In December of 2010, the city of Apatzingán in the coastal state of Michoacán, in Mexico, awoke to gunfire. For two straight days, the city became an open battlefield between the federal forces and a well-organized group, presumably from the local criminal organization, La Familia Michoacana, or the Michoacán family. The citizens didn't only experience incessant gunfire but also explosions and burning trucks used as barricades across the city, so truly like a battlefield. After these two days, and during a particularly intense encounter, it was presumed that the leader of La Familia Michoacana, Nazario Moreno, was killed.
2010 年十二月, 在墨西哥沿岸米卻肯州 城市阿帕欽甘 被槍火吵醒。 連續兩日 這城市變成了公開戰場, 由聯邦力量 和有組織的群體開戰, 極有可能是當地犯罪組織, La Familia Michoacana,或者是米卻肯家族。 市民們不僅經歷了持續不斷的槍聲, 還有爆炸, 整個城市裡燒著的貨車被用作路障 所以真的是一個戰場。 這兩天後, 在一次特別激烈的行動, 米卻肯家族的領袖 莫瑞諾相信被殺。
In response to this terrifying violence, the mayor of Apatzingán decided to call the citizens to a march for peace. The idea was to ask for a softer approach to criminal activity in the state. And so, the day of the scheduled procession, thousands of people showed up. As the mayor was preparing to deliver the speech starting the march, his team noticed that, while half of the participants were appropriately dressed in white, and bearing banners asking for peace, the other half was actually marching in support of the criminal organization and its now-presumed-defunct leader. Shocked, the mayor decided to step aside rather than participate or lead a procession that was ostensibly in support of organized crime. And so his team stepped aside. The two marches joined together, and they continued their path towards the state capital.
這可怕的暴力導致 阿帕欽甘的市長 召喚市民上街為和平遊行。 理念是要尋找更柔和的途徑 去打擊罪犯行動。 所以,在約定的日子, 幾千人上街。 當市長準備 演說去開始遊行, 他的團隊發覺 一半的參與者 合宜的穿了白色 和帶了橫額尋求和平, 另一半卻其實 為犯罪組織 和已去世的領袖遊行。 市長感到震驚,與其參與或帶領一個 看起來會支持組織罪案的遊行, 不如決定避開, 所以他的團隊決定不插手。 兩個遊行聯合了, 並繼續向 州首都走去。
This story of horrific violence followed by a fumbled approach by federal and local authorities as they tried to engage civil society, who has been very well engaged by a criminal organization, is a perfect metaphor for what's happening in Mexico today, where we see that our current understanding of drug violence and what leads to it is probably at the very least incomplete.
這個故事,從暴力開始, 接下來由聯邦和當地權威 試著摸索着, 去和社會團體打交道, 即一個和罪案組織有密切關係的城市, 是對今天的墨西哥的完美的比喻, 我們現時對 毒品暴力的理解,和導致的原因 或許非常不完整。
If you decided to spend 30 minutes trying to figure out what's going on with drug violence in Mexico by, say, just researching online, the first thing you would find out is that while the laws state that all Mexican citizens are equal, there are some that are more and there are some that are much less equal than others, because you will quickly find out that in the past six years anywhere between 60 and 100,000 people have lost their lives in drug-related violence. To put these numbers in perspective, this is eight times larger than the number of casualties in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined. It's also shockingly close to the number of people who have died in the Syrian civil war, which is an active civil war. This is happening just south of the border.
如果你決定花 30 分鐘去 明白墨西哥的毒品暴力, 就說從網上看吧, 你會找到的第一件事是, 儘管法律說明所有墨西哥人是平等的, 有些會比其他更高等, 一些會比其他更低等, 因為你會很快發現 在過去的六年, 有 60 到 10 萬這樣的人數 在與毒品有關的暴力中喪失生命。 用不同角度看這些數字, 這是比在伊拉克和阿富汗 戰爭中傷亡人數的八倍; 這數字也很接近 在敘利亞內戰死亡的人數, 這還是個現行的內戰。 這還只是發生在邊界南面的數字。
Now as you're reading, however, you will be maybe surprised that you will quickly become numb to the numbers of deaths, because you will see that these are sort of abstract numbers of faceless, nameless dead people. Implicitly or explicitly, there is a narrative that all the people who are dying were somehow involved in the drug trade, and we infer this because they were either tortured or executed in a professional manner, or, most likely, both. And so clearly they were criminals because of the way they died. And so the narrative is that somehow these people got what they were deserved. They were part of the bad guys. And that creates some form of comfort for a lot of people.
