Two frogs are minding their own business in the swamp when WHAM— they’re kidnapped.
兩隻青蛙正在沼澤地裡各忙各的 這時「砰」地一聲,牠們被綁架了 牠們被抓來廚房 成了惡廚的俘虜
They come to in a kitchen, captives of a menacing chef. He boils up a pot of water and lobs one of the frogs in. But it’s having none of this. The second its toes hit the scalding water it jumps right out the window.
惡廚煮了一鍋熱水 把一隻青蛙丟進鍋裡 但青蛙沒上當 牠的腳趾一碰到滾燙的水 牠就直接跳出窗外了
The chef refills the pot, but this time he doesn’t turn on the heat. He plops the second frog in, and this frog’s okay with that. The chef turns the heat on, very low, and the temperature of water slowly rises. So slowly that the frog doesn’t notice. In fact, it basks in the balmy water. Only when the surface begins to bubble does the frog realize: it’s toast.
廚師又把鍋裝滿水 但這次他沒有開火 他把第二隻青蛙丟進鍋裡 這隻青蛙沒啥反應 廚師打開小火,慢慢增加水溫 慢到青蛙都沒注意到 事實上,牠正沐浴在溫暖的水中 一直到當水面開始冒泡時 青蛙才意識到:牠已熟了
What’s funny about this parable is that it’s not scientifically true... for frogs. In reality, a frog will detect slowly heating water and leap to safety. Humans, on the other hand, are a different story. We’re perfectly happy to sit in the pot and slowly turn up the heat, all the while insisting it isn’t our hand on the dial, arguing about whether we can trust thermometers, and questioning— even if they’re right, does it matter?
這則寓言有趣的是,對青蛙來說 以科學的角度來看是不正確的 實際上,青蛙能察覺慢慢加熱的水 然後跳到安全的地方 但人類可就不是這麼回事了 我們很享受坐在鍋裡 慢慢地把火調大 始終堅持說不是我們的手在控溫 爭論我們是否能相信溫度計 然後質疑就算溫度計正確,有關係嗎?
It does.
確實有關係
Since 1850, global average temperatures have risen by 1 degree Celsius. That may not sound like a lot, but it is.
從 1850 年以來 全球平均氣溫上升了 1 ℃ 聽起來上升不多,但其實很多
Why? 1 degree is an average. Many places have already gotten much warmer than that. Some places in the Arctic have already warmed 4 degrees. If global average temperatures increase 1 more degree, the coldest nights in the Arctic might get 10 degrees warmer. The warmest days in Mumbai might get 5 degrees hotter.
為什麼?因為 1 ℃ 是平均值 很多地方上升的溫度 早已遠遠高出這個數字 北極一些地方已經升溫 4 ℃ 如果全球平均氣溫再上升 1 ℃ 北極最冷的夜晚可能會再升溫 10 ℃ 孟買最熱的日子可能會再升溫 5 ℃
So how did we get here?
那麼我們怎麼會落到這步田地?
Almost everything that makes modern life possible relies on fossil fuels: coal, oil, and gas full of carbon from ancient organic matter. When we burn fossil fuels, we release carbon dioxide that builds up in our atmosphere, where it remains for hundreds or even thousands of years, letting heat in, but not out.
幾乎所有成就現代化的一切 都仰賴化石燃料:煤炭、石油和天然氣 這些都富含來自遠古有機物的碳 當我們燃燒化石燃料時 我們釋放出的二氧化碳 會在大氣層中累積 並停留數百年,甚至數千年 讓熱只進不出
The heat comes from sunlight, which passes through the atmosphere to Earth, where it gets absorbed and warms everything up. Warm objects emit infrared radiation, which should pass back out into space, because most atmospheric gases don’t absorb it. But greenhouse gases— carbon dioxide and methane— do absorb infrared wavelengths. So when we add more of those gases to the atmosphere, less heat makes it back out to space, and our planet warms up.
來自陽光的熱 通過大氣層到達地球 被吸收後,使萬物變暖 溫暖的物體會輻射紅外線 這些輻射本應返回太空 因為大多數的大氣氣體不會吸收它 但是溫室氣體二氧化碳和甲烷 會吸收紅外線波長 因此,當我們向大氣中 釋放更多這種氣體時 返回太空的熱減少 地球就會被暖化
If we keep emitting greenhouse gases at our current pace, scientists predict temperatures will rise 4 degrees from their pre-industrial levels by 2100. They’ve identified 1.5 degrees of warming— global averages half a degree warmer than today’s— as a threshold beyond which the negative impacts of climate change will become increasingly severe. To keep from crossing that threshold, we need to get our greenhouse gas emissions down to zero as fast as possible.
如果我們繼續 以目前的速度排放溫室氣體 科學家預測到 2100 年 全球氣溫將上升 4 ℃ 這是以工業革命前的溫度為比較基準 科學家已確認氣溫上升 1.5 ℃ 也就是比現在全球平均氣溫 上升 0.5 ℃ 將視為氣候變遷對地球產生負面影響 變得越來越嚴重的門檻值 為了避免越過這個門檻值 我們需要將溫室氣體排放量降至零 而且越快越好
Or rather, we have to get emissions down to what's called net zero, meaning we may still be putting some greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but we take out as much as we put in.
或者更確切地說,我們必須 將排放量降至所謂的淨零 意即我們仍可能 繼續向大氣層排放溫室氣體 但我們移除的和排放的一樣多
This doesn’t mean we can just keep emitting and sequester all that carbon— we couldn’t keep up with our emissions through natural methods, and technological solutions would be prohibitively expensive and require huge amounts of permanent storage. Instead, while we switch from coal, oil, and natural gas to clean energy and fuels, which will take time, we can mitigate the damage by removing carbon from the atmosphere.
這並不是指我們可以繼續 排放和封存所有的碳 實際上靠大自然減碳 跟不上我們排碳的速度 而且技術解決方案 昂貴地令人望之卻步 而且需要大量的永久儲存空間 然而,我們從煤炭、石油和天然氣 轉向清潔能源和燃料需要時間 我們可以藉由從大氣中移除碳 來減輕對地球的損害
Jumping out of the proverbial pot isn’t an option, but we can do something the frogs can’t: reach over, and turn down the heat.
跳出熱鍋或許不是一個選項 但我們可以做青蛙做不到的事: 伸手過去,把火關小