I'm supposed to scare you, because it's about fear, right? And you should be really afraid, but not for the reasons why you think you should be. You should be really afraid that -- if we stick up the first slide on this thing -- there we go -- that you're missing out. Because if you spend this week thinking about Iraq and thinking about Bush and thinking about the stock market, you're going to miss one of the greatest adventures that we've ever been on. And this is what this adventure's really about. This is crystallized DNA. Every life form on this planet -- every insect, every bacteria, every plant, every animal, every human, every politician -- (Laughter) is coded in that stuff. And if you want to take a single crystal of DNA, it looks like that. And we're just beginning to understand this stuff. And this is the single most exciting adventure that we have ever been on. It's the single greatest mapping project we've ever been on. If you think that the mapping of America's made a difference, or landing on the moon, or this other stuff, it's the map of ourselves and the map of every plant and every insect and every bacteria that really makes a difference. And it's beginning to tell us a lot about evolution. (Laughter)
在這充滿危機感的時代, 我應該要來嚇唬各位, 對吧? 你們也真的應該要感到害怕, 但不是因為你們想像中的原因. 你們真正該擔心的是 -- 如果我們把第一張投影片放出來 -- 就像這樣 -- 是你錯過了什麼. 因為如果你一個禮拜下來都在想著 伊拉克, 布希, 還有股市, 那你就會錯過人類到目前為止最偉大的探險之一. 而這, 就是這個探險的主體. 這是DNA(去氧核糖核酸)的結晶體. 地球上的每一個生物體 -- 每一隻昆蟲, 每一個細菌, 每一棵植物, 每一隻動物, 每一個人, 甚至每一個政治人物 -- (笑聲) 都是用這個玩意兒編碼. 如果你想看個單一的DNA結晶體, 它長的就這個樣子. 而且我們才剛開始了解這個東西. 這真的是我們所經歷過最令人興奮的探險. 這是我們所從事過最偉大的圖譜建置工程. 如果你們認為把美洲大陸放到地圖上這件事 或是登陸月球, 或是人類其他重大歷史事件對世界的發展有重大的影響, 那麼, 我們人類, 還有每一棵植物, 每一隻昆蟲, 還有每一個細菌的基因圖譜, 才會真正重大的改變世界. 它已經開始告訴我們好多關於演化的事情. (笑聲)
It turns out that what this stuff is -- and Richard Dawkins has written about this -- is, this is really a river out of Eden. So, the 3.2 billion base pairs inside each of your cells is really a history of where you've been for the past billion years. And we could start dating things, and we could start changing medicine and archeology. It turns out that if you take the human species about 700 years ago, white Europeans diverged from black Africans in a very significant way. White Europeans were subject to the plague. And when they were subject to the plague, most people didn't survive, but those who survived had a mutation on the CCR5 receptor. And that mutation was passed on to their kids because they're the ones that survived, so there was a great deal of population pressure. In Africa, because you didn't have these cities, you didn't have that CCR5 population pressure mutation. We can date it to 700 years ago. That is one of the reasons why AIDS is raging across Africa as fast as it is, and not as fast across Europe. And we're beginning to find these little things for malaria, for sickle cell, for cancers. And in the measure that we map ourselves, this is the single greatest adventure that we'll ever be on. And this Friday, I want you to pull out a really good bottle of wine, and I want you to toast these two people. Because this Friday, 50 years ago, Watson and Crick found the structure of DNA, and that is almost as important a date as the 12th of February when we first mapped ourselves, but anyway, we'll get to that.
我們發現這東西 -- Richard Dawkins 早就寫過這件事 -- 這真的就是 "伊甸園之河". 所以, 你們每個人細胞中的32億對鹼基對 其實就是你們過去幾億年來的歷史紀錄. 所以我們可以開始鑑定日期, 可以開始改變醫學和考古學. 就拿700年前的人類來說, 我們就發現當時的歐洲人跟非洲人就有非常大的差異. 歐洲人當時飽受鼠疫侵害. 感染到鼠疫的人, 很少有人存活, 但只要是當時存活的人, 身上的CCR5接受子上都有個突變. 這個突變就被傳給他們的後代. 因為只有擁有這種突變的人存活了下來, 所以這種突變就在族群中非常普遍. 在非洲, 因為沒有這些人口密集的都市, 就沒有造成瘟疫盛行, 在非洲人身上就不會看到CCR5突變的普及. 我們可以精準的鑑定出這件事的發生是在700年前. 而這也就是為何愛滋病在非洲橫行, 卻沒有在歐洲傳染得那麼快速的原因. 我們也開始發現像是瘧疾, 鐮刀型細胞, 還有癌症, 其實都有類似的故事. 所以, 能夠把自己的基因圖譜建立起來, 真的將是人類最偉大的探險. 本週五, 我邀各位一起, 拿出一瓶極品的好酒, 向這兩位致敬. 因為就在50年前的本週五, Watson和Crick發現了DNA的結構. 這個日期幾乎就跟2月12日, 也就是我們首次完成人類基因圖譜的日子同等重要. 這個我們後頭還會再細談.
