Many people face the news each morning with trepidation and dread. Every day, we read of shootings, inequality, pollution, dictatorship, war and the spread of nuclear weapons. These are some of the reasons that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever." Until 2017 claimed that record --
許多人每天早上起床看新聞時, 總帶著不安和恐懼的心情。 每天,我們都會獲悉關於槍擊、 不平等、污染、獨裁、 戰爭,以及核武散布的資訊。 2016 年之所以被稱為 「史上最糟的一年」背後是有原因的。 直到 2017 年又更勝一籌 搶下這頭銜──
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and left many people longing for earlier decades, when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.
讓許多人渴望能回到早期的年代, 回到世界似乎比較安全、 比較乾淨,且比較平等的年代。
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition in the 21st century? As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out, "Nothing is more responsible for the good old days than a bad memory."
但在 21 世紀,用這樣的方式 來了解人類的條件,合理嗎? 如富蘭克林·皮爾斯·亞當斯所言: 「對於過去的好日子, 最需要負起責任的, 就是不好的記憶。」
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You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline if you compare bleeding headlines of the present with rose-tinted images of the past. What does the trajectory of the world look like when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?
你總是可以自欺欺人地看到衰落, 如果你把當前流血的頭條 拿來和過去染上玫瑰色的影像相比。 世界的軌道看起來會是什麼模樣, 如果我們用衡常不變的標準 來測量不同時間的幸福指數?
Let's compare the most recent data on the present with the same measures 30 years ago. Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand, had seven percent of their citizens in poverty and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter and four million tons of sulfur dioxide. But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand, poverty rate was 12 percent and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
讓我們拿最近的現代資料 和 30 年前同樣的測量值做比較。 去年,美國人自相殘殺的比率 是每十萬人就有 5.3 人, 貧窮公民的比率是 7%, 排放了 2100 萬噸的微粒狀物質, 以及 400 萬噸的二氧化硫。 但 30 年前,謀殺案的比率 為每十萬人有 8.5 人, 貧窮比率則是 12%, 我們排放了 3500 萬噸 微粒狀物質, 以及 2000 萬噸的二氧化硫。
What about the world as a whole? Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars, 60 autocracies, 10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons. But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars, 85 autocracies, 37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons. True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe, with 238 deaths, but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
整個世界的狀況又如何? 去年世上有 12 場戰事未歇, 60 個獨裁政體, 世界有 10% 的赤貧人口, 和超過一萬件核武。 但 30 年前,有 23 場戰爭, 85 個獨裁政體, 37% 的赤貧人口, 和超過六萬件核武。 的確,就西歐的恐怖主義來說, 去年是很糟的一年, 造成 238 人死亡, 但 1988 年更糟,有 440 人死亡。
What's going on? Was 1988 a particularly bad year? Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles, gets better over time? Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress? To do so is to court a certain amount of derision, because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.
怎麼回事? 1988 年是特別不好的一年嗎? 或者,這些改善其實是個徵兆, 顯示在所有的困難議題上, 世界隨時間變得更好? 是不是甚至能承認,我們符合了 「進步」這個老式觀念呢? 這麼做,其實會受到相當的嘲笑, 因為我發現,知識分子討厭進步。
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And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.
自稱進步分子的知識分子 其實很討厭進步。
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Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you. Most academics and pundits would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it. It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class. If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told, that means that you have a blind faith and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition and the false promise of the myth of the onward march of inexorable progress. You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism, with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology, Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce. You are a practitioner of Whig history, a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss, alluding to the Voltaire character who declared, "All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."
請注意,這並不是說 他們討厭進步的果實。 大部分的學者和權威者在手術時 偏好用麻醉的還是多於不用麻醉的。 是「進步」這個想法 讓這個喋喋不休的階層感到痛苦。 有人告訴我,如果相信 人類可以改善命運, 那就表示你的信念盲目, 你對過時的迷信有宗教般的信仰, 而且你對未來的進展神話 懷抱著虛假的希望。 你盲從地喝采 美國通俗的「做得到主義」、 會議室的意識形態、 矽谷和商會。 (註:對資本主義信仰者的侮辱說法) 你是輝格黨歷史的實踐者、 (註:英國歷史上的一個政黨) 天真的樂觀者、樂天派, 當然,也是班格羅斯博士, 指的是伏爾泰筆下的角色,他宣稱: 「在最好的世界中,一切的發生 都是為了最好的結果。」
Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist. A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds than the one we have today. But all of this is irrelevant, because the question of whether progress has taken place is not a matter of faith or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full. It's a testable hypothesis. For all their differences, people largely agree on what goes into human well-being: life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure, happiness. All of these things can be measured. If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.
