The key question is, "When are we going to get fusion?" It's really been a long time since we've known about fusion. We've known about fusion since 1920, when Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington and the British Association for the Advancement of Science conjectured that that's why the sun shines.
Ključno pitanje je, "Kada ćemo postići fuziju?" Već je prošlo mnogo vremena otkad znamo za fuziju. Znamo za fuziju od 1920., kada su Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington i Britanska Udruga za napredak znanosti zaključili kako je to razlog zbog kojeg sunce sija.
I've always been very worried about resource. I don't know about you, but when my mother gave me food, I always sorted the ones I disliked from the ones I liked. And I ate the disliked ones first, because the ones you like, you want to save. And as a child you're always worried about resource. And once it was sort of explained to me how fast we were using up the world's resources, I got very upset, about as upset as I did when I realized that the Earth will only last about five billion years before it's swallowed by the sun. Big events in my life, a strange child. (Laughter)
Uvijek sam bio jako zabrinut o izvoru. Ne znam kako vi, ali kada bi mi majka dala hranu uvijek bih odvajao onu koju nisam volio od one koju sam volio. I jeo bih onu koju nisam volio prvu, jer onu koju volite, želite sačuvati. I kao dijete uvijek ste zabrinuti o izvoru. I jednom kada mi je, na neki način, bilo objašnjeno kako brzo trošimo svjetske resurse, jako sam se uznemirio, gotovo jednako kao i kad sam shvatio da će Zemlja još biti tu oko pet milijardi godina prije nego je sunce proguta. Veliki događaji u mom životu, čudno dijete. (Smijeh)
Energy, at the moment, is dominated by resource. The countries that make a lot of money out of energy have something underneath them. Coal-powered industrial revolution in this country -- oil, gas, sorry. (Laughter) Gas, I'm probably the only person who really enjoys it when Mister Putin turns off the gas tap, because my budget goes up.
Energija je, trenutno, pod utjecajem resursa. Zemlje koje zarađuju mnogo novca od energije imaju nešto ispod njih. Ugljenom predvođena industrijska revolucija u ovoj zemlji - nafta, plin, oprostite. (Smijeh) Plin, ja sam vjerojatno jedina osoba koja istinski uživa kada gosp. Putin prekine dovod plina, jer tada moj budžet raste.
We're really dominated now by those things that we're using up faster and faster and faster. And as we try to lift billions of people out of poverty in the Third World, in the developing world, we're using energy faster and faster. And those resources are going away. And the way we'll make energy in the future is not from resource, it's really from knowledge. If you look 50 years into the future, the way we probably will be making energy is probably one of these three, with some wind, with some other things, but these are going to be the base load energy drivers.
Stvarno smo sada pod utjecajem stvari koje trošimo sve brže i brže i brže. I kako pokušavamo izbaviti milijarde ljudi iz siromaštva u Trećem svijetu, u svijetu u razvoju, koristimo energiju sve brže i brže. I ti resursi nestaju. I način na koji ćemo dobivati energiju u budućnosti, nije iz resursa, već je istinski iz znanja. Ako pogledate 50 godina u budućnost, način na koji ćemo vjerojatno dobivati energiju je vjerojatno jedan od ova tri, s ponešto vjetra, s nekim drugim stvarima, ali ove će biti temeljni pokretači energije.
Solar can do it, and we certainly have to develop solar. But we have a lot of knowledge to gain before we can make solar the base load energy supply for the world. Fission. Our government is going to put in six new nuclear power stations. They're going to put in six new nuclear power stations, and probably more after that. China is building nuclear power stations. Everybody is. Because they know that that is one sure way to do carbon-free energy.
Solarna energija to može izvesti, i moramo, svakako, razviti solarnu energiju. Ali moramo usvojiti mnogo znanja prije nego što učinimo solarnu energiju temeljnom zalihom energije u svijetu. Fisija. Naša vlada će izgraditi šest novih nuklearnih elektrana. Postavit će šest novih nuklearnih elektrana, i vjerojatno još nakon toga. Kina gradi nuklearne elektrane. Svi ih grade. Jer znaju kako je to jedan siguran način za proizvodnju energije bez ugljika.
