Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities. The urbanization process started in the late 1700s and has been increasing since then. The prediction is that by 2050, 66 percent of the population will live in cities and the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the World Economic Forum, are warning us, if we don't plan for the increased density, current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime can only get worse. As a result, urban planners and city developers are putting a lot of effort and creativity in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.
Danas više od polovine svjetske populacije živi u gradovima. Proces urbanizacije počeo je krajem 18. stoljeća i otada je u porastu. Predviđa se da će do 2050. godine 66% stanovništva živjeti u gradovima. UN, Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija i Svjetski ekonomski forum upozoravaju nas, nećemo li imati plan za povećanu gustoću naseljenosti, trenutačni problemi u našim gradovima, poput nejednakosti, zakrčenosti, zločina, postat će samo gori. Stoga urbanistički planeri i graditelji ulažu mnogo truda i kreativnosti u dizajniranje naših budućih, gušćih, većih gradova.
But I have a different opinion. I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle, and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside. And you may think, "But what about the trend?" Well, let me tell you, socioeconomic trends don't last forever. You know, 12,000 years ago everybody was perfectly happy roaming the land, hunting and gathering. And then, the trend changes, and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle, until it changes again. When we get to the industrial revolution. Actually, that is what started the urbanization process. And you know what triggered it? Steam power, machines, new chemical processes -- in two words, technological innovation. And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.
Međutim, ja imam drukčije mišljenje. Smatram da je urbanizacija zapravo dosegla kraj svog ciklusa i ljudi će se sada početi vraćati selu. Mogli biste pomisliti: "Ali što je s trendom?" Dakle, dozvolite mi da vam kažem socioekonomski trendovi ne traju dovijeka. Znate, prije 12.000 godina, svi su bili savršeno sretni tumaranjem po zemlji, lovom i sakupljanjem. Zatim, trend se promijenio i onda je hit postao živjeti na farmi i držati stoku. Dok se i to nije promijenilo iznova, kada dolazimo do industrijske revolucije. Zapravo, to je ono što je započelo proces urbanizacije. Znate li što ga je pokrenulo? Parna snaga, strojevi i novi kemijski procesi. Dvjema riječima: tehnološka inovacija. Vjerujem da tehnologija može isto tako ovaj ciklus dovesti do svog kraja.
I've been working on innovation for most of my career. I love it. I love my job. It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses, and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes. It's a lot of fun sometimes. Now, some of these technologies are opening new possibilities that will radically change the way we did things before and in a few years, they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life from anywhere. Think about it. If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate and more space and a lower cost of living and less traffic, of course many people would want that, but they feel they don't have a choice. You have to live in the city.
Radim na inovaciji većinu svoje karijere. Obožavam to i obožavam svoj posao. Dozvoljava mi da radim s dronovima, 3D pisačima i pametnim naočalama. I to ne samo onim koje možete kupiti u trgovinama već i s prototipovima. Zaista je jako zabavno ponekad. Neke od ovih tehnologija stvaraju nove mogućnosti koje će radikalno promijeniti načine na koji smo obavljali stvari i za nekoliko godina, mogle bi nam omogućiti da uživamo u pogodnostima gradskog života bilo gdje. Razmislite o tome. Ako biste mogli živjeti u mjestu koje ima malu stopu zločina, a više prostora, nižim troškovima života i manje prometa, naravno da bi većina htjela upravo to. Međutim, oni smatraju da nemaju izbora i da moraju živjeti u gradu.
Well, in the past, people moved to the cities not because they loved the city itself but for the things you could have in a city, more job opportunities, easier access to services and goods and a rich social life. So let's dive deeper.
U prošlosti su ljudi selili u gradove, ne zato što su voljeli taj grad, već radi stvari koje je grad omogućavao. Veće mogućnosti zaposlenja, lakši pristup uslugama i proizvodima te bogatiji društveni život. Promotrimo to izbliza.
More jobs and career opportunities. Is that still true today, because the office people are starting to realize that working in the office and being in the office may not be the same thing anymore. According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics, more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home. And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office? 11,000 dollars per employee per year. If only half of those workers would telework even 50 percent of the time, the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars, and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons. That is the equivalent of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year. But even though most people would want to telework, current technology makes the experience isolating. It's not comfortable. It doesn't feel like being there. But that is going to change by the convergence of two technologies: augmented reality and telepresence robots.
