America's public energy conversation boils down to this question: Would you rather die of A) oil wars, or B) climate change, or C) nuclear holocaust, or D) all of the above? Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above? That's the one we're not normally offered. What if we could make energy do our work without working our undoing? Could we have fuel without fear? Could we reinvent fire?
美国的公众能源的讨论 可以归结为这个问题 你比较倾向于哪种死法:A)石油战争 B) 气候变化 C) 核战浩劫 D) 以上所有 哦,我还忘了一个 E) 以上都不要? 正常情况下没有这个选项 如果我们可以利用能源,帮助我们工作 而又不会招致灭亡,将有多好? 我们能不能安心地使用燃料? 我们能不能重燃火源(Reinvent fire是艾默里·罗文斯的关于能源运用方式改造的新书)?
You see, fire made us human; fossil fuels made us modern. But now we need a new fire that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable. Let's see how.
大家知道,用火造就了人类 化石燃料引领我们变得现代化 但现在我们需要一种新的火 一种能让我们安全,有保障,健康而且可持续的火 让我们来看看要怎么做
Four-fifths of the world's energy still comes from burning each year four cubic miles of the rotted remains of primeval swamp goo. Those fossil fuels have built our civilization. They've created our wealth. They've enriched the lives of billions. But they also have rising costs to our security, economy, health and environment that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
世界能源的五分之四 仍然来自于每年燃烧 四平方英里原始沼泽 遗留的腐化物质 化石燃料 造就了我们的文明 创造了我们的财富 丰富了数十亿人的生活 但它们也在导致 我们安全、经济、健康和环境的成本上升 这些成本正逐渐侵蚀效益,虽然现在仍可能是利大于弊
So we need a new fire. And switching from the old fire to the new fire means changing two big stories about oil and electricity, each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air. But they're really quite distinct.
所以我们需要一种新的火 从旧的火转换为新的火 意味着两大改变:石油与电力 它们都会向空气排放五分之二的化石碳 但两者间显著差别
Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil -- although almost half is made from coal. Their uses are quite concentrated. Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation. Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings. And the rest of both runs factories. So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories save oil and coal, and also natural gas that can displace both of them.
只有不到1%的电力来自于石油能源 而将近一半的电力来自于燃煤 两者用途又都非常集中 四分之三的石油被用于交通运输 四分之三的电力被用于建筑物供电 两者的剩下部分被用于工厂运作 因此高效的车辆,建筑物与工厂 可以节省石油和煤 也能省下可以替代石油和煤的天然气
But today's energy system is not just inefficient, it is also disconnected, aging, dirty and insecure. So it needs refurbishment. By 2050 though, it could become efficient, connected and distributed with elegantly frugal autos, factories and buildings all relying on a modern, secure and resilient electricity system.
但是当今的能源系统不仅效率低下 而且零散 老旧,肮脏,还不安全 因此能源系统需要改头换面 到2050年,它会变得更有效率 更具系统,被妥善运用 因为简约节能的 汽车、工厂以及建筑物 都依赖于现代、安全 并且灵活的电力系统
We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050 and use one-third less natural gas while switching to efficient use and renewable supply. This could cost, by 2050, five trillion dollars less in net present value, that is expressed as a lump sum today, than business as usual -- assuming that carbon emissions and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero -- a conservatively low estimate. Yet this cheaper energy system could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy all without needing oil or coal, or for that matter nuclear energy. Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions and no acts of Congress and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws and running Washington gridlock.
