One winter morning, a couple of years ago, I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa, and noticed a haze hanging over the city. I make that drive on most days, so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before. Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline, which I could barely see that morning. It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud of air pollution. The contrast between the scenic environment I knew and this smog-covered skyline stirred up something within me. I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets being overrun by a dull haze. At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it, but I didn't know what. All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.
Jednog zimskog jutra, pre par godina, vozio sam se na posao u Johanesburgu u Južnoj Africi i primetio maglu iznad grada. Vozim se tim putem skoro svakodnevno, tako da je bilo neobično što nisam to ranije primetio. Johanesburg je poznat po prepoznatljivom prizoru zgrada na horizontu koji sam jedva mogao videti tog jutra. Ubrzo sam shvatio da sam gledao u ogroman oblak zagađenog vazduha. Kontrast između lepe okoline koju sam poznavao i ovog horizonta prekrivenog maglom uzburkao je nešto u meni. Bio sam užasnut mogućnošću da ovaj grad sa jarkim i živopisnim zalascima sunca prekrije tmurna izmaglica. Tog trenutka sam osetio potrebu da uradim nešto u vezi sa time, ali nisam znao šta. Jedino sam znao da ne mogu samo da mirno stojim po strani.
The main challenge was, I didn't know much about environmental science air-quality management or atmospheric chemistry. I am a computer engineer, and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.
Glavni problem je bio to što nisam znao mnogo toga o ekologiji, upravljanju kvalitetom vazduha, niti o hemiji atmosfere. Ja sam računarski inženjer i bio sam prilično siguran da ne mogu da programiram rešenje problema zagađenosti vazduha.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Who was I to do anything about this issue? I was but a citizen.
Ko sam ja da nešto preduzmem u vezi sa ovim problemom? Samo običan građanin.
In the following years, I learned a very important lesson, a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future. Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain, your outside expertise may hold the key to solving big problems within that domain. Sometimes the unique perspective you have can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle, but you need to be bold enough to try. That's the only way you'll ever know.
Predstojećih godina sam naučio veoma važnu lekciju, lekciju koju svi treba da usvojimo ako hoćemo da radimo na boljoj budućnosti. Čak i ako niste stručnjak u određenoj oblasti, u vašoj nepovezanoj stručnosti može biti ključ rešavanja velikih problema u okviru date oblasti. Ponekad iz vaše jedinstvene perspektive može proisteći neuobičajeno razmišljanje koje može biti od značaja, ali morate biti dovoljno smeli da to pokušate. To je jedini način da saznate.
What I knew back then was that if I was even going to try to make a difference, I had to get smart about air pollution first, and so I became a student again. I did a bit of basic research and soon learned that air pollution is the world's biggest environmental health risk. Data from the World Health Organization shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012 were attributable to household and ambient air pollution, with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year than malaria and HIV/AIDS. In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation or childhood malnutrition pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution, and it comes at a huge economic cost: over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013, according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Ono što sam tada znao je da, ako hoću da uopšte probam da donesem promenu, moram da se najpre upoznam sa zagađivanjem vazduha, pa sam tako ponovo postao učenik. Sproveo sam malo osnovnog istraživanja i ubrzo sam saznao da je zagađenje vazduha najveći rizik po zdravlje životne sredine u svetu. Podaci Svetske zdravstvene organizacije pokazuju da se 2012. godine skoro 14 odsto svih smrtnih slučajeva u svetu moglo pripisati zagađenosti vazduha u domaćinstvu ili okolini, pri čemu je to najzastupljenije u zemljama sa niskim i srednjim dohotkom. Samo zagađenost vazduha sredine izaziva više smrtnih slučajeva svake godine od malarije i side. U Africi su prerane smrti zbog neodgovarajuće higijene i neuhranjenosti u detinjstvu ništa u odnosu na smrti usled zagađenosti vazduha, a uz to ide i ogromna ekonomska cena: preko 400 milijarde američkih dolara od 2013. godine prema istraživanju Organizacije za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj.
Now, in my work, I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence, where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions. As I thought about the air pollution problem, it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions about how we manage air pollution, and given the scale of the problem, it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way. So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field. I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg and other surrounding cities, and I engaged the local scientific community, and I also made a few cold calls. The process of engagement I embarked upon helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem. It also helped me to avoid the trap people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate, where we are quick to apply a technology before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.
U svom radu istražujem novine u oblasti veštačke inteligencije, gde simbiotska veza između čoveka i mašine može uspostaviti korisne osnove i pomoći nam da donosimo bolje odluke. Dok sam razmišljao o problemu zagađivanja vazduha, postalo mi je jasno da je potrebno da nađemo način da donosimo bolje odluke o tome kako kontrolišemo zagađivanje vazduha, a imajući u vidu razmere problema, neophodno je da to uradimo uz saradnju. Zato sam rešio da treba da se upoznam sa ljudima koji rade u ovoj oblasti. Počeo sam da razgovaram sa zvaničnicima grada Johanesburga i drugih okolnih gradova, angažovao sam lokalnu naučnu zajednicu, a inicirao sam i nekoliko poziva. Proces pozivanja na akciju u koji sam se upustio pomogao mi je da razvijem dublje razumevanje problema. Takođe mi je pomogao da izbegnem zamku u koju ponekad upadaju ljudi iz moje profesije kada pokušavaju da unose novine, pri čemu brzo primenjujemo tehnologiju pre nego što smo zaista spoznali problem koji je pred nama.
