You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy, but other people's tragedy. It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy than your own, and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.
ご安心ください 私がお話しするのは 自分自身の悲劇ではなく 他人の悲劇です 私達は他人の悲劇に関しては多少楽観的でいられます それにこの会議の精神を保ちたいので もし報道記事が真実なら
So, if you believe the media accounts, being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel. There was money, there was drugs, guns, women, you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.
クラック コカインの流行が最も盛んな時に麻薬の売人であることは 大変華やかな人生だとヴァージニア ポストレルは言いました 金 ドラッグ 拳銃 女 派手な宝石も 何でも手に入ります
What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research, a unique opportunity to go inside a gang -- to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang -- that the answer turns out not to be that being in the gang was a glamorous life. But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang -- selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America. And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.
今日皆さんにお話するのは 10年に及ぶ実際の調査に基づきます ギャングの中に入って その財務記録の実態を見るまれな機会を得たことから ギャングとはそんなに華やかな人生ではないと分かりました それどころか もっと現実的に ギャングであることや ギャングのために麻薬を売るのは アメリカでも最悪の仕事でしょう それを今日は皆さんに納得していただきます
So there are three things I want to do. First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs. Secondly, I want to tell you how somebody like me came to be able to see the inner workings of a gang -- an interesting story, I think. And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way, about some of the things we found when we actually got to look at the financial records, the books, of the gang.
三つの話をします 最初に クラックがなぜ都内のギャングに これほど深い影響を及ぼしたかを説明します 二番目に 僕みたいな奴がなぜ ギャングの内部を見る事ができたかを話します 面白い話だと思います そして三番目は ギャングの財政記録を実際に見て 解った事のいくつかを 表面的に話します
So before I do that, just one warning, which is that this presentation has been rated 'R' by the Motion Picture Association of America. It contains adult themes, adult language. Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know that, in fact, there'll be no nudity --
その前に 一つ注意をしておきます このプレゼンテーションは米国映画協会からR指定とされ アダルトテーマやアダルト表現が含まれます まあ 僕を見ていただければ わかると思いますが ヌードはありません
(Laughter)
まあ
Unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.
(笑) 服がずれ落ちない限り..
(Laughter)
(笑)
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine, and how it transformed the gang. To do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine, in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader. Being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s -- the early '80s, let me say.
さて クラックとそれがいかにギャングを変えたかについて話しましょう クラック コカイン前 80年代初めの ギャング リーダーの視点から見ていきます 80年代半ば 都心のギャング リーダーでいることは悪くはありません 80年代の初めは--
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up -- you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect. But the thing is, there was no money in it. The gang had no way to make money. You couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang, because the people in the gang didn't have any money. You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana -- marijuana's too cheap, it turns out. You can't get rich selling marijuana. You couldn't sell cocaine; cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine -- but you've got to know rich white people. And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people, so couldn't sell to that market. You couldn't really do petty crime, either. Turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.
絶大な権力があって 人に暴力をふるって-- 多くの名声と多くの尊敬 でもお金持ちではなかった ギャングはお金を儲ける方法がないのです 手下からは徴収できずー 彼らには金がない マリファナは儲かりません マリファナは安すぎたので お金は儲かりません コカインは売れません 粉末コカインは優秀な商品です でも金持ちの白人にしか売れず 都心のギャング メンバーのほとんどは白人に知り合いがなく 市場に出られない 軽犯罪では 生計が立たない
その結果
As a result, as a gang leader, you had, you know, power -- it's a pretty good life -- but the thing was, in the end, you were living at home with your mother. And so it wasn't really a career. There were limits to how powerful and important you could be if you had to live at home with your mother.
ギャング リーダーは権力があって いい生活ができても 実家で母親と住んでいます それに本当の職業じゃない いかに 権力と影響力があっても 母親と一緒ではね...
Then along comes crack cocaine. And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, crack cocaine was the extra-chunky version of tomato sauce for the inner city.