好巧不巧,班格羅斯博士 是位悲觀主義者。 真正的樂觀主義者相信 有比現今世界好得多的世界存在。 但這些都不相干, 因為,是否有進步 並不是信念的問題, 也不是有樂觀性情 或是看到半滿杯子的問題。 它是個可試驗的假設。 雖然人的差異很大, 大多數人都同意人類的幸福包括 生命、健康、食物、繁榮、和平、 自由、安全、知識、休閒、快樂。 上述這些都是可測量的。 如果它們都隨著時間改善了, 我認為那就是進步。
Let's go to the data, beginning with the most precious thing of all, life. For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30. Today, worldwide, it is more than 70, and in the developed parts of the world, more than 80. 250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world, a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday, before the risk was brought down a hundredfold. Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children in the poorest countries of the world. Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. It could bring devastation to any part of the world. Today, famine has been banished to the most remote and war-ravaged regions. 200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population subsisted in extreme poverty. Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do. For most of human history, the powerful states and empires were pretty much always at war with each other, and peace was a mere interlude between wars. Today, they are never at war with each other. The last great power war pitted the United States against China 65 years ago. More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly. The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year in the early '50s to 1.2 today. Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism in Eastern Europe and the United States. Yet the world has never been more democratic than it has been in the past decade, with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies. Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta are replaced by the rule of law. It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms, so that today a Western European has 1/35th the chance of being murdered compared to his medieval ancestors. It happened again in colonial New England, in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town, and in Mexico.
讓我們看資料, 從當中最珍貴的一項開始:生命。 人類史上大部分時期 出生時預期的壽命是 30 歲。 今天全世界超過 70 歲, 在世界上已開發的區域, 還會超過 80 歲。 250 年前,在世界上最有錢的國家中, 三分之一的孩子 沒辦法活到 5 歲生日, 後來這個風險數字下降了百倍之多。 現今世界最貧窮的國家 有這種命運的孩子不到 6%。 饑荒是啟示錄中的四騎士之一。 它能蹂躪世界上的任何一個區域。 現今,饑荒已經被流放到 最偏遠、被戰爭破壞的地區。 200 年前,世界人口有 90% 過著極度貧窮的生活。 現今,這樣的人剩下不到 10%。 在人類歷史上大部分時期, 強大的國家和帝王 總是在彼此交戰, 和平僅是戰爭間的插曲。 現今,他們都不再打仗了。 最後一次大型的權力戰爭 是 65 年前美國與中國的戰爭。 更近期,各種戰爭都變少了, 也不那麼致命。 年戰爭率已經從 50 年代初期的十萬分之 22 下降到今天的十萬分之 1.2。 民主碰到了很明顯的挫敗, 在委內瑞拉、俄國和土耳其, 且受到東歐及美國 專制民粹主義興起的威脅。 然而以前的世界未曾像 過去十年間這麼民主過, 三分之二的世人活在民主中。 只要無政府狀態和仇殺法 被法治所取代, 謀殺率就會驟降。 在封建的歐洲被 中央集權王國控制時發生過, 所以,現今在西歐 被謀殺的機率,只有中世紀祖先 被謀殺之機率的三十五分之一。 同樣的情形在新英格蘭殖民時期、 警長進駐小鎮的美國大西部, 和墨西哥,也都發生過。
Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way. Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely to be killed in a car crash, 88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk, 99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash, 95 percent less likely to be killed on the job, 89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God, such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano, landslide, earthquake or meteor strike, presumably not because God has become less angry with us but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure. And what about the quintessential act of God, the projectile hurled by Zeus himself? Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
的確,幾乎在每個層面上 我們都比以前更安全。 在過去一百年, 我們因車禍死亡的機率減少了 96%, 在人行道上慘死的機率減少了 88%, 因為墜機而死的機率減少了 99%, 工作時送命的機率減少了 95%, 因天災而死的機率減少了 89%, 天災包括旱災、洪水、 野火、暴風、火山、 土石流、地震,或隕石墜落, 這應該不是因為 上帝對我們不那麼生氣了, 而是因為改善了基礎建設的韌性。 那麼,典型的上帝作為呢? 宙斯自己猛力投射的攻擊呢? 是的,我們被閃電打中而死的 機率也一樣減少了 97%。
Before the 17th century, no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write. Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy by the middle of the 20th century, and the rest of the world is catching up. Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population under the age of 25 can read and write. In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week. Today, they work fewer than 40. Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity in the developed world and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners, refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves, the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework has fallen from 60 hours a week to fewer than 15 hours a week.
