What does it mean for a country to have a healthy economy? What does a healthy economy even look like? Does it look like this? What about like this? Economist Kate Raworth shared a pretty interesting answer to this question on the TED Interview podcast. And it challenges an idea that most economists take for granted.
Davlat uchun sog’lom iqtisodga ega bo’lish nimani anglatadi? Sog’lom iqtisod o’zi qanday bo’ladi? Uning ko’rinishi shundaymi? Yoki shundaymi? TED suhbat podkastida iqtisodchi Kate Raworth bu savolga qiziq javob berdi. Bu iqtisodchilar to’g’ri deb bilgan g’oyani so’roq ostiga qo’yadi.
We live— particularly in the West, particularly in the last 150 years— in a society that has a very strong belief that growth is the sign of progress. And to a certain extent, it’s true. We love to see our kids grow. We love to see nature growing in spring. Growth is a wonderful, healthy phase of life.
Biz - xususan G’arbda, xususan oxirgi 150 yillikda - o’sish progressni anglatishi haqidagi kuchli ishonch bilan yashaydigan jamiyatda yashaymiz. Va qandaydir darajada, bu to’g’ri. Bolalarimiz o’sishini ko’rishni yaxshi ko’ramiz. Tabiat bahorda o’sishini ko’rishni yaxshi ko’ramiz. O’sish ajoyib, hayotning sog’lom bosqichi.
But in our economies, it’s like we’ve turned to Peter Pan economics— the economy that never wanted to grow up. It wanted to grow and grow and grow forever. And it becomes this permanent phase.
Bizning iqtisodda, biz go’yo Peter Pen iqtisodiga aylanib qolgandekmiz, hech qachon o’sishni istamaydigan iqtisod. U doimo o’sish va o’sishni istaydi. Va bu doimiy fazaga aylanadi.
But we already know, in our own bodies, in our own lives, that there’s another side to this metaphor of growth that we love so much. If I told you, my friend had gone to the doctor, and the doctor told her she had a growth, that already feels completely different. Because in the space of our own bodies, we know that when something tries to grow endlessly within this healthy, dynamic living whole, it is a threat to the health of the whole, and we do everything we can to stop it.
Lekin biz allaqachon bilamizki, tanamiz, hayotimizda, biz sevadigan o’sish metaforining boshqa tarafi ham bor. Agarda sizga, do’stim shifokorga bordi, va shifokor unda o’sish bo’lganini aytishi juda ham boshqacha ta’sir qiladi. Chunki bizning tanamizda, bilamizki, nimadir tinimsiz o’sishga harakat qilsa, bu butun sog’lom, dinamik yashash, sog’lom uchun umuman olganda tahdid, buni to’xtatish uchun hamma narsa qilamiz.
But when we step into our economies, for some reason, we think that endless growth is progress. And we are now running into severe problems because we are addicted to endless growth.
Iqtisodga kelganda, ba’zi sabablarga ko’ra tinimsiz o’sishni progress deb ko’ramiz. Biz tinimsiz o’sishga bog’lanib qolganimiz uchun jiddiy muammolarga duch kelyapmiz.
Simon Kuznets, he was asked in the 1930s by US Congress to come up, for the first time, with a single number to measure the output of the economy. America could say we produced so many tons of steel and so many bags of grain— but can we add it all together? So they commissioned him to do this and he said, “Yes, I can. I can add it all together in one number.” National income, what we now know as GDP— but he gave it with a caveat. He said the welfare of a nation can scarcely be known from this number, don’t mix it up with welfare, right? Because it tells us nothing about the unpaid caring work of parents, tells us nothing about the value that’s created in communities, because that’s not priced, and it’s a measure of the flow of economic value. It tells us nothing about the living world, the forests, the mines that get run down in order to create this value. But the convenience, the temptation, of this single number was so great that politicians sort of tucked it in their armpit and carried right on. And we ended up in a horse race of pursuing GDP growth.
AQSH Kongressi 1930-yil Simon Kuznetsdan, birinchi marta, iqtisodni o’lchaydigan yagona son topishni so’rashgan. Amerika qanchadir tonna temir va qop don ishlab chiqardik deyolardi - buni qanday qo’shsa bo’lar edi? Unga shuni qilishni buyruq berishdi va u aytdi: “Ha, qilolaman. Hammasini bir raqamga qo’sha olaman”. Davlat daromadi, biz biladigan YIMni u tanbeh bilan berdi. U xalqning farovonligini bu sondan zo’rga ko’rish mumkin, farovonlik bilan adashtirmang, hop? Chunki bu ota-onalarning to’lanmagan mehnati haqida hech narsa aytmaydi, jamiyatda yaratilgan boylik haqida hech narsa aytmaydi, chunki ular baholanmagan, va bu iqtisod qiymatini o’lchaydi. Bu o’sha qiymatni yaratish uchun ketgan yashab turayotgan hayot, o’rmonlar, konlar haqida hech narsa aytmaydi. Lekin bu yagona sonning qulayligi, vasvasasi shunday yaxshi ediki, siyosatchilar uni qoltig’iga tiqib, o’sha ondayoq ko’tarib ketishdi. Va biz YIM o’sishi musobaqasiga qo’shildik.
The dream is that GDP can keep on increasing, we can have increasing financial returns, but that we can decouple from using Earth’s resources. We can use less carbon and less metals, and minerals and plastics, and we can use less of the Earth’s land surface, and separate these two: ever rising GDP and falling resource use. It’s a fabulous dream; would that it would be true.
