Do you remember the story of Odysseus and the Sirens from high school or junior high school? There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home after the Trojan War. And he's standing on the deck of his ship, he's talking to his first mate, and he's saying, "Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks, and on those rocks sit some beautiful women called Sirens. And these women sing an enchanting song, a song so alluring that all sailors who hear it crash into the rocks and die." Now you would expect, given that, that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens, but instead Odysseus says, "I want to hear that song. And so what I'm going to do is I'm going to pour wax in the ears of you and all the men -- stay with me -- so that you can't hear the song, and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast so that I can listen and we can all sail by unaffected." So this is a captain putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk so that he can hear a song.
Sjećate li se priče o Odiseju i sirenama iz osnovne ili srednje škole? Junak Odisej vraćao se kući nakon Trojanskog rata. Stoji na palubi svog broda, razgovara sa svojim prvim časnikom i kaže: "Sutra ćemo ploviti pokraj onih stijena, a na tim stijenama sjede predivne žene koje se zovu Sirene. Te žene pjevaju čarobnu pjesmu, pjesmu tako zavodljivu da se svi mornari koji je čuju razbiju o stijene i poginu." Imajući to na umu, očekivali biste da će odabrati alternativni put okolo Sirena, no umjesto toga Odisej kaže: "Želim čuti tu pjesmu. Ono što ću učiniti jest da ću uliti vosak u uši tebi i cijeloj posadi -- pratite me -- kako vi ne biste mogli čuti pjesmu, a onda ćete me zavezati za jarbol kako bih ja mogao slušati, te svi zajedno možemo otploviti bez štete." Dakle, to je kapetan koji dovodi u opasnost život svake osobe na brodu kako bi mogao čuti neku pjesmu.
And I'd like to think if this was the case, they probably would have rehearsed it a few times. Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run. You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead. And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast. All right, so tie me to the mast." And the first mate takes a rope and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot. And Odysseus does his best job playacting and says, "Untie me. Untie me. I want to hear that song. Untie me." And the first mate wisely resists and doesn't untie Odysseus. And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it. All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner." And the first mate hesitates. He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal, or should I untie him?" And the first mate thinks, "Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end." So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out. He's like, "You idiot. You moron. If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead, every single one of the men will be dead. Now just don't untie me no matter what." He throws the first mate to the ground. This repeats itself through the night -- rehearsal, tying to the mast, conning his way out of it, beating the poor first mate up mercilessly. Hilarity ensues.
Volio bih misliti, ako je to bio slučaj, da bi vjerojatno nekoliko puta to isprobali. Odisej bi rekao: "U redu, hajdemo probati. Vi me zavežite za jarbol, a ja ću moliti i preklinjati. Što god rekao, vi me ne smijete odvezati s jarbola. U redu, zavežite me za jarbol." Prvi časnik uzme uže te dobro zaveže Odiseja za jarbol. Odisej se najbolje potrudi odglumiti i kaže: "Odvežite me. Odvežite me. Želim čuti tu pjesmu. Odvežite me." Prvi časnik se mudro odupire i ne odvezuje Odiseja. Potom Odisej kaže: "Vidim da shvaćaš. Dobro, sad me odveži pa ćemo večerati." Prvi časnik oklijeva. Misli si: "Je li ovo još uvijek proba ili bih ga trebao odvezati?" Prvi časnik pomisli: "Valjda u jednom trenu proba mora završiti." Pa odveže Odiseja, a Odisej poludi. Kaže: "Idiote. Glupane. Ako to sutra učiniš, ja sam mrtav, ti si mrtav, cijela će posada biti mrtva. Nemoj me odvezati što god da se dogodi." Gurne prvog časnika na pod. Ovo se ponavljalo tijekom cijele noći -- proba, vezivanje za jarbol, izvlačenje na prevaru, nemilosrdno prebijanje jadnog prvog časnika. Svi se smiju.
Tying yourself to a mast is perhaps the oldest written example of what psychologists call a commitment device. A commitment device is a decision that you make with a cool head to bind yourself so that you don't do something regrettable when you have a hot head. Because there's two heads inside one person when you think about it. Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves when it comes to questions of temptation. There is first, the present self. This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song. He just wants to get to the front row. He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification. But then there's this other self, the future self. This is Odysseus as an old man who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa with his wife Penelope outside of Ithaca -- the other one.