そこでクラックの登場です マルコム グラッドウェルの言葉を借りればクラックは 都心用のトマトの塊入りトマトソースでした (笑)
(Laughter)
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation. I don't have time to talk about it today, but if you think about it, I would say that in the last 25 years, of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country, the biggest one in terms of impact on the well-being of people who live in the inner city, was crack cocaine. And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse. It had a huge impact on life.
クラックは驚くべき革新だったのです これについて話す時間はありません でも 考えてみれば過去25年において アメリカでの全ての発明や革新のうち 都心の住人の福祉に一番大きな影響を与えたのが クラック コカインだと言えます 良い影響ではなく 悪い影響 人生への大きな影響
So what was it about crack cocaine? It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high. Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine -- and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism of delivering a high than snorting it. And it turned out there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine, but when it came, it really did. And it was a perfect drug; you could buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar, sell it for five dollars. Highly addictive -- the high was very short. So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high, and then when you come down, all you want to do is get high again.
ではクラックの魅力とは? ハイな状態になるには最高の方法です 粉末コカインと違い クラックコカインは喫煙できます 喫煙は鼻から吸い込むよりも効率的に ハイになれます クラックは求められていたわけでもないのにあっという間に 広まった 売るにも完璧でした 1ドルで手に入り 5ドルで売れるのです 中毒度が高く -- ハイ状態の時間がとても短い 15分は 最高の気分です それから気分は落ち込み またハイの状態になりたいと願います
It created a wonderful market. And for the people who were there running the gang, it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money. At least for the people on the top.
最高の市場です ギャングを運営する人にも お金を儲ける最高の手段に見えました 少なくともトップには
So this is where we enter the picture. Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this. My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character. He was a math major in college who had a good heart, and decided he wanted to get a sociology PhD, came to the University of Chicago. Now, the three months before he came to Chicago, he had spent following the Grateful Dead. And in his own words, he "looked like a freak." He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian. Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass." Defied all kinds of boundaries: Was he black or white? Was he man or woman? He was really a curious sight to be seen.
ここで僕達の登場です 実は僕はただの端役で 共著者の スディール ヴェンカテッシュが主役です 彼は大学を数学を専攻していた気の良い奴で 社会学の博士号を習得する事に決めて シカゴ大学に来ました シカゴに来る前の3ヶ月は バンドグループ グレイトフル デッドの 追っかけをしており 外見は彼自身の言葉で「まるで気違い」 彼は南アジア人 -- とても浅黒い南アジア人です 大きな男で 髪は 彼の言葉で「ケツにとどく」 あらゆる境界に挑み 黒人か白人? 男か女? 彼は物珍しい"ひと"でした
So he showed up at the University of Chicago, and the famous sociologist William Julius Wilson was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago. He took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him, and decided he knew exactly the place to send him, which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.
彼はシカゴ大学に現れ そして有名な社会学者 ウイリアムJウィルソンは シカゴ中の住人の調査に関する本の作成中でした 彼の為に調査を行うことになったスディールを見て 調査にぴったりの場所を選びました 最も無法で悪名高い公営団地の1つ しかもシカゴだけでなく 米国全域です
So Sudhir, the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city, dutifully took his clipboard and walked down to this housing project, gets to the first building. The first building? Well, there's nobody there. But he hears some voices up in the stairwell, so he climbs up the stairwell, comes around the corner, and finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.
スディールは郊外出身で 都心にほとんど縁がなかったのですが まじめに クリップボードを抱え この公営団地へと出向きました 最初の建物にたどり着き 最初の建物? そこには誰もいません でも階段の吹き抜けの上から声がしたので階段を登ります 角を曲がると 若いアフリカ系アメリカ人の男性グループがダイスをしていました
This is about 1990, peak of the crack epidemic. This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang. You don't like to be surprised. You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner. And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later. Now, Sudhir was lucky -- he was such a freak, and that clipboard probably saved his life, because they figured no other rival gang member would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.