I thought we'd talk about the new zoo. So, all you guys have heard about DNA, all the stuff that DNA does, but some of the stuff we're discovering is kind of nifty because this turns out to be the single most abundant species on the planet. If you think you're successful or cockroaches are successful, it turns out that there's ten trillion trillion Pleurococcus sitting out there. And we didn't know that Pleurococcus was out there, which is part of the reason why this whole species-mapping project is so important. Because we're just beginning to learn where we came from and what we are. And we're finding amoebas like this. This is the amoeba dubia. And the amoeba dubia doesn't look like much, except that each of you has about 3.2 billion letters, which is what makes you you, as far as gene code inside each of your cells, and this little amoeba which, you know, sits in water in hundreds and millions and billions, turns out to have 620 billion base pairs of gene code inside. So, this little thingamajig has a genome that's 200 times the size of yours. And if you're thinking of efficient information storage mechanisms, it may not turn out to be chips. It may turn out to be something that looks a little like that amoeba.
我們先來談談最新的發展. 各位都已經聽過關於DNA的事, 還有DNA能做些甚麼, 不過我們最近的一個新發現實在是很酷 因為我們發現它是世界上數量最龐大的物種. 如果你們認為人類繁衍很成功, 或是蟑螂的繁衍很成功, 我們最近才發現世界上有十兆兆個這種名為 Pleurococcus的單細胞綠藻, 而我們卻一直都不知道有這種生物的存在. 這就是這個物種基因圖譜建置計畫 如此重要的原因之一. 就是因為有了這個圖譜, 我們才開始知道 我們到底從何而來, 還有我們到底是什麼. 我們也開始發現像這樣的變形蟲. 這是無恆變形蟲. 這個無恆變形蟲看起來其貌不揚, 不過你們每個人身上都帶著32億個字母, 而這些字母就躲在你們的基因深處 決定了你們是甚麼樣一個人. 而這個小小的變形蟲, 成萬成億的飄在水中, 身上卻有6千2百億對鹼基對. 換句話說, 這個小到不行的小不點兒的基因體 是你的200倍大. 如果你想要一個很有效率的資訊儲存裝置, 你的答案可能不是晶片, 而是一個類似那隻變形蟲的東西.
And, again, we're learning from life and how life works. This funky little thing: people didn't used to think that it was worth taking samples out of nuclear reactors because it was dangerous and, of course, nothing lived there. And then finally somebody picked up a microscope and looked at the water that was sitting next to the cores. And sitting next to that water in the cores was this little Deinococcus radiodurans, doing a backstroke, having its chromosomes blown apart every day, six, seven times, restitching them, living in about 200 times the radiation that would kill you. And by now you should be getting a hint as to how diverse and how important and how interesting this journey into life is, and how many different life forms there are, and how there can be different life forms living in very different places, maybe even outside of this planet. Because if you can live in radiation that looks like this, that brings up a whole series of interesting questions.
所以呢, 我們正在重新了解生命, 還有生命到底是怎麼一回事. 這個怪異的小東西. 人們從來就沒有想到過 要從核子反應爐中取出任何的樣本 因為很危險, 而且想當然爾, 裡頭根本也不可能有什麼生物存活. 然後就終於有一天有人拿起了一個顯微鏡 看看核反應爐裡面的水. 而就在這些反應核週圍的水裡 有隻小小的奇異球菌 Deinococcus radiodurans 正在仰泳, 它每天都要經歷染色體被炸開六七次, 再把染色體修補好 好端端的活在人類致死輻射量的200倍的環境中. 所以你應該可以開始理解到說這個探險的旅途 將有多麼的多元, 重要, 而且有趣, 這世界上究竟還有多少種不同的生物, 還有這些不同的生物究竟是如何的 在地球上, 甚至是在別的星球上, 生存. 因為如果你可以在這種等級的輻射之下生存, 那真的會引發一整串的有趣的問題.
This little thingamajig: we didn't know this thingamajig existed. We should have known that this existed because this is the only bacteria that you can see to the naked eye. So, this thing is 0.75 millimeters. It lives in a deep trench off the coast of Namibia. And what you're looking at with this namibiensis is the biggest bacteria we've ever seen. So, it's about the size of a little period on a sentence. Again, we didn't know this thing was there three years ago. We're just beginning this journey of life in the new zoo.
