This is about a hidden corner of the labor market. It's the world of people who need to work ultra-flexibly, if they're to work at all. So think, for instance, of someone who has a recurring but unpredictable medical condition, or somebody who's caring for a dependent adult, or a parent with complex child care needs. Their availability for work can be such that it's, "A few hours today. Maybe I can work tomorrow, but I don't know if and when yet." And it's extraordinarily difficult for these people to find the work that they so often need very badly. Which is a tragedy because there are employers who can use pools of very flexible local people booked completely ad hoc around when that person wants to work.
Ovde se radi o skrivenom delu tržišta rada. To je čitav jedan svet ljudi kojima je potrebno veoma fleksibilno radno vreme, kako bi uopšte mogli da rade. Zamislite, na primer, nekoga ko ima ponavljajuće i nepredvidivo medicinsko stanje ili nekoga ko se stara o odraslom licu kome je neophodna nega ili roditelja sa složenim potrebama u vezi sa brigom o deci. Njihova dostupnost za posao je otprilike: "Nekoliko sati danas. Možda i sutra, ali još uvek ne znam da li uopšte, niti znam kada." Ovim ljudima je izuzetno teško da pronađu posao koji im često veoma treba. To je tragedija, zato što postoje poslodavci koji mogu da upotrebe više fleksibilnih ljudi iz blizine, angažovanih po potrebi u vreme kada ta osoba želi da radi.
Imagine that you run a cafe. It's mid-morning, the place is filling up. You're going to have a busy lunchtime rush. If you could get two extra workers for 90 minutes to start in an hour's time, you'd do it, but they'd have to be reliable, inducted in how your cafe works. They'd have to be available at very competitive rates. They'd have to be bookable in about the next minute. In reality, no recruitment agency wants to handle that sort of business, so you are going to muddle by, understaffed. And it's not just caterers, it's hoteliers, it's retailers, it's anyone who provides services to the public or businesses. There's all sorts of organizations that can use these pools of very flexible people, possibly already once they've been inducted.
Zamislite da vodite kafe. Prepodne je, mesto se popunjava. Izgleda kao da će biti gužva za ručak. Ako biste mogli da angažujete dvoje dodatnih radnika na 90 minuta koji bi počeli da rade u sledećih sat vremena, mogli biste sve da uslužite, ali oni moraju biti pouzadni i sa znanjem kako vaš kafe radi. Morali bi biti dostupni po konkurentnim cenama. Morali bi biti angažovani za otprilike minut. U realnosti, nijedna agencija za zapošljavanje ne želi da se bavi ovakvim poslom, tako da vam ostaje da se snalazite sa manjkom osoblja. I ne radi se samo o konobarima, radi se o hotelijerima, prodavcima, bilo kome ko pruža usluge javnosti ili firmama. Postoje razne organizacije kojima mogu biti od koristi grupe lokalnih fleksibilnih ljudi, po mogućnosti sa prethodnim znanjem o poslu.
At this level of the labor market, what you need is a marketplace for spare hours. They do exist. Here's how they work. So in this example, a distribution company has said, we've got a rush order that we've got to get out of the warehouse tomorrow morning. Show us everyone who's available. It's found 31 workers. Everybody on this screen is genuinely available at those specific hours tomorrow. They're all contactable in time for this booking. They've all defined the terms on which they will accept bookings. And this booking is within all the parameters for each individual. And they would all be legally compliant by doing this booking. Of course, they're all trained to work in warehouses. You can select as many of them as you want. They're from multiple agencies. It's calculated the charge rate for each person for this specific booking. And it's monitoring their reliability. The people on the top row are the provenly reliable ones. They're likely to be more expensive. In an alternative view of this pool of local, very flexible people, here's a market research company, and it's inducted maybe 25 local people in how to do street interviewing. And they've got a new campaign. They want to run it next week. And they're looking at how many of the people they've inducted are available each hour next week. And they'll then decide when to do their street interviews.
