In System D, this is a store, and what I mean by that is that this is a photograph I took in Makoko, shantytown in Lagos, Nigeria. It's built over the lagoon, and there are no streets where there can be stores to shop, and so the store comes to you.
在「D體系」的世界裡 這是間商店 而我要說的是,這張照片 是我在奈及利亞,拉哥斯的馬可可貧民窟(Makoko)拍的 商店位於潟湖的上方,那裡沒有街道 也就沒有商店可逛 因此流動攤販就這麼出現了
And in the same community, this is business synergy. This is the boat that that lady was paddling around in, and this artisan makes the boat and the paddles and sells directly to the people who need the boat and the paddles.
在同一個社區中 有所謂的企業合作 這艘小船是剛剛那位小販的 這位是製作船和槳的工匠 現做現賣 給需要的人
And this is a global business. Ogandiro smokes fish in Makoko in Lagos, and I asked her, "Where does the fish come from?" And I thought she'd say, "Oh, you know, up the lagoon somewhere, or maybe across Africa," but you'll be happy to know she said it came from here, it comes from the North Sea. It's caught here, frozen, shipped down to Lagos, smoked, and sold for a tiny increment of profit on the streets of Lagos.
這是個跨國生意 小販歐甘狄羅(Ogandiro)在拉哥斯的馬可可賣燻魚 我問她「這些魚是哪來的?」 我猜她應該會說,「噢,這個啊...」 「就在這潟湖裡,要不就非洲」 不過你會很高興聽到她說 魚是從我們這裡,北海來的 在北海捕撈,冷凍,再運到拉哥斯 煙燻料理後再以微薄利潤 賣到拉哥斯的街頭
And this is a business incubator. This is Olusosun dump, the largest garbage dump in Lagos, and 2,000 people work here, and I found this out from this fellow, Andrew Saboru. Andrew spent 16 years scavenging materials on the dump, earned enough money to turn himself into a contract scaler, which meant he carried a scale and went around and weighed all the materials that people had scavenged from the dump. Now he's a scrap dealer. That's his little depot behind him, and he earns twice the Nigerian minimum wage.
這是那兒的企業創新育成中心 奧盧梭森(Olusosun),拉哥斯最大的垃圾場 有2000多人在這討生活 這是安德魯‧薩布魯(Andrew Saboru)跟我說的 安德魯在這拾荒了16年 他賺了錢,成了約聘秤重員 也就是說,他得帶著磅秤到處跑 測量大家撿來的東西有多重 現在的他則是廢棄回收物商 在他身後的是他的小倉庫 他的薪水為奈及利亞最低薪資的2倍
This is a shopping mall. This is Oshodi Market in Lagos. Jorge Luis Borges had a story called "The Aleph," and the Aleph is a point in the world where absolutely everything exists, and for me, this image is a point in the world where absolutely everything exists.
這是他們的購物中心 位於拉哥斯的奧修地市場(Oshodi Market) 博爾赫斯(Jorge Luis Borges)有部作品叫「阿萊斯」(The Aleph) 「阿萊斯」是世界的上一個小小的點 卻無奇不有 對我而言,這畫面就好比是「阿萊斯」 什麼都有,是世界的縮影
So, what am I talking about when I talk about System D? It's traditionally called the informal economy, the underground economy, the black market. I don't conceive of it that way. I think it's really important to understand that something like this is totally open. It's right there for you to find. All of this is happening openly, and aboveboard. There's nothing underground about it. It's our prejudgment that it's underground.
而當談到「D體系」時,該講些什麼呢? 他正式的說法是非法經濟 地下經濟或黑市 我無法想像這種模式 但我認為這非常重要,必須得去理解這個情況 畢竟黑市就大剌剌的擺在眼前,等著你去探索 沒有任何遮掩,完全赤裸地公開 根本沒有地下不地下這回事 那只是我們的刻板印象
I've pirated the term System D from the former French colonies. There's a word in French that is débrouillardise, that means to be self-reliant, and the former French colonies have turned that into System D for the economy of self-reliance, or the DIY economy.
我從前法國殖民地那借用了「D體系」這個詞 法文有個單字是débrouillardise 即自力更生的意思 後來前法國殖民地把這個字變成「D體系」 用來表示他們自助式的經濟方式 或稱DIY經濟
But governments hate the DIY economy, and that's why -- I took this picture in 2007, and this is the same market in 2009 -- and I think, when the organizers of this conference were talking about radical openness, they didn't mean that the streets should be open and the people should be gone.