1990年頃で クラック流行の頂点でした ギャングは危険な仕事なのでー驚かされるのを嫌います 角からいきなり驚かされるのは嬉しくない事です まず撃て 質問は後だ がモットーです スディールはラッキーでした 彼はすごく変人で-- クリップボードが彼の命を救いました ギャングはクリップボードで襲撃に来たりはしませんから (笑)
(Laughter)
歓迎こそしなかったものの 彼らは言いました
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say, well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey. So -- I kid you not -- the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was: "How do you feel about being poor and Black in America?"
その調査てぇのを聞いてみようじゃないか 冗談じゃなく 調査のための最初の質問は 「アメリカで
(Laughter)
貧乏かつ黒人である事をどう感じるか?」(笑)
Makes you wonder about academics.
学者ってのは
(Laughter)
(笑)
So the choice of answers were:
選択できる回答は: 大変良い、良い、悪い、大変悪い
[A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad]
(Laughter)
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following: [A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad E) Fuck you]
スディールが実際もらった回答はー (E:クソくらえ)(笑)
(Laughter)
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook. He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell. There was a lot of gunfire, there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members. By morning, the gang leader arrived, checked out Sudhir, decided he was no threat, and they let him go home. So Sudhir went home, took a shower, took a nap.
調査はスディールを危機に陥れ 彼は階段の吹き抜けで一晩中人質にされました 多くの発砲があり 哲学的議論をメンバーと交わしました 明け方リーダーが スディールを調べ 彼は脅威ではないと帰しました スディールは家でシャワーを浴び昼寝して
And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think, "I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead, I've been following them for the last three months."
あなたや僕が こういう目に会ったら多分こう思うでしょう 卒論はグレイトフルデッドについてにしよう 3か月も追っかけたし (笑)
(Laughter)
一方スディールは すぐに その公共住宅に戻りました
Sudhir, on the other hand, got right back, walked down to the housing project, went up to the second floor, and said: "Hey, guys, I had so much fun hanging out with you last night, I wonder if I could do it again tonight." And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years, hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members, having the windows shot out of his car, having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks -- you name it. But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir, who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country. And especially for me, as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open, waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data that he would get from the gang.
2階に上がって こう言いました 「こんにちは 昨晩は楽しかった 今夜もできないかな」 これは美しい友情の始まりとなって スディールは10年にわたり 公共住宅に出入りしました クラック密売所でたむろし ギャングと刑務所に入り 車の窓ガラスを撃たれたり 彼のアパートに侵入した警察にコンピューターディスクを盗まれたり ありとあらゆることがありました 最終的に物語はハッピーエンドとなり 彼は米国で最も尊敬される社会学者の一人となりました オフィスでエクセルを開き 彼がギャングから山のような 最新情報を仕入れるのを待っていた 僕には特に--
(Laughter)
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --
最も不平等な協同著書でしょう
(Laughter)
(笑)
But I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.
私は受益者側であって光栄でした
So what did we find? What did we find in the gang? Well, let me say one thing: We really got access to everybody in the gang. We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top. They trusted Sudhir, in ways that really no academic has ever -- or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs, to the point where they actually opened up what was most interesting for me -- their books, the financial records they kept. They made them available to us, and we not only could study them, but we could ask them questions about what was in them.
さて 僕たちは何を見つけたか?ギャングから何を学んだか? 一つ言わせてください 僕たちはギャングの皆に会い 内部の底辺からトップまで観察しました 彼らはスディールを信用し -- 今までに学者が -- というか外部の誰も --ここまで信用されたものはいません 僕にとって一番興味深い 帳簿 財政的な記録を見せてくれるまでにー 僕たちは 帳簿を借り 調べ 質問もできました
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have what the bottom line of what I take away from the gang is, it's that, if I had to draw a parallel between the gang and any other organization, it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's, in a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.
