I'm an exhausted dad. Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators, who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers.
我是個筋疲力盡的爸爸。 目前被兩個迷你獨裁者 所擁有及支配著, 他們穿著好奇寶寶尿布, 用鐵腕統治著我。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately, I've been paying close attention to a particular headline. It seems around the world, in developed countries, people are having fewer babies. From North America to Europe to China to Japan, there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates. In fact, over the past 50 years, the global fertility rate has halved.
可能是因為我近來 一直淹沒在小小人堆裡, 我密切關注某個特定的頭條: 似乎在世界各地的已開發國家裡, 人們生育得更少了。 從北美到歐洲,從中國到日本, 出生率真的在持續下降。 事實上,在過去的 50 年裡, 全球生育率已經減半。
What the heck is going on? Now, my friends who don't want kids, all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies. And many of you are sitting there right now, saying, "Waj, there's also overpopulation, there's also high birth rates, which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries, there's also orphan kids who still need parents, there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone, and oh, by the way, we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet.
到底怎麼搞的? 如今我那些不想要孩子的朋友們 都把氣候變遷當作不生孩子的理由。 現在坐在你們當中的許多人說: 「瓦巨,還有人口過剩, 高出生率仍是許多非洲 和中東國家的景況, 還有孤兒需要父母認養, 資源不夠給每個人用, 哦,順便提一下, 還有巨量的碳足跡正摧毀這個星球。
I hear you, I hear you. And yet, despite all this chaos, I still think we should have babies. I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity, side by side.
我聽到了,聽到了。 然而,儘管有這些亂糟糟的情況, 我仍然認為我們應該生孩子。 我相信我們能夠而且應該 為地球和人類並肩作戰。
Now, if I could take it personal for a second, I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies. Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids. Young, happy, fresh.
請讓我稍以自身為例, 我完全明白你們當中有些人 對生孩子抱持著懷疑的態度。 這是愛妻和我生小孩前的一張照片。 年輕、快樂、清新。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Here's a photo of me after having kids. A broken, defeated husk of a man.
這是我有孩子後的照片。 一具破碎、被擊垮的身軀。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult. A Porsche. Here's what I actually drive. A Honda Odyssey minivan.
原先我以為成年後 要開照片裡這樣的車。 保時捷。 這是我實際上開的車。 本田奧德賽休旅車。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
(Applause)
(掌聲)
For the minivan. Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space, and good mileage, good mileage.
休旅車。 曾經有過的希望 現在換成方便的空間, 還省油。
Now, I just want to stress that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats of global warming and climate change. I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies is a deeply, profoundly personal choice. And that many who want to are unable. But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin. At how not having enough new people is going to be a major problem moving forward.
我只想強調, 我完全清楚全球暖化和氣候變遷 帶來的極端威脅。 我只想確認選擇生孩子 是個極為深刻的個人選擇。 許多想生的人無法生。 但今天讓我們看看另一面。 沒有足夠的新生兒 何以成為向前邁進的主要問題。
According to the World Health Organization, we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation. A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years -- yeah, it might be underpopulation. So a question: what happens if that number dips below 2.1? There's going to be a domino effect. As all of us get older, and live longer, there's going to be a shrinking younger population, which is going to lead to rising labor shortages in the world's biggest economies. I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany. Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue. Less tax revenue means less money and resources to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon. I'm talking about pensions and health care. It seems every generation is indeed connected.
世界衛生組織指出, 現在每名婦女 平均要生 2.1 個孩子, 才有足夠的人來接替上一代。 很多人認為百年內 人口過剩將會成為問題—— 對啦,問題也可能會是人口不足。 試問: 如果生育率低於 2.1 會怎樣? 會發生骨牌效應。 隨著我們所有人變老、活得更久, 年輕的人口將會萎縮, 將導致世界最大經濟體的 勞動力短缺問題日益嚴重。 我說的是美國、中國、日本、德國。 年輕勞動力的減少意味著稅收減少。 稅收減少意味著更少的資金和資源 用在我們人人依賴的安全網上。 我說的是養老金和醫療保健, 那似乎與每一個世代都息息相關。
But how the heck did we get here in the first place? Well, in some cases, it was intentional. Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times. Let's stop in China. Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980. In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy, largely limiting most parents to having just one kid to combat overpopulation. Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely.