但是政府痛恨DIY經濟 這就是為什麼我在2007年拍了這張照片 同一個市場在2009年卻變了樣 我相信,這場演講的策畫人 在討論到「極端開放」之時 並不會把街道清空 或驅散民眾
I think what we have is a pickle problem. I had a friend who worked at a pickle factory, and the cucumbers would come flying down this conveyer belt, and his job was to pick off the ones that didn't look so good and throw them in the bin labeled "relish" where they'd be crushed and mixed with vinegar and used for other kinds of profit. This is the pickle economy. We're all focusing on — this is a statistic from earlier this month in the Financial Times — we're all focusing on the luxury economy. It's worth 1.5 trillion dollars every year, and that's a vast amount of money, right? That's three times the Gross Domestic Product of Switzerland. So it's vast. But it should come with an asterisk, and the asterisk is that it excludes two thirds of the workers of the world. 1.8 billion people around the world work in the economy that is unregulated and informal. That's a huge number, and what does that mean? Well, it means if it were united in a single political system, one country, call it "The United Street Sellers Republic," the U.S.S.R., or "Bazaaristan," it would be worth 10 trillion dollars every year, and that would make it the second largest economy in the world, after the United States. And given that projections are that the bulk of economic growth over the next 15 years will come from emerging economies in the developing world, it could easily overtake the United States and become the largest economy in the world.
我想我們面對的是醃菜問題 我有個朋友曾在醃菜工廠上班 有些小黃瓜會被丟出輸送帶 他的工作就是去撿那些小黃瓜 把賣相不好的小黃瓜丟進標有「可口」字樣的籃子裡 再被送去攪碎、用醋調和 當作其他商品販售 這就是醃菜的獲利方式 但我們都只關注數據 月初在金融時報中的數據 只關注大型的經濟活動 這每年可值1.5兆美元 相當龐大的數字,是吧? 相當於瑞士GDP的3倍 的確是一塊大餅,但我們應該給它標記一下 這個大餅把3分之2的工作者排除在外 全世界的工作者 全球18億人是在 沒有規範、非法的情況下工作 這個驚人的數字又意味著什麼? 這代表著,如果把這些人集結為單一政治體系 變成一個國家 稱為「攤販聯盟共和國」,簡稱U.S.S.R. 或「市集斯坦」 那每年將值10兆美元 甚至會是全球第二大經濟體 僅次於美國 而從未來15年,開發中國家新興經濟體 龐大的經濟成長規模 可以預測得到 美國被取代是早晚的是 地下經濟將成為最大經濟體
So the implications of that are vast, because it means that this is where employment is — 1.8 billion people — and this is where we can create a more egalitarian world, because people are actually able to earn money and live and thrive, as Andrew Saboru did.
言外之意是,這是不容小覷的 因為這就是勞動力的來源,18億人口 我們甚至能創造更平等的世界 因為大家是真的為了討生活而賺錢 接著繁榮起來,就像安德魯的例子一樣。
Big businesses have recognized this, and what's fascinating about this slide, it's not that the guys can carry boxes on their heads and run around without dropping them off. it's that the Gala sausage roll is a product that's made by a global company called UAC foods that's active throughout Africa and the Middle East, but the Gala sausage roll is not sold in stores. UAC foods has recognized that it won't sell if it's in stores. It's only sold by a phalanx of street hawkers who run around the streets of Lagos at bus stations and in traffic jams and sell it as a snack, and it's been sold that way for 40 years. It's a business plan for a corporation.
商人很清楚這點 在這張幻燈片裡令人驚訝的 並非是有人可以用頭頂著箱子 跑東跑西還可穩如泰山 令人眼睛為之一亮的是那裡頭的Gala牌的臘腸捲 是由跨國食品公司UAC生產的 在非洲和中東都有這家公司的蹤影 不過在店裡可是買不到Gala臘腸捲的 UAC公司發現臘腸捲擺在裡是賣不掉的 大家只到街頭攤販那買 小販會把臘腸當作點心,在拉哥斯靠公車站的街道上 或在塞車的時候奔走叫賣 這樣的販賣方式已經持續40年了 這對公司來說是商業策略
And it's not just in Africa. Here's Mr. Clean looking amorously at all the other Procter & Gamble products, and Procter & Gamble, you know, the statistic always cited is that Wal-Mart is their largest customer, and it's true, as one store, Wal-Mart buys 15 percent, thus 15 percent of Procter & Gamble's business is with Wal-Mart, but their largest market segment is something that they call "high frequency stores," which is all these tiny kiosks and the lady in the canoe and all these other businesses that exist in System D, the informal economy, and Procter & Gamble makes 20 percent of its money from that market segment, and it's the only market segment that's growing. So Procter & Gamble says, "We don't care whether a store is incorporated or registered or anything like that. We want our products in that store."
