I'm going to talk about two stories today. One is how we need to use market-based pricing to affect demand and use wireless technologies to dramatically reduce our emissions in the transportation sector. And the other is that there is an incredible opportunity if we choose the right wireless technologies; how we can generate a new engine for economic growth and dramatically reduce C02 in the other sectors.
Danas ću vam ispričati dve priče. Jedna govori o tome kako treba da koristimo cene bazirane na tržištu da utičemo na potražnju i koristimo bežične tehnologije da značajno smanjimo emisije u saobraćajnom sektoru. Druga priča je da postoji neverovatna mogućnost da ako odaberemo prave bežične tehnologije; možemo da napravimo novi motor za ekonomski rast i značajno smanjimo CO2 u ostalim sektorima.
I'm really scared. We need to reduce C02 emissions in ten to fifteen years by 80 percent in order to avert catastrophic effects. And I am astounded that I'm standing here to tell you that. What are catastrophic effects? A three degree centigrade climate change rise that will result in 50 percent species extinction. It's not a movie. This is real life. And I'm really worried, because when people talk about cars -- which I know something about -- the press and politicians and people in this room are all thinking, "Let's use fuel-efficient cars." If we started today, 10 years from now, at the end of this window of opportunity, those fuel-efficient cars will reduce our fossil fuel needs by four percent. That is not enough.
Zaista sam uplašena. Moramo da smanjimo emisije CO2 za 80% u narednih 10 do 15 godina da bismo sprečili katastrofalne efekte. Ja sam zapanjena da stojim ovde i govorim vam to. Koji su to katastrofalni efekti? Povišenje temperature od tri stepeni Celzijusa koje će rezultirati u istrebljenju 50% vrsta. To nije film. To je stvarni život. Ja sam stvarno zabrinuta, jer kada ljudi govore o automobilima – o čemu znam ponešto – štampa i političari i ljudi u ovoj prostoriji svi misle „Hajde da koristimo automobile sa efikasnom potrošnjom goriva.” Ako bismo počeli danas, za 10 godina, po isteku ove prilike, ti automobili sa efikasnom potrošnjom goriva će smanjiti našu potrebu za fosilnim gorivima za 4 procenta. To nije dovoljno.
But now I'll talk about some more pleasant things. Here are some ways that we can make some dramatic changes. So, Zipcar is a company that I founded seven years ago, but it's an example of something called car sharing. What Zipcar does is we park cars throughout dense urban areas for members to reserve, by the hour and by the day, instead of using their own car. How does it feel to be a person using a Zipcar? It means that I pay only for what I need. All those hours when a car is sitting idle, I'm not paying for it. It means that I can choose a car exactly for that particular trip. So, here's a woman that reserved MiniMia, and she had her day. I can take a BMW when I'm seeing clients. I can drive my Toyota Element when I'm going to go on that surfing trip.
Ali sada ću govoriti o malo prijatnijim stvarima. Evo nekoliko načina kako možemo da napravimo značajne promene. Dakle, Zipkar je kompanija koju sam osnovala pre sedam godina, ali to je primer nečega što se zove zajednička upotreba automobila. Mi u Zipkaru parkiramo automobile u gustim gradskim područjima da bi članovi mogli da ih rezervišu na sat ili dan, umesto da koriste sopstvene automobile. Šta znači biti osoba koja koristi Zipkar? To znači da plaćam samo za ono što mi je potrebno. Sve sate za vreme kojih automobil miruje, to ne plaćam. To znači da mogu da biram automobil namenski za određeno putovanje. Dakle, ovde je žena koja je rezervisala MiniMiu, i ona ga je koristila tog dana. Mogu da uzmem BMW kada se nalazim sa klijentima. Mogu da vozim moju Tojotu Element kada idem na putovanje zbog surfovanja.
And the other remarkable thing is it's, I think, the highest status of car ownership. Not only do I have a fleet of cars available to me in seven cities around the world that I can have at my beck and call, but heaven forbid I would ever maintain or deal with the repair or have anything to do with it. It's like the car that you always wanted that your mom said that you couldn't have. I get all the good stuff and none of the bad.