這個小小的小不點: 我們原本根本就不知道有這個小不點存在. 我們其實應該要知道他的存在的 因為它是我們唯一能夠用肉眼看到的細菌. 這小東西大約0.75公厘大. 它住在那米比亞外海的一個深溝裡. 而你們現在所看到的這個 namibiensis 就是我們現今見過最大的細菌. 它大概就只有句子後面的句點那麼一丁點大. 而我們在三年前還根本不知道有它的存在. 我們才剛開始這個生命的旅程.
This is a really odd one. This is Ferroplasma. The reason why Ferroplasma is interesting is because it eats iron, lives inside the equivalent of battery acid, and excretes sulfuric acid. So, when you think of odd life forms, when you think of what it takes to live, it turns out this is a very efficient life form, and they call it an archaea. Archaea means "the ancient ones." And the reason why they're ancient is because this thing came up when this planet was covered by things like sulfuric acid in batteries, and it was eating iron when the earth was part of a melted core. So, it's not just dogs and cats and whales and dolphins that you should be aware of and interested in on this little journey.
這個傢伙真的很怪. 它叫作 Ferroplasma. 這個Ferroplasma有趣的原因在於他會吃鐵, 而且生存在幾乎就等於電池酸液的環境之中, 而且會分泌硫酸. 所以如果你想到這一大堆怪異的生物, 想到他們究竟是如何生存, 就會發現它其實非常的有效率. 它的名字叫作"古菌", 意思就是"古老"的意思. 它之所以古老的原因是這個東西 在地球還都被類似電池中的硫酸 的東西包覆時就出現在地球上了, 在地球還是一整塊熔岩的時候就在這裡吃鐵了. 所以在這個旅途中, 你不應該只是對 小狗, 小貓, 鯨魚和海豚這些東西感興趣.
Your fear should be that you are not, that you're paying attention to stuff which is temporal. I mean, George Bush -- he's going to be gone, alright? Life isn't. Whether the humans survive or don't survive, these things are going to be living on this planet or other planets. And it's just beginning to understand this code of DNA that's really the most exciting intellectual adventure that we've ever been on.
你應該擔心的是你搞錯了, 你關心的都是些短暫的東西. 我的意思是說, 喬治布希 -- 他總有一天會成為過去, 對吧? 但生命不會. 不管人類是存活下去或是沒有存活下去, 這些生物將會繼續在這個地球, 甚至在別的星球上存活下去. 我們才剛開始了解DNA的遺傳密碼 這實在是我們所有的智能探險中 最最刺激的一次.
And you can do strange things with this stuff. This is a baby gaur. Conservation group gets together, tries to figure out how to breed an animal that's almost extinct. They can't do it naturally, so what they do with this thing is they take a spoon, take some cells out of an adult gaur's mouth, code, take the cells from that and insert it into a fertilized cow's egg, reprogram cow's egg -- different gene code. When you do that, the cow gives birth to a gaur. We are now experimenting with bongos, pandas, elands, Sumatran tigers, and the Australians -- bless their hearts -- are playing with these things.
我們可以用這個東西作些怪事. 這是隻雀鱔的幼兒. 保育團體會聚在一起, 討論要如何繁衍一種即將絕種的動物. 他們無法用自然的方法辦到, 所以他們就利用這個東西. 他們會拿個湯匙, 從一隻成年的雀鱔嘴裡刮出一些細胞, 解開他的密碼, 再拿些細胞注入牛的受精卵中, 把牛的卵重新編排成不同的基因密碼 然後, 牛就會生出一隻雀鱔. 我們現在正在拿紫羚, 貓熊, 和蘇門答臘虎作實驗. 還有澳洲人 -- 上天保佑他們 -- 在玩這些東西.
Now, the last of these things died in September 1936. These are Tasmanian tigers. The last known one died at the Hobart Zoo. But it turns out that as we learn more about gene code and how to reprogram species, we may be able to close the gene gaps in deteriorate DNA. And when we learn how to close the gene gaps, then we can put a full string of DNA together. And if we do that, and insert this into a fertilized wolf's egg, we may give birth to an animal that hasn't walked the earth since 1936. And then you can start going back further, and you can start thinking about dodos, and you can think about other species. And in other places, like Maryland, they're trying to figure out what the primordial ancestor is. Because each of us contains our entire gene code of where we've been for the past billion years, because we've evolved from that stuff, you can take that tree of life and collapse it back, and in the measure that you learn to reprogram, maybe we'll give birth to something that is very close to the first primordial ooze. And it's all coming out of things that look like this.
