Bryn Freedman: You're a guy whose company funds these AI programs and invests. So why should we trust you to not have a bias and tell us something really useful for the rest of us about the future of work?
BF:你的公司資助這些 人工智慧專案和投資。 所以我們如何相信你不會帶著偏見 告訴我們這些很受用的 有關未來的工作前景?
Roy Bahat: Yes, I am. And when you wake up in the morning and you read the newspaper and it says, "The robots are coming, they may take all our jobs," as a start-up investor focused on the future of work, our fund was the first one to say artificial intelligence should be a focus for us.
RB:是的,我是。 當你早晨醒來看到新聞說: 「機器人即將來臨, 可能會取代我們所有人的工作,」 身為一位專注在未來工作的 初創企業投資人, 我們的基金是最先 聚焦在人工智慧上的。
So I woke up one morning and read that and said, "Oh, my gosh, they're talking about me. That's me who's doing that." And then I thought: wait a minute. If things continue, then maybe not only will the start-ups in which we invest struggle because there won't be people to have jobs to pay for the things that they make and buy them, but our economy and society might struggle, too.
所以我某天醒來看到那則新聞便說: 「哦,我的天,他們說的是我。 那是我正在做的事。」 然後我想:等等。 如果事情繼續發展的話, 或許不只我們投資的 初創公司會陷入危機, 因為就不會有人有工作 來付錢買機器人做的東西, 我們的經濟和社會可能也會岌岌可危。
And look, I should be the guy who sits here and tells you, "Everything is going to be fine. It's all going to work out great. Hey, when they introduced the ATM machine, years later, there's more tellers in banks." It's true. And yet, when I looked at it, I thought, "This is going to accelerate. And if it does accelerate, there's a chance the center doesn't hold." But I figured somebody must know the answer to this; there are so many ideas out there. And I read all the books, and I went to the conferences, and at one point, we counted more than 100 efforts to study the future of work. And it was a frustrating experience, because I'd hear the same back-and-forth over and over again: "The robots are coming!" And then somebody else would say, "Oh, don't worry about that, they've always said that and it turns out OK." Then somebody else would say, "Well, it's really about the meaning of your job, anyway." And then everybody would shrug and go off and have a drink. And it felt like there was this Kabuki theater of this discussion, where nobody was talking to each other.
而我應該是坐在這裡告訴你說: 「一切都不會有問題。 所以的問題都會迎刃而解。 嘿,當引進自動櫃員機時, 幾年過後,銀行的櫃員比以前多。」 這是真的。 然而,當我看著它,我心想, 「這會加速發展。 一旦它加速發展了, 中心可能就無法掌控住。」 但我認為有人必定知道 這個問題的答案; 許多人有很棒的點子。 我經常看書,也常去參加會議, 有一次我們數算了,有超過 100 個有關未來工作的研究。 這個經驗讓人覺得很挫敗, 因為我來回一遍又一遍地 聽到同樣的話: 「機器人即將來臨!」 然後,其他人說: 「哦,不用擔心,他們 一直都這麼說,結果也都沒事。」 然後,另外一個人說, 「嗯,其實你工作 賦予你的意義才重要。」 然後每個人就聳聳肩離開喝酒去了。 這些話感覺就像是 在歌舞伎劇院裡的討論, 每個人各說各話,沒有交流。
And many of the people that I knew and worked with in the technology world were not speaking to policy makers; the policy makers were not speaking to them. And so we partnered with a nonpartisan think tank NGO called New America to study this issue. And we brought together a group of people, including an AI czar at a technology company and a video game designer and a heartland conservative and a Wall Street investor and a socialist magazine editor -- literally, all in the same room; it was occasionally awkward -- to try to figure out what is it that will happen here.