Još jedna izvanredna stvar je najviši status posedovanja automobila. Ne samo da posedujem vozni park automobila meni dostupnih u sedam gradova širom sveta uvek spremnih kad god poželim, ali ne daj Bože da ću ja ikada održavati ili se baviti popravkama ili imati bilo kakve veze sa tim. To je kao automobil koji ste oduvek želeli za koji vam je mama rekla da ne možete da ga imate. Ja dobijam sve dobre stvari bez ijedne loše.
So, what is the social result of this? The social result is that today's Zipcar has 100,000 members driving 3,000 cars parked in 3,000 parking spaces. Instead of driving 12,000 miles a year, which is what the average city dweller does, they drive 500 miles a year. Are they happy? The company has been doubling in size ever since I founded it, or greater. People adore the company. And it's better, you know? They like it. So, how is it that people went from the 12,000 miles a year to 500 miles? It's because they said, "It's eight to 10 dollars an hour and 65 dollars a day. If I'm going to go buy some ice cream, do I really want to spend eight dollars to go buy the ice cream? Or maybe I'll do without. Maybe I would have bought the ice cream when I did some other errand." So, people really respond very quickly to it, to prices.
Dakle, koji je društveni rezultat ovoga? Društveni rezultat je da danas Zipkar ima 100 hiljada članova koji koriste 3000 automobila parkiranih na 3000 parking mesta. Umesto da vozite 20 hiljada kilometara godišnje, koliko prosečni stanovnik pređe, oni voze 800 kilometara godišnje. Da li su srećni? Kompanija se dvostruko uvećala od kada sam je osnovala, čak i više. Ljudi obožavaju kompaniju. I to je bolje, zar ne? Njima se to sviđa. Dakle, kako su ljudi došli sa 20 hiljada kilometara godišnje na 800 kilometara? To je zato što kažu: „To je 8–10 dolara po satu i 66 dolara dnevno. Ako bih išao da kupim sladoled, da li stvarno želim da potrošim 8 dolara da idem da kupim sladoled? Ili ću možda bez toga. Možda ću kupiti sladoled kada idem nešto drugo da radim.” Dakle, ljudi stvarno veoma brzo reaguju na to, na cene.
And the last point I want to make is Zipcar would never be possible without technology. It required that it was completely trivial: that it takes 30 seconds to reserve a car, go get it, drive it. And for me, as a service provider, I would never be able to provide you a car for an hour if the transaction cost was anything. So, without these wireless technologies, this, as a concept, could never happen.
Poslednja stavka koju želim da pomenem je da Zipkar nikada ne bi bio moguć bez tehnologije. Bilo je neophodno da bude potpuno jednostavan: da bude potrebno 30 sekundi za rezervisanje automobila, otići do njega, voziti ga. Ja, kao ponuđač usluga, nikada ne bih mogla da vam obezbedim automobil za jedan sat da je postojao trošak transakcije. Dakle, bez ovih bežičnih tehnologija, ovo, kao koncept, nikada ne bi zaživelo.
So, here's another example. This company is GoLoco -- I'm launching it in about three weeks -- and I hope to do for ridesharing what I did for car sharing. This will apply to people across all of America. Today, 75 percent of the trips are single-occupancy vehicles, yet 12 percent of trips to work are currently carpool. And I think that we can apply social networks and online payment systems to completely change how people feel about ridesharing and make that trip much more efficient.
Dakle, evo još jednog primera. To je kompanija GoLoco – pokrećem je za oko tri nedelje – i nadam se da ću za zajedničku vožnju uraditi ono što sam uradila za zajedničko korišćenje automobila. Ovo će se odnositi na ljude širom Amerike. Danas, 75% putovanja se obavlja sa jednom osobom u vozilu, dok je 12% je putovanja na posao trenutno zajednička vožnja automobilom. Mislim da možemo da primenimo društvene mreže i onlajn sisteme za plaćanje da potpuno promenimo stav ljudi o zajedničkoj vožnji i učinimo to putovanje mnogo efikasnijim.
And so when I think about the future, people will be thinking that sharing the ride with someone is this incredibly great social event out of their day. You know, how did you get to TED? You went with other TEDsters. How fabulous. Why would you ever want to go by yourself in your own car? How did you go food shopping? You went with your neighbor, what a great social time. You know it's going to really transform how we feel about travel, and it will also, I think, enhance our freedom of mobility. Where can I go today and who can I do it with? Those are the types of things that you will look at and feel.