這些東西中的最後一隻在1936年九月死去了. 這是塔斯馬尼亞虎. 我們所知道的最後一隻是在Hobart動物園死去的. 不過隨著我們對基因密碼 和如何重整基因密碼的了解越多, 我們就越有機會修補缺損DNA的基因缺口. 我們一旦學會了如何修補這些基因缺口, 就可以重新把一串完整的DNA修復回來. 然後, 我們就可以把這個完整的DNA串注入一個狼的受精卵中, 就可以生出一隻 自1936年起就從地球上消失的生物. 然後你就可以追溯到更早之前的時間, 可以開始想多多鳥, 還有其它的物種. 另外還有像在美國馬里蘭州, 就有些人在試圖找出 所有生物的元祖. 就因為我們每個人身上都帶著 我們過去幾億年來曾經是些什麼, 因為我們就是從那些東西演化而來, 我們可以沿著那棵演化樹倒溯回去, 當我們學會了重整基因密碼, 我們就有可能生出一個 非常接近第一個原始生命體的有機質. 這一切, 都是從長得像這樣的東西生產出來的.
These are companies that didn't exist five years ago. Huge gene sequencing facilities the size of football fields. Some are public. Some are private. It takes about 5 billion dollars to sequence a human being the first time. Takes about 3 million dollars the second time. We will have a 1,000-dollar genome within the next five to eight years. That means each of you will contain on a CD your entire gene code. And it will be really boring. It will read like this. (Laughter) The really neat thing about this stuff is that's life. And Laurie's going to talk about this one a little bit. Because if you happen to find this one inside your body, you're in big trouble, because that's the source code for Ebola. That's one of the deadliest diseases known to humans. But plants work the same way and insects work the same way, and this apple works the same way. This apple is the same thing as this floppy disk. Because this thing codes ones and zeros, and this thing codes A, T, C, Gs, and it sits up there, absorbing energy on a tree, and one fine day it has enough energy to say, execute, and it goes [thump]. Right? (Laughter) And when it does that, pushes a .EXE, what it does is, it executes the first line of code, which reads just like that, AATCAGGGACCC, and that means: make a root. Next line of code: make a stem. Next line of code, TACGGGG: make a flower that's white, that blooms in the spring, that smells like this. In the measure that you have the code and the measure that you read it -- and, by the way, the first plant was read two years ago; the first human was read two years ago; the first insect was read two years ago.
這些公司在五年之前還不存在. 面積大得像好幾座美式足球場的巨型基因序列設施. 有些是公立的, 有些是私立的. 第一次將人類的基因序列完整的排列出來花了約美金50億元. 第二次作同一件事需要約美金300萬元. 在未來五到八年之內, 我們作出一整套人類的基因圖譜就會只需要美金1千元. 到時候你們每一個人都會用一張CD片把你整套的遺傳密碼存起來. 它看起來非常無聊, 就像這樣. (笑聲) 不過這玩意兒最妙的地方就在於, 這就是生命. 待會兒Laurie會跟大家聊一聊這一個東西. 因為如果你發現你身上有這個東西, 你的麻煩就大了. 因為這是伊波拉病毒的原始碼. 那是目前所知致死率最高的人類疾病. 但是植物和昆蟲也都是這樣運作, 這顆蘋果也是. 這顆蘋果基本上就跟這片磁片一樣. 因為磁片上是用一和零編碼, 而蘋果則是用 A, T, C, G 編碼. 他就靜靜的坐在樹上, 吸取能源, 直到某天風和日麗, 它吸足了能量, 要啟動生命程序, 就會"咚"的一聲掉下來, 對吧? (笑聲) 然後, 他就會啟動一個 .EXE 的程式, 開始執行第一行的編碼, 就像這樣 AATCAGGGACCC, 意思就是: 造一條根. 下一行: 造一枝莖. 再下一行, TACGGGG: 造一朵白色的花, 在春天裡綻放, 散出這樣的氣味. 如果你擁有它的密碼 並擁有解讀它的能力 -- 就像我們兩年前第一次讀懂了一株植物; 兩年前第一次讀懂了一個人; 兩年前第一次讀懂了一隻昆蟲.
