Catherine Abreu: We know with certainty that fossil fuels need to be phased out. There's really no question in the science at this point.
凯瑟琳·阿布鲁: 我们很清楚化石燃料要逐步淘汰 这点在科学上是毫无疑问的
Tessa Khan: The arguments for transitioning away from fossil fuels at speed have never been more compelling. I think the responsibilities of governments to accelerate that transition have never been so acute.
特莎·汗: 关于快速淘汰化石能源的讨论 一直以来都十分引人注目 我认为,在加速能源结构转变方面 政府担负着前所未有的重大责任
Laurence Tubiana: It has to be quite radical. It could have been done slowly. But now we are running against time, and the climate impacts are now not for tomorrow. It's for today.
劳伦斯·图比亚纳: 这种转变必须是彻底的 曾经我们还有徐徐图之的机会 但现在我们要和时间赛跑 气候变化的影响也并非未来才会显现 而是迫在眉睫
Hisham Mundol: The role of fossil fuels between now and 2050 is that of a necessary evil.
希山·蒙多尔:从现在到2050年, 石油扮演的角色 虽不受欢迎,但必不可少
Hongqiao Liu: So we have a very complicated relationship with fossil fuels at the moment. It's like your ex-partner, you want to get rid of them, but they stick around.
刘虹桥:所以目前, 我们和化石燃料 的关系非常复杂 它就像是你的前任,你很想摆脱他们 但他们却阴魂不散
Rebekah Shirley: In Africa, for instance, where I live, it's a bit more complicated.
瑞贝卡·雪莉:比如说, 在我居住的非洲,情况会更复杂一些
Vijaya Ramachandran: I don't think it's fair to poor countries to say you have to be renewable only, when the rich countries are doubling down on oil, coal and gas.
维加亚·拉玛钱德兰: 贫穷国家必须只用可再生能源 富裕国家却大量使用 石油、煤炭和天然气 我认为这是不公平的
HL: We need to debate. We need we need that exchange. We need to understand each other's views and to start with the concept of the dilemma that we’re facing.
刘虹桥: 我们需要讨论 我们需要交流 我们要理解彼此的观点 并从了解我们所面临的困境开始
Zoë Knight: In my mind, the biggest obstacle is the speed of collaboration. We speak at cross-purposes with each other.
佐伊·奈特:我认为, 最大的障碍是合作的速度 我们交谈时,其实怀着不同目的
Mary Robinson: We've got to deal with this much more quickly than we're doing. How do we raise the temperature? How do we increase the energy for action, the passion for action, the heartfelt need for action which will move us?
玛丽·罗宾森: 我们必须加快速度来处理这件事 我们要怎样炒热气氛? 我们要怎样增加干劲与热情? 怎样受到触动, 发自内心地开展行动?
[TED Countdown]
[TED倒计时栏目]
[Dilemma Series]
[困境系列]
[How do we move from fossil fuels to clean energy quickly and fairly?]
[如何快速且公平地完成 从化石能源到清洁能源的转型?]
Lindsay Levin: We're standing at a crucial crossroads in history. We live in a world where our energy system is overwhelmingly dependent on burning fossil fuels. What are the viable pathways to a clean and safe future, and how do we collectively navigate this transition?
林赛·莱文:我们正处于 历史上关键的十字路口 我们世界的能源系统仍极大程度上 依赖于化石燃料 通向安全无污染的未来的 可行路径究竟是什么样的? 我们又应该如何 共同面对这一转变?
I'm Lindsay Levin, co-founder of Countdown, and this is the second installment of our Dilemma Series. We know that credible people, including many of you, disagree in some pretty fundamental ways on this topic, the core of the climate challenge. Recently at the Barbican Centre in London, we brought together experts, activists and leading voices in the climate space to speak, listen and work together as we figure out how to make progress despite our differences.
我是林赛·莱文, 倒计时栏目的联合创始人 这是困境系列的第二集 我知道许多可靠的人们, 包括你们中的很多人 对于气候挑战的核心话题 在一些相当基本的方面上存在分歧 最近在伦敦巴比肯艺术中心 我们召集了气候领域的专家、 活动家以及权威人士 相互交流、倾听并合作, 探讨如何在存在分歧的情况下 取得进展
While the need to get off fossil fuels is straightforward and urgent, the pathway to doing it equitably is anything but. Here's TED science curator David Biello to frame the basic ideas behind this dilemma.
虽然摆脱化石燃料的需求 是如此明了而紧迫 但能够使其绝对公平 的方法却仍不明朗 接下来TED科学负责人 大卫·比尔洛 将阐述这一困境背后的基本思想
David Biello: Today, more than 80 percent of modern energy comes from burning fossil fuels. That means more than 40 billion metric tons, that's 40 gigatons, of CO2 gets dumped in the air each year. And that number is growing.
大卫·比尔洛: 如今,超过80%的现代能源 来自于燃烧化石燃料 这意味着每年有超过 400亿吨的二氧化碳 排放到大气中 并且这个数字还在增长
At the same time, hundreds of millions of people live with limited or no access to modern energy at all. That means they have contributed almost nothing to the greenhouse gas pollution causing the climate crisis.
与此同时 数亿人生活在能源受限 或者根本没有现代能源的地区 这意味着他们几乎没有产生 导致气候危机的温室气体
So do we stop fossil fuel exploration and production entirely? Do we encourage it for certain communities but not others? And if so, where? How do we actually get renewables to scale and how do we pay for it all? These questions are incredibly complex, but the takeaway is clear. We need to eliminate fossil fuels and use what we must to ensure that everyone benefits. Let's start with some facts and figures about where we are today. Here's Adair Turner.
