So, there's an actor called Dustin Hoffman. And years ago, he made this movie which some of you may have heard of, called "The Graduate." And there's two key scenes in that movie. The first one is the seduction scene. I'm not going to talk about that tonight.
Ima jedan glumac koji se zove Dastin Hofman. Pre mnogo godina, snimio je film za koji su neki od vas možda čuli, a zove se Diplomac. Dve su ključne scene u tom filmu. Prva je scena zavođenja. Neću govoriti o tome večeras.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
The second scene is where he's taken out by the old guy to the pool, and as a young college graduate, the old guy basically says one word, just one word. And of course, all of you know what that word is. It's "plastics."
U drugoj sceni, stariji tip ga izvodi do bazena i kao mladi diplomac fakulteta, stariji tip izgovara jednu reč, samo jednu reč. I naravno, svi vi znate koja je to reč. To je "plastika"
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And the only problem with that is, it was completely the wrong advice.
Jedini problem ovde je to što je to bio potpuno pogrešan savet.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Let me tell you why it was so wrong. The word should have been "silicon." And the reason it should have been silicon is because the basic patents for semiconductors had already been made, had already been filed, and they were already building them. So Silicon Valley was just being built in 1967, when this movie was released. And the year after the movie was released, Intel was founded. So had the graduate heard the right one word, maybe he would have ended up onstage -- oh, I don't know -- maybe with these two.
Reći ću vam zašto je bio pogrešan. Reč je trebala biti "silicijum". A trebala je biti silicijum jer su osnovni patenti za poluprovodnike tada već bili izrađeni, već su bili podneti, i tada su ih već počeli praviti. Izgradnja Silicijumske doline je bila u toku 1967. godine kad je ovaj film izašao. Godinu dana nakon što je film izašao, osnovan je Intel. Da je diplomac čuo pravu reč, možda bi bio na sceni sa - pa, ne znam - možda sa ovom dvojicom.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So as you're thinking of that, let's see what bit of advice we might want to give so that your next graduate doesn't become a Tupperware salesman.
Dok razmišljate o tome, hajde da vidimo kakav bismo savet dali, a da naš sledeći diplomac ne postane putujući trgovac.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So in 2015, what word of advice would you give people, when you took a college graduate out by the pool and you said one word, just one word? I think the answer would be "lifecode." So what is "lifecode?" Lifecode is the various ways we have of programming life. So instead of programming computers, we're using things to program viruses or retroviruses or proteins or DNA or RNA or plants or animals, or a whole series of creatures. And as you're thinking about this incredible ability to make life do what you want it to do, what it's programmed to do, what you end up doing is taking what we've been doing for thousands of years, which is breeding, changing, mixing, matching all kinds of life-forms, and we accelerate it.
Dakle u 2015. kakav biste vi savet dali kada biste odveli nekog diplomca do bazena i rekli jednu stvar, samo jednu stvar? MIslim da bi odgovor bio "životni kod". Šta je "životni kod"? To su razni načini na koje možemo da programiramo život. Dakle, umesto programiranja kompjutera koristimo stvari za programiranje virusa ili retrovirusa ili proteina ili DNK ili RNK ili biljaka ili životinja ili čitavog niza raznih bića. I dok razmišljate o ovoj neverovatnoj moći da naterate život da radi ono što vi hoćete, ono što je isprogramiran da uradi, ovim mi, u stvari, uzimamo ono što radimo hiljadama godina, a to je uzgoj, promena, mešanje, sparivanje različitih oblika života, i ubrzavamo sve to.
And this is not something new. This humble mustard weed has been modified so that if you change it in one way, you get broccoli. And if you change it in a second way, you get kale. And if you change it in a third way, you get cauliflower. So when you go to these all-natural, organic markets, you're really going to a place where people have been changing the lifecode of plants for a long time. The difference today, to pick a completely politically neutral term --
I to nije ništa novo. Ova obična gorušica je tako modifikovana da ako je promenite na jedan način, dobijete brokoli. A ako je promenite na drugi način, dobijate kelj. A ako je promenite na treći način, dobijate karfiol. Kad odete na te prirodne, organske pijace, vi, u stvari, odlazite na mesto gde ljudi već dugo vremena menjaju životni kod biljaka. Razlika danas, uzmimo u potpunosti politički neutralan termin -
[Intelligent design]
[Inteligentni dizajn]
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
We're beginning to practice intelligent design. That means that instead of doing this at random and seeing what happens over generations, we're inserting specific genes, we're inserting specific proteins, and we're changing lifecode for very deliberate purposes. And that allows us to accelerate how this stuff happens.
