How much do you need to know about a person before you'd feel comfortable making a loan?
你要多瞭解一個人, 才能夠放心地借他錢?
Suppose you wanted to lend 1,000 dollars to the person sitting two rows behind you. What would you need to know about that person before you'd feel comfortable?
假如要你出借 1,000 美金 給坐你後兩排的人。 你需要先知道哪些資訊, 才能夠放心呢?
My mom came to the US from India in her late thirties. She's a doctor in Brooklyn, and she often lets friends and neighbors come to see her for health services, whether they can pay right away or not. I remember running into her patients with her at the grocery store or on the sidewalk, and sometimes they would come and pay her right on the spot for previous appointments. She would thank them, and ask them about their families and their health. She gave them credit because she trusted them.
我的母親在快四十歲時 從印度來到美國。 她是布魯克林的醫生。 她經常為朋友、 街坊鄰居提供健康服務, 無論他們是否有能力當場付錢。 記得曾和她在路上 遇到病人──在雜貨店 或人行道上── 有時候他們會當場掏錢, 付上次看病的費用。 她會說謝謝, 然後聊聊對方的家庭和健康。 她讓他們賒帳,因為她信任他們。
Most of us are like my mom. We would give credit to someone we know or that we live next to. But most of us are probably not going to lend to a stranger unless we know a little something about them.
多數人就跟我母親一樣。 我們會借錢給熟識的人, 或身邊的人。 但大部分的人大概 不會借錢給陌生人, 除非我們某種程度地瞭解對方。
Banks, credit card companies and other financial institutions don't know us on a personal level, but they do have a way of trusting us, and that's through our credit scores. Our credit scores have been created through an aggregation and analysis of our public consumer credit data. And because of them, we have pretty much easy access to all of the goods and services that we need, from getting electricity to buying a home, or taking a risk and starting a business.
銀行、信用卡公司和其他金融機構 並不認識我們個人, 但他們有種信任機制, 便是透過我們的信用積分。 信用積分的建立, 是透過彙整與分析公開消費資訊所得到的結果。 因為有它,我們有了方便的管道 獲得各式各樣的商品和服務, 從獲取電力到購買房子, 或是冒點風險創立事業。
But ... there are 2.5 billion people around the world that don't have a credit score. That's a third of the world's population. They don't have a score because there are no formal public records on them -- no bank accounts, no credit histories and no social security numbers. And because they don't have a score, they don't have access to the credit or financial products that can improve their lives. They are not trusted.
然而, 全球約有 25 億人 沒有信用積分。 這佔了世界三分之一的人口。 他們沒有積分, 因為缺乏正式的公開紀錄── 沒有銀行帳戶、 沒有信用記錄、 沒有社會保險號碼。 因為他們沒有積分, 他們沒機會接觸信用或金融商品, 也無從以此改善生活。 他們不被信任。
So we wanted to find a way to build trust and to open up financial access for these 2.5 billion. So we created a mobile application that builds credit scores for them using mobile data. There are currently over one billion smartphones in emerging markets. And people are using them the same way that we do. They're texting their friends, they're looking up directions, they're browsing the Internet and they're even making financial transactions.
所以我們想要找到建立信任的方法, 對這25億人打開金融的大門。 我們做了一個手機應用程式, 利用手機資料 來創造他們的信用積分。 目前在新興市場, 有超過 10 億支智慧型手機。 使用方式和我們沒什麼不同。 他們傳訊給朋友、查地圖、 瀏覽網頁, 甚至用手機進行交易。
Over time, this data is getting captured on our phones, and it provides a really rich picture of a person's life. Our customers give us access to this data and we capture it through our mobile application. It helps us understand the creditworthiness of people like Jenipher, a small-business owner in Nairobi, Kenya. Jenipher is 65 years old, and for decades has been running a food stall in the central business district. She has three sons who she put through vocational school, and she's also the leader of her local chama, or savings group.
這些資料會不斷地 被擷取、紀錄下來, 並活靈活現地描繪出 一個人生活的樣貌。 客戶授權我們取用這些資料, 讓我們用手機程式記錄下來。 它幫助我們瞭解一個人的信譽。 例如:珍妮佛── 一位在肯亞奈洛比的小企業主。 珍妮佛 65 歲,幾十年來 都經營著一家食物攤, 就位於中心商業區。 她有三個讀了職校的兒子, 她同時也領導著當地的 地區性儲蓄團體。
Jenipher's food stall does well. She makes just enough every day to cover her expenses. But she's not financially secure. Any emergency could force her into debt. And she has no discretionary income to improve her family's way of living, for emergencies, or for investing into growing her business. If Jenipher wants credit, her options are limited. She could get a microloan, but she'd have to form a group that could help vouch for her credibility. And even then, the loan sizes would be way too small to really have an impact on her business, averaging around 150 dollars. Loan sharks are always an option, but with interest rates that are well above 300 percent, they're financially risky. And because Jenipher doesn't have collateral or a credit history, she can't walk into a bank and ask for a business loan.
