Today I wanted to -- well, this morning -- I want to talk about the future of human-driven transportation; about how we can cut congestion, pollution and parking by getting more people into fewer cars; and how we can do it with the technology that's in our pockets. And yes, I'm talking about smartphones ... not self-driving cars.
今天早上我想—— 我想談一談人類交通運輸的未來; 有關於我們如何通過 共乘減少車輛的方式 來解決塞車、汙染、及停車問題; 以及我們如何運用 我們現有的科技來達成。 沒錯,我談的是智慧型手機... 不是自動駕駛車。
But to get started we've got to go back over 100 years. Because it turns out there was an Uber way before Uber. And if it had survived, the future of transportation would probably already be here.
但一開始,我們要先回到 100 年前。 因為,原來在優步之前 就已經有一個優步了。 而如果它仍然存在的話, 那未來的交通運輸方式 現在可能已經存在了。
So let me introduce you to the jitney. In 1914 it was created or invented by a guy named LP Draper. He was a car salesman from LA, and he had an idea. Well, he was cruising around downtown Los Angeles, my hometown, and he saw trolleys with long lines of people trying to get to where they wanted to go. He said, well, why don't I just put a sign on my car that takes people wherever they want to go for a jitney -- that was slang for a nickel.
所以,讓我向各位介紹 jitney (以前的小公車)。 它是在1914年由一位叫 LP Draper 的人所創造或發明的。 他是一位來在洛杉磯的 汽車銷售員,他有一個點子。 他當時在洛杉磯, 也就是我的家鄉徘徊, 他看到電車的乘客大排長龍 等著要被載到目的地。 他說,為什麼我不放個 告示牌在我車上, 告訴大家說,只要五分錢, 我就可以載他們去想去的地方—— jitney 在當時 也是五分錢的俗稱。
And so people jumped on board, and not just in Los Angeles but across the country. And within one year, by 1915, there were 50,000 rides per day in Seattle, 45,000 rides per day in Kansas and 150,000 rides per day in Los Angeles. To give you some perspective, Uber in Los Angeles is doing 157,000 rides per day, today ... 100 years later.
所以,有人開始跳上車, 而且不僅限於洛杉磯而是全國。 就在 1915 的那一年內, 西雅圖當時每天就有 5 萬人次搭車, 堪薩斯州一天有 4.5 萬人次搭車, 而洛杉磯一天有 15 萬人次。 讓各位比較一下, 100 年後的今天,洛杉磯的優步 每天有 15.7 萬人次搭車。
And so these are the trolley guys, the existing transportation monopoly at the time. They were clearly not happy about the jitney juggernaut. And so they got to work and they went to cities across the country and got regulations put in place to slow down the growth of the jitney.
所以,當時這些電車司機 在那個年代,電車當時 壟斷了運輸行業。 因此他們對小公車的崛起相當不滿。 所以他們開始在全國 各大城市奔走游說, 並提出阻礙的交通法規 來減緩小公車的成長。
And there were all kinds of regulations. There were licenses -- often they were pricey. In some cities, if you were a jitney driver, you were required to be in the jitney for 16 hours a day. In other cities, they required two jitney drivers for one jitney. But there was a really interesting regulation which was they had to put a backseat light -- install it in every Jitney -- to stop a new pernicious innovation which they called spooning.
各式各樣的法規都有。 駕駛執照——通常都很貴。 在一些城市, 如果你是小公車司機, 你被要求必須一天有 16 小時在車內。 其它城市, 他們被要求 2 個人輪班 開一台小公車 。 但,有一條法規很搞笑, 每一台小公車, 都得安裝一個後座位燈—— 來阻止當時男女抱在一起 親熱。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
All right. So what happened? Well, within a year this thing had taken off. But the jitney, by 1919, was regulated completely out of existence.
好的,所以後來發生了甚麼事? 是的,當年這件事成長地相當快, 但在1919年, 小公車被立法完全禁止。
That's unfortunate ... because, well, when you can't share a car, then you have to own one. And car ownership skyrocketed and it's no wonder that by 2007, there was a car for every man, woman and child in the United States. And that phenomenon had gone global. In China by 2011, there were more car sales happening in China than in the US.
