Africa is booming. Per capita incomes since the year 2000 have doubled, and this boom is impacting on everyone. Life expectancy has increased by one year every three years for the last decade. That means if an African child is born today, rather than three days ago, they will get an extra day of life at the end of their lifespan. It's that quick. And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent: 600,000 less people a year are getting HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The battle against malaria is being won, with deaths from malaria down 27 percent, according to the latest World Bank data. And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that. This shouldn't surprise us, because actually, everybody grows. If you go back to Imperial Rome in the Year 1 A.D., there was admittedly about 1,800 years where there wasn't an awful lot of growth. But then the people that the Romans would have called Scottish barbarians, my ancestors, were actually part of the Industrial Revolution, and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate, and you saw that get quicker and quicker, and it's been impacting everyone. It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore or the tundra of northern Finland. Everybody gets involved. It's just a matter of when the inevitable happens.
Afrika je u usponu. Prihod po glavi stanovnika se udvostručio od 2000. i ovaj uspon utiče na sve. Životni vek se produžio za po godinu dana svake treće godine tokom ove poslednje decenije. To znači da dete rođeno u Africi danas u odnosu na dete rođeno pre 3 dana dobija jedan dodatni dan u svom životnom veku. To se odvija neverovatnom brzinom. I HIV infekcije su se smanjile za 27%. Svake godine se zarazi 600 000 manje ljudi ovim virusom u podsaharskoj Africi. Pobeda protiv malarije je na vidiku, sa 27% pada stope smrtnosti, prema poslednjim podacima Svetske banke. Mreže protiv malarije igraju bitnu ulogu u tome. Ovo ne bi trebalo da nas iznenadi, jer, u stvari, svi rastu. Ukoliko se vratimo u stari Rim u prvoj godini Nove ere, mora se priznati da za oko 1 800 godina od tada nije bilo previše rasta. Ali, moji preci, koje bi Rimljani nazvali škotskim varvarima, su u stvari bili deo industrijske revolucije. I u 19. veku, razvoj je počeo da se ubrzava i videli ste da je bio sve brži i brži i da je uticao na sve. Nije bitno da li su to džungle u Singapuru ili tundre u severnoj Finskoj. Svi su uključeni. Samo je pitanje vremena kada će se neizbežno desiti.
Among the reasons I think it's happening right now is the quality of the leadership across Africa. I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s, the greatest politician in the world was African, but I'm meeting brilliant people across the continent the entire time, and they're doing the reforms which have transformed the economic situation for their countries.
Jedan od razloga što se to dešava baš sada je kvalitet vladavine širom Afrike. Mislim da bi se većina sa mnom složila da je tokom '90-ih najgenijalniji političar na svetu bio Afrikanac. Ali ja srećem brilijantne ljude uzduž i popreko čitavog kontinenta sve vreme, i oni rade na reformama koje su transformisale ekonomsku situaciju u njihovim zemljama.
And the West is engaging with that. The West has given debt forgiveness programs which have halved sub-Saharan debt from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40. At the same time, our debt level's gone up to 120 and we're all feeling slightly miserable as a result. Politics gets weaker when debt is high. When public sector debt is low, governments don't have to choose between investing in education and health and paying interest on that debt you owe. And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good. The private sector as well. Again, in the West, we have private sector debt of 200 percent of GDP in Spain, the U.K., and the U.S. That's an awful lot of debt. Africa, many African countries, are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP. If there's any continent that can do what China has done -- China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart -- if anyone can do what China has done in the last 30 years, it'll be Africa in the next 30.