珍妮佛的食物攤經營得不錯。 她每天的收入恰好能應付支出。 但她經濟上並不安全。 突發事件可能把她打入負債。 而她沒有多餘的收入, 來改善家裡的生活、 應付突發狀況, 或是投資、擴展自己的事業。 若珍妮佛想要積分,她沒什麼選擇。 她可以申請小額貸款, 但她必須先找一群人 來做她的保證人。 即便成功,貸款金額還是太低, 無法對事業有實質上的幫助── 放款金額平均 150 美金。 地下錢莊當然是個選擇, 但遠超過 300% 的利率, 風險實在太高了。 且因為珍妮佛沒有 抵押品或信用記錄, 她無法向銀行申請企業貸款。
But one day, Jenipher's son convinced her to download our application and apply for a loan. Jenipher answered a few questions on her phone and she gave us access to a few key data points on her device.
但某天, 珍妮佛的兒子說服她 下載了我們的應用程式 並申請貸款。 珍妮佛在手機上回答了幾個問題, 然後授權我們取用 一些手機上的關鍵資料。
And here's what we saw. So, bad news first. Jenipher had a low savings balance and no previous loan history. These are factors that would have thrown up a red flag to a traditional bank. But there were other points in her history that showed us a much richer picture of her potential. So for one, we saw that she made regular phone calls to her family in Uganda. Well, it turns out that the data shows a four percent increase in repayment among people who consistently communicate with a few close contacts. We could also see that though she traveled around a lot throughout the day, she actually had pretty regular travel patterns, and she was either at home or at her food stall. And the data shows a six percent increase in repayment among customers who are consistent with where they spend most of their time.
這是我們看到的。 先說壞消息。 珍妮佛存款偏低, 沒有過往的借貸紀錄。 這些因素 在傳統銀行就很不樂觀。 但她紀錄中的其他部分, 顯現出了她的潛力。 首先, 她很有規律地打電話 給在烏干達的家人。 而統計資料顯示, 還款機率將有 4% 的提升── 如果這個人跟親近的人 有持續性的聯絡。 我們還發現, 儘管她整天會在各處奔走, 她的行動模式其實蠻固定的, 不是在家就是在她的攤位。 資料顯示, 還款機率將有 6% 的提升── 如果這個人 把大部分時間花在固定地方。
We could also see that she communicated a lot with many different people throughout the day and that she had a strong support network. Our data shows that people who communicate with more than 58 different contacts tend to be more likely to be good borrowers. In Jenipher's case, she communicated with 89 different individuals, which showed a nine percent increase in her repayment.
我們也能看到她的互動很多, 在生活中和不同的人接觸, 擁有強健的社群支持。 資料顯示, 和超過 58 人有互動的人, 較有可能是好的借款人。 珍妮佛的案例中, 她和 89 人有過互動, 還款機率因此有 9% 的提升。
These are just some of the thousands of different data points that we look at to understand a person's creditworthiness. And after analyzing all of these different data points, we took the first risk and gave Jenipher a loan. This is data that would not be found on a paper trail or in any formal financial record. But it proves trust. By looking beyond income, we can see that people in emerging markets that may seem risky and unpredictable on the surface are actually willing and have the capacity to repay.
這只是資料滄海中之一粟。 我們用大量的資料 深入瞭解一個人的信譽。 分析完所有的資料後, 我們跨出冒險的第一步, 給了珍妮佛一筆貸款。 這樣的資訊無法在書面上, 或是金融紀錄裡面找到。 但它構築出信任。 將目光放遠不侷限於收入, 我們看見新興市場中的人們, 他們表面上看起來 放款風險高、難以預測, 但事實上具有還款意願及能力。
Our credit scores have helped us deliver over 200,000 loans in Kenya in just the past year. And our repayment rates are above 90 percent -- which, by the way, is in line with traditional bank repayment rates.
我們的信用積分,已幫我們 在肯亞釋放出 200,000 份貸款── 僅僅在去年。 我們的還款率超過了 90%── 和傳統銀行的還款率並駕齊驅。
With something as simple as a credit score, we're giving people the power to build their own futures. Our customers have used their loans for family expenses, emergencies, travel and for investing back into growing their businesses. They're now building better economies and communities where more people can succeed.
信用積分看似微不足道, 卻賦予人們建構自己未來的力量。 我們的客戶把這些貸款 拿來支付家庭開銷、 突發狀況、旅遊, 以及投資發展他們的事業。 他們正打造更好的經濟及社區, 讓更多的人能夠成功。
Over the past two years of using our product, Jenipher has increased her savings by 60 percent. She's also started two additional food stalls and is now making plans for her own restaurant. She's applying for a small-business loan from a commercial bank, because she now has the credit history to prove she deserves it.
採用我們產品的過去兩年, 珍妮佛的存款增加了 60%。 她還開了另外兩個食物攤, 並打算開自己的餐廳。 她正向商業銀行申請小型企業貸款, 因為如今她已經有 信用記錄證明她具備資格。
I saw Jenipher in Nairobi just last week, and she told me how excited she was to get started. She said, "Only my son believed I could do this. I didn't think this was for me." She's lived her whole life believing that there was a part of the world that was closed off to her.
上週我在奈洛比見到了珍妮佛, 她向我表達她當初的興奮之情。 她說: 「只有我兒子相信我能做到。 我不敢相信這一切屬於我。」 她活著的大半生, 都認為某部分的世界並不屬於她。
Our job now is to open the world to Jenipher and the billions like her that deserve to be trusted.
我們的使命便是向珍妮佛, 還有許許多多值得相信的人, 敞開世界的大門。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)