到2050年,我们将不再依赖石油和煤 并减少三分之一的天然气使用量 与此同时我们将有效地使用能源 与可再生资源 到2050年,这一切开销 将比现在净价值少5万亿美元 这里是指总价 是与照常营运相比—— 假设碳排放 以及所有其他隐性或外部成本为零 这只是保守的估计 但是这个更低耗的能源系统 能够支持相当于现量158%的美国经济 完全不需要石油或煤 或是核能 此外,这个转变不需要新发明 也不需要国会的法令 不需要新的联邦税种,强制补助或立法 或是使美国政府陷入困境
Let me say that again. I'm going to tell you how to get the United States completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper with no act of Congress led by business for profit. In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions -- private enterprise co-evolving with civil society and sped by military innovation to go around our least effective institutions. And whether you care most about profits and jobs and competitive advantage or national security, or environmental stewardship and climate protection and public health, reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
让我重申一次 我将告诉你怎样让美国 完全摆脱石油或煤,减少5万亿美元的开销 而且不需要 以盈利组织为主导的国会制订新法 换句话说,我们将利用我们最有效的组织 民营企业 与公民社会共同进步 并通过军队改革,来加速这一进程 这样才能绕过最低效的机构 不论你最关心的是 利润、工作和竞争优势 还是国家安全、环境管理 还是气候保护和公众健康 重新发明能源使用方式,合理也有赚头
General Eisenhower reputedly said that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies. So in reinventing fire, we integrated all four sectors that use energy -- transportation, buildings, industry and electricity -- and we integrated four kinds of innovation, not just technology and policy, but also design and business strategy. Those combinations yield very much more than the sum of the parts, especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
据说艾森豪威尔将军曾说过 扩大一个难题的范围 就能涵盖更多的选择和协同作用,从而解决问题 因此在重新发明能源使用方式时 我们整合耗能的全部四个领域—— 交通,建筑,工业与电力—— 也整合了四种创新 不只是科技与政策 也包括设计和商业策略 这些组合产生的效益 远高于各项的总和 特别是合并后,将创造颠覆性的商业机遇
Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day, plus another four billion dollars a day in hidden economic and military costs, raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP. Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles. So let's start by making autos oil free. Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car is caused by its weight. And every unit of energy you save at the wheels, by taking out weight or drag, saves seven units in the tank, because you don't have to waste six units getting the energy to the wheels.
石油每天花去我们20亿美元 再加上另外的 隐性经济与军费开支花去的40亿美元 石油总消费超过GDP(国内生产总值)的六分之一 既然用于交通工具的燃料的五分之三都花在汽车上 让我们从汽车免费用油开始着手 驱动一辆普通汽车所需能源的三分之二 是由车子的重量贡献的 通过减轻车子重量或减少制动阻力 在这上面每节约的一单位能量 就能节约油箱中七单位的能量 因为你已不需要多浪费六单位能源 将能量传输到车轮上
Unfortunately, over the past quarter century, epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars gain weight twice as fast as we have. But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials, like carbon fiber composites, can make dramatic weight savings snowball and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build. Lighter and more slippery autos need less force to move them, so their engines get smaller. Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness then makes electric propulsion affordable because the batteries or fuel cells also get smaller and lighter and cheaper. So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today, while the driving cost, even from the start, is very much lower.
但不幸的是,在过去的25年中 肥胖问题的流行,让我们2吨的钢制车变得更重 而且增加的速度是以前的两倍 但在当今,超轻、超强度的材料 比如碳纤维复合材料 能让显著减轻车子重量 并使汽车的制造变得更简单,价格更便宜 车子越轻,开动阻力越小 驱动所需的动力就越少 引擎就能越小 实际上,车辆的这种轻便性 使得电力驱力变得实惠 因为电力电池或燃料电池 也会变得更小、更轻、更便宜 所以汽车的定价最终将回落到目前定价相近水平 而驾驶成本,甚至是从一开始开始算起 也低了很多
So these innovations together can transform automakers from wringing tiny savings out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies to the steeply falling costs of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other -- namely ultralight materials, making them into structures and electric propulsion. The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster with temporary feebates, that is rebates for efficient new autos paid for by fees on inefficient ones.
所以说这些创新组合在一起,就能让汽车制造商 使他们从在维多利亚时代的引擎与邮票印章技术上 钻营微小的节约 转到由三项紧密联系相互强化的创新 带来的成本的巨幅下降—— 也就是说运用超轻的材料,将它们用于建设 与电力驱动系统 通过实行短期的退税方案 就能增加销量,更快地降低价格 这种退税方,是针对高效能的新型汽车的退款 并由低效汽车的生产商给付
And just in the first two years the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency. The resulting shift to electric autos is going to be as game-changing as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers. Of course, computers and electronics are now America's biggest industry, while typewriter makers have vanished. So vehicle fitness opens a new automotive competitive strategy that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years, but then also make electrification affordable, and that displaces the rest of the oil.