ギャングから学んだ事の結論を 短時間で短くまとめるとすれば ギャングを他の組織と並行して示すとすれば ギャングはマクドナルドです 様々な点で-
So first, in one way, which isn't maybe the most interesting way, but it's a good way to start -- is in the way it's organized, the hierarchy of the gang, the way it looks. So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like. I don't know if you know much about org charts, but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart, this is exactly what it would look like. It's amazing, but the top level of the gang, they actually call themselves the "Board of Directors."
まず最初に--あまり面白くはありませんが どう組織されているかを見ましょう ギャングの階層を これがギャングの組織図です 組織図はご存知ですか? マクドナルドの組織図を解体し単純化すると 全く同じ組織図になります 驚くべきことに ギャングのトップたちは 彼ら自身をまさに「取締役員」と呼びます
(Laughter)
(笑)
And Sudhir says it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated view of what happened in American corporate life, but they had seen movies like "Wall Street," and they had learned a little bit about what it was like to be in the real world. Now, below that board of directors, you've got essentially what are regional VPs -- people who control, say, the South Side of Chicago, or the West Side of Chicago.
スディール曰く「彼らにアメリカの企業についての 教養があるわけではなく 「ウォール街」のような映画を観て 実体社会を学んだ為でしょう」 その取締役会の下で 基本的に地域のVPがいます- 言わばシカゴの南側や 西側を治める人
Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment of trying to take the Iowa franchise, which, it turned out, for this black gang, was not one of the more brilliant financial endeavors they undertook.
スディールはアイオワ州のフランチャイズを取る事を 不幸にも任命された人と仲良くなります (笑) それは 黒人ギャングが請け負った中でも
(Laughter)
財政面での努力の実らない場所でした
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.
(笑)
The guys who are running the local gangs -- the four-square-block by four-square-block areas -- they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's. They are the entrepreneurs. They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling. They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing. And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit, depending on how good they are at running the business.
しかしギャングとマクドナルドの似た点はそのフランチャイズ手法です 経営者である地方ギャングは 4街区ごとを取り仕切ります 彼らはある意味マクドナルドの店長で 起業家です 麻薬売買の特別な財産権を得て 背後にいるギャング名で販売促進や市場開拓をします 経営次第で儲け 損をするのは 基本的には彼らなのです
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though, are the ones at the bottom -- the foot soldiers. These are the teenagers, typically, who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs. Extremely dangerous work. And important to note is that almost all of the weight, all of the people in this organization are at the bottom -- just like McDonald's. So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people who are taking your order at McDonald's, and it's not just by chance that they're like them. In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people. So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually, at the very same time, typically working part-time at a place like McDonald's. Which already foreshadows the main result that I've talked about, about what a crappy job it was, being in the gang. Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job, why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?
さて皆さんに本当に考えていただきたいのは底辺の 歩兵たちです 主に10代で 街角でドラッグを売る-- 大変危険です 大切なのは組織のほぼ皆かなりの割合が 底辺に 属する事 そうです まるでマクドナルド 歩兵たちは マクドナルドで注文を取る人と 同じだといえます 彼らが似ているのは偶然ではなく この界隈では 同一人物なのです ギャングの為に働いている子供の大半は 同時にマクドナルドのような場所で アルバイトしています 先程の話 ギャングが 儲からないという証明です ギャングが素晴しく儲かる仕事だったら マクドナルドでアルバイトしますか?
So what do the wages look like? You might be surprised. But based on being able to talk to them and to see their records, this is what it looks like in terms of the wages. The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 an hour. It was below the minimum wage. And this is well-documented. It's easy to see by the patterns of consumption they have. It really is not fiction -- it's fact. There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.