Orzu shundan iborat ediki, YIM o’sib boraverardi, bizning ham moliyaviy qaytimimiz o’sib boradi, lekin buni Yer resurslari foydalanishdan ajratishimiz mumkin edi. Biz kamroq karbonat angidrid, metal, mineral va plastik ishlata olamiz, va kamroq Yer resurlaridan foydalanib, bu ikkisini ajrata olamiz: doimiy o’sadigan YIM va foydalanish kamayadigan resurslar. Bu afsonaviy orzu; u ro’yobga chiqarmikan.
We are at a time of climate emergency, of ecosystem collapse. We need to radically reduce our use of Earth’s resources, and we're nowhere close to that.
Biz iqlim favqulotda holati, ekosistema qulashi paytidamiz. Biz tubdan Yer resurslaridan foydalanishni kamaytirishimiz zarur va biz hozir bunga yaqin ham emasmiz.
So I offer it as a compass for 21st century prosperity. And this compass, silly though it sounds, it looks like a doughnut with the hole in the middle.
Buni XXI asr rivojlanishi uchun kompass deb taklif qilaman. Bu compass, g’alati eshitilsa-da, o’rtada teshigi bo’lgan ponchikka o’xshaydi.
So imagine from the center of it, humanity’s use of Earth’s resources radiating out from the middle of that picture. So in the hole, in the middle of the doughnut, that is the place where people don’t have enough resources to meet the essentials of life. It’s where people don’t have enough food or health care, or education or housing or gender equality or political voice or access to energy. And we want to leave nobody in that hole. We want to get everybody over a social foundation of well-being, so all people on this planet can lead lives of dignity and opportunity and community. And in low income countries, it absolutely makes sense, yes, let’s see the economy grow in ways that invest in health and education and transport for all. That was a very 20th century project. We're in the 21st century.
Tassavur qiling, o’rtasidan, odamzodning Yer resurslaridan foydalanuvi rasm markazidan kattalashib bormoqda. Chuqurlikda, ponchik o’rtasida, hayotning kerakli narsalarini ololmaydigan, kerakli resurslari yo’q odamlar yotadi. U yerda odamlarda yetarli oziq yo sog’liq ta’minlovchi, yo ta’lim yo uy yo gender tenglik yo siyosiy ovoz yo energiya yo’q. Chuqurlikda.. ... hech kimni qoldirishni istamaymiz. Biz hammaning ijtimoiy asos - farovonlik- dan o’tishini xohlaymiz, shunda hamma insonlar farovonlik, omad va jamiyatda yashaydilar. Kam daromadli davlatlarda, bu qandaydir ma’noga ega, ha, iqtisod o’sishini sog’liq va ta’lim va transportga investitsiya kiritgandagisini ko’raylik. Bu XXga asrga xos loyiha. Biz XXI asrdamiz.
We have Earth system scientists who started looking at the impact we were having on the climate, and the loss of soils and acid rain, and the hole in the ozone layer, and the collapse of species. And they said, hang on. We’ve been ignoring our planet. In the growing to meet human needs, we have ignored the fact that we are deeply dependent on this delicately balanced living planet. It’s the only one we know of out there. And when we use Earth’s resources in such a way that we begin to push ourselves beyond the living capacities of this planet, we are literally undermining the life supporting systems on which we depend.
Bizda iqlimga bo’lgan ta’sirimizni, tuproqlorning yo’qotilish va kislotali yomg’ir, ozon qatlamidagi teshiklarni va turlarning yo’qolib borishini o’rganayotgan Yer sistemasi olimlari bor. Ular aytdi, sabr qiling. Biz sayyorani mensimayotgan edik. Insonga kerakli narsalarni qondirishni o’ylab, nozik muvozonatli sayyoraga bog’lanib qolgani- mizni unitib qo’ydik. U biz bilgan yagonadir. Biz Yer resurslarini sayyoraning yashash standartlaridan oshib ketadigan darajada ishlatyapmiz, hayotimizdagi sistemalarni qo’llaydigan suyangan resurslarni buzmoqdamiz.
So, hang on, just as there’s an inner limit of resource use, and we call out poverty and deprivation, there’s an outer limit of humanity’s resource use. That’s ecological degradation. And we are breaking down this planet on which we depend. So there you get the doughnut, you get the inside, which is leave nobody behind in the hole. But don’t overshoot the outer ring either. And so the shape of progress is fundamentally changed. It’s no longer this ever rising line exponential growth, that we hear about in the financial news all the time. It’s balance.
Shu sababli, sabr qiling, go’yo bu resurslarning ichki limiti bordek, va biz qashshoqlikni chaqiramiz, odamzodning resurs foydalanuvi tashqi limiti bor. Bu ekologik degredatsiya. Va biz suyangan sayyorani buzib kelmoqdamiz. Demak siz ponchik olasiz, ichki qismini olasiz, hech kimni ortda qoldirmaydigan chuqurlikdir. Tashqi uzukdan ham oshib ketmang. Progressning shakli ichki qismdan o’zgardi. Bu boshqa har doim yangiliklarda eshitadigan eksponental doimiy o’sish emas. Bu muvozanat.
To me, a source of real hope is that we deeply understand this at the level of our body. You go to the doctor, the doctor will say, have enough food, but not too much, enough water, oxygen, exercise, sleep, anything you like— have enough, but not too much. Our health lies in balance. And if we can take that metaphor from the human body to the planetary body, we give ourselves a cracking chance of understanding the deep interdependence of our world.
Menga, haqiqiy umid bu tanamiz bilan buni tubdan tushunishdir. Siz shifokorga borasiz va yetarli ovqat yeyishingizni aytadi, lekin ko’pmas, yetarli suv, kislorod, masshq, uyqu, nima bo’lsa-da yetarli oling, lekin ortiqcha emas. Sog’lig’imiz muvozanatdan iborat. Bu metaforni inson tanasidan sayyora tanasiga olsak, bu dunyoning ichki suyanchig’ini tushunishga yaxshi sharoit yaratamiz.