Vezivanje samog sebe za jarbol vjerojatno je najstariji pisani primjer onoga što psiholozi nazivaju dobrovoljno odricanje. Dobrovoljno je odricanje odluka koju donosite hladne glave kako biste se natjerali da usijane glave ne učinite nešto što biste mogli požaliti. Zato što u jednoj osobi postoje dvije glave, kad malo razmislite o tome. Znanstvenici već dugo spominju tu metaforu o dva 'ja' kad se radi o iskušenju. Postoji prvo, sadašnje 'ja'. Kao Odisej kad sluša pjesmu. Jedino što želi jest biti u prvom redu. Misli samo na sadašnjost i trenutno zadovoljstvo. No, postoji i to drugo 'ja', buduće 'ja'. To je Odisej kao star čovjek koji se samo želi povući u osunčanu vilu sa svojom ženom Penelopom izvan Itake -- one druge.
So why do we need commitment devices? Well resisting temptation is hard, as the 19th century English economist Nassau William Senior said, "To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power, or to seek distant rather than immediate results, are among the most painful exertions of the human will." If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people, you probably realize it's not that your goals are physically impossible that's keeping you from achieving them, it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them. It's physically possible to lose weight. It's physically possible to exercise more. But resisting temptation is hard.
Zašto trebamo alate za dobrovoljno odricanje? Teško je oduprijeti se iskušenju, kao što kaže Nassau William Stariji, engleski ekonomist iz 19. st.: "Suzdržati se od užitka koji je u našoj moći ili tražiti daleke radije nego brze rezultate, spada u najbolnije napore ljudske volje." Ako si postavite ciljeve i ako ste kao ostali ljudi, vjerojatno ćete shvatiti da ono što vas sprečava da ostvarite te ciljeve nije činjenica da su fizički nemogući, već nedostatak samodiscipline da ne odustanete. Fizički je moguće smršaviti. Fizički je moguće više vježbati. No, oduprijeti se iskušenju - to je teško.
The other reason that it's difficult to resist temptation is because it's an unequal battle between the present self and the future self. I mean, let's face it, the present self is present. It's in control. It's in power right now. It has these strong, heroic arms that can lift doughnuts into your mouth. And the future self is not even around. It's off in the future. It's weak. It doesn't even have a lawyer present. There's nobody to stick up for the future self. And so the present self can trounce all over its dreams. So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought, and we need commitment devices to level the playing field between the two.
Drugi razlog zašto je teško oduprijeti se iskušenju jest zato što je to neravnopravna borba između sadašnjeg i budućeg 'ja'. Budimo iskreni, sadašnje 'ja' je sadašnje. Ono ima kontrolu. Trenutno ono ima moć. Ima te snažne, junačke ruke koje mogu staviti krafne u vaša usta. A buduće 'ja' nalazi se negdje daleko. Ono je u budućnosti. Slabo je. Čak mu ni odvjetnik nije prisutan. Nema nikoga tko bi podupro buduće 'ja'. I tako sadašnje 'ja' može potući sve njegove snove. Dakle, vodi se ta bitka između dva 'ja' i treba nam to dobrovoljno odricanje kako bi borba između dva 'ja' bila ravnopravna.
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually. Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones such as locking a credit card away with a key or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it or unplugging your Internet connection so you can use your computer. I was creating commitment devices of my own long before I knew what they were. So when I was a starving post-doc at Columbia University, I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career. I had to write five pages a day towards papers or I would have to give up five dollars.
Ja zapravo zaista volim dobrovoljno odricanje. Vezivanje samog sebe za jarbol najstarije je, no ima i drugih, kao što su zaključavanje kreditne kartice ili nedonošenje brze hrane u kuću kako je ne biste pojeli ili isključivanje internet veze kako biste mogli korisiti kompjuter. Ja sam stvarao sam svoje mnogo prije nego sam znao što su. Dok sam bio gladan postdoktorant na sveučilištu Columbia, bio sam duboko u fazi 'objavi ili propadni' svoje karijere. Morao sam napisati pet stranica dnevno za svoje radove ili bih se morao odreći pet dolara.
