I've got apparently 18 minutes to convince you that history has a direction, an arrow; that in some fundamental sense, it's good; that the arrow points to something positive. Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk -- (Laughter) -- that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting. It was before the avian flu had reached Europe. It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election, eliciting various counter-measures by Israel. And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk that even as I was giving the upbeat talk, the apocalypse would be unfolding -- (Laughter) -- I might have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else?" But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can.
我大概有18分钟的时间 来说服你们历史发展是有方向的---如一个箭头。 本质上来说,这是个好事。 箭头指向着一些积极的事物。 当初TED来找我做个乐观的演讲 (笑声) -- 那时穆斯林还没有在世界各地引发暴乱 禽流感还未登录欧洲 哈马斯还未赢得巴勒斯坦大选 以色列也还未对之采取一系列对抗政策 说实话,如果当初接受邀请时 我能预见知道现在 老天还没打开启示录的话 (笑声) 我也许会说,“我能不能说点别的?” 不过我当时没说,那么好吧,我只能尽力试试看了。
I've got to warn you: the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle, sometimes even elusive. (Laughter) The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring -- I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain grim dimension to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration -- (Laughter) -- if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I'm afraid, the most you can hope for. OK, today -- that's if I succeed. I'll see what I can do. OK?
我必须先警告你们 我世界观的积极意义很难被理解 甚至可以说是晦涩难懂 (笑声) 当我说:“我可以变得很乐观“, 我想,我尝试去乐观这件事 本来就带着点悲观色彩,所以- (笑声) --如果“悲观的乐观主义精神“不算自相矛盾的话,恐怕 这就是今天你们可以从我这儿得到的,最乐观的东西了。 我会尽力的。
Now, in one sense, the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial. If you're just talking about social structure, OK, clearly that's gotten more complex a little over the last 10,000 years -- has reached higher and higher levels. And in fact, that's actually sustaining a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK, that biological evolution was doing for us. Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell, then cells start hanging out together in societies. Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms, then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies.
首先, 历史发展有一定方向性这个观点,不会引起太多异议。 比如我们来看看社会的结构 很显然,在过去的一万年里 社会结构越来越复杂,也越来越高级 事实上, 这个远期的趋势在人类出现之前就定好了 这是生物进化的客观规律所决定的 生命起源,从一个细胞开始, 然后细胞们逐渐成群结队了 最后它们彼此亲近,构成了多细胞组织 然后有了更复杂些的多细胞组织;这可以理解为社群的一种形式。
But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution. And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity. By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas. A lot of you have heard the term "memes." The evolution of technology, I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know, one of the first things you got was a little hand axe. Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick? (Laughter) Just absolutely delights the little ones. Next best thing to a video game.
某个时间点,某一个多细胞组织 发生了一些奇妙的事情 启动了一种全新的进化过程:文化进化。 更奇妙的是,这种进化所遵循的轨迹 与生物进化是一致的---越来越复杂 文化进化,是指思想的演化过程。 你们中的很多人都听说过“文化基因“这个词。 一直以来,我还很关注技术进化, 我们从一把小小的斧片开始, 代代相传,直到某人说,我们为什么不把斧片安在棍子上呢? (笑声) 这大大方便了那些个子比较矮的人。 另一个例子,电视游戏。
This may not seem to impress, but technological evolution is progressive, so another 10, 20,000 years, and armaments technology takes you here. (Laughter) Impressive. And the rate of technological evolution speeds up, so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK. (Laughter) And this. (Laughter) I'm sorry -- it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse, and I thought that might do it. (Applause)
看上去它好像没什么了不起的。 但是技术进化是一个持续的过程,所以过了一两万年, 到今天,我们拥有了强大的武器装备。 (笑声) 技术进化也是一个加速进化, 所以再过250年,我们有了这个。 (笑声) 还有这个。 (笑声) 不好意思--这个笑话很冷,我只是 想找到一种解释默示录的方法, 我以为讲些笑话能有些帮助。 (掌声)
So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse is the collapse of global social organization. Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are, to be on the brink of true global social organization. Originally, you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village. Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom, which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity with centralized rule. With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry. I kind of like that because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you how many levels organic organization has already moved through to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires.