而仅仅在最初的两年内 欧洲五个费用退还计划中最大的一个 就将汽车能源效率改进的速度提高了三倍 由此带来的向电动汽车的转变 将像由打字机向使用电脑的转变 一样改变游戏规则 不必多言,电脑与电子产品 是当今美国最大的产业 打字机制造商却已消失得无影无踪 因此交通工具的轻便性 启动了新型汽车业竞争战略 一种能够使未来40年内汽车省油率翻倍 同时让电动车变得平价 还能让电动车取代汽油车的战略
America could lead this next automotive revolution. Currently the leader is Germany. Last year, Volkswagen announced that by next year they'll be producing this carbon fiber plugin hybrid getting 230 miles a gallon. Also last year, BMW announced this carbon fiber electric car, they said that its carbon fiber is paid for by needing fewer batteries. And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker." Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
美国能够引领下一轮汽车业革命 当前起主导作用的是德国 去年,大众汽车宣布 今天他们将生产出 具备碳纤维插件的混合动力车 行驶230英里耗油1加仑(约合100公里/升) 同样在去年,宝马公司宣布生产 这种碳纤维电动车 他们宣称使用碳纤维的成本 可以由相应减少的电池需求来平衡 他们还说,“我们不想成为打字机制造商。” 奥迪公司宣称将用一年时间击败这两个对手
Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper American manufacturing technology was used to make this little carbon fiber test part, which doubles as a carbon cap. (Laughter) In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound how immensely stiff and strong it is. Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium. Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer without even scuffing it.
7年前,一种更快更低价的 美国式制造技术 被用于制造这个小小的碳纤维试用零件 使得碳排放上限翻了一番 (笑声) 在一分钟之内——你就能从听出 它有多么坚硬牢固 它掉到地上也没事,因为它比钛还要坚硬 汤姆弗里德曼曾拿大锤用尽全力敲它 它却毫发无损
But such manufacturing techniques can scale to automotive speed and cost with aerospace performance. They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos. They can save lives because this stuff can absorb up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel. If we made all of our autos this way, it would save oil equivalent to finding one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC, by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play. And all those mega-barrels under Detroit cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel. They are all-American, carbon-free and inexhaustible.
但这样的制造技术 如果能结合流体设计 就能影响汽车的速度和成本 它们能节省五分之四的汽车制造成本 它们能保障生命安全 因为它能吸收的撞击力 是每磅钢铁所能吸收的碰撞能(撞击产生的能量)的12倍 如果我们用这种方法制造所有的汽车 省下的石油相当于 找到一个半的沙特阿拉伯,或者半个OPEC(石油输出国家组织) 如果从底特律钻井开始着手,就很有可能成功 而所有那些底特律地下的蕴含的巨大油桶 每桶都要18美元 它们全为美国生产,属于无碳排放 取之不尽,用之不竭
The same physics and the same business logic also apply to big vehicles. In the five years ending with 2010, Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile in its giant fleet of heavy trucks through better logistics and design. But just the technological savings in heavy trucks can get to two-thirds. And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes, now on the drawing board, can save close to a trillion dollars.