那么我们是否应该完全停止 开采与生产化石燃料呢? 这一倡议是否只针对特定地区? 如果是这样,那又是哪些地区呢? 我们如何才能真正实现 可再生能源的规模化? 我们又应如何为这一切买单? 这些问题非常复杂 但结论很明确 我们需要淘汰化石燃料 并且必须确保所有人都能受益 让我们从一些事实和数据开始, 弄清楚如今我们所处的境况 以下是阿代尔·特纳的讲话
Adair Turner: The International Panel on Climate Change estimated in 2018 that if we are to have even a 50-percent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade, we cannot emit more than 500 gigatons of CO2 between 2020 and 2050. But actually, we're two years into that 30-year period. We've been running at 40 gigatons per year, so we've only got 420 gigatons left. That 420 gigatons would be emitted if we burnt 70 billion tons of coal plus 65 trillion cubic meters of gas plus 350 billion barrels of oil. But at the current rate we will have burnt all of that in 12 years.
阿代尔·特纳:国际气候 变化专门委员会在2018年预估 即使我们只想要保持50%的概率 将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以内 我们在2020年到2050年间 的二氧化碳排放量 也不能超过5000亿吨 但实际上,我们已经走过了 这30年中的2年 而我们每年都排放了约 400亿吨的二氧化碳 所以我们只剩4200亿吨的排放额度 排放4200吨的二氧化碳 也就是燃烧700亿吨煤 加上65万亿立方米天然气 外加3500亿桶石油 但按照现在的速度, 只需12年就能把这些全燃尽了
We have got to find a way of leaving the vast majority of coal, oil and gas in the ground, even if it is in someone's interest to dig it or drill it up. So what should we do?
我们必须找到一种方法, 把绝大多数的煤炭、石油和天然气 留在地下 哪怕这有损某些人的利益 所以我们应该怎么做?
In one area, the answer is clear. Renewable is now a cheaper way to produce electricity than coal in almost all countries of the world, so we should build no more coal electricity plants, no more coal mines. And we should not invest anything in the extension of existing coal mines.
至少在某一方面,答案是很明确的 如今,可再生能源 几乎在世界上所有的国家中 都是比煤炭更实惠的产电方式 所以我们应该停止建造新 的煤电厂和煤矿 并且我们不应该再投资 扩大现有的煤矿
For gas and oil, it is a bit trickier. International Energy Agency suggests a distinction. It says that we should invest nothing in exploration for or production from new oil and gas fields, but that it’s OK to invest something to maintain production from existing fields.
至于天然气和石油,这就有点棘手了 国际能源机构建议做出区分 他们提议我们应不再投资于 新油气田的勘探或生产 但仍可以投入现有油气田的生产
But there are some people who would challenge the morality of that distinction, because if there's an absolute limit to how much gas we can safely burn, it's not clear that squeezing a little bit more out of the North Sea is more acceptable than developing a new gas field in an African country whose past cumulative per capita emissions have been a tiny fraction of the UK's.
但是有些人会质疑 这种区分的道德性 因为如果真的有一个 燃耗天然气的绝对安全上限 那么从北海多开采一点天然气 就比在一个非洲国家 开采一个新的气田 更合理吗? 毕竟一个非洲国家过去 的累计人均排放量 只是英国的一个零头而已
We now have the technologies to dramatically reduce the demand for fossil fuels, and we should deploy them as rapidly as possible. That means ensuring that electricity systems in every developed country get to zero emissions by 2035 at the very latest and ideally earlier, with no coal and only a very, very small role for unabated gas. We should be aiming to reduce coal demand 90 percent by 2050, oil demand at least 75 percent and gas demand by well over 50 percent. And we are running out of time to do it fast enough.
我们现有的技术 可以大幅减少对化石燃料的需求 我们应该尽快部署并使用这些技术 也就意味着要确保 每个发达国家的电力系统 最迟在2035年 实现零排放,最好更早 要停止使用煤炭 且只使用很少量的天然气 我们应该努力在2050年 达成以下目标:煤炭需求减少90% 石油需求至少减少75% 以及天然气需求减少50%以上 但我们快没时间了
LL: Those are some big reduction targets, and we need to meet them. But as we move there, we'll still be using some fossil fuels to meet energy demands. How do we do that while accelerating our transition to renewables? Some people think we can work with the fossil fuel industry and want to pressure it to do better. Others propose more radical departures. Here are a few opinions on this issue, starting with Jérôme Schmitt, a former oil industry executive who is now a senior fellow at the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment.
林赛·莱文:这些都是很大 的减排目标,但我们需要实现 可即便我们做到了 我们也仍将使用一些化石燃料 以满足能量供应 我们应该如何在加速 向可再生能源转变的同时 处理这个问题呢? 一些人认为我们可以 与化石燃料产业一起探讨出路 并向迫使该产业做出转变 其他人则更激进, 认为应该彻底摒弃这类能源 以下是关于这个问题的一些观点, 首先是杰罗姆·施密特 他曾是石油行业高管 如今是哥伦比亚 可持续投资中心的高级研究员
Jérôme Schmitt: I'm not aware of any net-zero scenario compliant with 1.5 degree or two degree that does not involve even a little bit of fossil fuel by 2040 or 2050, especially for the developing part of the world. Therefore, some people will need to have an all-in understanding of the energy system and be able to manage the complexity of producing and supplying to customers and to countries clean energy on one side and less and less fossil fuel on the other side and concentrate the fossil fuel supply and demand on the absolute necessary means and usage and increase progressively the shift from one to the other.
杰罗姆·施密特: 如果到2040年或2050年 要将全球气温升高控制在1.5或2度 我不知道有什么净零排放方案 能不涉及任何化石燃料 特别是在发展中国家和地区 因此,一些人需要对能源系统 有一个全面的了解 并且能够掌握 一边为消费人群和国家提供清洁能源 一边减少化石能源供应的复杂体系 将化石能源的供需集中到 亟需的方式和用途上来 并快速完成从化石能源 到清洁能源的转换
Those who have the competency today to manage this complexity and the balance sheet is still the oil and gas industry, whether we like it or not. So I would take the oil and gas industry as an opportunity to go faster, to make it right better than we would do it without them. But if it doesn't prove possible because the oil and gas industry doesn't shift and doesn't adapt, we must do without.
