The following statement is utterly ludicrous. It is also true. The world's most important advanced technology is nearly all produced in a single facility. What's more, that facility is located in one of the most geopolitically fraught areas on Earth, an area in which many analysts believe that war is inevitable within the decade. The future of artificial intelligence hangs in the balance.
以下陳述荒謬至極, 同時也是事實。 全球最重要的先進科技 幾乎全由一家公司生產。 更重要的是, 該公司位於全球地緣政治 最為敏感的地區之一, 許多分析師認為,十年內 該地區必然會發生戰爭。 人工智慧的未來難以預料。
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, makes all of the world's most-advanced AI chips. This includes Nvidia's GPUs, Google's TPUs, AMD's GPUs, the AI chips for Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Cerebrus, SambaNova and every other credible competitor. Modern artificial intelligence simply would not be possible without these highly specialized chips. Little wonder, then, that Time magazine recently described TSMC as, "The world's most important company that you've probably never heard of." Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang put it more colorfully, saying, “Basically, there is air ... and TSMC.”
台灣積體電路製造公司(TSMC) 生產全球所有最先進的人工智慧晶片。 這包括輝達的 GPU、 谷歌的 TPU、超微的 GPU、 微軟、亞馬遜、特斯拉、 Cerebrus、SambaNova 和每個值得一提的 競爭對手的人工智慧晶片。 如果沒有這些高度專業化的晶片, 現代人工智慧根本不可能實現。 難怪 《時代》雜誌最近將台積電描述為 「全球最重要的公司, 但你可能從未聽說過」。 輝達執行長黃仁勳說得更生動, 他說:「基本上,有空氣… 還有台積電。」
(Laughter)
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TSMC's chip fabrication facilities, or fabs, the buildings where chips are physically built, is located on the western coast of Taiwan, a mere 110 miles from mainland China. In this map, Taiwan is shown in orange and China is shown in green. Today, China and Taiwan are nearer to the brink of war than they have been in decades. Many policymakers in Washington predict that China will invade Taiwan within the next five years. A China-Taiwan conflict would be devastating for many reasons. Aside from the heavy human toll, one underappreciated consequence is that it would paralyze the global AI ecosystem. Put simply, the entire field of artificial intelligence faces an astonishingly precarious single point of failure in Taiwan.
台積電的晶片製造設施,或稱晶圓廠, 即實際製造晶片的建築物, 位於台灣西海岸, 距離中國大陸僅 177 公里。 在這張地圖裏,台灣以橘色顯示, 中國以綠色顯示。 現今,中國大陸和台灣 處於幾十年來最接近戰爭的邊緣。 華盛頓的許多決策者預測 中國將在未來五年內入侵台灣。 中國和台灣的衝突會有災難性後果, 原因有很多。 除了嚴重的傷亡之外, 一個被低估的後果是 這將使全球人工智慧 生態系統陷入癱瘓。 簡而言之,整個人工智慧領域 面臨台灣這個異常脆弱的 單點故障危機。
Amid all of the fervor around AI today, this fact is not widely enough appreciated. If you are working on or are interested in AI, you need to be paying attention. How did we get here and what can we do about it?
在當今人工智慧的熱潮中, 這一事實並未得到足夠的廣泛重視。 如果你正在研究人工智慧 或對人工智慧感興趣, 你就要密切關注。 我們是如何走到這一步的? 我們能做些什麼?
Let's start with a brief, whirlwind overview of the chip industry. Semiconductors, or chips, are the most complex object in the world that humanity knows how to mass-produce. Making semiconductors requires the world's purest metals, the world's most expensive machinery, legions of highly specialized engineers and atom-level manufacturing precision.