同样的道理,同样的商业逻辑 也适用于大型车辆 2005到2010年 沃尔玛的大批重型卡车队 减少了60%的每英里耗油量 这归功于它们较好的物流和规划 但仅在重型卡车技术上的节约 就占了三分之二 如果我们结合三到五倍能源效率的飞机 正在被设计的飞机 就省下接近一万亿美元
Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency is going to speed up all of these civilian advances in much the same way that military R&D has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System and the jet engine and microchip industries. As we design and build vehicles better, we can also use them smarter by harnessing four powerful techniques for eliminating needless driving. Instead of just seeing the travel grow, we can use innovative pricing, charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
如今军队在能源效率上的改革 也将促进所有这些民用的技术的发展 就像是军方研发 给我们带来互联网、全球定位系统 喷气机引擎和微芯片产业 随着我们设计、制造更好的汽车 我们也能更聪明地使用它们 通过运用联合四种强力的技术 来减少驾驶时无谓的损耗 与其只看到出游时里程的增长 我们还能用创新的定价方式 按英里数给道路基建收费,而不是耗油量
We can use some smart IT to enhance transit and enable car sharing and ride sharing. We can allow smart and lucrative growth models that help people already be near where they want to be, so they don't need to go somewhere else. And we can use smart IT to make traffic free-flowing. Together, those things can give us the same or better access with 46 to 84 percent less driving, saving another 0.4 trillion dollars, plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
我们可以用一些巧妙的IT技术来优化这个过程 让拼车变得可行 我们可以用聪明且有利可图的增长模型 来帮助已经接近目标的人们 这样他们就不会走上歧路 而且我们可以用智慧的IT技术 保持交通顺畅 所有这些结合起来,能让我们更接近目标 省下46-84%的驾驶消耗 4千亿美元的开销 还有3亿美元,是通过有效使用卡车省下的成本
So 40 years hence, when you add it all up, a far more mobile U.S. economy can use no oil. Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks rather than buying them for over a hundred, adds up to a $4 trillion net saving counting all the hidden costs at zero.
把所有金额相加,我们将看到40年后 一个更灵动的美国汽车经济 将完全摆脱石油 每桶油能省下25美元 而不再花去一百多元钱 忽略隐性成本的话 净节约额将达到四万亿美元
So to get mobility without oil, to phase out the oil, we can get efficient and then switch fuels. Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells, electricity and advanced biofuels. The trucks and planes can realistically use hydrogen or advanced biofuels. The trucks could even use natural gas. But no vehicles will need oil. And the most biofuel we might need, just three million barrels a day, can be made two-thirds from waste without displacing any cropland and without harming soil or climate.
所以为了让交通业摆脱对石油的依赖 终结交通的石油时代 我们需要增加效率,并改变能耗方式 那些耗油量为每加仑125到240英里的汽车 可以混合使用氢燃料电池 电力电池和先进的生物燃料 卡车和飞机实际上可以用 氢燃料或生物燃料 卡车甚至可以用天然气 所有的交通工具都将摆脱对石油的依赖 而我们所需的 每天不会超过三百万桶的生物燃料 三分之二来自废物回收处理 它们不需要占用农田 对土壤和气候也无害
Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings by what we call "institutional acupuncture." We figure out where the business logic is congested and not flowing properly, we stick little needles in it to get it flowing, working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
我们的团队正在加速推行这些省油模式 我们叫它“体制针灸” 我们找到那些商业逻辑 拥堵不畅的地方 在这些地方插入细针帮助疏通 我们和福特汽车、沃尔玛和五角大楼等都有合作
And the long transition is already well under way. In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil, not in supply, but in demand. And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.
长期的转换过程已经开始 事实上,三年前,主流分析师已经注意到 石油峰值,不在供应面,而将在需求面出现 德意志银行甚至宣称全球石油使用量将在2016年达到顶峰
In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices before it becomes unavailable even at high prices. But the electrified vehicles don't need to burden the electricity grid. Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information through smart buildings with smart grids, they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage that help the grid integrate varying solar and wind power.