Kada mislim o budućnosti, ljudi će misliti da je zajednička vožnja sa nekim veliki društveni događaj u njihovom danu. Znate, kako ste došli na TED? Došli ste sa ostalim TEDovcima. Sjajno. Zašto bi ikada želeli da se sami vozite u sopstvenom automobilu? Kako ste išli u kupovinu hrane? Išli ste sa komšijom, kako dobro društveno vreme. Znate, to će stvarno promeniti naš stav prema putovanju, i takođe će, mislim, povećati našu slobodu mobilnosti. Gde mogu danas da idem i sa kim mogu da idem? To su vrste stvari o kojima ćete razmišljati i raditi.
And the social benefits: the rate of single-occupancy vehicles is, I told you, 75 percent; I think we can get that down to 50 percent. The demand for parking, of course, is down, congestion and the CO2 emissions. One last piece about this, of course, is that it's enabled by wireless technologies. And it's the cost of driving that's making people want to be able to do this. The average American spends 19 percent of their income on their car, and there's a pressure for them to reduce that cost, yet they have no outlet today.
A društvene koristi: stepen vozila sa jednom osobom je, rekla sam, 75%; mislim da to možemo da snizimo na 50%. Zahtev za parkiranjem se, naravno, smanjuje, kao i zagušenja puteva i emisije CO2. Poslednja stvar oko ovoga, naravno, je da je omogućen primenom bežičnih tehnologija. Cena vožnje je to što tera ljude da žele da rade ovo. Prosečan Amerikanac troši 19% svog prihoda na automobil, i postoji pritisak na njih da smanje troškove, ali danas još uvek nemaju rešenje.
So, the last example of this is congestion pricing, very famously done in London. It's when you charge a premium for people to drive on congested roads. In London, the day they turned the congestion pricing on, there was a 25 percent decrease in congestion overnight, and that's persisted for the four years in which they've been doing congestion pricing. And again, do people like the outcome? Ken Livingstone was reelected. So again, we can see that price plays an enormous role in people's willingness to reduce their driving behavior. We've tripled the miles that we drive since 1970 and doubled them since 1982. There's a huge slack in that system; with the right pricing we can undo that.
Poslednji primer ovoga je naplata korišćenja zagušenih deonica, veoma uspešno primenjena u Londonu. To je kada se naplaćuje ljudima koji voze na zagušenim putevima. U Londonu, na dan kada su uveli naplatu korišćenja zagušenih deonica, preko noći je zabeleženo smanjenje od 25% zagušenja, i to se nastavilo tokom sledeće 4 godine od kada koriste naplatu korišćenja zagušenih deonica. Ponovo, da li se ljudima sviđa rezultat? Ken Livingston je ponovo izabran. Ponovo, može se videti da naplata igra značajnu ulogu u želji ljudi da smanje svoje navike za vožnjom. Pređeni kilometri su se upetostručili od 1970. i utrostručili od 1982. godine. Postoji veliki nemar u tom sistemu; sa odgovarajućom naplatom možemo to da ispravimo.
Congestion pricing is being discussed in every major city around the world and is, again, wirelessly enabled. You weren't going to put tollbooths around the city of London and open and shut those gates. And what congestion pricing is is that it's a technology trial and a psychological trial for something called road pricing. And road pricing is where we're all going to have to go, because today we pay for our maintenance and wear and tear on our cars with gas taxes. And as we get our cars more fuel-efficient, that's going to be reducing the amount of revenue that you get off of those gas taxes, so we need to charge people by the mile that they drive. Whatever happens with congestion pricing and those technologies will be happening with road pricing.
Naplata korišćenja zagušenih deonica se razmatra u svim velikim gradovima širom sveta, i ponovo, omogućena je primenom bežičnih tehnologija. Nećete staviti naplatne stanice širom Londona i da otvarate i zatvarate te prolaze. A ono šta je naplata korišćenja zagušenih deonica je da je to tehnološki i psihološki probni period za nešto što se zove naplata korišćenja puteva. Naplata korišćenja puteva je nešto što ćemo svi morati da primenimo, zbog toga što danas plaćamo za održavanje i uništavamo naše automobile preko poreza na gorivo. Kako naši automobili postaju efikasniji u pogledu potrošnje goriva, to će smanjiti nivo prihoda koji se dobija od tih poreza na gorivo, i zbog toga se ljudima mora vršiti naplata po pređenom kilometru. Šta god da se desi sa naplatom korišćenja zagušenih deonica i tim tehnologijama će se desiti i sa naplatom korišćenja puteva.
