What's the most important century in human history? Some might argue it’s a period of extensive military campaigning, like Alexander the Great’s in the 300s BCE, which reshaped political and cultural borders. Others might cite the emergence of a major religion, such as Islam in the 7th century, which codified and spread values across such borders. Or perhaps it’s the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s that transformed global commerce and redefined humanity's relationship with labor. Whatever the answer, it seems like any century vying for that top spot is at a moment of great change— when the actions of our ancestors shifted humanity’s trajectory for centuries to come. So if this is our metric, is it possible that right now— this century— is the most important one yet?
人类历史上最重要的世纪是哪一个? 有些人可能认为是 大范围军事行动的时期, 像亚历山大大帝 在公元前 300 年, 重塑了政治和文化边界。 另一些人可能会举例 主流宗教的兴起, 像是七世纪的伊斯兰教, 定义了价值观并传播它越过这些边界。 又或许是十七世纪的工业革命 改变了全球商业 并重新定义了人类与劳动力的联系。 无论答案如何, 似乎任何一个争夺这个位置的世纪 身处巨变之中—— 当我们祖先的作为 改变了人类社会的轨迹 持续到未来的数个世纪里。 因此,如果这是我们的衡量标准, 有没有可能目前—— 这个世纪—— 是最重要的一个呢?
The 21st century has already proven to be a period of rapid technological growth. Phones and computers have accelerated the pace of life. And we’re likely on the cusp of developing new transformative technologies, like advanced artificial intelligence, that could entirely change the way people live. Meanwhile, many technologies we already have contribute to humanity’s unprecedented levels of existential risk— that’s the risk of our species going extinct or experiencing some kind of disaster that permanently limits humanity’s ability to grow and thrive. The invention of the atomic bomb marked a major rise in existential risk, and since then we’ve only increased the odds against us. It’s profoundly difficult to estimate the odds of an existential collapse occurring this century. Very rough guesses put the risk of existential catastrophe due to nuclear winter and climate change at around 0.1%, with the odds of a pandemic causing the same kind of collapse at a frightening 3%.
21 世纪已经被证明是 是一段技术快速发展的时期。 电话和电脑加快了生活的节奏。 而我们很可能处在 研发新型变革性技术的节骨眼上, 像是先进的人工智能, 将彻底改变人类的生活方式。 同时,许多我们已经拥有的技术 导致了人类前所未有的生存风险—— 即我们作为物种灭绝的风险, 或者经历某种灾难,长远地 限制人类生存和发展的能力。 原子弹的发明意味着 生存风险大幅上升, 而从那时起,我们更 加深了自身所处的危险。 很难去估算出 本世纪发生生存崩塌的概率。 非常粗略的分析将生存灾难的概率 关系到核冬天和气候变化 定在 0.1% 左右, 而一场疾病大流行 导致类似灾难的概率 是可怕的 3%。
Given that any of these disasters could mean the end of life as we know it, these aren’t exactly small figures, And it’s possible this century could see the rise of new technologies that introduce more existential risks. AI experts have a wide range of estimates regarding when artificial general intelligence will emerge, but according to some surveys, many believe it could happen this century. Currently, we have relatively narrow forms of artificial intelligence, which are designed to do specific tasks like play chess or recognize faces. Even narrow AIs that do creative work are limited to their singular specialty. But artificial general intelligences, or AGIs, would be able to adapt to and perform any number of tasks, quickly outpacing their human counterparts. There are a huge variety of guesses about what AGI could look like, and what it would mean for humanity to share the Earth with another sentient entity. AGIs might help us achieve our goals, they might regard us as inconsequential, or, they might see us as an obstacle to swiftly remove. So in terms of existential risk, it's imperative the values of this new technology align with our own. This is an incredibly difficult philosophical and engineering challenge that will require a lot of delicate, thoughtful work. Yet, even if we succeed, AGI could still lead to another complicated outcome.
由于这些灾难中的任何一个 都意味着我们所理解的生命的终结, 这些数字不小, 而且本世纪有可能见证 新技术的崛起 带来更多的生存风险。 人工智能专家们有一个 大约的估计关于 人工通用智能出现的时间, 但一些调查显示 , 许多人认为它可能在本世纪发生。 目前,我们有 定义狭隘的人工智能, 它们被设计用来完成特定的任务 如下棋或识别人脸。 即使是从事创造工作的狭义人工智能也 只限于他们的单个专业。 但人工通用智能,即 AGI, 将能够适应并执行任何项任务, 迅速胜过 他们的人类同行。 有大量的猜测 关于 AGI 可能看起来的样子, 以及人类选择与 另一个有意识的实体 共享地球将意味着什么。 AGI 可能会帮助我们 实现我们的目标, 他们可能认为我们无关紧要, 或者,他们可能把我们看作 需要迅速清除的障碍。 因此,在生存风险方面, 这一新技术的价值观必须与 我们的价值观相一致。 这是一个令人难以置信 哲学和工程方面的困难挑战, 需要大量精细、周到的工作。 然而,即使我们成功了,AGI 仍可能 引出另一个复杂的结果。
Let’s imagine an AGI emerges with deep respect for human life and a desire to solve all humanity’s troubles. But to avoid becoming misaligned, it's been developed to be incredibly rigid about its beliefs. If these machines became the dominant power on Earth, their strict values might become hegemonic, locking humanity into one ideology that would be incredibly resistant to change. History has taught us that no matter how enlightened a civilization thinks they are, they are rarely up to the moral standards of later generations. And this kind of value lock in could permanently distort or constrain humanity’s moral growth.
让我们假设一个带着 对人类高度尊重 AGI 的出现 并希望解决 所有人类的麻烦。 但为了避免错误观点, 它被研发成对其信仰无比的僵化。 如果这些机器成为 成为地球上的主导力量, 他们严格的价值观可能 成为霸权主义, 将人类锁定在一种意识形态中, 并非常抵触变化。 历史已经告诉我们 无论一种文明 认为其多么发达, 他们很少能达到未来的道德标准。 而这种价值锁定的方式 可能会永久性地扭曲或限制 人类道德观的演化。
There's a ton of uncertainty around AGI, and it’s profoundly difficult to predict how any existential risks will play out over the next century. It’s also possible that new, more pressing concerns might render these risks moot. But even if we can't definitively say that ours is the most important century, it still seems like the decisions we make might have a major impact on humanity’s future. So maybe we should all live like the future depends on us— because actually, it just might.
围绕 AGI 有大量的不确定性, 而且很难预测 任何生存风险会怎么 在下个世纪中体现。 也有可能更新、更加紧迫的问题 可能会使这些风险变得微不足道。 但是,即使我们无法确定 现在是最重要的世纪, 我们所做的决定多少会对人类未来 产生巨大影响。 所以,也许我们该像 未来取决于我们一般生活—— 因为也许确实是这样。