I'm going to talk to you about optimism -- or more precisely, the optimism bias. It's a cognitive illusion that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years, and 80 percent of us have it.
Govoriću vam o optimizmu -- ili preciznije o pristrasnosti optimizma. To je kognitivna iluzija koju proučavamo u mojoj laboratoriji poslednjih nekoliko godina i ima je 80 posto nas.
It's our tendency to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events. So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer, being in a car accident. We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects. In short, we're more optimistic than realistic, but we are oblivious to the fact.
To je naša sklonost da precenjujemo verovatnoću da nam se dese dobri događaji, a potcenjujemo šanse da nam se dese loši. Potcenjujemo verovatnoću da ćemo oboleti od raka, doživeti saobraćajnu nesreću. Precenjujemo svoju dugovečnost, svoje izglede u karijeri. Ukratko, mi smo više optimistični nego realistični, ali toga nismo svesni.
Take marriage for example. In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent. That means that out of five married couples, two will end up splitting their assets. But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce, they estimate it at zero percent. And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better, hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce. So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce, but they are more likely to remarry. In the words of Samuel Johnson, "Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."
Uzmite na primer brak. U zapadnom svetu stope razvoda su oko 40 posto. To znači da će se od pet venčanih parova dva završiti podelom imovine. Ali kad upitate upravo venčane o verovatnoći da će da se razvedu, oni procenjuju da je to nula posto. Čak i advokati za razvod, koji bi zaista trebalo da znaju bolje, u velikoj meri potcenjuju verovatnoću da se razvedu. Ispada da optimisti nemaju manje šanse da se razvedu, ali imaju veće šanse da se ponovo venčaju. Prema rečima Semjuela Džonsona, "Ponovno venčanje je trijumf nade nad iskustvom."
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids. And we all think our kids will be especially talented. This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy. And I just want to make it absolutely clear that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias, because he is in fact uniquely talented.
Ako smo venčani, verovatnije je da ćemo imati decu. Svi mislimo da će naša deca biti posebno talentovana. Ovo je moj dvogodišnji nećak, Gaj. Da vam bude potpuno jasno, on je zaista loš primer ove pristrasnosti optimizma, jer je u stvari jedinstveno talentovan.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And I'm not alone. Out of four British people, three said that they were optimistic about the future of their own families. That's 75 percent. But only 30 percent said that they thought families in general are doing better than a few generations ago.
Ne mislim samo ja tako. Od četiri Britanca, tri su rekla da su optimistični po pitanju budućnosti svojih porodica. To je 75 posto. Ali je samo 30 posto reklo da misle da je porodicama bolje sada nego pre nekoliko generacija.
And this is a really important point, because we're optimistic about ourselves, we're optimistic about our kids, we're optimistic about our families, but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us, and we're somewhat pessimistic about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country. But private optimism about our own personal future remains persistent. And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay, but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.
Ovo je zaista važno, jer smo optimistični kad se radi o nama, našoj deci, našim porodicama ali nismo tako mnogo optimistični kad se radi o osobi koja sedi do nas i nekako smo pesimistični kad se radi o sudbini naših sugrađana i naše zemlje. Ali optimizam o našoj ličnoj budućnosti ostaje trajan. To ne znači da mislimo da će stvari magično ispasti OK, već da imamo jedinstvenu sposobnost da ispadnu OK.
Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments. So to show you what I mean, I'm going to do an experiment here with you. So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics, and I want you to think for each of these abilities where you stand relative to the rest of the population.
Ja sam naučnica i eksperimentišem. Da bih vam pokazala na šta mislim, sprovešću eksperiment ovde sa vama. Daću vam listu sposobnosti i osobina, hoću da razmislite za svaku od ovih sposobnosti gde se nalazite u odnosu na ostatak populacije.
The first one is getting along well with others. Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent? Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500. Who believes they're at the top 25 percent? That's most of us here. Okay, now do the same for your driving ability. How interesting are you? How attractive are you? How honest are you? And finally, how modest are you?