Više mogućnosti za zaposlenje i stvaranje karijere. Je li to još uvijek stoji i danas? Naime, ljudi po uredima počinju shvaćati da raditi i biti u uredu ne mora više biti ista stvar. Prema studiji Global Workplace Analyticsa, više od 80% radne snage SAD-a voljelo bi raditi od kuće. A znate li koliko uopće košta tvrtke da imaju uredski prostor? 11.000 dolara po zaposleniku po godini. Kada bi samo pola tih zaposlenika radilo od kuće tek pola radnog vremena, ušteda bi u državama premašila 500 milijardi dolara, što bi moglo smanjiti stakleničke plinove za 54 milijuna tona. To je ekvivalent 10 milijuna auta manje na cestama za cijelu godinu. Unatoč činjenici da bi ljudi više voljeli raditi od kuće, trenutna tehnologija čini to iskustvo osamljujućim. Nije udobno i ne daje osjećaj pripadanja. Međutim, to će se promijeniti približavanjem dviju tehnologija: Proširenom stvarnošću i teleprisutnim robotima.
Augmented reality already today allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you. All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses, and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets with you wherever you go. And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days, but they still need improvement. I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen, sometimes you don't even know who is talking.
Proširena stvarnost već danas omogućuje uredsko okruženje gdje god se nalazili. Sve što vam treba su prijenosno računalo i pametne naočale pa možete imati svoju e-poštu i radne dokumente gdje god išli. A video sastanci i pozivi postali su vrlo učestali u današnje doba, no, još uvijek su im potrebna poboljšanja. Hoću reći, sva ona mala lica na ekranu, ponekad ne znate ni tko vam govori.
Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls: your average telepresence robot. I call it tablet on a stick.
Naravno, već postoji nešto puno bolje od statičnih video poziva: vaš prosječni teleprisutni robot. Zovem ga tabletom na štapu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
You can control, you can move around, you can control what you're looking at. It's way better, but far from perfect. You know how they say that most human communication is nonverbal? Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that. It looks like an alien. But with advances in augmented reality, it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram that actually looks and moves like a person. That will do it. Or else, forget the robot. We go full VR, and everybody meets in cyberspace. Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real, you won't tell the difference.
Imate kontrolu nad njim, nad tim kuda ide i što vidi. Napredak je, ali daleko od savršenstva. Znate li kako govore da je ljudska komunikacija uglavnom neverbalna? Pa, nećete je dobiti od robota. Izgleda poput vanzemaljca. Ali uz napretke u proširenoj stvarnosti, bit će jednostavno omotati robota u lijepi hologram, tako da uistinu nalikuje pravoj osobi. To bi bilo dovoljno. Ili... zaboravite na robota. Prijeđimo potpuno na virtualnu stvarnost, svi se susreću u virtualnom svijetu. Za par godina ćete nju doživljavati toliko stvarno, da nećete ni znati razliku.
So what was the next reason why people move to cities? Access to services and goods. But today you can do all that online. According to a study made by comScore, online shoppers in the US last year did more than half of their retail purchases online, and the global market for e-commerce is estimated to be at two trillion dollars. And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017, according to eMarketer.
Dakle, što je bio sljedeći razlog zašto će ljudi seliti u gradove? Pristupačnost usluga i robe. Ali, danas im možete pristupiti i elektronski. Po studiji koju je proveo comScore, e-kupci u SAD-u su za prošlu godinu više od pola svoje kupnje obavili elektronski. A svjetsko tržište za e-trgovinu procjenjuje se na dva bilijuna dolara. e-Marketer procjenjuje da će doseći 2,38 bilijuna dolara do kraja 2017.
Now, from a logistics standpoint, density is good for deliveries. Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy. You can send big shipments to the shop, and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves. E-commerce means we need to ship onesies and have them home delivered. That's more expensive. It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people or bringing a piece of the cake to each of your 20 friends at their place. But at least in the city, they live close to each other. Density helps. Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside, those take forever. The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one. Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.
Sa stajališta logistike, gustoća je dobra za dostave. Dostava robe trgovačkim centrima je laka. Možete slati velike pošiljke trgovinama, a ljudi će doći, kupiti i ponijeti kući. E-trgovina znači da šaljete i dostavljate po jedan primjerak robe, a to je mnogo skuplje. To je kao da organizirate rođendansku zabavu za 20 ljudi ili da donosite po komad torte svakom od 20 prijatelja u njihov dom. Ali, u gradu barem žive međusobno blizu. Gustoća pomaže. Što se tiče dostave narudžbe s e-trgovine na selo, njima treba vječnost da stignu. Dostavljači ponekad voze kilometrima da bi došli od jedne adrese do druge. Takve dostave su najskuplje od svih.
But we already have a solution for that: drones. A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones. The driver does some of the deliveries while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves. That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced, and voila: affordable e-commerce services in the countryside. You will see: the new homes of our teleworkers will probably have a drone pod in the yard. So once the final mile delivery is not a problem, you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore. So that's two.