很多我認識的在科技領域工作的人, 他們不與政策制定者對話; 政策制定者也不和這些人討論。 所以我們與名為「新美國」的 無黨派非政府組織的智庫合作, 來研究這個議題。 我們聚集了一群人, 包括一家科技公司的人工智慧巨擘, 一位電子遊戲設計師, 一位傳統的保守者, 一位華爾街投資人, 和社會主義雜誌的編輯—— 把他們都放在同一個房間裡; 偶爾會很尷尬—— 試圖找出未來會如何變化。
The question we asked was simple. It was: What is the effect of technology on work going to be? And we looked out 10 to 20 years, because we wanted to look out far enough that there could be real change, but soon enough that we weren't talking about teleportation or anything like that. And we recognized -- and I think every year we're reminded of this in the world -- that predicting what's going to happen is hard. So instead of predicting, there are other things you can do. You can try to imagine alternate possible futures, which is what we did. We did a scenario-planning exercise, and we imagined cases where no job is safe. We imagined cases where every job is safe. And we imagined every distinct possibility we could.
我們要問的問題很簡單。 那就是:科技對工作的影響 將會是什麼? 我們探討 10 到 20 年後的情形, 因為我們要看到在夠遠的未來 可能會發生的真正變化, 但很快地我們就不探討 心靈傳輸或類似的事情。 我們知道—— 我想身處在這世界上 每年都會被提醒到—— 預測未來之事是很困難的。 不去預測未來, 你可以做其他事情。 你可以試著去想像其他可能的未來, 這就是我們所做的。 我們做了一個情景規劃練習。 我們想像沒有一個工作是安全的情況。 我們想像每個工作都是安全的情況。 我們想像所有不同的可能性。
And the result, which really surprised us, was when you think through those futures and you think what should we do, the answers about what we should do actually turn out to be the same, no matter what happens. And the irony of looking out 10 to 20 years into the future is, you realize that the things we want to act on are actually already happening right now. The automation is right now, the future is right now.
結果是,出乎我們的意料之外, 當你透徹地思考這些未來, 以及你認為我們該怎麼做, 結果我們應該做什麼的答案 都是一樣的, 無論發生了什麼。 諷刺的是展望 10 到 20 年後的未來, 你發現我們想要採取的行動 其實現在已經在發生了。 現在已經在自動化, 未來就在眼前。
BF: So what does that mean, and what does that tell us? If the future is now, what is it that we should be doing, and what should we be thinking about?
BF:那是什麼意思, 那告訴了我們什麼? 如果現在是未來, 我們應該做什麼, 以及我們應該考慮什麼呢?
RB: We have to understand the problem first. And so the data are that as the economy becomes more productive and individual workers become more productive, their wages haven't risen. If you look at the proportion of prime working-age men, in the United States at least, who work now versus in 1960, we have three times as many men not working. And then you hear the stories.
RB:首先我們必須了解問題。 數據顯示的是 當經濟變得更具生產力, 每一位工作者變得更有效率, 但他們的工資沒有上漲。 如果你看一下主要工作男性的比例, 至少在美國, 與 1960 年代工作的人比較, 我們有三倍的男人沒在工作。 然後你會聽到他們的故事。
I sat down with a group of Walmart workers and said, "What do you think about this cashier, this futuristic self-checkout thing?" They said, "That's nice, but have you heard about the cash recycler? That's a machine that's being installed right now, and is eliminating two jobs at every Walmart right now." And so we just thought, "Geez. We don't understand the problem." And so we looked at the voices that were the ones that were excluded, which is all of the people affected by this change. And we decided to listen to them, sort of "automation and its discontents."