Zapadni svet je uključen u to. Zapad je pružio programe oproštaja duga koji su prepolovili podsaharski dug od oko 70% nacionalnih BDP-a na oko 40%. U isto vreme, nivo našeg duga se popeo na 120% i svi mi se osećamo pomalo bedno kao rezultat toga. Politika države oslabi kada je dug visok. Kada je dug javnog sektora nizak, vlade ne moraju da biraju između ulaganja u obrazovanje i zdravstvo i plaćanja kamate na državne dugove. Nije samo javni sektor koji je dobrostojeći, već i privatni sektor. Da napomenem, na Zapadu, mi imamo dug privatnog sektora na nivou od 200% BDP-a u Španiji, Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu i Sjedinjenim državama. To su jako velika dugovanja. Afrika, mnoge afričke zemlje, imaju 10% do 30% duga od ukupnog BDP-a. Ukoliko postoji neki kontinent koji može da učini ono sto je Kina učinila - Kina je na 130% BDP-a na ovom grafikonu - ako neko može da učini ono što je Kina učinila tokom poslednjih 30 godina to bi bila Afrika u narednih 30.
So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt. Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do. Foreign direct investment has poured into Africa in the last 15 years. Back in the '70s, no one touched the continent with a barge pole. And this investment is actually Western-led. We hear a lot about China, and they do lend a lot of money, but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada. Ten percent's come from India. And they're investing in energy. Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now. It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia. And they're investing in telecoms, shopping malls. And this very encouraging story, I think, is partly demographic-led. And it's not just about African demographics. I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in various parts of the world, and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second. Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn setting up an iPhone factory, by chance. You might choose China, which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line, where there's 200 million young people, and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger. Which means you're going to have new guys knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job," and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job." Now, that's completely changed now. This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China. So where do you set up your new factory? You look at South Asia, and people are. They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh, and they're also looking at Africa. And they're looking at Africa because that yellow line is showing you that the number of young Africans is going to continue to get bigger decade after decade after decade out to 2050.
Oni imaju fantastične državne budžete i jako dobar dug privatnog sektora. Da li neko prepoznaje ovo? Prepoznaje. Direktne strane investicije se slivaju u Afriku tokom poslednjih 15 godina. Tokom '70-ih godina, nikome nije padalo na pamet da se dotakne kontinenta. A ove investicije su predvođene Zapadom. Mi čujemo dosta o Kini, i oni pozajmljuju dosta novca, ali 60% stranih investicija poslednjih nekoliko godina je došlo iz Evrope, Amerike, Australije, Kanade. 10% je prispelo iz Indije. I oni ulažu u energiju. Afrika prozvodi 10 miliona barela nafte dnevno. To je isto kao i Saudijska Arabija ili Rusija. I oni ulažu u telekomunikacije, tržne centre. Ova jako ohrabrujuća priča je delimično predvođena demografijom. I nije samo reč o afričkoj demografiji. Pogledajte broj mladih, raspon godina 15 do 24, u različitim delovima sveta, i želim da se fokusirate na plavu liniju za trenutak. Pre 10 godina, recimo vi ste Fokskon kompanija koja postavlja jednu fabriku ajfona, na primer. Vi možda izaberete Kinu, koja predstavlja najveći procenat istočno-azijske plave linije, gde postoji 200 miliona mladih ljudi, i svake godine do 2010., taj broj je bivao veći. To znači da ćete imati mlade koji će kucati na vaša vrata i govoriti: "Dajte nam posao," i: "Meni ne treba velika povišica, samo mi dajte posao". Sada se to potpuno promenilo. Ove decenije, videćemo pad od 20-30% u broju mladih od 15-24 godina u Kini. Onda gde da postavite vašu novu fabriku? Razmatrate južnu Aziju, kao i drugi ljudi. Oni razmatraju Pakistan i Bangladeš, i isto tako Afriku. I oni razmatraju Afriku jer žuta linija vam pokazuje da će broj mladih Afrikanaca nastaviti da raste, deceniju za decenijom sve do 2050.
Now, there's a problem with lots of young people coming into any market, particularly when they're young men. A bit dangerous, sometimes. I think one of the crucial factors is how educated is that demographic? If you look at the red line here, what you're going to see is that in 1975, just nine percent of kids were in secondary school education in sub-Saharan Africa. Would you set up a factory in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s? Nobody else did. They chose instead Turkey and Mexico to set up the textiles factories, because their education levels were 25 to 30 percent. Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975. They will get the textiles jobs that will take people out of rural poverty and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth.