But if you wanted to know what the perfect energy source is, the perfect energy source is one that doesn't take up much space, has a virtually inexhaustible supply, is safe, doesn't put any carbon into the atmosphere, doesn't leave any long-lived radioactive waste: it's fusion. But there is a catch. Of course there is always a catch in these cases. Fusion is very hard to do. We've been trying for 50 years.
Ali ako ste željeli znati koji je savršen izvor energije, savršen izvor energije je onaj koji ne zauzima previše prostora, ima, virtualno nepresušive zalihe, siguran je, ne emitira ugljik u atmosferu, ne ostavlja nikakv radioaktivni otpad koji je aktivan godinama, to je fuzija. Ali tu je kvaka. Naravno da u takvim slučajevima uvijek postoji kvaka. Fuziju je teško stvoriti. Pokušavamo već 50 godina.
Okay. What is fusion? Here comes the nuclear physics. And sorry about that, but this is what turns me on. (Laughter) I was a strange child. Nuclear energy comes for a simple reason. The most stable nucleus is iron, right in the middle of the periodic table. It's a medium-sized nucleus. And you want to go towards iron if you want to get energy. So, uranium, which is very big, wants to split. But small atoms want to join together, small nuclei want to join together to make bigger ones to go towards iron.
Dobro. Što je fuzija? Sada dolazi nuklearna fizika. I oprostite zbog toga, ali to je ono što me uzbuđuje. (Smijeh) Bio sam čudno dijete. Nuklearna energija dolazi iz jednostavnog razloga. Najstabilniji nukleus je željezo, upravo u sredini periodičkog sustava. To je nukleus srednje veličine. I ako želite dobiti energiju, idete prema željezu. Dakle, uranijum koji je jako velik, se želi rascijepati. Ali mali atomi se žele udružiti, mali nukleusi se žele udružiti kako bi stvorili veće da bi išli prema željezu.
And you can get energy out this way. And indeed that's exactly what stars do. In the middle of stars, you're joining hydrogen together to make helium and then helium together to make carbon, to make oxygen, all the things that you're made of are made in the middle of stars. But it's a hard process to do because, as you know, the middle of a star is quite hot, almost by definition. And there is one reaction that's probably the easiest fusion reaction to do. It's between two isotopes of hydrogen, two kinds of hydrogen: deuterium, which is heavy hydrogen, which you can get from seawater, and tritium which is super-heavy hydrogen.
I na taj način možete dobiti energiju. I doista, to je ono što zvijezde čine. Usred zvijezda udružujete vodik kako bi stvorili helij i zatim udružujete helij kako bi stvorili ugljik, kako bi stvorili kisik, sve stvari od kojih ste vi napravljeni su stvorene u sredini zvijezda. Ali to je težak proces za postići jer, kao što znate, sredina zvijezda je prilično vruća, skoro po definiciji. I postoji jedna reakcija. To je vjerojatno najjednostavnija reakcija fuzije koja se može napraviti. Nalazi se između dva izotopa vodika, dvije vrste vodika, deuterij, koji je težak vodik, koji možete dobiti iz morske vode, i tritij koji je super-težak vodik.
These two nuclei, when they're far apart, are charged. And you push them together and they repel. But when you get them close enough, something called the strong force starts to act and pulls them together. So, most of the time they repel. You get them closer and closer and closer and then at some point the strong force grips them together. For a moment they become helium 5, because they've got five particles inside them.
Ta dva nukleusa, kada su jako daleko jedan on drugoga, oni su napunjeni. I gurate ih zajedno i oni se odbijaju. Ali kada ih dovoljno približite, nešto zvano snažna sila počinje djelovati i vuče ih zajedno. Dakle, većinu vremena oni se odbijaju. Dovedete li ih bliže i bliže i bliže i tada u jednoj točki snažna ih sila spoji zajedno. Za trenutak postanu helij 5, jer se u njima nalazi pet čestica.
So, that's that process there. Deuterium and tritium goes together makes helium 5. Helium splits out, and a neutron comes out and lots of energy comes out. If you can get something to about 150 million degrees, things will be rattling around so fast that every time they collide in just the right configuration, this will happen, and it will release energy. And that energy is what powers fusion. And it's this reaction that we want to do.
Dakle, to je taj proces. Deuterij i tritij prilikom spajanja tvore helij 5. Helij se dijeli, i neutron izlazi van i mnogo energije izlazi van. Ukoliko možete dovesti nešto na 150 milijuna stupnjeva, stvari će pucketati tako brzo da svaki put kada se sudare u pravoj konfiguraciji, to će se dogoditi, i oslobodit će energiju. I ta energija je ono što napaja fuziju. I to je ta reakcija koju želimo stvarati.
