I'm a techno-optimist, but techno-optimism should be practiced with both empathy and care. And I’m a believer in what is possible if you do it that way.
我是一个技术乐观主义者, 但是技术乐观主义 应该伴以同理心和关怀。 我坚信只要这么做了, 一切皆有可能。
First, I'm going to give you a word of warning. Experts extrapolate the past. They prevent radical progress because they don't think nonlinearly. They don't think of the improbable. I personally believe only the improbables are important. We just don't know which improbable is important.
首先,我要警告大家一句。 专家推断过去。 他们会避免激进的发展, 因为他们不会以非线性的思维思考。 他们不会考虑不可能的事。 我个人认为只有 不可能的事情才是重要的。 我们只是不知道 哪件不可能的事是重要的。
Entrepreneurs, on the other hand, with a passion for a vision, they dream the dreams, and then are foolish enough, and we need more foolishness, to try and make those implausible dreams come true. That's what entrepreneurship is about, something I've loved my whole life.
另一方面,创业者对愿景充满热忱, 他们心怀梦想,也够蠢, 但我们需要更多的愚蠢, 才能努力使那些不现实的梦想成真。 这就是创业的意义所在, 也是我的一生所爱。
In the 40 years, I’ve been doing innovation and innovation only. This may surprise people. I can't think of a single large social impact change that was driven by an expert in the field, possibly with the exception of biotechnology, that's driven by an expert, by a large institution, a large non-founder-led company. Think about it. In 40 years, not one example. Whether you look at SpaceX, or electric cars or Uber, not one example. The earliest one I could think of was credit cards in the early 70s, when Bank of America put credit on plastic.
在过去的 40 年中, 我一直在创新,也只在创新。 这可能会让人们感到惊讶。 我想不出任何一个 重大的社会影响变化 是由领域专家推动的, 也许生物科技是个例外, 它是由专家、大型机构、 非创始人领导的大型公司推动的。 想想看,40 年来, 一个例子都没有。 无论是 SpaceX、 电动汽车还是 Uber, 一个例子都没有。 我能想到的最早的例子 是 70 年代早期的信用卡, 当时美国银行把“信用” 放在了塑料卡片上。
So what is this plausible world? I'll go through a dozen scenarios that I believe most experts will pooh-pooh.
一个可能会出现的世界 是什么样的呢? 我将介绍一些场景, 我相信很多专家都对此嗤之以鼻。
Most expertise enabled by AI will be free. I'm most excited that every human being on the planet can have, 24/7, a free doctor, primary care in a very expansive way. That every child can have a free tutor in a very available, accessible way, and these will be near free. It doesn't matter, other expertise whether you're looking at structural engineers or oncologists, most expertise will be near free. The cost of computing. Most labor will also be free. I can imagine a billion bipedal robots doing more work than all of human labor does today, freeing humans from the servitude of some of the jobs. Working at General Motors on an assembly line for eight hours a day, doing the same thing for 30 years. That's not a job. That's almost slavery. I do believe we will have enough abundance to take care of everybody who is displaced. And that's where the empathy part of techno-optimism comes in. We will have enough for redistribution to happen.
大多数由 AI 提供的专业知识 都将是免费的。 最令我兴奋的是, 地球上的每个人 都能全天候获得一位免费的医生, 非常广泛地获取初级治疗。 每一个孩子都能获得一位免费的老师, 随时可用、人人可用, 而它将几乎是免费的。 无所谓,其他专业技能, 无论是结构工程师还是肿瘤学家, 大多数专业知识都几乎会是免费的。 计算成本。 大多数劳动力也将是免费的。 我可以想象,十亿台双足机器人 所做的工作量 比现在所有的人类劳动还要多, 将人类从一些工作的奴役中解放出来。 每天在通用汽车公司的 流水线上工作八个小时, 日复一日 30 年。 这都不是份工作。 几乎就是奴役。 我相信我们会有足够富余的空间 留给那些工作内容不合适的人们。 这就是技术乐观主义中的 同理心的用武之地。 我们将有足够的资源进行再分配。
Programming will be near free also. And though we think of computers as pervasive today, I think they'll be much more prevalent, much more pervasive and expansive. In fact, I think we will think of computers almost like a utility. How many of you think about electricity? That's how it will be in the background, not in our face. And like this little Rabbit device I have in my hand, we'll just talk to it. It'll understand human instruction. Computers will adapt to humans. We won't have to have humans learn computer.
编程也几乎会是免费的。 尽管我们认为计算机 如今无处不在, 但我认为它们会更加普遍、 更无处不在、更广泛。 我觉得我们都差不多会把计算机 当作水电煤这样的公共服务。 有多少人想到了电力? 它们就这样隐藏在背后, 而不是在我们眼前。 就像我手中这台 小小的 Rabbit 设备, 我们直接与其对话。 它能理解人类的指令。 计算机将适应人类。 我们不必让人类学习计算机。
Five years ago, when I first spoke at a conference in Toronto on the role AI will play in music generation, I was met with skepticism. In fact, derision. Whether it's AI alone or AI plus humans, the level of creativity in entertainment and design will dramatically go up. The level of diversity of these things will go up dramatically. I'm excited about that.
五年前,当我在多伦多的一场会议上 首次谈到 AI 将在音乐生成领域 起到什么作用时, 我受到了质疑。 其实是嘲笑。 无论是单凭 AI 还是 AI 加上人类, 娱乐和设计领域的创造力水平 都将大大提高。 这些领域的多样性水平 也将急剧上升。 我对此感到兴奋。
Surprisingly, internet access will mostly be by agents. Billions of agents running around doing things for us humans.