在 17 世紀之前, 能讀能寫的歐洲人不到 15%。 歐洲和美國在 20 世紀中期 達成了全體識字的目標, 世界其他國家也陸續追了上來。 現今,世界上 25 歲以下的人口, 超過 90% 都能讀和寫。 在 19 世紀,西方人每週 要工作超過 60 小時, 現今則不到 40 小時。 多虧了在已開發世界中 普及的自來水和電力, 以及被廣泛使用的洗衣機、吸塵器、 電冰箱、洗碗機、爐子,和微波爐, 我們人生中耗費在家事上的時間, 從每週 60 小時, 落至不到每週 15 小時。
Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure make us any happier? The answer is yes. In 86 percent of the world's countries, happiness has increased in recent decades.
在健康、財富、安全、 知識,和休閒上的收穫, 有讓我們更快樂嗎? 答案是,有。 世界上有 86% 的國家 在近數十年間,快樂程度都有增加。
Well, I hope to have convinced you that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism, but is a fact of human history, indeed the greatest fact in human history. And how has this fact been covered in the news?
我希望我已經說服了各位, 進步並不是信念或樂觀主義的問題, 而是人類歷史上的一件事實, 可說是人類歷史上最偉大的事實。 而新聞是怎麼報導這件事實的?
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A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier, wealthier, wiser, safer and happier, the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.
把新聞報導中用到的正面 和負面情緒用字製成表格, 就能看出,在人類變得 更健康、更有錢、更聰明、 更安全,且更快樂的這數十年間, 《紐約時報》變得越來越陰鬱, 世界的廣播也都很穩定地 變得越來越悶悶不樂。
Why don't people appreciate progress? Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology. We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic." The easier it is to recall something from memory, the more probable we judge it to be. The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism, captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion," "CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."
為什麼大家不賞識進步? 部分答案來自我們的認知心理學。 我們用一種叫做「易得性法則」的 心理捷徑來估計風險。 當我們越容易喚起 記憶中的一樣事物時, 我們就越可能判斷它容易發生。 另一部分答案來自新聞業的天性, 在這來自《洋蔥報》的 諷刺頭條中就可以看出來: 「CNN 開晨間會議來決定 今天讀者應該要對什麼感到慌張。」
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News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen. You never see a journalist who says, "I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years," or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists. Also, bad things can happen quickly, but good things aren't built in a day. The papers could have run the headline, "137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday" every day for the last 25 years. That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind, but you never read about it. Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest in what can go wrong, captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads." Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news, you can see why the world has been coming to an end for a very long time indeed.
新聞的重點是已發生的事情, 而非沒發生的事情。 你永遠不會看到一個新聞記者說: 「我正在一個已經和平了 40 年的國家做實況報導。」 也不會去報導沒有 被恐怖分子攻擊的城市。 此外,壞事的發生可能很快速, 但好事不是一天就能建造起來的。 如果報紙用了這頭條: 「昨天 137,000 人脫離赤貧」, 不可能在接下來 25 年 天天都用這頭條。 那相當於 12.5 億人脫離貧窮, 但你從來沒有讀過這種報導。 此外,新聞要利用我們想看 事情能怎麼出錯的病態心理, 「見到血,才能見頭條」 這條節目製作政策很一針見血。 如果把我們的認知偏見 和新聞的天性結合起來, 你就能了解為什麼 長年以來都一直在說 好像世界末日即將來臨一樣了。
Let me address some questions about progress that no doubt have occurred to many of you. First, isn't it good to be pessimistic to safeguard against complacency, to rake the muck, to speak truth to power? Well, not exactly. It's good to be accurate. Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger wherever they occur, but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced, because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism. One of them is fatalism. If all our efforts at improving the world have been in vain, why throw good money after bad? The poor will always be with you. And since the world will end soon -- if climate change doesn't kill us all, then runaway artificial intelligence will -- a natural response is to enjoy life while we can, eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.