這不單是在非洲 這是寶僑清潔品牌「清潔先生」 和其他寶僑的產品 一說到寶僑 數據總是會說沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart) 是寶僑的頭號大客戶,以一家店的規模來看這沒有錯 有15%由沃爾瑪買單,也就是說 寶僑在生意上有15%是和沃爾瑪合作的 但是他們最大市場區是他們所謂的「高頻率商店」 指的就是一些小販售亭 一個亭子配一個店員,其他類似的經營手法 就和地下經濟「D體系」的情況一樣 而寶僑在這樣的市場區裡 獲利了20% 那也是唯一正成長的市場區 寶僑還說:「我們不考慮商店是否有合法登記 之類的問題 我們只想要貨品在店裡上架」
And then there's mobile phones. This is an ad for MTN, which is a South African multinational active in about 25 countries, and when they came into Nigeria — Nigeria is the big dog in Africa. One in seven Africans is a Nigerian, and so everyone wants in to the mobile phone market in Nigeria. And when MTN came in, they wanted to sell the mobile service like I get in the United States or like people get here in the U.K. or in Europe -- expensive monthly plans, you get a phone, you pay overages, you're killed with fees -- and their plan crashed and burned. And they went back to the drawing board, and they retooled, and they came up with another plan: We don't sell you the phone, we don't sell you the monthly plan. We only sell you airtime. And where's the airtime sold? It's sold at umbrella stands all over the streets, where people are unregistered, unlicensed, but MTN makes most of its profits, perhaps 90 percent of its profits, from selling through System D, the informal economy.
在來是手機 這是MTN電信的廣告 一家南非的跨國電信公司 觸角遍及約25國 當他們進入奈及利亞市場 奈及利亞在非洲是個金礦 7個非洲人中有1個就是奈及利亞人 大家都想打進奈及利亞的手機市場 MTN電信進駐後,想用在美國的一樣方案 兜售電信服務 或像大家在英國或歐洲那樣的方案 付昂貴的月費後有了手機 接著完全超支 整個人被淹沒在帳單堆中 電信公司推出的方案觸礁失敗 因此他們重新規劃,改良方案 最後推出了新的方案 不賣手機 也沒有月費方案 只收通話費 那通話時間要上哪買呢? 就在街頭巷尾隨處可見的陽傘下 沒有人是合法登記或持照的 但卻幫MTN電信賺了大把鈔票 公司大概有90%的利潤 是來自「D體系」,所謂的地下經濟
And where do the phones come from? Well, they come from here. This is in Guangzhou, China, and if you go upstairs in this rather sleepy looking electronics mall, you find the Guangzhou Dashatou second-hand trade center, and if you go in there, you follow the guys with the muscles who are carrying the boxes, and where are they going? They're going to Eddy in Lagos. Now, most of the phones there are not second-hand at all. The name is a misnomer. Most of them are pirated. They have the name brand on them, but they're not manufactured by the name brand.
那麼手機又是哪來的呢? 這兒,這是中國的廣州 如果你走到這間看似死氣沉沉電子商場的樓上 你會看到「廣州大沙頭」 二手交易中心 如果你走進來逛逛,跟著身材壯碩 搬著箱子的人走,會通到哪呢? 拉哥斯的艾迪那兒 大部分的手機並非二手貨 大家會錯意了 大多是山寨機,上頭有牌子 但並非出自原廠
Now, are there downsides to that? Well, I guess. You know, China has no — (Laughter) — no intellectual property, right? Versace without the vowels. Zhuomani instead of Armani. S. Guuuci, and -- (Laughter) (Applause) All around the world this is how products are being distributed, so, for instance, in one street market on Rua 25 de Março in São Paulo, Brazil, you can buy fake designer glasses. You can buy cloned cologne. You can buy pirated DVDs, of course. You can buy New York Yankees caps in all sorts of unauthorized patterns. You can buy cuecas baratas, designer underwear that isn't really manufactured by a designer, and even pirated evangelical mixtapes. (Laughter)
那麼,這樣做會不會有問題呢? 我想,在中國... 是沒有智慧財產權的,對吧? 少了幾個字母的凡爾賽斯(Versace) 亞曼尼(Armani)變成卓瑪妮 這是S.古烏...烏馳... 全世界都是如此 這就是產品批發的過程,舉例來說 在巴西聖保羅 的25街( Rua 25 de Março)上 你可以買到盜版的名牌太陽眼鏡 盜版古龍水 當然也有盜版光碟 紐約洋基隊棒球帽 名牌仿冒品隨處可見 還有廉價的名牌內褲 也非出自原廠之手 甚至還有基督教的聖樂合集
Now, businesses tend to complain about this, and their, they, I don't want to take away from their entire validity of complaining about it, but I did ask a major sneaker manufacturer earlier this year what they thought about piracy, and they told me, "Well, you can't quote me on this, because if you quote me on this, I have to kill you," but they use piracy as market research. The sneaker manufacturer told me that if they find that Pumas are being pirated, or Adidas are being pirated and their sneakers aren't being pirated, they know they've done something wrong. (Laughter) So it's very important to them to track piracy exactly because of this, and the people who are buying, the pirates, are not their customers anyway, because their customers want the real deal.