换句话说,在石油还没有贵到买不起时 它已经使去竞争力了 但是电动汽车 并不会对电网造成负担 当这些新型汽车通过装配有智能电网的建筑物 来交换电力和资讯时 它们为电网增加了宝贵的弹性和存储能力 从而帮助电网整合运用 不断变化的太阳能和风能
So the electrified autos make the auto and electricity problems easier to solve together than separately. And they also converge the oil story with our second big story, saving electricity and then making it differently. And those twin revolutions in electricity will bring to that sector more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions than any other sector, because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures. Changing how we make electricity gets easier if we need less of it. Most of it now is wasted and the technologies for saving it keep improving faster than we're installing them. So the unbought efficiency resource keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
所以这些电动汽车 整合并解决了交通和电力的问题 这样比分别处理更容易 电动汽车还整合了 石油和电力的使用模式 节省电力,并使它全面改观 再生能源和电动汽车的改革 为电力系统带来的改造 比它们对其它系统带来的影响 更多,更深远,更广泛 其原因在于,我们所拥有的二十一世纪的技术 和前两个世纪的制度、规章和文化格格不入 如果我们对电力的需求量降低了 改变用电方式,也将变得简单 现在大部分的电力是被浪费掉了 而节电技术的发展越来越快 甚至超过了我们启用它们的速度 所以还未被使用的高效资源 变得越来越多,越来越便宜
But as efficiency in buildings and industry starts to grow faster than the economy, America's electricity use could actually shrink, even with the little extra use required for those efficient electrified autos. And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
但是随着建筑物和工业的用电效率 提高得越来越快,超过经济增长速度 美国实际上会降低电力消耗 尽管高效的电动汽车 会带来一小部分额外的耗电 我们只要适当地推进当前进程,就可以达到这一步
Over the next 40 years, buildings, which use three-quarters of the electricity, can triple or quadruple their energy productivity, saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value, with a 33 percent internal rate of return or in English, the savings are worth four times what they cost. And industry can accelerate too, doubling its energy productivity with a 21 percent internal rate of return. The key is a disruptive innovation that we call integrative design that often makes very big energy savings cost less than small or no savings. That is, it can give you expanding returns, not diminishing returns.
四十年后 消耗四分之三总电能的建筑物 会将能源生产力提高三到四倍 省下1.4万亿美元的净现值 还有33%的内部收益率 换句话说 省下来的部分相当于成本的四倍 工业也将加速发展 它的能源生产力将提高两倍 还有21%的内部收益率 关键就在于颠覆性创新 我们叫它整合设计 它通常能够带来巨大的节约 而耗费的成本很小,甚至为零 也就是说,它将带来递增的报酬 而非递减的报酬
That is how our 2010 retrofit is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building -- remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat. plus better lights and office equipment and such cut the maximum cooling load by a third. And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones saved 17 million dollars of capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements and reduce the payback to just three years. Integrative design can also increase energy savings in industry. Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment has already returned nine billion dollars.
沿着这个思路,我们在2010年 把帝国大厦的6500扇窗户 换成透光、反射热能的超级玻璃 由此省下帝国大厦超过五分之二能耗 配合更好的照明和办公设备 这项举动使冷却系统的最大负荷量减少了三分之一 我们翻新小型冷却机,而不添置大型冷却机 这也省下了1700万的资本成本 节省下来的成本得以被用于改进其它部门 同时,投资回收期被减少到三年 整合设计也可以帮助 工业节约能源 道琼斯指数的十亿美元提高能率的投资 已经得到了九十亿美元的回报
But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars of energy still to save. For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors. Half of that runs pumps and fans. And those can all be made more efficient, and the motors that turn them can have their system efficiency roughly doubled by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
但是工业作为一个整体 还需要省下五千亿美元的能源 比如说,世界上五分之三的电力被用于驱动马达 其中的一半被用在泵和风扇上 它们都可以变得更有效率 通过整合35个改造项目 就可以使它们的驱动马达,系统效率提高两倍 而且投资回收期仅为一年
But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks. For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors, move liquid through pipes. But a standard industrial pumping loop was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy, not by getting better pumps, but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes with fat, short, straight pipes. This is not about new technology, it's just rearranging our metal furniture. Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment and its capital costs.
但是我们首先必须省下那些更大宗的、更便宜的 经常被忽略,连教科书也不提及的节能项目 比如说,泵,使用发动机能量最多的一部分 推动液体通过管道 但是标准的工业抽水循环 经过重新设计,可以省下至少86%的能量 不需要添置新泵 只需把细薄的弯管 换成粗短的直管 这并不是使用新技术 只是重新安排金属设备 当然,这减少了泵的使用量 也减少了资本成本
So what do such savings mean for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors? Well, from the coal burned at the power plant through all these compounding losses, only a tenth of the fuel energy actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow. But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards, and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding" back at the power plant. And of course, as you go back upstream, the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
那么,这对于被马达耗去五分之三能源的电力来说 意味着什么? 从燃烧煤炭的发电厂 到所有这些化合物耗损 只有十分之一的化石能源 最后通过管道供给终端使用 现在让我们逆转化合物耗损的趋势 在管道中省下的每一单位能量 就能省下十个单位的燃料成本、污染 和亨特·罗文斯所说的“全球气候异常” 能量最终能回归到发电厂 当然,如果回溯到上游工业 化合物会更小,也会更便宜
Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns -- everything from data centers and chip fabs to mines and refineries. Typically our retrofit designs save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy and pay back in a few years, while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent with generally lower capital cost.