我們先對晶片產業做個簡短的概述。 半導體或晶片是世界上人類知道 如何大規模生產的最複雜的物體。 製造半導體需要世界上最純粹的金屬、 世界上最昂貴的機械、 大批高度專業的工程師 和原子級的製造精度。
It is important to distinguish between two different types of chip companies. First, fabless chip makers, which design but do not manufacture their own chips. And second, foundries, which manufacture chips designed by other companies. Almost every well-known chip company today is fabless, from Nvidia to AMD to Qualcomm. These companies do not produce their own chips. Instead, they design chips, and then they rely on foundries like TSMC to actually manufacture those chips for them. There are only three companies in the world today that are capable of manufacturing chips anywhere near the leading edge of semiconductor technology: TSMC, Samsung and Intel. Of those three, only one can reliably produce the world's most advanced AI chips, including chips like Nvidia's H100 GPUs. That one company is TSMC.
必須知道,有兩種 不同類型的晶片公司。 首先是無晶圓廠晶片製造商, 他們設計但不製造自己的晶片。 其次是代工廠, 生產其他公司設計的晶片。 如今幾乎所有知名晶片公司 都沒有晶圓廠, 如輝達 、超微和高通。 這些公司不生產自己的晶片, 而是設計晶片, 然後仰賴台積電等代工廠 為他們製造這些晶片。 當今,世界上只有三家公司 有能力製造半導體尖端技術的晶片: 台積電、三星和英特爾。 在這三者中, 只有一家能夠可靠地生產 全球最先進的人工智慧晶片, 包括輝達的 H100 GPU 等晶片。 那家公司就是台積電。
As of this morning, TSMC's market capitalization was 470 billion dollars, making it the 13th-largest company in the world, larger than ExxonMobil, JPMorgan Chase or Walmart. How has TSMC become such a dominant force? The short answer is that powerful economies of scale exist in the world of chip fabrication, leading inexorably to winner-take-all dynamics. Making advanced semiconductors requires tremendous upfront and ongoing capital expenditure. In 2021, TSMC announced that it would invest 100 billion dollars over the next three years to continue expanding its fabrication capabilities. No other company in the world can justify that level of investment. TSMC can, because of the sheer volume of chips that it produces, far more than any other company in the world.
截至今天上午, 台積電市值為 4,700 億美元, 是全球第 13 大公司, 超越埃克森美孚、 摩根大通或沃爾瑪。 台積電是如何成為如此主導的力量? 簡而言之,晶片製造領域 受制強大的規模經濟, 不可避免地導致贏家通吃的局面。 製造先進半導體 需要大量的前期和持續的資本支出。 2021 年,台積電宣布 未來三年將投資一千億美元, 繼續擴大製造能力。 全球沒有其他公司 可以宣稱這樣的投資規模合理。 台積電可以,因為它生產的晶片數量 遠遠超過世界上任何其他公司。
A related dynamic that helps explain TSMC's unassailable position is what has come to be known as the TSMC Grand Alliance. TSMC has invested heavily over decades to develop deep partnerships with dozens of companies across the semiconductor supply chain, from software providers like Cadence to equipment manufacturers like ASML to chip designers like Nvidia. In turn, these companies have developed their own products in accordance with TSMC's road map, leading to powerful lock-in. In summary, a combination of economies of scale, network effects, and unrivaled specialization have made TSMC irreplaceable and have made the entire world deeply, precariously dependent upon it.
另一個可解釋台積電 無可爭議地位的動因 就是所謂的台積電大聯盟。 幾十年來,台積電投入巨資, 與半導體供應鏈上的數十家公司 建立了深厚的合作夥伴關係, 如益華電腦等軟體供應商, 艾司摩爾等設備製造商, 以及輝達等晶片設計商。 同樣,這些公司也依照台積電的路線, 開發了自己的產品, 從而形成強大的鎖定效應。 總而言之,規模經濟、網絡效應 和無與倫比的專業化相結合, 讓台積電變得不可替代, 並使整個世界深深地、 卻不牢靠地依賴著它。
This brings us to the present, delicate geopolitical moment. Last October, the Biden administration took the dramatic step of banning the export of all high-end AI chips to any entity in China. The rationale behind these measures was clear. To leverage US control of the global semiconductor supply chain as a choke point to handicap China's AI capabilities. The US government is currently formulating expansions to this policy.