And when you try to execute these commitment devices, you realize the devil is really in the details. Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars. I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal. And I thought, well I could give it to a charity or give it to my wife or something like that. But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages. Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good. So then I would kind of justify not writing by giving a gift. And then I kind of flipped that around and thought, well I could give it to the neo-Nazis. But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good, and so that wouldn't work. So ultimately, I just decided I would leave it in an envelope on the subway. Sometimes a good person would find it, sometimes a bad person would find it. On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money that I would regret. (Laughter) Such it is with commitment devices.
Kad pokušate koristiti te alate za dobrovoljno odricanje, shvatite da je vrag zapravo u detaljima. Jer nije tako lako odreći se pet dolara. Ne možete ih zapaliti; to je protuzakonito. Razmišljao sam da ih dam u dobrotvorne svrhe ili supruzi ili nešto takvo. Ali onda sam pomislio kako si šaljem pomiješane poruke. Zato što je nepisanje loše, ali je davanje u dobrotvorne svrhe dobro. Na neki bih način opravdao nepisanje davanjem dara. Zatim sam to preokrenuo i pomislio, pa mogao bih novac dati i neonacistima. No, tada sam shvatio da je to lošije nego što je pisanje dobro, tako da to ne bi funkcioniralo. Na kraju sam samo odlučio da ću ih ostaviti u kuverti u podzemnoj željeznici. Ponekad će ih pronaći dobra osoba, a ponekad loša. U prosjeku je to bila samo besmislena razmjena novca koju ću požaliti. (Smijeh) Tako je i s alatima za dobrovoljno odricanje.
But despite my like for them, there's two nagging concerns that I've always had about commitment devices, and you might feel this if you use them yourself. So the first is, when you've got one of these devices going, such as this contract to write everyday or pay, it's just a constant reminder that you have no self-control. You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device, I am nothing, I have no self-discipline." And then when you're ever in a situation where you don't have a commitment device in place -- like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut, and I have no defense mechanism," -- you just eat it. So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you. I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle. The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
No, unatoč tome što mi se sviđaju, postoje dvije naporne brige koje sam uvijek imao u vezi alata za dobrovoljno odricanje i mogli biste ih imati ako ih koristite. Dakle, prvo je što kad korisitite jedan od tih alata, kao što je ugovor za svakodnevno pisanje ili plaćanje, to je stalni podsjetnik da nemate samokontrolu. Samo si govorite: "Bez tebe, ja sam ništa. Nemam samodiscipline." I onda, ako ste ikad u situaciji da nemate spreman alat za dobrovoljno odricanje -- recimo: "O Bože, ova mi osoba nudi krafnu, a ja nemam obrambeni mehanizam." -- samo ju pojedete. Ne sviđa mi se kako vam oduzimaju moć. Mislim da je samodisciplina nešto kao mišić. Što ga više vježbate, to će biti jači.
The other problem with commitment devices is that you can always weasel your way out of them. You say, "Well, of course I can't write today, because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews, and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that. And so there's no way that this is going to work." So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate in one person. You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself, and you're weaseling your way out of it, and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.
Drugi problem s alatima za dobrovoljno odricanje jest što se uvijek možete izvući iz njih. Kažete: "Naravno da ne mogu danas pisati zato što ću održati TEDTalk i imam pet intervjua za medije, a onda idem na koktel zabavu i bit ću pijan nakon toga. Nema šanse da će to funkcionirati." Dakle, vi ste kao Odisej i prvi časnik u jednoj osobi. Predajete se, obvezujete se i izvlačite se iz toga, a onda se kasnije grizete.
So I've been working for about a decade now on finding other ways to change people's relationship to the future self without using commitment devices. In particular, I'm interested in the relationship to the future financial self. And this is a timely issue. I'm talking about the topic of saving. Now saving is a classic two selves problem. The present self does not want to save at all. It wants to consume. Whereas the future self wants the present self to save. So this is a timely problem. We look at the savings rate and it has been declining since the 1950s. At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index, the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement, has been increasing. And we're at a situation now where for every three baby boomers, the McKinsey Global Institute predicts that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs while they're in retirement.
