One winter morning, a couple of years ago, I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa, and noticed a haze hanging over the city. I make that drive on most days, so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before. Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline, which I could barely see that morning. It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud of air pollution. The contrast between the scenic environment I knew and this smog-covered skyline stirred up something within me. I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets being overrun by a dull haze. At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it, but I didn't know what. All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.
幾年前的一個冬天早晨, 我開車去上班,地點是 南非的約翰尼斯堡, 我注意到全市籠罩在霧霾中。 我幾乎天天會駛過那條路, 但以前都沒注意到這現象, 這點很不尋常。 約翰尼斯堡以特別的天際線聞名, 那天早上卻幾乎看不見。 沒多久,我就意會過來了, 原來我看到的是一大片 空氣污染。 我所知道的景色和這被煙霧遮蓋的 天際線之間有明顯對比, 讓我內心產生起伏。 我擔心很有可能, 這個有著鮮明生動日落的城市 會被晦暗的霧霾壟照。 那時,我有個衝動,想要做點什麼, 但我不知道該做什麼。 我只知道,我不能袖手旁觀。
The main challenge was, I didn't know much about environmental science air-quality management or atmospheric chemistry. I am a computer engineer, and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.
主要的難處在於, 我不太了解環境科學、 空氣品質管理, 或大氣化學。 我是電腦工程師, 我很確定,空氣污染問題 不能靠寫程式解決。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Who was I to do anything about this issue? I was but a citizen.
我算哪根蔥, 能為這個議題做出貢獻? 我不過是個市井小民。
In the following years, I learned a very important lesson, a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future. Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain, your outside expertise may hold the key to solving big problems within that domain. Sometimes the unique perspective you have can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle, but you need to be bold enough to try. That's the only way you'll ever know.
接下來幾年,我學到了 很重要的一課, 若想要努力朝更好的未來邁進, 我們都應該把這一課銘記在心。 即使你不是特定領域的專家, 你在外面的專長有可能反而是 在該領域中解決重大問題的關鍵。 有時,你獨有的觀點, 會帶來不一樣的非慣例思考, 進而左右局勢, 但你得要有膽識去嘗試。 那是唯一能知道結果的方式。
What I knew back then was that if I was even going to try to make a difference, I had to get smart about air pollution first, and so I became a student again. I did a bit of basic research and soon learned that air pollution is the world's biggest environmental health risk. Data from the World Health Organization shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012 were attributable to household and ambient air pollution, with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year than malaria and HIV/AIDS. In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation or childhood malnutrition pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution, and it comes at a huge economic cost: over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013, according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
那時,我知道的是, 如果我要去嘗試造成改變, 我得先要對空氣污染有多一點知識, 所以,我又回去當學生了。 我做了一點基本的研究, 很快就發現,空氣污染 是世界上最大的環境健康風險。 來自世界衛生組織的資料顯示 2012 年全世界 所有的死亡中,有近 14% 都是因為家庭及環境的 空氣污染所造成, 大多數都發生在中低收入的國家。 每年,單單是環境空氣 污染所造成的死亡數 就超過瘧疾和愛滋病。 在非洲,因為衛生不夠安全 或兒時營養不良造成的過早死亡, 完全比不上空氣污染造成的死亡, 且這背後的經濟成本代價非常大: 2013 年就超過四千億美元, 這數據來自經濟合作暨 發展組織的研究報告。
Now, in my work, I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence, where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions. As I thought about the air pollution problem, it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions about how we manage air pollution, and given the scale of the problem, it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way. So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field. I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg and other surrounding cities, and I engaged the local scientific community, and I also made a few cold calls. The process of engagement I embarked upon helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem. It also helped me to avoid the trap people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate, where we are quick to apply a technology before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.
在我的工作中, 我要為人工智慧去探索新境界, 要讓人類和機器之間的共生關係 能夠找到有益的立足點, 並協助我們做更好的決策。 當我在思考空氣污染問題時, 我發現我們需要找到 一種比較好的決策方法, 來決定我們要如何管理空氣污染, 且問題的規模既然這麼大, 勢必得要用協同合作的方式來進行。 所以,我決定,我最好能認識 一些在那個領域中工作的人。 我開始跟約翰尼斯堡 以及周圍其他城市的官員交流, 我也去參加當地的科學社區, 我也打了一些推銷電話。 我所參與的這個過程, 協助我發展出對這個問題 更深一層的了解。 它也協助我避開我這一行的人 在試圖創新時常會落入的陷阱, 我們會很快就應用一種技術, 卻還沒有對手上的問題 有完全的了解。
I began to develop an idea about what I could do to improve the situation. I started by simply asking myself how I could bring together in some meaningful way my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to. I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform that would uncover trends in pollution and project into the future to determine what outcomes can be expected. I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution, but I faced uncertainty and had no guarantee of success. What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills, skills I'd acquired over my career
我開始萌生出一個點子, 我想出了我能做什麼 來改善這個情況。 一開始,我只是問我自己, 我要如何用某種有意義的方式, 把我在軟體工程和人工智慧的技能, 和我去接觸的人的專長做結合。 我想要創建一個線上的 空氣品質管理平台, 它能夠發現污染中的趨勢, 用來做未來預測, 來判斷可能會發生的結果。 我很堅決要讓我的想法 變成實際的解決方案, 但我要面對不確定性, 且無法保證一定會成功。 我擁有的,是非常 特別的一組工程技能, 在我的職涯中取得的技能,
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem for so many years. What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective, one new skill set, can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen. Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light, enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.