Why do we travel too much? Car travel is underpriced and therefore we over-consumed. We need to put this better market feedback. And if we have it, you'll decide how many miles to drive, what mode of travel, where to live and work. And wireless technologies make this real-time loop possible.
Zašto previše putujemo? Putovanje automobilom je isuviše jeftino i stoga ga previše koristimo. Mora da se napravi bolja povratna informacija sa tržišta. Ako to imamo, vi ćete odlučiti koliko kilometara ćete preći, koji način prevoza, gde ćete živeti i raditi. Bežične tehnologije omogućavaju ovaj ciklus u realnom vremenu.
So, I want to move now to the second part of my story, which is: when are we going to start doing this congestion pricing? Road pricing is coming. When are we going to do it? Are we going to wait 10 to 15 years for this to happen or are we going to finally have this political will to make it happen in the next two years? Because I'm going to say, that is going to be the tool that's going to turn our usage overnight.
Dakle, želim sada da pređem na drugi deo moje priče, a to je: kada ćemo krenuti sa naplatom korišćenja zagušenih deonica? Naplata korišćenja puteva se približava. Kada ćemo krenuti sa tim? Da li ćemo čekati 10 do 15 godina da bi se ovo ostvarilo ili ćemo konačno imati političku želju da to sprovedemo u naredne dve godine? Zbog toga ću da kažem da će ovo biti alat koji će da preokrene naše korišćenje preko noći.
And what kind of wireless technology are we going to use? This is my big vision. There is a tool that can help us bridge the digital divide, respond to emergencies, get traffic moving, provide a new engine for economic growth and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions in every sector. And this is a moment from "The Graduate." Do you remember this moment? You guys are going to be the handsome young guy and I'm going to be the wise businessman. "I want to say one word to you, just one word." "Yes, sir?" "Are you listening?" "Yes I am." "Ad-hoc peer-to-peer self-configuring wireless networks." (Laughter) These are also called mesh networks. And in a mesh, every device contributes to and expands the network, and I think you might have heard a little bit about it before.
Koju vrstu bežične tehnologije ćemo koristiti? Ovo je moja velika vizija. Postoji alat koji nam može pomoći da premostimo digitalnu podelu, odgovorimo na hitne situacije, pokrenemo saobraćaj, obezbedimo novi motor za ekonomski rast i značajno smanjimo emisije CO2 u svakom sektoru. Ovo je trenutak iz „Diplomca”. Da li se sećate ovog momenta? Vi momci ćete biti zgodni mladi momak a ja ću biti mudri biznismen. „Želim da vam kažem samo jednu reč, samo jednu reč.” „Da gospodine?” „Da li slušate?” „Da.” „Bežične mreže koje se same konfigurišu specijalno za međusobnu komunikaciju.” (Smeh) Takođe se zovu i meš mreže. U meš mrežama, svaki uređaj doprinosi i širi mrežu, a mislim da ste možda čuli nešto o ovome ranije.
I'm going to give you some examples. You'll be hearing later today from Alan Kay. These laptops, when a child opens them up, they communicate with every single child in the classroom, within that school, within that village. And what is the cost of that communication system? Zero dollars a month. Here's another example: in New Orleans, video cameras were mesh-enabled so that they could monitor crime in the downtown French Quarter. When the hurricane happened, the only communication system standing was the mesh network. Volunteers flew in, added a whole bunch of devices, and for the next 12 months, mesh networks were the only wireless that was happening in New Orleans.
Navešću vam nekoliko primera. Kasnije danas ćete čuti od Alana Keja. Ovi laptopovi, kada ih dete otvori, oni komuniciraju sa svakim detetom u učionici, unutar škole, unutar sela. Koliki su troškovi tog komunikacionog sistema? Nula dolara mesečno. Evo još jednog primera: u Nju Orleansu, video kamere su bile omogućene korišćenjem meš mreža kako bi mogli da prate kriminal u Francuskoj četvrti u centru grada. Kada se dogodio uragan, jedini komunikacioni sistem koji je radio bila je meš mreža. Volonteri su uleteli unutra, dodali su mnoštvo uređaja, i narednih 12 meseci, meš mreže bile su jedine bežične mreže koje su postojale u Nju Orleansu.