Radim već desetak godina na pronalasku drugih načina za promjenu odnosa ljudi prema budućem 'ja' bez korištenja alata za dobrovoljno odricanje. Posebno me zanima odnos prema budućem financijskom 'ja'. To je goruće pitanje. Govorim o štednji. Znači, štednja je klasični problem dvostrukog 'ja'. Sadašnje 'ja' uopće ne želi štedjeti. Ono želi trošiti. Dok buduće 'ja' želi da sadašnje 'ja' štedi. Dakle, to je gorući problem. Gledamo stope štednje, koje su u opadanju od 1950-ih. U isto vrijeme, indeks rizika umirovljenja, mogućnost da nećete moći zadovoljiti svoje potrebe u mirovini, u porastu je. Trenutno smo u situaciji gdje od svake tri osobe rođene sredinom 20. st. McKinsey Global Institute predviđa da dvije neće uspjeti zadovoljiti svoje predmirovinske potrebe dok su u mirovini.
So what can we do about this? There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit, who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I. He said that, "We might neglect our future selves because of some failure of belief or imagination." That is to say, we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old, or we might not be able to imagine that we're going to get old some day. On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous. Of course, we know that we're going to get old. But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?
Što možemo poduzeti oko toga? Postoji filozof Derek Parfit, koji je rekao nešto što je inspiriralo moje suautore i mene. Rekao je: "Možda zanemarujemo svoje buduće 'ja' zbog nekog promašenog vjerovanja ili zamišljanja." Time želi reći da možda nekako ne vjerujemo da ćemo ostarjeti ili da možda ne možemo zamisliti da ćemo jednog dana biti stari. U jednu ruku, to zvuči smiješno. Naravno da znamo da ćemo ostarjeti. No, postoje li stvari u koje vjerujemo i ne vjerujemo u isto vrijeme?
So my coauthors and I have used computers, the greatest tool of our time, to assist people's imagination and help them imagine what it might be like to go into the future. And I'll show you some of these tools right here. The first is called the distribution builder. It shows people what the future might be like by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes that might be obtained in the future. Each outcome is shown by one of these markers, and each sits on a row that represents a level of wealth and retirement. Being up at the top means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement. Being down at the bottom means that you're struggling to make ends meet. When you make an investment, what you're really saying is, "I accept that any one of these 100 things could happen to me and determine my wealth."
Moji suautori i ja koristimo kompjutere, najveći alat našeg vremena, kako bismo pomogli ljudskoj mašti te ih poduprijeli da zamisle kako bi bilo otići u budućnost. Sada ću vam pokazati neke od tih alata. Prvi je takozvani alat za distribuciju. Pokazuje ljudima kakva bi budućnost mogla biti pokazujući im stotine jednako vjerojatnih rezultata koji bi mogli nastati u budućnosti. Svaki je rezultat prikazan jednom od ovih oznaka, te se svaka nalazi u redu koji predstavlja razinu bogatstva i mirovine. Mjesto na vrhu znači da ćete imati visoke prihode u mirovini. Mjesto na dnu znači da ćete teško spajati kraj s krajem. Kad ulažete, ono što zaista govorite jest: "Prihvaćam da bi mi se bilo koja od ovih sto stvari mogla dogoditi i time odrediti moje bogatstvo."
Now you can try to move your outcomes around. You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing, but it costs you something to do it. It means that you have to save more today. Once you find an investment that you're happy with, what people do is they click "done" and the markers begin to disappear, slowly, one by one. It simulates what it is like to invest in something and to watch that investment pan out. At the end, there will only be one marker left standing and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
Možete pokušati razmjestiti svoje rezultate. Možete pokušati manipulirati svojom sudbinom, poput ove osobe, ali to će vas koštati. To znači da danas morate više štedjeti. Jednom kad pronađete ulaganje s kojim ste zadovoljni, ljudi kliknu na "gotovo" i oznake počinju nestajati, polako, jedna po jedna. To je simulacija kako je to ulagati u nešto i gledati kako to ulaganje donosi uspjeh. Na kraju će ostati samo jedna oznaka i ona će odrediti vaše bogatstvo u mirovini.
Yes, this person retired at 150 percent of their working income in retirement. They're making more money while retired than they were making while they were working. If you're like most people, just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy -- just to think about making 50 percent more money in retirement than before. However, had you ended up on the very bottom, it might have given you a slight sense of dread and/or nausea thinking about struggling to get by in retirement. By using this tool over and over and simulating outcome after outcome, people can understand that the investments and savings that they undertake today determine their well-being in the future.