如今,有实力掌握这一复杂系统 并实现盈利的 仍然还是石油、天然气产业 尽管我们并不乐见这一结果 所以,我把石油、 天然气产业看做一个机会 一个能够帮助我们 更快、更好地完成转型的机会 但如果事实证明 石油、天然气产业难以转变升级 我们也必须淘汰它们
Ramez Naam: Oil and gas companies have to realize -- they don't always, but they really should realize -- the writing is on the wall. We're spending close to twice as much on clean energy as we are on fossil fuel infrastructure already, and that gap is just going to widen and widen. So I think if we can pivot those companies, that industry, into working on a clean future, it's a good thing. But we shouldn't have illusions that it's going to happen by itself. The pivot that has happened has been because companies have seen that the future is clean. And so a combination of continuing to push on policy, on citizen advocacy and on driving for the technologies that disrupt fossil fuels is what will cause those large, entrenched fossil fuel companies to pivot towards the clean future.
拉梅兹·纳姆: 石油、天然气公司需要意识到—— 他们一般意识不到, 但他们应该知道—— 情况已经很不妙了 我们在清洁能源的基础设施上花的钱 已经接近化石燃料的两倍 而这个差距还在不断扩大 所以,如果我们 能让这些公司,这个行业 转向清洁能源,这会是件好事 但是我们不应该心存幻想, 觉得它们自己就会完成这种转变 之所以我们目前有如此变化 是因为这些公司明白未来 是清洁能源的天下 所以,持续推进政策转变 推进公众倡议 以及推进化石能源转型技术 这三者相结合,才能让扎根多年 的大型化石燃料企业 转向发展清洁能源
Tzeporah Berman: We're living the last gasp of the fossil fuel industry, and they're doing everything they can to weaken climate policy and hold on to the market because they know renewables are cheaper. MR: There was a great opportunity to move with all the skills that the fossil fuel industry has built up over the years, convert over to clean energy. That would have been a wonderful moment. If that had happened, things would be very different. We don’t have the time now to get into a long, transition-y kind of discourse, which is what most of them seem to want. They lack the urgency of now in their talk.
采波拉·波尔曼:在这个时代, 化石燃料产业在苟延残喘 所以它们用尽一切办法 来削弱气候政策 保住市场份额 因为他们知道可再生能源更便宜 玛丽·罗宾森: 曾经我们有机会 借鉴化石燃料产业 多年以来的经验技术 来推动清洁能源发展 那该是多好的事啊 如果能够成功,情况就会非常不同 我们现在没有时间 来进行关于转型的长篇大论了 但这正是他们大多数人有意为之的 他们的言论缺乏对紧迫性的认识
DB: As you can see, there's a lot of skepticism about the fossil fuel industry based on its history of deception. Here's well-known climate activist Luisa Neubauer, urging us not to believe everything we hear.
大卫·比尔洛:我们能看到, 鉴于化石燃料产业曾经的欺骗行为 很多人都对他们持怀疑态度 以下是著名气候活动家 路易莎·纽鲍尔的演讲 她会告诉我们:耳听为虚
Luisa Neubauer: People, for instance, call the climate crisis manmade. And while there were indeed humans behind it, it's much less manmade and much more fossil-fuel-made. It's made possible by the exploitation of coal, oil and gas and the profit-driven economic systems behind it. Calling the climate crisis manmade implies it's an accident of human nature, whereas it's actually a relatively small group of people and just a few places around the world: the fossil fuel industries, their marketing and their political supporters.
路易莎·纽鲍尔:比如说, 人们认为气候危机是人为因素造成的 当然,人类活动确实有一定影响 但我们更应该说 是化石燃料因素造成的 是由于煤、石油和天然气的开采 以及它们背后的以盈利为目 的的经济体系造成的 说气候危机是由于人为因素,意味着 这是人类的自然属性所导致的事故 但实际上,需要为此负责 的只是一小部分人 和世界上很少几个地区 也就是化石燃料产业 相关市场活动及其政策支持者
The fossil fuel industry itself is also a powerhouse of fairy tales. Fifty years ago, they knew that their business would lead us into a climate disaster. They denied their own climate science that they did themselves, and by that, they stole our very first historic chance to act from us.
化石燃料产业本身也在编造故事 50年前 他们就知道这一产业会导致气候灾难 他们否认了他们自己所做的气候研究 也正因此 他们偷走了我们最初 的采取行动的机会
So now, for many lives, it's already too late. And this time they present themselves as part of the solution. They call it transition. They promise innovation, they speak of green growth. And it sounds wonderful. It is powerful, too. I would like to believe that, too. But I cannot.
所以现在,对于很多生命来说, 一切都太迟了 此刻,他们又摇身一变, 表现自己是解决方案的一部分 他们把这叫做“转型” 他们承诺做出创新,谈论绿色增长 听起来很不错 也很有力 我也想相信 但我做不到
We do not have time for any more delay. So whoever tells us that they will just need some more time, does not understand the very basic logic of the crisis we are in. Back in Hamburg, when I was in school, we could get 90 minutes to finish a math exam. The fossil fuel industry is, in a way, taking that very exam right now. But instead of 90 minutes, they tell us they will finish in nine years. Back in school, that attitude would have gotten me failing my assignments.
我们没有时间拖延了 所以,那些说他们只是 需要一点时间的人 根本不理解我们面临 的危机的基本逻辑 在我还在汉堡上学的时候 数学考试有90分钟 化石燃料产业 现在也正在接受一场考试 但考试时间不是90分钟 他们要9年 在学校 如果我是这种态度, 那我考试就会不及格
If fossil fuel industries don't listen when people and science tell them to get out of fossil fuels, they should not be listened to when they tell us more fairy tales about wanting to be part of the solution.
如果在公众和科学研究 说要淘汰化石燃料的时候 化石燃料产业没有听从这一要求 那么当他们再跟我们编造故事 说想要成为解决方案的一部分时, 也没有人会相信他们了
If fossil fuel industries get to make the rules about the transition we so desperately need, we will not get that transition.
如果是由化石燃料产业来制定 我们所急需的转型规则 那我们就不可能真的转型成功
LL: The question of whether there should be any new expansion of fossil fuels is hotly contested, and there are passionate points of view on both sides. With a powerful perspective on the injustice of banning fossil fuels in developing countries, here's economist Vijaya Ramachandran.
