I have a two-year-old daughter named Naya who is under the mistaken impression that this conference is named in honor of her father.
Imam dvogodišnju kćer imena Naya koja je pod krivim dojmom da je ova konferencija nazvana u čast njenom ocu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Who am I to contradict my baby girl?
Tko sam ja da se protivim svojoj curici?
As many of you know, there's something about becoming a parent that concentrates the mind on long-term problems like climate change. It was the birth of my daughter that inspired me to launch this climate organization, in order to counteract the excessive polarization of this issue in the United States, and to find a conservative pathway forward. Yes, folks, a Republican climate solution is possible, and you know what? It may even be better.
Kao što svi znate, ima nešto u tome kada postanete roditelj što koncentrira um na dugoročne probleme kao što su klimatske promjene. Rođenje moje kćeri inspiriralo me da lansiram ovu klimatsku organizaciju, kako bih se borio protiv pretjerane polarizacije ovog problema u Sjedinjenim državama, i kako bih našao konzervativni put naprijed. Da, ljudi, republikansko klimatsko rješenje je moguće, i znate što? Možda je čak i bolje.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Let me try to prove that to you.
Dajte da vam pokušam dokazati to.
What we really need is a killer app to climate policy. In the technology world, a killer app is an application so transformative that it creates its own market, like Uber. In the climate world, a killer app is a new solution so promising that it can break through the seemingly insurmountable barriers to progress. These include the psychological barrier. Climate advocates have long been encouraging their fellow citizens to make short-term sacrifices now for benefits that accrue to other people in other countries 30 or 40 years in the future. It just doesn't fly because it runs contrary to basic human nature.
Ono što zaista trebamo je super aplikacija za klimatsku politiku. U tehnološkom svijetu super aplikacija je aplikacija toliko transformativna da stvara vlastito tržište, kao Uber. U klimatskom svijetu, super aplikacija je novo rješenje koje toliko obećava da može svladati naizgled nesavladive prepreke da bi napredovala. Ovo uključuje i psihološku barijeru. Klimatski zagovornici dugo potiču svoje sugrađane da rade kratkoročne žrtve sada za dobrobit koja će nastati za druge ljude u drugim zemljama 30 ili 40 godina u budućnosti. To jednostavno ne prolazi, jer je suprotno od ljudske prirode.
Next is the geopolitical barrier. Under the current rules of global trade, countries have a strong incentive to free ride off the emissions reductions of other nations, instead of strengthening their own programs. This has been the curse of every international climate negotiations, including Paris. Finally, we have the partisan barrier. Even the most committed countries -- Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada -- are nowhere near reducing emissions at the required scale and speed. Not even close. And the partisan climate divide is far more acute here in the United States. We are fundamentally stuck, and that is why we need a killer app of climate policy to break through each of these barriers.
Sljedeća je geopolitička barijera. Pod trenutnim pravilima globalne razmjene, zemlje imaju snažan poticaj da se švercaju na smanjenje zagađenja drugih nacija, umjesto da jačaju vlastite programe. Ovo je bilo prokletstvo svakih međunarodnih klimatskih pregovora, uključujući i Pariz. Napokon, imamo stranačku prepreku. Čak i najposvećenije zemlje -- Njemačka, Velika Britanija, Kanada -- nisu ni blizu smanjivanju zagađenja na potrebnoj razini i brzini. Nisu ni blizu. I stranačka klimatska podjela je još akutnija ovdje u SAD-u. Doslovno smo zaglavili, i zato trebamo super aplikaciju za klimatsku politiku kako bismo probili sve ove barijere.
I'm convinced that the road to climate progress in the United States runs through the Republican Party and the business community. So in launching the Climate Leadership Council, I started by reaching out to a who's who of Republican elder statesmen and business leaders, including James Baker and George Schultz, the two most respected Republican elder statesmen in America; Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw, the two most respected conservative economists in the country; and Henry Paulson and Rob Walton, two of the most successful and admired business leaders. Together, we co-authored "The Conservative Case For Carbon Dividends." This represents the first time that Republican leaders put forth a concrete market-based climate solution.