Da, ova je osoba otišla u mirovinu sa 150 posto svojeg radnog prihoda. Više zarađuju u mirovini nego što su zarađivali dok su radili. Ako ste kao većina ljudi, samo gledanje ovoga daje vam mali osjećaj sreće i zadovoljstva -- sama pomisao na zarađivanje 50 posto više novca u mirovini nego prije. No, da ste završili na samom dnu, to bi vam moglo dati blagi osjećaj straha i/ili muke, dok razmišljate o borbi za preživljavanje u mirovini. Stalnim korišenjem ovog alata i simuliranjem posljedice za posljedicom ljudi mogu razumijeti da ulaganja i štednja koje poduzmu danas određuju njihovo blagostanje u budućnosti.
Now people are motivated through emotions, but different people find different things motivating. This is a simulation that uses graphics, but other people find motivating what money can buy, not just numbers. So here I made a distribution builder where instead of showing numerical outcomes, I show people what those outcomes will get you, in particular apartments that you can afford if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500, 2,000 dollars per month and so on. As you move down the ladder of apartments, you see that they get worse and worse. Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student. And as you get to the very bottom, you're faced with the unfortunate reality that if you don't save anything for retirement, you won't be able to afford any housing at all. Those are actual pictures of actual apartments renting for that amount as advertised on the Internet.
Ljudi se motiviraju putem emocija, no različite ljude motiviraju različte stvari. Ovo je simulacija koja koristi grafički prikaz, no druge ljude motivira ono što se može kupiti novcem, a ne samo brojevi. Stoga sam napravio alat za distribuciju gdje umjesto prikazivanja brojčanih rezultata, pokazujem ljudima kamo će vas ti rezultati odvesti, u određen stan koji si možete priuštiti ako ste vam je mirovina 3000, 2500, 2000 dolara mjesečno i tako dalje. Kako se spuštate po ljestvici stanova, vidite da postaju gori i gori. Neki od njih izgledaju kao mjesta gdje sam živio tijekom diplomskog studija. Kako dolazite do samog dna, suočeni ste s nesretnom realnošću da ako ništa ne štedite za mirovinu, nećete si moći priuštiti nikakvo stanovanje. Ovo su stvarne slike stvarnih stanova koji se iznajmljuju za taj iznos kao što je oglašeno na internetu.
The last thing I'll show you, the last behavioral time machine, is something that I created with Hal Hershfield, who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project, Bill Sharpe. And what it is is an exploration into virtual reality. So what we do is we take pictures of people -- in this case, college-age people -- and we use software to age them and show these people what they'll look like when they're 60, 70, 80 years old. And we try to test whether actually assisting your imagination by looking at the face of your future self can change you investment behavior.
Zadnja stvar koju ću vam pokazati jest posljednji vremenski stroj ponašanja, nešto što sam stvorio s Halom Hershfieldom, s kojim me upoznao moj suautor na prijašnjem projektu Bill Sharpe. Ovdje se radi o pregledu virtualne stvarnosti. Mi, dakle, fotografiramo ljude -- u ovom slučaju, ljude studentske dobi -- te koristimo kompjuterski program da ih postaramo i pokažemo tim ljudima kako će izgledati sa 60, 70, 80 godina. Pokušavamo provjeriti hoće li pomaganje mašti gledanjem u lice budućeg 'ja' promijeniti vaše ponašanje u vezi ulaganja.
So this is one of our experiments. Here we see the face of the young subject on the left. He's given a control that allows him to adjust his savings rate. As he moves his savings rate down, it means that he's saving zero when it's all the way here at the left. You can see his current annual income -- this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today -- is quite high, 91 percent, but his retirement income is quite low. He's going to retire on 44 percent of what he earned while he was working. If he saves the maximum legal amount, his retirement income goes up, but he's unhappy because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today. Other conditions show people the future self. And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse. If you save very little, the future self is unhappy living on 44 percent of the income. Whereas if the present self saves a lot, the future self is delighted, where the income is close up near 100 percent.
