The key question is, "When are we going to get fusion?" It's really been a long time since we've known about fusion. We've known about fusion since 1920, when Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington and the British Association for the Advancement of Science conjectured that that's why the sun shines.
Ključno pitanje jeste, ''Kako ćemo stvoriti fuziju?'' Već dugo vremena znamo za fuziju. Za nju znamo još od 1920, kada su Ser Artur Stenli Edington i britansko udruženje za unapređenje nauke pretpostavili da je to razlog zašto sunce sija.
I've always been very worried about resource. I don't know about you, but when my mother gave me food, I always sorted the ones I disliked from the ones I liked. And I ate the disliked ones first, because the ones you like, you want to save. And as a child you're always worried about resource. And once it was sort of explained to me how fast we were using up the world's resources, I got very upset, about as upset as I did when I realized that the Earth will only last about five billion years before it's swallowed by the sun. Big events in my life, a strange child. (Laughter)
Uvek su me brinuli resursi. Ne znam za vas, ali kada mi je majka davala da jedem uvek sam odvajao hranu koju nisam voleo od one koju jesam voleo. I prvo sam jeo onu koju nisam voleo, jer želite da sačuvate onu koju volite. I kao dete uvek ste zabrinuti za resurse. I jednom kada mi je objašnjeno koliko brzo trošimo svetske resurse, bio sam veoma uznemiren, otprilike onoliko uznemiren kao kada sam shvatio da će planeta Zemlja postojati još samo nekih pet milijardi godina pre nego što je proguta sunce. Važni događaji u mom životu, bio sam čudno dete. (Smeh)
Energy, at the moment, is dominated by resource. The countries that make a lot of money out of energy have something underneath them. Coal-powered industrial revolution in this country -- oil, gas, sorry. (Laughter) Gas, I'm probably the only person who really enjoys it when Mister Putin turns off the gas tap, because my budget goes up.
Energijom, u ovom trenutku, dominiraju resursi. Zemlje koje zarađuju puno novca od energije imaju nešto ispod sebe. Industrijska revolucija u ovoj zemlji se bazirala na uglju -- nafti, gasu, izvinite. (Smeh) Gas, ja sam verovatno jedina osoba koja se stvarno raduje kada Putin zavrne slavinu za gas, jer moj budžet poraste.
We're really dominated now by those things that we're using up faster and faster and faster. And as we try to lift billions of people out of poverty in the Third World, in the developing world, we're using energy faster and faster. And those resources are going away. And the way we'll make energy in the future is not from resource, it's really from knowledge. If you look 50 years into the future, the way we probably will be making energy is probably one of these three, with some wind, with some other things, but these are going to be the base load energy drivers.
Stvarno smo sada pod uticajem onih stvari koje koristimo sve brže i brže i brže. I dok pokušavamo da izvučemo na milijarde ljudi iz siromaštva u Trećem svetu, u zemljama u razvoju, koristimo energiju sve brže i brže. A ti resursi nestaju. A način na koji ćemo dobijati energiju u budućnosti nije iz resursa, već zapravo iz znanja. Ako pogledate 50 godina u budućnost, način na koji ćemo najverovatnije dobijati energiju je najverovatnije jedan od ova tri, sa nešto vetra, sa nekim drugim stvarima, ali ovo će biti glavni energetski pokretači.
Solar can do it, and we certainly have to develop solar. But we have a lot of knowledge to gain before we can make solar the base load energy supply for the world. Fission. Our government is going to put in six new nuclear power stations. They're going to put in six new nuclear power stations, and probably more after that. China is building nuclear power stations. Everybody is. Because they know that that is one sure way to do carbon-free energy.
To može solarna energija i svakako je moramo razvijati. Ali moramo da steknemo još mnogo znanja pre nego što solarna energija postane glavni energetski izvor na svetu. Fisija. Naša vlada će sagraditi šest novih nuklearnih elektrana. Oni će sagraditi šest novih nuklearnih elektrana, i verovatno još nakon toga. Kina gradi nuklearne elektrane. Svi ih grade. Jer znaju da je to jedini sigurni način dobijanja energije bez ugljenika.