Uvjeren sam da put napretka po pitanju klime u SAD-u leži u Republikancima i poslovnoj zajednici. U lansiranju Klimatskog vijeća za vodstvo, počeo sam se javljati bitnjini republikanskim političarima, i poslovnim vođama, uključujući Jamesa Bakera i Georgea Schultza, dva najpoštovanija starija republikanska političara u Americi; Martina Feldsteina i Grega Mankiwa, dva najpoštovanija konzervativna ekonomista u zemlji; i Henry Paulsona i Roba Waltona, dva najuspješnija i najpoznatija poslovna vođe. Zajedno, stvorili smo "Konzervativni slučaj za ugljične dividende." Ovo predstavlja prvi put da su republikanski vođe predstavili konkretan plan za klimatske promjene namijenjen tržištu.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
We presented our plan at the White House two weeks after President Trump moved in. Almost every leading editorial board in the country has since endorsed our plan, and Fortune 100 companies from a wide range of industries are now getting behind it. So by now you're probably wondering, what exactly is this plan?
Predstavili smo svoj plan u Bijeloj Kući dva tjedna nakon što se uselio predsjednik Trump. Gotovo svaki nadzorni odbor u zemlji je od onda podržao naš plan, i tvrtke sa Fortune 100 liste iz širokog raspona industrija sada staju iza njega. Sad se već sigurno pitate, kakav je to plan?
Well, our carbon dividends solution is based on four pillars. The first is a gradually rising carbon tax. Although capitalism is a wonderful system, like many operating systems, it's prone to bugs, which, in this case, are called "market failures." By far the largest is that market prices fail to take social and environmental costs into account. That means every market transaction is based on incorrect information. This fundamental bug of capitalism, more than any other single factor, is to blame for our climate predicament.
Pa, naše riješenje za ugljične dividende stoji na četiri stupca. Prvi je polako podizati porez na emisije ugljika. Iako je kapitalizam divan sustav, kao i mnogi operativni sustav, sklon je greškama, koji se, u ovom slučaju, zovu "tržišni promašaji." Najveći je taj da tržišne cijene ne uzimaju u obzir društveni i okolišni trošak. To znači da je svaka tržišna transakcija zasnovana na krivim informacijama. Ova temeljna greška kapitalizma, više nego bilo koji drugi faktor, kriva je za naše probleme s klimom.
Now in theory, this should be an easy problem to fix. Economists agree that the best solution is to put a price on the carbon content of fossil fuels, otherwise known as a carbon tax. This would discourage carbon emissions in every single economic transaction, every day of the year. However, a carbon tax by itself has proven to be unpopular and a political dead end. The answer is to return all the money raised directly to citizens, in the form of equal monthly dividends. This would transform an unpopular carbon tax into a popular and populist solution, and it would also solve the underlying psychological barrier that we discussed, by giving everyone a concrete benefit in the here and now.
U teoriji, ovo bi trebalo biti lako riješiti. Ekonomisti se slažu da je najbolje rješenje da se stavi cijena na ugljik u fosilnim gorivima, inače znan kao porez na ugljik. To bi obeshrabrilo emisije ugljika u svakoj ekonomskoj transakciji svakog dana u godini. No ipak, porez na ugljik nije popularan i politička je slijepa ulica. Odgovor je vratiti sav prikupljeni novac direktno građanima, u obliku jednakih mjesečnih naknada. To bi transformiralo nepopularni porez u popularno i populističko rješenje, i također bi riješilo psihološku barijeru o kojoj smo pričali, dajući svima konkretnu dobrobit sada i ovdje.