林赛·莱文: 关于是否要扩大化石燃料使用规模的问题 一直处于激烈争论之中 正反双方都提出了很多观点 以下是关于在发展中国家 禁用化石燃料的不公平性的有力观点 来自经济学家维加亚·拉马钱德兰
VR: The average Nigerian consumes about 133 kilowatt hours of electricity a year. What the average American consumes in four days. In Nepal, that number is 231 kilowatt hours. In Haiti, it's only 37.
维加亚·拉马钱德兰: 每个尼日利亚人每年消耗约133度电 而这只是美国人4天的平均消耗量 在尼泊尔,这一数字是231度 在海地,只有37度
So what does all of this mean for real people? It means that they might have a few lights at home or a small fan, but no refrigerator, no water heater, no safe cookstove. It means that poor people stay poor.
放到真实的生活中, 这意味着什么呢? 意味着家里只有几盏灯, 或者一架小电扇 但没有冰箱,没有热水壶和安全炉 意味着穷人只能陷于穷困
Now let's look at climate change. Poor people did not create the carbon emissions that have caused climate change. The 64 poorest countries in the world account for less than five percent of annual carbon emissions. Even India, often perceived as a climate villain, adds about seven percent. Poor people are not to blame. Germany's coal plants emit four times more carbon than Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Lao and Bangladesh combined.
现在我们来看看气候变化 穷人并没有产生 导致气候变化的碳排放 全世界最穷的64个国家 产生的碳排放 只占世界年碳排放量的不到5% 就算是有着“气候恶徒”之名的印度 也只占约7% 穷人不应该承担这份罪名 德国煤电厂的碳排放量 是巴基斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、 老挝和孟加拉国排放量总和的四倍
Yes, energy, poverty and climate change are intertwined, but not in the way most people think. Most people think that poor countries need to moderate their energy use to address climate change. The reality for poor people in these countries is that they need a lot more energy to adapt to climate change.
是的,能源、贫困 和气候变化是彼此相关的 但这种关联与大多数人的想法大相径庭 大多数人认为,穷国要减少能源使用量 来应对气候变化 而现实是,这些国家的穷人 需要更多能源来适应气候变化
As natural disasters get worse, they will need more concrete and steel to build resilient homes and schools and roads. As temperatures rise, they'll need air conditioning and cold storage for food and medicines. As droughts become more common, they'll need fertilizer, pumped irrigation, desalination. All of these responses to climate change are going to require a lot more energy.
由于自然灾害危害渐增 他们需要更多混凝土和钢筋 来修建牢固的房屋、学校和道路 由于气温上升,他们需要空调 和储藏食物、药物的冷藏设备 由于干旱越来越普遍 他们需要化肥、灌溉水泵 和海水淡化装置 所有这些应对气候变化的措施 都需要很多能源
So the good news is that we don't need to fear this high-energy future for poor people. All of this energy that they will likely need will come from low-carbon sources to a great extent. The abundance of wind, solar, geothermal and hydropower in Africa and Asia means that a lot of the energy that we are going to see will not likely increase carbon emissions very much.
好消息是 尽管穷人未来需要大量能源, 但我们不需要害怕 所有这些他们需要的能源 都在很大程度上由低碳方式产生 在非洲和亚洲 风能、太阳能、 地热能和水能都很丰富 这意味着我们未来使用的能源 不会过多增加碳排放
So how can the US and Europe be smarter about ending energy poverty and addressing climate change? First of all, this rich-world hypocrisy of more fossil fuels for me, but not for thee, must end. Governments in poor countries must be able to pursue a range of energy sources. Renewables will likely be the lion's share, but there will be some fossil fuels in the mix. Natural gas, for example, is abundant in Africa. Natural gas has powered the energy transition in the United States. Natural gas can fuel power plants. It is one of the best feedstocks for producing fertilizer, and it is one of the safer and cleaner cooking fuels for women in poor countries. Renewables can be paired with natural gas to increase the share of low-carbon energy sources.
那么,美国和欧盟要怎样明智应对 能源贫困和气候变化呢? 首先,要终结这种富裕国家奉行的 “我可以多用化石能源, 但是你不能用”的伪善说辞 贫困国家政府必须要 掌握一系列的能源资源 可再生能源很可能占比最大 但化石能源也要有一席之地 比如,在非洲,天然气储量很丰富 天然气推动了美国的能源转型 天然气可以供应发电厂 也是生产化肥最好的原料之一 在贫困国家,对女性来说 它也是更安全、 更清洁的烹饪燃料之一 可以将可再生能源和天然气组合起来 提升低碳能源占比
No country, not the US, not the UK, not in Europe, not China, has developed without fossil fuels. The United States has recently passed historically large investments in clean energy, but also in some fossil fuels, taking a very practical approach to its domestic energy transition. The United States and other rich countries should take that same practical approach when it comes to funding energy projects in poor countries. Let's not impose unnecessary and unjust restrictions on those who are least responsible for climate change.
没有国家能够不依靠化石燃料发展 美国不行,英国不行, 欧盟和中国也不行 美国最近通过了一项 史无前例的大型投资 不仅投资清洁能源 也投资一些化石能源 这是其国内能源转型的实际方案 而当美国和其他富裕国家 在援助贫困国家的能源项目时 也应该采用相同的实际方案 请不要让对气候变化责任最小的国家 受到不必要和不公平的限制
LL: If the lion's share of new energy production in the developing world will be renewables, a lot of new financing is going to be needed. Here's Rebekah Shirley of the World Resources Institute on why that's not happening yet.
