Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities. The urbanization process started in the late 1700s and has been increasing since then. The prediction is that by 2050, 66 percent of the population will live in cities and the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the World Economic Forum, are warning us, if we don't plan for the increased density, current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime can only get worse. As a result, urban planners and city developers are putting a lot of effort and creativity in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.
如今 城市人口已占 世界总人口的一半以上 早在18世纪 城市化进程就已开始 并在不断加速 据推测 截至2050年 将有66%的世界人口在城市安家 一些国际组织 包括联合国 世界卫生组织 以及世界经济论坛 都发出了警告 如若无视城市人口密度的增大 不加以合理的规划 当今城市中的种种问题 如不平等 过度拥堵 犯罪等 只会变得更糟 因此 城市规划开发者们 正绞尽脑汁地设计出 一个未来人口密度更大 城市规模更大的建筑蓝图
But I have a different opinion. I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle, and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside. And you may think, "But what about the trend?" Well, let me tell you, socioeconomic trends don't last forever. You know, 12,000 years ago everybody was perfectly happy roaming the land, hunting and gathering. And then, the trend changes, and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle, until it changes again. When we get to the industrial revolution. Actually, that is what started the urbanization process. And you know what triggered it? Steam power, machines, new chemical processes -- in two words, technological innovation. And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.
但我有个不同的见解 我认为现在 城市化 已经到了一个周期的末尾 接下来人们将开始重返乡村 你可能会问 那城市化趋势 会怎么发展下去 我是这么认为的 社会经济趋势是 不会永久发展下去的 12000年前 所有人都觉得 游牧 打猎以及群居 这样的生活方式挺好的 之后社会经济趋势发生了转变 人们开始住在农场里养牛 直到风向再一次转变 人类进入了工业革命时代 事实上这也是城市化进程的开端 是什么刺激了城市化呢 蒸汽动力 机器 新的化学处理过程 用四个字来概括 即技术革新 我认为技术同样能 带我们进入下一阶段
I've been working on innovation for most of my career. I love it. I love my job. It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses, and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes. It's a lot of fun sometimes. Now, some of these technologies are opening new possibilities that will radically change the way we did things before and in a few years, they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life from anywhere. Think about it. If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate and more space and a lower cost of living and less traffic, of course many people would want that, but they feel they don't have a choice. You have to live in the city.
我的职业生涯中 大部分时间都和创新打交道 我喜欢这行 很爱我的工作 借助工作我可以接触到 无人机 3D打印机 还有智能眼镜 除了这些在商店销售的 还有原型机 有时候真的非常有趣 其中一些高科技产品 带来了更多新的可能 来改变我们以往做事的方式 在未来几年中 这些科技或许能让我们在任何地方 都享受到城市生活的便利 想想看 如果有一个犯罪率更低 空间更大 生活成本更低 交通也不拥堵的地方 当然会让很多人趋之若鹜 但很多人认为他们没有这样的选择 因此不得不住在城市里
Well, in the past, people moved to the cities not because they loved the city itself but for the things you could have in a city, more job opportunities, easier access to services and goods and a rich social life. So let's dive deeper.
在过去 人们移居城市 不是因为热爱这个城市本身 而是因为城市所能提供的东西 更多的工作机会 更丰富的商品以及服务 更多彩的社交生活 那让我们进一步来看看
More jobs and career opportunities. Is that still true today, because the office people are starting to realize that working in the office and being in the office may not be the same thing anymore. According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics, more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home. And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office? 11,000 dollars per employee per year. If only half of those workers would telework even 50 percent of the time, the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars, and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons. That is the equivalent of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year. But even though most people would want to telework, current technology makes the experience isolating. It's not comfortable. It doesn't feel like being there. But that is going to change by the convergence of two technologies: augmented reality and telepresence robots.
