Some people are obsessed by French wines. Others love playing golf or devouring literature. One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit, a bit special. I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky, from an airplane window.
Neki ljudi su opsjednuti francuskim vinima. Drugi vole igrati golf ili čitati. Jedan od najvećih užitaka u mom životu je, moram priznati, na neki način jedinstven. Ne mogu vam opisati koliko uživam u promatranju gradova iz zraka, kroz avionski prozor.
Some cities are calmly industrious, like Dusseldorf or Louisville. Others project an energy that they can hardly contain, like New York or Hong Kong. And then you have Paris or Istanbul, and their patina full of history.
Neki gradovi su hladno industrijski, kao Düsseldorf ili Louisville. Drugi stvaraju energiju koju mogu teško zauzdati, kao New York ili Hong Kong. A onda imate i Pariz ili Istanbul, sa svojom šarolikom povijesti.
I see cities as living beings. And when I discover them from far above, I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space. Especially at night, when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden: the city's vascular system performing its vital function right before your eyes. But when I'm sitting in my car after an hour and a half of commute every day, that reality looks very different.
Gradove vidim kao živa bića. I kada ih otkrivam sa visina, volim tražiti glavne ulice i autoceste koje ih strukturiraju. Posebno noću, kada vozači stvaraju predivne crvene i zlatne boje u tim gradskim arterijama: gradski kardiovaskularni sustav vrši svoju primarnu funkciju točno ispred vaših očiju. Ali kada sjedim u autu nakon sat i pol putovanja s posla svaki dan, stvarnost postaje potpuno drugačija.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Nothing -- not public radio, no podcast --
Ništa -- ni gradski radio, ni podcast --
(Laughter) Not even mindfulness meditation makes this time worth living.
(Smijeh) Čak ni Mindfulness meditacija u tom trenutku ne daje smisao životu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Isn't it absurd that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?
Nije li smiješno da smo izumili automobile koji mogu ići 210 km/h, a sada se vozimo brzinom kojom su išle kočije u 19. stoljeću?
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
In the US alone, we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014. With that amount of time, ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.
Samo u SAD-u, 2014. godine, utrošeno je 29.6 milijardi sati na putovanje s posla i na posao. U tom vremenskom periodu, drevni Egipćani su mogli izgraditi 26 piramida u Gazi.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
We do that in one year. A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.
Mi to uspijemo u jednoj godini. To je gorostasan gubitak vremena, energije i ljudskog potencijala.
For decades, our remedy for congestion was simple: build new roads or enlarge existing ones. And it worked. It worked admirably for Paris, when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings to create 85 miles of transportation-friendly boulevards. And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities. But in more established urban centers, significant network expansions are almost impossible: habitat is just too dense, real estate, too expensive and public finances, too fragile. Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick, and we should pay attention.
Desetljećima, naše rješenje za gužve je bilo sljedeće: izgraditi nove ceste ili povećati postojeće. I to je funkcioniralo. Funkcioniralo je prelijepo za Pariz, kada su srušili stotine povijesnih zgrada da bi izgradili 135 kilometara cesta koje olakšavaju promet. To i dan danas funkcionira u brzorastućim gradovima. Ali u većim urbanim središtima, značajan rast prometnih mreža gotovo je nemoguć: naseljenost je prevelika, nekretnine su preskupe, javne financije su prenestabilne. Kardiovaskularni sustav našeg grada postaje začepljen, postaje bolestan, i na to trebamo obratiti pažnju.
Our current way of thinking is not working. For our transportation to flow, we need a new source of inspiration.
Način na koji sada razmišljamo ne funkcionira. Da bi promet glatko tekao, treba nam neka nova inspiracija.
So after 16 years working in transportation, my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer. She was telling me how her treatment was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system. "Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system -- all the veins and arteries in our body making miracles of logistics every day." This is the moment I realized that biology has been in the transportation business for billions of years. It has been testing countless solutions to move nutrients, gases and proteins. It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.
Nakon 16 godina rada u prometu, moj "aha trenutak" dogodio se nakon razgovora sa pacijenticom biotehnologije. Govorila mi je kako joj njen tretman poboljšava određene aspekte kardiovaskularnog sustava. Odmah sam pomislio "Wow, naš kardiovaskularni sustav -- i sve vene i arterije u našem tijelu čine logistička čuda svaki dan." I tada sam shvatio da se biologija bavi prometom već milijarde godina. Isprobavala je nebrojena rješenja za prijevoz hranjivih tvari, plinova i bjelančevina. To je zaista najsofisticiraniji prometni laboratorij na svijetu.
So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us? I wanted to know: Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives, when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis? And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks. I don't know if you realize, but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies -- 60,000 miles. That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference, inside you. What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us, not just under the surface of our skin.