當你閱讀這些資料, 你可能會對這些死亡數字麻木, 並對自己感到驚訝。 因為,這些都是抽象的數字 死的都是寂寂無名的人, 無論如何, 這些死了的人 某程度上都和毒品交易有關, 我們如此推斷因為他們不是被折磨, 就是以專業方式被處決 或者,兩樣都是。 因為他們死的方式, 他們顯然是罪犯。 所以這些人某程度上 得到應有的。 他們是壞人。 這令很多人 感到安慰。
However, while it's easier to think of us, the citizens, the police, the army, as the good guys, and them, the narcos, the carteles, as the bad guys, if you think about it, the latter are only providing a service to the former. Whether we like it or not, the U.S. is the largest market for illegal substances in the world, accounting for more than half of global demand. It shares thousands of miles of border with Mexico that is its only route of access from the South, and so, as the former dictator of Mexico, Porfirio Diaz, used to say, "Poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States."
雖然這樣想比較容易; 視我們這些市民,警察,軍隊 為好人,而那些毒販, 那些毒梟,為壞人。 可是認真想, 後者只是為前者服務。 無論我們喜歡與否, 美國是世界上 最大的毒品市場, 佔全球需求的一半以上。 因為數千英里的邊境和墨西哥接壤, 而且是從南來的唯一路徑; 因此,作為墨西哥的前獨裁者, 波菲裡奧 · 迪亞斯, 常說,"可憐的墨西哥, 離神這麼遠,卻這麼接近美國。“
The U.N. estimates that there are 55 million users of illegal drugs in the United States. Using very, very conservative assumptions, this yields a yearly drug market on the retail side of anywhere between 30 and 150 billion dollars. If we assume that the narcos only have access to the wholesale part, which we know is false, that still leaves you with yearly revenues of anywhere between 15 billion and 60 billion dollars. To put these numbers in perspective, Microsoft has yearly revenues of 60 billion dollars. And it so happens that this is a product that, because of its nature, a business model to address this market requires you to guarantee to your producers that their product will be reliably placed in the markets where it is consumed. And the only way to do this, because it's illegal, is to have absolute control of the geographic corridors that are used to transport drugs. Hence the violence. If you look at a map of cartel influence and violence, you will see that it almost perfectly aligns with the most efficient routes of transportation from the south to the north. The only thing that the cartels are doing is that they're trying to protect their business.
聯合國估計美國有 五千五百萬個非法藥物的用者。 使用非常,非常保守的假設, 這會導致一個龐大的毒品市場 甚至大至 300 到 1500 億美元。 如果我們假設毒販只能 打通批發部分,當然我們知道這並不真實, 但這仍然會給他們 150 億和 600 億美元之間的利潤。 另一角度看這些數字, 微軟年收入為 600 億美金。 而毒品卻, 因為其性質,解決需求 需要一個特別的生意模式, 要保證對生產商 他們的產品將會被放置 在可靠的市場。 因為這是非法的,唯一的辦法 是要對地理有絕對掌握 一曲運送毒品。 因此就有暴力。 假如我們看看有關毒品業的地圖 毒品行業的影響和暴力 與最有效的運輸路線差不多完全一樣 從南向北。 毒梟唯一在做的, 是他們要保護他們的業務。
It's not only a multi-billion dollar market, but it's also a complex one. For example, the coca plant is a fragile plant that can only grow in certain latitudes, and so it means that a business model to address this market requires you to have decentralized, international production, that by the way needs to have good quality control, because people need a good high that is not going to kill them and that is going to be delivered to them when they need it. And so that means they need to secure production and quality control in the south, and you need to ensure that you have efficient and effective distribution channels in the markets where these drugs are consumed. I urge you, but only a little bit, because I don't want to get you in trouble, to just ask around and see how difficult it would be to get whatever drug you want, wherever you want it, whenever you want it, anywhere in the U.S., and some of you may be surprised to know that there are many dealers that offer a service where if you send them a text message, they guarantee delivery of the drug in 30 minutes or less.