Another example is in Portsmouth, U.K. They mesh-enabled 300 buses and they speak to these smart terminals. You can look at the terminal and be able to see precisely where your bus is on the street and when it's coming, and you can buy your tickets in real time. Again, all mesh-enabled. Monthly communication cost: zero. So, the beauty of mesh networks: you can have these very low-cost devices. Zero ongoing communication costs. Highly scalable; you can just keep adding them, and as in Katrina, you can keep subtracting them -- as long as there's some, we can still communicate. They're resilient; their redundancy is built into this fabulous decentralized design.
Još jedan primer je iz Portsmuta u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu. Oni su 300 autobusa povezali na meš mrežu i oni govore sa ovim pametnim terminalima. Možete da pogledate u terminal i da vidite tačno gde vam se nalazi autobus na ulici i kada dolazi, možete da kupite kartu u realnom vremenu. Još jednom, zahvaljujući meš mrežama. Mesečni troškovi komunikacije: nula. Dakle, lepota meš mreža: možete da imate ove veoma jeftine uređaje. Nulti troškovi rada komunikacionog sistema. Veoma proširivi; možete jednostavno da ih dodajete, i kao u slučaju Katrine, možete da ih oduzimate – dokle god postoje nekoliko, još uvek možete da komunicirate. Oni su otporni; njihove zalihe ugrađene su u ovaj čuveni decentralizovani dizajn.
What are the incredible weaknesses? There isn't anybody in Washington lobbying to make it happen -- or in those municipalities, to build out their cities with these wireless networks -- because there's zero ongoing communications cost. So, the examples that I gave you are these islands of mesh networks, and networks are interesting only as they are big.
Šta su velike slabosti? Nema nikog u Vašingtonu koji lobira da se ovo napravi – ili u tim opštinama, da izgrade svoj grad pomoću ovih bežičnih mreža – jer su troškovi komunikacije jednaki nuli. Dakle, primeri koje sam vam navela su ova ostrva meš mreža, a mreže su interesantne samo kada su velike.
How do we create a big network? Are you guys ready again -- "The Graduate"? This time you will still play the handsome young thing, but I'll be the sexy woman. These are the next two lines in the movie. "Where did you do it?" "In his car." So you know, when you stick this idea ... (Laughter) where would we expect me, Robin Chase, to be thinking is imagine if we put a mesh-network device in every single car across America. We could have a coast-to-coast, free wireless communication system. I guess I just want you to think about that.
Kako se kreira velika mreža? li ste momci ponovo spremni – „Diplomac”? Ovog puta ćete još uvek igrati ulogu zgodnog momka, ali ću ja biti seksi žena. Ovo su sledeće dve rečenice u filmu. „Gde si to uradila?” „U njegovom automobilu.” Tako da znate, kada pogurate ovu ideju... (Smeh) gde biste očekivali da ja, Robin Čejs, mislim je zamislite da stavimo uređaj povezan na meš mrežu u svaki automobil širom Amerike. Mogli bismo da imamo besplatni, bežični, komunikacioni sistem od obale do obale. Pretpostavljam da želim da samo razmislite o tome.
And why is this going to happen? Because we're going to do congestion pricing, we are going to do road tolls, gas taxes are going to become road pricing. These things are going to happen. What's the wireless technology we're going to use? Maybe we should use a good one. When are we going to do it? Maybe we shouldn't wait for the 10 or 15 years for this to happen. We should pull it forward.
Zašto će se ovo dogoditi? Zato što ćemo uvesti naplatu korišćenja zagušenih deonica, uvešćemo naplatu korišćenja puteva, porezi na gorivo će postati način naplate korišćenja puteva. Ove stvari će se desiti. Koju bežičnu tehnologiju ćemo koristiti? Možda treba da koristimo neku dobru. Kada ćemo to uraditi? Možda ne bi trebalo da čekamo 10 ili 15 godina da se ovo ostvari. Trebalo bi da to ubrzamo.
