The recent debate over copyright laws like SOPA in the United States and the ACTA agreement in Europe has been very emotional. And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning could really bring a great deal to the debate. I'd therefore like to propose that we employ, we enlist, the cutting edge field of copyright math whenever we approach this subject.
最近广为争论的版权法 像美国的SOPA禁止网络盗版法案 (Stop Online Piracy Act) 和欧洲的ACTA反仿冒贸易协定(Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement) 都有些感情用事 而且,我觉得引入客观、定量的数据推理 会对版权法的争论很有帮助 所以,我想说 我们要充分利用 这个前沿领域:Copyright Math版权数学 无论何时谈到有关版权法这个话题
For instance, just recently the Motion Picture Association revealed that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year to copyright theft. Now rather than just argue about this number, a copyright mathematician will analyze it and he'll soon discover that this money could stretch from this auditorium all the way across Ocean Boulevard to the Westin, and then to Mars ... (Laughter) ... if we use pennies.
比如说,就在最近 美国电影协会声明 盗版一年给我们的经济造成 的损失有580亿美元 与其对这个数字进行争论, 版权数学家会分析这个数字 他很快就会发现这笔钱 可以从这个礼堂 一直堆到海洋大道... 再到威斯汀酒店...然后到火星... (笑声) 当然,如果我们用1分硬币来摆这些钱的话
Now this is obviously a powerful, some might say dangerously powerful, insight. But it's also a morally important one. Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value of some pirated movies that we're talking about, but this is actual economic losses. This is the equivalent to the entire American corn crop failing along with all of our fruit crops, as well as wheat, tobacco, rice, sorghum -- whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
现在看看,这明显是一个强大的 有些人甚至会说是极端强大的说法 但这同时也是一个具有重要道德意义的说法。 因为这可不是 我们常常说到的一些盗版电影的预期零售价 而是真正的经济损失 这相当于 整个美国玉米种植量的损失 还有我们所有的水果作物 还有麦子,烟草 大米和高粱- 管它是什么高粱——反正我们是损失了的高粱
But identifying the actual losses to the economy is almost impossible to do unless we use copyright math. Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year since Napster first came on the scene. So that's a chunk of what we're looking for. But total movie revenues across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up. And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up. Other content markets like book publishing and radio are also up. So this small missing chunk here is puzzling.
但衡量经济上的实际损失 几乎是不可能做到的 除非我们用版权数学法 自从纳普斯特Napster出现之后 现在音乐产业的收入每年都下降80亿元 所以这一块就是我们要研究的 但是整个电影行业的收入 包括剧院,家庭影院以及点播购买电视节目的收入在上升 还有电视,卫星电视和有线电视的收入上升了很多 其它内容传播市场,像书籍出版和广播 的收入也在上升 所以少的这一块 很让人莫名其妙
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Since the big content markets have grown in line with historic norms, it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented, but copyright math tells us it must therefore be foregone growth in a market that has no historic norms -- one that didn't exist in the 90's. What we're looking at here is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy. (Laughter) 50 billion dollars of it a year, which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone, that could stretch from here to Neanderthal times. (Laughter) It's true. (Applause) I have Excel.
由于总体的内容传播市场的收入 依照着过去的标准还在增长 盗版行为并没有阻止它们的继续增长 但是版权数学法告诉我们 这一定是因为在一个没有历史记录的市场中 有某种预料之外的增长 这个市场在1990年代并不存在 我们正在看的 是电话铃声侵权的潜在成本 (笑声) 500亿美元一年 这已经不少了,一个铃声30秒 可以从这里一直延伸到 尼安德特人的时代 (笑声) 这是真的 (掌声) 我可有Excel表格作证
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The movie folks also tell us that our economy loses over 370,000 jobs to content theft, which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the motion picture and video industries were employing 270,000 people. Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people. And so the job losses that came with the Internet and all that content theft, have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries. And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day. And some people think that string theory is tough.
电影行业的人还告诉我们 我们的经济损失中 有超过37,0000的失业是源于内容传播的侵权 如果把这个数字放到1998年,这已经不少了 美国劳工统计局表明 美国电影协会和视频行业 雇佣了27,0000名员工 其它数据显示音乐行业有大概4,5000人 而随着网络带来的失业 以及所有的内容传播侵权 给我们的内容市场造成了一个负就业 这是众多让人崩溃的统计数字之一 版权数学家每天要对付这些数据 可有些人觉得弦理论很难
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Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit. It's the precise amount of harm that comes to media companies whenever a single copyrighted song or movie gets pirated. Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages and made this law. Some people think this number's a little bit large, but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts are merely surprised that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
这是版权数学家工具箱里的一个关键数字 它是每当一个歌曲或电影 被侵权后 给一个传媒公司所带来伤害的 准确数字 好莱坞和国会在讨论减少版权损失 和制定版权法的时候 用数学方法计算出这个数字 有些人觉得这数字太大了 但是作为传媒界游说专家的版权数学家们 只是惊讶 为什么这个数字不会随着通货膨胀而增长
Now when this law first passed, the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs. And it was a big Christmas hit. Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
在这项法律通过的时候 全球最热销的MP3播放器也只能存10首歌 而且是圣诞节重磅推出 因为小流氓不会把 一个偷来的价值100多万的东西放在兜里
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These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs, which is to say eight billion dollars-worth of stolen media. (Applause) Or about 75,000 jobs.
如今 一个iPod Classic随身听可以存4,0000首歌 也就是说,相当于价值80亿美元 的盗版音乐。 (掌声) 也相当于7,5000个工作岗位。
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Now you might find copyright math strange, but that's because it's a field that's best left to experts. So that's it for now. I hope you'll join me next time when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
也许,你现在觉得版权数学很奇怪 但这是因为它是一个 最适合专家进行研究的领域 今天就先说这么多 我希望,下次 当我再对国外盗版音乐对美国经济的损失做一个 比较科学、以事实为依据的调查时,你们还来听我说
Thank you very much.
非常感谢
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Thank you.
谢谢
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