真的很可惜...... 因為,當你不能共乘一台車時, 那你就必須擁有一輛車。 所以,這也難怪,在 2007 年時, 私家車開始蓬勃發展, 美國的男人、女人、小孩都有一台車。 而這個現象席捲了全球。 中國在 2011 年, 汽車的銷售數量 首度超過美國。
Now, all this private ownership of course had a public cost. In the US, we spend 7 billion hours a year, wasted, sitting in traffic. 160 billion dollars in lost productivity, of course also sitting in traffic, and one-fifth of all of our carbon footprint is spewed out in the air by those cars that we're sitting in.
當然,大量的私家車 帶來了公眾的負擔。 在美國,我們一年要花 70 億小時, 浪費時間呆坐在車陣中。 1600 億美金的生產力 就這樣被塞車給消耗掉了。 當然,當你坐在車裡, 有五分之一的碳足跡, 是我們在塞車時排放到空氣中的。
Now, that's only four percent of our problem though. Because if you have to own a car then that means 96 percent of the time your car is sitting idle. And so, up to 30 percent of our land and our space is used storing these hunks of steel. We even have skyscrapers built for cars. That's the world we live in today.
這也只是占我們 4% 的問題而已, 因為,如果你必須擁有一台車, 表示有 96% 的時間, 你的車是靜止不動的。 而有將近30%的土地及 我們居住的空間 要用來存放這些大鐵怪。 我們甚至蓋了高樓停車場。 這是我們當今居住的世界。
Now, cities have been dealing with this problem for decades. It's called mass transit. And even in a city like New York City, one of the most densely populated in the world and one of the most sophisticated mass transit systems in the world, there are still 2.5 million cars that go over those bridges every day. Why is that? Well, it's because mass transit hasn't yet figured out how to get to everybody's doorstep. And so back in San Francisco, where I live, the situation's much worse, in fact, much worse around the world.
如今,很多城市被「大眾運輸」 的問題困擾了好幾十年。 甚至像紐約這個城市, 全世界人口最密集的地方, 全世界大眾運輸 最複雜精密的地方, 每天仍有 250 萬台車 要經過那些橋。 為什麼會這樣? 因為大眾運輸還搞不清楚, 如何把每個人載到家門口。 所以,回到我住的地方,舊金山 狀況更糟糕, 事實上,比全世界其它地方還要糟。
And so the beginning of Uber in 2010 was -- well, we just wanted to push a button and get a ride. We didn't have any grand ambitions. But it just turned out that lots of people wanted to push a button and get a ride, and ultimately what we started to see was a lot of duplicate rides. We saw a lot of people pushing the same button at the same time going essentially to the same place.
所以, 2010 年優步剛開始是—— 沒錯,我們只是想讓 乘客按個鈕,搭個便車。 我們並沒有多大的野心。 但後來才發現... 原來,很多人都想按個鈕一起共乘, 最後,我們開始看到了 很多人都搭同一台車。 我們看到很多人, 同時一起按了那個鈕, 基本上,就是要去同一個地方。
And so we started thinking about, well, how do we make those two trips and turn them into one. Because if we did, that ride would be a lot cheaper -- up to 50 percent cheaper -- and of course for the city you've got a lot more people and a lot fewer cars.
所以,我們開始想, 好吧!我們要如何把 兩條路線併成一條? 因為,如果我們這樣做, 那車資會變很便宜 ——幾乎是半價—— 當然,這樣一來, 城市裡就會有更少的車, 搭載更多的人。
And so the big question for us was: would it work? Could you have a cheaper ride cheap enough that people would be willing to share it? And the answer, fortunately, is a resounding yes.
所以,我們的大問題是: 這行得的通嗎? 可以有更便宜的車資, 足夠便宜到讓人們想共乘嗎? 很幸運,這個答案是肯定的。
In San Francisco, before uberPOOL, we had -- well, everybody would take their car wherever the heck they wanted. And the bright colors is where we have the most cars. And once we introduced uberPOOL, well, you see there's not as many bright colors. More people getting around the city in fewer cars, taking cars off the road. It looks like uberPOOL is working.