我们的团队最近发现这样滚雪球式的节能方式 可以被运用在超过300亿的工业重新设计中—— 从数据中心,到芯片制造 到矿井和炼油厂,都适用 尤其是我们的改进设计 可以省下30-60%的能源 几年内就能得到投资回报 设计新设备也将省下四成到九成多的能源 一般也能降低资本成本
Now needing less electricity would ease and speed the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables. China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost. In fact, these solar power module costs have just fallen off the bottom of the chart. And Germany now has more solar workers than America has steel workers. Already in about 20 states private installers will come put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down and beat your utility bill. Such unregulated products could ultimately add up to a virtual utility that bypasses your electric company just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company. And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.
减少对电力的需求 就可以让向新能源,也就是再生能源的转换 变得更容易一些,更快一些 中国在这方面发展迅猛,成本也暴跌 实际上,这些太阳能发电板的成本 已经低得不能再低了 在德国,从事太阳能产业的人员数量 和美国从事钢铁业的人一样多 大致在20个州里 已经有私营厂商 可以把便宜的太阳能板安装在你家屋顶上,还能免费拆除 轻松省下大笔水电费 这些未经调控的产业 最终可以成为一种虚拟公共事业 能越过电力公司 就像你可以越过家里的有线电话公司,使用手机 它会让公共事业工作人员烦躁不已 它还是风险投资家的美梦
Renewables are no longer a fringe activity. For each of the past four years half of the world's new generating capacity has been renewable, mainly lately in developing countries. In 2010, renewables other than big hydro, particularly wind and solar cells, got 151 billion dollars of private investment, and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity of nuclear power in the world by adding 60 billion watts in that one year. That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity that the world can now make every year -- a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year. In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity and the orders behind those keep fading because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk. In fact in this country, no new nuclear power plant has been able to raise any private construction capital, despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.
可再生能源不再是一个锦上添花的产业 在过去四年间的每一年 全世界发电量的一半 是可再生能源 近年来主要分布在发展中国家 在2010年,除了水力、风力和太阳能以外的 可再生能源 接受了高达1510亿的私人投资 它们实际上已经超过了 全球核电站装机容量的总和 每年产量比核电站多600亿瓦特 太阳能电板装机容量也是如此 全世界每年产量 可以增加60-70% 相反地,核电站、燃煤电厂和其它项目的净增量 在不断减少 因为它们成本太高,带来的金融风险也高 事实上在美国 已经没有新的核电站 可以吸引来自私人的建设投资 尽管在七年间,政府每年都投入翻倍的补助款
So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants? Well efficiency and gas can displace them all at just below their operating cost and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times at less than their replacement cost. But we only need to replace them once. We're often told though that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on, because they're 24/7, whereas wind and solar power are variable, and hence supposedly unreliable.
所以,我们还可以用什么来取代这些燃煤电厂呢? 高效的发电方式和天然气可以完全取代燃煤 成本比燃煤的运作成本还低 如果和可再生能源结合起来,还可以取代燃煤方式23次 所耗费用还不及它们的重置成本 但只需要取代一次就够了 常常有人对我们说 只有燃煤和核能才能稳定供电 因为它们是全天候的 而风能和太阳能变幻多端 所以有人认为它们不可靠
Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break. And when a big plant goes down, you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds, often for weeks or months, often without warning. That is exactly why we've designed the grid to back up failed plants with working plants. And in exactly the same way, the grid can handle wind and solar power's forecastable variations.