Prva je, kako se slažete sa drugima. Ko ovde veruje da je u donjih 25 posto? OK, to je oko 10 ljudi od 1 500. Ko veruje da je u gornjih 25 posto? To je većina ovde. OK, sad uradimo isto za vašu vozačku sposobnost. Koliko ste zanimljivi? Koliko ste privlačni? Koliko ste iskreni? I konačno, koliko ste skromni?
So most of us put ourselves above average on most of these abilities. Now this is statistically impossible. We can't all be better than everyone else. (Laughter) But if we believe we're better than the other guy, well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married, because we're more social, more interesting.
Ispada da mnogi od nas misle da su iznad proseka u vezi sa većinom ovih sposobnosti. Ovo je statistički nemoguće. Ne možemo svi biti bolji od svih ostalih. (smeh) Ali ako verujemo da smo bolji nego onaj drugi, onda znači da je verovatnije da ćemo da dobijemo to unapređenje, da ostanemo u braku, jer smo društveniji, zanimljiviji.
And it's a global phenomenon. The optimism bias has been observed in many different countries -- in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures, in females and males, in kids, in the elderly. It's quite widespread.
I to je globalni fenomen. Pristrasnost optimizma su posmatrali u mnogim državama -- u zapadnim i ostalim kulturama, među ženama i muškarcima, među decom, starima. Prilično je rasprostranjena.
But the question is, is it good for us? So some people say no. Some people say the secret to happiness is low expectations. I think the logic goes something like this: If we don't expect greatness, if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful, well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen. And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen, and we're pleasantly surprised when they do, we will be happy.
Ali pitanje je, da li je to dobro za nas? Neki ljudi kažu da nije. Neki kažu da je tajna sreće u malim očekivanjima. Mislim da logika ide nekako ovako: ako ne očekujemo veliki uspeh, da ćemo naći ljubav, biti zdravi i uspešni, tada nećemo biti razočarani kad se ove stvari ne dese. Ako nismo razočarani kada se ne dese dobre stvari, prijatno smo iznenađeni kad se dese, bićemo srećni.
So it's a very good theory, but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons. Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail, people with high expectations always feel better. Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month depends on how we interpret that event.
To je veoma dobra teorija, ali ispada da je pogrešna zbog tri razloga. Prvi je: bez obzira šta da se desi, uspeh ili poraz, ljudi sa velikim očekivanjima se uvek osećaju bolje. Kako se osećamo kad nas šutnu ili kad osvojimo nagradu meseca, zavisi od toga kako interpretiramo taj događaj.
The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown studied students with high and low expectations. And they found that when people with high expectations succeed, they attribute that success to their own traits. "I'm a genius, therefore I got an A, therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future." When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb, but because the exam just happened to be unfair. Next time they will do better. People with low expectations do the opposite. So when they failed it was because they were dumb, and when they succeeded it was because the exam just happened to be really easy. Next time reality would catch up with them. So they felt worse.
Psiholozi Margaret Maršal i Džon Braun su proučavali studente sa velikim i malim očekivanjima. Otkrili su da kad ljudi sa velikim očekivanjima uspeju, oni taj uspeh pripisuju svojim osobinama. "Ja sam genijalac, zato sam dobio desetku, zbog toga ću je ponovo dobiti." Kad nisu uspeli, to se nije desilo zato što su glupi, već zato što je ispit bio nefer. Sledeći put će uraditi bolje. Ljudi sa malim očekivanjima upravo rade suprotno. Kad ne uspeju, to je zato što su bili glupi, a kad uspeju, to je zato što je ispit bio zaista lak. Svet realnosti bi ih sustigao sledeći put. Zbog toga su se lošije osećali.
Number two: Regardless of the outcome, the pure act of anticipation makes us happy. The behavioral economist George Lowenstein asked students in his university to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity. Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay to get a kiss from a celebrity if the kiss was delivered immediately, in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days, in one year, in 10 years? He found that the students were willing to pay the most not to get a kiss immediately, but to get a kiss in three days. They were willing to pay extra in order to wait. Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years; no one wants an aging celebrity. But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.
