One winter morning, a couple of years ago, I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa, and noticed a haze hanging over the city. I make that drive on most days, so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before. Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline, which I could barely see that morning. It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud of air pollution. The contrast between the scenic environment I knew and this smog-covered skyline stirred up something within me. I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets being overrun by a dull haze. At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it, but I didn't know what. All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.
Jednog zimskog jutra prije nekoliko godina vozio sam se na posao u Johannesburg, Južnoafrička Republika, i zamijetio maglu nad gradom. Vozim se onuda gotovo svakoga dana pa je bilo neobično da to ranije nisam zamijetio. Johannesburg ima prepoznatljiv izgled na horizontu koji sam toga jutra jedva razaznavao. Ubrzo sam shvatio da je preda mnom ogroman oblak onečišćenoga zraka. Suprotnost između lijepog krajolika kojeg sam poznavao i ovoga horizonta prekrivenog smogom, izazvala je u meni vrtlog dojmova. Zaprepastila me mogućnost da ovaj grad sjajnih i jasnih zalazaka sunca bude prekriven gustom maglom. Toga sam trena osjetio potrebu da nešto poduzmem u vezi s time, ali nisam znao što. Znao sam jedino to da ne mogu sjediti skrštenih ruku.
The main challenge was, I didn't know much about environmental science air-quality management or atmospheric chemistry. I am a computer engineer, and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.
Glavni izazov bio je taj da nisam mnogo znao o znanosti o okolišu, upravljanju kvalitetom zraka ili atmosferskoj kemiji. Ja sam računalni inženjer i bio sam prilično siguran da ne mogu naći kôd za izlaz iz ovog ekološkog problema.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Who was I to do anything about this issue? I was but a citizen.
Tko sam ja uopće da bih učinio išta po ovom pitanju? Bio sam običan građanin.
In the following years, I learned a very important lesson, a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future. Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain, your outside expertise may hold the key to solving big problems within that domain. Sometimes the unique perspective you have can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle, but you need to be bold enough to try. That's the only way you'll ever know.
Tijekom narednih godina naučio sam vrlo važnu lekciju, lekciju koju svi moramo uzeti srcu ako želimo graditi bolju budućnost. Čak i ako niste stručnjak u određenom području, vaša stručnost iz drugih područja može biti ključna za rješavanje velikih problema u tom području. Ponekad, vaše jedinstveno viđenje stvari može rezultirati nekonvencionalnim razmišljanjem koje će potaknuti promjenu, ali treba imati dovoljno hrabrosti i pokušati. Jedino ćete tako znati.
What I knew back then was that if I was even going to try to make a difference, I had to get smart about air pollution first, and so I became a student again. I did a bit of basic research and soon learned that air pollution is the world's biggest environmental health risk. Data from the World Health Organization shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012 were attributable to household and ambient air pollution, with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year than malaria and HIV/AIDS. In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation or childhood malnutrition pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution, and it comes at a huge economic cost: over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013, according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
U to sam vrijeme znao da, ako želim makar pokušati promijeniti stvari, moram prvo steći znanje o onečišćenju zraka. I tako sam ponovno postao student. Proučio sam osnove i ubrzo spoznao da je onečišćenje zraka najveći ekološki zdravstveni rizik na svijetu. Podaci Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije pokazuju da je gotovo 14 posto svih smrtnih slučajeva u svijetu u 2012. uzrokovano onečišćenjem zraka u zatvorenim i otvorenim prostorima, najviše u zemljama niskih i srednjih prihoda. Samo onečišćenje zraka na otvorenom uzrokuje više smrtnih slučajeva godišnje nego malarija i HIV/AIDS zajedno. U Africi, preuranjene smrti uslijed nedovoljno sigurnih zdravstvenih mjera ili pothranjenosti djece blijede u usporedbi sa smrtima uzrokovanim onečišćenjem zraka, uz što ide i ogroman gospodarski trošak: preko 400 milijardi US dolara od 2013., prema istraživanju Organizacije za ekonomsku suradnju i razvoj.
Now, in my work, I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence, where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions. As I thought about the air pollution problem, it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions about how we manage air pollution, and given the scale of the problem, it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way. So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field. I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg and other surrounding cities, and I engaged the local scientific community, and I also made a few cold calls. The process of engagement I embarked upon helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem. It also helped me to avoid the trap people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate, where we are quick to apply a technology before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.
U svome radu istražujem nove granice umjetne inteligencije, pri čemu simbiotski odnos između čovjeka i stroja može pronaći djelotvorno uporište i pomoći nam donositi bolje odluke. Razmišljajući o problemu onečišćenja zraka, postalo mi je jasno da trebamo pronaći način kako donositi bolje odluke o načinima rješavanja onečišćenja zraka, i, obzirom na veličinu problema, bila je nužna suradnja po tom pitanju. Tako sam odlučio bolje upoznati neke ljude koji rade u tom području. Počeo sam razgovarati sa službenicima Grada Johannesburga i drugih okolnih gradova te sam uključio lokalnu znanstvenu zajednicu, a uputio sam i nekoliko nenajavljenih poziva. Aktivnosti u koje sam se upustio po ovom pitanju, pomogle su mi dublje razumjeti problem. Pomogle su mi i izbjeći zamku, u koju ponekad upadaju ljudi iz moje profesije pri pokušaju inovacija, kada brzamo s primjenom neke tehnologije, prije nego temeljito sagledamo problem.