我與一群沃爾瑪的員工交談,我說: 你認為這個能讓你 自助結帳的機器如何? 他們說:「這很好, 但你有聽說過現金回收機嗎?」 那是現在正在安裝中的機器, 每一台可以取代兩個 在沃爾瑪賣場工作的人。」 所以我們只是想, 「天呀。我們沒有了解到問題。」 所以我們去找那些被排除在外的聲音, 那些人是受到這些變化影響的人。 我們決定去聽他們的心聲, 像是「自動化和它所造成的不滿。」
And I've spent the last couple of years doing that. I've been to Flint, Michigan, and Youngstown, Ohio, talking about entrepreneurs, trying to make it work in a very different environment from New York or San Francisco or London or Tokyo. I've been to prisons twice to talk to inmates about their jobs after they leave. I've sat down with truck drivers to ask them about the self-driving truck, with people who, in addition to their full-time job, care for an aging relative. And when you talk to people, there were two themes that came out loud and clear.
我過去幾年都在這麼做。 我去過密歇根州的弗林特, 和俄亥俄州的揚斯敦, 和企業家討論, 試圖讓它在極不同的環境 如紐約、舊金山 到倫敦、東京都能夠順利完成。 我去過監獄兩次, 和囚犯討論他們離開監獄後的工作。 我和卡車司機坐下來, 問他們對於自動駕駛卡車的看法, 我與一些在全職工作外 也照顧年老親人的人談話。 當你與人們談話後, 有兩個主題被搬上檯面且非常明確。
The first one was that people are less looking for more money or get out of the fear of the robot taking their job, and they just want something stable. They want something predictable. So if you survey people and ask them what they want out of work, for everybody who makes less than 150,000 dollars a year, they'll take a more stable and secure income, on average, over earning more money. And if you think about the fact that not only for all of the people across the earth who don't earn a living, but for those who do, the vast majority earn a different amount from month to month and have an instability, all of a sudden you realize, "Wait a minute. We have a real problem on our hands."
第一是人們較不追求更多的金錢, 或較不害怕機器人取代他們的工作, 他們只是希望比較穩定的工作。 他們想要可預測的東西。 所以,如果你調查詢問他們 想要在工作得到什麼, 每個年薪在 15 萬以下的人, 平均來說,他們會接受收入 比較穩定和安全的工作, 而不是收入更高的工作。 如果你考慮一下這個事實: 不僅是地球上所有沒有在工作的人, 而是那些在工作的人, 絕大多數人每月拿到不同的金額, 很不穩定, 你突然意識到, 「等一下。 我們手上有個真正的問題。」
And the second thing they say, which took us a longer time to understand, is they say they want dignity. And that concept of self-worth through work emerged again and again and again in our conversations.
他們說的第二件事, 我們花了比較長的時間才理解。 那就是說他們要有尊嚴。 而那個通過工作實現自我價值的概念 一次又一次地出現在我們的談話中。
BF: So, I certainly appreciate this answer. But you can't eat dignity, you can't clothe your children with self-esteem. So, what is that, how do you reconcile -- what does dignity mean, and what is the relationship between dignity and stability?
BF:謝謝你告訴我們這個答案。 但你不能靠尊嚴吃飯, 你不能用自尊心 買衣服給你的孩子穿。 那麼,那是什麼,你如何調和—— 尊嚴意味著什麼, 尊嚴和穩定之間的關係是什麼?
RB: You can't eat dignity. You need stability first. And the good news is, many of the conversations that are happening right now are about how we solve that. You know, I'm a proponent of studying guaranteed income, as one example, conversations about how health care gets provided and other benefits. Those conversations are happening, and we're at a time where we must figure that out. It is the crisis of our era.
RB:你不能靠尊嚴吃飯。 你首先需要穩定。 好消息是, 很多大家在談論的是 關於我們如何解決這個問題。 你知道,我是研究保證收入的支持者, 那是一個例子, 另外也有如有關如何提供 醫療保健和其他福利的討論。 這些討論都正在發生, 我們正處於必須解決 這些問題的關鍵時刻。 這是我們時代的危機。
And my point of view after talking to people is that we may do that, and it still might not be enough. Because what we need to do from the beginning is understand what is it about work that gives people dignity, so they can live the lives that they want to live. And so that concept of dignity is ... it's difficult to get your hands around, because when many people hear it -- especially, to be honest, rich people -- they hear "meaning." They hear "My work is important to me." And again, if you survey people and you ask them, "How important is it to you that your work be important to you?" only people who make 150,000 dollars a year or more say that it is important to them that their work be important.