Počinjemo da primenjujemo inteligentni dizajn. To znači da umesto da ovo radimo nasumično, i pratimo šta se događa kroz više generacija mi umećemo određene gene, mi umećemo određene proteine, i menjamo životni kod sa jasno određenim ciljem. I to nam omogućava da ubrzamo odvijanje ovih procesa.
Let me just give you one example. Some of you occasionally might think about sex. And we kind of take it for granted how we've changed sex. So we think it's perfectly normal and natural to change it. What's happened with sex over time is -- normally, sex equals baby, eventually. But in today's world, sex plus pill equals no baby.
Daću vam jedan primer. Neki od vas možda povremeno pomisle na seks. U neku ruku, uzimamo zdravo za gotovo to kako smo promenili seks. Dakle, mislimo da je potpuno normalno i prirodno menjati ga. Ono što se vremenom dogodilo sa seksom jeste - normalno, seks jednako beba, na kraju. Ali ne u današnjem svetu. seks plus pilule jenako je nema bebe.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And again, we think that's perfectly normal and natural, but that has not been the case for most of human history. And it's not the case for animals. What it is does is it gives us control, so sex becomes separate from conception. And as you're thinking of the consequences of that, then we've been playing with stuff that's a little bit more advanced, like art. Not in the sense of painting and sculpture, but in the sense of assisted reproductive technologies. So what are assisted reproductive technologies? Assisted reproductive technologies are things like in vitro fertilization. And when you do in vitro fertilization, there's very good reasons to do it. Sometimes you just can't conceive otherwise. But when you do that, what you’re doing is separating sex, conception, baby. So you haven't just taken control of when you have a baby, you've separated when the baby and where the baby is fertilized. So you've separated the baby from the body from the act. And as you're thinking of other things we've been doing, think about twins. So you can freeze sperm, you can freeze eggs, you can freeze fertilized eggs. And what does that mean? Well, that's a good thing if you're a cancer patient. You're about to go under chemotherapy or under radiation, so you save these things. You don't irradiate them. But if you can save them and you can freeze them, and you can have a surrogate mother, it means that you've decoupled sex from time. It means you can have twins born -- oh, in 50 years?
I opet, mislimo da je to potpuno normalno i prirodno, ali nije bilo tako većim delom istorije čovečanstva. I nije tako kod životinja. Ovo nam daje kontrolu, pa seks postaje odvojen od začeća. I dok razmišljate o posledicama toga, igrali smo se i ovim stvarima koje su nešto naprednije, poput umetnosti. Ne u smislu slikarstva i vajarstva, već u smislu novih reproduktivnih tehnologija. Pa, šta su nove reproduktivne tehnologije? Nove reproduktivne tehnologije su stvari poput veštačke oplodnje. A kad se radi veštačka oplodnja, postoje dobri razlozi za to. Ponekad je jednostavno nemoguće začeti na drugi način. Ali kada se to radi, razdvajaju se seks, začeće, beba. Ne samo da ste preuzeli kontrolu nad tim kad ćete imati bebu, već ste razdvojili i kada i gde će beba biti oplođena. Dakle, razdvojili ste bebu od tela, od čina. I dok razmišljate o drugim stvarima koje radimo, razmislite o blizancima. Možete zamrnuti spermu, i jajne ćelije, zamrznutu oplođenu jajnu ćeliju. A šta to znači? To je dobro ako imate rak. Ako treba da idete na hemoterapiju ili zračenje, i tako čuvate ove stvari. Ne ozračite ih. Ali ako ih možete sačuvati, i možete zamrznuti, i možete imati surogat majku, to znači da ste razdvojili seks i vreme. To znači da možete imati blizance kroz pedeset godina?
