In System D, this is a store, and what I mean by that is that this is a photograph I took in Makoko, shantytown in Lagos, Nigeria. It's built over the lagoon, and there are no streets where there can be stores to shop, and so the store comes to you.
在D系统中,这是 其中一个商店 我想说的是这是我在尼日利亚Lagos市 的一个叫Makoko的贫民区拍的照片。 它是沿着环礁湖而建的,而且没有一条街道 有商店可以给你购物, 所以”商店“会主动来找你。
And in the same community, this is business synergy. This is the boat that that lady was paddling around in, and this artisan makes the boat and the paddles and sells directly to the people who need the boat and the paddles.
在这样一个社区里, 这就是商业协同效应。 这是那位女士在划的船, 而这位工匠制造船和桨 然后直接卖给 需要船和桨的人。
And this is a global business. Ogandiro smokes fish in Makoko in Lagos, and I asked her, "Where does the fish come from?" And I thought she'd say, "Oh, you know, up the lagoon somewhere, or maybe across Africa," but you'll be happy to know she said it came from here, it comes from the North Sea. It's caught here, frozen, shipped down to Lagos, smoked, and sold for a tiny increment of profit on the streets of Lagos.
这是一种全球性的经营模式。 在Lagos市的Makoko镇里,Ogandiro以熏鱼营生 我问她:“你们从哪里弄来的鱼啊?” 我以为她会说,:“噢, 某个环礁湖那弄上来的,或许在非洲的另一边”, 但有意思的是她说 就是这儿的,北海来的。 从这里捕捞,冷冻,然后运送到Lagos, 熏好后,再在Lagos的街道上 赚一点点钱。
And this is a business incubator. This is Olusosun dump, the largest garbage dump in Lagos, and 2,000 people work here, and I found this out from this fellow, Andrew Saboru. Andrew spent 16 years scavenging materials on the dump, earned enough money to turn himself into a contract scaler, which meant he carried a scale and went around and weighed all the materials that people had scavenged from the dump. Now he's a scrap dealer. That's his little depot behind him, and he earns twice the Nigerian minimum wage.
这算得上是一个商业培养基地了。 这是Olusosun垃圾场,Lagos最大的垃圾场, 有2000号人在这里工作,这我是通过 Andrew Saboru了解到的。 Andrew花了16年的时间在这个垃圾堆寻找各种材料, 赚了足够多的钱,能够自己做合同商, 就是他带着一杆秤,然后到处 去称量人们从垃圾堆中寻找到的各种材料 现在他是个废旧金属的经销商。 这后面是他的小仓库, 他的收入是尼日尼亚最低收入的两倍。
This is a shopping mall. This is Oshodi Market in Lagos. Jorge Luis Borges had a story called "The Aleph," and the Aleph is a point in the world where absolutely everything exists, and for me, this image is a point in the world where absolutely everything exists.
这是一个购物中心。 这是在Lagos的Oshodi市场。 Jorge Luis Borges有一个叫“The Aleph”的故事, Aleph是世界上的某一点 那里有世界上所有的事物, 对我来说,这幅图就是这么一个点 应有尽有。
So, what am I talking about when I talk about System D? It's traditionally called the informal economy, the underground economy, the black market. I don't conceive of it that way. I think it's really important to understand that something like this is totally open. It's right there for you to find. All of this is happening openly, and aboveboard. There's nothing underground about it. It's our prejudgment that it's underground.
因此,我在说D系统的时候,我指的是什么呢? 通常它是叫做非正规经济, 地下经济,黑市。 我不那么觉得。 我觉得这种东西是完全开放的, 这一点很重要。它就在那里,等你去发现。 所有这一切都是公开进行的,在地面上。 根本没有什么地下的东西。 所谓地下,是我们的偏见。
I've pirated the term System D from the former French colonies. There's a word in French that is débrouillardise, that means to be self-reliant, and the former French colonies have turned that into System D for the economy of self-reliance, or the DIY economy.
我从前法国殖民地借用了“D系统”这个术语。 在法语中有一个词是débrouillardise, 意思是独立的, 所以以前的法国殖民地就将D系统 描述为独立的经济, 或者说DIY经济系统。
But governments hate the DIY economy, and that's why -- I took this picture in 2007, and this is the same market in 2009 -- and I think, when the organizers of this conference were talking about radical openness, they didn't mean that the streets should be open and the people should be gone.