現在,商人們開始抱怨了 他們...我不想質疑 他們抱怨的正確性 但我在年初的時候,的確有問一家運動鞋大廠 問問他們對盜版的看法 他們說:「這個嘛,你可不能說是我說的... 要不然我得殺你滅口」 他們把盜版視為市場調查的一部分 運動鞋製造商告訴我 如果他們發現Puma或Adidas被人仿冒 自己出產的鞋子卻沒被盜版商抄襲 他們就會知道大事不妙了 (笑聲) 所以盜版方面的消息他們來說是很重要的 而掏腰包買盜版商品人 也不屬於他們的客群 因為他們的買家想要的是正版商品
Now, there's another problem. This is a real street sign in Lagos, Nigeria. All of System D really doesn't pay taxes, right? And when I think about that, first of all I think that government is a social contract between the people and the government, and if the government isn't transparent, then the people aren't going to be transparent either, but also that we're blaming the little guy who doesn't pay his taxes, and we're not recognizing that everyone's fudging things all over the world, including some extremely respected businesses, and I'll give you one example. There was one company that paid 4,000 bribes in the first decade of this millennium, and a million dollars in bribes every business day, right? All over the world. And that company was the big German electronics giant Siemens. So this goes on in the formal economy as well as the informal economy, so it's wrong of us to blame — and I'm not singling out Siemens, I'm saying everyone does it. Okay?
現在,另一個問題出現了 這是奈及利亞的拉哥斯,路標上就寫著「落實納稅」 顯然「D體系」的人沒在繳稅的,是吧? 當我思考這問題時,我第一個想到的是 政府扮演的是他和人民間「社會契約」的角色 如果政府辦事不夠透明 人民當然就有樣學樣 但是我們卻用放大鏡再看那些 不繳稅的少數人上,我們沒意識到的是 騙術戲碼在世界各地都上演著 甚至包括一些受人敬重的大企業 我這就有一個例子 有個公司行賄量達到了4000筆 就發生在2000~2010年間 每天花一百萬美元行賄,對吧? 全球各地都一樣,這家大公司 就是德國電子大廠西門子 這就在我們所謂的合法經濟上真實上演 當然在地下經濟的世界也不例外 因此,怪罪地下經濟是不對的;我並非針對西門子 我的意思的是大家都這麼做
I just want to end by saying that if Adam Smith had framed out a theory of the flea market instead of the free market, what would be some of the principles?
我想以亞當‧斯密(Adam Smith)作的例子為結語 如果他的理論為跳蚤市場畫出了藍圖 而非構想中的自由市場 這些原則代表了什麼?
First, it would be to understand that it could be considered a cooperative, and this is a thought from the Brazilian legal scholar Roberto Mangabeira Unger. Cooperative development is a way forward.
首先得要了解到 這是巴西法學家 羅貝多‧溫格(Roberto Mangabeira Unger)的構想 合作開發是條康莊大道
Secondly, from the [Austrian] anarchist philosopher Paul Feyerabend, facts are relative, and what is a massive right of self-reliance to a Nigerian businessperson is considered unauthorized and horrible to other people, and we have to recognize that there are differences in how people define things and what their facts are.
第二,奧地利無政府主義哲學家保羅‧費耶阿本德(Paul Feyerabend) 認為 事實是相對應的,而奈及利亞商人 他們自助性的經濟 對其他人而言是不好、非法的 我們必須承認,差異一直都存在於 人們定義事情的方式和事情本身的事實之間
And third is, and I'm taking this from the great American beat poet Allen Ginsberg, that alternate economies barter and different kinds of currency, alternate currencies are also very important, and he talked about buying what he needed just with his good looks.
第三,是我從垮掉派美國詩人 艾倫‧金斯堡(Allen Ginsberg)那引用的 另類經濟世界中的以物易物 不同類型的貨幣、替代貨幣 都是很重要的,他還談到 他用他充滿魅力的外表就能買到想要的東西
And so I just want to leave you there, and say that this economy is a tremendous force for global development and we need to think about it that way. Thank you very much. (Applause) (Applause)
我就不再多話,讓你們想想 地下經濟對全球的發展來說是顆強而有力的引擎 我們得改變對它的刻板印象 謝謝大家 (掌聲)