In this talk today, I want to present a different idea for why investing in early childhood education makes sense as a public investment. It's a different idea, because usually, when people talk about early childhood programs, they talk about all the wonderful benefits for participants in terms of former participants, in preschool, they have better K-12 test scores, better adult earnings. Now that's all very important, but what I want to talk about is what preschool does for state economies and for promoting state economic development.
今天我要用不同的角度解釋 為何早期幼兒教育 算的上是一種公共投資 這是一種不同的見解 因為通常談到幼兒教育 都只想到孩子們的好處及利益 對於上過幼兒園的孩童來說 他們從小到大的成績都特別優異 長大後的薪水也較高 的確,這些都很重要 但是,我今天想談的 是幼兒教育對一個州的經濟影響 以及在經濟發展上的重要性
And that's actually crucial because if we're going to get increased investment in early childhood programs, we need to interest state governments in this. The federal government has a lot on its plate, and state governments are going to have to step up. So we have to appeal to them, the legislators in the state government, and turn to something they understand, that they have to promote the economic development of their state economy. Now, by promoting economic development, I don't mean anything magical. All I mean is, is that early childhood education can bring more and better jobs to a state and can thereby promote higher per capita earnings for the state's residents.
主要原因是 如果我們想增加 幼兒教育的投資 就必須讓州政府重視這件事情 聯邦政府要處理很多事情 因此州政府應該站出來 我們要呼籲 各州的立法機關 用他們能夠理解的方式 請機關想方設法 促進該州的經濟發展 現在,藉由促進經濟發展 這不是神話故事 我想說的是,幼兒教育 能為該州帶來更多、更好的工作 藉此提高 該州居民的平均所得
Now, I think it's fair to say that when people think about state and local economic development, they don't generally think first about what they're doing about childcare and early childhood programs. I know this. I've spent most of my career researching these programs. I've talked to a lot of directors of state economic development agencies about these issues, a lot of legislators about these issues. When legislators and others think about economic development, what they first of all think about are business tax incentives, property tax abatements, job creation tax credits, you know, there are a million of these programs all over the place. So for example, states compete very vigorously to attract new auto plants or expanded auto plants. They hand out all kinds of business tax breaks. Now, those programs can make sense if they in fact induce new location decisions, and the way they can make sense is, by creating more and better jobs, they raise employment rates, raise per capita earnings of state residents. So there is a benefit to state residents that corresponds to the costs that they're paying by paying for these business tax breaks.
我想大家都很清楚,當我們想到 州與地方的經濟發展時 沒有人會優先想到 兒童保育及教育 我了解,因為我終其一生在做這項研究 和許多州政府的經濟發展部門主管 及許多立法者 討論過這個議題 在大夥談到經濟發展時 他們第一個想到的 就是稅費獎勵方案、 財產稅減免、 創造工作職位稅務優惠...等等 有上百萬種這類的方案 舉例來說,州政府間競爭激烈 為了吸引汽車廠進駐或是擴建 他們會提出各式各樣的減稅方案 如果這些方案真的能增加設廠點 那麼一切都說得通 說得通的原因是 藉由增加更多、更好的工作機會 提高了就業率及平均所得 居民能因此獲得利益 他們繳稅給這些減稅方案 而能得到這個好處
My argument is essentially that early childhood programs can do exactly the same thing, create more and better jobs, but in a different way. It's a somewhat more indirect way. These programs can promote more and better jobs by, you build it, you invest in high-quality preschool, it develops the skills of your local workforce if enough of them stick around, and, in turn, that higher-quality local workforce will be a key driver of creating jobs and creating higher earnings per capita in the local community.
