Some people are obsessed by French wines. Others love playing golf or devouring literature. One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit, a bit special. I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky, from an airplane window.
Neki ljudi su opsednuti francuskim vinima. Drugi vole da igraju golf ili da prosto gutaju knjige. Moram priznati da je jedno od mojih najvećih zadovoljstava u životu pomalo specifično. Ne mogu vam opisati koliko uživam posmatrajući gradove iz vazduha, kroz prozor aviona.
Some cities are calmly industrious, like Dusseldorf or Louisville. Others project an energy that they can hardly contain, like New York or Hong Kong. And then you have Paris or Istanbul, and their patina full of history.
Neki gradovi su mirni i industrijski. kao što je Dizeldorf ili Luivil. Drugi zrače energijom koju jedva mogu da kontrolišu kao Njujork ili Hong Kong. A onda imate Pariz, ili Istanbul, i njihovu patinu punu istorije.
I see cities as living beings. And when I discover them from far above, I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space. Especially at night, when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden: the city's vascular system performing its vital function right before your eyes. But when I'm sitting in my car after an hour and a half of commute every day, that reality looks very different.
Ja vidim gradove kao živa bića. I kada ih tako posmatram sa visine, volim da pronalazim glavne ulice i auto-puteve koji im daju strukturu. Pogotovo noću, kad putnici čine da ove arterije izgledaju dramatično crveno i zlatno, gradski krvotok vrši svoju vitalnu funkciju baš pred vašim očima. Ali, kada sedim u svom autu, posle sat i po vožnje svakog dana, realnost izgleda potpuno drugačije.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Nothing -- not public radio, no podcast --
Bas ništa - ni javni radio, ni radijske emisije -
(Laughter) Not even mindfulness meditation makes this time worth living.
(Smeh) Pa čak ni sabrana meditacija ne čine ovo vreme vrednim življenja.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Isn't it absurd that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?
Zar nije apsurdno da smo stvorili automobile koji dostižu brzinu od 200 km/h, a da ih sada vozimo istom brzinom kao i kočije iz 19. veka?
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
In the US alone, we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014. With that amount of time, ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.
Samo u SAD-u smo proveli 29,6 milijardi sati u prevozu u 2014. godini. Sa tom količinom vremena, drevni Egipćani bi mogli sagraditi 26 piramida u Gizi.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
We do that in one year. A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.
Mi to uradimo u jednoj godini. Neopisiv gubitak vremena, energije i ljudskog potencijala.
For decades, our remedy for congestion was simple: build new roads or enlarge existing ones. And it worked. It worked admirably for Paris, when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings to create 85 miles of transportation-friendly boulevards. And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities. But in more established urban centers, significant network expansions are almost impossible: habitat is just too dense, real estate, too expensive and public finances, too fragile. Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick, and we should pay attention.
Decenijama, naš lek za zakrčenost je bio jednostavan: izgraditi nove puteve ili uvećati postojeće. I uspevalo nam je. U Parizu je uspeh bio zadivljujuć kada je u gradu porušeno na stotine istorijskih građevina da bi se izgradilo 140 km bulevara koji vozačima olakšavaju vožnju. I to i dalje uspeva u novim, brzo širećim gradovima. Međutim, u utvrđenijim urbanim centrima značajno proširenje saobraćajne mreže je gotovo nemoguće: nastanjenost je pregusta, nekretnine preskupe, a javni prihodi preosetljivi. Krvotok našeg grada se zapušava i razboljeva, a na to moramo obratiti pažnju.
Our current way of thinking is not working. For our transportation to flow, we need a new source of inspiration.
Naš trenutni način razmišljanja ne funkcioniše. Da bi naš saobraćaj tekao, treba nam novi izvor inspiracije.
So after 16 years working in transportation, my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer. She was telling me how her treatment was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system. "Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system -- all the veins and arteries in our body making miracles of logistics every day." This is the moment I realized that biology has been in the transportation business for billions of years. It has been testing countless solutions to move nutrients, gases and proteins. It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.
Posle 16 godina rada u saobraćaju, moj „aha“ momenat se desio u razgovaru sa mušterijom biotehnologom. Ona mi je govorila kako je njena terapija ojačavala određene osobine našeg kardiovaskularnog sistema. „Sjajno,“ pomislio sam, „naš krvotok - sve vene i arterije u našem telu sprovode logistička čuda svakog dana.“ To je bio momenat kada sam shvatio da je biologija u poslu transporta već milijardama godina. Testirala je bezbrojna rešenja za premeštanje hranljivih materija, gasova i proteina. Zaista jeste najprefinjenija transportna laboratorija na svetu.
So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us? I wanted to know: Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives, when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis? And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks. I don't know if you realize, but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies -- 60,000 miles. That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference, inside you. What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us, not just under the surface of our skin.
Šta ako se rešenje za naše saobraćajne probleme nalazi baš u nama samima? Želeo sam da saznam zbog čega krv teče našim venama celog života, a naši veliki gradovi su svakodnevno zakrčeni. Realno gledajući, mi posmatramo dve sasvim različite mreže. Ne znam da li ste svesni, ali svako od nas ima 100 000 kilometara krvnih sudova u telu - 100 000 kilometara. To su dve i po dužine Zemljinog obima, unutar vas. To znači da se krvni sudovi nalaze svuda unutar nas, ne samo ispod površine kože.