当今世界社会体系的崩溃, 冥冥中预示着默示录的秘密 首先,我们来看看,世界上的社会体系 是如何演化到今天的样子的。 起初,是一个复杂的、靠狩猎与采集维生的村落。 然后是酋长社会,代表遗迹---巨石阵, 在酋长社会,出现了农业,这是一种 有中央集权的多村落群体制。 随着书写的发明,城市出现了。这个关系看上去有点牵强。但是我很喜欢, 整个过程就像刚才所讲的单细胞组织的进化过程, 有机体经过层层演化, 才成了今天的样子。接下来的,你们一定猜到,是帝国。
I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds. This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire. So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent, even if no polity did similarly. Today, you've got nation states. Point is: there's obviously collaboration and organization going on beyond national bounds. This is actually just a picture of the earth at night, and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty. Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system.
我必须强调一下,社会组织是不受政治界限约束的。 丝绸之路,贯通了古中国与古罗马帝国。 我们在整片亚欧大陆上看到了一致的社会属性, 即使政体不同。今天,有那么多国家, 但很显然,各种组织与合作蓬勃发展着, 超越了国界。 这张图片显示了深夜里地球的样子, 我认为它非常漂亮, 传递着一种整体感。
Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something called "non-zero sumness." Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly, the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations are inverse: always a winner and a loser. Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK. So like in tennis, usually it's win-lose; it always adds up to zero-zero-sum. But if you're playing doubles, the person on your side of the net, they're in the same boat as you, so you're playing a non-zero-sum game with them. It's either for the better or for the worse, OK. A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on in everyday life often leads to cooperation.
现在,我要用“非零和效应“ 来解释这类演化。 考虑到有些人可能没有看过阅读资料, 在零和博弈中,博弈者的关系是对立的: 一个赢家,一个输家。 而非零和博弈,这种关系可以是双赢的。 就像在网球赛中,通常是有输赢的, 比分总是零和的,但是在双打赛中, 你的搭档,与你站在同一战线, 因此你与你的搭档之间,是一种非零和游戏。 你们总是有福同享,有难同当。 在经济学领域,非零和博弈 往往会带来合作。
The argument I make is basically that, well, non-zero-sum games have always been part of life. You have them in hunter-gatherer societies, but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games, involving more people over larger territory. Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and to harness this productive potential, so you get cities, you know, and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don't think about that are being played across the world. Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car, how many people on how many different continents contributed to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect you're playing a non-zero-sum game with. I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around.
我想说的是, 非零和博弈始终是我们生活的一部分。 在人类采集狩猎的时代,就有非零和博弈。 然而随着技术进步,新的技术不断兴起, 促进了非零和博弈的发生。 参与其中的博弈者,其分布也越来越广。 为了适应这种可能性,社会的结构不断改变, 来保证我们有这样的生产潜力,所以出现了你所熟知的城市, 以及你所不熟知的非零和博弈, 你可能并未意识到非零和博弈在世界每个角落都在发生。 举个例子,当你买车的时候, 你有没有想过,有多少身处各大洲的人, 涉及了这辆车的制造过程?这些相关人士, 就是你进行非零和游戏的对象。 显然,他们人数众多。
Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way, because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win, you know, that's good. Well, there are a few reasons that actually it's not intrinsically upbeat. First of all, it can accommodate; it doesn't deny the existence of inequality exploitation war. But there's a more fundamental reason that it's not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game, all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse. It doesn't necessarily predict a win-win outcome.
某种程度上来讲,这实际上是一种非常j积极乐观的世界观, 因为当你提到零和时,你所考虑的是双赢的结果, 这很不错。不过,我也认为, 本质上,它也并不是那么令人乐观。 首先,它并没有否定 不平等的剥削战争的存在。 还有一个更深层的原因, 因为非零和博弈, 它只能保证结果要么是都好,要么是都坏, 它不能保证最后的结果是双赢的。
So, in a way, the question is: on what grounds am I upbeat at all about history? And the answer is, first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. On balance, I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department. And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me, most impresses me, and most uplifts me, which is that there is a moral dimension to history; there is a moral arrow. We have seen moral progress over time.