它不只是有關幾十億元的市場, 它同樣十分複雜。 例如,古柯植物非常脆弱 只能在某些緯度生長 這代表,為解決這樣的市場 商業將包含 分散的、 國際的生產、 順帶一提,必須有良好的品質控制, 因為人們想感到吸毒後的高漲 卻不會致命, 而藥物要被準確運送到。 所以他們要確保 南方生產和品質控制, 同時需要 高效率和有效的分銷管道 去接觸這些市場。 我提議你,但只試一點點, 因為我不想給你帶來麻煩, 就是去打聽一下在美國何時何地 去問人在哪裡買你要的任何藥物 有多難。 你們中某些可能會很驚訝去知道 有許多提供服務的轉銷商, 假如你發短信給他們, 他們能保證藥物 在三十分鐘內被運到。
Think about this for a second. Think about the complexity of the distribution network that I just described. It's very difficult to reconcile this with the image of faceless, ignorant goons that are just shooting each other, very difficult to reconcile.
花時間想想。 想想我剛才說的 分布網絡有多複雜。 看起來這和無名的, 互相射殺的毒販 很難扯上關係 很難去想。
Now, as a business professor, and as any business professor would tell you, an effective organization requires an integrated strategy that includes a good organizational structure, good incentives, a solid identity and good brand management. This leads me to the second thing that you would learn in your 30-minute exploration of drug violence in Mexico. Because you would quickly realize, and maybe be confused by the fact, that there are three organizations that are constantly named in the articles. You will hear about Los Zetas, the Knights Templar, which is the new brand for the Familia Michoacana that I spoke about at the beginning, and the Sinaloa Federation. You will read that Los Zetas is this assortment of sociopaths that terrify the cities that they enter and they silence the press, and this is somewhat true, or mostly true. But this is the result of a very careful branding and business strategy. You see, Los Zetas is not just this random assortment of individuals, but was actually created by another criminal organization, the Gulf Cartel, that used to control the eastern corridor of Mexico. When that corridor became contested, they decided that they wanted to recruit a professional enforcement arm. So they recruited Los Zetas: an entire unit of elite paratroopers from the Mexican Army. They were incredibly effective as enforcers for the Gulf Cartel, so much so that at some point, they decided to just take over the operations, which is why I ask you to never keep tigers as pets, because they grow up. Because the Zetas organization was founded in treason, they lost some of the linkages to the production and distribution in the most profitable markets like cocaine, but what they did have, and this is again based on their military origin, was a perfectly structured chain of command with a very clear hierarchy and a very clear promotion path that allowed them to supervise and operate across many, many markets very effectively, which is the essence of what a chain of command seeks to do. And so because they didn't have access to the more profitable drug markets, this pushed them and gave them the opportunity to diversify into other forms of crime. That includes kidnapping, prostitution, local drug dealing and human trafficking, including of migrants that go from the south to the U.S. So what they currently run is truly and quite literally a franchise business. They focus most of their recruiting on the army, and they very openly advertise for better salaries, better benefits, better promotion paths, not to mention much better food, than what the army can deliver. The way they operate is that when they arrive in a locality, they let people know that they are there, and they go to the most powerful local gang and they say, "I offer you to be the local representative of the Zeta brand." If they agree -- and you don't want to know what happens if they don't -- they train them and they supervise them on how to run the most efficient criminal operation for that town, in exchange for royalties. This kind of business model obviously depends entirely on having a very effective brand of fear, and so Los Zetas carefully stage acts of violence that are spectacular in nature, especially when they arrive first in a city, but again, that's just a brand strategy. I'm not saying they're not violent, but what I am saying is that even though you will read that they are the most violent of all, when you count, when you do the body count, they're actually all the same.