無疑地,許多人應該都有一些 關於進步的問題想問, 就讓我來談談。 首先,用悲觀的方式 來避免自滿,來揭發不當行為, 來向當權著說出真相,不好嗎? 嗯,不見得。 精確是好事。 當然,我們應該要在 苦難和危險發生時 意識到它們的存在, 但我們也應該要意識到 如何能減低它們, 因為不分皂白的悲觀主義是危險的。 其中一種危險就是宿命論。 若我們投入改善世界的所有努力 都是白費的, 為何要再砸錢填補無底洞? 貧窮永遠會與你同在。 既然世界末日很快就會來臨── 若我們沒有都死於氣候變遷, 我們還是會死於失控的人工智能── 自然的反應就是, 趁還可以時盡量享受人生, 去吃喝玩樂,因為我們活不過明天。
The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism. If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform, a natural response is to seek to smash the machine, drain the swamp, burn the empire to the ground, on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes is bound to be better than what we have now.
輕率的悲觀主義會帶來的 另一種危險就是激進主義。 如果我們的制度全都沒有用, 且也沒有改革的希望, 自然的反應就是要 想辦法砸爛這台機器, 把不好的給根除, 把整個帝國燒毀, 希望不論從灰燼中重生的是什麼, 都能夠比我們的現況更好。
Well, if there is such a thing as progress, what causes it? Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher. It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice. It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea, an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment, namely that if we apply reason and science that enhance human well-being, we can gradually succeed. Is progress inevitable? Of course not. Progress does not mean that everything becomes better for everyone everywhere all the time. That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle but problem-solving. Problems are inevitable and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn. The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan, including the risks of climate change and nuclear war, but we must see them as problems to be solved, not apocalypses in waiting, and aggressively pursue solutions like Deep Decarbonization for climate change and Global Zero for nuclear war.
嗯,如果有「進步」這回事, 是什麼造成進步的? 進步不是能把我們抬得更高的 神秘力量或辯證法; 進步不是歷史的神秘弧形, 朝向正義的方向彎曲; 而是由想法支配人類努力的結果, 這想法和 18 世紀啟蒙運動有關, 也就是,如果我們運用 增進人類福祉的理性和科學, 我們可以逐漸成功。 進步是必然的嗎?當然不是。 進步並不表示隨時隨地 任何人的一切都會變更好。 那叫做奇蹟,而進步並不是奇蹟, 而是解決問題。 問題是無可避免的, 而解決方案會創造出新的問題來, 接著又要解決這些問題。 現今世界面對巨大的問題, 包括氣候變遷的風險, 以及核戰, 但我們必須視它們為 有待解決的問題, 而不是等著即將到來的世界末日, 並要很進取地去尋找解決方案, 就像針對氣候變遷要深度減碳; 針對核戰要全球零核。
Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature? This is an acute question for me, because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature, with all its shortcomings and perversities. In my book "The Blank Slate," I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian and that we are not stardust, we are not golden and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.
最後,啟蒙運動是否有違人類天性? 對我來說,這是個尖銳的問題, 因為我是人性存在的主要倡導者, 即使這天性有各種缺陷和任性。 在我的書《空白的石板》中, 我主張人類的前景 比烏托邦要更悲劇些, 且我們並非星塵,我們不是黃金的, 所以我們不可能回到花園。 (註:一首歌的歌詞)
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
But my worldview has lightened up in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published. My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress, starting with violence but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being, has fortified my belief that in understanding our tribulations and woes, human nature is the problem, but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions, is also the solution.
但在《空白的石板》出版後的 15 年間,我的世界觀亮了起來。 我最先熟悉的 人類進步相關統計數字, 是暴力相關的數字, 但現在包含了我們 幸福的每一個面向, 這加強了我的信念, 相信在了解我們的動亂與不幸上, 問題其實是人類天性, 但透過啟蒙標準與制度做為管道, 人類天性也同樣是解決方案。
Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany with humanity at large. Some intellectuals have responded with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now," saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress, and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.
顯然,很難把我自己 透過資料而導出的醒悟, 複製到人類總體上。 所以,知識分子對我的書 《現在的啟蒙》反應是非常憤怒, 首先,說他怎麼有膽子 聲稱知識分子討厭進步, 再來,他怎麼有膽子聲稱有進步。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold. Saving the lives of billions, eradicating disease, feeding the hungry, teaching kids to read? Boring.
對於其他人,進步的想法 只讓他們心寒。 拯救數十億人的性命, 消滅疾病,提供食物給飢餓的人, 教孩子識字? 無聊。
At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude, gratitude for changing their view of the world from a numb and helpless fatalism to something more constructive, even heroic.
同時,我從讀者得到的回應中, 最常見的是感激, 感激我改變了他們的世界觀, 從一種麻木和無助的宿命論, 變得更有建設性, 甚至更英勇。
I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment can be cast a stirring narrative, and I hope that people with greater artistic flare and rhetorical power than I can tell it better and spread it further. It goes something like this.