我的論點是,幼兒教育 也能達到同樣的目標 用另一種方式 來創造更多、更好的工作機會 只是比較間接一點 這些計畫可以促進更多的好工作 藉由建立、投資優質幼兒園 能增進地方勞工的技術 前提是有足夠的人留在當地 那麼這些高品質勞工 將會是創造當地社區 工作機會與提高所得的金鑰
Now, let me turn to some numbers on this. Okay. If you look at the research evidence -- that's extensive -- on how much early childhood programs affect the educational attainment, wages and skills of former participants in preschool as adults, you take those known effects, you take how many of those folks will be expected to stick around the state or local economy and not move out, and you take research on how much skills drive job creation, you will conclude, from these three separate lines of research, that for every dollar invested in early childhood programs, the per capita earnings of state residents go up by two dollars and 78 cents, so that's a three-to-one return. Now you can get much higher returns, of up to 16-to-one, if you include anti-crime benefits, if you include benefits to former preschool participants who move to some other state, but there's a good reason for focusing on these three dollars because this is salient and important to state legislators and state policy makers, and it's the states that are going to have to act. So there is this key benefit that is relevant to state policy makers in terms of economic development.
現在,來看看一些統計數據 你可以看到大量的研究證明 有上幼兒園的孩童 對於未來的學歷、薪資與技能 造成多大的影響 以這些實際狀況 估算看看,有多少人會留在家鄉 或是當地企業 而不會進都會區工作 然後看看他們的技能 能夠創造多少工作機會 你會在這三種研究中 得到一個結論—— 在幼兒教育中多投資 1 美元 該州居民的平均所得 就會成長 2.78 美元 因此這是三比一的報酬率 而且還能有高達十六比一的報酬率 如果把降低犯罪率也算進來 還有把在此就讀幼兒教育 後來搬到其它地區的人也算進來 我們有很好的理由著眼於這三美元 因為這對立法者 和制定州政策的人來說極其重要 州政府應該有所動作 因此對制定經濟發展政策的人來說 這項利益是十分關鍵的因素
Now, one objection you often hear, or maybe you don't hear it because people are too polite to say it, is, why should I pay more taxes to invest in other people's children? What's in it for me? And the trouble with that objection, it reflects a total misunderstanding of how much local economies involve everyone being interdependent. Specifically, the interdependency here is, is that there are huge spillovers of skills -- that when other people's children get more skills, that actually increases the prosperity of everyone, including people whose skills don't change. So for example, numerous research studies have shown if you look at what really drives the growth rate of metropolitan areas, it's not so much low taxes, low cost, low wages; it's the skills of the area. Particularly, the proxy for skills that people use is percentage of college graduates in the area. So when you look, for example, at metropolitan areas such as the Boston area, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Silicon Valley, these areas are not doing well economically because they're low-cost. I don't know if you ever tried to buy a house in Silicon Valley. It's not exactly a low-cost proposition. They are growing because they have high levels of skills. So when we invest in other people's children, and build up those skills, we increase the overall job growth of a metro area. As another example, if we look at what determines an individual's wages, and we do statistical exploration of that, what determines wages, we know that the individual's wages will depend, in part, on that individual's education, for example whether or not they have a college degree. One of the very interesting facts is that, in addition, we find that even once we hold constant, statistically, the effect of your own education, the education of everyone else in your metropolitan area also affects your wages. So specifically, if you hold constant your education, you stick in percentage of college graduates in your metro area, you will find that has a significant positive effect on your wages without changing your education at all. In fact, this effect is so strong that when someone gets a college degree, the spillover effects of this on the wages of others in the metropolitan area are actually greater than the direct effects. So if someone gets a college degree, their lifetime earnings go up by a huge amount, over 700,000 dollars. There's an effect on everyone else in the metro area of driving up the percentage of college graduates in the metro area, and if you add that up -- it's a small effect for each person, but if you add that up across all the people in the metro area, you actually get that the increase in wages for everyone else in the metropolitan area adds up to almost a million dollars. That's actually greater than the direct benefits of the person choosing to get education.