Drugo: bez obzira na ishod, samo iščekivanje nas čini srećnim. Bihevioralni ekonomista Džordž Lovenstin je pitao studente svog univerziteta da zamisle da ih neka slavna ličnost strasno poljubi. Tad je pitao: "Koliko ste spremni da platite da bi vas slavna osoba poljubila ako će vas poljubiti odmah, za tri sata, za 24 sata, za tri dana, za godinu dana, za 10 godina?" Otkrio je da su studenti spremni da plate najviše ne da dobiju poljubac odmah, već da ga dobiju za tri dana. Spremni su da plate više da bi sačekali. Nisu bili spremni da čekaju godinu dana ili 10 godina; niko ne voli ostarelu zvezdu. Ali tri dana je izgledalo optimalno.
So why is that? Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with. But if you get the kiss in three days, well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait. The students wanted that time to imagine where is it going to happen, how is it going to happen. Anticipation made them happy.
Zašto je to tako? Ako poljubac dobiješ sada, on je odmah gotov. Ali ako dobiješ poljubac za tri dana, onda je to tri dana nestrpljivog iščekivanja, uzbuđenje zbog čekanja. Studenti su hteli to vreme da bi zamislili gde će to dogoditi, kako će se dogoditi. Iščekivanje ih je učinilo srećnim.
This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday. It's a really curious fact, because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure, so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday, but they don't. It's not because they really, really like being in the office and they can't stand strolling in the park or having a lazy brunch. We know that, because when you ask people about their ultimate favorite day of the week, surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first, then Friday, then Sunday. People prefer Friday because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead, all the plans that you have. On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to is the work week.
Zbog ovog ljudi više vole petak nego nedelju. To je zaista neobično, jer petak je radni dan, a nedelja je dan za zadovoljstvo, tako da biste pretpostavili da ljudi više vole nedelju, ali nije tako. Ne zato što ljudi stvarno vole da budu u kancelariji i ne vole šetnju u parku ili da doručkuju natenane. To znamo, jer kad pitate ljude koji im je omiljeni dan u nedelji, subota je prva, pa petak, pa nedelja. Ljudi više vole petak jer petak donosi sa sobom i iščekivanje dolazećeg vikenda, svih planova koje imate. Nedeljom, jedina stvar kojoj se možete radovati je radna nedelja.
So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future, more strolls in the park. And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing. In fact, without the optimism bias, we would all be slightly depressed. People with mild depression, they don't have a bias when they look into the future. They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals. But individuals with severe depression, they have a pessimistic bias. So they tend to expect the future to be worse than it ends up being.
Optimisti su ljudi koji očekuju više poljubaca u svojoj budućnosti, više šetnji u parku. I to iščekivanje je dobro za njih. U stvari bez pristrasnosti optimizma, svi bismo bili pomalo depresivni. Ljudi sa umerenom depresijom, nemaju predrasude kad pogledaju u budućnost. U stvari su realističniji nego zdravi ljudi. Ali osobe sa ozbiljnom depresijom, imaju pristrasnost pesimizma. Oni očekuju da će budućnost biti gora nego što će zaista biti.
So optimism changes subjective reality. The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it. But it also changes objective reality. It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And that is the third reason why lowering your expectations will not make you happy. Controlled experiments have shown that optimism is not only related to success, it leads to success. Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics. And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health. If we expect the future to be bright, stress and anxiety are reduced.
Optimizam menja subjektivnu stvarnost. Ono što očekujemo da će biti, menja naš pogled na svet. Ali isto tako menja objektivnu stvarnost. To je kao ispunjavanje proročanstva. Tu je i treći razlog zašto vas smanjivanje očekivanja neće učiniti srećnim. Kontrolisani eksperimenti su pokazali da optimizam nije samo povezan sa uspehom, on vodi ka uspehu. Optimizam vodi ka uspehu u školi, sportovima i politici. Možda je zdravlje najviše iznenađujuća korist od optimizma. Ako očekujemo da budućnost bude svetla, stres i anksioznost su smanjeni.