在舊金山, 還沒有 uberPOOL 之前 我們過去不管想去甚麼地方, 每個人都想開自己的車。 圖上顏色越鮮豔的地方,車子越多。 而就在我們推出 uberPOOL 共乘制度後, 你可以看到,顏色鮮豔的地方減少了 這表示大家同樣在城市中移動, 但更少車流量了, 這代表 uberPOOL 的 共乘制度是有效的。
And so we rolled it out in Los Angeles eight months ago. And since then, we've taken 7.9 million miles off the roads and we've taken 1.4 thousand metric tons of CO2 out of the air. But the part that I'm really --
所以,我們 8 個月前 在洛杉磯開始推行共乘, 從那之後,我們已經減少了 790 萬英哩的車程, 以及減少了 1400 公噸的 二氧化碳排放。 但,我最開心的是——
(Applause)
(掌聲)
But my favorite statistic -- remember, I'm from LA, I spent years of my life sitting behind the wheel, going, "How do we fix this?" -- my favorite part is that eight months later, we have added 100,000 new people that are carpooling every week.
但我最開心的數據—— 記得,我來自洛杉磯, 我一生中花了不少時間, 坐在擁擠的車潮中思考, 「我要如何解決這個問題呢?」—— 我最開心的部分是,八個月後, 我們每周有 10 萬個新人 參加共乘制度,
Now, in China everything is supersized, and so we're doing 15 million uberPOOL trips per month, that's 500,000 per day. And of course we're seeing that exponential growth happen. In fact, we're seeing it in LA, too. And when I talk to my team, we don't talk about, "Hey, well, 100,000 people carpooling every week and we're done." How do we get that to a million? And in China, well, that could be several million.
現在,在中國,每個數字都很龐大, 我們每個月有 1500 萬人次 使用 uberPOOL, 也就是每天有 50 萬人次。 當然,我們見證了這樣的成長, 事實上,洛杉磯的成長 也是有目共睹。 而當我與團隊討論時, 我們從來不會說, 「嘿,每周 10 萬人次的共乘數字, 我們達成目標了。」 而是討論,要如何達成 100 萬這個數字? 而在中國,可能會有好幾百萬。
And so uberPOOL is a very great solution for urban carpooling. But what about the suburbs?
所以,uberPOOL是市區共乘的 一個很好的解決方案, 但,郊區呢?
This is the street where I grew up in Los Angeles, it's actually a suburb called Northridge, California, and, well -- look, those mailboxes, they kind of just go on forever. And every morning at about the same time, cars roll of out their driveway, most of them, one person in the car, and they go to work, they go to their place of work. So the question for us is: well, how do we turn all of these commuter cars -- and literally there's tens of millions of them -- how do we turn all these commuter cars into shared cars?
這條街,是我在洛杉磯長大的街道, 它實際上是坐落在加州郊區的 Northridge , 而... 看看這些信箱,順著街道延綿不絕。 而每天同一時間的早晨, 車子從他們的車道開出來, 他們大部分車子裡只有一個人, 他們去上班,去他們的公司上班。 所以,我們的問題是: 我們要如何把這些通勤車—— 幾乎有好幾千萬台—— 我們要如何把這些通勤車轉換成共乘車?
Well, we have something for this that we recently launched called uberCOMMUTE. You get up in the morning, get ready for work, get your coffee, go to your car and you light up the Uber app, and all of a sudden, you become an Uber driver. And we'll match you up with one of your neighbors on your way to work and it's a really great thing.
我們最近發表了一個 叫做 uberCOMMUTE 的 app 應用程式。 你早上起來,準備上班, 拿了咖啡往你的車走去, 然後打開 Uber 的 app 一瞬間, 你就成為優步的駕駛員了。 然後,在你去工作的路上, 我們會為你自動配對和 你有同樣上班路徑的鄰居們。 而這真的是一件很棒的事。
There's just one hitch ... it's called regulation. So 54 cents a mile, what is that? Well, that is what the US government has determined that the cost of owning a car is per mile. You can pick up anybody in the United States and take them wherever they want to go at a moment's notice, for 54 cents a mile or less. But if you charge 60 cents a mile, you're a criminal. But what if for 60 cents a mile we could get half a million more people carpooling in Los Angeles? And what if at 60 cents a mile we could get 50 million people carpooling in the United States? If we could, it's obviously something we should do.