更多的工作和就业机会 在当今还重要吗 因为办公室一族开始意识到 在办公室工作和呆在办公室 已经不再是同一个概念了 全球工作数据分析的一项研究发现 在美国有80%的在业者想在家工作 你知道一个公司租用办公地有多贵吗? 平均每年每个员工11000美元 如果那些员工中的一半 能在一半的时间在家工作 美国的这些公司就能 省下超过5千亿美元 也能少制造5400万吨的温室气体 这相当于减少了 一千万台车一整年的排气量 但是即使大多数人想远程工作 目前的科技只会让这种方式 显得很有隔绝感 让人感觉不太舒服 不觉得是公司的一员 但是这些都即将改变 因为我们可以实现两种科技的融合 增强现实和远程呈现机器人
Augmented reality already today allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you. All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses, and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets with you wherever you go. And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days, but they still need improvement. I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen, sometimes you don't even know who is talking.
增强现实感技术在当今 可以允许我们将办公室环境带在身边 只需一台便携电脑和一副智能眼睛 你就可以带着你的电邮和表格 随便去哪都没问题 视频会议和视频电话已经很常见 但还有改进的空间 看着平面显示器上的 一张张缩小的头像 有时候都分不清是谁在讲话
Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls: your average telepresence robot. I call it tablet on a stick.
而现在 我们已经有比静态 视频电话更好的沟通方式了 就是远程呈现机器人 我喜欢称它为一根棍上的平板
(Laughter)
(笑声)
You can control, you can move around, you can control what you're looking at. It's way better, but far from perfect. You know how they say that most human communication is nonverbal? Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that. It looks like an alien. But with advances in augmented reality, it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram that actually looks and moves like a person. That will do it. Or else, forget the robot. We go full VR, and everybody meets in cyberspace. Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real, you won't tell the difference.
你可以进行操控 动来动去 可以对要看的东西进行控制 这种科技理想多了 但远不够完美 人们不是都说 大多数的人际交流是非语言交流吗 和这机器人交流正是如此 它不正像个外星人嘛 但是因为有了先进的增强现实科技 我们可以轻易给机器人 穿上全息摄投影人像 这样才能看着像人 动起来也像人 不错吧 或者 压根儿不需要机器人 我们可以用虚拟现实 大家都能直接在网络空间见面 这个技术只需要再发展几年 就能非常成熟 根本看不出来是虚拟的
So what was the next reason why people move to cities? Access to services and goods. But today you can do all that online. According to a study made by comScore, online shoppers in the US last year did more than half of their retail purchases online, and the global market for e-commerce is estimated to be at two trillion dollars. And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017, according to eMarketer.
那么人们搬到城市 还有其他什么原因吗 是为了更多的服务和商品 但是当今这些都可以在网上实现 根据comScore的数据统计 在去年 美国人民超过一半的物品 都是在网上购买的 据统计 全球电商市场 价值2万亿美元 而根据eMarketer提供的数据 预计在2017年底 这个数字 会多达2.38万亿
Now, from a logistics standpoint, density is good for deliveries. Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy. You can send big shipments to the shop, and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves. E-commerce means we need to ship onesies and have them home delivered. That's more expensive. It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people or bringing a piece of the cake to each of your 20 friends at their place. But at least in the city, they live close to each other. Density helps. Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside, those take forever. The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one. Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.
从物流角度来说 搞人口密度对运送货物有好处 给一个购物中心送货很简单 你可以向商店送一大批货物 然后人们就会去商店 买上需要的东西带回家 而网上购物意味着 我们需要把货物一件一件 送到各家各户 这样费用更贵 就像是开一个20个人的聚会 还是将一块块的蛋糕 给20个朋友分别送到家 起码在城市里 各家各户离得不远 住的紧凑是好事 但电商也需要送货到郊区 花的时间就要多得多了 送货卡车可能要在一个地址 和另一个地址间开上个几公里 这种送货是最贵的
But we already have a solution for that: drones. A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones. The driver does some of the deliveries while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves. That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced, and voila: affordable e-commerce services in the countryside. You will see: the new homes of our teleworkers will probably have a drone pod in the yard. So once the final mile delivery is not a problem, you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore. So that's two.
