What's the most important century in human history? Some might argue it’s a period of extensive military campaigning, like Alexander the Great’s in the 300s BCE, which reshaped political and cultural borders. Others might cite the emergence of a major religion, such as Islam in the 7th century, which codified and spread values across such borders. Or perhaps it’s the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s that transformed global commerce and redefined humanity's relationship with labor. Whatever the answer, it seems like any century vying for that top spot is at a moment of great change— when the actions of our ancestors shifted humanity’s trajectory for centuries to come. So if this is our metric, is it possible that right now— this century— is the most important one yet?
人類歷史上最重要的世紀 是哪個世紀? 有些人可能會主張是 大規模軍事征戰的時期, 比如西元前三世紀 亞歷山大大帝的征戰, 重塑了政治與文化的邊界。 也有些人可能會說是 重要宗教出現的時期, 比如第七世紀的伊斯蘭教, 它所制定和傳播的價值觀, 能跨越這些邊界。 或者也許是十八世紀的工業革命, 它改變了全球的商業, 且重新定義了人類和勞務的關係。 不論答案是什麼,似乎 角逐這個寶座的世紀, 都是處在大變動時期的世紀—— 在那些時期,我們祖先的行動 改變了人類接下來幾個世紀的軌道。 如果這是我們的衡量標準, 有沒有可能,現在—— 本世紀——是史上最重要的世紀?
The 21st century has already proven to be a period of rapid technological growth. Phones and computers have accelerated the pace of life. And we’re likely on the cusp of developing new transformative technologies, like advanced artificial intelligence, that could entirely change the way people live. Meanwhile, many technologies we already have contribute to humanity’s unprecedented levels of existential risk— that’s the risk of our species going extinct or experiencing some kind of disaster that permanently limits humanity’s ability to grow and thrive. The invention of the atomic bomb marked a major rise in existential risk, and since then we’ve only increased the odds against us. It’s profoundly difficult to estimate the odds of an existential collapse occurring this century. Very rough guesses put the risk of existential catastrophe due to nuclear winter and climate change at around 0.1%, with the odds of a pandemic causing the same kind of collapse at a frightening 3%.
二十一世紀已經被證實 是科技快速成長的時期。 手機和電腦加速了生活的步調。 且我們可能即將要開發出 能帶來轉型的新科技, 比如先進的人工智慧, 可能可以完全改變人的生活方式。 同時,我們已經擁有的許多科技 則會讓人類面臨 前所未有的滅絕風險—— 這類風險包括我們這個物種的絕種, 以及遇到某種災難 永久限制人類成長和繁榮的能力。 原子彈的發明就讓滅絕風險大增, 從那之後,我們只有 讓狀況對我們更不利。 要估計本世紀發生物種 減絕的機率是非常困難的。 根據非常粗略的猜測, 因為核冬天及氣候變遷 造成滅絕性大災難的機率 大約為 0.1%, 而疫情造成同樣這種滅絕的機率 是很嚇人的 3%。
Given that any of these disasters could mean the end of life as we know it, these aren’t exactly small figures, And it’s possible this century could see the rise of new technologies that introduce more existential risks. AI experts have a wide range of estimates regarding when artificial general intelligence will emerge, but according to some surveys, many believe it could happen this century. Currently, we have relatively narrow forms of artificial intelligence, which are designed to do specific tasks like play chess or recognize faces. Even narrow AIs that do creative work are limited to their singular specialty. But artificial general intelligences, or AGIs, would be able to adapt to and perform any number of tasks, quickly outpacing their human counterparts. There are a huge variety of guesses about what AGI could look like, and what it would mean for humanity to share the Earth with another sentient entity. AGIs might help us achieve our goals, they might regard us as inconsequential, or, they might see us as an obstacle to swiftly remove. So in terms of existential risk, it's imperative the values of this new technology align with our own. This is an incredibly difficult philosophical and engineering challenge that will require a lot of delicate, thoughtful work. Yet, even if we succeed, AGI could still lead to another complicated outcome.
因為任何這些災難都可能 意味著生命就此消失, 上述的數字一點也不算小。 有可能在這個世紀會出現 帶來更大滅絕風險的新科技。 對於通用人工智慧何時會出現, 人工智慧專家有 各式各樣的不同估計, 但根據一些調查,多數人 相信會在這個世紀發生。 目前,我們的人工智慧 形式算是相對狹隘, 它們被設計來做特定的工作 任務,如下棋或臉孔辨識。 就算是做創意工作的狹隘人工智慧 也受限於單一專長。 但通用人工智慧(AGI) 能夠適應並且執行 任何數量的工作任務, 很快就會超越其人類對手。 對於 AGI 會是什麼樣子, 有各式各樣的猜測, 對於人類要和另一種 有感知的實體共享地球 意味著什麼,也有各種看法。 AGI 可能可以協助我們 達成我們的目標, 它們可能會認為我們舉無輕重, 或者,它們可能會將我們視為 要盡速移除的障礙。 所以,就滅絕風險來說, 一定要讓這種新科技的 價值觀和我們的一致。 這是個超困難的哲學與工程難題, 會需要投入大量精湛、周道的心力。 但就算我們成功了, AGI 仍然有可能帶來 另一種複雜的結果。
Let’s imagine an AGI emerges with deep respect for human life and a desire to solve all humanity’s troubles. But to avoid becoming misaligned, it's been developed to be incredibly rigid about its beliefs. If these machines became the dominant power on Earth, their strict values might become hegemonic, locking humanity into one ideology that would be incredibly resistant to change. History has taught us that no matter how enlightened a civilization thinks they are, they are rarely up to the moral standards of later generations. And this kind of value lock in could permanently distort or constrain humanity’s moral growth.
想像出現了一種對人類生命 抱持深切尊重的 AGI, 且它想要解決所有人類的問題。 但為了避免發生不一致, 它被開發成對於信念非常死板固執。 如果這些機器成為主宰地球的勢力, 它們固執的價值觀 可能會變成霸權主義, 把人類鎖在一種非常抗拒 改變的意識形態當中。 歷史告訴我們,不論一個 文明認為它自己有多開明, 通常還是不及後世的道德標準。 將價值觀這樣鎖住, 可能會永久扭曲或限制 人類的道德成長。
There's a ton of uncertainty around AGI, and it’s profoundly difficult to predict how any existential risks will play out over the next century. It’s also possible that new, more pressing concerns might render these risks moot. But even if we can't definitively say that ours is the most important century, it still seems like the decisions we make might have a major impact on humanity’s future. So maybe we should all live like the future depends on us— because actually, it just might.
關於 AGI,還有太多不確定性, 也相當難預測 下一個世紀的任何 滅絕風險會如何發展。 也有可能會出現新的、 更迫切的問題, 讓這些風險變得無關緊要。 雖然我們無法一口咬定 我們的世紀就是最重要的世紀, 但我們所做的決策似乎仍然 會對人類的未來有重大的影響。 所以也許在我們過生活時, 應該要當作未來仰賴我們—— 因為實際上真的可能是這樣。