那么,我到底凭什么 对整个历史进程保持乐观的态度呢?答案如下, 第一,总的来说,我认为 人们总是能更多的得到双赢结果。 我认为历史进程,在非零和博弈里,净结果是正的。 对这个结论,有一个最令我惊异的实际证明, 它给我留下了深刻的印象,也非常激励我: 历史进程,本身包含了一个道德维度, 存在一个道德指向。可以看到,道德也是随着时间而发展的。
2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city-state considered members of another Greek city-state subhuman and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived, and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings. It's just the Persians who aren't fully human and don't deserve to be treated very nicely.
2500年钱,希腊城邦里的人, 认为其他希腊城邦里的人,都是次等人, 用对待此等人的方式对待他们。随着道德革命的开始, 他们改变了主意,所有的希腊人都是人类。 只有波斯人是次等人, 不应该对他们太好了,
But this was progress -- you know, give them credit. And now today, we've seen more progress. I think -- I hope -- most people here would say that all people everywhere are human beings, deserve to be treated decently, unless they do something horrendous, regardless of race or religion. And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been, OK. This was not a prevalent view, few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic. I think that's the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities, ethnicities, religions as there is today. If you asked me, you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan, well, I'm only half-joking when I say they built my car. We have this non-zero-sum relationship, and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize that someone else's welfare is positively correlated with yours -- you're more likely to cut them a break.
但这至少是个进步--呵呵,给希腊人一个小表扬。今天, 这个进步就更大了。我认为--我也希望--在座的大部分人, 都会承认,世界各地的人都是同类, 所有人都应该被平等对待, 除非他们做了令人厌恶的事情,不论什么种族什么宗教。 你应该去读读古代史,然后才能明白这是怎样一个革命。 这个观点并未被广泛接受, 我认为正式因为非零和效应,几千年前的人类, 就学会了包容国籍、 种族和宗教方面的差异,这与现在的情况无异。如果你问我, 为什么我不支持向日本投放原子弹, 如果我说那是因为日本人造了我的车,那是半开玩笑的。 我们之间存在一种非零和关系, 我认为,这种关系确实促进我们彼此包容, 因为其他人的福利确实与你的福利正相关。 你可能更愿意给他们一个机会。
I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality. Unfortunately, I don't fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough to know, or any other kind of business class really, but I assume that in business class, you don't hear many expressions of, you know, bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups, because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class are doing business with all these people; they're making money off all these people. And I really do think that, in that sense at least, capitalism has been a constructive force, and more fundamentally, it's a non-zero-sumness that has been a constructive force in expanding people's realm of moral awareness. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic, which is not only economic by any means -- it's not always commerce -- but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth, which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that. As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization, it has driven us toward moral truth. I think that's wonderful.
我想这是一种商务仓的道德准则。 不幸的是,我不常坐trans-Atlantics公司的商务仓, 也真不太了解其他航空公司的商务仓了。 我暂且认定,在商务仓,你不会听到太多 关于种族的偏执言论, 因为坐商务仓的人, 与各种各样的人进行交易; 他们只想从这些人手里赚钱。因此我认为,至少在这个层面, 资本主义是一股有助益的力量, 它是非零纯和的, 它帮助人们扩张了 道德意识的领域。我认为非零和机制, 不只是说经济--任何事都不能只归到经济利益-- 非零和机制带领我们逼近了道德真相的边缘, 那就是人人平等。 当我们进入一个全球层面的社会机构, 我们必须面对道德真相。 这太棒了。
Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse. And you may wonder, OK, that's all fine, sounds great -- moral direction in history -- but what about this so-called clash of civilizations? Well, first of all, I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework, OK. If you look at the relationship between the so-called Muslim world and Western world -- two terms I don't like, but can't really avoid; in such a short span of time, they're efficient if nothing else -- it is non-zero-sum. And by that I mean, if people in the Muslim world get more hateful, more resentful, less happy with their place in the world, it'll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it'll be good for the West. So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic.