不过政府讨厌DIY经济系统, 这就是原因 -- 我在2007年照的这张照片, 这是2009年的同一个市场 -- 我觉得,当这个大会的组织者正在谈论 极度开放的时候, 他们没想着街道应该敞开 并且了无人迹。
I think what we have is a pickle problem. I had a friend who worked at a pickle factory, and the cucumbers would come flying down this conveyer belt, and his job was to pick off the ones that didn't look so good and throw them in the bin labeled "relish" where they'd be crushed and mixed with vinegar and used for other kinds of profit. This is the pickle economy. We're all focusing on — this is a statistic from earlier this month in the Financial Times — we're all focusing on the luxury economy. It's worth 1.5 trillion dollars every year, and that's a vast amount of money, right? That's three times the Gross Domestic Product of Switzerland. So it's vast. But it should come with an asterisk, and the asterisk is that it excludes two thirds of the workers of the world. 1.8 billion people around the world work in the economy that is unregulated and informal. That's a huge number, and what does that mean? Well, it means if it were united in a single political system, one country, call it "The United Street Sellers Republic," the U.S.S.R., or "Bazaaristan," it would be worth 10 trillion dollars every year, and that would make it the second largest economy in the world, after the United States. And given that projections are that the bulk of economic growth over the next 15 years will come from emerging economies in the developing world, it could easily overtake the United States and become the largest economy in the world.
我觉得我们在这里有个酸黄瓜的问题。 我有一个朋友在酸黄瓜工厂工作, 所有黄瓜都会经过一个传送带 他的工作是挑出 那些比较烂的黄瓜,把他们扔到桶里 桶上贴有"风味"的标签,这些黄瓜会被搅碎并和醋混合 然后拿出去卖了赚钱。 这就是酸黄瓜经济系统。 我们都在关心 -- 这是这个月早期 在金融时刊杂志上的一个数据 -- 我们都在关注奢侈品经济。 每年它等价于150亿美金 这算是一笔巨大的金额,对吧? 这个数字是瑞士GDP的三倍。 确实是很庞大的数字。不过这数应该打个星号, 这个星号注明这其中排除了全世界 三分之二的工人。 全世界18亿的人口工作于 这个未经管制的,非正式的经济系统。 这也是一个庞大的数字,而这意味着什么呢? 这意味着如果把它联合成一个单独的政治体系, 一个国家,管它叫做 “联合街道商家共和国”,简称U.S.S.R.(和前苏联同名), 或者“Bazaaristan(荒诞里斯坦)”, 它每年的生产价值有10千亿美元, 这将变成全世界第二大的经济系统 仅次于美国。 而根据预测 今后15年很大一部分的经济增长 都会从发展中世界的新兴经济体而来, 它可以轻而易举地取代美国 从而成为世界上最大的经济动脉。
So the implications of that are vast, because it means that this is where employment is — 1.8 billion people — and this is where we can create a more egalitarian world, because people are actually able to earn money and live and thrive, as Andrew Saboru did.
(这个经济体)影响深远,因为它意味着 所有的就业都将会在这里 -- 18亿人口 -- 在这里我们可以创建一个更加平等的世界, 因为人们都能够赚到钱,安居乐业 并繁荣起来,就跟Andrew Saboru做的一样。
Big businesses have recognized this, and what's fascinating about this slide, it's not that the guys can carry boxes on their heads and run around without dropping them off. it's that the Gala sausage roll is a product that's made by a global company called UAC foods that's active throughout Africa and the Middle East, but the Gala sausage roll is not sold in stores. UAC foods has recognized that it won't sell if it's in stores. It's only sold by a phalanx of street hawkers who run around the streets of Lagos at bus stations and in traffic jams and sell it as a snack, and it's been sold that way for 40 years. It's a business plan for a corporation.
大的商业机构已经看到了这一点, 这张幻灯片的有趣之处在于, 不是那些可以头顶箱子 并且在行走中保持箱子不掉的人。 而是Gala香肠卷是由 一家叫做UAC foods的全球性公司生产的 在非洲和中东地区都卖得很火 但Gala香肠卷却没在商店里上架。 UAC foods意识到一旦上架,就卖不出去了。 它仅仅是由一群街头小贩贩卖的 他们在Lagos穿街走巷,在公车站 在堵车的时候,把香肠卷当零食来卖, 而且已经用这种方式卖了40年了。 这是他们公司的营销计划,
And it's not just in Africa. Here's Mr. Clean looking amorously at all the other Procter & Gamble products, and Procter & Gamble, you know, the statistic always cited is that Wal-Mart is their largest customer, and it's true, as one store, Wal-Mart buys 15 percent, thus 15 percent of Procter & Gamble's business is with Wal-Mart, but their largest market segment is something that they call "high frequency stores," which is all these tiny kiosks and the lady in the canoe and all these other businesses that exist in System D, the informal economy, and Procter & Gamble makes 20 percent of its money from that market segment, and it's the only market segment that's growing. So Procter & Gamble says, "We don't care whether a store is incorporated or registered or anything like that. We want our products in that store."