只有一個障礙要克服...... 它叫做法規。 每英哩 54 美分,這是甚麼? 這是美國政府 制定車輛駕駛每英哩的成本價。 在美國,你可以載任何人 到任何他們想去的地方, 但你只能收取每英哩 54 美分或更少的車資。 但,如果你每英哩收取 超過 60 美分,你就犯法了。 但如果每英哩 60 美分, 我們可以吸引超過 50 萬人 在洛杉磯加入共乘制度? 或如果每英哩 60 美分, 我們可以吸引超過 5000 萬人 在美國加入共乘制度呢? 如果我們可以做到, 這當然就要馬上做。
And so it goes back to the lesson of the jitney. If by 1915 this thing was taking off, imagine without the regulations that happened, if that thing could just keep going. How would our cities be different today? Would we have parks in the place of parking lots? Well, we lost that chance. But technology has given us another opportunity.
所以,這帶我們回到小公車的教訓。 如果在 1915 年, 共乘制剛開始起飛時, 想像一下,沒有這些規定的束縛, 會發生甚麼事? 如果這件事一直發展下去, 今日,我們的城市會有 甚麼不一樣的地方? 我們會不會有更多的 綠地公園來代替停車場? 是的,我們已失去一次機會。 但科技給我們另一個機會。
Now, I'm as excited as anybody else about self-driving cars but do we have to really wait five, 10 or even 20 years to make our new cities a reality? With the technology in our pockets today, and a little smart regulation, we can turn every car into a shared car, and we can reclaim our cities starting today.
我現在跟任何人都一樣, 非常期待自動駕駛的到來, 但我們真的必須再等 5年、10年甚至20年 才能讓我們的城市變好嗎? 今天,只要靠我們口袋裡的科技, 以及一點先進的法規, 我們可以把每台車變成共乘車, 而我們今天就可以開始 拯救我們的城市。
Thank you.
謝謝各位!
(Applause)
(掌聲)
Chris Anderson: Travis, thank you.
克里斯.安德森:崔維斯,謝謝你。
Travis Kalanick: Thank you.
崔維斯.卡蘭尼克:謝謝你。
CA: You know -- I mean the company you've built is absolutely astounding. You only just talked about a small part of it here -- a powerful part -- the idea of turning cars into public transport like that, it's cool. But I've got a couple other questions because I know they're out there on people's minds.
克里斯.安德森:你知道嗎, 你建立的公司真的很出色。 你只談論了一小部分—— 很激勵人心的部分—— 把大家的車變成 大眾運輸工具的這個想法 真的很酷! 但我有幾個問題, 因為我知道大家心中都很好奇。
So first of all, last week I think it was, I switched on my phone and tried to book an Uber and I couldn't find the app. You had this very radical, very bold, brave redesign.
首先,上禮拜,我認為這是..... 我打開手機,試著要從優步叫車, 但我發現,找不到app程式。 你準備大膽激進的重新設計。
TK: Sure.
崔維斯.卡蘭尼克:沒錯!
CA: How did it go? Did you notice other people not finding the app that day? Are you going to win people over for this redesign?
克里斯.安德森:進行的如何? 你有注意到,那天其他人 也找不到 app 程式嗎? 這次的重新設計, 會獲得大家的喜愛嗎?
TK: Well, first I should probably just say, well, what we were trying to accomplish. And I think if you know a little bit about our history, it makes a lot more sense. Which is, when we first got started, it was just black cars. It was literally you push a button and get an S-Class. And so what we did was almost what I would call an immature version of a luxury brand that looked like a badge on a luxury car.
崔維斯.卡蘭尼克:首先, 首先我想先談談, 我們心目中的目標。 如果你了解我們過去的歷史, 就會比較好理解。 我們一開始, 是使用黑色車。 你只要按下按鍵 就有豪華轎車接送。 而我們當時要做的就是 在客戶面前建立一種 豪華轎車的品牌形象。
And as we've gone worldwide and gone from S-Classes to auto rickshaws in India, it became something that was important for us to be more accessible, to be more hyperlocal, to be about the cities we were in and that's what you see with the patterns and colors. And to be more iconic, because a U doesn't mean anything in Sanskrit, and a U doesn't mean anything in Mandarin. And so that was a little bit what it was about.