Postoji problem kada mnogo mladih stigne na tržište rada u isto vreme, naročito kada su to mladići. Ponekad malo i opasno. Po mom mišljenju, jedan od presudnih faktora je nivo obrazovanja te demografske grupacije. Ako pogledate ovu crvenu liniju videćete da je 1975. samo 9% mladih pohađalo srednju školu u podsaharskoj Africi. Da li biste izgradili fabriku u podsaharskoj oblasti sredinom 1970-ih? Niko nije. Oni su izabrali Tursku i Meksiko da izgrade fabrike tekstilnih proizvoda, zato što je nivo obrazovanja u tim zemljama bio 25-30% populacije. Danas, podsaharaska Afrika je na tom nivou gde su Turska i Meksiko bili 1975. Mladi u Africi će dobiti poslove u tekstilnim fabrikama koji će izbaviti ljude iz ruralnog siromaštva i usmeriti ih na put ka industrijalizaciji i bogatstvu.
So what's Africa looking like today? This is how I look at Africa. It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist. Each little box is about a billion dollars, and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention to Nigeria sitting there in the middle. South Africa is playing a role. But when I'm thinking about the future, I'm actually most interested in Central, Western and Southern Africa. If I look at Africa by population, East Africa stands out as so much potential.
Kako izgleda Afrika danas? Ja ovako gledam na Afriku. Malo je čudno, jer sam ja ekonomista. Svaka mala kutija vredi milijardu dolara, i vidite da ja usmeravam mnogo pažnje na Nigeriju koja je u sredini. Juznoafrička republika igra značajnu ulogu. Ali kad razmišljam o budućnosti, ja sam najviše zainteresovan za centralni, zapadni i južni deo Afrike. Ako gledam na Afriku iz ugla broja stanovnika, istočna Afrika se ističe sa velikim potencijalom.
And I'm showing you something else with these maps. I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy. Fragile democracies is the beige color. Strong democracies are the orange color. And what you'll see here is that most Africans are now living in democracies. Why does that matter? Because what people want is what politicians try, they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver. And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on. In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012, the battle between the two candidates was over education. One guy offered free secondary school education to all, not just 30 percent. The other guy had to say, I'm going to build 50 new schools. He won by a margin. So democracy is encouraging governments to invest in education. Education is helping growth and investment, and that's giving budget revenues, which is giving governments more money, which is helping growth through education. It's a positive, virtuous circle.
Ja vam pokazujem nešto drugo na ovim mapama. Pokazujem vam demokratiju protiv autokratije. Krhke demokratije su u bež boji. Jake demokratije su u narandžastoj boji. Vi vidite ovde da većina Afrikanaca danas živi u demokratijama. Zašto je to bitno? Zato što ono što ljudi žele je to što političari pokušavaju. Oni ne uspevaju uvek, ali pokušaju i isporuče. Ono što se dešava je da se pozitivni krug ojačava. Decembra 2012. na izborima u Gani, borba između dva kandidata se vodila na polju obrazovanja. Jedan kandidat je nudio besplatno srednjoškolsko obrazovanje za sve, ne samo za 30%. Drugi kandidat je rekao: "Ja ću da izgradim 50 novih škola". Pobedio je sa malom razlikom. Demokratija podrazumeva ohrabrivanje vlada da ulažu u obrazovanje. Obrazovanje pomaže privrednom rastu i investicijama i to povećava budžetske prihode, samim tim vlade raspolažu sa više para, i samim tim potpomažu rast kroz obrazovanje. To je pozitivni, začarani krug.
But I get asked this question, and this particular question makes me quite sad: It's, "But what about corruption? How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?" And what makes me sad about it is that this graph here is showing you that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth. When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority. And the countries on the right hand side, you'll see the per capita GDP, basically every country with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars, has got a corruption score of roughly, what's that, about three? Three out of 10. That's not good. Every poor country is corrupt. Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt. How do you get from poverty and corruption to wealth and less corruption? You see the middle class grow. And the way to do that is to invest, not to say I'm not investing in that continent because there's too much corruption.
