Good afternoon, I'm proud to be here at TEDxKrakow. I'll try to speak a little bit today about a phenomenon which can, and actually is changing the world, and whose name is people power. I'll start with an anecdote, or for those of you who are Monty Python lovers, a Monty Python type of sketch. Here it is.
Dobar dan, drago mi je što sam ovde na TEDxKrakow gde ću danas malo govoriti o fenomenu koji može da promeni svet, a to i čini, a koji se naziva moć naroda. Počeću jednom anegdotom ili za one koji su ljubitelji Monti Pajtona, jednim montipajtonovskim skečom. Evo ga. Petnaesti decembar 2010.
It is December 15, 2010. Somebody gives you a bet: you will look at a crystal ball, and you will see the future; the future will be accurate. But you need to share it with the world. OK, curiosity killed the cat, you take the bet, you look at the crystal ball. One hour later, you're sitting in a building of the national TV, in a top show, and you tell the story. Before the end of 2011, Ben Ali, and Mubarak, and Gaddafi would be down, and prosecuted. Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria would be either challenged, or already on their knees. Osama bin Laden would be dead, and Ratko Mladic would be in the Hague.
Neko vam ponudi opkladu: pogledaćete u kristalnu kuglu i videćete budućnost; ona će biti tačna. Ali morate je podeliti sa svetom. Ok? Mnogo ste radoznali, prihvatate opkladu, gledate u kristalnu kuglu. Sat vremena kasnije, sedite u zgradi nacionalne TV u gledanoj emisiji i pričate tu priču: "Pre kraja 2011., Ben Ali i Mubarak i Gadafi će pasti i biće im suđeno. Saleh iz Jemena i Asad iz Sirije biće izazvani ili već poraženi. Osama bin Laden biće mrtav, a Ratko Mladić biće u Hagu."
Now, the anchor watches you with a strange gaze on his face. And then, on top of it you add: "And thousands of young people from Athens, Madrid and New York will demonstrate for social justice, claiming they are inspired by Arabs."
Voditelj vas gleda sa čudnim izrazom lica. I onda povrh svega, dodajete: "...i hiljade mladih iz Atine, Madrida i Njujorka protestovaće za socijalnu pravdu, tvrdeći da su ih inspirisali Arapi."
Next thing you know, two guys in white appear, they give you the strange t-shirt, take you to the nearest mental institution. So I would like to speak a little bit about the phenomenon which is behind what already seems to be a very bad year for bad guys. And this phenomenon is called people power.
Sledeće što se dešava je da dolaze dvojica u belom, daju vam neku čudnu majicu i odvode vas u najbližu duševnu bolnicu. Voleo bih da govorim o fenomenu koji je u pozadini onoga što već izgleda kao veoma loša godina za loše momke, a taj fenomen se zove moć naroda.
Well, people power has been there for a while. It helped Gandhi kick the Brits from India, it helped Martin Luther King win his historic racial struggle. It helped a local, Lech Walesa, to kick out one million Soviet troops from Poland, and in beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.
Moć naroda postoji već duže vreme. Pomogla je Gandiju da istera Britance iz Indije, pomogla je Martinu Luteru Kingu u istorijskoj borbi protiv rasizma. Pomogla je lokalnom političaru, Lehu Valesi da istera milion sovjetskih vojnika iz Poljske i započne kraj Sovjetskog Saveza koji smo poznavali.
So what's new in it? What seems to be very new, which is the idea I would like to share with you today, is that there is a set of rules and skills which can be learned and taught in order to perform successful nonviolent struggle. If this is true, we can help these movements.
Dakle šta je tu novo? Ono što je izgleda novo, a tu ideju ću podeliti sa vama danas, je to da postoje određena pravila i veštine koje se mogu učiti i podučavati kako bi se izvela uspešna nenasilna borba. Ako je to istinito, možemo pomoći tim pokretima.