实际上没有发电机全天候工作,它们也需要休息 当一个发电厂停止运转 每毫秒就会损失一千兆瓦的发电力 一旦发生,就常常是几周几个月,而且毫无征兆 这就是我们为什么要设计出电网 用正常工作的电站来顶替暂停运转的电站 同样地 电网可以克服风能和太阳能的 可预测的变化
Hourly simulations show that largely or wholly renewable grids can deliver highly reliable power when they're forecasted, integrated and diversified by both type and location. And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid. That is how, for example, four German states in 2010 were 43 to 52 percent wind powered. Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered, Denmark 36. And it's how all of Europe can shift to renewable electricity. In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system has to be replaced anyway by 2050. And whatever we replace it with is going to cost about the same, about six trillion dollars at present value -- whether we buy more of what we've got or new nuclear and so-called clean coal, or renewables that are more or less centralized.
每小时的模拟显示 大部分或全部的可再生能源电网 可以输送非常稳定的电力 只要对风能和太阳能 根据种类和位置 进行预测、整合和多元化处理 这对美国或欧洲这样的大陆地区 和被大型电网覆盖的较小地区都适用 这就是,比如说 在2010年,德国的四个州 实现由风力供应43-52%能源的做法 葡萄牙实现了45%能源由风能供应 而丹麦是36% 这就是全欧洲国家 向可再生能源转型的做法 在美国,我们老化、肮脏、不可靠的能源系统 不论如何都需要在2050年前被取代 而且不论我们用什么来取代它 花费都会和现在差不多 大约六万亿美元的净现值—— 不论我们会不会购买更多的现有资源 建现多的核电厂,使用所谓的洁净煤技术 或是现在或多或少已经被集中处理的可再生能源
But those four futures at the same cost differ profoundly in their risks, around national security, fuel, water, finance, technology, climate and health. For example, our over-centralized grid is very vulnerable to cascading and potentially economy-shattering blackouts caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters or a terrorist attack. But that blackout risk disappears, and all of the other risks are best managed, with distributed renewables organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect, but can stand alone at need. That is, they can disconnect fractally and then reconnect seamlessly.
但是这四种未来的选择成本相近 风险却很不一样 不论是事关国家安全 燃料,水,金融,技术,气候和健康 风险都有显著差别 比如说,过于集中化的电网 完全经不起级联型的 和可能粉碎经济体的运作中断 恶劣天气,其它自然灾害 或是恐怖袭击造成的中断都能摧毁它 但停电危机将不复存在 其它危机也能被妥善控制 只要我们将可再生能源 分配并组织成相互连结的区域性微电网 需要时,它们也能独立工作 也就是说,它们能互相分离独立 也能重新建立无缝的联接
That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting for its own power supply. They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending? We want our stuff to work too. At about the same cost as business as usual, this would maximize national security, customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity and innovation.
这就是五角大楼控制 它自己内部控电的方法 他们认为这很有必要。那么受他们保护的我们呢? 我们也希望我们的供电系统也能这样运转 这种方式的运营成本和其它方式一样 却能最大程度地保障国家安全 为顾客提供最多的选择,给投资家最多的机会 实现最大的革新
Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply are starting to transform the whole electricity sector. Traditionally utilities build a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants and a bunch of big gas plants and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables. And those utilities were rewarded, as they still are in 34 states, for selling you more electricity. However, especially where regulators are now instead rewarding cutting your bills, the investments are shifting radically toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration, renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably with less transmission and little or no bulk electricity storage.
总的来说,高效的使用方式和多元化的供应方式 正在改变整个电力供应系统 传统的公共事业 建造了许多大型燃煤电厂,核电站 一些天然气电厂 可能还有一些高效可再生能源电厂 在34个州 这些公共设施 仍然因为能供应更多电力受到奖赏 但正是在这些管理者 鼓励减少耗能的地方 投资正在急剧转向新的方面 这包括高效使用,需求响应,汽电共生 可再生能源 和耗费较少传输成本 和较少电力储存的整合串联方法
So our energy future is not fate, but choice, and that choice is very flexible. In 1976, for example, government and industry insisted that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP could never go down. And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold. Well that's what's actually happened so far. It's fallen by half. But with today's much better technologies, more mature delivery channels and integrative design, we can do far more and even cheaper.