在和許多人對話後,我的觀點是 即使我們那麼做, 可能還不夠。 因為我們從一開始就必須了解的是 什麼是能使人們得到尊嚴的工作, 讓他們可以過他們想過的日子。 所以尊嚴的概念就是…... 你很難了解清楚, 因為當很多人聽到它時—— 特別是,說實話,有錢人—— 他們聽到的是「意義。」 他們聽到「我的工作對我很重要。」 如果你做調查,你問他們, 「『你的工作對你來說很重要』 這一點對你有多重要?」 只有年薪在 15 萬美元以上的人說 「他們的工作很重要」 這點對他們來說很重要。
BF: Meaning, meaningful?
BF:意思是有意義的?
RB: Just defined as, "Is your work important to you?" Whatever somebody took that to mean. And yet, of course dignity is essential. We talked to truck drivers who said, "I saw my cousin drive, and I got on the open road and it was amazing. And I started making more money than people who went to college." Then they'd get to the end of their thought and say something like, "People need their fruits and vegetables in the morning, and I'm the guy who gets it to them."
RB:我們就是定義它為, 「你的工作對你很重要嗎?」 不管大家認為是什麼意思。 然而,尊嚴當然是必不可少的。 我們和卡車司機談話,他說: 「我曾看我的堂兄弟開卡車, 當我也開始開卡車時,覺得真棒。 我開始賺比上大學的人更多的錢。」 然後他們談到他們最終的想法,說: 「人們早上需要吃水果和蔬菜, 而我是那個運送 蔬菜水果給他們的人。」
We talked to somebody who, in addition to his job, was caring for his aunt. He was making plenty of money. At one point we just asked, "What is it about caring for your aunt? Can't you just pay somebody to do it?" He said, "My aunt doesn't want somebody we pay for. My aunt wants me." So there was this concept there of being needed.
我們和一位除了做他的正職外, 也兼照顧他阿姨的人訪談。 他的收入很高。 有一次我們就問他: 「你為什麼要照顧你的阿姨? 難道你不能花錢請別人去做嗎?」 他說:「我的阿姨不要我們請的人。 我的阿姨要我。」 那裡有「被需要」這個概念。
If you study the word "dignity," it's fascinating. It's one of the oldest words in the English language, from antiquity. And it has two meanings: one is self-worth, and the other is that something is suitable, it's fitting, meaning that you're part of something greater than yourself, and it connects to some broader whole. In other words, that you're needed.
如果你研究「尊嚴」這個詞, 它很令人著迷。 這是最古老的詞之一, 來自古代的英語。 它有兩個含義: 一個是自我價值, 另一個是感覺很合適、恰如其分, 意思是你屬於比自身 更偉大事物的一部分, 而它連接到更宏偉的整體。 換句話說,你是被需要的。
BF: So how do you answer this question, this concept that we don't pay teachers, and we don't pay eldercare workers, and we don't pay people who really care for people and are needed, enough?
BF:那你怎麼回答這個問題呢? 我們付給以下這些人太低的工資: 老師、老人照護員、 真的關心他人的人, 而且是被需要的人。
RB: Well, the good news is, people are finally asking the question. So as AI investors, we often get phone calls from foundations or CEOs and boardrooms saying, "What do we do about this?" And they used to be asking, "What do we do about introducing automation?" And now they're asking, "What do we do about self-worth?" And they know that the employees who work for them who have a spouse who cares for somebody, that dignity is essential to their ability to just do their job.
