Many people face the news each morning with trepidation and dread. Every day, we read of shootings, inequality, pollution, dictatorship, war and the spread of nuclear weapons. These are some of the reasons that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever." Until 2017 claimed that record --
Mnogi ljudi se suočavaju s vestima svakog jutra sa strepnjom i jezom. Svakog dana čitamo o pucnjavama, nejednakosti, zagađenju, diktaturi, ratu i širenju nuklearnog oružja. Ovo su neki od razloga zbog kojih je 2016. nazvana „Najgora. Godina. Ikad." A onda je 2017. oborila rekord -
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and left many people longing for earlier decades, when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.
i ostavila mnoge ljude da žude za ranijim decenijama, kada se svet činio bezbednijim, čistijim i s više jednakosti.
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition in the 21st century? As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out, "Nothing is more responsible for the good old days than a bad memory."
Međutim, da li je ovo razuman način da razumemo ljudsko stanje u XXI veku? Kako je Frenklin Pirs Adams istakao: „Ništa nije zaslužnije za dobre stare dane od lošeg pamćenja."
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You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline if you compare bleeding headlines of the present with rose-tinted images of the past. What does the trajectory of the world look like when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?
Uvek možete da prevarite sebe i da vidite propadanje, ako poredite krvave naslove iz sadašnjosti sa ružičastim prizorima iz prošlosti. Kako izgleda putanja sveta kada merimo dobrobit tokom vremena koristeći nepromenjivo merilo?
Let's compare the most recent data on the present with the same measures 30 years ago. Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand, had seven percent of their citizens in poverty and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter and four million tons of sulfur dioxide. But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand, poverty rate was 12 percent and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
Uporedimo poslednje podatke o sadašnjosti sa istim merenjima od pre 30 godina. Prošle godine, stopa ubijenih Amerikanaca je bila 5.3 na sto hiljada, sedam procenata Amerikanaca je živelo u siromaštvu i oslobodili su 21 milon tona čestica kao i četiri miliona tona sumpor-dioksida. Međutim, pre 30 godina stopa ubistava je bila 8.5 na sto hiljada, stopa siromaštva je bila 12 procenata i oslobodili smo 35 milona tona čestica i 20 miliona tona sumpor-dioksida.
What about the world as a whole? Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars, 60 autocracies, 10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons. But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars, 85 autocracies, 37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons. True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe, with 238 deaths, but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
Šta je sa celokupnim svetom? Prošle godine u svetu se vodilo 12 ratova, bilo je 60 autokratija, 10 procenata svetske populacije je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu i imali smo preko 10.000 nuklearnog oružja. Međutim, pre 30 godina imali smo 23 rata, 85 autokratija, 37 procenata svetske populacije je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu i imali smo preko 60.000 nuklearnog oružja. Istina, prošla godina je bila užasna zbog terorizma u Zapadnoj Evropi, sa 238 mrtvih, ali 1988. je bila gora sa 440 mrtvih.
What's going on? Was 1988 a particularly bad year? Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles, gets better over time? Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress? To do so is to court a certain amount of derision, because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.
Šta se dešava? Da li je 1988. bila naročito loša godina? Ili su ovi napreci znak da svet, uprkos previranjima, vremenom postaje bolji? Da li bismo mogli da prizovemo opštepoznati staromodni pojam napretka? Ako učinite tako prizivate određenu dozu poruge jer sam otkrio da intelektualci mrze napredak.
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And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.
A intelektualci koji sebe nazivaju progresivnim zaista mrze napredak.
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Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you. Most academics and pundits would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it. It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class. If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told, that means that you have a blind faith and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition and the false promise of the myth of the onward march of inexorable progress. You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism, with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology, Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce. You are a practitioner of Whig history, a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss, alluding to the Voltaire character who declared, "All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."