Što ako je rješenje za probleme u prometu zapravo u nama? Zanimalo me: Kako to da krv kola našim žilama praktički naš cijeli život, a veliki gradovi se svakodnevno zaštopavaju? Realno gledano, to su dvije vrlo različite mreže. Neznam jeste li znali da svatko od nas u sebi ima oko 100.000 kilometara krvnih žila -- 100.000 kilometara. To je dva i pol opsega zemlje, u vama. To znači da su krvne žile u nama posvuda, ne samo ispod kože.
But if you look at our cities, yes, we have some underground subway systems and some tunnels and bridges, and also some helicopters in the sky. But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground, on the surface. So in other words, while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us, our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional. And so what we need is to embrace that verticality. If our surface grid is saturated, well, let's elevate our traffic.
Ali kad gledamo naše gradove, istina je da imamo podzemne željeznice, tunele i mostove, i nekoliko helikoptera u zraku. Ali većina našeg prometa odvija se na zemlji, na površini. Dakle, drugim riječima, dok naš kardiovaskulirani sustav u nama radi u tri dimenzije, naš gradski promet je većinom dvodimenzionalan. Moramo prihvatiti tu okomitost. Ako je promet na površini zasićen, pa podignimo ga u zrak.
This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams -- that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement inside our cities. And we can go higher, and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid. Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods. And we can keep climbing, and fly. The fact that a company like Airbus is now seriously working on flying urban taxis is telling us something. Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu to attractive business-case territory. And that's an exciting moment.
Ovaj kineski koncept autobusa koji može zaobići gužve u prometu -- on potpuno mijenja način na koji gledamo prostor i kretanje u našim gradovima. Možemo ići još i više, i objesiti promet kao što to činimo s električnom mrežom. Tel Aviv i Abu Dhabi govore o testiranju futurističkih mreža obješenih magnetskih kapsula. Možemo se još penjati, toliko da poletimo u zrak. Činjenica da tvrtka kao Airbus trenutno radi na letećim gradskim taxijima nam govori nešto. Leteći automobili konačno prelaze iz znanstvene fantastike u atraktivne poslovne mogućnosti. I to je uzbudljiv trenutak.
So building this 3-D transportation network is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams. But it's not the only one. We have to question other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use. Just imagine a very familiar scene: You've been driving for 42 minutes. The two kids behind you are getting restless. And you're late. Do you see that slow car in front of you? Always comes when you're late, right?
Dakle, izgradnja tih 3D prometnih mreža je jedan način kako možemo upravljati gužvama u prometu i riješiti ih. No to nije jedini način. Ono što još moramo preispitati su neke temeljne odluke koje donosimo, kao što je korištenje vozila. Zamislite si jednu vrlo poznatu scenu: Vozite se već 42 minute. Dvoje djece iza vas postaju već jako nemirna. A vi kasnite. Vidite taj spori automobil ispred vas? Uvijek je tu kad negdje kasnite, zar ne?
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
That driver is looking for parking. There is no parking spot available in the area, but how would he know? It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated by drivers looking for parking. Do you see the 100 cars around you? Eighty-five of them only have one passenger. Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus. So the question is: Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most? Why are we doing this to ourselves?
Taj vozač traži parking. Nigdje u blizini nema slobodnog parkinga, ali kako on to može znati? Pretpostavlja se da je 30 posto prometnih gužvi uzrokovano vozačima koji traže parking. Vidite li tih 100 automobila oko vas? Osamdeset pet posto njih ima samo jednog putnika. Svih tih 85 putnika može stati u jedan Londonski crveni autobus. I onda se postavlja pitanje: Zašto bespotrebno iskorištavamo toliko prostora ako upravo njega najviše trebamo? Zašto si to radimo?
Biology would never do this. Space inside our arteries is fully utilized. At every heartbeat, a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells into massive trains of oxygen that quickly flow throughout our body. And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either. In healthy conditions, more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized. Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities were 95 percent full, all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike and to enjoy our cities?
Biologija to nikad ne bi napravila. Prostor u našim arterijama je potpuno iskorišten. Sa svakim otkucajem srca, krvni tlak doslovno zbija milijune crvenih krvnih stanica u ogromne vlakove kisika koji velikom brzinom putuju kroz tijelo. Čak je i mali prostor unutar crvenih krvnih stanica iskorišten. U normalnim uvjetima, više od 95% njihovog kapaciteta kisika je iskorišten. Možete li zamisliti da su vozila koja koristimo u našim gradovima 95% puna? Koliko bi mjesta imali za hodanje, vožnju biciklom i za uživanje u našim gradovima?
The reason blood is so incredibly efficient is that our red blood cells are not dedicated to specific organs or tissues; otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins. No, they're shared. They're shared by all the cells of our body. And because our network is so extensive, each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen precisely when it needs them.
Razlog zbog kojeg je krv toliko učinkovita je taj što naše crvene krvne stanice ne idu određenim organima ili tkivima; u suprotnom bi vjerojatno imali prometne gužve u venama. Ne, one su zajedničke. One su zajedničke svim stanicama u našem tijelu. I zbog toga što je naša mreža toliko prostrana, svaka od naših 37 trilijuna stanica dobiva svoju dozu kisika točno onda kada ga treba.
Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation. But for our cities, we've been stuck. We've been stuck in an endless debate between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems. I think we should transcend this. I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars and the efficiencies of trains and buses. Just imagine. You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train, along with 1,200 passengers. The problem with urban trains is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times before your final destination.
Krv je istovremeno zajednički i individualni oblik transportacije. Ali što se tiče naših gradova, tu smo zapeli. Zapeli smo u neprekidnoj polemici između stvaranja automobilskog društva ili opsežnih sustava javnog prijevoza. Mislim da to možemo nadići. Smatram da možemo stvoriti vozila koja povezuju udobnost automobila i efikasnost vlakova i autobusa. Zamislite samo. Udobno ste se smjestili u brzom i ugodnom gradskom vlaku, zajedno sa još 1200 putnika. Problem sa gradskim vlakovima je taj što on mora stati pet, deset, petnaest puta prije vašeg konačnog odredišta.
What if in this train you didn't have to stop? In this train, wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving and become express, driverless buses that move on a secondary road network. And so without a single stop, nor a lengthy transfer, you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb. And when you get close, the section you're sitting in detaches and self-drives you right to your doorstep. It is collective and individual at the same time. This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.
Zamislite da se uopće ne trebate zaustavljati. U ovom vlaku, vagoni se mogu odvajati u pokretu i postati ekspresni autobusi bez vozača koji se kreću sporednom mrežom. I tako bez ijednog zaustavljanja, bez duge vožnje, sada sjedite u autobusu koji ide prema vašem predgrađu. I kada ste dovoljno blizu, odjeljak u kojem sjedite se odvoji i odveze vas direktno pred vaš ulaz. Zajedničko i individualno u isto vrijeme. To može biti jedno od zajedničkih, modularnih vozila bez vozača.
Now ... as if walking in a city buzzing with drones, flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods was not exotic enough, I think there is another force in action that will make urban traffic mesmerizing. If you think about it, the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way into a traffic grid made by and for humans. They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple, and coping with human unpredictability, which is more challenging.
A onda ... ako hodanje gradom punom dronova, letećih taksija, modularnih autobusa i visećih magnetnih kapsula nije dovoljno egzotično, postoji još nešto što može učiniti gradski promet očaravajućim. Kada malo razmislite, sadašnja generacija samovozečih automobila tek pokušava zaslužiti svoju ulaznicu u gradsku prometnu mrežu namjenjenu ljudima. Pokušavaju naučiti prometna pravila, što je relativno jednostavno, i nositi se sa ljudskom nepredvidljivošću, što je daleko izazovnije.
But what would happen when whole cities become driverless? Would we need traffic lights? Would we need lanes? How about speed limits? Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes. They never stop at red lights. In the first driverless cities, you would have no red lights and no lanes. And when all the cars are driverless and connected, everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum. They can drive much faster and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up or the cars around them. So instead of rigid traffic rules, flow will be regulated by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms. The result: a strange traffic that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.
No, što bi se dogodilo kada bi cijeli gradovi bili bez vozača? Bi li trebali semafore? Bi li trebali trake? Što je sa ograničenjima brzina? Crvene krvne stanice ne teku u trakama. One ne staju na crveno. U prvim gradovima bez vozača, ne bi imali semafore niti trake. Kada su svi auti bez vozača i povezani, sve je predvidljivo, a vrijeme reakcije je najmanje moguće. Oni mogu voziti puno brže i mogu poduzeti bilo kakve razumne korake koji ih mogu ubrzati ili automobile oko njih. Dakle, umjesto krutih prometnih pravila, promet će biti reguliran spojem dinamičnih algoritama koji se konstantno poboljšavaju. Rezultat: neobičan promet koji povezuje brzo i glatko strujanje njemačkih autocesta sa kreativnom životnosti Mumbajskih raskrižja.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Traffic will be functionally exuberant. It will be liquid like our blood. And by a strange paradox, the more robotized our traffic grid will be, the more organic and alive its movement will feel.
Promet će biti bujan, ali funkcionalan. Bit će tekući, kao naša krv. I u čudnom kontrastu, što će prometna mreža biti kompjuteriziranija, to će biti prirodnija i njezine kretnje će izgledati živo.
So yes, biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today. But this process has taken billions of years, and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations. We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system. We now have the dreams, the concepts and the technology to create 3-D transportation networks, invent new vehicles and change the flow in our cities.
Da, biologija ima sve osobine prijevoznog genija. Ali taj je proces trajao milijardama godina, i prošao razne testove i mutacije. Mi ne možemo čekati milijarde godina da razvijemo svoj sustav transportacije. Sada imamo snove, koncepte i tehnologiju da razvijemo prijevozne 3D mreže, izumimo nova vozila i promijenimo tok prometa u našim gradovima.
Let's do it.
Učinimo to.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)