Na ovom nivou tržišta rada, ono što je potreno je tržište za višak sati. Ono već postoji i evo kako to sve radi. Dakle, u ovom primeru, firma za distribuciju je rekla: imamo hitnu narudžbinu koju moramo da otpremimo iz skladišta sutra ujutro. Pokaži nam sve koji su dostupni. Pronađen je 31 radnik. Svako na ovom monitoru je zaista dostupan u tačno traženo vreme sutra. Sa svima se može sklopiti ugovor na vreme. Svako od njih je definisao uslove pod kojima će prihvatiti ugovor. I ovaj ugovor je u okviru parametara za svaku osobu pojedinačno. I svi su pravno u obavezi da poštuju ovaj ugovor. Naravno, svi su oni obučeni za rad u skladištu. Možete odabrati koliko god ih želite. Oni su iz raznih agencija. Izračunata je naknada za svaku osobu za ovaj konkretan ugovor. I prati se njihova pouzdanost. Ljdi iz gornjeg reda su dokazano pouzdani. Verovatno će oni biti skuplji. Kao alternativa, pogledajte ovu grupu lokalnih, fleksibilnih ljudi, evo je agencija za istraživanje tržišta i ona je obučila možda 25 lokalnih ljudi za poslove uličnog ispitivanja. Oni imaju novu kampanju koju žele da pokrenu sledeće nedelje. Onda oni traže koliko od tih obučenih ljudi je dostupno za svaki sat sledeće nedelje. Tada će odlučiti kada da sprovedu ulično istraživanje.
But is there more that could be done for this corner of the labor market? Because right now there are so many people who need whatever economic opportunity they can get. Let's make it personal. Imagine that a young woman -- base of the economic pyramid, very little prospect of getting a job -- what economic activity could she theoretically engage in? Well, she might be willing to work odd hours in a call center, in a reception area, in a mail room. She may be interested in providing local services to her community: babysitting, local deliveries, pet care. She may have possessions that she would like to trade at times she doesn't need them. So she might have a sofa bed in her front room that she would like to let out. She might have a bike, a video games console she only uses occasionally. And you're probably thinking -- because you're all very web-aware -- yes, and we're in the era of collaborative consumption, so she can go online and do all this. She can go to Airbnb to list her sofa bed, she can go to TaskRabbit.com and say, "I want to do local deliveries," and so on.
Ali ima li još nečega što može biti urađeno za ovaj deo tržišta rada? Jer upravo sada, postoji toliko puno ljudi kojima je potrebna bilo kakva ekonomska prilika. Učinimo ovo ličnim. Zaislite mladu ženu - na dnu ekonomske piramide, sa jako malim mogućnostima za dobijanje posla - u kakvu bi se ekonomsku aktivnost ona uopšte mogla uključiti? Pa, mogla bi da radi u nezgodnim satima u kol centru, na recepciji, na pošti. Može biti zainteresovana da pruža lokalne usluge u zajednici: bebisiting, lokalne dostave, briga o kućnim ljubimcima. Možda ima u posedu nešto sa čim bi mogla da trguje u vreme u koje joj to nije potrebno. Možda ima kauč u pomoćnoj sobi koji može da iznajmi, možda ima bicikl, konzolu za video igre koju koristi povremeno, i sada verovatno razmišljate - zato što ste svi veoma svesni postojanja interneta - da, svi smo mi u eri zajedničke potrošnje, pa ona može da ode onlajn i uradi sve ovo. Može otići na Airbnb da ponudi svoj kauč, može otići na TaskRabbit.com i reći: "Želim da se bavim lokalnim dostavama" i tako dalje.
These are good sites, but I believe we can go a step further. And the key to that is a philosophy that we call modern markets for all. Markets have changed beyond recognition in the last 20 years, but only for organizations at the top of the economy. If you're a Wall Street trader, you now take it for granted that you sell your financial assets in a system of markets that identifies the most profitable opportunities for you in real time, executes on that in microseconds within the boundaries you've set. It analyzes supply and demand and pricing and tells you where your next wave of opportunities are coming from. It manages counterparty risk in incredibly sophisticated ways. It's all extremely low overhead. What have we gained at the bottom of the economy in terms of markets in the last 20 years? Basically classified adverts with a search facility.
Ovo su dobri sajtovi, ali ja verujem da možemo ići i korak dalje. Ključ za ovo je filozofija koju nazivamo Moderno tržište za svakoga. Tržišta su se promenila preko granice prepoznavanja u poslednjih 20 godina, ali samo za organizacije koje su na vrhu ekonomije. Ako ste broker na Vol stritu, vama je normalno da prodajete finansijska dobra u sistemu tržišta koji u realnom vremenu identifikuje najprofitabilnije mogućnosti i vršite prodaju u roku od milisekunde u okvirima koje ste zadali. Sistem analizira ponude i potražnje i cene i govori vam iz kog pravca vam dolazi sledeći talas mogućnosti. Određuje rizik saradnika na neverovatno sofisticirane načine. Ima ekstremno male troškove održavanja. Šta smo dobili na dnu ekonomije u tržišnim terminima tokom poslednjih 20 godina? U suštini, klasifikovane oglase sa uređajem za pretraživanje.