I began to develop an idea about what I could do to improve the situation. I started by simply asking myself how I could bring together in some meaningful way my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to. I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform that would uncover trends in pollution and project into the future to determine what outcomes can be expected. I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution, but I faced uncertainty and had no guarantee of success. What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills, skills I'd acquired over my career
Počeo sam razvijati ideju o tome kako unaprijediti situaciju. Počeo sam tako da sam se zapitao kako bih mogao smisleno povezati svoje vještine programiranja softvera i umjetne inteligencije, sa stručnošću ljudi koje sam kontaktirao. Želio sam stvoriti online platformu za upravljanje kvalitetom zraka, koja bi otkrivala trendove onečišćenja i predviđala buduća kretanja radi određivanja očekivanih ishoda. Bio sam odlučan u tome da se moja ideja provede u praktično rješenje, ali sve je izgledalo nesigurno i ništa nije jamčilo uspjeh. Raspolagao sam vrlo određenim skupom inženjerskih vještina, vještina stečenih tijekom karijere,
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem for so many years. What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective, one new skill set, can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen. Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light, enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.
koje su bile novost ljudima koji su problem onečišćenja zraka rješavali tolike godine. Shvatio sam tada da ponekad samo jedno novo viđenje stvari, jedan novi skup vještina, može stvoriti prave uvjete da se dogodi nešto značajno. Snaga naše volje i mašte su svjetlo koje nas vodi, omogućujući nam ucrtavanje novih puteva i prelaženje prepreka.
Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem, and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data on air pollutant levels and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg, my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself created an air-quality decision support system that lives in the cloud. This software system analyzes historical and real-time data to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution. We then used new machine learning technology to predict future levels of pollution for several different pollutants days in advance. This means that citizens can make better decisions about their daily movements and about where to settle their families. We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time, identify heavy polluters, and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities to scale back their operations. Through assisted scenario planning, city planners can also make better decisions about how to extend infrastructure, such as human settlements or industrial zones.
Bolje shvativši problem onečišćenja zraka i uz prikupljene podatke o razinama zagađenja zraka više od desetljeća unazad te o meteorološkim uvjetima u i oko Johannesburga, moje kolege iz JAR-a i Kine i ja stvorili smo sustav podrške odlučivanju o kvaliteti zraka koji se nalazi u oblaku. Ovaj softverski sustav analizira prošle podatke i one u realnom vremenu radi otkrivanja prostorno-vremenskih trendova zagađenja. Zatim smo upotrijebili novu tehnologiju strojnog učenja, kako bismo predvidjeli buduće razine onečišćenja za nekoliko različitih zagađivača danima unaprijed. To znači da građani mogu donositi bolje odluke o svom dnevnom kretanju i o tome gdje će se naseliti s obiteljima. Možemo predvidjeti štetna onečišćenja, prepoznati teške zagađivače, kojima mjerodavne vlasti mogu naložiti da smanje svoje djelatnosti. Putem potpomognutog predviđanja scenarija i urbanisti mogu donositi bolje odluke o tome kako proširiti infrastrukturu, poput stambenih jedinica ili industrijskih zona.
We completed a pilot of our technology that was run over a period of 120 days, covering all of South Africa. Our results were confirmed when we demonstrated a tight correlation between the forecasting data and the data we were getting on the ground. Through our leadership, we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets that can perform air-quality forecasting at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy, benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago, and thought to myself, "Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"
Testirali smo svoju tehnologiju kroz pilot-istraživanje koje je trajalo 120 dana, pokrivajući cijelu Južnoafričku Republiku. Rezultate je potvrdila snažna korelacija koju smo utvrdili između podataka iz prognoze i podataka prikupljenih na tlu. Kroz naše smo vodstvo stvorili najsuvremenije sredstvo, vodeće u svijetu, za predviđanje kvalitete zraka do sada nezabilježene razlučivosti i točnosti, koristeći gradu prema kojem sam se vozio jednog zimskog jutra, ne tako davno i mislio si, "Nešto je ovdje pogrešno. Pitam se što se može učiniti?"
So here is the point: What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further? What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter? What I have learned is that, when embarking on a challenging endeavor that advances a cause that we firmly believe in, it is important to focus on the possibility of success and consider the consequence of not acting. We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition, but this should motivate us further.
Dakle, ovo je bit: Što bi bilo da nisam dalje istraživao problem onečišćenja zraka? Što da nisam pokazao brigu za stanje okoliša i da sam se samo nadao da se netko, negdje, brine o rješavanju tog pitanja? Naučio sam da, kada se upuštamo u izazovan poduhvat koji služi svrsi u koju čvrsto vjerujemo, važno je biti usredotočen na mogućnost uspjeha i razmotriti posljedice nepoduzimanja. Ne bi nas smjeli omesti otpor i neslaganje, već bi nas dodatno trebali motivirati.
So wherever you are in the world, the next time you find that there's some natural curiosity you have that is being piqued, and it's about something you care about, and you have some crazy or bold ideas, and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise, ask yourself this: Why not? Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem as best as you can, in your own way? You may be pleasantly surprised.
Gdje god da se nalazite u svijetu, sljedeći put kada prepoznate da je nešto u vama izazvalo vašu prirodnu znatiželju, a radi se o nečemu do čega vam je stalo, i imate neke lude ili smjele ideje, i, po mogućnosti, radi se o području izvan vaše ekspertize, zapitajte se sljedeće: Zašto ne? Zašto jednostavno ne krenuti u rješavanje problema najbolje što znate, na svoj vlastiti način? Mogli biste se ugodno iznenaditi.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)