The first thing that we ever read was in 1995: a little bacteria called Haemophilus influenzae. In the measure that you have the source code, as all of you know, you can change the source code, and you can reprogram life forms so that this little thingy becomes a vaccine, or this little thingy starts producing biomaterials, which is why DuPont is now growing a form of polyester that feels like silk in corn. This changes all rules. This is life, but we're reprogramming it. This is what you look like. This is one of your chromosomes. And what you can do now is, you can outlay exactly what your chromosome is, and what the gene code on that chromosome is right here, and what those genes code for, and what animals they code against, and then you can tie it to the literature. And in the measure that you can do that, you can go home today, and get on the Internet, and access the world's biggest public library, which is a library of life. And you can do some pretty strange things because in the same way as you can reprogram this apple, if you go to Cliff Tabin's lab at the Harvard Medical School, he's reprogramming chicken embryos to grow more wings. Why would Cliff be doing that? He doesn't have a restaurant. (Laughter)
事實上我們第一次讀懂一個生物是在1995年 一個叫作流感嗜血桿菌的小細菌. 眾所皆知, 一旦你擁有了原始碼, 你就可以改變原始碼, 重新改寫生物形式 所以這個小東西就會變成一個疫苗, 或是開始生產生物材料, 這就是為什麼現在杜邦公司可以"生長"出一種聚酯 摸起來就跟玉米中的細絲一模一樣. 這會改變所有的規則. 這是生命, 但是我們正在重新改寫它. 你就長這個樣子. 這是你的一條染色體. 而我們現在可以作的就是 把你的染色體全部譜出來 到時我們就可以看到那條染色體上的基因密碼到底是什麼, 知道那些基因是作什麼用的, 知道它跟哪一種動物的基因很像, 然後就可以把這個資訊聯結到文獻之中. 我們一旦可以這樣作, 就可以回到家裡, 上網連上世界上 最大的公共圖書館, 也就是生命的圖書館. 然後就可以作一些很怪異的事情. 因為就如同你可以改變這顆蘋果的基因, 如果你到哈佛大學醫學院Cliff Tabin的研究室, 你就可以看到他正在改造雞的胚胎好讓它多長幾隻翅膀. Cliff 這樣作是為了什麼? 他又不開餐館. (笑聲)
The reason why he's reprogramming that animal to have more wings is because when you used to play with lizards as a little child, and you picked up the lizard, sometimes the tail fell off, but it regrew. Not so in human beings: you cut off an arm, you cut off a leg -- it doesn't regrow. But because each of your cells contains your entire gene code, each cell can be reprogrammed, if we don't stop stem cell research and if we don't stop genomic research, to express different body functions. And in the measure that we learn how chickens grow wings, and what the program is for those cells to differentiate, one of the things we're going to be able to do is to stop undifferentiated cells, which you know as cancer, and one of the things we're going to learn how to do is how to reprogram cells like stem cells in such a way that they express bone, stomach, skin, pancreas. And you are likely to be wandering around -- and your children -- on regrown body parts in a reasonable period of time, in some places in the world where they don't stop the research.
他要讓小雞多長幾隻翅膀的目的, 是因為我們都知道小時候玩弄蜥蜴時, 我們把蜥蜴抓起來, 有時候它的尾巴會掉下來, 可是會再長出來. 但人類不能這樣. 人如果切斷一條手臂, 或切斷一條腿, 是不會長回來的. 但是因為你每一個細胞都包含了你全部的遺傳密碼, 每一個細胞都可以作重整, 只要我們不中斷幹細胞的研究, 不中斷基因體的研究, 我們就可以了解身體各種功能的基因表現. 我們一旦學會了如何讓雞長出翅膀, 了解讓那些細胞特化的機制, 我們將能作好多事情, 其中包括 制止未分化細胞的增生, 也就是一般所謂的癌症, 我們也將能夠 改造幹細胞 讓這些細胞表現成骨骼, 胃, 皮膚, 脾臟. 在不久的將來, 你和你的小孩 將可以帶著重新生長出來的身體部位到處晃蕩, 只要在這些研究沒有被停下來的地方,
How's this stuff work? If each of you differs from the person next to you by one in a thousand, but only three percent codes, which means it's only one in a thousand times three percent, very small differences in expression and punctuation can make a significant difference. Take a simple declarative sentence. (Laughter) Right? That's perfectly clear. So, men read that sentence, and they look at that sentence, and they read this. Okay? Now, women look at that sentence and they say, uh-uh, wrong. This is the way it should be seen. (Laughter) That's what your genes are doing. That's why you differ from this person over here by one in a thousand. Right? But, you know, he's reasonably good looking, but... I won't go there. You can do this stuff even without changing the punctuation. You can look at this, right? And they look at the world a little differently. They look at the same world and they say... (Laughter) That's how the same gene code -- that's why you have 30,000 genes, mice have 30,000 genes, husbands have 30,000 genes. Mice and men are the same. Wives know that, but anyway. You can make very small changes in gene code and get really different outcomes, even with the same string of letters. That's what your genes are doing every day. That's why sometimes a person's genes don't have to change a lot to get cancer.
