importantly, do you want to?
不管怎麼樣,我猜你們會思考的。 你們仍覺得需要住在城市裡嗎? 更重要的是, 你們「想要」住在城市裡嗎?
Thank you very much.
謝謝大家!
(Applause)
(掌聲)