现在,回到那本未开启的启示录。 好吧,你可能会好奇, 听起来不错--历史的道德维度-- 但是怎么解释那些不同文明之间的冲突?首先, 我要强调一下,这些冲突的发生也是符合非零和机制的, 如果我们仔细看看 所谓的穆斯林世界与西方世界的关系-- 这两个词是我不喜欢用的,但是又无法避免使用它们-- 在这么短的时间内,没什么比这两个词更高效了。 这个关系是非零和的。我是说, 如果穆斯林世界的人怀着更多的敌意、更多的憎恨, 对他们在世界上的位置更不满意, 这对西方世界来说,也是不利的。反之,如果他们更快乐,对西方世界也是有益处的。 所以这是一种非零和机制。
And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time because of technological trends, but more intense in a kind of negative way. It's the downside correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible. And one reason is because of something I call the "growing lethality of hatred." More and more, it's possible for grassroots hatred abroad to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil. And that's pretty new, and I think it's probably going to get a lot worse -- this capacity -- because of trends in information technology, in technologies that can be used for purposes of munitions like biotechnology and nanotechnology. We may be hearing more about that today.
这种机制,会因为科技的发展趋势, 这种非零和机制,会向负面方向进行的越来越激烈。 他们未来的命运,将越来越可能呈现负面的相关性。 我称其为憎恨的破坏性积累效应。 基层草根很有可能以在美国发动更频繁的、有组织的暴力 来发泄他们对异族的强烈憎恨。 我认为这种状况很有可能继续恶化, --我之所以这么说-- 是因为信息技术的迅猛发展, 生物技术和纳米技术也正在更多地被运用在军火上。 我们时常能听到新技术在军事上的新应用。
And there's something I worry about especially, which is that this dynamic will lead to a kind of a feedback cycle that puts us on a slippery slope. What I have in mind is: terrorism happens here; we overreact to it. That, you know, we're not sufficiently surgical in our retaliation leads to more hatred abroad, more terrorism. We overreact because being human, we feel like retaliating, and it gets worse and worse and worse. You could call this the positive feedback of negative vibes, but I think in something so spooky, we really shouldn't have the word positive there at all, even in a technical sense. So let's call it the death spiral of negativity. (Laughter) I assure you if it happens, at the end, both the West and the Muslim world will have suffered.
我尤其忧虑的是, 这种动态变化会导致一种回馈循环,逼迫我们走上陡坡。 我的想法是:恐怖主义已经发生了;我们的反应过于激烈。 我们对于恐怖主义的复仇,并不是那么理智, 这只会让外族更憎恨我们,导致更猖狂的恐怖主义。 当我们感到被憎恨时,我们的反应会更加激烈,这是人的本性, 这是一种恶性循环。 你可以称之为负面情绪的正向反馈效应, 这在我看来非常可怕, 我们甚至不该使用“正向”这个词,即使只是术语的表达。 所以让我们称之为负面情绪的死亡螺旋效应。 (笑声) 我敢说,一旦这个效应开始作用,到头来, 西方世界和穆斯林世界都要受罪。
So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms control, the international regulation of dangerous technologies. I have a whole global governance sermon that I will spare you right now, because I don't think that's going to be enough anyway, although it's essential. I think we're going to have to have a major round of moral progress in the world. I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among groups, less bigotry, and, you know, racial groups, religious groups, whatever. I've got to admit I feel silly saying that. It sounds so kind of Pollyannaish. I feel like Rodney King, you know, saying, why can't we all just get along? But hey, I don't really see any alternative, given the way I read the situation. There's going to have to be moral progress. There's going to have to be a lessening of the amount of hatred in the world, given how dangerous it's becoming. In my defense, I'd say, as naive as this may sound, it's ultimately grounded in cynicism.
所以我们到底该怎么办?首先,我们要做的远远不只是武装控制, 或者什么对威胁性技术的国际公约。 我想给你们讲一大堆道理, 讲讲整个地球该怎么治理, 虽然我其实觉得怎么讲都不嫌多,这还是很有必要的。 我认为, 一轮新的道德进化即将开始。 我认为,不同群体---不同的种族、宗教,任何有差异的群体, 他们之间的厌恶会减少,偏执的行为会减少, 好吧我必须承认当我这么说时,我也觉得自己很傻。 听起来我好像在盲目乐观,好像罗德尼 金当年说, 我们为什么就不能一起混? 但是,就我目前的处境看,我没有其他选择了。 道德进化一定要发生。 整个世界上弥漫的仇恨一定要减少, 因为现在这个世界是如此岌岌可危。 尽管听起来很无知,但我还是要维护自己一下, 即使一大堆冷嘲热讽依然存在。
That is to say -- (Laughter) -- thank you, thank you. That is to say, remember: my whole view of morality is that it boils down to self-interest. It's when people's fortunes are correlated. It's when your welfare conduces to mine, that I decide, oh yeah, I'm all in favor of your welfare. That's what's responsible for this growth of this moral progress so far, and I'm saying we once again have a correlation of fortunes, and if people respond to it intelligently, we will see the development of tolerance and so on -- the norms that we need, you know. We will see the further evolution of this kind of business-class morality.