But if you wanted to know what the perfect energy source is, the perfect energy source is one that doesn't take up much space, has a virtually inexhaustible supply, is safe, doesn't put any carbon into the atmosphere, doesn't leave any long-lived radioactive waste: it's fusion. But there is a catch. Of course there is always a catch in these cases. Fusion is very hard to do. We've been trying for 50 years.
Ali ako vas zanima savršeni energetski izvor, savršeni energetski izvor je onaj koji ne zauzima puno prostora, ima skoro neiscrpne zalihe, bezbedan je, ne ispušta ugljenik u atmosferu, ne ostavlja dugotrajni radioaktivni otpad, a to je fuzija. Ali postoji ''kvaka''. Naravno uvek postoji ''kvaka'' u ovim slučajevima. Teško je stvoriti fuziju. Pokušavamo već 50 godina.
Okay. What is fusion? Here comes the nuclear physics. And sorry about that, but this is what turns me on. (Laughter) I was a strange child. Nuclear energy comes for a simple reason. The most stable nucleus is iron, right in the middle of the periodic table. It's a medium-sized nucleus. And you want to go towards iron if you want to get energy. So, uranium, which is very big, wants to split. But small atoms want to join together, small nuclei want to join together to make bigger ones to go towards iron.
U redu. Šta je fuzija? Evo malo nuklearne fizike. Izvinjavam se zbog toga, ali ovo me stvarno pali. (Smeh) Bio sam čudno dete. Nuklearna energija nastaje iz prostog razloga. Najstabiljne jezgro ima gvožđe, u središtu periodnog sistema. To je jezgro srednje veličine. I želite da idete ka gvožđu ako želite da dobijete energiju. A, uran, koji je veoma veliki, želi da se cepa. Ali mali atomi žele da se spajaju, mala jezgra žele da se spajaju da bi stvorila veća i išla ka gvožđu.
And you can get energy out this way. And indeed that's exactly what stars do. In the middle of stars, you're joining hydrogen together to make helium and then helium together to make carbon, to make oxygen, all the things that you're made of are made in the middle of stars. But it's a hard process to do because, as you know, the middle of a star is quite hot, almost by definition. And there is one reaction that's probably the easiest fusion reaction to do. It's between two isotopes of hydrogen, two kinds of hydrogen: deuterium, which is heavy hydrogen, which you can get from seawater, and tritium which is super-heavy hydrogen.
I na taj način dobijate energiju. I to je zapravo ono što zvezde rade. U središtu zvezda spajate vodonik da biste dobili helijum, a onda spajate helijum da biste dobili ugljenik, da biste dobili kiseonik, sve stvari od kojih smo napravljeni se prave u središtu zvezda. Ali ovo je težak proces jer, kao što znate, središte zvezda je veoma vruće, skoro po definiciji. I postoji jedna reakcija koja je verovatno najjednostavnija fuziona reakcija. Ona se odvija između dva izotopa vodonika, dve vrste vodonika, deuterijuma, koji je težak vodonik, koji se dobija iz morske vode, i tritijuma koji je super teški vodonik.
These two nuclei, when they're far apart, are charged. And you push them together and they repel. But when you get them close enough, something called the strong force starts to act and pulls them together. So, most of the time they repel. You get them closer and closer and closer and then at some point the strong force grips them together. For a moment they become helium 5, because they've got five particles inside them.
Ova dva jezgra, kada su daleko udaljena, su naelektrisana. I ako ih približite, ona se odbijaju. Ali ako ih dovoljno približite, nešto što se naziva jaka sila počinje da deluje i privlači ih. I oni se uglavnom odbijaju. Kada ih približavate sve više i više u jednom trenutku jaka sila ih uhvati zajedno. Na trenutak postaju helijum 5, jer imaju pet čestica u sebi.
So, that's that process there. Deuterium and tritium goes together makes helium 5. Helium splits out, and a neutron comes out and lots of energy comes out. If you can get something to about 150 million degrees, things will be rattling around so fast that every time they collide in just the right configuration, this will happen, and it will release energy. And that energy is what powers fusion. And it's this reaction that we want to do.