では 収入はいくらか? 驚くなかれ 実際 彼らと話し 記録を見て 彼らの収入とは 歩兵の場合は時給3.5ドルです 最低賃金を下回りますね? 文書で裏付けできます 消費のパターンからも簡単に読み取れます 作り事ではなく 事実です ギャングは お金持ちではない 特に底辺は
Now if you managed to rise up, say, and be that local leader, the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee, you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year. And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male. If you managed to rise to the very top, 200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make. Truly, you would be a great success story.
もし 地域のリーダーになれたとしても マクドナルドの店長と同等です 一年での稼ぎは10万ドル それが期待できる最高の仕事です もし それらの界隈で育った黒人男性なら トップになれば 20万から40万ドルは期待でき 成功者と言われます
And one of the sad parts of this is that, indeed, among the many other ramifications of crack cocaine is that the most talented individuals in these communities -- this is what they were striving for. They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways, because there were no legitimate channels out. This was the best way out. And it actually was the right choice, probably, to try to make it out this way.
クラックが及ぼす多くの影響で嘆かわしいのは これらの地域社会の最も有能な個人が その為に 努力する事です 彼らは合法的な方法で成功しようとはしません それでは抜け出せない これが最高の抜け道です そして実際 これは 正しい選択でしょう 見て下さい
You look at this, the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here. The money looks about the same. Why is it such a bad job? Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody shooting at you a lot of the time. So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates? We found, in our gang -- and admittedly, this was not really a standard situation; this was a time of intense violence, of a lot of gang wars, as this gang actually became quite successful. But there were costs. And so the death rate -- not to mention the rate of being arrested, sent to prison, being wounded -- the death rate in our sample was seven percent per person per year. You're in the gang for four years, you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood. That is about as high as you can get.
マクドナルドとの関係はここで崩れます 収入は同じに見えます なぜそんなに酷い仕事か? それは いつも銃で 襲われるから 死亡率はというと? 調査したギャングでは -- これは普通でない 状況下でした 激しい武力衝突や ギャングの戦争があり このギャングは結構成功したのですが 犠牲を伴いました 僕らの取った死亡率は --逮捕され率 刑務所送り 怪我した率を含め-- 年間一人当たり7%です ギャングになって4年目なら 死ぬ確率は25%です これがほぼ最高率でしょう
So for comparison's purposes, let's think about some other walk of life you may expect might be extremely risky. Let's say that you were a murderer and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row. It turns out, the death rates on death row from all causes, including execution: two percent a year.
比較のため 他の生き方を見てみましょう 死ぬ確率が高いと思われる 殺人者なら 有罪となり 死刑囚監房行きです 死刑囚の処刑を含む 全ての原因による死亡率は1年につき2%です
(Laughter)
(笑)
So it's a lot safer being on death row than it is selling drugs out on the street.
死刑囚監房にいる方が 街頭でドラッグを売るより安全なのです
That gives you some pause, for those of you who believe that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime. To give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack -- and I'm not really focusing on the negatives, but really, there's another story to tell you there -- if you look at the death rates just of random, young black males growing up in the inner city in the United States, the death rates during crack were about one percent. That's extremely high. And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.
これは 死刑制度が犯罪の抑止になると 信じる人に再考させることでしょう 悪い面を強調しているわけではないのですが クラック時代の都心の酷さは-- 別の話になりますが-- 米国の都心で 育つ黒人男性の死亡率を無作為にみると-- クラック時代は約1% これは大変高いです 変死の死亡率です 信じられない数字です
To put it into perspective: if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq, for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent. So in some very literal way, the young black men who were growing up in this country were living in a war zone, very much in the sense that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.
全体像で見ると 例えばイラク戦争で 現在の戦っている兵士の死亡率は 0.5% 文字通り この国で育つ若い黒人男性は イラク戦争で戦っている兵士達と 同じような前線で暮らしているのです
So why in the world, you might ask, would anybody be willing to stand out on a street corner selling drugs for $3.50 an hour, with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years? Why would they do that? And I think there are a couple answers.