也就是说-- (笑声) --谢谢,谢谢。也就是说,请记住: 我讲所有的道德,都归结于自我利益。 当人们的命运彼此相连, 当你的福利也能带给我福利,那么行呀, 我绝对为你的福利着想。 这个就是道德进步的源动力。 我再强调一遍,我们的命运紧紧相连。 如果人们采取明智的回应, 我们将看到更多的包容,以及 其他我们所需要的东西。 我们讲看到此类公务舱道德的再次进化。
So, these two things, you know, if they get people's attention and drive home the positive correlation and people do what's in their self-interests, which is further the moral evolution, then they could actually have a constructive effect. And that's why I lump growing lethality of hatred and death spiral of negativity under the general rubric, reasons to be cheerful. (Laughter) Doing the best I can, OK. (Laughter) I never called myself Mr. Uplift. I'm just doing what I can here. (Laughter)
所以这两个方面--人们注意到并且认可这种正相关性, 并且他们从自己的利益出发-- 促成了道德的进一步发展, 那么,可以看到一些建设性作用。 这就是我为什么把“增强的憎恨的破坏性效应“ 和“负面效应的死亡螺旋效应“放在一个大标题下: 这值得高兴。 (笑声) 我已经很尽力了,好嘛。 (笑声) 我从来不叫自己“乐观先生”。 我确实很尽力了。 (笑声)
Now, launching a moral revolution has got to be hard, right? I mean, what do you do? And I think the answer is a lot of different people are going to have to do a lot of different things. We all start where we are. Speaking as an American who has children whose security 10, 20, 30 years down the road I worry about -- what I personally want to start out doing is figuring out why so many people around the world hate us, OK. I think that's a worthy research project myself. I also like it because it's an intrinsically kind of morally redeeming exercise. Because to understand why somebody in a very different culture does something -- somebody you're kind of viewing as alien, who's doing things you consider strange in a culture you consider strange -- to really understand why they do the things they do is a morally redeeming accomplishment, because you've got to relate their experience to yours. To really understand it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it. So when they feel resentful, it's kind of like the way I feel resentful when this happens, and for somewhat the same reasons." That's true understanding. And I think that is an expansion of your moral compass when you manage to do that.
好吧,道德进化的展开,确实是非常困难的,对吧? 你们要怎么做? 我的回答是, 我们所有人各尽其责。 我们就从眼下开始。作为一个美国人, 我们的孩子有10年,20年,30年的保障, 我的忧虑在于--我个人设定的起点-- 是想清楚为什么这个世界上,有这么多人讨厌我们。 我个人认为这是个很值得研究的课题。 基本上,这也可以算做一个道德拯救的小练习。 因为要弄理解那些 不同文化背景的人所做的事-- 这些人对你来说简直就是外星人-- 他们的所作所为在你看来奇怪极了, 在这样一个奇怪的文化背景下,真正能理解他们, 是一个道德救赎方面的大成就, 你必须把他们的经历与你的联系起来, 才能真正明白,才能说,“啊,我懂了。 因此当他们感到愤恨时, 我似乎也能感到愤恨, 出于完全一致的理由。“这才是真正的理解。 我认为,你应该把这种理解,添加到你的道德范畴中。
It's especially hard to do when people hate you, OK, because you don't really, in a sense, want to completely understand why people hate you. I mean, you want to hear the reason, but you don't want to be able to relate to it. You don't want it to make sense, right? (Laughter) You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand how a human being in those circumstances would hate the country I live in." That's not a pleasant thing, but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and
当对方憎恨你时,这变的尤其困难了,对吧, 因为确实没有人会愿意, 去完整地搞清楚为什么有人憎恨你。 我是说,你当然想知道原因,但是你不会愿意把前后两者联系起来。 你不想承认这个因果关系,对吗? 你不想说,“好吧好吧,我明白了, 为什么一个处于那种环境下的人, 会讨厌我所在的国家。”这毕竟是件别扭的事情, 但我想我们不得不渐渐去适应。
work on. Now, I want to stress that to understand, you know -- there are people who don't like this whole business of understanding the grassroots, the root causes of things; they don't want to know why people hate us. I want to understand it. The reason you're trying to understand why they hate us, is to get them to quit hating us. The idea when you go through this moral exercise of really coming to appreciate their humanity and better understand them, is part of an effort to get them to appreciate your humanity in the long run. I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term goal.