Well, the first one - analytic skills. I'll try where it all started in the Middle East. And for so many years, we were living with a completely wrong perception of the Middle East. It was looking like the frozen region. Literally a refrigerator. And there were only two types of meal there. Steak, which stands for a Mubarak-Ben Ali type of military police dictatorship, or a potato, which stands for a Tehran type of theocracies. And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened, and millions of young, mainly secular people stepped out to do the change. Guess what - they didn't watch the demographics. What is the average age of an Egyptian? 24. How long was Mubarak in power? 31. So, this system was just obsolete, they expired. And young people of the Arab world have awakened one morning, and understood that power lies in their hands. The rest is the year in front of us. And guess what? The same Generation Y, with their rules, with their tools, with their games, and with their language, which sounds a little bit strange to me. I'm 38 now. And can you look at the age of the people on the streets of Europe? It seems that Generation Y is coming.
Prva veština je analitička. Pokušaću sa Bliskim istokom, mestom na kom je sve počelo. Toliko mnogo godina smo živeli sa potpuno pogrešnim shvatanjem Bliskog istoka. Izgledao je kao zamrznuti region. Bukvalno kao frižider. U njemu su bile samo dve vrste jela: odrezak koji predstavlja vojno-policijski diktatorski režim Ben Alija i Mubaraka ili krompir, koji predstavlja teokratiju teheranskog tipa. Svi su se začudili kada se frižider otvorio i milioni mladih, uglavnom sekularnih ljudi su izašli da pokrenu promenu. Pogađajte - nisu gledali demografske podatke. Koliko prosečni Egipćanin ima godina? 24. Koliko dugo je Mubarak vladao? 31 godinu. Dakle, taj sistem je bio suvišan, istekao mu je rok. Mladi ljudi širom sveta su se probudili jednog jutra i shvatili da moć leži u njihovim rukama. Ostalo je u godini koja je pred nama. Pogađajte: ista generacija Y, sa svojim pravilima, alatima, svojim igrama i svojim jezikom, koji meni zvuči pomalo čudno, ja imam 38 godina... Pogledajte godine ljudi na ulicama Evrope. Izgleda da generacija Y dolazi. Daću vam još jedan primer.
Now, let me set another example. I'm meeting different people throughout the world, and they are, you know, academics, and professors, and doctors, and they will always talk conditions. They will say: "People power will work only if the regime is not too oppressive." They will say: "People power will work, if the annual income of the country is between X and Z." They will say: "People power will work only if there is a foreign pressure." They will say: "People power will work only if there is no oil." And, I mean, there is a set of conditions. Well, the news here is that your skills during the conflict seem to be more important than the conditions. Namely, the skills of unity, planning, and maintaining nonviolent discipline.
Širom sveta srećem različite ljude, to su akademici, profesori, lekari i uvek govore o uslovima. Kažu: "Moć naroda će uspeti, samo ako režim nije previše opresivan." Reći će: "Moć naroda uspeva ako je godišnji prihod zemlje između X i Y." Reći će: "Moć naroda će uspeti samo ako postoji strani pritisak." Reći će: "Moć naroda će uspeti samo ako nema nafte." Mislim, postoji skup uslova. Pa, novost je da su vaše veštine tokom konflikta izgleda važnije od tih uslova. To su veštine ujedinjenja, planiranja, nenasilnog održavanja discipline.
Let me give you an example. I come from a country called Serbia. It took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders, with their big egos, behind one single candidate against the Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic. Guess what? That was the day of his defeat. You look at the Egyptians, they fight on Tahrir Square, they get rid of their individual symbols, they appear on the street only with the flag of Egypt. I will give you a counter-example. You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko, you all know the outcome. So unity is a big thing. And this can be achieved. Same with planning. Somebody has lied to you about the successful and spontaneous nonviolent revolution. That thing doesn't exist in the world. Whenever you see young people in front of the row trying to fraternize with the police or military, somebody was thinking about it before.