接著我們來談談當前 微妙的地緣政治狀況。 去年 10 月, 拜登政府採取了戲劇性的一步, 禁止向中國任何實體 出口所有高階人工智慧晶片。 這些措施背後的理由很明確。 利用美國對全球半導體供應鏈的控制, 作為阻礙中國人工智慧能力的瓶頸。 美國政府目前正在擬定 擴大這項政策的方案。
At the same time, the US is taking steps to reduce its reliance on chip fabrication facilities located in East Asia. In late 2022, TSMC announced that it would invest 40 billion dollars to build two new state-of-the-art fabs in the United States, in Arizona. The first of these two fabs is slated to begin production in 2025. Bringing advanced chip production to US soil will help mitigate the AI industry's absolute dependence on Taiwan-based fabs. But the Arizona fabs will not solve everything. Their production capacity will be modest, representing less than five percent of TSMC's total global output. And the most advanced semiconductor production capabilities and technologies will remain in Taiwan.
同時,美國也採取措施, 減少對東亞晶片製造設施的依賴。 2022 年底, 台積電宣布投資 400 億美元 在美國亞利桑那州 新建兩座最先進的晶圓廠。 這兩座工廠中的第一座預計 將於 2025 年開始生產。 把先進的晶片生產帶到美國本土, 將有助於減輕人工智慧產業 對台灣晶圓廠的完全依賴。 但亞利桑那州的晶圓廠 並不能解決所有問題。 它們的產能不大, 僅佔台積電全球總產量的不到 5%。 而最先進的半導體生產能力 和技術仍將留在台灣。
So where might things go from here? Let's briefly consider a few possibilities on this three-dimensional chessboard. Let's start with optimistic scenario. Taiwan's central role in the global semiconductor industry is often referred to as its “silicon shield.” The basic theory is this: because China depends so heavily on Taiwan for the chips that it needs to keep its own economy running, China will stop short of invading Taiwan and putting TSMC's production at risk. And because the rest of the world is likewise so dependent on TSMC, the United States and other powers will go to great lengths to protect the island and defend its sovereignty. Under this theory, while China may continue to build out its military and engage in cross-strait saber-rattling, it will stop short of kinetic action against Taiwan.
那麼,未來事態會如何發展呢? 讓我們簡略考量一下 這個三維棋盤上的幾個可能性。 讓我們從樂觀的情況開始。 台灣在全球半導體產業中的核心角色 通常被稱為「矽盾」。 基本理論是這樣的: 由於中國重度依賴台灣提供晶片, 以維持其經濟運作, 因此中國不會入侵台灣, 並使台積電的生產面臨風險。 而且,由於世界其他國家 同樣如此依賴台積電, 美國和其他大國將不遺餘力地 保護台灣,並捍衛其主權。 根據這個理論, 中國也許會繼續擴增軍隊, 並在兩岸進行武力威脅, 但不會對台灣採取實質的行動。
But the silicon shield is just a theory, not a guarantee. What would happen if China were to move decisively to retake Taiwan? TSMC's fabs would almost certainly be rendered inoperative. It is conceivable that the Taiwanese, or even the US military, would preemptively destroy the fabs in order to prevent the CCP from taking control of this valuable strategic resource. Even if the physical buildings were to remain undamaged after a Chinese invasion, it is unrealistic that the CCP would be able to continue operating the fabs to produce cutting-edge chips. Keeping leading edge fabs running requires ongoing and deep partnership with organizations across the global semiconductor ecosystem, as well as a steady inflow of materials, equipment and services. These would be denied to an invading power.
但矽盾只是一個理論, 絕非保證。 如果中國斷然採取行動奪取台灣, 會發生什麼情況呢? 台積電的晶圓廠幾乎肯定會停產。 可以想像,台灣,甚至美軍, 會先發制人地摧毀晶圓廠, 以阻止中共控制這寶貴的戰略資源。 即使實體建築在中國入侵後完好無損, 中共也無法讓這些晶圓廠 繼續運作,生產尖端晶片。 要讓這些尖端晶圓廠運轉, 需要與全球半導體生態系統的各個組織 進行持續而深入的合作, 還需要穩定的材料、設備和服務供應。 以上這些,侵略者將無法取得。
Let me say this one more time: if or when China invades Taiwan, TSMC's fabs will, in all likelihood, go offline. This will mean that no more Nvidia H100s or any other cutting-edge AI chips will be able to be produced anywhere in the world.