And these benefits would be significant. Assuming a carbon tax rate that starts at 40 dollars per ton, a family of four would receive 2,000 dollars per year from the get-go. According to the US Treasury Department, the bottom 70 percent of Americans would receive more in dividends than they would pay in increased energy prices. That means 223 million Americans would win economically from solving climate change. And that --
I te blagodati bile bi značajne. Pretpostavimo da porez kreće od 40 dolara po toni, obitelj od četvoro bi dobila 2.000 dolara godišnje u startu. Prema Američkoj riznici donjih 70 posto Amerikanaca dobilo bi više u dividendama nego bi platili u povećanim cijenama energenata. To znači da bi 223 milijuna Amerikanaca bilo na ekonomskom dobitku od rješavanja klimatskih promjena. I to --
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
is revolutionary, and could fundamentally alter climate politics.
je revolucionarno, i moglo bi iz korijena promijeniti klimatsku politiku.
But there's another revolutionary element here. The amount of the dividend would grow as the carbon tax rate increases. The more we protect our climate, the more our citizens benefit. This creates a positive feedback loop, which is crucial, because the only way we will reach our long-term emission-reduction goals is if the carbon tax rate goes up every year.
Ali postoji tu još jedan revolucionarni element. Količina dividendi rasla bi kako bi rastao porez na ugljik. Što više štitimo klimu, više građana ima dobrobiti. To stvara pozitivne povratne informacije, što je ključno, jer jedini način da dođemo do naših dugoročnih ciljeva za smanjenje emisije je ako visina poreza raste svake godine.
The third pillar of our program is eliminating regulations that are no longer needed once a carbon dividends plan is enacted. This is a key selling point to Republicans and business leaders. So why should we trade climate regulations for a price on carbon? Well, let me show you. Our plan would achieve nearly twice the emissions reductions of all Obama-era climate regulations combined, and nearly three times the new baseline after President Trump repeals all of those regulations. That assumes a carbon tax starting at 40 dollars per ton, which translates into roughly an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas. Our plan by itself would meet the high end of America's commitment under the Paris Climate Agreement, and as you can see, the emissions reductions would continue over time. This illustrates the power of a conservative climate solution based on free markets and limited government. We would end up with less regulation and far less pollution at the same time, while helping working-class Americans get ahead. Doesn't that sound like something we could all support?
Treći stup našeg programa je eliminiranje propisa koji više nisu potrebni kada plan sa ugljičnim dividendama počne djelovati. To je ključna točka u kojoj pridobivamo Republikance i poslovne vođe. Zašto bismo mijenjali klimatske odrednice za cijenu na ugljiku? Pa, dozvolite da vam pokažem. Cilj nam je postići gotovo dvostruko smanjenje emisija u odnosu na sve Obamine odredbe zajedno, i tri puta više od nove osnove nakon što predsjednik Trump povuče sve te odredbe. To podrazumijeva porez na ugljik od 40 dolara po toni, odnosno 36 centa po galonu goriva. Naš plan sam po sebi bi dosegao američke obveze po Pariškom klimatskom ugovoru, i kao što možete vidjeti smanjenje emisija nastavilo bi se kroz vrijeme. Ovo ilustrira moć konzervativnog rješenja za klimatske probleme temeljene na slobodnom tržištu i limitiranom upravljanju. Završili bi sa manje propisa i puno manje zagađenja u isto vrijeme, dok bi pomagali američkoj radničkoj klasi da napreduje. Ne zvuči li ovo kao nešto što bi svi mogli poduprijeti?
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
The fourth and final pillar of our program is a new climate domino effect, based on border carbon adjustments. Now that may sound complicated, but it, too, is revolutionary, because it provides us a whole new strategy to reach a global price on carbon, which is ultimately what we need. Let me show you an example. Suppose Country A adopts a carbon dividends plan, and Country B does not. Well, to level the playing field and protect the competitiveness of its industries, Country A would tax imports from Country B based on their carbon content. Fair enough. But here's where it gets really interesting, because the money raised at the border would increase the dividends going to the citizens of Country A. Well, how long do you think it would take the public in Country B to realize that that money should be going to them, and to push for a carbon dividends plan in their own land? Add a few more countries, and we get a new climate domino effect.