Daću vam jedan primer. Ja dolazim iz zemlje koja se zove Srbija. Bilo je potrebno deset godina da se 18 opozicionih lidera sa velikim egom, ujedini iza jednog jedinog kandidata protiv balkanskog diktatora Slobodana Miloševića. Pogađate? To je bio dan njegovog poraza. Pogledajte Egipćane, bore se na trgu Tahrir, uklone svoje lične simbole i pojave se na ulici samo sa egipatskom zastavom. Daću vam jedan suprotan primer. Videli ste da je Lukašenko imao devet protiv-kandidata. Svi znate ishod. Dakle, jedinstvo je velika stvar. A ono može biti postignuto. Isto važi i za planiranje. Neko vas je slagao u vezi sa uspešnom i spontanom nenasilnom revolucijom. Tako nešto u svetu ne postoji. Kada god vidite mlade ljude kako na čelu reda pokušavaju da se združe sa milicijom ili vojskom, neko je već ranije mislio na to.
Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline. And this is probably the game-changer. If you maintain nonviolent discipline, you'll exclusively win. You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march, one idiot or agent-provocateur throwing a stone. Guess what takes all the cameras. That one guy. One single act of violence can literally destroy your movement.
Na kraju, nenasilna disciplina, a to je ono što verovatno menja stvari. Ako održite nenasilnu disciplinu, uvek ćete pobediti. Imate 100 000 ljudi u nenasilnoj šetnji, a jedna budala ili provokator baci kamen. Šta privlači pažnju kamera? Taj jedan lik. Jedan jedini čin nasilja bukvalno može uništiti vaš pokret.
Now, let me move to another place. It's the selection of strategies and tactics. There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow. First, you start small. Second, you pick the battles you can win. It's only 200 of us in this room. We won't call for the march of a million. But what if we organized the spraying of graffiti throughout the night, all over Krakow. The city will know. So, we pick tactics accommodated to the event, especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion. They're very useful in violent oppression. We are actually witnessing the picture of one of the best tactics ever used. It was on Tahrir square, where the international community was constantly frightened that, you know, the Islamists will overtake the revolution. What they organized -- Christians protecting Muslims where they are praying, a Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims, the world has just changed the picture, but somebody was thinking about this previously. So there are so many things you can do instead of getting into one place, shouting, and you know, showing off in front of the security forces.
Dozvolite mi da pređem dalje. To je izbor strategija i taktika. U nenasilnoj borbi postoje neka pravila koja možete pratiti. Prvo, počnite s nečim malim. Drugo, odaberite bitke koje možete da dobijete. Ovde nas ima samo 200. Nećemo krenuti u milionsku šetnju. Ali šta ako bismo organizovali pisanje grafita tokom noći po celom Krakovu? Grad će znati. Dakle, biramo taktiku u skladu sa događajem, posebno ono što nazivamo malom taktikom raspršivanja. Veoma je korisna u nasilnom ugnjetavanju. Zapravo smo svedoci slike jedne od najboljih taktika. To je bilo na trgu Tahrir, gde je međunarodna zajednica stalno zastrašivana da će islamisti preuzeti revoluciju. Ono što su organizovali... Hrišćani štite muslimane pri njihovim molitvama, hiljade muslimana pozdravlja koptsko venčanje. Svet je promenio sliku, ali neko je ranije mislio o tome. Postoje mnoge stvari koje možete uraditi umesto da odete na jedno mesto i vičete i pravite se važni pred obezbeđenjem.
Now, there is also another very important dynamic. And this is a dynamic that analysts normally don't see. This is the dynamic between fear and apathy on the one side, and enthusiasm and humor on another side. So, it works like in a video game. You have the fear high, you have status quo. You have the enthusiasm higher, you see the fear is starting to melt. Day two, you see people running towards the police instead of from the police, in Egypt. You can tell that something is happening there.