So why do we have this disparity between these incredibly sophisticated markets at the top of the economy that are increasingly sucking more and more activity and resource out of the main economy into this rarefied level of trading, and what the rest of us have? A modern market is more than a website; it's a web of interoperable marketplaces, back office mechanisms, regulatory regimes, settlement mechanisms, liquidity sources and so on. And when a Wall Street trader comes into work in the morning, she does not write a listing for every financial derivative she wants to sell today and then post that listing on multiple websites and wait for potential buyers to get in touch and start negotiating the terms on which she might trade.
Dakle, zašto postoji ova nejednakost između neverovatno profinjenih tržišta na vrhu ekonomije koja sve više usisavaju aktivnosti i resurse iz glavne ekonomije u ovaj malecni nivo trgovine i onoga što imamo mi ostali? Savremeno tržište je više od veb sajta; to je mreža međuzavisnih "pijaca", mehanizama za podršku i regulatornih sistema, mehanizama za poravnanje, izvora likvidnosti i tako dalje. Kada broker na Vol stritu ujutru dođe na posao, ne piše listing o svakom finansijskom proizvodu koji danas želi da proda i onda to postuje na više sajtova i čeka moguće kupce da je kontaktiraju započinjući pregovore o trgovini.
In the early days of this modern markets technology, the financial institutions worked out how they could leverage their buying power, their back office processes, their relationships, their networks to shape these new markets that would create all this new activity. They asked governments for supporting regulatory regimes, and in a lot of cases they got it.
U ranim danima savremene tržišne tehnologije, finansijske institucije su usavršile kako mogu da osnaže sopstvenu kupovnu moć, sopstvene mehanizme podrške, sopstvene odnose i mreže da bi oblikovali nova tržišta koja će stvoriti novu aktivnost. Tražili su od vlasti regulatorne sisteme podrške i u velikom broju slučajeva, dobili su ih.
But throughout the economy, there are facilities that could likewise leverage a new generation of markets for the benefit of all of us. And those facilities -- I'm talking about things like the mechanisms that prove our identity, the licensing authorities that know what each of us is allowed to do legally at any given time, the processes by which we resolve disputes through official channels. These mechanisms, these facilities are not in the gift of Craigslist or Gumtree or Yahoo, they're controlled by the state. And the policymakers who sit on top of them are, I suggest, simply not thinking about how those facilities could be used to underpin a whole new era of markets.
Ali, imajući na umu celokupnu ekonomiju, postoje okolnosti koje na sličan način mogu osnažiti nove generacije tržišta na opštu dobrobit. I te okolnosti - govorim o stvarima kao što su mehanizmi koji dokazuju naš identitet, organi za licenciranje koji znaju šta je svako od nas pravno ovlašćen da radi u bilo koje dato vreme, procesi kojima razrešavamo sporove kroz zvanične kanale. Ovi mehanizmi, ove okolnosti nisu samo blagodeti sa Craigslista ili Gumtree-ja ili Yahoo-a, oni su kontrolisani od strane države. I oni koji prave propise, kako mi se čini, nisu razmišljali o tome kako te nove okolnosti mogu biti upotrebljene da podupru čitavu jednu novu eru tržišta.
Like everyone else, those policymakers are taking it for granted that modern markets are the preserve of organizations powerful enough to create them for themselves. Suppose we stopped taking that for granted. Suppose tomorrow morning the prime minister of Britain or the president of the U.S., or the leader of any other developed nation, woke up and said, "I'm never going to be able to create all the jobs I need in the current climate. I have got to focus on whatever economic opportunity I can get to my citizens. And for that they have to be able to access state-of-the-art markets. How do I make that happen?"