Ali stalno me pitaju, i ovo specifično pitanje me čini izuzetno tužnim: "A šta sa korupcijom? Kako da investiramo u Afriku pored korupcije?" I ono sto me čini tužnim u vezi sa tim je to što vam ovaj grafikon pokazuje - da bogatstvo i korupcija imaju najveću korelaciju. Kad si siromašan, korupcija ti nije najveći prioritet. Zemlje sa desne strane, videćete BDP po glavi stanovnika, u suštini svaka zemlja sa BDP-om po glavi stanovnika, recimo, manjim od 5000 američkih dolara, ima nivo korupcije od otprilike šta je to, tri? Tri na skali od deset. To nije dobro. Svaka siromašna zemlja je korumpirana. Svaka bogata zemlja je relativno nekorumpirana. Kako da se pređe od siromaštva i korupcije na bogatstvo i manje korupcije? Videćete jačanje srednje klase. I način da se to desi su investicije, a ne reći da ja ne investiram u taj kontinent zato što je korupcija suviše rasprostranjena.
Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption. I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe -- not in Africa, actually. But what I'm saying here is that we can make a difference and we can do that by investing.
Ja nemam nameru da stanem u odbranu korupcije. Bio sam uhapšen zato što sam odbio da dam mito - zapravo ne u Africi. Ali ono što podvlačim ovde je da mi možemo da napravimo razliku i to možemo da uradimo kroz investicije.
Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret. Economists aren't great at forecasting. Because the question really is, what happens next? And if you go back to the year 2000, what you'll find is The Economist had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent," and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent -- and they said, what's going to happen in the next 10 years? They assumed two percent, and that made it a pretty hopeless story, because population growth was two and a half. People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s. Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover, and what does that new cover show? That new cover shows, well, Africa rising, because the growth over the last 10 years has been about five and a half percent.
Sada ću da vam otkrijem jednu malu ne baš toliku tajnu. Ekonomisti nisu baš tako dobri u prognozama. Zato je je u stvari pitanje, šta se dešava sledeće? I ako se vratite u 2000., naći ćete veoma slavnu naslovnu stranu magazina "Ekonomist", "Beznadežni kontinent." Oni su gledali na rast u Africi tokom prethodnih10 godina, koji je 2%, i pitali su se, šta će se desiti u narednih deset godina? "Ekonomist" je pretpostavio 2% rasta, i tako je nastala beznadežna priča, zato što je rast stanovništva bio na 2,5%. Ljudi u Africi su osiromašili tokom '90-ih. U 2012. "Ekonomist" ima novu naslovnu stranu, i šta ta nova naslovna strana pokazuje? Pokazuje da se Afrika uzdiže, zato što je rast u poslednjih 10 godina bio negde oko 5,5%.
I would like to see if you can all now become economists, because if growth for the last 10 years has been five and a half percent, what do you think the IMF is forecasting for the next five years of growth in Africa? Very good. I think you're secretly saying to your head, probably five and a half percent. You're all economists, and I think, like most economists, wrong. No offense.
Želeo bih da vidim ako svi vi sada možete da postanete ekonomisti. Ako je rast za poslednjih 10 godina bio na 5,5%, šta mislite da MMF predviđa za narednih pet godina rasta u Africi? Vrlo dobro. Mislim da sami sebi priznajete, verovatno 5,5%. Vi ste svi ekonomisti, i ja mislim kao većina ekonomista, niste u pravu. Bez uvrede.
What I like to do is try and find the countries that are doing exactly what Africa has already done, and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing to whoof, suddenly shooting through the roof. India is one of those examples. This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010. Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second. Actually, for the first 20 years, the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow. It grew at two percent when population growth was about two and a half. If that's familiar, that's exactly what happened in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s. And then something happened in 1980. Boom! India began to explode. It wasn't a "Hindu rate of growth," "democracies can't grow." Actually India could. And if I lay sub-Saharan growth on top of the Indian growth story, it's remarkably similar. Twenty years of not much growth and a trend line which is actually telling you that sub-Saharan African growth is slightly better than India. And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this, I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa, I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India, I can draw out some forecasts for the next 30 to 40 years which I think are better than the ones where you're looking backwards. And that tells me this: that Africa is going to go from a $2 trillion economy today to a $29 trillion economy by 2050. Now that's bigger than Europe and America put together in today's money. Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years. The population's going to double from one billion to two billion, so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold in the next 35 years. And when I present this in Africa -- Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question. "Charlie, why are you so pessimistic?"