這是如何辦到的? 如果你們之中每一個人 跟鄰座的人在百分之三的遺傳密碼中有千分之一的差異, 也就是千分之一再乘以百分之三, 在基因的表現和分歧上只要發生如此小的差異 就可以產生很顯著的差異. 就拿這個簡單的敘述句當例子. (笑聲) 對吧? 這就非常清楚了. 如果男人讀這句話, 他們的解讀是: "女人, 沒有了她的男人, 就什麼都不是." 對吧? 不過若換成女人看這個句子, 她們會說, 不對不對. 這句話應該是: "女人: 沒有了她, 男人就什麼都不是." (笑聲) 這就是你們的基因在作的事. 這也就是為什麼你跟這邊這個人差異這麼大了. 對吧? 他雖然還蠻帥的, 但是... 不扯這個了. 你即使不改變句讀, 都可以讓它很不一樣. 這是國稅局, 對吧? 不過國稅局看到同樣的字, 解讀會不太一樣. 他們看著相同的字卻會念成 "他們的"... (笑聲) 這就是為什麼同樣是三萬個基因, 你有三萬個基因, 老鼠有三萬個基因, 丈夫有三萬個基因. 老鼠跟人都一樣 (雙關語: 老鼠跟男人都一樣). 這點作妻子的早就知道了 ... 你可以在基因密碼中作點非常小的改變就得到非常不同的結果, 即使是用同一串字母. "讓我們一起去吧" // "讓我們去逮她吧" 這就是你的基因每天在作的事. 這也就是為什麼有的時候一個人的基因 不需要作太多的改變就會得到癌症.
These little chippies, these things are the size of a credit card. They will test any one of you for 60,000 genetic conditions. That brings up questions of privacy and insurability and all kinds of stuff, but it also allows us to start going after diseases, because if you run a person who has leukemia through something like this, it turns out that three diseases with completely similar clinical syndromes are completely different diseases. Because in ALL leukemia, that set of genes over there over-expresses. In MLL, it's the middle set of genes, and in AML, it's the bottom set of genes. And if one of those particular things is expressing in your body, then you take Gleevec and you're cured. If it is not expressing in your body, if you don't have one of those types -- a particular one of those types -- don't take Gleevec. It won't do anything for you. Same thing with Receptin if you've got breast cancer. Don't have an HER-2 receptor? Don't take Receptin. Changes the nature of medicine. Changes the predictions of medicine. Changes the way medicine works.
這些小晶片, 大小就差不多跟信用卡一樣大, 就可以檢測你有沒有60,000種基因的組合狀態. 這下隱私權跟保險受不受理的問題就會冒出來了 還有其他類似的問題, 不過它也能讓我們開始真正的解決疾病的問題 因為如果你讓一個有血癌的人作這個篩檢 會非常有幫助, 因為有三種不同的疾病 在臨床上的症狀幾乎完全類似 卻是三種完全不同的疾病. 因為在所有的血癌中, 這一組基因都會過度表現. 若是MLL型血癌, 就是中間那組基因, 若是AML型血癌, 就是下面那組基因. 如果找出來是這幾個基因在作怪 那就服用 Gleevec 便可以治癒 但如果不是這幾個基因的問題 那你就不是這幾種類型的血癌 不是其中的一種, 那就不要服用 Gleevec. 用那個藥對你一點用處都沒有. 如果你有乳癌, 要不要服用 Receptin 也是同樣的問題. 如果沒有 HER-2 接受體, 就不要服用 Receptin. 這會改變醫學的本質. 會改變醫學的預測. 改變行醫的方式.
The greatest repository of knowledge when most of us went to college was this thing, and it turns out that this is not so important any more. The U.S. Library of Congress, in terms of its printed volume of data, contains less data than is coming out of a good genomics company every month on a compound basis. Let me say that again: A single genomics company generates more data in a month, on a compound basis, than is in the printed collections of the Library of Congress. This is what's been powering the U.S. economy. It's Moore's Law. So, all of you know that the price of computers halves every 18 months and the power doubles, right? Except that when you lay that side by side with the speed with which gene data's being deposited in GenBank, Moore's Law is right here: it's the blue line. This is on a log scale, and that's what superexponential growth means. This is going to push computers to have to grow faster than they've been growing, because so far, there haven't been applications that have been required that need to go faster than Moore's Law. This stuff does.