Kao i svi ostali, ti ljudi koji prave propise uzimaju zdravo za gotovo da moderna tržišta služe da održe organizacije dovoljno jakim da ih stvore za sebe. Pretpostavimo da više ne uzimamo ovo zdravo za gotovo. Pretpostavimo da se sutra ujutru premijer Britanije ili predsednik Sjedinjenih Država ili vođa bilo koje druge razvijene nacije probudi i kaže: "Nikada neću biti u stanju da stvorim sve poslove koji su neophodni u trenutnoj situaciji. Moram da se fokusiram na bilo koju ekonomsku mogućnost koju mogu da pružim građanima. I zbog toga oni moraju imati pristup najmodernijim tržištima. Kako to da učinim?"
And I think I can see a few eyes rolling. Politicians in a big, complex, sophisticated I.T. project? Oh, that's going to be a disaster waiting to happen. Not necessarily. There is a precedent for technology-enabled service that has been initiated by politicians in multiple countries and has been hugely successful: national lotteries.
Čini mi se da vidim kako neki od vas prevrću očima. Političari i veliki kompleksni prefinjeni IT projekti? To je katastrofa koja će se neminovno desiti. Ne obavezno. Postoje presedani za tehnološki-omogućene servise koje su političari inicirali u više zemalja i koji su bili veoma uspešni: nacionalne lutrije.
Let's take Britain as an example. Our government didn't design the national lottery, it didn't fund the national lottery, it doesn't operate the national lottery. It simply passed the National Lottery Act and this is what followed. This act defines what a national lottery will look like. It specifies certain benefits that the state can uniquely bestow on the operators. And it puts some obligations on those operators. In terms of spreading gambling activity to the masses, this was an unqualified success.
Uzmimo Britaniju kao primer. Naša vlada nije dizajnirala nacionalnu lutriju, nije je finansirala niti upravljala njome. Jednostavno je donela Zakon o Nacionalnoj lutriji i evo šta je sledilo. Ovaj zakon definiše kako Nacionalna lutrija izgleda. On precizira određene beneficije koje država jedinstveno može da dodeli operaterima. I takođe daje neke obaveze tim operaterima. U okvirima proširivanja kockanja na mase, ovo je bio nezabeležen uspeh.
But let's suppose that our aim is to bring new economic activity to the base of the pyramid. Could we use the same model? I believe we could. So imagine that policymakers outlined a facility. Let's call it national e-markets, NEMs for short. Think of it as a regulated public utility. So it's on a par with the water supply or the road network. And it's a series of markets for low-level trade that can be fulfilled by a person or a small company. And government has certain benefits it can uniquely bestow on these markets. It's about public spending going through these markets to buy public services at the local level. It's about interfacing these markets direct into the highest official channels in the land. It's about enshrining government's role as a publicist for these markets. It's about deregulating some sectors so that local people can enter them.
Pretpostavimo da je naš cilj da donesemo novu ekonomsku aktivnost na dno piramide. Možemo li koristiti isti model? Verujem da možemo. Zamislimo da su ljudi koji prave propise napravili konture mehanizma. Nazovimo ga nacionalno e-tržište, skraćeno NET. Zamislite to kao regulisan javni servis. U tom smislu je slično vodovodu ili mreži puteva. U pitanju je niz tržišta za jednostavne poslove koje mogu izvršiti osobe ili male firme. Vlada ima određene beneficije koje može jedinstveno dodeliti tim tržištima. Radi se o javnoj potrošnji koja ide kroz ova tržišta da bi se kupile javne usluge na lokalnom nivou. Radi se o povezivanju ovih tržišta direktno sa najvišim zvaničnim kanalima u zemlji. Radi se o zatvaranju uloge vlasti kao izdavača za ova tržišta. Radi se deregulaciji nekih sektora kako bi lokalni ljudi mogli da uđu u njih.
So, taxi journeys might be one example. And there are certain obligations that should go with those benefits to be placed on the operators, and the key one is, of course, that the operators pay for everything, including all the interfacing into the public sector. So imagine that the operators make their return by building a percentage markup into each transaction. Imagine that there's a concession period defined of maybe 15 years in which they can take all these benefits and run with them. And imagine that the consortia who bid to run it are told, whoever comes in at the lowest percentage markup on each transaction to fund the whole thing will get the deal.
Vožnja taksijem može biti jedan primer. Postoje određene obaveze koje idu uz beneficije koje se moraju postaviti operaterima i ključna je, naravno, da operateri plaćaju za sve, uključujući sva povezivanja sa javnim sektorom. Zamislite da operateri prave svoj profit preko procenta na svaku transakciju. Zamislite da postoji period koncesije na recimo 15 godina u okviru kog oni mogu koristiti dobijene beneficije i voditi posao sa njima. I zamislite da je konzorcijumima koji se nadmeću za posao rečeno, ko god ponudi najmanji procenat na svaku transakciju i zauzvrat ponudi da finansira celu stvar dobija posao.