Ovo je jedan od naših pokusa. Ovdje nalijevo vidimo lice mladog subjekta. Ima kontrolu koja mu omogućava da prilagodi svoju stopu štednje. Kako smanjuje svoju stopu štednje, to znači da ne štedi ništa kad se nalazi skroz nalijevo. Vidite da je njegov trenutni godišnji prihod -- ovo je postotak plaće koju danas može ponijeti kući -- vrlo visok, 91 posto, no njegov prihod u mirovini dosta je nizak. Otići će u mirovinu s 44 posto od onoga što je zarađivao dok je radio. Ako uštedi maksimalan zakonski iznos, njegova će se mirovina povisiti, no on nije sretan jer sada ima manje novca na lijevoj strani za trošenje danas. Druge okolnosti pokazuju ljudima buduće 'ja'. Sa stajališta budućeg 'ja', sve je obratno. Ako jako malo uštedite, buduće 'ja' je nesretno jer živi s 44 posto prihoda. Ako sadašnje 'ja' puno uštedi, buduće 'ja' je oduševljeno, jer je prihod blizu sto posto.
To bring this to a wider audience, I've been working with Hal and Allianz to create something we call the behavioral time machine, in which you not only get to see yourself in the future, but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions to different levels of retirement wealth. So for instance, here is somebody using the tool. And just watch the facial expressions as they move the slider. The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing. The older face is miserable. And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate. And then it's a high savings rate. The younger face is getting unhappy. The older face is quite pleased with the decision. We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do. And what's nice about it is it's not something that biasing people actually, because as one face smiles, the other face frowns. It's not telling you which way to put the slider, it's just reminding you that you are connected to and legally tied to this future self.
Kako bih ovo približio široj publici, radim s Halom i Allianzom na stvaranju nečega što zovemo vremenskim strojem ponašanja u kojem ne samo da vidite sebe u budućnosti, nego možete vidjeti očekivane emotivne reakcije na različite razine bogatstva u mirovini. Na primjer, ovdje netko koristi taj alat. Samo gledajte izraze lica dok se pomiču na klizaču. Mlađe lice postaje sretnije i sretnije ne štedeći ništa. Starije lice je nesretno. Polako, polako približavamo ga srednjoj stopi štednje. A onda dolazi visoka stopa štednje. Mlado lice postaje nesretnije. Starije je lice prilično zadovoljno odlukom. Vidjet ćemo ima li ovo utjecaja na ono što ljudi rade. Dobra stvar u ovome jest da to zapravo ne opredjeljuje ljude, jer dok se jedno lice smije, drugo se lice mrgodi. Ne govori vam kamo pomaknuti klizač nego vas samo podsjeća da ste povezani i zakonom obvezani tom budućem 'ja'.
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being. And that's something that's easy to forget. This use of virtual reality is not just good for making people look older. There are programs you can get to see how people might look if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun, if they gain weight and so on. And what's good is, unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith, you don't have to program these by yourself in order to see the virtual reality. There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars that do the same thing. This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor. You might recognize him from the previous demos. And just for kicks we ran his picture through the balding, aging and weight gain software to see how he would look. Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself to disabuse you of that last image. And I'll close it there.
Vaše današnje odluke odredit će vaše blagostanje. A to se lako zaboravlja. Ova upotreba virtualne stvarnosti nije samo dobra da postara ljude. Ima programa koje možete nabaviti da biste vidjeli kako bi ljudi izgledali ako puše, ako se previše izlažu suncu, ako se udebljaju i tako dalje. Dobra je stvar da, za razliku od pokusa koje smo Hal i ja izvodili s Russom Smithom, ne morate to sami programirati da biste vidjeli virtualnu stvarnost. Postoje aplikacije koje možete kupiti na pametnim telefonima za nekoliko dolara, koje rade istu stvar. Ovo na slici je Hal, moj suautor. Možda ga prepoznajete s prijašnjih demo-snimki. Samo za zabavu provukli smo njegovu sliku kroz kompjuterski program za ćelavljenje, starenje i debljanje da vidimo kako bi izgledao. Hal je ovdje, tako da mislim da dugujemo i njemu i vama da vas poštedimo te zadnje slike. S time ću završiti.
On behalf of Hal and myself, I wish all the best to your present and future selves. Thank you.
U Halovo i moje ime, želim sve najbolje vašem sadašnjem i budućem 'ja'. Hvala.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)