但首先到底為什麼 我們會淪落到這步田地? 某些情況是故意為之。 讓我們把迪羅倫時光汽車 開回到昔時單純的年代。 讓我們停在中國, 停在迪斯可沒落 和 《星戰五部曲:帝國大反擊》間, 1980 年。 中國在 1980 年決定 實施一胎化政策, 大規模限制多數父母 只能夠生一個孩子, 來對抗人口過剩問題。 看這些可愛、老式的中國宣傳。
Now, fast-forward to 2019. Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015, China's birth rates have largely declined. In fact, the falling population in China is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth -- people. If trends continue, China's population is actually going to peak in 2029, before entering "unstoppable decline." China's government is so freaked out right now that it's actually doing new propaganda -- it's begging couples to have children for the country.
現在,快轉到 2019 年。 即使一胎化政策 已在 2015 年鬆綁了, 中國的出生率已然大幅下降。 事實上,中國的人口下降正消泯 其最大增長推動力之一 ——人。 倘若此趨勢持續下去, 中國的人口將在 2029 年達到頂峰, 然後陷入「無法阻擋的衰退」。 現在中國政府嚇壞了, 所以正推出新的宣傳—— 懇求夫妻「為國家」生孩子。
Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan, home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.
讓我們乘坐迪羅倫時光汽車跳到日本, 我心愛的本田奧德賽休旅車的故鄉。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones. The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year. And unlike other countries, it has not been able to replace its population numbers through immigrant workers. There will be labor shortages and not enough money to fund the safety-net programs. Now, Japan has introduced two solutions. First, a financial incentive. Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies, with the money increasing with each additional child being born. This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama. It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8. But it did not gain traction across Japan.
日本現在生產的成人紙尿褲 比嬰兒尿布還多。 日本的孩子人口連續減少 37 年。 與其他國家不同, 它無法透過移工填補人口數。 日本將出現勞動力短缺, 以及安全網計劃的資金不足。 現在日本推出了兩種解決方案。 一是經濟的獎勵。 有些日本地方政府發獎金鼓勵生育, 生越多,給的錢就越多。 2014 年時用在這個名為 海士町的小鎮真的有效。 將出生率從每名婦女約生 1.66 個孩子提高到 1.8 個。 但未能在日本各地帶起風潮。
In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack. He told young people, "You're selfish for not having babies." Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac. Surprise, I know, surprise. Who would have thought?
2018年,日本執政黨 領導人嘗試新策略。 他告訴年輕人: 「不生孩子是自私的行為。」 令人大吃一驚的是, 羞辱並不是激動人心的壯陽藥。 意外,真意外。 誰想得到?
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Let's take the DeLorean to Europe, the continent of delicious cheeses I love to eat but cannot pronounce. The UK and much of Western Europe has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman, which at least is better than Hungary, where it hovers around 1.45. Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids. He said families where the women have four or more kids will no longer pay income tax. Pretty good, right, pretty good. At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal, which once offered women in a particular region the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids.
讓我們搭乘迪羅倫時光汽車到歐洲, 歐陸出產我愛吃 卻叫不出名字的美味起司。 英國和西歐大部分地區的出生率 約為每名婦女生 1.7 個孩子, 至少比匈牙利的 1.45 上下來的好。 現在,匈牙利總理 維克多·奧爾班 提出一個新的解決方案, 試圖鼓勵人們生孩子。 他說,女性生了四個孩子以上的家庭 無需再繳納所得稅。 非常好,對,非常好。 至少比俄羅斯 2007 年的提案要好, 他們曾為某個地區的女性 提供獲得冰箱的機會, 只要她們多生幾個孩子。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work. But hold on, pump the brakes. Orbán is primarily proposing this because he wants to limit the population of Muslims and people of color. He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color has to be "mixed with those of others." Subtle. Unfortunately for Orbán, and much of the EU, the birth rates are not high enough right now to be replenished without immigration. Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline. So it seems, in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim.