向全球發展後, 我們從豪華轎車到 印度的黃包車, 我們開始更重視 如何更平易近人, 更加在地化, 更加地在乎我們居住的城市, 這就是現在公司 圖案和顏色的設計緣由, 因為單單一個「U」字 在古印度文是沒有意義的, 在中文,「U」也是沒有任何意義。 所以會這樣做是有一點這樣的原因的。
Now, when you first roll out something like that, I mean, your hands are sweating, you've got -- you know, you're a little worried. What we saw is a lot of people -- actually, at the beginning, we saw a lot more people opening the app because they were curious what they would find when they opened it. And our numbers were slightly up from what we expected.
當你第一次推出這樣的服務, 我的意思是,你會緊張到手心冒汗, 你會—— 有一點擔心。 我們看到的是很大一群人—— 實際上,剛開始,我們看到 很多人打開 app 應用程式, 因為他們很好奇 打開時會有甚麼發現。 而我們的數字比預期的 稍為高一點。
CA: OK, that's cool.
克里斯.安德森:這很酷。
Now, so you, yourself, are something of an enigma, I would say. Your supporters and investors, who have been with you the whole way, believe that the only chance of sort of taking on the powerful, entrenched interests of taxi industry and so forth, is to have someone who is a fierce, relentless competitor, which you've certainly proved to be.
現在,我可以這麼說, 你像是個傳奇人物。 你的支持者與投資者 這一路來一直跟隨著你, 他們相信只有 殘忍無情的競爭者 才能擔負起這重責大任的機會, 挑戰根深蒂固的計程車行業利益等等, 而你絕對是當之無愧的人選。
Some people feel you've almost taken that culture too far, and you know -- like a year or two ago there was a huge controversy where a lot of women got upset. How did it feel like inside the company during that period? Did you notice a loss of business? Did you learn anything from that?
有些人感覺你幾乎完全 背離了傳統文化, 像是1、2年前, 有很大的爭議, 很多的女士感覺相當失望。 公司在那段時間, 內部是甚麼感覺? 你有注意到生意上的損失嗎? 從這件事上, 你有學到甚麼教訓嗎?
TK: Well, look, I think -- I've been an entrepreneur since I've been in high school and you have -- In various different ways an entrepreneur will see hard times and for us, it was about a year and a half ago, and for us it was hard times, too.
崔維斯.卡蘭尼克:我認為—— 我在高中就已經是個企業家, 你在艱困時期, 一定會遇到各種不同的挑戰, 對我們而言, 一年半前的事件, 也是我們的艱困時期。
Now, inside, we felt like -- I guess at the end of the day we felt like we were good people doing good work, but on the outside that wasn't evident. And so there was a lot that we had to do to sort of -- We'd gone from a very small company -- I mean if you go literally two and a half years ago, our company was 400 people, and today it's 6,500. And so when you go through that growth, you have to sort of cement your cultural values and talk about them all of the time. And make sure that people are constantly checking to say, "Are we good people doing good work?" And if you check those boxes, the next part of that is making sure you're telling your story. And I think we learned a lot of lessons but I think at the end of it we came out stronger. But it was certainly a difficult period.
公司內部,我們覺得—— 我想,總有一天外面的人 會了解我們是一群 想有所貢獻的好人, 但這需要時間去證明。 所以,可以這麼說—— 我們還有很多方面要努力。 我們是從一個很小的企業開始的—— 我的意思是,兩年半前, 我們公司只有 400 人, 如今已經有 6500 人。 所以,當你經歷了整個成長的過程, 你就必須融合凝聚公司的文化價值, 並隨時談論它們。 確保大家時常捫心自問: 「我們是好人在做好事嗎?」 如果確認後, 下一步便是分享自己的故事。 而我認為過程我們學到了很多, 但這樣的磨練亦讓我們日益茁壯。 當然,有陣痛期是難免的。
CA: It seems to me, everywhere you turn, you're facing people who occasionally give you a hard time. Some Uber drivers in New York and elsewhere are mad as hell now because you changed the fees and they can barely -- they claim -- barely afford the deal anymore.