Postoji još jedan važan odnos. Njega analitičari uglavnom ne vide. To je odnos između straha i apatije s jedne strane i entuzijazma i humora sa druge. To funkcioniše kao u video igri. Ako je strah na visokom nivou, imate status kvo. Ako entuzijazam raste, vidite kako strah počinje da se topi. Drugog dana vidite kako ljudi u Egiptu trče ka policiji umesto od nje. Vidite da se nešto tu dešava. A onda nastupa humor. Humor je veoma moćan
And then, it's about the humor. Humor is such a powerful game-changer, and of course, it was very big in Poland. You know, we were just a small group of crazy students in Serbia when we made this big skit. We put the big petrol barrel with a portrait of Mr. President on it, in the middle of the Main Street. There was a hole in the top. So you could literally come, put a coin in, get a baseball bat, and hit his face. Sounds loud. And within minutes, we were sitting in a nearby café having coffee, and there was a queue of people waiting to do this lovely thing. Well, that's just the beginning of the show. The real show starts when the police appears.
činilac promene i naravno, veoma uticajan i u Poljskoj. Znate, bili smo mala grupa ludih studenata u Srbiji, kada smo napravili veliku parodiju. Stavili smo veliko bure od goriva sa slikom Gospodina Predsednika nasred glavne ulice. Na vrhu je bila rupa. Mogli ste bukvalno da dođete, ubacite novčić, uzmete bezbol palicu i udarite njegovo lice. Stvara buku. U roku od nekoliko minuta, sedeli smo u obližnjem kafiću i pili kafu, a ljudi su stajali u redu, čekajući da urade ovu divnu stvar. To je samo početak predstave. Prava predstava počinje sa dolaskom policije.
(Laughter)
Šta će uraditi? Uhapsiti nas? Nisu mogli da nas nađu.
"What will they do?" Arrest us? We were nowhere to be seen. We were like three blocks away, observing it from our espresso bar. Arrest the shoppers, with kids? Doesn't make sense. Of course, you could bet, they did the most stupid thing. They arrested the barrel. And now, the picture of the smashed face on the barrel, with the policemen dragging it to the police car, that was the best day for newspaper photographers that they will ever have.
Posmatrali smo sve iz kafića tri bloka dalje. Da uhapse kupce sa decom? To nema smisla. Naravno, možete se kladiti, uradili su najgluplju stvar: uhapsili su bure. I sada, slika izubijanog lica na buretu koje policajci vuku u auto, bila je za fotoreportere nešto najbolje što su ikada dobili. Mislim, to su stvari koje možete uraditi.
So, I mean, these are the things you can do. And you can always use humor. There is also one big thing about humor, it really hurts. Because these guys really are taking themselves too seriously. When you start to mock them, it hurts.
I uvek možete koristiti humor. Ima još jedna velika stvar u vezi sa humorom: on zaista povređuje. Jer ovi momci stvarno sebe shvataju preozbiljno. Kad počnete da im se rugate, to boli.
Now, everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet, and it is also a very useful skill. But don't rush to label things like "a Facebook Revolution," "Twitter Revolution." Don't mix the tools with the substance. It is true that the Internet and the new media are very useful in making things faster and cheaper. They also make it a bit safer for the participants, because they give partial anonymity.
Sada svi govore o Njegovom Visočanstvu, Internetu, koji je takođe veoma korisna veština. Ali nemojte žurno obeležavati stvari kao "Fejsbuk revolucija", "Tviter revolucija." Ne mešajte suštinu i formu. Istina je da su internet i novi mediji veoma korisni da se stvari urade brže i jeftinije. Takođe čine stvari bezbednijima za učesnike, jer obezbeđuju delimičnu anonimnost.
We're watching the great example of something else the Internet can do. It can put the price tag of state-sponsored violence over a nonviolent protester. This is the famous group "We are all Khaled Said," made by Wael Ghonim in Egypt, and his friend. This is the mutilated face of the guy who was beaten by the police. This is how he became known to the public, and this is what probably became the straw that broke the camel's back.
Vidimo odličan primer još nečega što internet može da uradi. Može da stavi cenu državno sponzorisanog nasilja nad nenasilnim protestantom. Ovo je čuvena grupa "Svi smo mi Kaled Said" koju su osnovali Vael Gonim i njegov prijatelj u Egiptu. Ovo je unakaženo lice momka kog je prebila policija. Ovako je postao poznat u javnosti i to je verovatno bila kap koja je prelila čašu.