Ono što želim da uradim je da pokušam da nađem zemlje koje rade isto što je Afrika već uradila, i to znači da preskoče 1800 godina ničega do odjednom neviđenog uspeha. Indija je jedan od tih primera. Ovo je indijski rast od 1960 do 2010. Zanemarite skalu na dnu za sekund. U stvari, za prvih 20 godina, '60-ih i '70-ih, Indija nije u stvari ostvarivala rast. Rast je bio 2% dok je rast stanovništva bio na 2,5%. Ukoliko vam je to poznato, to je ono što se desilo u podsaharskoj Africi '80-ih i '90-ih godina. I onda se nešto desilo 1980. Bum! Indija je eksplodirala. To nije bila "Hindu stopa rasta", "demokratije ne mogu da se razvijaju". Zapravo, Indija je mogla. I ako izložim podsaharski rast preko priče o indijskom razvoju, neverovatno je sličan. Dvadeset godina ne baš prevelikog rasta i trend koji vam zapravo govori da je podsaharski rast malo bolji od indijskog. I ako onda izložim azijski rast preko ovog, ja kažem da je Indija 20 godina ispred Afrike. kažem da je Azija u razvoju 10 godina ispred Indije. Mogu da dođem do nekih zaključaka za narednih 30 do 40 godina koji mislim da su bolji od onih gde se gleda unazad. I to mi govori sledeće: da će Afrika narasti od ekonomije od 2 biliona danas do ekonomije od 29 biliona do 2050. To je veća ekonomija od Evrope i Amerike zajedno u današnjim novcima. Životni vek će porasti za 13 godina. Stanovništvo će se udvostručiti od jedne milijarde na dve, tako da će prihodi domaćinstava da se usedmostruče u narednih 35 godina. I kad ovo prezentujem u Africi - Najrobi, Lagos, Akra - postave mi jedno pitanje: "Čarli, zašto si tako pesimističan?"
And you know what? Actually, I think they've got a point. Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned, yes from the positives in Asia and India, but also the negatives? Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made. Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here this last week, surely some of these can perhaps help Africa grow even faster? And I think here we can play a role. Because technology does let you help. You can go and download some of the great African literature from the Internet now. No, not right now, just 30 seconds. You can go and buy some of the great tunes. My iPod's full of them. Buy African products. Go on holiday and see for yourself the change that's happening. Invest. Perhaps hire people, give them the skills that they can take back to Africa, and their companies will grow an awful lot faster than most of ours here in the West. And then you and I can help make sure that for Africa, the 21st century is their century.
I znate šta? U stvari, mislim da su u pravu. Da li ja zaista kažem da ništa ne može da se nauči, od svega pozitivnog u Aziji i Indiji, ali isto tako svega negativnog? Možda Afrika može da izbegne neke od grešaka koje su već načinjene. Svakako, tehnologije o kojima pričamo ovde tokom protekle nedelje, svakako neke od njih verovatno mogu da pomognu Africi da raste i brže? I mislim da mi možemo da odigramo ulogu ovde. Zato što vam tehnologija zaista dozvoljava da pomognete. Možete ići i skinuti s interneta neke od najvećih dela afričke književnosti. Ne, baš sada, samo za 30 sekundi. Možete da kupite neku fantastičnu kompoziciju. Moj ajpod je ispunjen njima. Kupite afričke proizvode. Idite na odmor i upoznajte se sami sa promenama koje se dešavaju. Investirajte. Možda da zaposlite ljude, omogućite im da nauče veštine koje će oni poneti sa sobom nazad u Afriku, i njihove kompanije će rasti mnogo brže nego većina naših na Zapadu. I onda vi i ja možemo da učinimo da 21. vek bude vek Afrike.
Thank you very much.
Hvala vam mnogo.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)