現在,作為一名商務教授, 而所有商務教授都會如此說, 一個有效的組織要求 一項綜合的戰略,其中包括 良好的組織結構、 激勵機制, 肯定的身分和良好的品牌管理。 所以在對墨西哥的三十分鐘探索, 我們學到的第二件事, 你很快會意識到, 甚至被混淆; 有三個組織的名字 不停出現在文章上。 洛斯哲塔斯, 及新的品牌,聖殿騎士團 由一開始時談及的米卻肯家族新創, 和錫納羅亞販毒集團。 你將讀到洛斯哲塔斯會做各式各樣 反社會的事,恐嚇他們進入的城市 然而媒體不會報道, 這某程度上,或很大程度上是真的。 但這是因為非常小心的管理 和業務戰略。 洛斯哲塔斯並不只是 隨機組合的人們, 而是由另一犯罪組織,海灣販毒集團創建, 它曾經控制墨西哥的東岸走廊。 當那條走廊被人入侵,他們決定 招聘 一個專業執法部門。 所以他們招募洛斯哲塔斯: 即墨西哥軍隊裡 整個單位的精銳傘兵。 他們為海灣販毒集團非常有效地執法。 因此到了一定時候,他們決定 接管行動。 這正正反映,別養虎為患, 因為他們長大了。 因為洛斯哲塔斯是由叛變之下成立的, 在最高利潤的市場,例如可卡因 他們失去了一些對生產和分配的聯繫。 但他們有的, 這又是基於其軍事的起源, 是結構化的指揮鏈, 非常清晰的層次結構, 非常清晰的晉升途徑, 非常有效地監管 和操控很多市場, 這就是指揮鏈最根本的作用。 他們不能進入 更賺錢的毒品市場, 卻給了他們機會 化成其他形式的犯罪。 這包括綁架、 賣淫、 當地毒品交易和販賣人口, 包括從南邊到美國的移民。 所以他們正在運行的 其實是專營業務。 他們的招聘很多都是在軍隊, 而他們會公開賣廣告:更好的薪水 更多的福利,更多的晉升途徑, 還有比軍隊能夠提供的 更佳的食物。 他們的運作的方式是, 當他們到達一個地方, 他們會讓人們知道他們在那, 然後去當地最強的黑幫, 說:「我讓你 成為洛斯哲塔斯的地區性代表。」 如果他們同意 — — 你不想知道 如果他們不同意怎麼辦, 他們訓練他們,和他們監督他們 如何在當地運行最有效率的犯罪行動, 以換取特許權使用費。 這種業務模式顯然完全取決於 對品牌的恐懼, 洛斯哲塔斯如此 仔細策劃的暴力行為, 本質是如此的驚人, 尤其是當他們剛一個城市時。 但同樣,這只是品牌戰略。 我不是說他們不暴力, 但我的意思是,即使你讀到 他們是最暴力的幫派, 但當點死亡人數時, 其實跟其他都一樣。
In contrast to them, the Knights Templar that arose in Michoacán emerged in reaction to the incursion of the Zetas into the state of Michoacán. Michoacán is a geographically strategic state because it has one of the largest ports in Mexico, and it has very direct routes to the center of Mexico, which then gives you direct access to the U.S. The Knights Templar realized very quickly that they couldn't face the Zetas on violence alone, and so they developed a strategy as a social enterprise. They brand themselves as representative of and protecting of the citizens of Michoacán against organized crime. Their brand of social enterprise means that they require a lot of civic engagement, so they invest heavily in providing local services, like dealing with home violence, going after petty criminals, treating addicts, and keeping drugs out of the local markets where they are, and, of course, protecting people from other criminal organizations. Now, they kill a lot of people too, but when they kill them, they provide very careful narratives and descriptions for why they did them, through newspaper insertions, YouTube videos, and billboards that explain that the people who were killed were killed because they represented a threat not to us, as an organization, of course, but to you, as citizens. And so we're actually here to protect you. They, as social enterprises do, have created a moral and ethical code that they advertise around, and they have very strict recruiting practices. And here you have the types of explanations that they provide for some of their actions. They have actually retained access to the profitable drug trade, but the way they do it is, because they control all of Michoacán, and they control the Port of Lázaro Cárdenas, they leverage that to, for example, trade copper from Michoacán that is legally created and legally extracted with illegal ephedrine from China which is a critical precursor for methamphetamines that they produce, and then they have partnerships with larger organizations like the Sinaloa Federation that place their products in the U.S.