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
In a hundred years? Two hundred years? And these are three really profound changes that are not, like, future stuff. This is stuff we take for granted today.
Kroz sto godina? Dvesto godina? Ovo su tri zaista temeljne promene koje nisu stvar budućnsti. Sve ovo danas uzimamo zdravo za gotovo.
So this lifecode stuff turns out to be a superpower. It turns out to be this incredibly powerful way of changing viruses, of changing plants, of changing animals, perhaps even of evolving ourselves. It's something that Steve Gullans and I have been thinking about for a while.
Dakle, ispada da je promena životnog koda supermoć. To postaje izuzetno moćan način da menjamo viruse, menjamo biljke, menjamo životinje, možda čak i da evoluiramo same sebe. To je nešto o čemu Stiv Galans i ja razmišljamo već neko vreme.
Let's have some risks. Like every powerful technology, like electricity, like an automobile, like computers, this stuff potentially can be misused. And that scares a lot of people. And as you apply these technologies, you can even turn human beings into chimeras. Remember the Greek myth where you mix animals? Well, some of these treatments actually end up changing your blood type. Or they'll put male cells in a female body or vice versa, which sounds absolutely horrible until you realize, the reason you're doing that is you're substituting bone marrow during cancer treatments. So by taking somebody else's bone marrow, you may be changing some fundamental aspects of yourself, but you're also saving your life. And as you're thinking about this stuff, here's something that happened 20 years ago.
Hajde da rizikujemo. Kao i svaka moćna tehnologija, kao struja, kao auto, kao kompjuteri, ove stvari se potencijalno mogu zloupotrebiti. A to plaši mnoge ljude. Primenom ovih tehnologija, možete pretvoriti ljude u čudovišta. Sećate se grčkog mita u kom su izmešane životinje? U nekim od ovih tretmana vam zapravo promene krvnu grupu. Ili stavljaju muške ćelije u žensko telo i obrnuto, što zvuči potpuno zastrašujuće dok ne shvatite, razlog zbog kog se to radi jeste zamena koštane srži prilikom lečenja raka. Dakle, uzimanjem tuđe koštane srži, možda menjate neke izvorne aspekte sebe, ali takođe spasavate i svoj život. I dok razmišljate o ovome, evo nešto što se desilo pre dvadeset godina.
This is Emma Ott. She's a recent college admittee. She's studying accounting. She played two varsity sports. She graduated as a valedictorian. And that's not particularly extraordinary, except that she's the first human being born to three parents. Why? Because she had a deadly mitochondrial disease that she might have inherited. So when you swap out a third person's DNA and you put it in there, you save the lives of people. But you also are doing germline engineering, which means her kids, if she has kids, will be saved and won't go through this. And [their] kids will be saved, and their grandchildren will be saved, and this passes on.
Ovo je Ema Ot. Nedavno je upisala fakultet. Studira računovodstvo. Bavila se s dva univerzitetska sporta. Bila je student generacije. I to nije naročito neobično, osim što je ona prvo ljudsko biće sa tri roditelja. Zašto? Imala je smrtonosnu mitohondrijalnu bolest koju je možda nasledila. Pa, kad uzmete DNK treće osobe i stavite je tamo, vi spasavate ljudske živote. Ali takođe sprovodite genetički inženjering, što znači da će njena deca, ako ih bude imala, biti spasena i neće prolaziti kroz to. I njihova deca će biti spasena, i njihovi unuci će biti spaseni, i to se prenosi dalje.