Četvrti i posljednji stup našeg programa je domino efekt nove klime temeljen na graničnom prilagođavanju ugljika. Sad, to možda zvuči komplicirano, ali i to je revolucionarno, jer nam daje čitavu novu strategiju da dosegnemo globalnu cijenu ugljika, što je ono što nam na kraju treba. Dopustite da vam pokažem primjer. Pretpostavimo da zemlja A prihvati plan ugljičnih dividendi, i zemlja B to ne učini. Da bismo izjednačili teren i zaštitili konkurentnost svoje industrije zemlja A oporezuje uvoz zemlje B ovisno o sastavu ugljika. Pošteno. Ali sada stvari postaju zanimljive, jer novac skupljen na granici povećava dividende koje idu građanima zemlje A. Pa, koliko bi vremena trebalo javnosti u zemlji B da shvati da taj novac treba ići njima, i da bi trebali podržati ugljične dividende u svojoj zemlji? Dodajte još par zemalja, i imamo klimatski domino efekt.
Once one major country or region adopts carbon dividends with border carbon adjustments, other countries are compelled to follow suit. One by one the dominoes fall. And this domino effect could start anywhere. My preference, strongly, is the United States, but it could also start in the United Kingdom, in Germany or another European country, or even in China.
Kada jedna velika zemlja ili regija prihvati ugljične dividende sa prilagodbama na granici, sve ostale zemlje moraju slijediti. Jedna po jedna, domine padaju. I ovaj domino efekt može početi bilo gdje. Moja preferencija su Sjedinjene Američke Države ali može početi i u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu, Njemačkoj ili bilo kojoj Europskoj zemlji, ili čak u Kini.
Let's take China as an example. China is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but what its leaders care even more about is transitioning their economy to consumer-led economic development. Well, nothing could do more to hasten that transition than giving every Chinese citizen a monthly dividend. In fact, this is the only policy solution that would enable China to meet its environmental and economic goals at the same time.
Uzmimo Kinu kao primjer. Kina je posvećena smanjenju emisije stakleničkih plinova, ali ono za što se njeni vođe još više brinu je tranzicija ekonomije u ekonomski razvoj vođen kupcima. Pa, ništa ne bi moglo ubrzati tu tranziciju nego davanje svakom građaninu Kine mjesečnu dividendu. Zapravo, ovo je jedino rješenje koje bi omogućilo da Kina dosegne svoj okolišni i ekonomski cilj u isto vrijeme.
That's why this is the killer app of climate policy, because it would enable us to overcome each of the barriers we discussed earlier: the psychological barrier, the partisan barrier, and, as we've just seen, the geopolitical barrier. All we need is a country to lead the way. And one method of finding what you're looking for is to take out an ad. So let's read this one together.
Zato je ovo super aplikacija za klimatsku politiku, jer bi omogućilo da savladamo sve barijere o kojima smo pričali prije, psihološku, stranačku i kako smo vidjeli geopolitičku barijeru. Sve što trebamo je zemlja koja će nas povesti. I jedna metoda pronalaska onoga što tražite je da date oglas. Pročitajmo ovaj skupa.
Wanted: country to pioneer carbon dividends plan. Cost to country: zero. Starting date: as soon as possible. Advantages: most effective climate solution, popular and populist, pro-growth and pro-business, shrinks government and helps the working class. Additional compensation: gratitude of current and future generations, including my daughter.