こう尋ねたくなるでしょう いったい誰が 4年の間に25%の死亡率で 時給3.5ドルでドラッグなんか売るんだ? なぜ彼らはそうするか? 二つほど理由があります
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history. It used to be the gang was a rite of passage; that the young people controlled the gang; that as you got older, you dropped out of the gang. So what happened was, the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time -- the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid-to-late-'80s -- became very, very wealthy. And so the logical thing to think was that they are going to age out of the gang like everybody else has, and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth.
最初の理由は歴史に振り回されていることだと思います ギャングが通過儀礼であったということ ギャングを取り仕切る若者が ある年齢になると ギャングをやめる では何が起こったか 適時適所に居合わせた人が たまたま80年代の終わりにギャングを取り仕切っていて 大変金持ちになった 論理的な考えとしては 次世代は 「歳をとれば彼らはいずれ引退し 次世代が引き継ぎ財産も受け継ぐ」
There are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom. The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich. And then all of my friends said, "Maybe I should go do that, too." And they were willing to work very cheap for stock options that never came. In some sense, that's what happened, exactly, to the set of people we were looking at. They were willing to start at the bottom, just like, say, a first-year lawyer at a law firm is willing to start at the bottom, work 80-hour weeks for not that much money, because they think they're going to make partner. But the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.
インターネットブームと驚くほど似ていませんか? シリコンバレーの最初のグループはかなり裕福になり そして友人の誰もがこう言います「僕も同じ事しようかな」 彼らは安い給料でも仕事を引き受け 期待した富にはたどり着きません ある意味 ギャングの下っ端から始めようという人にも 全く同じ事が起こったといえます 言わば法律事務所の下っ端弁護士のように 1年目は意気込みます 共同経営者になる為 週80時間 低賃金で 実際には 規則が変わり経営者になれません
Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s are still running the major gangs in Chicago today. They never passed on any of the wealth, So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job, and it turned out to be a disaster.
1980年代後期に大手のギャングを仕切っていた人物が 今もシカゴを仕切っているのです 財産も譲らない だから皆時給3.5ドルの仕事から抜け出せず 大変です
The other thing the gang was very good at was marketing and trickery. And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is -- the gang leaders would have big entourages, and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry. So what Sudhir eventually realized as he hung out with them more, is that, really, they didn't own those cars -- they just leased them, because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars. And they didn't really have gold jewelry, they had gold-plated jewelry. It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.
ギャングが得意なものにマーケティングと詐欺があります 例えば ギャングがやることにはー 大勢の取り巻きがいるボスは お洒落な車に乗り派手なアクセサリーを身につける スディールが彼らと一緒に行動して気付いたことは ギャングはこれらの車を所有しておらず 借り物です -彼らにはお洒落な車など買える余裕はなく 金の装身具は 全て金メッキ 正真正銘の本物に対して偽の本物
And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be. So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid a whole roll of bills to hold. That 14-year-old kid would say to his friends, "Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang." It wasn't his money -- until he spent it, and then he was in debt to the gang, and was sort of an indentured servant for a while. So I have a couple minutes.
若者が ギャング人生が素晴しいと信じるよう トリックの全てを駆使して 例えば 彼らは14歳の子供に 丸めた札束を握らせたり その子は友達に こう言います 「ギャングにもらったんだ」 それは使うまでは彼のお金ではなく・・ そして借金となり しばらく年季奉公となります あと数分あるので
Let me do one last thing I hadn't thought I'd have time to do, which is to talk about what we learned more generally about economics, from the study of the gang.
最後に ギャングを調査することで学んだ 一般的な経済学についてお話します
So, economists tend to talk in technical words. Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we over the data, but what's kind of interesting is that in this setting, it turned out that some of the economic theories that worked not so well in the real economy worked very well in the drug economy, in some sense, because it's unfettered capitalism. Here's an economic principle. This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics, called a "compensating differential." It's the idea that the increment to wages that a worker requires to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks, one which is more unpleasant than the other. Compensating differential -- it's why we think garbagemen might be paid more than people who work in parks.