沒錯,沒有用,無效。 但等一下,踩個剎車。 奧爾班這個提議主要是因為 他想限制穆斯林和有色人種的人口。 他說他不認為匈牙利的 傳統、文化和色彩 必須「與其他人混合」。 微妙。 不幸的是,對於奧爾班 和歐盟的大部分地區而言, 如果除去移民, 目前的出生率不足以補充人口。 歐盟國家的人口減少。 因此似乎在歐洲,業力 將轉化為棕皮膚和穆斯林。
(Laughter) (Applause)
(笑聲)(掌聲)
Just saying.
說說而已。
The question remains: Why aren't people having enough kids? Why is the birth rate declining in these countries? In some cases, it's because women are more literate, more educated. They have more economic opportunities -- applaud. All good things, all good things, yes.
問題仍然存在: 為什麼大家生的孩子不夠多? 為什麼這些國家的出生率會下降? 某些情況下 是因為女性的文化程度更高, 受教育的程度更高。 她們有更多的經濟機會——鼓掌。 這些都很好,都些都很好,沒錯。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
In India, this has been fantastic, it has actually reduced the birth rate but kept it above that magic 2.1 number. Women also have more access to birth control, more control over their reproductive lives, all good things. But in the United States, in particular, a lot of young people are opting out of having kids, largely cite the same reason: financial concerns.
在印度很神奇, 實際上印度的出生率降低了, 但保持略高於 2.1 那個神奇數字。 婦女也獲得更多節育的機會, 更能掌控其生育的生活, 這些都很好。 但是尤其在美國, 很多年輕人選擇不生孩子, 主要歸究於同樣的原因: 財務問題。
Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, the United States of America, where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017. The United States is the most expensive country in the world to give birth. If you do not have insurance, it will cost you 32,000 dollars to have a baby, if everything goes perfectly. That's like buying a brand new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK? So, congratulations, you just had a baby, but the baby's economic productivity is zero, and guess what? The United States is the only industrialized country in the world that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave. "Mom, you just had a baby, congratulations, that's lovely. Get back to work or you're fired, young mom!" My wife and I, both working parents, pay about 3,500 dollars a month -- a month -- in Virginia for childcare. If you do the math, that's 40,000 dollars a year. That's like buying a brand new, souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK. I have one, I do not need 10.
讓我們把迪羅倫時空汽車 開到我的祖國:美國, 那裡的出生率在 2017 年 達到歷史新低。 美國是世界上 生育最昂貴的國家。 如果沒有保險, 生個孩子將花費 32,000 美元, 前提是一切順利。 這就像買一輛全新的 本田奧德賽休旅車,知道嗎? 因此,恭喜你剛喜獲麟兒, 但寶寶沒任何經濟生產力, 猜猜怎麼著? 美國是世上唯一不要求雇主 提供帶薪育嬰假的工業化國家。 「恭喜年輕的媽媽, 妳剛生了個孩子,很好, 回去工作, 要不然妳就要被解雇了!」 我們夫婦兩人都工作, 在維吉尼亞州每個月托兒大約 支付 3500 美元,一個月哦。 加總起來是每年 4 萬美元。 這就像買一輛全新、配備齊全的 本田奧德賽小型貨車,知道吧。 我有一輛,不需要 10 輛。
So here's my bold suggestion. Let's make it easier for people to have babies. It seems in order to invest in our future, we actually have to invest in the present and help those people who want to become parents. Give them affordable health care, give them affordable childcare, give them paid parental leave. Among the EU states in 2017, France reported the highest birth rates. Why? Largely due to its pronatal policies that actually kept women in the workforce. I'm talking about subsidized daycare and paid maternal leave. China and Japan, thank God, are finally wisening up and proposing such policies. This is great.
所以我大膽提議: 讓生兒育女變輕鬆一點。 看來為了投資未來, 我們真的必須投資於現在, 幫助那些想當父母親的人。 給他們負擔得起的醫療保健, 給他們負擔得起的托兒服務, 給他們帶薪育嬰假。 在 2017 年的歐盟國家中, 法國的出生率最高。 為什麼? 主要是由於法國有利的生育政策 讓女性真能留在勞動市場上。 我說的是補貼日托和帶薪的產假。 感謝上帝,中國和日本 終於提出這樣的政策。 這很棒。
That being said, I know some of you have listened to me and you still think the best investment we can make in the future is not having babies. I respect that. I get where you're coming from. And I know many of you in this audience want to have babies but you are terrified about the future. And as a parent, I feel you. I'm scared about the future.