克里斯.安德森: 在我看來,不管你到哪, 你不時都要面對人們給你的挑戰。 一些在紐約或其它地方的優步駕駛人, 現在都快氣瘋了,因為你改變費率, 他們抗議他們幾乎無法接受合約了。
How -- You know, you said that you started this originally -- just the coolness of pressing a button and summoning a ride. This thing's taken off, you're affecting the whole global economy, basically, at this point. You're being forced to be, whether you want it or not, a kind of global visionary who's changing the world. I mean -- who are you? Do you want that? Are you ready to go with that and be what that takes?
你要如何—— 就如你說的,你創辦公司的初衷—— 僅是想簡單地按下按鈕 叫台車來搭而已。 但公司的成長卻快速起飛, 基本上,目前這個時間點上, 你正在影響全球經濟。 不論你是否願意, 你已經被迫成為 一個正在改變世界的全球夢想家。 我的意思是——你是誰? 你真的有想過會這樣嗎? 你有準備好並承擔這一切嗎?
TK: Well, there's a few things packed in that question, so --
崔維斯.卡蘭尼克:你一時間 問了好幾個問題,所以--
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
First is on the pricing side -- I mean, keep in mind, right? UberX, when we first started, was literally 10 or 15 percent cheaper than our black car product. It's now in many cities, half the price of a taxi. And we have all the data to show that the divers are making more per hour than they would as taxi drivers.
首先是定價的問題—— 我的意思是,大家記得嗎? UberX 剛起步的時候, 比我們的黑色車產品 差不多便宜10~15%。 現在, 這個價格在許多城市 是計程車收費的一半。 我們許多數據顯示, 所有的駕駛員每小時的收入 比他們當計程車司機時還要多。
What happens is when the price goes down, people are more likely to take Uber at different times of the day than they otherwise would have, and they're more likely to use it in places they wouldn't have before. And what that means for a driver is wherever he or she drops somebody off, they're much more likely to get a pickup and get back in. And so what that means is more trips per hour, more minutes of the hour where they're productive and actually, earnings come up.
當價格下降後, 人們就更喜歡搭優步了, 同一天不同的時間,搭的次數比之前還多, 他們似乎比之前更喜歡使用它。 而對一個駕駛而言,就是無論 他們把客戶載到那裡放下來, 他們幾乎是馬上又載一個, 又放一個。 意思就是, 每個小時的載客趟數變多了, 每小時的服務分鐘也變多了, 且實際上,收入也增加了。
And we have cities where we've done literally five or six price cuts and have seen those price cuts go up over time. So even in New York -- We have a blog post we call "4 Septembers" -- compare the earnings September after September after September. Same month every year. And we see the earnings going up over time as the price comes down. And there's a perfect price point -- you can't go down forever. And in those places where we bring the price down but we don't see those earnings pop, we bring the prices back up.
我們有一些城市, 已經降價 5~6 次, 而且隨著時間越久, 價格就降越多。 所以,即使是紐約-- 我們有一個部落格文章, 叫做「四個九月」—— 內容就是在九月時, 比較每年的收入狀況, 每年的同一個月。 而我們可以看到, 當價格下降後, 司機反而赚的越多。 到時會有一個完美的定價—— 你不能永遠降下去。 在有些地方,我們降價後, 但看不到收入增加, 我們就會再調整回來。
So that addresses that first part. And then the enigma and all of this -- I mean, the kind of entrepreneur I am is one that gets really excited about solving hard problems. And the way I like to describe it is it's kind of like a math professor. You know? If a math professor doesn't have hard problems to solve, that's a really sad math professor. And so at Uber we like the hard problems and we like getting excited about those and solving them. But we don't want just any math problem, we want the hardest ones that we can possibly find, and we want the one that if you solve it, there's a little bit of a wow factor.