経済学者は専門用語で語り 理論がしばしばデータと相反します でも実際 興味深いのは この設定は 実体経済に当てはまらなかった経済学の理論が ドラック経済にうまく当てはまる事です ある意味 純粋な資本主義だからです 経済学の原則に 労働経済学の基本的な考えの一つ 「補償格差」があります 基本的に 労働者に賃金を多めに支払うことで 二つの仕事を平等に近づけ 不快な仕事の 埋め合わせを するものです ゴミ回収員は公園で働く人より高い賃金を支払われる--
The words of one of the members of the gang, I think, make this clear. So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself -- it turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on, they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money. It's exactly this concept. Because they're not willing to be at risk. And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely, he says: "Would you stand around here when all this shit ..." -- the shooting -- "... if all this shit's going on? No, right? So if I gonna be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man." I think the gang member says it much more articulately than the economist, about what's going on.
ギャングの一員の話 これを明白に語ります 僕は少々先走りしすぎたようです ギャングは 闘争中に 歩兵に2倍の金額を支払います まさに 同じ概念です 危険にさらされるのは嫌なものです ギャングはこれを上手く表現します 「こんなヤバい(撃ち合い)中 立ってられっか?」 タマに当たるだろ それで 命はれって言われちゃ 前金もらわなきゃね」 元来 ギャングは何か起きているかを 経済学者よりもはっきりと言います
(Laughter)
(笑)
Here's another one. Economists talk about game theory, that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium. Here's the translation you get from the gang member. They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot -- One thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang: if you go and just shoot guns in the air in the other gang's territory -- people are afraid to go buy drugs there, they're going to come into your neighborhood.
別の例で 経済学者は言います 二人用ゲームにはナッシュ均衡がある ギャングメンバーの言葉を借りると 彼らが銃を撃たないと決めた理由は - ギャングのすぐれたビジネス戦術の一つ 他のギャング領土で 銃を空中に撃てば 人は そこへドラッグを買いに行くことを恐れ あなたのシマで買う
Here's what he says about why they don't do that: "If we start shooting around there, the other gang's territory, nobody, I mean, you dig it, nobody gonna step on their turf. But we gotta be careful, 'cause they can shoot around here too and then we all fucked."
しかし 彼らはそうしません 理由はこうです 「俺らがやつらのシマで撃ち始めたらどうなる そんなことしてみろよ あいつらもここに来て 撃ったら大変じゃん」 (笑)
(Laughter)
全く同じ概念です
So that's the same concept. Then again, sometimes economists get it wrong. One thing we observed in the data is that it looked like -- the gang leader always got paid. No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.
でも経済学者も間違うことがあります データを観察して一つ分かったのが ギャングのリーダーには常に収入があること どんなに悪い経済状態でも 常に自分に給料を払います
We had some theories related to cash flow, and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that. Then we asked the gang member, "Why is it you always get paid and your workers don't always get paid?" His response is, "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig? If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit." And I thought about it and said, "CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses, even when companies are losing a lot of money. And it never would really occur to an economist that this idea of 'weak and shit' could really be important."
現金の流れや資本市場への アクセス不足の理論があるので ギャングの一員に 「なぜ 自分はいつも給料があって 部下にはなかったりするの?」と聞くと 「あいつらみんな 俺の地位を狙ってんだぜ 負けを認めたら見くびられるぜ」 私は考えました 「CEOは しばしば自身に100万ドルのボーナスを与える 会社が大損してても でも”見くびられる”という思考の重要性は経済学者には 思いもつかない」
(Laughter)
しかし「見くびられる」というのは
Maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.
もっと分析すべき重要な仮説かもしれません
Thank you very much.
ありがとうございました
(Applause)