Sad, nije da oni mrze plodove napretka, takoreći. Većina akademika i stručnjaka bi radije imali operaciju sa anestezijom nego bez nje. Radi se o ideji napretka koja uznemirava brbljivu klasu. Ako verujete da ljudi mogu da unaprede svoju sudbinu, rečeno mi je, da to znači da slepo verujete u kvazi-religijsko ubeđenje u zastarelo sujeverje i lažno obećanje mita o maršu unapred neumitnog napretka. Vi ste navijač vulgarnog američkog moguizma sa ša-la-la duhom ideologije odbora: Silicijumske doline i Trgovinske komore. Praktikant ste istorije Vigovaca, naivni optimista, Polijana, i, naravno, Panglos, aludirajući na Volterovog lika koji je izjavio: „Sve je zarad najboljeg u najboljem od svih mogućih svetova."
Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist. A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds than the one we have today. But all of this is irrelevant, because the question of whether progress has taken place is not a matter of faith or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full. It's a testable hypothesis. For all their differences, people largely agree on what goes into human well-being: life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure, happiness. All of these things can be measured. If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.
Pa, profesor Panglos slučajno je pesimista. Istinski optimista veruje da mnogo bolji svetovi mogu da postoje od onog koji danas imamo. Međutim, sve ovo je nevažno jer pitanje da li se napredak desio nije stvar vere ili posedovanja optimističnog temperamenta ili posmatranja čaše kao polupune. To je proverljiva hipoteza. Koliko god se neslagali, ljudi se mahom slažu povodom toga šta je ljudska dobrobit: život, zdravlje, hrana, prosperitet, mir, sloboda, bezbednost, znanje, dokolica, sreća. Sve ovo može da se meri. Ako su se popravili tokom vremena, to prihvatam kao napredak.
Let's go to the data, beginning with the most precious thing of all, life. For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30. Today, worldwide, it is more than 70, and in the developed parts of the world, more than 80. 250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world, a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday, before the risk was brought down a hundredfold. Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children in the poorest countries of the world. Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. It could bring devastation to any part of the world. Today, famine has been banished to the most remote and war-ravaged regions. 200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population subsisted in extreme poverty. Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do. For most of human history, the powerful states and empires were pretty much always at war with each other, and peace was a mere interlude between wars. Today, they are never at war with each other. The last great power war pitted the United States against China 65 years ago. More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly. The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year in the early '50s to 1.2 today. Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism in Eastern Europe and the United States. Yet the world has never been more democratic than it has been in the past decade, with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies. Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta are replaced by the rule of law. It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms, so that today a Western European has 1/35th the chance of being murdered compared to his medieval ancestors. It happened again in colonial New England, in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town, and in Mexico.
Pređimo na podatke, počinjući sa najdragocenijom stvari od svih: životom. Većim delom ljudske istorije životni vek po rođenju je bio oko 30. Danas, širom sveta, prelazi 70 godina, a u razvijenim delovima sveta, prelazi 80. Pre 250 godina, u najbogatijim državama sveta, trećina dece ne bi doživela svoj peti rođendan, pre nego što je rizik umanjen stostruko. Danas, ta sudbina će da snađe manje od šest procenata dece u najsiromašnijim državama sveta. Glad je jedan od četiri jahača apokalipse. Može da donese uništenje u bilo koji deo sveta. Danas, glad je prognana u najudaljenije i ratom razorene regije. Pre 200 godina, 90 procenata svetske populacije je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu. Danas tako živi manje od 10 procenata. Većim delom ljudske istorije, moćne države i carstva su gotovo uvek bile u ratu jedne s drugima, a mir je bio puka pauza između ratova. Danas, uopšte međusobno ne ratuju. Poslednji rat velikih sila je okrenuo Sjedinjene Države protiv Kine pre 65 godina. U skorije vreme, ratovi u svakom obliku su postali ređi i manje smrtonosni. Godišnja stopa rata je pala sa oko 22 na sto hiljada godišnje u ranim '50-im na 1,2 danas. Demokratija je pretrpela očigledno nazadovanje u Venecueli, Rusiji, Turskoj i preti joj uspon autoritarnog populizma u Istočnoj Evropi i Sjedinjenim Državama. Ipak, svet nikad nije bio demokratičniji nego što je bio u protekloj deceniji, sa dve trećine ljudi u svetu koji su živeli u demokratijama. Stope ubistava se strmoglavljuju uvek kad anarhiju i zakon osvete zameni vladavina prava. To se desilo kada je feudalna Evropa pala pod kontrolu centralizovanih kraljevstava, pa danas Zapadnoevropljanin ima šanse 1/35 da bude ubijen u odnosu na svoje srednjovekovne pretke. Desilo se ponovo u kolonijalnoj Novoj Engleskoj, na američkom Dviljem zapadu kada su se šerifi doselili u grad, kao i u Meksiku.
Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way. Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely to be killed in a car crash, 88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk, 99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash, 95 percent less likely to be killed on the job, 89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God, such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano, landslide, earthquake or meteor strike, presumably not because God has become less angry with us but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure. And what about the quintessential act of God, the projectile hurled by Zeus himself? Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
Zaista, postali smo bezbedniji skoro na svim poljima. U proteklom veku umanjili smo za 96% šanse da poginemo u udesu, za 88% su nam manje šanse da nas pokose na trotoaru, za 99% su nam manje šanse da poginemo u padu aviona, za 95% su nam manje šanse da poginemo na radnom mestu, za 89% su nam manje šanse da poginemo od strane više sile, poput suše, poplave, požara, oluje, vulkana, odrona, zemljotresa ili kiše meteora, verovatno ne zato što je bog postao manje ljut na nas, već zbog napretka u izdržljivosti naše infrastrukture. A šta je sa suštinskim božjim činom, projektilom poslanim lično od Zevsa? Da, procenat verovatnoće da nas ubije grom je umanjen za 97%.
Before the 17th century, no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write. Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy by the middle of the 20th century, and the rest of the world is catching up. Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population under the age of 25 can read and write. In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week. Today, they work fewer than 40. Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity in the developed world and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners, refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves, the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework has fallen from 60 hours a week to fewer than 15 hours a week.
Pre XVII veka, ne više od 15 procenata Evropljana je moglo da čita ili piše. Evropa i Sjedinjene Države su postigli univerzalnu pismenost do sredine XX veka, a ostatak sveta ih sustiže. Danas, preko 90 procenata svetske populacije mlađe od 25 godina zna da čita i piše. U XIX veku, zapadnjaci su radili preko 60 sati nedeljno. Danas rade manje od 40. Zahvaljujući univerzalnom prodoru tekuće vode i električne energije u razvijenom svetu i širokoj primeni mašina za veš, usisivača, frižidera, mašina za sudove, rerni i mikrotalasnih pećnica, udeo naših života koje posvećujemo kućnim poslovima je pao sa 60 sati nedeljno na manje od 15 sati nedeljno.
Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure make us any happier? The answer is yes. In 86 percent of the world's countries, happiness has increased in recent decades.
Da li nas svi ovi dobici u zdravlju, bogatstvu, bezbednosti, znanju i dokolici čine srećnijim? Odgovor je da. U 86% država u svetu sreća je uvećana u nedavnim decenijama.
Well, I hope to have convinced you that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism, but is a fact of human history, indeed the greatest fact in human history. And how has this fact been covered in the news?
Pa, nadam se da sam vas ubedio da napredak nije pitanje vere, niti optimizma, već se radi o činjenici ljudske istorije, uisitnu najvećoj činjenici ljudske istorije. A kako se ova činjenica obrađuje u vestima?
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A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier, wealthier, wiser, safer and happier, the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.
Tabelisanje pozitivnih i negativnih emocionalnih reči u pričama iz vesti je pokazalo da je tokom decenija u kojima je čovečanstvo postajalo zdravije, bogatije, mudrije, bezbednije i srećnije, "Njujork tajms" je postajao sve turobniji kao i svetski mediji koji su sve češće postajali mrzovoljniji.
Why don't people appreciate progress? Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology. We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic." The easier it is to recall something from memory, the more probable we judge it to be. The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism, captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion," "CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."
Zašto ljudi ne cene napredak? Odgovor delimično potiče iz naše kognitivne psihologije. Ocenjujemo rizik upotrebom umne prečice koja se naziva "heuristikom dostupnosti". Što je lakše setiti se nečega iz pamćenja, time prosuđujemo njegovu verovatnoću. Drugi deo odgovora potiče iz prirode novinarstva, koja je obuhvaćena ovim satiričnim naslovom iz "Oniona": "Si-En-En imao jutarnji sastanak da bi odlučili zbog čega bi gledaoci trebalo da paniče do kraja dana."