That makes people nervous. So 20 years ago, the various authorities said, why don't we study this for a while? There are risks to doing stuff, and there are risks to not doing stuff, because there were a couple dozen people saved by this technology, and then we've been thinking about it for the next 20 years. So as we think about it, as we take the time to say, "Hey, maybe we should have longer studies, maybe we should do this, maybe we should do that," there are consequences to acting, and there are consequences to not acting. Like curing deadly diseases -- which, by the way, is completely unnatural. It is normal and natural for humans to be felled by massive epidemics of polio, of smallpox, of tuberculosis. When we put vaccines into people, we are putting unnatural things into their body because we think the benefit outweighs the risk. Because we've built unnatural plants, unnatural animals, we can feed about seven billion people. We can do things like create new life-forms. And as you create new life-forms, again, that sounds terribly scary and terribly bothersome, until you realize that those life-forms live on your dining room table. Those flowers you've got on your dining room table -- there's not a lot that's natural about them, because people have been breeding the flowers to make this color, to be this size, to last for a week. You don't usually give your loved one wildflowers because they don't last a whole lot of time.
Ovo čini ljude nervoznim. Pre dvadeset godina, razne institucije su rekle, zašto ovo ne bismo izučavali neko vreme? Postoje rizici kad se rade određene stvari i postoje rizici kad se one ne rade, jer ima nekoliko desetina ljudi koji su spaseni ovom tehnologijom, i onda smo razmišljali o tome narednih dvadeset godina. Dok razmišljamo o tome, dok zastajemo da kažemo: "Hej, možda bi trebalo duže da izučavamo, možda treba da uradimo ovo, a možda da uradimo ono", Delovanje ima svoje posledice, a i nedelovanje ima posledice. Kao lečenje smrtonosnih bolesti, što je potpuno neprirodno. Normalno je i prirodno da ljudi budu gnevni zbog masovnih epidemija dečje paralize, malih boginja, tuberkuloze. Kada ubrizgavamo vakcine u ljude, mi stavljamo neprirodne stvari u njihova tela jer mislimo da prednosti pretežu nad rizicima. Zato što smo napravili neprirodne biljke, neprirodne životinje možemo da nahranimo sedam milijardi ljudi. Možemo da radimo stvari poput stvaranja novih oblika života. I stvaranje novih oblika života, opet, zvuči užasno zastrašujuće i strašno uznemirujuće, dok ne shvatite da ti životni oblici žive na vašem trpezarijskom stolu. Ono cveće što imate na trpezarijskom stolu - nema mnogo toga prirodnog u njima, jer ljudi uzgajaju cveće kako bi napravili ovu boju, ovu veličinu, da traje nedelju dana. Svojim bližnjim obično ne poklanjate poljsko cveće jer ne traje baš dugo.
What all this does is it flips Darwin completely on his head. See, for four billion years, what lived and died on this planet depended on two principles: on natural selection and random mutation. And so what lived and died, what was structured, has now been flipped on its head. And what we've done is created this completely parallel evolutionary system where we are practicing unnatural selection and non-random mutation.
Svim ovim se Darvin okreće naglavačke. Tokom četiri milijarde godina sve što je živelo i umiralo zavisilo je od dva principa: na prirodnoj selekciji i nasumičnoj mutaciji Sve što je živelo i umiralo, što je bilo ustrojeno, sada je okrenuto naglavačke. I tako smo stvorili paralelni evolutivni sistem gde primenjujemo neprirodnu selekciju i nenasumičnu mutaciju.
So let me explain these things. This is natural selection. This is unnatural selection.
Da objasnim ove stvari. Ovo je prirodna selekcija. Ovo je neprirodna selekcija.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So what happens with this stuff is, we started breeding wolves thousands of years ago in central Asia to turn them into dogs. And then we started turning them into big dogs and into little dogs. But if you take one of the chihuahuas you see in the Hermès bags on Fifth Avenue and you let it loose on the African plain, you can watch natural selection happen.
Ono što se događa sa ovim stvarima jeste, počeli smo da gajimo vukove pre više hiljada godina, u centralnoj Aziji, da bismo stvorili pse. A onda smo počeli da ih pretvaramo u velike pse, pa u male pse. Ako uzmete jednu od čivava koje viđate na kesama Hermesa na Petoj aveniji, i pustite je u afričku ravnicu, videćete prirodnu selekciju na delu.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Few things on Earth are less natural than a cornfield. You will never, under any scenario, walk through a virgin forest and see the same plant growing in orderly rows at the same time, nothing else living there. When you do a cornfield, you're selecting what lives and what dies. And you're doing that through unnatural selection. It's the same with a wheat field, it's the same with a rice field. It's the same with a city, it's the same with a suburb. In fact, half the surface of Earth has been unnaturally engineered so that what lives and what dies there is what we want, which is the reason why you don't have grizzly bears walking through downtown Manhattan.