林赛·莱文: 如果在发展中国家 能源结构占比最大的是可再生能源 那么他们也将需要很多新的资金援助 以下是世界资源研究所 的瑞贝卡·雪莉的演讲 她将谈到为什么资金援助还没有到位
RS: Africa is perhaps the continent that needs least convincing about the clean energy opportunity for health, livelihoods and economy. As the fastest-growing, yet least electrified continent on the globe, most in need of power systems that can help fortify against the onslaught of climate shocks with both abundant fossil and renewable energy resources to build them, Africa's energy transitions and how to dissuade the use of fossil fuels have become an intense international debate. Many sub-Saharan African countries already rely on low-carbon resources. Kenya, where I live, generates 90 percent of its power from renewables like geothermal and hydropower. Even in West Africa, where renewable shares tend to be lower, countries like Ghana generate over a third of their power from renewable energy resources. And countries like Namibia are at the forefront of innovation on clean fuels like green hydrogen. Couple all of that with housing one of the world's largest carbon sinks, the Congo Basin, and sub-Saharan Africa is consistently recognized as pulling more than its fair share of the global decarbonization effort.
瑞贝卡·雪莉: 非洲可能是最不需要知道 清洁能源对健康、 生活以及经济的好处的大洲 作为世界上发展最快, 但电力供应最不充足的大洲 此地的大多数国家都需要电力系统 来帮助他们应对气候危机 而建设电力系统 既需要充足的化石能源 也需要可再生能源 非洲的能源转型 以及停止使用化石燃料的问题 已经在国际上引起了激烈讨论 很多撒哈拉以南的非洲国家 已经在使用低碳能源 像我生活的肯尼亚 有90%的电来自地热能 和水能这样的可再生能源 甚至在可再生能源 使用比例较低的西非 比如加纳,有超过1/3 的电力来自可再生能源 再比如纳米比亚 也处在水能等清洁能 源创新发展的前线 考虑到上述因素,加之此地 有着世界上最大的森林碳汇—— 刚果盆地 撒哈拉以南非洲地区一直被公认为 为全球碳减排做出了 远超其义务的贡献
So if the need is urgent and if the resources are bountiful, then why are we still so far away from this clean-energy future for Africa? And what I've learned is that though the world loves to remind Africa about its vast clean-energy potential, the financial flows to deliver that potential remain troublingly scarce. Projects and businesses incur a number of hidden compounding costs and premiums. Like the risk perception premium. Or the "paying back your US dollar loan in a constantly depreciating local currency" premium. Or the "expected to deliver conventionally high rates of return while raising your revenues from customers that earn less than a dollar a day" premium.
那么,既然需求紧迫,而资源丰富 为什么非洲离清洁能源主导 的未来仍然如此遥远呢? 我所知道的是,尽管世界很爱提起 非洲清洁能源的巨大潜力 但用以开发这种潜力的资金 却仍然十分匮乏 各类项目和商业活动带来了很多 隐藏的复合成本及溢价 比如风险感知溢价 或者用不断贬值 的本国货币兑换美元以偿还贷款 所造成的溢价 或者为了保持一贯的高回报率 不得不从日薪一美元以下 的贫穷消费者手中榨取利益 所造成的溢价
So international finance markets are not appetized, and financial flows here remain a trickle despite a pipeline of ready projects. In fact, though 17 percent of the global population and almost 90 percent of those still without access to basic energy, today Africa accounts for a mere two percent of global clean-energy finance.
国际金融市场才刚刚入场 和巨量的待启动项目相比 援助资金还只是九牛一毛 实际上,尽管非洲人口 占世界人口的17% 而这些人中的90%仍然 无法获得基本的能源 如今,非洲用于发展清洁能源的资金 只占全世界的2%
From this perspective, we can see a key missing ingredient: international cooperation to deliver the finance flows that Africa sorely needs. Because there’s so much potential waiting right at the cusp. If local enterprise had access to long-term, low-cost financing, like their counterparts in other regions of the world can simply take for granted, then Africa's clean-energy future would build itself.
从这点出发,我们就能 够发现缺失的一环: 为非洲带来亟需资金的国际合作 因为我们现在需要 资金支持的项目太多了 如果本国企业能够得到 长期低成本的资金支持 就像世界其他地区 的企业能够轻易得到的一样 那么非洲的清洁能源 的前景就能够自己明朗起来
HM: A lot of renewables technology already exists. The finance flows, especially to, you know, lower-emission countries don't exist. These are the countries that need to grow and growth needs energy. That energy does not have to come from fossil fuels.
希山·蒙多尔:我们现在 已经拥有很多可再生能源技术了 但我们还没有建立资金流, 特别是面向碳排放量 较低国家的资金流 这些国家也恰恰是需要发展 的国家,而发展需要能源 这些能源不一定要来自化石燃料
CA: We often speak with the acceptance of this tautology that no country has ever developed without the use of fossil fuels. But that's not the whole truth, right? The whole truth is that no country has developed without the use of fossil fuels yet.
凯瑟琳·阿布鲁: 我们总是不断提到 没有国家能不依靠化石燃料发展 但是这种说法并不完整,不是吗? 完整的说法应该是 “还”没有国家能不依靠化石燃料发展
LT: You have to really invest in the future of these low-income countries. And access to energy, really looking at the poorest households in all the region is really an important thing. If not, the transition will always appear very unfair.
劳伦斯·图比亚纳:你需要为 这些低收入国家的未来而投资 并且,纵观全世界所有贫困家庭 能源可及性确实是很重要的一点 如果不解决这一点,那么 能源转型就会出现非常不公平的现象
MR: The World Bank hasn't been doing enough to provide that more concessional finance that brings in private-sector financing and that, you know, really looks at what are the projects that are ready for investment and takes risks because it's really important to have a sense that Africa is part of the clean energy going forward.
玛丽·罗宾森:世界银行 在很多方面做得还远远不够 比如为私人部门提供更多优惠性融资 认真考察有哪些项目需要投资 以及承担风险, 因为我们一定要认识到 非洲是清洁能源 向前迈进的重要组成部分
LL: Global finance isn't flowing at scale where it's needed most. How do we change that? Here's Zoë Knight of the HSBC Center for Sustainable Finance to explain two major roles that banks could play.
林赛·莱文:全球资金 并没有大规模流向最需要的地区 我们怎样才能改变这一现状? 汇丰银行可持续金融中心 的佐伊·奈特 将阐述银行在此过程中 能够扮演的两大角色
ZK: So the most immediate, pressing task that we have is to finance the transition, right? And banks are mission-critical to making that happen. And the reason for that is because we have two very powerful levers. The first is really to take environmental impact into account in the financing decisions that we take, and we're working on that. And the second is to really actively engage with the governments that we finance, the state-owned corporates that we finance and really work through how they can deliver their transition plan.