作為對比,聖殿騎士團 是在米卻肯州起源的, 對洛斯哲塔斯入侵他們的州分 產生了反應。 米卻肯州戰略性重要的地方, 因為它有墨西哥最大的港口之一, 和直接進入墨西哥中心的路線。 然後就能直通美國。 聖殿騎士很快就意識到 他們不能單純以暴力解決洛斯哲塔斯, 所以他們開發了新的戰略 成為社會企業。 他們包裝自己為 保護米卻肯州市民的代表 打擊有組織犯罪。 作為社會企業代表 他們需要與民眾有很多的交流, 所以他們大量投資當地服務, 例如處理家庭暴力, 處理瑣碎的罪案,治療癮君子, 和讓毒品遠離他們 所在地的市場。 當然,保護人民 不被其他犯罪組織侵犯。 他們也殺了很多人, 但當他們殺了他們, 他們提供了非常小心的敘述和說明 對於為什麼殺他們, 通過報章報道,YouTube 視頻, 看版解釋為何那些人被殺, 因為這些人反映了威脅, 不是對於我們,作為一個組織, 但是對你們,公民。 所以我們實際上是來保護你。 他們作為社會企業, 已創建一個道德和倫理的章法, 他們到處做廣告, 有非常嚴格的招聘方法。 對於他們的一些行動, 他們會有幾種解釋。 他們實際上保留了進入 高價毒品的交易的道路, 而他們的方法,因為他們控制著整個米卻肯州, 和拉薩羅卡德納勒港口, 他們利用這一點,例如 利用在米卻肯合法製成 和合法提取的銅去交易 來自中國,非法的麻黃素, 一個製作冰毒的重要材料。 他們生產,就與較大的組織 建立夥伴關係,像錫納羅亞販毒集團, 會將產品放於美國。
Finally, the Sinaloa Federation. When you read about them, you will often read about them with an undertone of reverence and admiration, because they are the most integrated and the largest of all the Mexican organizations, and, many people argue, the world. They started as just sort of a transport organization that specialized in smuggling between the U.S. and the Mexican borders, but now they have grown into a truly integrated multinational that has partnerships in production in the south and partnerships in global distribution across the planet. They have cultivated a brand of professionalism, business acumen and innovation. They have designed new drug products and new drug processes. They have designed narco-tunnels that go across the border, and you can see that these are not "The Shawshank Redemption" types. They have invented narco-submarines and boats that are not detected by radar. They have invented drones to transport drugs, catapults, you name it. One of the leaders of the Sinaloa Federation actually made it to the Forbes list.
最後,錫納羅亞販毒集團。 尋找他們的資料時,都是 被尊敬和欽佩地敘述。 因為他們是最完整, 是墨西哥所有組織中最大的, 很多人還認為,是世界上最大的組織。 他們開始時只是運輸機構, 專門在美國和墨西哥 邊界走私, 但現在他們已經長大 成為一個架構完整的跨國集團 在南方有生產的夥伴, 也有銷售夥伴 分布全球。 他們培養的品牌含有專業, 商業智慧與創新。 他們設計過新的藥物 和新的生產過程。 他們設計了販毒隧道 超越邊境, 這些不是 「肖申克的救贖」的類型。 他們發明了販毒潛水艇和小船 是雷達檢查不到的。 他們發明了無人駕駛飛機運輸毒品, 彈射器,包羅萬有。 錫納羅亞販毒集團領導人之一 實際上在福布斯榜上有名。
[#701 Joaquin Guzman Loera]
[#701 Joaquin Guzman Loera]
Like any multinational would, they have specialized and focused only in the most profitable part of the business, which is high-margin drugs like cocaine, heroine, methamphetamines. Like any traditional Latin American multinational would, the way they control their operations is through family ties. When they're entering a new market, they send a family member to supervise it, or, if they're partnering with a new organization, they create a family tie, either through marriages or other types of ties. Like any other multinational would, they protect their brand by outsourcing the more questionable parts of the business model, like for example, when they have to engage in violence against other criminal organizations, they recruit gangs and other smaller players to do the dirty work for them, and they try to separate their operations and their violence and be very discrete about this.