RB:嗯,好消息是, 人們終於提出了這個問題。 身為人工智慧的投資者, 我們經常接到 來自基金會或執行長 和董事會的電話,說: 「我們該怎麼做呢?」 他們以前問的是: 「我們該怎麼引入自動化呢?」 現在他們問: 「我們如何處理自我價值?」 他們知道他們的員工 誰有配偶要照顧某人, 他們知道尊嚴對於員工能夠勝任 他們的工作至關重要。
I think there's two kinds of answers: there's the money side of just making your life work. That's stability. You need to eat. And then you think about our culture more broadly, and you ask: Who do we make into heroes? And, you know, what I want is to see the magazine cover that is the person who is the heroic caregiver. Or the Netflix series that dramatizes the person who makes all of our other lives work so we can do the things we do. Let's make heroes out of those people. That's the Netflix show that I would binge.
我想有兩種答案: 一種是錢的方面, 就是工作讓你養家糊口。 那就是穩定。 你需要能吃飽。 然後你將我們的文化想得更廣泛, 你問:我們讓誰成為英雄? 我想要看到的是雜誌封面人物 呈現的是英雄般的照護工作者。 或在 Netflix 系列的影片裡 那個讓所有東西都維持正常運作, 我們因而可以安居樂業的人。 我們讓這些人成為英雄吧。 這是會讓我為之瘋狂的 Netflix 節目。
And we've had chroniclers of this before -- Studs Terkel, the oral history of the working experience in the United States. And what we need is the experience of needing one another and being connected to each other. Maybe that's the answer for how we all fit as a society. And the thought exercise, to me, is: if you were to go back 100 years and have people -- my grandparents, great-grandparents, a tailor, worked in a mine -- they look at what all of us do for a living and say, "That's not work." We sit there and type and talk, and there's no danger of getting hurt. And my guess is that if you were to imagine 100 years from now, we'll still be doing things for each other. We'll still need one another. And we just will think of it as work.
我們以前就有這種編年史家—— 史都茨 · 特枸, 他口述了在美國工作經驗的歷史。 我們需要的是彼此需要的經驗, 以及彼此連結的經驗。 也許這就是我們能 在社會相互依存的答案。 對我來說,思考練習是: 如果你回到 100 年前 並有人 ...... 我的祖父母,曾祖父母, 一個裁縫,在礦坑工作 - 當他們看到我們謀生的方式, 會說:「那不能算是工作。」 我們是坐在那裡打字和說話, 而且沒有受傷的危險。 我的猜測是,如果你想像 100 年後的事, 我們還會在為彼此做事。 我們仍然需要彼此。 我們只會將它視為工作。
The entire thing I'm trying to say is that dignity should not just be about having a job. Because if you say you need a job to have dignity, which many people say, the second you say that, you say to all the parents and all the teachers and all the caregivers that all of a sudden, because they're not being paid for what they're doing, it somehow lacks this essential human quality. To me, that's the great puzzle of our time: Can we figure out how to provide that stability throughout life, and then can we figure out how to create an inclusive, not just racially, gender, but multigenerationally inclusive -- I mean, every different human experience included -- in this way of understanding how we can be needed by one another.
我想說的全部內容是 尊嚴不應該只是有一份工作。 因為如果你說 你需要一份工作才會有尊嚴, 很多人這麼說, 當你這麼說, 你就是在對所有的父母、 所有的老師和所有照護者說, 突然間, 因為他們所做的事情 並沒有得到相對應的報酬, 在某種程度上似乎就 缺乏了基本的人本素質。 對我來說,這是我們時代的大謎題: 我們如何提供終身穩定的生活, 我們如何能創造一個包容...... 不僅僅是對種族、性別, 還有多世代的包容—— 我的意思是,包括 各種不同人類經驗—— 以這種方式理解我們如何彼此需要。
BF: Thank you. RB: Thank you.
BF:謝謝。 RB:謝謝。
BF: Thank you very much for your participation.
BF:非常感謝你們的參與。
(Applause)
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