我相信,啟蒙的理想 能被用很激動人心的方式描述, 我希望比我更有藝術氣息 和修辭能力的人, 能說得更好,傳播得更遠更廣。 類似這樣。
We are born into a pitiless universe, facing steep odds against life-enabling order and in constant jeopardy of falling apart. We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive. We are made from crooked timber, vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness and at times astounding stupidity.
我們出生在無情的世界, 面臨著對生命有利的秩序的嚴重衝擊, 並且一直處於崩潰的危險之中。 形塑我們的過程, 是個無情競爭的過程。 我們是用歪曲的木材製成的, 容易產生幻想,以自我為中心, 有時甚至還驚人的愚蠢。
Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources that open a space for a kind of redemption. We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively, to have thoughts about our thoughts. We have an instinct for language, allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience. We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy, for pity, imagination, compassion, commiseration. These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power. The scope of language has been augmented by the written, printed and electronic word. Our circle of sympathy has been expanded by history, journalism and the narrative arts. And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied by the norms and institutions of reason, intellectual curiosity, open debate, skepticism of authority and dogma and the burden of proof to verify ideas by confronting them against reality.
然而,人類天性也因資源而得福, 這些資源打開了某種救贖用的空間。 我們被賦予不斷遞回式地 將想法結合的力量, 對我們的想法有所想法的力量。 我們對於語言具有直覺, 讓我們能分享我們 心靈手巧和經驗的果實。 我們還有更深一層的能力, 會同情、憐惜、想像、同理、憐憫。 這些才能已經找到 放大本身力量的方式。 語言的範圍已經被擴增, 靠的是書寫、列印,和電子文字。 我們的同情圈已經被擴展, 靠的是歷史、新聞,和敘事性藝術。 我們微不足道的理性機能已經倍增, 靠的是理性的標準和制度、 需要智力的好奇心、公開辯論、 對於權威及污名的懷疑態度, 和通過面對現實 來驗證觀點的舉證責任。
As the spiral of recursive improvement gathers momentum, we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down, not least the darker parts of our own nature. We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind. We live longer, suffer less, learn more, get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures and rich experiences. Fewer of us are killed, assaulted, enslaved, exploited or oppressed by the others. From a few oases, the territories with peace and prosperity are growing and could someday encompass the globe. Much suffering remains and tremendous peril, but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced, and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived.
隨著遞迴式改善的螺旋勢頭 越來越強勁, 在對抗壓榨我們的力量時, 我們的勝算增加了, 特別是我們自身天性中 較黑暗的部分。 我們看透了宇宙的神秘, 包括生命和心智。 我們活得更久, 受得苦難更少,學習得更多, 變得更聰明,享受更多小小的樂趣, 以及豐富的經驗。 被他人殺害、攻擊、奴役、利用, 或迫害的人數變少了。 和平繁榮的領域在變大, 從只有幾個綠洲, 到有一天會貫穿全球。 許多的苦難和極大的危險仍然存在, 已經有人提出如何減少它們的想法, 還有無數的想法還沒被構想出來。
We will never have a perfect world, and it would be dangerous to seek one. But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing. This heroic story is not just another myth. Myths are fictions, but this one is true, true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have. As we learn more, we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false, as any of them might be and any could become.
我們永遠不會有一個完美的世界, 去尋找這樣的世界是很危險的。 但如果我們繼續運用知識 來增進人類的繁榮, 那麼我們能獲得的改善無限。 這英勇的故事並不是另一個神話。 神話是虛構的,這個故事是真實的, 就我們所知是真實的,而我們的所知 就是我們唯一能擁有的真相。 隨著我們越學越多, 我們能夠顯示出故事中 哪些部分仍然真實,哪些虛假, 任何部分都有可能是真是假, 也可能變真或成空。
And this story belongs not to any tribe but to all of humanity, to any sentient creature with the power of reason and the urge to persist in its being, for it requires only the convictions that life is better than death, health is better than sickness, abundance is better than want, freedom is better than coercion, happiness is better than suffering and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.
這個故事不屬於任何種族, 而是屬於全人類的, 屬於任何具有理性力量、感知能力, 以及有強烈慾望想要活下來的生物, 因為只需要相信 生命比死亡更好, 健康比生病更好, 豐足比缺乏更好, 自由比脅迫更好, 幸福比受苦更好, 知識比無知和迷信更好。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)