So government then exits the frame. This is now in the hands of the consortium. Either they are going to unlock an awful lot of economic opportunity and make a percentage on all of it or it's all going to crash and burn, which is tough on their shareholders. It doesn't bother the taxpayer necessarily. And there would be no constraints on alternative markets. So this would just be one more choice among millions of Internet forums. But it could be very different, because having access to those state-backed facilities could incentivize this consortium to seriously invest in the service. Because they would have to get a lot of these small transactions going to start making their return.
I tada vlada izlazi iz okvira. Stvar je sada u rukama konzorcijuma. Ili će otključati jako puno ekonomskih mogućnosti i uzeti procenat od svega ili će propasti, što će njihovi deoničari teško primiti. Ovo ne mora obavezno biti o trošku poreskih obaveznika. I ne bi trebalo biti ograničenja na alternativna tržišta. Tako bi ovo bio samo jedan od izbora među milionima internet foruma. Ali ovaj može biti dosta drugačiji, jer imanje pristupa onim mehanizmima podrške od strane države može motivisati konzorcijum da ozbiljno investira u servis. Jer oni bi trebalo da naprave puno malih transakcija da bi napravili sopstveni profit.
So we're talking about sectors like home hair care, the hire of toys, farm work, hire of clothes even, meals delivered to your door, services for tourists, home care. This would be a world of very small trades, but very well-informed, because national e-markets will deliver data.
Dakle, pričamo o sektorima kao što su kućne frizerske usluge, iznajmljivanje igračaka, poslovi na polju, čak i iznajmljivanje odeće, obroci koji se dostavljaju na vrata, usluge turistima, nega u kući. Ovo je svet malih poslova, ali veoma dobro obaveštenih, jer će nacionalna e-tržišta pružati podatke.
So this is a local person potentially deciding whether to enter the babysitting market. And they might be aware that they would have to fund vetting and training if they wanted to go into that market. They'd have to do assessment interviews with local parents who wanted a pool of babysitters. Is it worth their while? Should they be looking at other sectors? Should they be moving to another part of the country where there's a shortage of babysitters? This kind of data can become routine. And this data can be used by investors. So if there's a problem with a shortage of babysitters in some parts of the country and the problem is nobody can afford the vetting and training, an investor can pay for it and the system will tithe back the enhanced earnings of the individuals for maybe the next two years.
Ovo je lokalna osoba koja se odlučuje da li će ući na tržište bebisiting usluga. Mogu znati da će morati da plate provere i obuke ako se žele uključiti na to tržište. Trebalo bi da idu na intervjue sa lokalnim roditeljima koji žele grupu bebisitera. Da li im se isplati? Da li bi trebalo da prate druge sektore? Da li bi trebalo da se presele u drugi deo zemlje gde postoji nedostatak bebisitera? Ova vrsta podataka može postati rutina. Ove podatke mogu da iskoriste investitori. Tako da ako postoji problem sa nedostatkom bebisitera u nekim delovima zemlje i problem je u tome što niko ne može da plati proveravanje i trening, investitor to može da plati i sistem će to nadoknaditi kroz uvećane zarade pojedinaca možda u naredne dve godine.
This is a world of atomized capitalism. So it's small trades by small people, but it's very informed, safe, convenient, low-overhead and immediate. Some rough research suggests this could unlock around 100 million pounds' worth a day of new economic activity in a country the size of the U.K.
Ovo je svet atomiziranog kapitalizma. Radi se o malim poslovima malih ljudi, ali veoma informisanim, sigurnim, podesnim, jeftinim i neposrednim. Grube procene predviđaju da bi ovo moglo otključati oko 100 miliona funti dnevnih ekonomskih aktivnosti u zemlji veličine Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva.
Does that sound improbable to you? That's what a lot of people said about turbo trading in financial exchanges 20 years ago. Do not underestimate the transformative power of truly modern markets.
Da li vam ovo zvuči neverovatno? To je puno ljudi reklo o turbo trgovini u finansijskim razmenama pre 20 godina. Ne podcenjujte moć transformacije stvarno modernih tržišta.
Thank you.
Hvala
(Applause)
(Aplauz)