像任何跨國公司,他們 專注了在最有利可圖的部分, 就像高檔的毒品,例如可卡因 海洛英,甲基安非他命。 像任何傳統的拉丁美洲跨國公司, 他們是靠家庭關係 控制行動的。 當他們要進入一個新的市場,他們發送 一名家庭成員監督, 如果需要新的企業夥伴, 他們創建家庭結, 要麼通過婚姻,或其他類型的關係。 像任何其他跨國公司一樣, 他們會以外包生意上可疑的部分 保護自己的品牌。 譬如,當他們要 以暴力打壓其他組織時, 他們聘請幫派和其他小玩家 做骯髒的工作, 試圖完全分開他們的行動 和他們的暴力行為。
To further strengthen their brand, they actually have professional P.R. firms that shape how the press talks about them. They have professional videographers on staff. They have incredibly productive ties with the security organizations on both sides of the border.
為進一步加強他們的品牌, 他們實際上有專業公關公司 向報社塑造他們的形象。 他們有專業攝像師, 難以置信的生產力聯繫 與保安機構 在邊界兩邊。
And so, differences aside, what these three organizations share is on the one hand, a very clear understanding that institutions cannot be imposed from the top, but rather they are built from the bottom up one interaction at a time. They have created extremely coherent structures that they use to show the inconsistencies in government policies.
所以,不計差異, 這三個組織同樣, 一方面,非常清楚 機構不是由上而下 而是由下而上創建的。 一次一次的互動。 他們建立了極度連貫的結構 去顯示政府政策 前後矛盾的地方。
And so what I want you to remember from this talk are three things. The first one is that drug violence is actually the result of a huge market demand and an institutional setup that forces the servicing of this market to necessitate violence to guarantee delivery routes. The second thing I want you to remember is that these are sophisticated, coherent organizations that are business organizations, and analyzing them and treating them as such is probably a much more useful approach. The third thing I want you to remember is that even though we're more comfortable with this idea of "them," a set of bad guys separated from us, we are actually accomplices to them, either through our direct consumption or through our acceptance of the inconsistency between our policies of prohibition and our actual behavior of tolerance or even encouragement of consumption.
今天演說想你記住的 有三件事。 第一,毒品的暴力行為 是巨大市場 需求的結果, 還有機構的設置迫使 服務這市場需要暴力 去保證運輸路線。 第二, 這些都是複雜, 協調一致的組織, 是商業組織, 視他們為商業組織以剖析和探討 是一個更有效的方法。 第三, 「他們都是壞人,與我無關。」 即使我們這樣看「他們」 更加舒服, 我們其實都是他們的幫兇。 我們或直接消費 或接受其矛盾存在於 我們禁令政策 和我們對毒品的容忍 或甚至鼓勵使用毒品。
These organizations service, recruit from, and operate within our communities, so necessarily, they are much more integrated within them than we are comfortable acknowledging. And so to me the question is not whether these dynamics will continue the way they have. We see that the nature of this phenomenon guarantees that they will. The question is whether we are willing to continue our support of a failed strategy based on our stubborn, blissful, voluntary ignorance at the cost of the deaths of thousands of our young.
他們於我們的社區 服務,招募,和經營。 他們比我們所認為的 更加完整。 對於我,問題不是 這些活動會否維持一樣。 這種活動的性質 保證他們會繼續。 問題是我們是否願意繼續 支援一個失敗的策略, 基於我們固執、 幸福、 自願的無知 代價是幾千個年輕人將死亡。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)