Malo je stvari koje su neprirodnije od polja kukuruza. Nikad, ni po jednom scenariju, nećete proći kroz prašumu i videti istu biljku kako raste u pravilnim redovima, u isto vreme, gde ništa drugo ne živi. Radom na polju kukuruza birate šta će živeti, a šta umreti. I to radite kroz neprirodnu selekciju. Isto je sa poljem pšenice, isto je s pirinčanim poljem. Isto je s gradovima. Isto je s predgrađima. U stvari, polovina zemljine površine je uređena na neprirodan način tako da ono što tu živi i što umire je ono što mi želimo, i zato nemamo grizlije koji se šetaju centrom Menhetna.
How about this random mutation stuff? Well, this is random mutation. This is Antonio Alfonseca. He's otherwise known as the Octopus, his nickname. He was the Relief Pitcher of the Year in 2000. And he had a random mutation that gave him six fingers on each hand, which turns out to be really useful if you're a pitcher.
Šta kažete na ovu nasumičnu mutaciju? Ovo je nasumična mutacija. Ovo je Antonio Alfonseka. Inaće je poznat kao Hobotnica, njegov nadimak. On je bio Bacač godine, 2000. Imao je nasumičnu mutaciju koja mu je dala šest prstiju na obe ruke, što je veoma korisno ako ste bacač.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
How about non-random mutation? A non-random mutation is beer. It's wine. It's yogurt. How many times have you walked through the forest and found all-natural cheese? Or all-natural yogurt? So we've been engineering this stuff. Now, the interesting thing is, we get to know the stuff better. We found one of the single most powerful gene-editing instruments, CRISPR, inside yogurt. And as we start engineering cells, we're producing eight out of the top 10 pharmaceutical products, including the stuff that you use to treat arthritis, which is the number one best-selling drug, Humira.
A nenasumična mutacija? Nenasumična mutacija je pivo. Vino. Jogurt. Koliko ste puta hodali kroz šumu i našli potpuno prirodan sir? Ili potpuno prirodan jogurt? Dakle, ovakve stvari pravimo. Zanimljivo je da sve više saznajemo o svemu ovom. Pronašli smo jedan od najmoćnijih instrumenata za izmenu gena, CRISPR, u jogurtu. I kako menjamo ćelije, proizvodimo osam od deset glavnih farmaceutskih proizvoda, uključujući i ono što koristite za artritis, najprodavaniji lek, Humira.
So this lifecode stuff. It really is a superpower. It really is a way of programming stuff, and there's nothing that's going to change us more than this lifecode. So as you're thinking of lifecode, let's think of five principles as to how we start guiding, and I'd love you to give me more.
Dakle, ovaj životni kod je stvarno supermoćan. To je način programiranja stvari i ne postoji ništa što će nas promeniti više od ovog životnog koda. I dok razmišljate o životnom kodu, hajde da razmislimo o pet principa, kojima treba da se rukovodimo i voleo bih da mi date još.
So, principle number one: we have to take responsibility for this stuff. The reason we have to take responsibility is because we're in charge. These aren't random mutations. This is what we are doing, what we are choosing. It's not, "Stuff happened." It didn't happen at random. It didn't come down by a verdict of somebody else. We engineer this stuff, and it's the Pottery Barn rule: you break it, you own it.
Princip broj jedan: moramo preuzeti odgovornost za sve ovo. Razlog zbog kog moramo preuzeti odgovornost je to što je to naša briga. Ovo nisu nasumične mutacije. To je ono što radimo, što biramo. To nije: "Eto, desilo se". Nije se nasumično desilo. Nije nam se desilo tuđom odlukom. Mi modifikujemo ove stvari. to je pravilo koje glasi: ako pokvariš nešto, ti si odgovoran.