But if you look at our cities, yes, we have some underground subway systems and some tunnels and bridges, and also some helicopters in the sky. But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground, on the surface. So in other words, while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us, our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional. And so what we need is to embrace that verticality. If our surface grid is saturated, well, let's elevate our traffic.
Ali, ako pogledate naše gradove, istina je da imamo nekolicinu podzemnih veza i isto tako nekoliko tunela i mostova, kao i po koji helikopter u vazduhu. Ipak, velika većina našeg saobraćaja je skoncentrisana na zemlji, na površini. Drugačije govoreći, dok naš vaskularni sistem unutar nas koristi tri dimenzije, naš urbani saobraćaj je pretežno dvodimenzionalan. Dakle, ono što je potrebno je da prihvatimo tu vertikalnost. Ako je naša površinska mreža zasićena, hade da izdignemo saobraćaj.
This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams -- that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement inside our cities. And we can go higher, and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid. Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods. And we can keep climbing, and fly. The fact that a company like Airbus is now seriously working on flying urban taxis is telling us something. Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu to attractive business-case territory. And that's an exciting moment.
Ovaj kineski koncept autobusa koji može da opkorači gužvu u saobraćaju nam je otvorio oči kako može da se razmišlja o prostoru i kretanju u našim gradovima. A možemo ići i više i okačiti naš saobraćaj kao što smo i električnu mrežu. Tel Aviv i Abu Dabi će pokušati da testiraju ove futurističke mreže obešenih magnetnih kapsula. A možemo se i još penjati i poleteti. Činjenica da kompanija kao što je Erbas ozbiljno radi na letećim gradskim taksijima nam govori nešto. Leteći automobili se konačno sele iz deža vua naučne fantastike u teritorije primamljivih poslovnih ponuda. To je jedan uzbudljiv momenat.
So building this 3-D transportation network is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams. But it's not the only one. We have to question other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use. Just imagine a very familiar scene: You've been driving for 42 minutes. The two kids behind you are getting restless. And you're late. Do you see that slow car in front of you? Always comes when you're late, right?
Dakle, izgradnja trodimenzionalne saobraćajne mreže je jedan od načina da ublažimo i rešimo saobraćajne zastoje. Ali to nije jedini način. Moramo dovesti u pitanje i druge fundamentalne odluke koje smo doneli, kao što su vozila koja koristimo. Zamislite samo vrlo poznat prizor. Vozite se već 42 minuta. Dvoje dece iza vas postaju nemirni. I kasnite. Da li vidite taj spori auto ispred vas? Uvek se pojavi kad kasnite, zar ne?
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
That driver is looking for parking. There is no parking spot available in the area, but how would he know? It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated by drivers looking for parking. Do you see the 100 cars around you? Eighty-five of them only have one passenger. Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus. So the question is: Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most? Why are we doing this to ourselves?
Taj vozač je u potrazi za parkingom. Nema slobodnog parking mesta u celoj zoni, ali kako da on to zna? Procenjeno je da je čak 30 posto gradskog saobraćaja prouzrokovano vozačima koji traže parking. Vidite li stotinu automobila oko vas? Osamdeset pet njih imaju samo jednog putnika. Tih 85 vozača bi svi stali u jedan londonski crveni autobus. Dakle, pitanje je zašto traćimo prostor ako je to nešto što nam je najpotrebnije? Zašto ovo činimo sami sebi?
Biology would never do this. Space inside our arteries is fully utilized. At every heartbeat, a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells into massive trains of oxygen that quickly flow throughout our body. And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either. In healthy conditions, more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized. Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities were 95 percent full, all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike and to enjoy our cities?
Biologija tako nešto nikad ne bi uradila. Prostor unutar naših arterija je u potpunosti iskorišćen. Svakim otkucajem srca, viši krvni pritisak bukvalno sabija milione crvenih krvnih zrnaca u ogromne pakete kiseonika koji hitro teku našim telom. Nije protraćen ni sićušni prostor unutar crvenih krvnih zrnaca. Ukoliko su zdrave, više od 95 posto njihovog kapaciteta da skladište kiseonik je iskorišćeno. Zamislite samo da su vozila koja koristimo u našim gradovima 95 posto popunjena, sav taj prostor koji bismo imali da pešačimo, vozimo bicikle i uživamo u svojim gradovima?
The reason blood is so incredibly efficient is that our red blood cells are not dedicated to specific organs or tissues; otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins. No, they're shared. They're shared by all the cells of our body. And because our network is so extensive, each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen precisely when it needs them.
Razlog zbog kog je krv tako neverovatno efikasna je taj što naša crvena krvna zrnca nisu privržena određenim organima ili tkivima; u suprotnom bismo verovatno imali zastoje u svojim venama. Ne, oni su podeljeni. Podeljeni među svim ćelijama u našem telu. I baš zbog toga što je naša mreža toliko prostrana, svaka od naših 37 biliona ćelija dobije svoju porciju kiseonika baš onda kada joj treba.
Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation. But for our cities, we've been stuck. We've been stuck in an endless debate between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems. I think we should transcend this. I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars and the efficiencies of trains and buses. Just imagine. You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train, along with 1,200 passengers. The problem with urban trains is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times before your final destination.
Krv je i kolektivni i individualni vid transporta. Međutim, u slučaju naših gradova, malo smo zapeli. Zapeli u neprekidnoj raspravi između stvaranja „auto-centričnog“ društva ili prostranih sistema za masovni prevoz. Smatram da treba prevazići ovo. Smatram da možemo napraviti vozila koja spajaju pogodnost automobila sa efikasnošću vozova i autobusa. Zamislite samo. Udobno sedite u brzom i mirnom gradskom vozu zajedno sa još 1 200 putnika. Problem sa gradskim vozovima je što ponekad treba da se zaustavite pet, deset, petnaest puta pre krajnje destinacije.
What if in this train you didn't have to stop? In this train, wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving and become express, driverless buses that move on a secondary road network. And so without a single stop, nor a lengthy transfer, you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb. And when you get close, the section you're sitting in detaches and self-drives you right to your doorstep. It is collective and individual at the same time. This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.
Šta ako u ovom vozu ne biste morali da se zaustavljate? U ovom vozu, vagoni se mogu dinamički otkačiti dok se krećete i postati brzi samoupravljački autobusi koji se kreću sekundarnom mrežom puteva. I tako bez ijedne stanice ili otegnutih presedanja, sedite u autobusu koji se kreće prema vašem predgrađu. A kada se približite, odeljak u kom sedite se odvaja i sam vas vozi pravo do kućnog praga. Istovremeno je i kolektivno i individualno i moglo bi biti jedno od modularnih, samoupravljajućih vozila sutrašnjice.
Now ... as if walking in a city buzzing with drones, flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods was not exotic enough, I think there is another force in action that will make urban traffic mesmerizing. If you think about it, the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way into a traffic grid made by and for humans. They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple, and coping with human unpredictability, which is more challenging.
Sada... kao da šetnja gradom koji zuji od dronova, letećih taksija, modularnih autobusa i visećih magnetnih kapsula nije bila dovoljno egzotična, smatram da postoji još jedan način koji bi gradski prevoz učinio očaravajućim. Ako malo bolje razmislite, sadašnja generacija samoupravljajućih auta samo pokušava da nađe svoje mesto u saobraćajnoj mreži napravljenoj od ljudi za ljude. Oni pokušavaju da savladaju saobraćajna pravila, što je relativno jednostavno, kao i da se nose sa ljudskom nepredvidivošću, što je malo zahtevnije.
But what would happen when whole cities become driverless? Would we need traffic lights? Would we need lanes? How about speed limits? Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes. They never stop at red lights. In the first driverless cities, you would have no red lights and no lanes. And when all the cars are driverless and connected, everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum. They can drive much faster and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up or the cars around them. So instead of rigid traffic rules, flow will be regulated by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms. The result: a strange traffic that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.
A šta bi bilo kada bi čitavi gradovi postali samoupravljajući? Da li bi nam bili potrebni semafori? Da li bi nam bile potrebne trake? A ograničenja brzine? Crvena krvna zrnca ne teku u trakama. Nikad ne staju na crveno svetlo. U prvim samoupravljajućim gradovima, nećete naći ni crvena svetla ni trake. A kada su svi automobili samoupravljajući i umreženi, sve je predvidivo, a vreme reakcije minimalno. Mogu voziti mnogo brže i mogu preduzeti bilo kakvu racionalnu inicijativu koja ih može ubrzati, kao i vozila oko njih. Umesto strogih saobraćajnih pravila, tok će biti regulisan mrežom dinamičnih algoritama koji bi se konstantno poboljšavali. Rezultat je čudan saobraćaj koji spaja brzu, a uglađenu strogost nemačkih auto-puteva i kreativnu vitalnost saobraćajnica u Mumbaju.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Traffic will be functionally exuberant. It will be liquid like our blood. And by a strange paradox, the more robotized our traffic grid will be, the more organic and alive its movement will feel.
Saobraćaj će biti bujan i funkcionalan. Biće tečan poput naše krvi. I kao neki čudnovati paradoks, što robotizovaniji naš saobraćaj bude, to će njegovo kretanje biti življe i prirodnije.
So yes, biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today. But this process has taken billions of years, and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations. We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system. We now have the dreams, the concepts and the technology to create 3-D transportation networks, invent new vehicles and change the flow in our cities.
Dakle, da, danas biologija ima sve atribute jednog saobraćajnog genija, ali ovaj proces je trajao milijardama godina i prošao kroz razne iteracije i mutacije. Ne možemo čekati milijardu godina da naš saobraćajni sistem evoluira. Mi sada imamo snove, koncepte i tehnologiju da stvorimo trodimenzionalnu saobraćajnu mrežu, izumemo nova vozila i izmenimo tok u našim gradovima.
Let's do it.
Uradimo to.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)