常常能聽到人們反對的聲音 或者你沒聽到,因為大家講得很含蓄 我為什麼要繳更多稅 來投資別人的小孩? 這跟我有什麼關係? 重點問題在於 它反應出人們完全不了解 地方經濟對相互依賴人們之間的影響 地方經濟對相互依賴人們之間的影響 特別是在這裡我們所說的相互依賴 指的是大量技職人口的外移-- 當別人的小孩有更多的技能 就能夠讓每個人都富裕 即使那些人的技能都未改變 舉例來說無數的研究報告指出 如果你檢視 影響大都市成長率的主因 其實跟較低的稅額、支出、薪資關係不大 而是和該地區的技能有關 尤其是人們所雇用的代工 等於該地區學院畢業生的比率 比如說,當你在像波士頓 明尼亞波利.聖保羅和矽谷等大都市 這些地區在經濟上的表現不佳 因為它們很廉價 不知道你有沒有試過在矽谷買房子 其實根本不是廉價的問題 他們會成長是因為有很強的技能 因此當我們投資別人的小孩 然後發展那些技能,我們就能全方位地 增加大都市的工作機會 另一個例子是 當我們尋找影響一個人薪資的原因 然後用統計來找出決定薪資的關鍵 我們就會發現,個人薪資 會受到個人學歷的影響 好比說有沒有大學文憑 很有趣的是 我們還發現了,即使在數據上 去除學歷所造成的影響 大都市中其他人的學歷 還是會影響你的薪資 具體來說如果你的學歷不變 但是大都市中大專畢業生比率提高 你會發現,即使自己的學歷依舊 還是會對你的薪資 帶來很明顯、正向影響 事實上,這個影響大到 當某個人拿到學院學位 就會造成大都市中 其他人薪資的成長 甚至大於對他們自身的影響 因此如果有某個人拿到學院學歷 他們的終身所得 會大幅成長超過七十萬美元 大都市中大專院校畢業生比例提升 對大都市裡的其他人都有影響 如果加總起來——對每一個人來說雖小 但是如果加總對整體都市人口的影響 你會發現每個人的薪資都上升了 合計大約有上百萬美元 這其實比一個人選擇要接受教育 直接得到的好處還多
Now, what's going on here? What can explain these huge spillover effects of education? Well, let's think about it this way. I can be the most skilled person in the world, but if everyone else at my firm lacks skills, my employer is going to find it more difficult to introduce new technology, new production techniques. So as a result, my employer is going to be less productive. They will not be able to afford to pay me as good wages. Even if everyone at my firm has good skills, if the workers at the suppliers to my firm do not have good skills, my firm is going to be less competitive competing in national and international markets. And again, the firm that's less competitive will not be able to pay as good wages, and then, particularly in high-tech businesses, they're constantly stealing ideas and workers from other businesses. So clearly the productivity of firms in Silicon Valley has a lot to do with the skills not only of the workers at their firm, but the workers at all the other firms in the metro area. So as a result, if we can invest in other people's children through preschool and other early childhood programs that are high-quality, we not only help those children, we help everyone in the metropolitan area gain in wages and we'll have the metropolitan area gain in job growth.
現在,發生了什麼事? 有什麼可以解釋 教育上龐大的溢出效應? 讓我們用另一種方式來思考看看 假設我是世界上技術最好的人 但是我公司裡的每個人都很缺乏技術 我的老闆就會發現 要引進新的生產技術很難 結果就是老闆會得到較少的生產量 他們就沒有辦法付高一點的薪水給我 即使我公司裡的每個人都有很好的技術 如果我的原料供應商的員工 技術不好 我的公司也會缺乏競爭力 無法在國內或國際間的市場競爭 同樣地,如果公司缺乏競爭力 就沒有辦法付出較好的薪水 結果就變成——尤其是高科技的產業 會不斷地偷別人的點子和員工 因此,很顯然矽谷的公司生產力 不只與他們公司員工的技術有關 也和這個大都市其它所有公司的員工有關 因此如果你可以透過幼兒園 以及高品質的幼兒教育 來投資別人的小孩 我們不只幫助那些孩子 還幫助了在都市中的每個人 能有更好的薪水 也能在都市中有更多的工作機會
Another objection used sometimes here to invest in early childhood programs is concern about people moving out. So, you know, maybe Ohio's thinking about investing in more preschool education for children in Columbus, Ohio, but they're worried that these little Buckeyes will, for some strange reason, decide to move to Ann Arbor, Michigan, and become Wolverines. And maybe Michigan will be thinking about investing in preschool in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and be worried these little Wolverines will end up moving to Ohio and becoming Buckeyes. And so they'll both underinvest because everyone's going to move out. Well, the reality is, if you look at the data, Americans aren't as hyper-mobile as people sometimes assume. The data is that over 60 percent of Americans spend most of their working careers in the state they were born in, over 60 percent. That percentage does not vary much from state to state. It doesn't vary much with the state's economy, whether it's depressed or booming, it doesn't vary much over time. So the reality is, if you invest in kids, they will stay. Or at least, enough of them will stay that it will pay off for your state economy.