Međutim, već postoji rješenje za to: dronovi. Vozilo koje prenosi eskadru dronova. Vozač obavlja neke dostave, a dronovi lete od i prema kamionu koji je u pokretu. Na taj način su srezani prosječni troškovi dostave i voila: pristupačne usluge e-trgovine na selu. Vidjet ćete, budući domovi onih koji rade od kuće vjerojatno će u dvorištu imati pristanište za dronove. Budući da daleke dostave neće više biti problematične, neće biti potrebno živjeti u gradu da biste mogli kupovati stvari. Dakle, to su dva.
Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities? A rich social life. They would need to be in the city for that these days. Because people these days, they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt from the comfort of their sofa.
A što je bio treći razlog selidbe u grad? Bogat društveni život. Biste li morali biti u gradu za to? Jer ljudi danas stječu prijatelje, čavrljaju, ogovaraju i flertuju iz udobnosti svojih fotelja.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
I sve to dok nose svoju omiljenu pidžamu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
There are over two billion active social media users in the world. In a way, that makes you think like we are connected no matter where we are. But OK, not completely. Sometimes you still need some real human contact. Ironically, the city, with its population density, is not always the best for that. Actually, as social groups become smaller, they grow stronger. A recent study made in the UK by the Office for National Statistics showed a higher life satisfaction rating among people living in rural areas. So as people settle in the countryside, well, they will buy local groceries, fresh groceries, foodstuff, maintenance services. So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive. Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities displaced by the automation will find a nice alternative job here, and they will move too. And as people move to the countryside, how is that going to be? Think about autonomous, off-the-grid houses with solar panels, with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities, our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car. I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient, but let me tell you, repopulating the countryside can be eco too.
U svijetu ima više od dvije milijarde aktivnih korisnika društvenih mreža. Na neki način, to nas navodi na shvaćanje da smo povezani gdje god bili. Dobro, ne baš sasvim. Ponekad vam je još uvijek potreban pravi ljudski kontakt. Ironično je da grad, svojom gustoćom stanovnika, nije uvijek idealan za to. Zapravo, što društvene grupe postaju manje, to budu snažnije. Nedavna studija u UK-u Državnog zavoda za statistiku pokazala je višu stopu zadovoljstva životom među ljudima na selu. Dakle, kako se ljudi budu nastanjivali u selima, to će kupovati lokalne namirnice, svježe namirnice, općenito hranu i tražiti usluge održavanja lokalno. Tako će majstori, mali obrti i usluge razvijati poslovanje. Možda će neki industrijski radnici iz grada, zamijenjeni automatizacijom, naći neki dobar drukčiji posao na selu pa će i oni preseliti tamo. A kako će to izgledati kad ljudi počnu seliti na selo? Razmišljajte o samoodrživim, neovisnim kućama sa solarnim panelima te vjetrenjačama i službama za recikliranje otpada. Naši budući domovi proizvodit će vlastitu struju i njome pokretati obiteljski auto. Hoću reći, gradovi su se uvijek smatrali energetski učinkovitijim, ali, vjerujte mi, ponovno naseljavanje sela također može biti ekološko.
By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.
Do sada ste vjerojatno razmotrili sve pogodnosti života na selu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
I did it myself. Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff, we sold our little apartment in Spain, and for the same money we bought a house with a garden and little birds that come singing in the morning.
I ja sam. Prije šest godina žena i ja smo spakirali stvari, prodali naš stančić u Španjolskoj i tim novcem kupili kuću s vrtom i ptičicama koje dolaze ujutro pjevati.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
It's so nice there. And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet. That is going to be my next move: a refurbished farmhouse, not too far from a city, not too close. And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.
Tako je lijepo. Živimo u seocetu, ne baš u osamljenoj prirodi. To mi je sljedeće u planu, preuređena seoska kuća. Niti predaleko, niti preblizu gradu. Morat ćemo paziti da imamo dobro mjesto za dronove da mogu sletjeti.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
But hey, that's me. It doesn't have to be you, because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody to come join us in the country. I'm not.
Ali, to je moj izbor. Ne mora biti i vaš, jer bi moglo zvučati kao da uvjeravam nekoga da nam se pridruži. Stvarno ne želim.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
I don't need more people to come.
Ne treba mi još ljudi.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
I just think they will once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has. But if you don't like the country, I have good news for you, too. Cities will not disappear. But as people move out, a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.
Jednostavno mislim da će sami doći kad shvate da mogu imati iste pogodnosti kao i u gradu. Ako niste seoski tip, imam dobre vijesti i za vas. Gradovi neće nestati. Kad iseljavanje počne, smanjena gustoća pomoći će pronalasku boljeg protoka i balansa.
Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do. Do you still think you need to live in the city? And more importantly, do you want to?
Dobro, pretpostavljam da sada imate o čemu razmišljati. Mislite li i dalje da morate živjeti u gradu? I, još važnije, želite li?
Thank you very much.
Hvala na pozornosti.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)