But here is also the bad news. The nonviolent struggle is won in the real world, in the streets. You will never change your society towards democracy, or, you know, the economy, if you sit down and click. There are risks to be taken, and there are living people who are winning the struggle.
Ali postoje i loše vesti. Nenasilna borba se dobija na ulicama, u realnom svetu. Nikada nećete uvesti svoje društvo u demokratiju i ekonomiju, ako sedite i klikćete. Postoje rizici koje treba preuzeti i živi ljudi koji se bore.
Well, the million-dollar question. What will happen in the Arab world? And though young people from the Arab world were pretty successful in bringing down three dictators, shaking the region, kind of persuading the clever kings from Jordan and Morocco to do substantial reforms, it is yet to be seen what will be the outcome. Whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition, or this will end in bloody ethnic and religious conflicts, whether the Syrians will maintain nonviolent discipline, faced with a brutal daily violence which kills thousands already, or they will slip into violent struggle and make ugly civil war. Will these revolutions be pushed through the transitions and democracy or be overtaken by the military or extremists of all kinds? We cannot tell. The same works for the Western sector, where you can see all these excited young people protesting around the world, occupying this, occupying that. Are they going to become the world wave? Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm, and their strategy to find what they really want and push for the reform, or will they just stay complaining about the endless list of the things they hate? This is the difference between the two paths.
Pitanje za milion dolara: šta će se desiti u arapskom svetu? Iako su mladi ljudi iz arapskog sveta bili prilično uspešni u svrgavanju tri diktatora, prodrmavanju regiona i ubeđivanju pametnih kraljeva Jordana i Maroka da izvrše korenite reforme, ostaje da se vidi šta će biti rezultat. Da li će Egipćani i Tunižani uspešno proći tranziciju ili će se ovo završiti krvavim etničkim i religijskim sukobom, da li će u Siriji opstati nenasilna disciplina, suočena sa brutalnim svakodnevnim nasiljem koje je već ubilo hiljade ili će skliznuti u nasilnu borbu i započeti ružan građanski rat? Da li će se ove revolucije probiti kroz tranziciju u demokratiju ili će ih preuzeti vojska i razne ekstremističke grupe? To ne možemo znati. Isto važi za Zapadni deo sveta, gde možete videti sve te uzbuđene mlade ljude kako protestuju širom sveta, okupirajući ovo i ono. Da li će to zahvatiti čitav svet? Da li će oni naći svoje veštine, entuzijazam i strategiju da bi našli ono što žele i pokrenuli reformu ili će ostati na tome da se žale na beskonačnu listu stvari koje mrze? U tome je razlika između ta dva puta.
Now, what do the statistics have? My friend Maria Stephan's book talks a lot about violent and nonviolent struggle, and there are some shocking data. If you look at the last 35 years and different social transitions, from dictatorship to democracy, you will see that, out of 67 different cases, in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent struggle which was the key power. This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon, this is one more reason to look at Generation Y. Enough for me to give them credit, and hope that they will find their skills and their courage to use nonviolent struggle and thus fix at least a part of the mess our generation is making in this world.
Ali, šta kaže statistika? Knjiga moje prijateljice, Marije Stefan, mnogo govori o nasilnoj i nenasilnoj borbi i iznosi neke šokantne podatke. Ako pogledate razne društvene promene u poslednjih 35 godina, od diktature do demokratije, videćete da, od 67 različitih slučajeva, u 50 je nenasilna borba bila ta koja je bila ključna. To je još jedan od razloga da posmatramo taj fenomen, još jedan od razloga da posmatramo Y generaciju. Meni je to dovolljno da im verujem i da se nadam da će naći veštine i hrabrosti da koriste nenasilnu borbu i tako poprave makar deo haosa koji naša generacija pravi u ovom svetu.
Thank you.
Hvala vam. (Aplauz)
(Applause)