I to je proces ovde. Deuterijum i tritijum zajedno prave helijum 5. Helijum se cepa i izlazi neutron i izlazi puno energije. Ako možete zagrejati nešto na oko 150 miliona stepeni, stvari će zujati okolo toliko brzo da svaki put kada se sudare u baš pravoj konfiguraciji, to će se dogoditi i oslobodiće energiju. I ta energija je ono što napaja fuziju. I to je reakcija koju želimo da dobijemo.
There is one trickiness about this reaction. Well, there is a trickiness that you have to make it 150 million degrees, but there is a trickiness about the reaction yet. It's pretty hot. The trickiness about the reaction is that tritium doesn't exist in nature. You have to make it from something else. And you make if from lithium. That reaction at the bottom, that's lithium 6, plus a neutron, will give you more helium, plus tritium. And that's the way you make your tritium. But fortunately, if you can do this fusion reaction, you've got a neutron, so you can make that happen.
Postoji jedna začkoljica kod ove reakcije. Zapravo i zagrevanje do 150 miliona stepeni je samo po sebi teško, ali začkoljica je vezana za reakciju. To je prilično vruće. Problem u vezi sa reakcijom jeste da tritijum ne postoji u prirodi. Morate ga napraviti od nečega drugog. I on se dobija od litijuma. Ova reakcija na dnu, to je litijum 6, plus neutron, će vam dati više helijuma, plus tritijum. I tako pravite tritijum. Ali na sreću, ako imate ovu fuzionu reakciju, imate neutron, pa možete to da izvedete.
Now, why the hell would we bother to do this? This is basically why we would bother to do it. If you just plot how much fuel we've got left, in units of present world consumption. And as you go across there you see a few tens of years of oil -- the blue line, by the way, is the lowest estimate of existing resources. And the yellow line is the most optimistic estimate.
A zašto bi se koga vraga trudili da to radimo? U suštini zbog ovoga se trudimo. Ako samo ucrtate koliko goriva je ostalo, u jedinicama sadašnje potrošnje u svetu. I kako prelazite preko ovoga vidite nekoliko desetina godina nafte -- plava linija, zapravo, je najmanja procena postojećih resursa. A žuta linija je najoptimističnija procena.
And as you go across there you will see that we've got a few tens of years, and perhaps 100 years of fossil fuels left. And god knows we don't really want to burn all of it, because it will make an awful lot of carbon in the air. And then we get to uranium. And with current reactor technology we really don't have very much uranium. And we will have to extract uranium from sea water, which is the yellow line, to make conventional nuclear power stations actually do very much for us. This is a bit shocking, because in fact our government is relying on that for us to meet Kyoto, and do all those kind of things.
I kako gledate duž ovoga videćete da imamo par desetina godina, možda 100 godina upotrebe fosilnih goriva koje nam ostaju. A bog zna da stvarno ne želimo da sve ovo sagorimo. Jer će to ispustiti jako mnogo ugljenika u vazduh. A onda dolazimo do urana. A sa sadašnjom reaktorskom tehnologijom zapravo nemamo baš mnogo urana. I moraćemo da dobijamo uran iz morske vode, što je ova žuta linija, da bismo pravili konvencionalne nuklearne elektrane da bi zaista išta radile za nas. To je malo šokantno, jer zapravo naša vlada računa na nas da ispunimo Kjoto Protokol, i da uradimo sve te stvari.
To go any further you would have to have breeder technology. And breeder technology is fast breeders. And that's pretty dangerous. The big thing, on the right, is the lithium we have in the world. And lithium is in sea water. That's the yellow line. And we have 30 million years worth of fusion fuel in sea water. Everybody can get it. That's why we want to do fusion. Is it cost-competitive? We make estimates of what we think it would cost to actually make a fusion power plant. And we get within about the same price as current electricity.
Da biste išli dalje morate imati oplodnu tehnologiju. A oplodna tehnologija znači brze oplodne reaktore. A to je dosta opasno. Ovo veliko ovde, sa desne strane, je litijum koji postoji na svetu. A litijum je u morskoj vodi. To je žuta linija. I imamo 30 miliona godina fuzionog goriva iz morske vode. Svako ga može dobiti. Zato želimo da radimo fuziju. Ali da li su njegove cene konkurentne? Mi pravimo procene onoga koliko smatramo da će koštati da zaista napravimo fuzionu elektranu. I dobijamo okvirno istu cenu kao sadašnje struje.