當年我們還在念大學時最偉大的知識儲藏庫 就是這個, 但如今 它已經沒有那麼重要了. 美國國會圖書館所館藏的資料量 遠少於從一個好的基因體公司 每個月累積生產出來的資料量. 我再重複一次: 單單一個基因體公司 在一個月之內累積出來的資料產出 會比國會圖書館的館藏還要多. 這是美國經濟的原動力. 這是摩爾定律. 大家都知道, 電腦每18個月, 價錢就會砍一半 但運算能力變兩倍, 對吧? 但是如果你把它跟基因資料 被輸入基因資料庫的速度並排 這是摩爾定律, 就是藍線. 這是對數刻度, 意思就是它正在以超指數成長. 這會迫使電腦以比以前更快 的速度成長, 因為到目前為止 都還沒有任何需求說要比摩爾定律更快 但這個就會了
And here's an interesting map. This is a map which was finished at the Harvard Business School. One of the really interesting questions is, if all this data's free, who's using it? This is the greatest public library in the world. Well, it turns out that there's about 27 trillion bits moving inside from the United States to the United States; about 4.6 trillion is going over to those European countries; about 5.5's going to Japan; there's almost no communication between Japan, and nobody else is literate in this stuff. It's free. No one's reading it. They're focusing on the war; they're focusing on Bush; they're not interested in life. So, this is what a new map of the world looks like. That is the genomically literate world. And that is a problem. In fact, it's not a genomically literate world. You can break this out by states. And you can watch states rise and fall depending on their ability to speak a language of life, and you can watch New York fall off a cliff, and you can watch New Jersey fall off a cliff, and you can watch the rise of the new empires of intelligence. And you can break it out by counties, because it's specific counties. And if you want to get more specific, it's actually specific zip codes. (Laughter)
這是張很有趣的地圖 這地圖是在哈佛商學院完成的 有趣的是, 如果這些資料都是免費的 那是誰在用它? 這是世界上最大的公共圖書館 約有27兆位元的資料 在美國內部傳過來傳過去 約4.6兆位元的資料被傳到歐洲去 約5.5兆位元傳到日本去; 但日本內部幾乎沒有交換任何資訊, 除此之外, 世界其他各處都沒有人讀得懂這些東西. 明明是免費的, 但是沒有人在讀. 大家只關注戰爭 關注布希, 但沒有人關心生命. 所以, 這就是新的世界地圖 這是世界上讀得懂基因體的地區的地圖. 這裡有個問題. 就是, 這世界上大部分的地區都讀不懂基因體. 你可以用州去細分這張地圖 你可以看到一個州因為它是否 讀得懂生命的語言而盛衰 你可以看到紐約從懸崖上摔落 你可以看到紐澤西摔落 你可以看到新的智慧帝國興起 你也可以用縣細分這張地圖 如果你想更仔細 還可以用郵遞區號細分 (笑聲)
So, you want to know where life is happening? Well, in Southern California it's happening in 92121. And that's it. And that's the triangle between Salk, Scripps, UCSD, and it's called Torrey Pines Road. That means you don't need to be a big nation to be successful; it means you don't need a lot of people to be successful; and it means you can move most of the wealth of a country in about three or four carefully picked 747s.
所以, 你想知道生命在哪裡蓬勃發展嗎? 在南加州的話就是郵遞區號92121的地方 就是沙克學院(Salk), Scripps研究院, 和加州大學聖地牙哥分校 (UCSD) 之間的三角形, 叫作Torrey Pines 路的地方. 所以你並不需要國力強大才能成功; 你也不需要人數眾多才能成功; 你可以將一個國家大部分的財富 搬進三, 四台精心挑選的747客機裡頭.
Same thing in Massachusetts. Looks more spread out but -- oh, by the way, the ones that are the same color are contiguous. What's the net effect of this? In an agricultural society, the difference between the richest and the poorest, the most productive and the least productive, was five to one. Why? Because in agriculture, if you had 10 kids and you grow up a little bit earlier and you work a little bit harder, you could produce about five times more wealth, on average, than your neighbor. In a knowledge society, that number is now 427 to 1. It really matters if you're literate, not just in reading and writing in English and French and German, but in Microsoft and Linux and Apple. And very soon it's going to matter if you're literate in life code. So, if there is something you should fear, it's that you're not keeping your eye on the ball. Because it really matters who speaks life. That's why nations rise and fall.
麻塞諸塞州的狀況也是一樣, 雖然看起來比較分散些但是 -- 喔, 對了, 同樣的顏色代表連續分部. 所以這個現象的淨效應是什麼? 在農業社會裡, 最有錢和最窮的人的差異, 也就是產量最高者和產量最低者的差異, 是五比一. 為什麼? 因為在農業社會哩, 如果你有10個孩子 比別人早起工作, 也比別人努力工作, 你可以平均比你的鄰居多出 約五倍的財富. 在知識社會裡, 這個數字是427比1. 所以你懂不懂一個語言, 不只是說你能否用英文, 法文, 和德文, 讀跟寫, 還有微軟, Linux, 和蘋果. 不久的將來, 你懂不懂生命密碼將會舉足輕重. 所以如果你真的要擔心什麼 重點不是要隨時注意周遭在發生些什麼事. 真正重要的是: 誰讀得懂生命的語言. 這將會決定國家的盛衰.