令人意外的是, 上网将大部分由智能体代劳。 上亿智能体奔波为人类做事。
Medicine is my other favorite. We have pretty good medicine today, but we have the practice of medicine, and it will change to the science of medicine. It will change from what is mostly sick care today, we apply medicine when people are sick, to health care to prevent sickness. It's a shame that in this day and age, most people who get a heart attack discover they have cardiac disease by having a heart attack, not 20 years earlier when that disease started. That won't happen.
医学是我最喜欢的另一个领域。 如今,我们有相当不错的药物, 但我们有医学实践, 它将转为医学。 它将改变现在主流的“疾病治疗”, 即我们在人们患病时使用药物, 转变为“疾病预防”的医疗保健。 遗憾的是,在当今这个时代, 大多数心脏病发作的患者 发现自己有心脏疾病 就是心脏病发作的时候, 而不是早在 20 年前 患上这种疾病的时候。 不可能的。
Food. We will have new types of proteins, which we need, and new kinds of fertilizer essential to agriculture. RuBisCO is the most prevalent protein on the planet. Every place you see green, there is RuBisCO behind that chlorophyll, or almost everywhere. There's a few exceptions. And we will have much more environmentally better proteins than either plant proteins, and possibly better than corn and soy. So I'm excited about that, and greener fertilizer.
食物。 我们将有我们需要的新型蛋白质 和农业必需的新型肥料。 核酮糖-1,5-二磷酸羧化酶(RuBisCO) 是地球上最常见的蛋白质。 你看到的每一处绿色, 叶绿素都有 RuBisCO, 也就是几乎到处都有 RuBisCO。 有一些例外。 我们将拥有对环境更友好的蛋白质, 比任何植物蛋白都友好, 可能比玉米和大豆更好。 所以我对此感到兴奋, 还有更环保的肥料。
Oh, my favorite. Experts completely disagree with me when I say this. We can, in the next 25 years, replace most cars in most cities. Why? By making transit faster than a chauffeured car, cheaper than a public transit system and pervasive, any time on demand. And yes, we can do it. In fact, we are building the first one of these public transit systems in San Jose today.
哦,我的最爱。 专家们完全不同意我的这种说法。 在接下来的 25 年中,我们可以 替换掉大多数城市的大多数汽车。 为什么?通过使交通 比驾驶员驾驶的汽车更快, 比公共交通系统更便宜, 并且可以随时按需使用。 是的,我们可以做到。 我们现在就在圣何塞建造 第一个这样的公共交通系统。
Another one of these, flying at almost 4000 mph. We will be able to fly from New York to London for lunch. It will make the world a much closer place.
还有另一个,以将近 4000 英里/小时的速度飞行。 我们可以从纽约飞往伦敦吃午饭。 它将使世界变得更加紧密。
And we fret a lot about power, and we think solar and wind are the solution. They're great solutions I've been advocating for the last 20 years. But fusion power will replace most coal and natural gas power plants today. Again, people say we can't build that many. We can if we are smart, if we just replace their boilers, or maybe the boilers and their turbines. In fact, all those plants will probably be retrofitted with fusion, possibly with superhot geothermal, not the kind of geothermal you've heard about, even heard about at TED. But much hotter, better, more efficient geothermal.
我们对能源非常担忧, 我们认为太阳能和风能 会是解决方案。 它们是我在过去 20 年中 一直倡导的绝佳解决方案。 但是核聚变能源将取代 如今大多数煤炭和天然气发电厂。 还有人说我们建不了那么多。 如果我们聪明, 只要我们更换锅炉, 更换锅炉和涡轮机, 我们就能做到。 这些发电厂也许都会 被核聚变更新换代, 可能会使用超热地热, 不是那种你听说过的地热, TED 上提到过的地热。 而是更热、更好、更高效的地热。
Doomers say we don't have enough resources like lithium and copper. In fact, I say we haven't started to look. In fact, we haven't started to develop the technologies that will let us look a kilometer below the surface. We are well on our way, though.
消极主义者说我们没有 足够的资源,比如锂和铜。 我得说我们还没有开始研究。 我们还没有开始开发 能让我们看到地表以下一公里的技术。 但是,我们已经走上了正轨。
There will be carbon solutions for everything. Entrepreneurs are working on this. There's only a dozen major emitter categories, and I wrote a blog on it about two years ago. And it only takes one entrepreneur to tackle each of these categories, so a dozen instigators can change the world of climate. In fact, we inaugurated last week the first cement plant in California which from the same amount of limestone produces twice the amount of cement by capturing the carbon dioxide and putting it into product. You repurpose existing plants, upgrade them like you would coal plants and natural gas plants, and you increase the level of product while decreasing the cost per ton. That's what makes these things scalable.
一切都将有碳解决方案。 创业人士正在研究这个问题。 只有十几个主要的排放物类别, 大约两年前, 我写了一篇关于这点的博客。 每个类别只需要一个创业者来解决, 因此,十几簇星星之火 就能改变气候的世界。 我们上周在加利福尼亚 落成了第一家水泥厂, 使用等量的石灰石 可以产出两倍的水泥, 通过捕获二氧化碳 并将其放入产品。 你可以重新利用现有发电厂, 像升级燃煤电厂 和天然气发电厂一样升级它们, 在降低每吨成本的同时 提高产品水平。 正是如此 可以让这些生意扩大规模。
All we need is a few entrepreneurs who will imagine the impossible, dream the dreams, and then be foolish enough to make them come true. There's lots of reasons this won't happen, but I won't delve into them. But I do think a really abundant world is possible. It only takes a few motivated, impassioned entrepreneurs to make it happen.
我们需要的只是一些创业者, 他们想象不可能的事情,畅想梦想, 足够愚蠢,让梦想成真。 无法成真的原因很多, 但我不会详谈。 但我确实认为 一个非常丰富的世界是可能的。 只需要一些胸怀大志、 充满激情的创业者就能让它实现。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)