話雖如此,我知道有些人 聽了我的話仍然認為 對最好的未來投資就是不生孩子。 我尊重。 我明白你們的思維。 我也知道聽眾裡 有很多人想要生孩子, 但是對未來感到害怕。 作為父母,我感同身受。 我害怕未來。
I wrote that last line a month ago. But it really hit home three days ago for me, while I was at TED. Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying. I pick it up in my hotel room. And she said, "I'm calling from the hospital." We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba, who was named after a warrior princess, to the hospital, because she found a bump on the stomach. We got back the results, and there were bumps all around her liver. Today, this morning, we found out that she has stage IV liver cancer.
我在一個月前寫下剛剛那句話。 但是三天前我才充分意識到, 當時我就在 TED 這裡。 三天前,我妻子哭著打電話給我。 我在旅館房裡接到電話。 她說:「我是從醫院打來的。」 我們不得不帶著女兒努賽巴—— 她以一位公主戰士的名字命名—— 去了醫院,因為她發現 孩子的肚子上有一硬塊。 我們獲知她的肝臟周圍都是腫瘤。 今天早上我們得知她肝癌第四期。
(Audience gasps)
(觀眾震驚,倒抽一口氣)
It has been a challenging week. It has been a challenging week. And if I may, I just want to take a moment to acknowledge the TED staff, everyone, top-down, everyone in the back, in the green room, some of the speakers, word has spread. On behalf of my family, my wife, and my parents -- my Pakistani parents said I had to say this -- thank you for just being decent and kind this week. So thank you.
這是充滿挑戰的一週。 這是充滿挑戰的一週。 請讓我花一點時間 答謝 TED 的工作人員, 每個人,從上到下, 後面的、休息室的每個人, 一些講者,話傳開來了。 我代表家人、妻子 和父母——我巴基斯坦的父母—— 我必須說: 謝謝你們在過去一週 對我如此親切與和善。 謝謝你們。
(Applause)
(掌聲)
These are my beloveds, my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies. I talked to my wife, and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead, we both concluded that we regret nothing. Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made. Our babies have brought us so much joy and they've brought the world so much joy, and having kids is a risk, but life is a risk. And yes, I hope you've been paying attention, we need to invest in babies in developed countries if we want to help save our economy and pensions. But that's not the reason you have babies. That's not the main reason. Babies have always represented humanity's best, boldest, most beautiful infinite possibilities.
這是我心愛的易卜拉欣和努賽巴, 我的寶貝。 我和妻子談過, 儘管有可怕的消息和眼前的挑戰, 我們都得出結論,我們不後悔。 決定生孩子是我們做過的最好決定。 孩子給我們帶來如此多的快樂, 給世界帶來如此多的快樂, 擁有孩子有風險, 但生命本來就有風險。 沒錯,我希望你們一直在注意聽, 如果想挽救經濟和養老金, 我們已開放國家 必需投資在嬰兒身上。 但這不是你生孩子的原因。 不是主要的原因。 嬰兒一直代表著人類最好、 最大膽、最美麗的無限可能。
And if we in developed countries, as a whole, opt out, and don't invest in present and future generations, then what the hell's the point? What's the point of being on this absurd journey together? And so, for those who can and who choose to, for those who can and who choose to have kids, may you pass on this beautiful thing called life, with kindness, generosity, decency and love.
如果我們已開放國家 作為整體,選擇退出, 不投資於當代和後代, 那還有什麼意義呢? 共同走一趟這荒謬的 人生旅程有什麼意義呢? 因此,對於那些能選而且選了的人, 那些能選而且選擇生孩子的人來說, 你們將美好的生命 與善良、慷慨、 正直和愛傳遞下去。
Thank you.
謝謝你們。
(Applause)
(掌聲)