So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits. But the question that was really confusing to me was, how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality? As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing, because according to all the theories out there, when your expectations are not met, you should alter them. But this is not what we find. We asked people to come into our lab in order to try and figure out what was going on.
Sve u svemu, optimizam ima mnogo prednosti. Pitanje koje me je zbunjivalo je kako zadržati optimizam u stvarnosti? Kao neuronaučnici, ovo je bilo posebno zbunjujuće, jer prema svim teorijama koje postoje, kad se ne ostvare tvoja očekivanja, treba da ih promeniš. Ali ovo nije ono što nalazimo. Doveli smo ljude u našu laboratoriju da bismo pokušali da procenimo šta se dešava.
We asked them to estimate their likelihood of experiencing different terrible events in their lives. So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer? And then we told them the average likelihood of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes. So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent. And then we asked them again, "How likely are you to suffer from cancer?"
Pitali smo ih da procene verovatnoću da im se dese razni grozni događaji. Na primer, koja je verovatnoća da ćeš oboleti od raka? Tad bismo im saopštili prosečnu verovatnoću da neko kao oni to doživi. Tako je za rak verovatnoća oko 30 posto. I zatim smo ih ponovo pitali: "Kolika je šansa da vi dobijete rak?"
What we wanted to know was whether people will take the information that we gave them to change their beliefs. And indeed they did -- but mostly when the information we gave them was better than what they expected. So for example, if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 50 percent," and we said, "Hey, good news. The average likelihood is only 30 percent," the next time around they would say, "Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent." So they learned quickly and efficiently. But if someone started off saying, "My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent," and we said, "Hey, bad news. The average likelihood is about 30 percent," the next time around they would say, "Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent."
Ono što smo hteli da znamo je da li će ljudi primiti informaciju koju smo im dali da bi promenili svoje uverenje. Zaista i jesu -- ali uglavnom kad je informacija koju smo im dali bila bolja od onog što su oni očekivali. Na primer, ako je neko rekao: "Moja šansa da obolim od raka je oko 50 posto", mi bismo rekli: "Hej, dobre vesti. Prosečna verovatnoća je samo 30 posto", sledeći put oni bi rekli: "Pa možda je moja verovatnoća oko 35 posto." Dakle, učili su brzo i efikasno. Ali ako bi neko počeo sa: "Moja šansa da obolim od raka je oko 10 posto", a mi na to: "Hej, loše vesti. Prosečna šansa je oko 30 posto", sledeći put oni bi rekli: "Da. I dalje mislim da je oko 11 posto."
(Laughter)
(smeh)
So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did -- but much, much less than when we gave them positive information about the future. And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them; everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer is about 30 percent and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent. But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them.
Nije da oni nisu naučili uopšte -- naprotiv -- ali mnogo manje nego kad smo im dali pozitivnu informaciju o budućnosti. Nije da nisu upamtili brojeve koje smo im dali; svako zapamti da je prosečna šansa za rak oko 30 posto i prosečna verovatnoća za razvod oko 40 posto. Ali oni ne misle da se ovi brojevi odnose na njih.
What this means is that warning signs such as these may only have limited impact. Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.
Ovo znači da ovakvi znaci upozorenja mogu imati samo ograničen uticaj. Pušenje ubija, ali uglavnom nekog drugog.
What I wanted to know was what was going on inside the human brain that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally. But at the same time, when we hear that the housing market is hopeful, we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price." To try and figure that out, I asked the participants in the experiment to lie in a brain imaging scanner. It looks like this. And using a method called functional MRI, we were able to identify regions in the brain that were responding to positive information.