Principle number two: we have to recognize and celebrate diversity in this stuff. There have been at least 33 versions of hominids that have walked around this Earth. Most all of them went extinct except us. But the normal and natural state of this Earth is we have various versions of humans walking around at the same time, which is why most of us have some Neanderthal in us. Some of us have some Denisova in us. And some in Washington have a lot more of it.
Princip broj dva: moramo prepoznati i veličati raznolikost u ovim stvarima. Postojale su najmanje 33 verzije hominida koje su hodale po zemlji. Većina njih je izumrla, osim nas. Normalno i prirodno stanje na planeti podrazumeva različite verzije ljudi koje žive u isto vreme, zato mnogi od nas imaju ponešto od Neandertalca u sebi Neki od nas imaju ponešto od Denisova u sebi. A neki u Vašingtonu ga imaju mnogo više.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Principle number three: we have to respect other people's choices. Some people will choose to never alter. Some people will choose to alter all. Some people will choose to alter plants but not animals. Some people will choose to alter themselves. Some people will choose to evolve themselves. Diversity is not a bad thing, because even though we think of humans as very diverse, we came so close to extinction that all of us descend from a single African mother and the consequence of that is there's more genetic diversity in 55 African chimpanzees than there are in seven billion humans.
Princip broj tri: moramo poštovati izbore drugih ljudi. Neki ljudi će odlučiti da se nikad ne izmene. Neki će odlučiti da izmene sve. Neki će odlučiti da izmene biljke, ali ne životinje. Neki će odlučiti da izmene sebe. Neki će odlučiti da evoluiraju sebe. Različitost nije loša stvar. jer, iako ljude smatramo veoma različitim, toliko smo se približili izumiranju da svi mi potičemo od iste afričke majke, a posledica toga je da kod 55 afričkih šimpanzi ima više genetske različitosti, nego kod sedam milijardi ljudi.
Principle number four: we should take about a quarter of the Earth and only let Darwin run the show there. It doesn't have to be contiguous, doesn't have to all be tied together. It should be part in the oceans, part on land. But we should not run every evolutionary decision on this planet. We want to have our evolutionary system running. We want to have Darwin's evolutionary system running. And it's just really important to have these two things running in parallel and not overwhelm evolution.
Princip broj četiri: treba da uzmemo otprilike četvrtinu zemlje i dozvolimo Darvinu da vlada tamo. Teritorija se ne mora graničiti, ne mora sva biti povezana. Treba da se nalazi i u okeanima, i na kopnu. Ne treba mi da donosimo svaku evolutivnu odluku na ovoj planeti. Želimo da se naš evolutivni sistem razvija. Želimo da se Darvinov evolutivni sistem razvija. I stvarno je izuzetno važno da se ova dva sistema razvijaju pararelno a ne da nadvladaju evoluciju.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
Last thing I'll say. This is the single most exciting adventure human beings have been on. This is the single greatest superpower humans have ever had. It would be a crime for you not to participate in this stuff because you're scared of it, because you're hiding from it. You can participate in the ethics. You can participate in the politics. You can participate in the business. You can participate in just thinking about where medicine is going, where industry is going, where we're going to take the world. It would be a crime for all of us not to be aware when somebody shows up at a swimming pool and says one word, just one word, if you don't listen if that word is "lifecode."
Poslednja stvar koju ću reći. Ovo je najuzbudljivija avantura u kojoj ljudska bića učestvuju Ovo je najveća super moć koju su ljudi ikad imali. Bio bi zločin da ne učestvujete u tome zato što je se plašite, zato što se skrivate od nje. Možete učestvovati u etici. Možete učestvovati u politici. Možete učestvovati u biznisu. Možete razmišljati o tome kuda ide medicina. kuda ide industrija, kuda ćemo odvesti svet. Za sve nas bi bio zločin da ne budemo svesni da kada nam neko pokaže bazen i kaže jednu stvar, samo jednu stvar da ne slušamo ako je ta stvar "životni kod".
Thank you very much.
Mnogo vam hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)