I began to develop an idea about what I could do to improve the situation. I started by simply asking myself how I could bring together in some meaningful way my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to. I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform that would uncover trends in pollution and project into the future to determine what outcomes can be expected. I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution, but I faced uncertainty and had no guarantee of success. What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills, skills I'd acquired over my career
Počeo sam da razvijam ideju o tome šta mogu da uradim da poboljšam situaciju. Počeo sam jednostavno se zapitavši kako mogu da na neki smisleni način spojim svoje veštine iz softverskog inženjeringa i veštačke inteligencije sa stručnošću ljudi kojima sam se obraćao. Hteo sam napravim onlajn platformu za upravljanje kvalitetom vazduha koja bi pokazala tendencije u zagađivanju i pravila predviđanja za budućnost da bi se ustanovilo kakvi ishodi se mogu očekivati. Bio sam rešen da vidim kako moja ideja prerasta u praktično rešenje, ali sam naišao na neizvesnost i nisam imao garancije za uspeh. Imao sam veoma specifičan skup inženjerskih veština koje sam stekao tokom svoje karijere,
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem for so many years. What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective, one new skill set, can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen. Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light, enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.
koje su bile novina za ljude koji su godinama radili na problemu zagađivanja vazduha. Shvatio sam da ponekad samo jedna nova perspektiva, jedan novi skup veština, može stvoriti uslove da se desi nešto izuzetno. Snaga naše volje i naša mašta su vodilje koje nam omogućavaju da ucrtamo nove putanje i nađemo put kroz prepreke.
Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem, and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data on air pollutant levels and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg, my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself created an air-quality decision support system that lives in the cloud. This software system analyzes historical and real-time data to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution. We then used new machine learning technology to predict future levels of pollution for several different pollutants days in advance. This means that citizens can make better decisions about their daily movements and about where to settle their families. We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time, identify heavy polluters, and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities to scale back their operations. Through assisted scenario planning, city planners can also make better decisions about how to extend infrastructure, such as human settlements or industrial zones.
Naoružani boljim razumevanjem problema zagađivanja vazduha i pošto smo uspeli da prikupimo podatke tokom čitave jedne decenije o nivoima prisutnosti zagađivača vazduha i meteorološkim uslovima za Johanesburg i okolinu, moje kolege iz Južne Afrike i Kine i ja smo stvorili sistem podrške za donošenje odluka o kvalitetu vazduha koji je smešten u oblaku. Ovaj softverski sistem analizira prošle i aktuelne podatke da bi otkrio tendencije zagađivanja u prostoru i vremenu. Zatim smo upotrebili novu tehnologiju mašinskog učenja da bismo predvideli buduće nivoe zagađivanja za više različitih zagađivača danima unapred. Ovo znači da građani mogu donositi bolje odluke o svojim kretanjima tokom dana i o tome gde da nastane svoje porodice. Možemo da unapred predvidimo slučajeve zagađivanja, da identifikujemo teške zagađivače, a nadležni organi im mogu narediti da umanje svoje delovanje. Kroz pomoćno planiranje scenarija, urbanisti takođe mogu donositi bolje odluke o tome kako proširiti infrastrukturu kao što su ljudska naselja ili industrijske zone.
We completed a pilot of our technology that was run over a period of 120 days, covering all of South Africa. Our results were confirmed when we demonstrated a tight correlation between the forecasting data and the data we were getting on the ground. Through our leadership, we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets that can perform air-quality forecasting at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy, benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago, and thought to myself, "Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"
Završili smo probu naše tehnologije sprovedenu tokom perioda od 120 dana, koja je pokrila celu Južnu Afriku. Naši rezultati su potvrđeni kada smo pokazali usku korelaciju između podataka predviđanja i podataka koje smo dobijali na terenu. Kroz naše liderstvo doneli smo savremena, vodeća sredstva u svetu koja mogu sprovesti prognozu kvaliteta vazduha uz neviđenu rezoluciju i preciznost, što je od koristi gradu u koji sam se dovezao jednog zimskog jutra ne tako davno i pomislio: „Nešto ovde nije u redu. Pitam se šta se može preduzeti.“
So here is the point: What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further? What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter? What I have learned is that, when embarking on a challenging endeavor that advances a cause that we firmly believe in, it is important to focus on the possibility of success and consider the consequence of not acting. We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition, but this should motivate us further.
Evo u čemu je poenta. Šta da nisam više istražio problem zagađivanja vazduha? Šta da nisam pokazao zabrinutost za stanje životne sredine i nadao se da neko negde radi na tom problemu? Uvideo sam da, kada krenemo na težak poduhvat kojim se unapređuje misija u koju čvrsto verujemo, važno je fokusirati se na mogućnost uspeha i razmotriti posledice nepreduzimanja akcije. Ne treba da nas ometaju otpor i suprotstavljanje, već treba da nas dodatno motivišu.
So wherever you are in the world, the next time you find that there's some natural curiosity you have that is being piqued, and it's about something you care about, and you have some crazy or bold ideas, and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise, ask yourself this: Why not? Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem as best as you can, in your own way? You may be pleasantly surprised.
Dakle, gde god da se nalazite u svetu, sledeći put kada vidite da postoji neka vaša prirodna radoznalost koja je podstaknuta i radi se o nečemu do čega vam je stalo, a imate neke lude ili smele ideje i možda je izvan vaše stručne oblasti, zapitajte se: zašto da ne? Zašto ne krenuti i pozabaviti se problemom što bolje možete, na svoj način? Možda se prijatno iznenadite.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)