So, how would we make it? We have to hold something at 150 million degrees. And, in fact, we've done this. We hold it with a magnetic field. And inside it, right in the middle of this toroidal shape, doughnut shape, right in the middle is 150 million degrees. It boils away in the middle at 150 million degrees. And in fact we can make fusion happen. And just down the road, this is JET. It's the only machine in the world that's actually done fusion.
Kako bismo je dobili? Moramo nešto održavati na 150 miliona stepeni. I zapravo to smo uradili. Držimo ga uz pomoć magnetnog polja. A unutra, u samom središtu ovog prstenastog oblika, krofne, u samom središtu je 150 miliona stepeni. Ključa u sredini na 150 miliona stepeni. I zapravo možemo izvesti fuziju. A niz ulicu, nalazi se JET. To je jedina mašina na svetu koja je stvarno izvela fuziju.
When people say fusion is 30 years away, and always will be, I say, "Yeah, but we've actually done it." Right? We can do fusion. In the center of this device we made 16 megawatts of fusion power in 1997. And in 2013 we're going to fire it up again and break all those records. But that's not really fusion power. That's just making some fusion happen. We've got to take that, we've got to make that into a fusion reactor. Because we want 30 million years worth of fusion power for the Earth. This is the device we're building now.
Kada ljudi kažu da za fuziju treba 30 godina, i uvek hoće, kažem, ''Da, ali mi smo je zapravo uradili''. Shvatate? Možemo da postignemo fuziju. U centru ovog uređaja stvorili smo 16 megavata fuzione snage 1997. godine. A 2013. ponovo ćemo ga pokrenuti i pobiti sve te rekorde. Ali to nije stvarno fuziona energija. To je samo stvaranje fuzije. Moramo da uzmemo to i ugradimo ga u fuzioni reaktor. Jer želimo 30 miliona godina vrednu fuzionu energiju za Zemlju. Ovo je uređaj koji sada gradimo.
It gets very expensive to do this research. It turns out you can't do fusion on a table top despite all that cold fusion nonsense. Right? You can't. You have to do it in a very big device. More than half the world's population is involved in building this device in southern France, which is a nice place to put an experiment. Seven nations are involved in building this. It's going to cost us 10 billion. And we'll produce half a gigawatt of fusion power. But that's not electricity yet. We have to get to this. We have to get to a power plant. We have to start putting electricity on the grid in this very complex technology. And I'd really like it to happen a lot faster than it is. But at the moment, all we can imagine is sometime in the 2030s.
Postaje veoma skupo baviti se ovim istraživanjima. Ispostavlja se da ne možete raditi fuziju za radnim stolom uprkos svim tim budalaštinama o hladnoj fuziji. Shvatate? Ne možete. Morate to raditi sa veoma velikim uređajem. Više od pola ljudi na planeti je uključeno u izgradnju ovog uređaja na jugu Francuske. Što je lepo mesto za eksperiment. Sedam država je uključeno u izgradnju ovoga. Koštaće nas 10 milijardi. A dobićemo pola gigavata fuzione energije. Ali to još nije struja. Moramo doći do ovoga. Moramo doći do elektrane. Moramo da počnemo sa unosom struje u mrežu tom veoma složenom tehnologijom. I veoma bih voleo da se to događa brže nego sada. Ali za sada možemo da predvidimo tek tokom 2030-ih godina.
I wish this were different. We really need it now. We're going to have a problem with power in the next five years in this country. So 2030 looks like an infinity away. But we can't abandon it now; we have to push forward, get fusion to happen. I wish we had more money, I wish we had more resources. But this is what we're aiming at, sometime in the 2030s -- real electric power from fusion. Thank you very much. (Applause)
Voleo bih da je drugačije. Potrebna nam je sada. Imaćemo problem sa energijom u sledećih pet godina u ovoj zemlji. Zato 2030. godina izgleda beskonačno daleko. Ali ne možemo odustati sada, moramo gurati napred, da ostvarimo fuziju. Voleo bih da imamo više novca, da imamo više resursa. Ali ovo nam je cilj, nekada tokom 2030-ih godina -- prava struja od fuzije. Hvala vam puno. (Aplauz)