Ono šta sam htela da saznam je šta se dešava unutar ljudskog mozga, što nas je sprečilo da shvatimo ova upozorenja lično. Ali u isto vreme, kad čujemo da je prodaja kuća krenula, mislimo: "Moja kuća će definitivno dostići duplu cenu." Pokušavajući da to shvatim, pitala sam učesnike eksperimenta da im uradimo skener mozga. To izgleda ovako. Koristeći MRI metod, bili smo u stanju da identifikujemo regione u mozgu koji su odgovarali na pozitivne informacije.
One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus. So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent," and we said, "Hey, good news. Average likelihood is 30 percent," the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely. And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist or slightly pessimistic, everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus was functioning perfectly well, whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen.
Jedan od ovih regiona je nazvan donja leva čeona vijuga. Ako je neko rekao: "Moja šansa da obolim od raka je 50 posto", a mi: "Hej, dobre vesti. Prosečna verovatnoća je 30 posto", donja leva čeona vijuga bi odgovorila snažno. Nije imalo veze s tim da li ste ekstremni optimista, umereni optimista ili pomalo pesimista, svačija donja leva čeona vijuga je funkcionisala savršeno dobro, bez obzira da li ste Barak Obama ili Vudi Alen.
On the other side of the brain, the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news. And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job. The more optimistic you were, the less likely this region was to respond to unexpected negative information. And if your brain is failing at integrating bad news about the future, you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.
Na drugoj strani mozga, donja desna čeona vijuga je reagovala na loše vesti. I tu ima sledeća stvar - ona nije radila dobar posao. Što ste optimističniji, manja je verovatnoća da ovaj region odgovori na neočekivane negativne informacije. Ako vaš mozak zakazuje u prihvatanju loših vesti o budućnosti, konstantno ćete nositi roze obojene naočare.
So we wanted to know, could we change this? Could we alter people's optimism bias by interfering with the brain activity in these regions? And there's a way for us to do that.
Tako da smo hteli da saznamo, da li možemo ovo da promenimo. Možemo li promeniti ljudsku pristrasnost optimizma ometanjem moždanih aktivnosti u ovim regijama? Postoji način na koji to radimo.
This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai. And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse through the skull of the participant in our study into their inferior frontal gyrus. And by doing that, he's interfering with the activity of this brain region for about half an hour. After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you.
Ovo je moj saradnik Rijota Kanai. Sa malim magnetnim impulsima on prolazi kroz lobanju učesnika naše studije u njihove donje čeone vijuge. I radeći ovo, utiče na aktivnost ove regije mozga oko pola sata. Posle toga sve ide nazad u normalu, uveravam vas.
(Laughter)
(smeh)
So let's see what happens. First of all, I'm going to show you the average amount of bias that we see. So if I was to test all of you now, this is the amount that you would learn more from good news relative to bad news. Now we interfere with the region that we found to integrate negative information in this task, and the optimism bias grew even larger. We made people more biased in the way that they process information. Then we interfered with the brain region that we found to integrate good news in this task, and the optimism bias disappeared. We were quite amazed by these results because we were able to eliminate a deep-rooted bias in humans.
Da vidmo šta se dešava. Prvo, pokazaću vam prosečnu veličinu pristrasnosti koju vidimo. Ako treba sve sad da vas testiram ovoliko biste saznali više od dobrih vesti u odnosu na loše vesti. Sad utičemo na regiju za koju smo saznali da je zadužena za negativne informacije u ovom zadatku, i optimizam raste još više. Učinili smo ljude pristrasnijima prema tome kako obrađuju informaciju. Zatim smo uticali na oblast mozga za koju smo pronašli da je zadužena za dobre vesti u zadatku, i pristrasnost optimizma je nestala. Bili smo baš zadivljeni ovim rezultatima jer smo mogli da eliminišemo duboko usađenu pristrasnost ljudi.
And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves, would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits? If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away? Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias, which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life. But there are, of course, pitfalls, and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them.
I na ovoj tački smo stali i upitali smo se, da li bismo želeli da razbijemo optimističku iluziju? Kad bismo mogli, da li bismo želeli da uništimo ljudsku pristrasnost optimizma? Već smo vam rekli o svim koristima pristrasnosti optimizma, koje verovatno čine da želite je zadržite zauvek. Ali tu postoje zamke i bilo bi zaista glupo da ih ignorišemo.