所以,這解釋了你提問的第一部分。 至於你說的傳奇和這些—— 我的意思是,我是屬於那一種 解決困難問題會很興奮的企業家。 我喜歡這樣形容這件事, 就是有點像數學教授。 你懂嗎?如果一個數學教授 沒有困難的問題可以解決, 那他真是一個可悲的教授。 所以在優步,我們喜歡困難的問題, 而且我們對解決問題相當興奮。 但我們要的不是只有數學問題, 我們要的是我們 可以找到最難的問題, 並找出那個可以 解決問題的關鍵因子, 那才是我們最想要的。
CA: In a couple years' time -- say five years' time, I don't know when -- you roll out your incredible self-driving cars, at probably a lower cost than you currently pay for an Uber ride. What do you say to your army of a million drivers plus at that time?
克里斯.安德森:再幾年時間—— 大約五年時間吧,我不知道何時—— 你會推出驚人的無人駕駛車, 可能比你現在的優步車資還更便宜。 到時候,面對你的百萬 駕駛人軍隊時,你要怎麼說?
TK: Explain that again -- at which time?
崔維斯.卡蘭尼克: 可以再解釋一下,甚麼時間點?
CA: At the time when self-driving cars are coming --
克里斯.安德森: 當自動駕駛車時代來臨時——
TK: Sure, sure, sure. Sorry, I missed that.
克里斯.安德森:好的、好的、好的, 抱歉,我沒聽清楚。
CA: What do you say to a driver? TK: Well, look, I think the first part is it's going to take -- it's likely going to take a lot longer than I think some of the hype or media might expect. That's part one.
克里斯.安德森:面對他們你要怎麼說? 崔維斯.卡蘭尼克: 我認為第一部分是, 無人駕駛車還有一段 比風聲或媒體預測 還要長的時間要走。 這是第一部分。
Part two is it's going to also take -- there's going to be a long transition. These cars will work in certain places and not in others.
第二部分,會有一段過度時期, 這段時間也會很長。 這些車只能在某些地方運作, 不能在其它地方運作。
For us it's an interesting challenge, right? Because, well -- Google's been investing in this since 2007, Tesla's going to be doing it, Apple's going to be doing it, the manufacturers are going to be doing it. This is a world that's going to exist, and for good reason. A million people die a year in cars. And we already looked at the billions or even trillions of hours worldwide that people are spending sitting in them, driving frustrated, anxious. And think about the quality of life that improves when you give people their time back and it's not so anxiety-ridden. So I think there's a lot of good.
對我們而言, 這是很有趣的挑戰,對吧? 因為...... 谷歌從 2007 年就開始投資, 特斯拉也開始投資, 蘋果電腦也開始投資, 所有的製造商都開始投資了。 這是一個讓世界永續生存的好理由。 每年有100萬人死於車禍。 而且我們已經看到人類 每年要花幾十億甚至幾兆個小時 浪費在車子裡面,憂慮沮喪地開車。 想像一下, 當你把時間還給人們後, 讓他們不用再憂心忡忡, 生活品質會改善多少。 所以,我認為會有很多好處。
And so the way we think about it is that it's a challenge, but one for optimistic leadership, Where instead of resisting -- resisting technology, maybe like the taxi industry, or the trolley industry -- we have to embrace it or be a part of the future.
所以,我們認為這件事,是一個挑戰, 但,是個正向領導力的挑戰。 而不是對抗—— 拒絕科技, 像計程車業, 或電車業他們那樣抗拒—— 我們必須擁抱它或把它成為 我們未來的一部分。
But how do we optimistically lead through it? Are there ways to partner with cities? Are there ways to have education systems, vocational training, etc., for that transition period. It will take a lot longer than I think we all expect, especially that transition period. But it is a world that's going to exist, and it is going to be a better world.
但我們要如何樂觀地 領導度過這件事呢? 有沒有與城市 成為夥伴關係的方式? 在過渡期間,有沒有教育系統或 職業訓練的方式......等等? 這會比我認為大家期待 的時間還要長, 特別是過度時期。 但這才是我們要的世界, 而且是一個更美好的世界。
CA: Travis, what you're building is absolutely incredible and I'm hugely grateful to you for coming to TED and sharing so openly.
克里斯.安德森: 你的貢獻真的很了不起, 我非常榮幸能邀請你來 TED, 並這麼地敞開心胸地與我們分享。
Thank you so much. TK: Thank you very much.
非常謝謝你。 崔維斯.卡蘭尼克:非常謝謝你。
(Applause)
(掌聲)