There is one trickiness about this reaction. Well, there is a trickiness that you have to make it 150 million degrees, but there is a trickiness about the reaction yet. It's pretty hot. The trickiness about the reaction is that tritium doesn't exist in nature. You have to make it from something else. And you make if from lithium. That reaction at the bottom, that's lithium 6, plus a neutron, will give you more helium, plus tritium. And that's the way you make your tritium. But fortunately, if you can do this fusion reaction, you've got a neutron, so you can make that happen.
Ima jedna kvaka oko te reakcije. Pa, kvaka je da morate stvoriti 150 milijuna stupnjeva, ali postoji kvaka i u samoj reakciji. Prilično je vruće. Kvaka oko reakcije jest da tritij ne postoji u prirodi. Morate ga stvoriti iz nečeg drugog. A stvorite ga iz litija. Ta reakcija pri dnu, to je litij 6, plus neutron, će vam dati više helija, plus tritij. I to je način na koji stvorite svoj tritij. Na sreću, ukoliko možete stvoriti tu reakciju fuzije, imate neutron, tako da to možete napraviti.
Now, why the hell would we bother to do this? This is basically why we would bother to do it. If you just plot how much fuel we've got left, in units of present world consumption. And as you go across there you see a few tens of years of oil -- the blue line, by the way, is the lowest estimate of existing resources. And the yellow line is the most optimistic estimate.
Sada, zašto bismo se, pobogu, trudili da to učinimo? Ovo je zapravo zašto bismo se trudili da to učinimo. Ako isplanirate koliko goriva nam je ostalo, u jedinicama sadašnje svjetske potrošnje. I kako idete preko, vidite nekoliko desetljeća nafte - plava linija, usput rečeno, je najniža procjena postojećih resursa. A žuta linija je najoptimističnija procjena.
And as you go across there you will see that we've got a few tens of years, and perhaps 100 years of fossil fuels left. And god knows we don't really want to burn all of it, because it will make an awful lot of carbon in the air. And then we get to uranium. And with current reactor technology we really don't have very much uranium. And we will have to extract uranium from sea water, which is the yellow line, to make conventional nuclear power stations actually do very much for us. This is a bit shocking, because in fact our government is relying on that for us to meet Kyoto, and do all those kind of things.
I kako idete preko ovoga vidjet ćete kako nam je ostalo za nekoliko desetljeća, i možda za 100 godina fosilnih goriva na raspolaganju. I Bog zna da ne želimo sve to potrošiti. Jer će se ispustiti mnogo ugljika u zrak. I tako dolazimo do uranijuma. I sa trenutnom tehnologijom reaktora, doista nam ne preostaje mnogo uranijuma. I morat ćemo vaditi uranijum iz morske vode, koja predstavlja žutu liniju, kako bi primorali konvencionalne nuklearne elektrane da doista rade jako puno za nas. To je pomalo šokirajuće, jer, zapravo, naša vlada se oslanja na nas da se pridržavamo Kyota, i radimo stvari takve naravi.
To go any further you would have to have breeder technology. And breeder technology is fast breeders. And that's pretty dangerous. The big thing, on the right, is the lithium we have in the world. And lithium is in sea water. That's the yellow line. And we have 30 million years worth of fusion fuel in sea water. Everybody can get it. That's why we want to do fusion. Is it cost-competitive? We make estimates of what we think it would cost to actually make a fusion power plant. And we get within about the same price as current electricity.
Kako bi išli dalje, morali bi posjedovati tehnologiju uzgajivača. A tehnologija uzgajivača se sastoji od brzih uzgajivača. A to je prilično opasno. Velika stvar, na desno, je litij koji nam je dostupan. A litij je u morskoj vodi. To je žuta linija. I u morskoj vodi imamo fuzijskog goriva za dodatnih 30 milijuna godina. Svatko može doći do njega. Zato želimo stvarati fuziju. Je li cjenovno konkurentno? Radimo procjene prema kojima razmišljamo koliki bi bio trošak zapravo sagraditi fuzijsku elektranu. I dolazimo do poprilično iste cijene kao trenutna struja.