我再說一遍, 如果中國入侵台灣, 台積電的晶圓廠很有可能停擺。 這將意味著全球沒有任何公司 可以生產輝達 H100 或其他尖端人工智慧晶片。
What would this mean for the world of AI? After TSMC, the company best positioned to step up and produce cutting-edge AI chips is Samsung. Samsung is currently the only company in the world, other than TSMC, that is capable of producing three-nanometer chips, today's cutting-edge technology. But Samsung's production capabilities are far inferior to TSMC's today. In a best-case scenario, it would take Samsung years to scale up to TSMC's current AI chip yields and volumes.
這對人工智慧世界意味著什麼? 台積電之外, 最有能力接手生產 尖端人工智慧晶片的公司是三星。 除台積電之外,三星是目前 全球唯一能夠生產當今尖端技術 三奈米晶片的公司。 但三星的生產能力 遠不如現在的台積電。 在最好的情况下, 三星也還需要數年時間 才能達到台積電目前的 人工智慧晶片良率和產量。
This brings us to America's former chip champion, Intel. It was hardly a decade ago that Intel's chip-manufacturing capabilities were the envy of the world. But in recent years, Intel has fallen behind. The company struggled mightily in its transition to both ten-nanometer and seven-nanometer node technologies, even resorting to outsourcing some of its leading edge production to TSMC. Under CEO Pat Gelsinger, Intel aspires to regain its chipmaking supremacy with an ambitious plan to leapfrog TSMC and begin producing two-nanometer chips in 2024. Whether this ambitious plan will actually prove achievable, however, remains to be seen.
那,美國之前的晶片霸主英特爾呢? 僅僅十年前, 英特爾的晶片製造能力曾令全球稱羨。 但近年來,英特爾已經落後。 該公司在 10 奈米和 7 奈米 節點技術過渡的過程中 遇到了巨大的困難, 甚至不得不将部分 尖端生產外包給台積電。 在執行長帕特·蓋爾辛格的領導下, 英特爾渴望重新奪回 晶片製造霸主地位, 並製定了一項雄心勃勃的計劃, 計劃超越台積電, 將在 2024 年開始生產二奈米晶片。 然而,這項雄心勃勃的計劃 是否能夠真正實現, 還有待觀察。
Before we despair too much, let us note a couple encouraging points. First, keep in mind that a considerable stock of AI chips already exists in the world. And even in a worst-case scenario, these chips would remain in use.
在過於絕望之前, 我們來關注幾件令人鼓舞的事。 首先,請記住,全球已有 大量的人工智慧晶片庫存。 即使在最壞的情況下, 這些晶片也能繼續使用。
Second, while the most advanced AI chips, like Google’s TPUs or Nvidia’s H100s, can only be manufactured in Taiwan, there are many fabs around the world, from the US to Europe to Israel, that are capable of producing lagging-edge logic chips at scale. Though they are far less powerful than today's leading AI chips, these previous-generation chips could be used in a pinch to support some AI computing workloads.
其次,雖然最先進的人工智慧晶片, 如谷歌的 TPU 或輝達的 H100, 只能在台灣製造, 但世界各地有許多晶圓廠, 從美國、歐洲、到以色列, 有能力大規模生產落後的邏輯晶片。 儘管它們的功能遠不如 當今尖端人工智慧晶片強大, 但這些上一代晶片可以在緊要關頭 用於支援某些人工智慧運算負載。
Ultimately, though, it would be devastating for humanity to lose its ability to produce the chips that power today's cutting-edge artificial intelligence. Progress in AI would be profoundly disrupted. Let us hope that diplomacy prevails.
然而,最終,如果我們無法生產 驅動當今尖端人工智慧的晶片, 將對人類產生毀滅性影響。 人工智慧的進步將受到嚴重干擾。 讓我們期昐外交取得勝利。
(Applause)
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