我想强调一下,之所以, 某些人并不喜欢我这一整套理解草根的玩意儿, 根本原因是:他们不想知道 为什么人们讨厌我们。但是我想了解。 只有弄明白他们为什么讨厌我们, 我们才能让他们不再讨厌我们,对吧。 当我们通过这种道德反思,去真正体谅 他们的人性,去更理解他们, 他们才能更体谅我们的想法。 这是第一步。这是个需要长期努力才能实现的目标。
There are people who worry about this, and in fact, I, myself, apparently, was denounced on national TV a couple of nights ago because of an op-ed I'd written. It was kind of along these lines, and the allegation was that I have, quote, "affection for terrorists." Now, the good news is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter. (Laughter) (Applause) I mean, if you've got to have an enemy, do make it Ann Coulter. (Laughter) But it's not a crazy concern, OK, because understanding behavior can lead to a kind of empathy, and it can make it a little harder to deliver tough love, and so on. But I think we're a lot closer to erring on the side of not comprehending the situation clearly enough, than in comprehending it so clearly that we just can't, you know, get the army out to kill terrorists.
有些人有顾虑,大家都知道, 就几天前,我在国家电视台上被公开指责, 起因是我在专栏里所写的东西。 我所写的字句,被指控为, 引用他们的话,“对恐怖主义的感情。” 好消息是,至少念出这个指控的人是安妮库尔特。 (笑声) (掌声) 如果你一定要树个敌,那么就找安妮库尔特吧。 (笑声) 他们不是杞人忧天。 尝试理解恐怖主义,引起了某种共鸣, 使得传达这种纠结的情感变得更为困难。 但我也认为,选择不去理解,会是个更大的错误, 情况已经很清楚了, 我们不能再让士兵去杀害恐怖分子了。
So I'm not really worried about it. So -- (Laughter) -- I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts, but if we succeed -- if we succeed -- then once again, non-zero-sumness and the recognition of non-zero-sum dynamics will have forced us to a higher moral level. And a kind of saving higher moral level, something that kind of literally saves the world. If you look at the word "salvation" in the Bible -- the Christian usage that we're familiar with -- saving souls, that people go to heaven -- that's actually a latecomer. The original meaning of the word "salvation" in the Bible is about saving the social system. "Yahweh is our Savior" means "He has saved the nation of Israel," which at the time, was a pretty high-level social organization.
我并不真在乎这个问题。所以-- (笑声) --我是说,我们必须再采取些更直接更勇敢的措施, 一旦我们成功了--那么, 非零和效应将再一次被认可,非零和机制将再一次被接受, 我们的道德水准无疑将进入新的水平。 某种意义上的,拯救性的,更高的道德水准, 可以拯救世界。 如果你看看圣经里的“救赎”这个词-- 我们已很熟悉它在基督教中的用法-- 拯救灵魂,带人们上天堂--这其实是后人给的解释了。 救赎在圣经里最原始的意思是,拯救社会系统。 “耶和华是我们的救世主,”是指“他拯救了以色列人的国,” 那个时候,以色列已经是个很高级的社会组织了。
Now, social organization has reached the global level, and I guess, if there's good news I can say I'm bringing you, it's just that all the salvation of the world requires is the intelligent pursuit of self-interests in a disciplined and careful way. It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot anyway because we've just come too far to screw it up now. Thanks. (Applause)
现在,整个地球都是一个社会组织,所以我猜想, 如果我说我能带给你们什么好消息的话, 只要以规范而谨慎的方式,明智地追求自我利益, 就能拯救这个世界。 这很难。但我们无论如何要试试看, 因为如今我们已无法回头。 谢谢。 (掌声)