佐伊·奈特: 我们最紧迫的任务 就是为能源转型提供资金,对吗? 银行对于任务的完成是至关重要的 因为我们有两个强有力的杠杆 第一是在做融资决策时 要切实把环境因素纳入考虑之中 我们也正在努力 第二是积极与我们提供资金的 政府、国有企业联结 以他们能够完成能源转型的方式合作
So if we think about the next 10 to 15 years, the industrial landscape is going to look very different than it does from today, particularly in the case of energy. And we know that that's taking trillions of investment to make the shift. We need a trillion per year by the end of the decade to have half a semblance of being on track for net zero.
所以,如果我们展望未来10到15年 工业面貌会和今天非常不一样 特别是在能源领域 我们也知道这种变化 需要数万亿计的投资 这个十年结束前, 我们每年都要投入一万亿 才能有50%的可能迈上零排放的正轨
And let me be clear, one of the things that the financial system absolutely has to do is enable a science-aligned phase down of the financing of fossil fuels. We have to do that. But equally, we need to channel the capital that is being generated from the oil and gas industry for good purpose because we need the know-how of the sector and we need to make capital move in a way that's necessary.
明确地说 有一件事情金融系统必须做到 那就是科学地逐步减少 对于化石燃料的融资 我们势在必行 但同样 我们也需要将油气产业所产生的利润 导向有益的方向 因为我们需要这个领域的专业知识 也需要让资金以必要的方式流动
So think about this. The International Monetary Fund has just estimated that the Middle East oil and gas companies will generate an incremental 1.3 trillion [dollars] in revenues over the next four years. The banks and financiers can help move that money into renewables in a way that will make us achieve the net-zero ambition much, much faster.
所以想想吧 国际货币基金组织刚刚预估 在未来四年,中东地区的油气公司 会累计产生1.3万亿美元的收入 银行和金融家能够将这些资金 导入可再生能源领域 而这会让我们更快达到零排放的目标
DB: In any discussion on this topic, it's easy to get lost in the argument or focus entirely on the end goal. What's also critical is that we need more planning to get us off fossil fuels rapidly and without major disruptions that might undermine confidence in the energy transition itself. Here’s engineer and environmental sociologist Emily Grubert.
大卫·比尔洛: 在关于这一议题的讨论中 我们很容易就会在争执中迷失, 或者只关注最终目标 但同样重要的是, 我们也需要更有计划性 来更快摆脱化石燃料 不因能源转型过程中出现 的干扰而丧失信心 以下是工程师和环境社会学家 艾米丽·格鲁伯特的演讲
EG: If we succeed at reaching international climate goals, the fossil fuel infrastructure systems that support about 80 percent of global energy consumption will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades. What I'm talking about is big infrastructure like power plants and refineries, but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars, stoves and furnaces.
艾米丽·格鲁伯特: 如果我们完成国际气候目标 支撑全球约80%能源消耗 的化石燃料基础设施 就基本会在未来几十年内淘汰 我说的不仅是发电厂、 炼油厂这类大型设施 也包括加油站、私家车、 家用炉灶、工业熔炉等设备 化石燃料基础设施是 高风险行业建成的复杂网络
Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network of high-hazard industries that need to be able to continue to operate safely until the new system is completely ready to take over, including during emergencies complicated by climate change. Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous. We'd expect disproportionate harm to overburdened and underserved communities who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices, abandoned remediation plans and declining access to energy services. This means ongoing fossil expenditures and a reliance on highly-trained workers in industries that might not outlast their careers -- with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries as quickly as possible to address climate change and a host of other environmental injustices.
在新的能源系统完备之前 这些设施还需要保持安全运行 包括在因气候变化而加剧 的一系列紧急情况中也是如此 直接禁用这套能源系统 会引发混乱、危险的连锁反应 一些不堪重负、设施 及服务不完善的地区 反而会遭受更严重的冲击 他们将面对飙升的能源价格 废弃的补救计划 以及逐渐减少的能源供应却束手无策 这意味着我们还需持续投资化石燃料 并继续依赖相关产业的熟练工人 尽管这些工人以后可能要转行 同时,我们也要尽快淘汰 这些化石燃料工业 以应对气候变化以及许多 其他环境不公正现象 这就是为什么我们需要计划
This is why we need to plan. And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world where these urgently needed plans for phasing out the fossil system while phasing in the clean energy system exist. When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is: If we actually believed we were going to succeed, what would we need to be doing right now?
但是目前,世界上还没有任何一个地区 已经制定出了我们所急需 的淘汰化石能源体系 建立清洁能源体系的计划 当我们说气候目标时, 我想问的问题是: 如果我们真的相信我们最终将成功 那我们现在需要做什么呢?
One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements. Ample notice, say, a decade, gives communities enough time to create and implement plans, and a legislated end date gives people enough confidence to commit to what can be an intense process. I showed that in the United States, requiring all fossil fuel-fired power generators to close by 2035, which is President Biden's power sector decarbonization target, would actually allow the large majority of them to meet or exceed a typical lifespan, potentially giving communities some confidence that these deadlines are manageable. That is what earns and maintains trust. Not far-off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.
一个策略是,为淘汰 化石能源设施设定最后期限 给予各地区充分的时间,比如说十年 让各地区能够制定并实施各自的计划 而一个法定的最后期限 能够给予公众信心 让他们坚持完成这项紧迫任务 我展示过,在美国 拜登总统宣布了电力部门 的碳减排目标 到2035年,美国将停用 所有燃烧化石燃料的发电机组 这个目标考虑到了 绝大多数发电机组的使用寿命 让它们在适龄或超龄时淘汰 也潜在地让美国各地 对完成这一目标抱持信心 这就是获得信任、保持信任的方法 而非那种遥不可及、 实施方案模糊的减排目标
The alternative of unplanned transitions is unacceptable but common. Planning the transition is an ethical responsibility that takes time but also creates opportunities to implement a just and sustainable future that corrects the harms of the past. Collaboration and a laser-like focus on ensuring people have what we need to succeed through this transition will be critical, particularly as the transition collides with climate tragedies.