對於多年來都在處理 空氣污染問題的那些人, 我的技能是全新的。 我漸漸了解,有時候, 只要有一個新鮮的觀點, 一組新的技能, 就可以改變條件, 讓很了不起的事情能夠發生。 我們的意志力和想像力 是引導我們的光, 讓我們能在地圖上畫出新路徑, 引導我們穿過障礙。
Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem, and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data on air pollutant levels and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg, my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself created an air-quality decision support system that lives in the cloud. This software system analyzes historical and real-time data to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution. We then used new machine learning technology to predict future levels of pollution for several different pollutants days in advance. This means that citizens can make better decisions about their daily movements and about where to settle their families. We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time, identify heavy polluters, and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities to scale back their operations. Through assisted scenario planning, city planners can also make better decisions about how to extend infrastructure, such as human settlements or industrial zones.
在對於空氣污染問題 有更紮實的了解之後, 且找到辦法取得了超過十年的資料, 上面記錄約翰尼斯堡及其周圍地區 空氣污染程度和氣象條件, 我和南非及中國的同事一起 創建了一個空氣品質決策支援系統, 放在雲端。 這項軟體系統能分析 歷史資料和即時資料, 找出在污染中的 「空間—時間」趨勢。 接著,我們採用新的機器學習技術, 來預測未來的污染程度, 能針對好幾種污染物, 在幾天前就做出預測。 這意味著,市民能做出更好的決策, 決定他們每天的活動, 決定要將家人安置在何處。 我們能夠事先預測有害的污染事件, 辨識出嚴重的污染源, 如此一來,相關當權機關就可以下令 要求它們重新調整營運。 透過協助性質的情境規劃, 都市計畫員也能做出更好的決策, 決定如何將基礎建設做延伸, 比如人類住區或工業區。
We completed a pilot of our technology that was run over a period of 120 days, covering all of South Africa. Our results were confirmed when we demonstrated a tight correlation between the forecasting data and the data we were getting on the ground. Through our leadership, we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets that can perform air-quality forecasting at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy, benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago, and thought to myself, "Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"
我們已經完成了這項技術的測試版, 執行了 120 天, 含蓋了整個南非。 我們的結果得到了確認, 因為我們得以呈現出在預測資料 和我們從地面取得的實際資料 之間有著密切的相關性。 透過我們的領導, 我們帶來了引領世界的尖端資產, 能進行空氣品質預測, 解析度和正確率都是前所未見的, 讓我不久之前在冬天早晨 開車進入的那個城市能夠受惠, 那時我還心想: 「這裡出了某種問題。 不知道我能做什麼?」
So here is the point: What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further? What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter? What I have learned is that, when embarking on a challenging endeavor that advances a cause that we firmly believe in, it is important to focus on the possibility of success and consider the consequence of not acting. We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition, but this should motivate us further.
所以,重點是, 若我當初沒有進一步調查 空氣污染的問題,會如何? 若我當初沒有去關心環境狀況, 而只是希望某個地方的某個人 會把事情處理好,會如何? 我所學到的是, 當要著手進行一項很有挑戰性 且能夠推動我們堅信之理念的嘗試時, 重要的是要把焦點放在 成功的可能性上, 並去思考不採取行動會有什麼後果。 我們不應被抗拒和反對給分心, 這反而應該會更進一步激勵我們。
So wherever you are in the world, the next time you find that there's some natural curiosity you have that is being piqued, and it's about something you care about, and you have some crazy or bold ideas, and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise, ask yourself this: Why not? Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem as best as you can, in your own way? You may be pleasantly surprised.
所以,不論你在世界的哪個角落, 下一次,當你發現 你天生的某種好奇心被激起時, 且它和你在乎的事物有關, 且你有某種瘋狂或大膽的點子, 也許它超出了你的專業領域, 記得,問問自己這個問題: 為什麼不? 為什麼不用你自己的方式, 盡你所能,放手一搏 去處理那個問題? 你可能會得到很棒的驚喜。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)