另一個反對因素通常是 人口的外移會影響 人們投資幼兒教育的意願 也許俄亥俄州會想投資 更多的幼兒園 給在俄亥俄州哥倫布市的小孩 但是他們擔心小小七葉樹(俄亥俄州人) 可能會因為某種奇怪的原因 決定搬到密西根州的安娜堡 然後變成貂熊(密西根人) 也許密西根人會想要投資 當地安娜堡的幼兒園 然後密西根人就會擔心 小貂熊會搬到俄刻俄州當七葉樹 因此他們都因為擔心 人口外移而投資不足 然而,事實上數據顯示 美國人並非如大家所想得那麼愛搬家 數據顯示超過六成的美國人 終其一生 都在他們出生的州裡工作,有超過六成! 每個州的數據差別不大 也和各州的經濟影響不大 不管景氣是好是壞 時間所造成的影響也不大 事實是如果你想投資孩童 他們會想留在家鄉 至少,大部份的人會留下來 他們會為家鄉的經濟盡一份心力
Okay, so to sum up, there is a lot of research evidence that early childhood programs, if run in a high-quality way, pay off in higher adult skills. There's a lot of research evidence that those folks will stick around the state economy, and there's a lot of evidence that having more workers with higher skills in your local economy pays off in higher wages and job growth for your local economy, and if you calculate the numbers for each dollar, we get about three dollars back in benefits for the state economy. So in my opinion, the research evidence is compelling and the logic of this is compelling. So what are the barriers to getting it done?
總而言之有許多研究證明了 幼兒教育如果能有好的品質 就能夠帶來成人良好的技能 有很多研究指出 這些人會留在家鄉 也有很多研究指出,在當地 如果有更多高技能的員工 就能夠帶來更高的薪水 和當地更多的工作機會 如果你仔細計算 每一美元能得到的回饋 將是三美元 因此我認為研究的可信度高 而且這一整套邏輯也很有說服力 那麼達到目標有哪些阻礙呢?
Well, one obvious barrier is cost. So if you look at what it would cost if every state government invested in universal preschool at age four, full-day preschool at age four, the total annual national cost would be roughly 30 billion dollars. So, 30 billion dollars is a lot of money. On the other hand, if you reflect on that the U.S.'s population is over 300 million, we're talking about an amount of money that amounts to 100 dollars per capita. Okay? A hundred dollars per capita, per person, is something that any state government can afford to do. It's just a simple matter of political will to do it. And, of course, as I mentioned, this cost has corresponding benefits. I mentioned there's a multiplier of about three, 2.78, for the state economy, in terms of over 80 billion in extra earnings. And if we want to translate that from just billions of dollars to something that might mean something, what we're talking about is that, for the average low-income kid, that would increase earnings by about 10 percent over their whole career, just doing the preschool, not improving K-12 or anything else after that, not doing anything with college tuition or access, just directly improving preschool, and we would get five percent higher earnings for middle-class kids. So this is an investment that pays off in very concrete terms for a broad range of income groups in the state's population and produces large and tangible benefits.