没有计划的能源转型 是难以让人接受的 但这又很普遍 为能源转型制定计划是 一种道德责任,这需要时间 但也为公平、可持续 的未来创造了机会 让我们能够纠正过去的错误 在确保公众能够通过 能源转型获得成功条件方面 精准聚焦并开展合作 是很重要的 特别是在这种能源转型 和气候灾害发生冲突时
What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?
如果我们相信自己能成功, 那我们现在要做什么呢?
Manish Bhardwaj: Emily Grubert said something which I'm going to, really sort of, take away, maybe even teach: that plans build trust.
玛尼什·巴德瓦吉: 艾米丽·格鲁伯特说的一点 让我深有感触, 甚至可以说深受教导 那就是计划会建立信任
Promises, you may not believe mine, I might not believe yours, but if we put something down, this is what we are going to do year after year, then I think that can build trust. I think that's just a beautiful thing that I'm carrying away from her.
你可能不会相信我的承诺 我也不会相信你的承诺 但如果我们把计划列出来 这就是我们此后每年要做的事 那我想,这是会建立信任的 我觉得这是我从她 的讲话中能看到的美好图景
LL: Emily challenged us to act like we're going to succeed. Ramez Naam, a technologist and entrepreneur, believes we have a real shot at it.
林赛·莱文:艾米丽对我们提出了考验, 让我们以成功为目的而行动 作为一位科技工作者和企业家 拉梅兹·纳姆认为我们应该放手一试
Renewables are plummeting in price, and there's opportunity to increase their share around the world if we get out of the way of progress. Here's some of his talk.
可再生能源的价格在下跌 如果我们不再人为设置阻碍 就有可能提升可再生能源 在全球的占比 以下是他的演讲
RN: Clean energy will win on cost definitively, but only if we get out of the way and allow it to be built. Let's focus on that first point. Let's look at the cost of clean energy technology. In 1975, if you were buying a solar panel per watt of power that it produced, it would cost you 100 US dollars. By 2020, that cost had declined to 20 cents per watt of power. That's a 500-fold decline. This is unlike anything else ever seen in energy. It is unlike anything else ever seen in physical infrastructure. And it continues today, and it is likely to continue for decades to come.
拉梅兹·纳姆: 毫无疑问,清洁能源成本更低 但前提是我们要清除障碍,任其发展 我们先来看看第一点 先看看清洁能源技术的成本 1975年 你买一块太阳能电池板, 它所生产的每瓦特电 成本都要100美元 到2020年 成本下降到20分每瓦特 下降了500倍 这在能源领域是绝无仅有的 在物理基础设施领域也是仅此一家 而如今这种趋势还在继续 在未来几十年,也将继续下去
Now, this has surprised the leading experts on clean energy and even the biggest optimists on the future of clean energy. We've seen the cost of batteries that power our electric vehicles and grid energy storage drop at the same pace or faster than the pace of solar. And we are just at the very beginning of an exponential cost decline in the cost of using clean electricity to make hydrogen and other fuels that we can use to power industry, to provide weeks or months of storage on the grid and to provide fuels we can use for aviation, for shipping and so on. Clean energy technologies are technologies, and they drop in cost like technology. As they are scaled, they come down in price. Meanwhile, fossil fuels are commodities, and fossil fuel prices fluctuate over time.
这种变化让清洁能源领域的权威专家 甚至是对清洁能源 的前景最为乐观的人都震惊不已 我们都见过新能源汽车 的电池能耗成本 电网储能消耗的速度 也和太阳能发电速度一样快,甚至更快 而使用清洁能源的成本 还会进一步呈指数型下跌 我们将能够用氢和 其他可以利用的燃料 来为工业提供动力 来生产足够使用数周 或数月的电网储能 来为航空、航海业提供燃料 还有等等其他用途 就像其他技术一样 清洁能源技术的成本也在下降 当这些技术推广开来,价格就会降低 同时,化石燃料也是商品 化石燃料的价格也会有所波动
But there's two barriers I want to talk about in particular, which are the reluctance to build -- not in my backyard -- and the challenges with permitting. Because we look at renewables and a common complaint is they take up too much land. All of us want clean energy infrastructure, but many of us don't want it in our backyard.
但我想特别谈谈清洁能源 推广的两个壁垒 第一是建设难度 不是说随便在我家后院就能建 以及许可难度 因为一般对于可再生能源的批评都是 占地面积太大 大家都想要清洁能源设施 但是都不想在自己家建
In winter you have one-seventh the solar resource in the UK that you have in summer. You have one-sixth the solar resource in Germany that you have in summer. So every model, every simulation of weather and energy demand shows this. It shows that if you want to have the highest reliability grid at the lowest cost with the least carbon emissions and the most clean energy deployment, you want to build a continent-sized grid.
在英国,冬季太阳能资源 只有夏季的1/7 在德国,这个数字是1/6 所以每一种预测模型 每一项天气模拟分析 和能源需求都显示 如果要建设最可靠的电网 同时成本要低、碳排放要少 清洁能源部署要尽可能多 那么我们只能建一个大洲级别的电网
In China, the bulk of energy demand is on the East Coast, yet the greatest solar resources and wind resources are in the interior. And China is building literally scores of high-voltage power lines that transmit power from where the sun and wind are to the coasts, where the energy demand is. And the longest of these lines right now, that Ürümqi to Shanghai line, is 3,400 kilometers long. It is 90 percent efficient, very low losses, and it adds maybe a penny or two to the cost of electricity. That's what's technically feasible with current technology, let alone advances.