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News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen. You never see a journalist who says, "I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years," or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists. Also, bad things can happen quickly, but good things aren't built in a day. The papers could have run the headline, "137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday" every day for the last 25 years. That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind, but you never read about it. Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest in what can go wrong, captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads." Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news, you can see why the world has been coming to an end for a very long time indeed.
Vesti su o onome što se dešava, ne o onome što se ne dešava. Nikada niste videli novinara koji govori: „Izveštavam uživo iz države koja je u miru već 40 godina", ili o gradu u kome se nije desio teroristički napad. Takođe, loše stvari mogu brzo da se dese, a dobre stvari se ne dešavaju preko noći. Novine su mogle da imaju naslov: „137.000 ljudi je juče izašlo iz ekstremnog siromaštva" svakog dana u proteklih 25 godina. To je jedna i četvrtina milijardi ljudi kojima je siromaštvo prošlost, ali nikada ne čitate o tome. Takođe, vesti prihoduju od naših morbidnih interesovanja o tome šta bi moglo poći po zlu, koje je obuhvaćeno programskom politikom: "Ako ima krvi, biće i publike". Pa, ako kombinujete naše kognitivne predrasude sa prirodom vesti, videćete zašto se svetu bliži kraj uistinu već poduže vremena.
Let me address some questions about progress that no doubt have occurred to many of you. First, isn't it good to be pessimistic to safeguard against complacency, to rake the muck, to speak truth to power? Well, not exactly. It's good to be accurate. Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger wherever they occur, but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced, because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism. One of them is fatalism. If all our efforts at improving the world have been in vain, why throw good money after bad? The poor will always be with you. And since the world will end soon -- if climate change doesn't kill us all, then runaway artificial intelligence will -- a natural response is to enjoy life while we can, eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.
Osvrnuću se na neka pitanja o napretku koja su bez sumnje mnogima od vas pala na pamet. Pre svega, zar nije dobro biti pesimističan kako bi se zaštitili od pomirljivosti, razotkrili prljave igrače, rekli istinu onima na vlasti? Pa, ne baš. Dobro je biti precizan. Naravno, trebalo bi da smo svesni patnje i opasnosti gde god da se dese, no takođe bi trebalo da smo svesni toga kako možemo da ih umanjimo jer opasnost leži u nediskriminatorskom pesimizmu. Jedan od tih je fatalizam. Ako su svi naši napori da unapredimo svet bili uzaludni, zašto bismo bacali novac u bescenje? Siromašni će uvek da budu tu. A kako će svetu uskoro doći kraj - ako nas klimatske promene sve ne potamane, uradiće će to odbegla veštačka inteligencija - prirodan odgovor je da uživamo u životu dok možemo, jedemo, pijemo i radujemo se jer ćemo sutra da umremo.
The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism. If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform, a natural response is to seek to smash the machine, drain the swamp, burn the empire to the ground, on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes is bound to be better than what we have now.
Druga opasnost nepromišljenog pesimizma je radikalizam. Ako naše institucije ne funkcionišu i nema nade za reforme, prirodan odgovor je da se teži uništenju mašine, da se isuši močvara, carstvo spali do temelja, s nadom da šta god da se podigne iz pepela sigurno će da bude bolje od onoga što trenutno imamo.
Well, if there is such a thing as progress, what causes it? Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher. It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice. It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea, an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment, namely that if we apply reason and science that enhance human well-being, we can gradually succeed. Is progress inevitable? Of course not. Progress does not mean that everything becomes better for everyone everywhere all the time. That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle but problem-solving. Problems are inevitable and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn. The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan, including the risks of climate change and nuclear war, but we must see them as problems to be solved, not apocalypses in waiting, and aggressively pursue solutions like Deep Decarbonization for climate change and Global Zero for nuclear war.