最明顯的就是金錢 如果每個州政府全面投資 四歲孩童、全天候的幼兒園 要花多少錢 每年的國家支出總額大約是 三百億美元 三百億美元很多 另一方面,換算看看 美國的總人口數高達三億人 我們所說的總金額 大約是每人平均一百美元 每人平均一百美元 這是每個國家都能夠負擔得起的 這只是一個簡單的政策 當然,如我剛才所提到的 這項支出能帶來好處 我提到大概會為州的經濟 帶來三倍,即 2.78 倍的效益 超過八百億的額外所得 如果你想要把十億美元 換算成某樣東西 我們指的是每一位低所得的孩童 在職涯中都會增加大約 10% 的所得 我們只是多做了幼兒園的部份 而不是改善從幼兒園到高中的十二年教育 不是職校的學費或入學方式 只要直接改善幼兒園 就會為中產階級的孩童增加 5% 的所得 因此這是一項投資 是用非常具體的方式 來投資各個階層的州民 還能製造三倍的好處
Now, that's one barrier. I actually think the more profound barrier is the long-term nature of the benefits from early childhood programs. So the argument I'm making is, is that we're increasing the quality of our local workforce, and thereby increasing economic development. Obviously if we have a preschool with four-year-olds, we're not sending these kids out at age five to work in the sweatshops, right? At least I hope not. So we're talking about an investment that in terms of impacts on the state economy is not going to really pay off for 15 or 20 years, and of course America is notorious for being a short term-oriented society. Now one response you can make to this, and I sometimes have done this in talks, is people can talk about, there are benefits for these programs in reducing special ed and remedial education costs, there are benefits, parents care about preschool, maybe we'll get some migration effects from parents seeking good preschool, and I think those are true, but in some sense they're missing the point.
但是還有一個阻礙 我認為這影響更為深遠 就是幼兒教育中的長期自然效益 我所說的論點是 我們增加當地生產力的品質 因而帶動經濟成長 很顯然,如果我們提供 四歲孩童就讀的幼兒園 我們就不會送五歲的孩子 去血汗工廠當童工,對吧? 至少我希望如此 因此我們所談的投資 能夠影響當地經濟 並不需要負擔十五到二十年 當然美國人是短視近利的社會 這件事眾所皆知 現在你所能做的是 我有時會在演講中這麼做 那就是大家一起討論 減少特殊教育和補救教育的支出 能有好處。家長都關心幼兒園 當他們在尋找優良幼兒園時 也許能提高人口移入的可能 我這些都是會發生的 但是人們常忽略了這一點
Ultimately, this is something we're investing in now for the future. And so what I want to leave you with is what I think is the ultimate question. I mean, I'm an economist, but this is ultimately not an economic question, it's a moral question: Are we willing, as Americans, are we as a society still capable of making the political choice to sacrifice now by paying more taxes in order to improve the long-term future of not only our kids, but our community? Are we still capable of that as a country? And that's something that each and every citizen and voter needs to ask themselves. Is that something that you are still invested in, that you still believe in the notion of investment? That is the notion of investment. You sacrifice now for a return later.
最終 我們都是為了未來而投資現在 我想要留給你的是 一個很基本的問題 我是經濟學家 但這在本質上並非經濟上的問題 而是道德問題: 身為美國人,我們是否願意 或身為社會的一員 我們是否能做提出政策——犧牲現在 付出高一點的稅 來改善我們孩子長遠的未來 以及我們的社區? 身為一個國家,我們是否做得到? 每個市民與選民 都該捫心自問 這是你還在投資 並且相信的投資概念嗎? 這是投資概念 你為了未來的報酬而犧牲現在
So I think the research evidence on the benefits of early childhood programs for the local economy is extremely strong. However, the moral and political choice is still up to us, as citizens and as voters.
因此我認為研究證明 幼兒教育對當地經濟 能夠帶來極大的利益 然而,要做一個道德 還是政治上的選擇 是由身為市民與選民的我們來決定
Thank you very much. (Applause)
謝謝大家(鼓掌)