在中国,能源需求主体是在东部沿海 但最优质的太阳能 和风能却在内陆地区 中国正在铺设大量的高压电缆 将电从太阳能和风能富集地 输送到电能需求大的沿海地区 目前,这些电缆中最长的 连通乌鲁木齐和上海, 总长3,400公里 损耗率非常低,只有10% 只会让用电成本上升一点点 这就是目前我们 的技术能够做到的事 更不用说技术还在继续发展
In Europe, that would allow us to transmit electricity from Seville to Copenhagen. To bring power from the North Sea to anywhere in the continent that needs it. In my home country, the United States, we could bring power from the sunny, wide open areas of New Mexico to population and land-dense New York, which doesn't get so much sun. And we could take wind power from the Great Plains, that are largely devoid of population, and bring it to the coasts in winter.
在欧洲,这种技术能支持我们 把电从塞维利亚输送到哥本哈根 从北海输送到欧洲大陆 任何需要电的地方 在我的家乡美国 我们能把电从日照丰富、 地广人稀的新墨西哥州 输送到人口密集、寸土寸金 太阳能却不太丰富的纽约 也能在人口稀少的北美大平原上 利用风能发电 然后在冬天把电输送到东西海岸
That is what a modern grid looks like. And yet we are not building this. It is time for us to build.
这就是现代电网 我们还没有建设起来 现在是时候行动了
DB: With technology advancing as fast as it is, there’s certainly hope that we can meet our energy transition goals, and there are ways to ensure that everyone benefits in this transition.
大卫·比尔洛: 随着科技飞速发展 毫无疑问,我们有希望 达成能源转型目标 也有办法确保每个人 都能从这种转型中获益
But it's going to be challenging.
但这个过程还是充满挑战
LL: There's no shortage of ideas, but time is running out, making it all the more critical to collaborate with urgency and resolve this fundamental dilemma. Here, again, are some leading voices on how we get there.
林赛·莱文:我们可以 有各种想法,但时间不等人 这让紧急合作和解决根本性难题 更加重要 以下是关于如何达成 这一目标的创见性发言
MR: We all need to do three things. We need to make the climate crisis very personal in our lives, change our habits a bit as a result. Secondly, we need to get angry about those who aren't doing enough. And thirdly, we need to imagine this world that is round the corner.
玛丽·罗宾森: 我们都需要做到三件事 我们要从个人生活 的角度看待气候危机 改变自己的习惯 第二,我们要对那些 没有尽力的人保持愤怒 第三,我们要对即将 到来的世界付以想象
ZK: Every year I can see more focus from different actors that are needed to be part of the solution.
佐伊·奈特:每年我都能 看到不同参与者的更多关注 这正是解决问题的一部分
LT: Renewable energy is a good business in many places.
劳伦斯·图比亚纳: 在很多地区,可再生能源大有商机
HM: There is a strong business case for it. It makes investment sense.
希山·蒙多尔: 这是一个强有力的商业案例 投资会做出判断
HL: China is adding an astonishing amount of wind and solar to its grid every year.
刘虹桥:中国每年都向电网 增加输送大量的风能、太阳能发电
RN: It's cheaper to build a new solar or wind farm than it is to put fuel into a natural gas plant or a coal plant.
拉梅兹·纳姆: 新建一座风能或太阳能发电厂 要比为天然气 或煤炭发电厂提供燃料便宜
TB: Our job has to be to make sure that politicians know that they're going to have the support that they need for the hard policies.
采波拉·波尔曼: 我们的工作应该是 确保政治家们知道, 如果他们要推行一些艰难的政策 他们会得到支持
LN: We need people to get on board in a fight for climate justice. And this means getting people on board that have never spoken to each other before and that have always disagreed. MB: Even at this conference, you will meet people and you expect them to have very particular sort of, polar stance. But when you actually get into a conversation, you see the openings.
路易莎·纽鲍尔: 我们需要公众都参与进来, 一起抵御气候不公正现象 这意味着要让完全不认识 或者互相不认同的人一起合作 玛尼什·巴德瓦吉:甚至在这样 的大会上,你会遇到各种各样的人 你以为他们的观点两极分化 但当你真的参与对话时 你会发现他们的态度都很开放
CA: I love listening to people with different points of view. Dialogue is absolutely essential and so generative. But once we leave the safe space of this conversation, we go back out into a world that is rife with power dynamics and institutionalized, structural inequities. And we have to just acknowledge that fact.
凯瑟琳·阿布鲁: 我喜欢听人们讲述不同观点 对话毫无疑问 是很重要、很有启发性的 但一旦我们离开了对话的安全区域 我们就会回到一个充斥着权力动态 以及制度性、结构性不平等的世界 而我们要知道这一事实
RN: So I think it's not a bad thing to listen and then apply your own judgment to what you've heard. And is it self-serving or not, and what nuggets of truth or what pieces of data are there?
拉梅兹·纳姆: 所以我想,我们可以倾听 然后基于我们听到的说法, 给出自己的判断 这是否太自私了? 其中又包含哪些事实或者数据?
MB: What we don't want to lose is that ultimately there are people at the heart of systems. And systems change will sometimes fail just because two folks cannot get along with each other.
玛尼什·巴德瓦吉: 归根结底,所有系统的核心都是人 这是我们不想失去的部分 有时候系统转型的失败 仅仅是因为两个 相关人员无法和平相处
Jade Begay: I think we overlook relationship building as kind of cheesy or corny, but ask any person who’s built change over time, and it happens through relationships.
贾德·比盖: 我想我们忽视了关系的建立 觉得拉关系虚伪又陈腐 但是所有达成变革的人 都是通过人际关系完成的
MR: I was very affected, as were the other women leaders, when Jade said, "In our tribe in New Mexico, we say, 'What if our best times are still ahead of us?'"
玛丽·罗宾森:当贾德说, “在我们新墨西哥,我们会说 好日子还在后头呢” 我和其他的女性领导者都很受感染
Our best times are still ahead of us. But so are our worst times. We have that choice. And of course, we have to choose our best times and we have to know how difficult it is. And yet, Nelson Mandela famously said "it always seems impossible until it is done." And I love that phrase.
我们的好日子的确还在后头 但现在,我们还处在最坏的时候 我们可以做出改变 当然,我们要选择好日子 也要知道要过上“好日子”有多难 但是,纳尔逊·曼德拉曾有名言 “在成功之前,一切总看似不可能” 我非常喜欢这句话