Pa, ako postoji nešto takvo kao napredak, šta ga uzrokuje? Napredak nije neka tajnovita sila ili dijalektičko uznošenje više i više. Nije to tajanstveni svod istorije koji se poginje ka pravdi. To je rezultat ljudskih napora koje vodi ideja, ideja koju povezujemo sa prosvetiteljstvom iz XVIII veka, pre svega da, ako primenimo razum i nauku koji naglašavaju ljudsku dobrobit, vremenom ćemo da uspemo. Da li je napredak neizbežan? Naravno da nije. Napredak ne znači da sve postaje bolje za svakoga, svuda, sve vreme. To bi bilo čudo, a napredak nije čudo, već rešavanje problema. Problemi su neizbežni, a rešenja stvaraju nove probleme koje u tom slučaju treba rešiti. Nerešeni problemi sa kojima se suočava današnji svet su džinovski, uključujući i rizik od klimatskih promena i nuklearnog rata, ali moramo da gledamo na njih kao na probleme koje treba rešiti, a ne kao apokalipse u najavi, i moramo agresivno da tragamo za rešenjima poput Dubinske dekarbonizacije za klimatske promene i Globalne nule za nuklearni rat.
Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature? This is an acute question for me, because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature, with all its shortcomings and perversities. In my book "The Blank Slate," I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian and that we are not stardust, we are not golden and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.
Naposletku, da li je prosvetiteljstvo suprotstavljeno ljudskoj prirodi? Ovo je akutno pitanje za mene jer sam istaknuti zastupnik toga da postoji ljudska priroda sa svim njenim manama i izopačenostima. U mojoj knjizi „Prazna ploča", raspravljao sam o tome da su ljudski izgledi pre tragični nego utopijski i da nismo zvezdana prašina, nismo zlatni i da nema šanse da ćemo se vratiti u raj.
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But my worldview has lightened up in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published. My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress, starting with violence but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being, has fortified my belief that in understanding our tribulations and woes, human nature is the problem, but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions, is also the solution.
Međutim, moj pogled na svet se ozario tokom 15 godina otkad je objavljena „Prazna ploča". Moja upućenost u statistiku ljudskog napretka, počevši sa nasiljem, ali koja sada obuhvata sve druge aspekte našeg blagostanja, učvrstila je moje uverenje da razmevajući naša stradanja i jade, ljudska priroda jeste problem, ali ljudska priroda, kanalisana normama prosvetiteljstva i institucija, takođe je rešenje.
Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany with humanity at large. Some intellectuals have responded with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now," saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress, and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.
Priznaću, nije lako duplikovati na veliko moje lično proviđenje vođeno podacima u vezi sa čovečanstvom. Neki intelektualci su reagovali gnevno na moju knjigu „Prosvetiteljstvo sad", govoreći, pre svega, kako se usuđujem da tvrdim da intelektualci mrze napredak, a zatim, kako se usuđujem da tvrdim da uopšte ima napretka.
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With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold. Saving the lives of billions, eradicating disease, feeding the hungry, teaching kids to read? Boring.
Druge, ideja napretka prosto ostavlja ravnodušnim. Spašavanje milijardi života, iskorenjivanje bolesti, hranjenje gladnih, podučavanje dece čitanju? Dosadno.
At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude, gratitude for changing their view of the world from a numb and helpless fatalism to something more constructive, even heroic.
Istovremeno, najuobičajeniji odgovor koji sam dobio od čitalaca je zahvalnost, zahvalnost što sam im promenio pogled na svet od parališućeg i beznadežnog fatalizma u nešto konstruktivnije, čak junačko.
I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment can be cast a stirring narrative, and I hope that people with greater artistic flare and rhetorical power than I can tell it better and spread it further. It goes something like this.
Verujem da ideali prosvetiteljstva mogu da pruže uzbudljiv narativ i nadam se da ljudi većeg umetničkog nadahnuća i retoričke moći od mene mogu to bolje da ispričaju i prenesu dalje. Priča glasi nekako ovako.
We are born into a pitiless universe, facing steep odds against life-enabling order and in constant jeopardy of falling apart. We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive. We are made from crooked timber, vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness and at times astounding stupidity.
Rođeni smo u nemilosrdnom univerzumu, suočeni sa tankim šansama protiv poretka koji omogućuje život i u konstantnoj opasnosti od raspadanja. Oblikovao nas je proces nemilosrdnog takmičenja. Sačinjeni smo od rđavog kova, podložni iluzijama, samozaljubljenosti i ponekad zapanjujućoj glupošću.
Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources that open a space for a kind of redemption. We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively, to have thoughts about our thoughts. We have an instinct for language, allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience. We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy, for pity, imagination, compassion, commiseration. These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power. The scope of language has been augmented by the written, printed and electronic word. Our circle of sympathy has been expanded by history, journalism and the narrative arts. And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied by the norms and institutions of reason, intellectual curiosity, open debate, skepticism of authority and dogma and the burden of proof to verify ideas by confronting them against reality.
Ipak, ljudska priroda je takođe blagoslovena resursima koji oslobađaju prostor za neki vid iskupljenja. Obdareni smo moći da iznova kombinujemo ideje, da imamo misli o našim mislima. Imamo instinkt za jezik, koji nam omogućuje da delimo plodove naše genijalnosti i iskustva. Produhovljeni smo sposobnošću za saučešće, za sažaljenje, maštu, samilost, saosećanje. Ove obdarenosti su pronašle način da uvećavaju sopstvenu moć. Opseg jezika je proširen pisanom, štampanom i elektronskom rečju. Naš krug saosećanja je proširen istorijom, novinarstvom i pripovednim umetnostima. A naše slabašne racionalne moći su umnožene normama i institucijama razuma, intelektualnom znatiželjom, otvorenom debatom, skepticizmom prema autoritetu i dogmi i teretom dokaza da se potvrde ideje tako što ih suočavamo sa stvarnošću.
As the spiral of recursive improvement gathers momentum, we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down, not least the darker parts of our own nature. We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind. We live longer, suffer less, learn more, get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures and rich experiences. Fewer of us are killed, assaulted, enslaved, exploited or oppressed by the others. From a few oases, the territories with peace and prosperity are growing and could someday encompass the globe. Much suffering remains and tremendous peril, but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced, and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived.
Kako spirala trajnog napretka dobija zamah, crpimo naše pobede protiv sila koje nas mrve, koje su ništa manje nego mračni delovi naše sopstvene prirode. Prodiremo u tajne kosmosa, uključujući život i um. Živimo duže, patimo manje, učimo više, postajemo pametniji i više uživamo u sitnim zadovoljstvima i bogatim iskustvima. Manje ginemo, manje nas napadaju, porobljavaju, izrabljuju ili tlače drugi. Iz nekoliko oaza, teritorije mira i napretka rastu i mogle bi jednog dana da obuhvate planetu. Ostalo je još mnogo patnje i ogromnih opasnosti, ali uobličene su ideje o tome kako da ih umanjimo a još bezbroj drugih tek treba da se začne.
We will never have a perfect world, and it would be dangerous to seek one. But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing. This heroic story is not just another myth. Myths are fictions, but this one is true, true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have. As we learn more, we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false, as any of them might be and any could become.
Nikada nećemo da imamo savršen svet, i bilo bi opasno tragati za njim. Ali nema granice unapređenjima koja možemo da postignemo, ako nastavimo da primenjujemo znanje kako bi uvećali ljudski procvat. Ova junačka priča nije tek još jedan mit. Mitovi su fikcija, ali ova priča je istinita, istinita što se tiče našeg znanja koje je jedina istina koju imamo. Kako učimo više, možemo da pokažemo koji delovi priče su i dalje tačni, a koji nisu, kao što bilo koji može da bude i bilo koji može da postane.
And this story belongs not to any tribe but to all of humanity, to any sentient creature with the power of reason and the urge to persist in its being, for it requires only the convictions that life is better than death, health is better than sickness, abundance is better than want, freedom is better than coercion, happiness is better than suffering and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.
I ova priča ne pripada bilo kom plemenu, već celokupnom čovečanstvu, bilo kom svesnom biću koje poseduje moć razuma i nagon da istraje u svom postojanju jer ona zahteva samo ubeđenje da je život bolji od smrti, zdravlje je bolje od bolesti, obilje je bolje od oskudice, sloboda je bolje od prinude, sreća je bolja od patnje a znanje je bolje od neznanja i sujeverja.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)