但是我们已经有解决方法了 使用无人机 可以用一台车载上一队的无人机 在无人机飞来飞去的时候 司机可以运送其它货物 这样运送的成本就会降低 看吧 乡郊区也能有价格合理的电商服务 你会看到 很多远程工作的员工在新家的 院子里都会装有无人机架 一旦我们让最后的运送变成可能 你就不用去市里买东西了 这是第二点
Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities? A rich social life. They would need to be in the city for that these days. Because people these days, they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt from the comfort of their sofa.
人们搬家到城市的 第三个原因是什么来着 丰富的社交生活 这年头谁还需要去 市里获取社交生活啊 因为这年头 人们不管是交朋友 聊天 八卦还是调情 都在自家沙发上完成
(Laughter)
(笑声)
And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
穿着最爱的睡衣
(Laughter)
(笑声)
There are over two billion active social media users in the world. In a way, that makes you think like we are connected no matter where we are. But OK, not completely. Sometimes you still need some real human contact. Ironically, the city, with its population density, is not always the best for that. Actually, as social groups become smaller, they grow stronger. A recent study made in the UK by the Office for National Statistics showed a higher life satisfaction rating among people living in rural areas. So as people settle in the countryside, well, they will buy local groceries, fresh groceries, foodstuff, maintenance services. So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive. Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities displaced by the automation will find a nice alternative job here, and they will move too. And as people move to the countryside, how is that going to be? Think about autonomous, off-the-grid houses with solar panels, with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities, our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car. I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient, but let me tell you, repopulating the countryside can be eco too.
世界上大概有超过2百万的 活跃的社交网络用户 某种程度来讲 这让你觉得 我们都是联系在一起的 不管身处何处 好吧 也不完全是这样 有时候你还是需要真正的人际交流 讽刺的是 城市人口虽然多 却并不是一个人际交往的最佳地点 实际上 社交群体越小 联系却越紧密 英国国家统计局发起的 最近的一项研究表明 生活在乡村地区的人口 有更高的生活满意度 人们在乡村安家后 会去本地杂货店购物 买新鲜的食品 也会雇佣本地劳动力 这样一来 本地的技工 小的作坊 和服务公司都会发展良好 也许一些城市工业界的工人 被自动化生产线所取代之后 还能在乡村找到不错的工作 然后就会决定搬家 随着更多人搬到乡村居住 会发生什么样的变化呢 想象这里生活的自主性 不需要城市供电 只依赖太阳能 风能 有更好的 废物循环系统的房子 我们的新家能自给自足 还能给私家车提供电能 一直以来人们都觉得 在城市生活可以更节能 但是我可以告诉大家 重返乡村也能过上节能生活
By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.
现在你们肯定已经在想象 乡村生活的美好了
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I did it myself. Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff, we sold our little apartment in Spain, and for the same money we bought a house with a garden and little birds that come singing in the morning.
我自己就搬了家 6年前 我和妻子打包了行李 卖掉了我们在西班牙的家 用那笔钱买了一个带花园的房子 还附带清晨来唱歌的小鸟
(Laughter)
(笑声)
It's so nice there. And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet. That is going to be my next move: a refurbished farmhouse, not too far from a city, not too close. And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.
真的太惬意了 我们住在一个小镇子里 也不完全算是乡村 我的下一步是 一个翻新的农家小院 离城市不是很远 也不要太近 这次我们肯定会 选好无人机的降落点
(Laughter)
(笑声)
But hey, that's me. It doesn't have to be you, because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody to come join us in the country. I'm not.
但这只是我的做法 你不一定要这样 看起来好像是我在说服你们 跟我们一起搬到乡村 我可没有这个意思
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I don't need more people to come.
我可不想吸引那么多人过来
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I just think they will once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has. But if you don't like the country, I have good news for you, too. Cities will not disappear. But as people move out, a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.
我只是觉得人们会搬的 只是需要意识到乡村也可以提供 城市能提供的好处 但是如果你不喜欢乡村 我也有新想法可以分享给你 城市并不会消失 但是很多人会搬走 人口密度的减少会使剩余人口的生活 流动性更好 更加平衡
Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do. Do you still think you need to live in the city? And more importantly, do you want to?
总之 你们现在肯定开始有疑问了 你必须要住在城市吗 更重要的是 你真的想吗
Thank you very much.
谢谢大家
(Applause)
掌声