而且不止在非洲是这样。 这是“清洁大叔”谄媚地看着 宝洁公司的其他产品, 保洁,大家都知道, 一个总被引用的数据是说沃尔玛 是他们最大的客户,的确是这样 单沃尔玛就购买了宝洁15%的产品 所以宝洁15%的生意是和沃尔玛谈的 但他们最大的市场段是他们称之为 “高频商店”的,也就是这些小摊子 那个划小木舟的妇女,所有那些生意 在D系统这个非正式的经济里, 宝洁20%的盈利 就是从这个市场段来的, 而且它还是唯一一个在成长的市场段。 所以宝洁公司就说,“我们不在乎一个商店 是否是公司,注册过或怎样。 我们就是要我们的商品在那儿上架。”
And then there's mobile phones. This is an ad for MTN, which is a South African multinational active in about 25 countries, and when they came into Nigeria — Nigeria is the big dog in Africa. One in seven Africans is a Nigerian, and so everyone wants in to the mobile phone market in Nigeria. And when MTN came in, they wanted to sell the mobile service like I get in the United States or like people get here in the U.K. or in Europe -- expensive monthly plans, you get a phone, you pay overages, you're killed with fees -- and their plan crashed and burned. And they went back to the drawing board, and they retooled, and they came up with another plan: We don't sell you the phone, we don't sell you the monthly plan. We only sell you airtime. And where's the airtime sold? It's sold at umbrella stands all over the streets, where people are unregistered, unlicensed, but MTN makes most of its profits, perhaps 90 percent of its profits, from selling through System D, the informal economy.
再说到手机 这是一个广告,给MTN做的 一个南非的跨国公司 覆盖范围约有25个国家, 当他们进驻尼日利亚时 -- 尼日利亚在非洲是举足轻重的。 在非洲每七个人中就有一个是尼日利亚人 所以所有人都想进入到尼日利亚的这个手机市场。 当MTN进入的时候, 他们想要像在美国一样销售移动业务 或者像是在英国,欧洲一样 -- 每月付多一点的钱,就能得到一部手机 但你得付超限租金, 而且费用还不少 -- 所以他们的计划很快就失败了。 然后他们回到画板上,重新规划 之后得出这么一个计划: 我们不卖给你手机, 我们也不卖给你月租套餐。 我们只卖通话时间。 那么通话时间在哪卖呢? 他们就在街上那些伞搁架上卖, 尽管人们都是没有登记,没有执照的 但MTN确实赚了一笔, 约占他们总盈利的90%吧, 就仅从这个D系统,这个非正式经济中得到盈利。
And where do the phones come from? Well, they come from here. This is in Guangzhou, China, and if you go upstairs in this rather sleepy looking electronics mall, you find the Guangzhou Dashatou second-hand trade center, and if you go in there, you follow the guys with the muscles who are carrying the boxes, and where are they going? They're going to Eddy in Lagos. Now, most of the phones there are not second-hand at all. The name is a misnomer. Most of them are pirated. They have the name brand on them, but they're not manufactured by the name brand.
那么那些手机是从哪儿来的呢? 其实,他们是从这里来的。这里是中国的广州 如果你走上楼去,走上这个看起来很萧条的 电子商城,你就到了广州的大沙头 二手交易中心, 如果你进去了,你就跟着那些肌肉佬 那些扛着箱子的,他们要去哪儿呢? 他们要去Lago的Eddy。 现在,那儿大部分的手机都不是二手的了。 那是名不符实的, 他们是盗版的。在手机上面有牌子的商标 但他们却不是那些正牌厂子组装的。
Now, are there downsides to that? Well, I guess. You know, China has no — (Laughter) — no intellectual property, right? Versace without the vowels. Zhuomani instead of Armani. S. Guuuci, and -- (Laughter) (Applause) All around the world this is how products are being distributed, so, for instance, in one street market on Rua 25 de Março in São Paulo, Brazil, you can buy fake designer glasses. You can buy cloned cologne. You can buy pirated DVDs, of course. You can buy New York Yankees caps in all sorts of unauthorized patterns. You can buy cuecas baratas, designer underwear that isn't really manufactured by a designer, and even pirated evangelical mixtapes. (Laughter)
那么,这种系统有什么缺陷吗? 啊,我觉得。你懂的,中国没有 -- (笑声) -- 知识产权,是吗? Versace (范思哲) 中间少了个元音。 Zhuomani,而不是 Armani S. Guuuci -- (笑声)(掌声) 在世界的各个地方,产品就是这样被 投入市场的,比如 在Rua 25 de Marco商业区的街上 在圣保罗,巴西, 你可以买到冒牌的名牌眼镜。 可以买到克隆的古龙香水。 可以买到盗版的DVD,这是肯定的。 还可以买到纽约洋基棒球队的棒球帽 印有各种未经授权的图案。 可以买到廉价的内衣,或者是名牌内衣 但不是名牌制造商生产的, 还甚至可以买到福音歌曲合集。(笑声)
Now, businesses tend to complain about this, and their, they, I don't want to take away from their entire validity of complaining about it, but I did ask a major sneaker manufacturer earlier this year what they thought about piracy, and they told me, "Well, you can't quote me on this, because if you quote me on this, I have to kill you," but they use piracy as market research. The sneaker manufacturer told me that if they find that Pumas are being pirated, or Adidas are being pirated and their sneakers aren't being pirated, they know they've done something wrong. (Laughter) So it's very important to them to track piracy exactly because of this, and the people who are buying, the pirates, are not their customers anyway, because their customers want the real deal.