Traži se: zemlja da predvodi plan za ugljične dividende. Trošak za zemlju: nula. Početni datum: što prije. Prednosti: najučinkovitije rješenje za klimatske promjene, popularno i populističko, za rad i razvoj poslovanja, smanjuje vladu i pomaže radničkoj klasi. Dodatna kompenzacija: zahvalnost trenutnih i budućih generacija, uključujući moju kćer.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
Chris Anderson: Just one question for you, Ted. I'm actually not sure I've seen a conservative get a standing O at TED before that. That's pretty cool. The logic seems really powerful, but some people you talk to in politics say it's hard to imagine this still getting through Congress. How are you feeling about momentum behind this?
Chris Anderson: Samo jedno pitanje za tebe, Ted. Nisam siguran da sam do sada vidio konzervativca koji je dobio ovacije na TED-u. To je prilično cool. Logika se čini snažna, ali ljudi s kojima pričaš u politici kažu da je teško zamisliti da će ovo proći Kongres. Kako se osjećaš u vezi zamaha iza ovoga?
Ted Halstead: So I understand that many are very pessimistic about what's happening in the United States with President Trump. I'm less pessimistic; here's why. The actions of this White House, the early actions on climate, are just the first move in a complex game of climate chess. So far it's been a repeal-only strategy; the pressure is going to mount for a replacement program, which is where we come in. And there are three reasons why, which I'll go through real quickly.
Ted Halstead: Razumijem da su mnogi pesimistični vezano uz to što se događa u SAD-u sa predsjednikom Trumpom. Ja sam manje pesimističan, evo zašto. Potezi koje Bijela Kuća vuče, rani potezi vezani uz klimu, samo su prvi potez u igri klimatskog šaha. Za sada je to bila samo strategija opoziva: pritisak će rasti za zamjenski program, gdje mi dolazimo na red. I tu su tri razloga zašto, kroz koje ću brzo proći.
One, the business community is fundamentally parting ways with the White House on climate change. In fact, we're finding a number of Fortune 100 companies supporting our program. Within two months, we're going to be announcing some really surprising names coming out in favor of this program. Two, there is no issue in American politics where there's a more fundamental gap between the Republican base and the Republican leadership than climate change. And three, thinking of this analogy of chess, the big decision up ahead is: Does the administration stay in Paris? Well, let's pan it out both ways. If it stays in Paris, as many are pushing for in the administration, well then that begs a question: What's the plan? We have the plan. But if they don't stay in Paris, the international pressure will be overwhelming. Our Secretary of State will be asking other countries for NATO contributions, and they'll be saying, "No, give us our Paris commitment. Come through on your commitments, we'll come through on ours."
Prvo, poslovnjaci se razdvajaju od Bijele Kuće po pitanju klimatskih promjena. Zapravo, utvrdili smo da puno Fortune 100 tvrtki podržava naš program. Unutar dva mjeseca, najavit ćemo zaista iznenađujuća imena koja podržavaju ovaj program. Dva, ne postoji problem u Američkoj politici gdje postoji veći razdor između Republikanske baze i Republikanskog vodstva od klimatske promjene. I treće, razmišljajući o ovoj analogiji šaha, velika odluka ispred nas je: Da li administracija ostaje u Parizu? Pa sagledajmo to s obje strane. Ako ostane u Parizu, za što mnogi lobiraju u administraciji, onda to postavlja pitanje: Koji je plan? Imamo plan. Ali ako ne ostanu u Parizu, međunarodni pritisak postaje prevelik. Naš Državni tajnik pitat će druge zemlje za doprinose NATO-u, i oni će reći, "Ne, dajte nam našu obvezu iz Pariza. Ispunite svoje obveze i mi ćemo ispuniti svoje."
So, international, business and even the Republican base will all be calling for a Republican replacement plan. And, hopefully, we've provided one.
Dakle, internacionala, poslovnjaci, pa čak i Republikanska baza tražit će zamjenski plan za Republikance. I nadam se da smo pružili taj plan.
CA: Thank you so much, Ted.
CA: Hvala puno, Ted.
TH: Thank you, Chris.
TH: Hvala ti, Chris.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)