So, I'd like us to launch the wireless Internet interstate wireless mesh system, and require that this network be accessible to everyone, with open standards. Right now in the transportation sector, we're creating these wireless devices -- I guess you guys might have Fast Pass here or Easy Lane -- that are single-purpose devices in these closed networks. What is the point? We're transferring just a few little data bits when we're doing road controlling, road pricing. We have this incredible excess capacity. So, we can provide the lowest-cost means of going wireless coast-to-coast, we can have resilient nationwide communication systems, we have a new tool for creating efficiencies in all sectors. Imagine what happens when the cost of getting information from anywhere to anywhere is close to zero. What you can do with that tool: we can create an economic engine. Information should be free, and access to information should be free, and we should be charging people for carbon.
Dakle, želela bih da pokrenemo bežični, meš sistem međudržavnog Interneta, i zahtevamo da ova mreža bude svima dostupna, sa otvorenim standardima. Trenutno u saobraćajnom sektoru, kreiramo ove bežične uređaje – pretpostavljam da vi momci imate Brzi prolaz ovde ili Laku traku – uređaje koji imaju samo jednu namenu u ovim zatvorenim mrežama. Šta je svrha toga? Mi prenosimo samo nekoliko bitova podataka kada upravljamo putevima, vršimo naplatu korišćenja puteva. Imamo neverovatan višak kapaciteta. Dakle, možemo da obezbedimo najjeftinija sredstva bežične mreže od obale do obale, možemo da imamo otporne nacionalne komunikacione sisteme, imamo novi alat za stvaranje efikasnosti u svim sektorima. Zamislite šta će se desiti kada su troškovi dobijanja informacija od bilo kog mesta do bilo kog mesta bliski nuli. Šta može da se uradi sa tim alatom: možemo da stvorimo ekonomski motor. Informacije treba da budu besplatne, i pristup informacijama treba da bude besplatan, a ljudima treba da naplaćujemo za ugljenik.
I think this is a more powerful tool than the Interstate Highway Act, and I think this is as important and world changing to our economy as electrification. And if I had my druthers, we would have an open-source version in addition to open standards. And this open-source version means that it could be -- if we did a brilliant job of it -- it could be used around the world very quickly. So, going back to one of my earlier thoughts. Imagine if every one of these buses in Lagos was part of the mesh network. When I went this morning to Larry Brilliant's TEDTalk prize -- his fabulous networks -- imagine if there was an open-source mesh communications device that can be put into those networks, to make all that happen. And we can be doing it if we could just get over the fact that this little slice of things is going to be for free. We could make billions of dollars on top of it, but this one particular slice of communications needs to be open source.
Mislim da je ovo moćniji alat od Međudržavnog zakona o putevima, i mislim da je ovo jednako važno i presudno za našu ekonomiju kao elektrifikacija. Da ja mogu da biram, imali bismo verziju sa otvorenim kodom uz otvorene standarde. Verzija sa otvorenim kodom znači da – ako uradimo briljantan posao – moglo bi se koristiti širom sveta veoma brzo. Dakle, da se vratim na jednu od mojih ranijih misli. Zamislite da je svaki od ovih autobusa u Lagosu deo meš mreže. Kada sam jutros išla na Leri Brilijant TEDTalk nagradu – njegove fascinantne mreže – zamislite da je tamo bio potpuno povezan komunikacioni uređaj sa otvorenim kodom koji se može staviti u ove mreže, da omogući sve to. Mi možemo to da radimo samo ako pređemo preko činjenice da će ovaj mali deo toga biti besplatan. Možemo zaraditi milijarde dolara od toga, ali ovo posebno parče komunikacija mora da bude sa otvorenim kodom.
So, let's take control of this nightmare: implement a gas tax immediately; transition across the nation to road-tolling with this wireless mesh; require that the mesh be open to all, with open standards; and, of course, use mesh networks. Thank you. (Applause)
Dakle, hajde da počnemo da upravljamo ovom noćnom morom: odmah uvedemo porez na gorivo; pređemo na nacionalnom nivou na naplatu korišćenja puteva sa bežičnom meš mrežom; zahtevamo da meš mreža bude otvorena za svakoga, sa otvorenim standardima; i, naravno, koristimo meš mreže. Hvala. (Aplauz)