正规企业大多会抱怨这些盗版仿冒, 他们的,我不想掩盖他们 抱怨的合理性, 但我今年曾问过一个大型帆布鞋生产商 他们是怎么看待盗版的, 他们告诉我,“怎么说呢,你可不能说是我说的, 如果你说了的话,我就得灭了你,” 他们把盗版当作市场调查 (的信息反馈)。 帆布鞋生产商告诉过我 如果他们发现Pumas被盗版了,或者Adidas 被盗版了,而他们自己的牌子却没被盗版 他们便知道他们肯定出问题了(笑声) 所以对于他们而言关注盗版很重要 正因为如此,还有那些购买者 那些盗版商,根本不是他们的消费群体, 因为他们的消费者要的是真材实料。
Now, there's another problem. This is a real street sign in Lagos, Nigeria. All of System D really doesn't pay taxes, right? And when I think about that, first of all I think that government is a social contract between the people and the government, and if the government isn't transparent, then the people aren't going to be transparent either, but also that we're blaming the little guy who doesn't pay his taxes, and we're not recognizing that everyone's fudging things all over the world, including some extremely respected businesses, and I'll give you one example. There was one company that paid 4,000 bribes in the first decade of this millennium, and a million dollars in bribes every business day, right? All over the world. And that company was the big German electronics giant Siemens. So this goes on in the formal economy as well as the informal economy, so it's wrong of us to blame — and I'm not singling out Siemens, I'm saying everyone does it. Okay?
现在还有一个问题。 在尼日利亚Lagos市的街头巷尾都有这一现象 所有的系统D确实不缴税,对吗? 当我考虑这个问题的时候,我首先想到的是 政府是一个人与人之间的社会契约 而政府,如果这个政府不够透明 那么它的人民也不会透明, 但我们通常会指责那些 偷税漏税的小人物,却忽视了 不管在世界的哪个地方,总有人在搪塞过关, 包括那些特别受尊重的企业, 我来举个例子, 有一个公司行贿了4000次 在这个世纪的头十年, 每个工作日的行贿数额约100万美元,对吗? 在全世界中。那个公司 正是德国的电子巨头西门子。 所以这种现象在正规的经济体系里存在 在非正规的经济体系里亦然, 所以是我们错怪了 -- 我不是单单 把西门子拎出来,我是说每个企业都这样。
I just want to end by saying that if Adam Smith had framed out a theory of the flea market instead of the free market, what would be some of the principles?
我只想这样收尾,如果亚当.史密斯 当初建立的是一个跳蚤市场的理论 而非自由市场的理论,那么最终的 准则是什么?
First, it would be to understand that it could be considered a cooperative, and this is a thought from the Brazilian legal scholar Roberto Mangabeira Unger. Cooperative development is a way forward.
首先要明白的一点是 市场将是合作制的,这是 巴西法律学者Roberto Mangabeira Unger的一个观点。 合作式的发展将是今后前进的方向。
Secondly, from the [Austrian] anarchist philosopher Paul Feyerabend, facts are relative, and what is a massive right of self-reliance to a Nigerian businessperson is considered unauthorized and horrible to other people, and we have to recognize that there are differences in how people define things and what their facts are.
其次,引用[奥地利]无政府主义哲学家Paul Feyerabend的观点, 事实是相对的,对于一个尼日利亚商人来说 是一个绝对正确的自我独立, 对他人来讲也许是不合法,甚至是骇人听闻的, 我们必须承认 人们定义问题的方式和所认为的事实是有出入的。
And third is, and I'm taking this from the great American beat poet Allen Ginsberg, that alternate economies barter and different kinds of currency, alternate currencies are also very important, and he talked about buying what he needed just with his good looks.
再者,借用 伟大的美国潦倒诗人Allen Ginsberg的想法, 不同的经济体间互相以物易物 而不同种类的货币 也很重要,他谈过 用他的容貌来买他需要的。
And so I just want to leave you there, and say that this economy is a tremendous force for global development and we need to think about it that way. Thank you very much. (Applause) (Applause)
所以我想在这里结束, 这个经济体是一个全球发展的强大生力军 我们需要这么思考。 非常感谢。(掌声) (掌声)