所以能源的未来,不是取决于命运 而是取决于我们的选择,很有弹性的选择 比如说,在1976年 政府和工业坚持 要求花费在每一美元国内生产总值的能源量 不能降低 当时我却偏要提议,它可以降低七倍 事实正是如此 耗能量减半了。 但是配合当今的高科技 更成熟的传输渠道和整合设计 我们可以更大程度地降低耗能和成本
So to solve the energy problem, we just needed to enlarge it. And the results may at first seem incredible, but as Marshall McLuhan said, "Only puny secrets need protection. Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity." Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions, both driven by modern efficiency, and you get the really big story: reinventing fire, where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050, saving 5 trillion dollars, growing the economy 2.6-fold, strengthening out national security, oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal, reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.
所以想要解决能源问题 我们只要把问题扩大 也许一开始结果显得让人难以置信 但正如马歇尔·麦克卢恩所说 “只有微不足道的秘密需要保护 伟大的发现自会受到公众的质疑” 结合现代效率驱动的 电力和石油革命 就会找到关键:重燃火源 当明智的政策孵育并加速商业发展 就能引领美国在2050年完全摆脱石油和燃煤 省下5万亿美元的开销 实现2.6倍的经济发展 强化国家安全 哦,随便提一下,摆脱石油和燃煤 还能减少82-86%的碳排放
Now if you like any of those outcomes, you can support reinventing fire without needing to like all of them and without needing to agree about which of them is most important. So focusing on outcomes, not motives, can turn gridlock and conflict into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge. This also turns out to be the best way to cope with global challenges -- climate change, nuclear proliferation, energy insecurity, energy poverty -- all of which make us less safe.
如果你支持其中任何一项 你可以支持重燃火源的行动 而不需要对每一项都有好感 不需要认定哪一项最为重要 关注结果,而并动机 可以把困境和冲突转化为 化解美国能源危机的统一方案 这也将是解决全球危机的 最佳答案—— 气候变化,核扩散 能源危机,能源短缺—— 所有这些都是不安定因素
Now our team at RMI helps smart companies to get unstuck and speed this journey via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching. Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too. Former oil man Maurice Strong said, "Not all the fossils are in the fuel." But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us, "Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."
现在我们的RMI团队正在帮助明智的公司 摆脱困境,加速转换进程 我们启动了六个方面的计划,正在筹划其它方面的动作 当然外界还有许多传统观念 前石油大亨莫里斯.斯特朗说 “不是所有的化石都变成了石油。” 但是杜邦公司前总裁埃德加·伍拉德提醒我们 “被传统观念阻碍的公司不会是问题” “因为它们不会长久”
I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization business opportunity, but one of the most profound transitions in the history of our species. We humans are inventing a new fire, not dug from below, but flowing from above; not scarce, but bountiful; not local, but everywhere; not transient, but permanent; not costly, but free. And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure, this new fire is flameless. Efficiently used, it really can do our work without working our undoing.
我所描述的并不只是 一个文明只有一次的商业契机 还是人类文明最重要的 转变之一 人类正在发明一种新的火 并不从地下深挖 却从地表上获得 并不稀缺,却很丰富 并不局限在一处,却四处可是 并不短暂,却能持久 并不昂贵,却是免费的 而且和已经快用完的天然气不同 和以各种形式持续产生的生物能源不同 这种新火不需要燃烧 如果能高效地使用它 它可以帮助人类发展,而不致人类毁灭
Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize. And our new book "Reinventing Fire" describes how you can capture it. So with the conversation just begun at ReinventingFire.com, let me invite you each to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you, to help make the world richer, fairer, cooler and safer by together reinventing fire.
每个人都将享有那5万亿美元成果的一部分 我们的新书《重燃火源》 就告诉你将如何取得这成果 当讨论刚刚开始 以 ReinventingFire.com 作为平台 我想邀请在座各位 和我们,和在座各位,和各位身边的每个人 一起努力让世界更富饶,更公平 更凉爽,更安全 只要我们一起重燃火源
Thank you.
谢谢
(Applause)
(掌声)