And it turns out that if you went back to the 1870s, the most productive nation on earth was Australia, per person. And New Zealand was way up there. And then the U.S. came in about 1950, and then Switzerland about 1973, and then the U.S. got back on top -- beat up their chocolates and cuckoo clocks. And today, of course, you all know that the most productive nation on earth is Luxembourg, producing about one third more wealth per person per year than America. Tiny landlocked state. No oil. No diamonds. No natural resources. Just smart people moving bits. Different rules.
如果你回到1870年代 世界上每人平均產量最高的國家是澳洲. 當時紐西蘭的排名也很前面. 然後美國在1950年代興起, 然後瑞士在1973左右引領群雄, 然後美國又追上了 -- 打敗了瑞士的巧克力和咕咕鐘. 當然當今世上產量最高的國家 是盧森堡, 每人每年產出 比美國還多了三分之一. 小小的內陸國家, 沒有石油, 沒有鑽石, 沒有天然資源. 只是聰明的人民從事資訊業. 用著完全不同的規則.
Here's differential productivity rates. Here's how many people it takes to produce a single U.S. patent. So, about 3,000 Americans, 6,000 Koreans, 14,000 Brits, 790,000 Argentines. You want to know why Argentina's crashing? It's got nothing to do with inflation. It's got nothing to do with privatization. You can take a Harvard-educated Ivy League economist, stick him in charge of Argentina. He still crashes the country because he doesn't understand how the rules have changed. Oh, yeah, and it takes about 5.6 million Indians. Well, watch what happens to India. India and China used to be 40 percent of the global economy just at the Industrial Revolution, and they are now about 4.8 percent. Two billion people. One third of the global population producing 5 percent of the wealth because they didn't get this change, because they kept treating their people like serfs instead of like shareholders of a common project. They didn't keep the people who were educated. They didn't foment the businesses. They didn't do the IPOs. Silicon Valley did. And that's why they say that Silicon Valley has been powered by ICs. Not integrated circuits: Indians and Chinese. (Laughter)
這是生產力級差 每多少個美國人可以生產出一個專利. 所以美國要3,000人, 韓國要6,000人, 英國要14,000人, 阿根廷要790,000人. 你想知道阿根廷的經濟為什麼在急速衰退嗎? 跟通貨膨脹無關. 跟私有化無關. 你可以把一個哈佛大學畢業的長春藤經濟學家, 讓他負責阿根廷的經濟. 那個國家的經濟還是不會有起色. 因為他不會了解, 遊戲規則如何改變了. 對了, 印度呢? 要560萬印度人. 我們來看看印度的狀況. 印度和中國在工業革命的前夕 曾經佔世界經濟的40%, 現在只佔4.8%. 二十億人口. 世界上三分之一的人口生產世界上5%的財富. 因為他們沒有搭上這個改革, 因為他們一直把人當農奴對待, 而不是當作一個共同產業的股東. 他們沒有留住受到良好教育的人. 他們沒有助長企業, 沒有重視智慧財產. 矽谷作到了. 這就是為什麼他們說 矽谷是靠 IC 撐起來的. 可是這個 IC 指的不是積體電路, 而是印度人(Indians)和華人(Chinese). (笑聲)
Here's what's happening in the world. It turns out that if you'd gone to the U.N. in 1950, when it was founded, there were 50 countries in this world. It turns out there's now about 192. Country after country is splitting, seceding, succeeding, failing -- and it's all getting very fragmented. And this has not stopped. In the 1990s, these are sovereign states that did not exist before 1990. And this doesn't include fusions or name changes or changes in flags. We're generating about 3.12 states per year. People are taking control of their own states, sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. And the really interesting thing is, you and your kids are empowered to build great empires, and you don't need a lot to do it. (Music) And, given that the music is over, I was going to talk about how you can use this to generate a lot of wealth, and how code works. Moderator: Two minutes. (Laughter) Juan Enriquez: No, I'm going to stop there and we'll do it next year because I don't want to take any of Laurie's time. But thank you very much.
這就是世界上正在發生的事. 如果你在1950年到聯合國去 那時聯合國剛成立, 世界上只有50個國家. 現在世界上有192個國家. 許多國家一直在變動: 分裂, 獨立, 演變, 失敗. 國家趨於分裂, 而且這個趨勢並沒有停止. 1990年的時候, 這些獨立國家 在1990年之前並不存在. 而且這還不包括合併, 更名, 或國旗變更的新國家. 我們每年產生3.12個新國家. 越來越多的人民在掌控自己的國家. 有的時候變得比較好, 有的時候是越弄越糟. 不過真正有趣的是, 你和你的孩子都有能力創造偉大的帝國, 而且所需的並不多. (音樂) 我本來還要談 你們能夠如何運用這個生產很多的財富, 還有這個密碼如何運作. (主持人: 兩分鐘) (笑聲) 不過, 我還是停下來好了, 等明年再說 因為我不想佔用 Laurie 的時間. 謝謝各位.