So, how would we make it? We have to hold something at 150 million degrees. And, in fact, we've done this. We hold it with a magnetic field. And inside it, right in the middle of this toroidal shape, doughnut shape, right in the middle is 150 million degrees. It boils away in the middle at 150 million degrees. And in fact we can make fusion happen. And just down the road, this is JET. It's the only machine in the world that's actually done fusion.
Dakle, kako ćemo to stvoriti? Moramo držati nešto na 150 milijuna stupnjeva. I, u biti, mi smo to napravili. Držimo je sa magnetskim poljem. A unutra, u samoj sredini tog toroidalnog oblika, oblika krafne, u samoj sredini je 150 milijuna stupnjeva. Ono ključa u sredini na 150 milijuna stupnjeva. I, u biti, možemo stvoriti fuziju. I malo dalje uz cestu, ovo je JET. To je jedini stroj na svijetu koji je stvorio fuziju.
When people say fusion is 30 years away, and always will be, I say, "Yeah, but we've actually done it." Right? We can do fusion. In the center of this device we made 16 megawatts of fusion power in 1997. And in 2013 we're going to fire it up again and break all those records. But that's not really fusion power. That's just making some fusion happen. We've got to take that, we've got to make that into a fusion reactor. Because we want 30 million years worth of fusion power for the Earth. This is the device we're building now.
Kada ljudi kažu kako je fuzija 30 godina naprijed, i uvijek će biti, ja kažem, "Da, ali mi smo to napravili." Zar ne? Možemo stvoriti fuziju. U središtu ovog uređaja smo stvorili 16 megawata fuzijske snage 1997. A 2013. ćemo ga ponovno upaliti i srušiti sve te rekorde. Ali to nije prava snaga dobivena iz fuzije. To je samo stvaranje djelića fuzije. Moramo uzeti to, moramo to pretvoriti u fuzijski reaktor. Jer želimo da fuzija vrijedna 30 milijuna godina napaja Zemlju. Ovo je uređaj koji sada gradimo.
It gets very expensive to do this research. It turns out you can't do fusion on a table top despite all that cold fusion nonsense. Right? You can't. You have to do it in a very big device. More than half the world's population is involved in building this device in southern France, which is a nice place to put an experiment. Seven nations are involved in building this. It's going to cost us 10 billion. And we'll produce half a gigawatt of fusion power. But that's not electricity yet. We have to get to this. We have to get to a power plant. We have to start putting electricity on the grid in this very complex technology. And I'd really like it to happen a lot faster than it is. But at the moment, all we can imagine is sometime in the 2030s.
Postaje prilično skupo raditi ovo istraživanje. Ispostavlja se kako ne možete stvarati fuziju na stolu unatoč svim besmislicama o hladnoj fuziji. Točno? Ne možete. Morate je stvoriti u jako velikom uređaju. Više od polovice svjetskog pučanstva je uključeno u izgradnju ovog uređaja u južnoj Francuskoj. Što je lijepo mjesto za eksperiment. Sedam nacija je uključeno u ovu izgradnju. Stajat će nas 10 milijardi. I stvorit ćemo pola gigawata fuzijske energije. Ali to još nije struja. Moramo doći do toga. Moramo doći do elektrana. Moramo početi stavljati struju u mrežu po ovoj vrlo kompleksnoj tehnologiji. I stvarno bih htio da se to dogodi puno prije nego što se događa. Ali u ovom trenutku, to jedino možemo zamisliti negdje u 2030-ima.
I wish this were different. We really need it now. We're going to have a problem with power in the next five years in this country. So 2030 looks like an infinity away. But we can't abandon it now; we have to push forward, get fusion to happen. I wish we had more money, I wish we had more resources. But this is what we're aiming at, sometime in the 2030s -- real electric power from fusion. Thank you very much. (Applause)
Volio bih da je drugačije. Stvarno je trebamo sada. Imat ćemo problema sa strujom u idućih pet godina u ovoj zemlji. Stoga se 2030. doima beskonačno daleko. Ali ne možemo je napustiti sada; moramo gurati naprijed, učiniti da se stvori fuzija. Volio bih da imamo više novaca, volio bih da imamo više resursa. Ali to je ono na što ciljamo, negdje u 2030-ima - stvarna električna snaga iz fuzije. Hvala vam puno. (Pljesak)