Take for example this email I recieved from a firefighter here in California. He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,' even when all of the available information was there to make safe decisions." This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias to try to explain to the firefighters why they think the way they do, to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans.
Uzmite na primer ovaj mail koji sam primila od vatrogasca ovde u Kaliforniji. On kaže: "Istrage smrtnih slučajeva vatrogasaca često navode 'Nismo mislili da će vatra to da uradi', i čak kad su tu sve informacije da bi se donele sigurne odluke." Ovaj kapetan će da uzme svoje nalaze o pristrasnosti optimizma da bi pokušao da objasni vatrogascima zašto oni tako razmišljaju, da bi ih uverio o pristrasnosti optimizma.
So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior, to financial collapse, to faulty planning. The British government, for example, has acknowledged that the optimism bias can make individuals more likely to underestimate the costs and durations of projects. So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget for the optimism bias.
Nerealni optimizam može da vodi do rizičnog ponašanja, do finansijskog kolapsa, do pogrešnog planiranja. Britanska vlada je na primer, objavila da pristrasnost optimizma može da napravi da pojedinci više potcenjuju troškove i trajanje projekata. Tako da su oni prilagodili Olimpijski budžet za 2012. pristrasnosti optimizma.
My friend who's getting married in a few weeks has done the same for his wedding budget. And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce, he said he was quite sure it was zero percent.
Moj prijatelj koji se ženi za par sedmica je uradio isto to za svoj svadbeni budžet. Kad sam ga pitala koliko ima šanse da se razvede, rekao je da je potpuno siguran da je to nula posto.
So what we would really like to do, is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, but at the same time remain hopeful, benefiting from the many fruits of optimism. And I believe there's a way for us to do that. The key here really is knowledge. We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases. These have to be identified by scientific investigation. But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias does not shatter the illusion. It's like visual illusions, in which understanding them does not make them go away. And this is good because it means we should be able to strike a balance, to come up with plans and rules to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism, but at the same time remain hopeful.
Ono što bismo u stvari želeli da uradimo je da se zaštitimo od opasnosti optimizma, ali u isto vreme da se nadamo, koristeći dobrobiti optimizma. Verujem da postoji način da to uradimo. Stvarni ključ je znanje. Mi nismo rođeni sa unutrašnjim razumevanjem svojih pristrasnosti. One moraju biti identifikovane naučnim istraživanjem. Dobre vesti su da biti svestan o pristrasnosti optimizma ne razbija iluziju. Kao vizualne iluzije, u kojima njihovo razumevanje ne čini da one nestanu. I to je dobro, jer to znači da bi trebalo da možemo da odredimo pravi balans, da postavimo planove i pravila kako bismo se zaštitili od nerealnog optimizma, ali u isto vreme i da se nadamo.
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely. Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there who just does not believe they can fly, you certainly never will. Because to make any kind of progress, we need to be able to imagine a different reality, and then we need to believe that that reality is possible. But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best, you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground. But if you're an optimistic penguin who believes they can fly, but then adjusts a parachute to your back just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned, you will soar like an eagle, even if you're just a penguin.
Mislim da ovaj crtež to lepo opisuje. Ako ste jedan od ovih pesimističnih pingvina ovde gore koji jednostavno ne veruje da može da leti, svakako nikad i nećete. Da bi se napravio bilo kakav napredak, treba da možemo da zamislimo drugačiju realnost i onda treba da verujemo da je ta realnost moguća. Ali ako ste ekstremno optimističan pingvin, koji samo slepo skače nadajući se najboljem, možete se naći u haosu kad udarite u zemlju. Ali ako ste optimističan pingvin koji veruje da može da leti, pa onda podesite padobran na svojim leđima samo za slučaj da se stvari ne dese tačno onako kako ste planirali, poletećete kao orao, čak iako ste samo pingvin.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(aplauz)